Decarbonising Europe: The Future of Energy & Water
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Transcript of Decarbonising Europe: The Future of Energy & Water
360 Degree Perspective of the Global Energy & Environment Industry
Decarbonising Europe: The Future of Energy & Water
London
May 2011
2
Growth Opportunities in a Complex Business Universe
3
Agenda
1. Energy & Water Management are True Megatrends of the 21st Century
2. Top 10 Markets to Watch
3. The Technology Perspective …. Smart Technology Re-Defining
Competition
4. The Global Perspective …. ‘Water’ is Emerging as a Major Energy
Efficiency Segment
5. The Customer Perspective …. Energy Efficiency at Point of Use
6. Opportunity Discussion
4
Energy & Water Management are True Megatrends of the 21st Century
5
The ‘Simple’ Challenge .... Balancing 3 Issues
GlobalEnergy
DemandEnvironment
Fuel Supply and Costs
6
The ‘Simple’ Challenge .... Balancing 3 Issues
GlobalEnergy
DemandEnvironment
Fuel Supply and Costs
Technology Innovation
Connectivity& Integration
Efficiency of Usage
7
1970 19901980
Fuel Supply/Cost
Trends
Major Issue
Global EnergyDemand
Evolution of Market Issues
EU Directive for air-quality standards and smoke
2000 2010
Heightened public objection to emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions allowance
trading scheme
Major strikes in UK as coal production
is cut
Chernobyl disaster challenges nuclear
safety
Emergence of major capacity gaps
across Europe & NA
First wave of Nuclear
Production outages in North Sea
Fears over security of gas supplies from
e.g Russia
EnvironmentIssues
Extremely cold weather in Europe increases demand
and oil prices
Libya nationalises British Petroleum concession & Iraq
follows soon
Acceleration of oil prices
Windfall profits tax enacted and later reduced
‘Dash for Gas’
German government announces plans to phase
out nuclear power
Adoption of EU Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD)
Global water Stress
Prices rise as oil embargo begins
Oil embargo ends
20: 20: 20 EU vision for
renewables
US boom followed by
crash
China boom
2011:• Security of Energy Supply• Portfolio Diversification• Energy Efficiency• Capacity Optimisation• Integration of Renewables• Sustainable Water
2011:• Security of Energy Supply• Portfolio Diversification• Energy Efficiency• Capacity Optimisation• Integration of Renewables• Sustainable Water
8
2010 20202015
Fuel SupplyAnd Costs
Major Issue
Global EnergyDemand
Timeline for Major Market Issues (and one big conclusion)
China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest emitter
of CO2
2025 2030
Global Energy Demandalmost double 2000 levels
Growth dominatedBy India & China
GlobalCO2 Emissions
reach 40 Gt
20% RenewableEnergy in Europe
Demand for liquid fuel falling after 2015
Stationary fuel cellscontribute to
distributed generation
Accelerated investmentin carbon capture
and storage
Electricity generation passes 30,000 billion kWh
Continued accelerationof coal-fired power
Acceleration ofNatural gas
Coal reachesAlmost 40% of energy
Consumption, following growth in India and China
Global Electricity
Generation(billion kWhr)
Source: Frost & Sullivan and EIA.
10,000
EnvironmentIssues
20,000
30,000
0
ResurgenceOf Nuclear
Oil passes$100 per
barrel
Growth of natural gaskept in check by high
gas prices
Deceleration andmaturation of EU
Long-runningboom in Russia
2010 20202015 2025
Growth Resumedin all regions
Developing economiespass 40% of electricity
demand
Oil dropsTo $35 per
barrel
Global RenewablesGrowth
Potable waterconsumption up
50% on 1995
Boom in RODesalination
Energy from Waste in Emerging
Markets
9
Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan
Growth in Electricity Generation by Fuel
Global Electricity Generation Forecast in TWh (World), 2010-2030)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Other renewables
Electricity Generation Average Annual Growth Rates by Technology (World), 2010-2030
2.3%
-3.5%
2.8%
2.9%
2.6%
12.8%
8.2%
2.7%
0.6%
-2.8%
1.9%
2.2%
1.8%
6.1%
8.3%
1.8%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Other renewables
Total
2010-20 2020-30
10
Share of Fossil–Based Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2010
Share of Fossil–Based Electricity Generation by Region (World), 2020
Source : International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan
*Carbon-Free includes nuclear and all renewable energy sources
46%61%
91%
70%60%
27%
62% 67%77%
58% 58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Carbon-Free Fossil
52%67%
97%81%
65%
32%
80% 82% 84%66% 67%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Carbon-Free Fossil
Fossil Fuel Dominance to 2020 and Beyond
11
De-Carbonising .... Challenges & Opportunities
Issues & Challenges:
• Green investment is too often not price competitive
• Too many markets remain beholden to incentives & grants
• Regulations cover the ‘What’ and not so much the ‘How’
Opportunities:
• When the issues go beyond green
• Where the added value becomes truly tangible
• When secure financing is available
• When there is a real RoI
• .... When the risk for the customer is low.
12
Outlook for the Environment & Energy Industry Top 10 Technologies and Markets to Watch For in 2020
Energy Recovery from Waste
Energy Recovery from Waste
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
SMART BuildingsSMART
Buildings
LED Lighting Revolution
LED Lighting Revolution
Water Re-Use & Desalination
Water Re-Use & Desalination
Top 10 Markets of the Future
Top 10 Markets of the Future
Key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI.
Key technology platforms that are poised to have a profound impact on a number of sectors across the globe. These areas present a potential high ROI.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
SMART Grid/ SMART EnergySMART Grid/
SMART Energy
Advanced Batteries and Energy StorageAdvanced Batteries and Energy Storage
Fuel CellsFuel Cells
Solar PVSolar PV
Carbon Capture and Storage
Carbon Capture and Storage
13
The Technology Perspective …. Smart Technology Re-Defining Competition
14
Smart Concepts and the Key Enablers for Growth
Building
UtilitySystem
OtherBuildings• Fully automated
‘digital’ buildings• Continuous 2-way communication• Micro-generation• Demand response• Smart materials• Fully integrated building controls
Key Features
• Open architecture• Advanced building design• Software tools• Analysis & reporting• Connectivity of devices• Networks of ubiquitous sensors
Growth Enablers
Smart Building
Smart Grid
SmartCity
• Inter-connectivity between buildings and communities• Virtual consumers• Shared efficiency gains• Smart service delivery (safety, health, education etc.)
Key Features
• IP networks and affordable broadband• Real-time network visualisation• Inter-connected advanced metering infrastructure• Buy-in from city leaders
Growth Enablers
• Optimised use of capacity• Advanced metering infrastructure• Integrating renewables• Digital intelligence• Remote control• Micro grids• Virtual power plants
Key Features
• Smart metering• Drive from utilities• Regulation• Energy price signals• Energy storage• Integrated communications• Sensing & measurement
Growth Enablers
1
2
3
Source: Frost & Sullivan.Source: Frost & Sullivan.
15
ChinaNorth
AmericaEurope
Key Market Drivers and Impact by Region
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Growth in Electric Vehicles
Low High1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
Power Demand
Exceeding Supply Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
Grid Infrastructure NeedsLow High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
Downstream Energy Efficiency
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
Integration of Renewable Energy Sources
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
Demand Response Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
Low High
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
1 52 3 4
Smart Grid Drivers
16
Convergence of Technology Leads to Convergence of Competition
IT Players Automation/Building Control Players
Energy/InfrastructurePlayers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.Source: Frost & Sullivan.
• IP Networks• Digital Technology• Analysis Software• Wireless Communication• Technology Integration• Network Security• Etc.
• T&D Technology• Power Electronics• Renewable Energy• Integrated Distribution Management• Substation Automation• AMI-Enabled Metering• Etc.
• Building Automation• Demand-Side Management• Connectivity of devices• Monitoring and Sensing• Smart Grid Integration• Etc.
17
Emergence of Tier 1 Integrated Solution Providers
IT Players Automation/Building Control Players
Energy/InfrastructurePlayers
Tier 1 Integrated Solution Providers.
Source: Frost & Sullivan.Source: Frost & Sullivan.
18
Tier 1 Players are Evolving ... Partnerships are Changing
Hardware
Process
Technology
Source: Frost & Sullivan.Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Arrow indicates current strategic direction.
19
The Global Perspective …. ‘Water’ is Emerging as a Major Energy Efficiency Segment
20
Rapid Population Growth & Urbanisation
Water StressStorm/Flood
water Management
Material Resource & Energy Recovery
Carbon Footprint
Water Quality & Public Health
Water reuse and Recycling
Social
Ecological
Economical
Water Supply & Sanitation Needs of Remote Communities
Aquatic biodiversity & Habitats
International AgenciesRegional/National Environment
Protection Agencies
Political &
Financial Business & Financial Agencies
Sustainable Water Management SolutionsDrivers of De-Carbonisation
Water TariffsNon Revenue Water
21
Sustainable Water Treatment Solutions
Technology Roadmap
1980 20001990
Evolution of Water Management Technologies and Solutions
2010 2020
MembraneTechnology
ServiceOutsourcing
Thermal Desalination
Water & WastewaterTreatment
WaterManagement
Re-Use & Recycling
AdvancedWW Treatment
(ex. Nutrient removal)
Inte
grat
ed W
ater
Man
agem
ent &
S
ervi
ces
TurnkeySolutions
Material, Resource & Energy Recovery
Bio SolidsManagement
WorldwideSanitation
Treatment Systems for Small Communities
Retrofit, Replacement & Upgrading
Developing Countries
Ballast Water Treatment
Low-Carbon Solutions & Services
Chemical free treatment
RO Desalination
Storm water Management
Water Re-Use& Recycling
Smart Water Solutions
22
Water Usage Inherently Linked to Power Generation
COAL NATURAL GAS NUCLEAR
Source: Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency
23
Example – Water Demand Forecasts in Coal Powered Plants by Regions
North America European Union Eastern Europe & CIS Rest of Asia
Latin America Middle East & Africa India China
2007 2020
Coal Fired Generation(TWh)
WaterDemandBillionGallons
33 108
2007 2020 2007 2020
304 358
20202007
537 1,023
20202007
2,685 4,524
16 54152 179 268 511 1342 2262
WaterDemand(BillionGallons)
Coal Fired Generation(TWh)
2,266 2,253
1133 1126
1,024 870
512 435
400 472
200 236
835
568417
1,136
2007 2007 2007 20072020 2020 2020 2020
Source : Frost & Sullivan / International Energy Agency
24
Illustration Source: BioMinE- Biotechnologies for Metal bearings materials in Europe, 2008, IC© Reactor Paques and Metcalf & Eddy, Wastewater Engineering: Treatment Disposal and Reuse, 1991
A B CD E F
1.UASB-based technologies
A. Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket
(UASB) B. Expanded Granular Sludge
Bed (EGSB) C. Internal Circulation
reactor (IC©)GasGas
..... .. .. ... .....
Gas
2. Continually Stirred Tank
Reactor (CSTR)/ Completely
Mixed Anaerobic Digestion
3. Other technologies (including new developments):
D. Anaerobic Filters (AF) or Packed Bed Reactors
(PBR) E. Anaerobic Hybrid Reactor (AHR)
F. Anaerobic Baffled Reactor (ABR)
Anaerobic Digester Technologies:
Energy Generation from Industrial Wastewater Treatment: Technology Segmentation (World), 2010
25
Energy Generation from Industrial Wastewater Treatment: Revenue Growth by Region (World), 2010 and 2016
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
26
The Customer Perspective …. Energy Efficiency at Point of Use
27
Energy Efficiency and Buildings:Technology and Growth Roadmap
1980 20001990
Evolution of Building Technology Markets
2010 2020
SystemsIntegration
BuildingManagement& Control
BuildingAutomation
GreenBuildings
ITConvergenceFunctional
Controllers
HomeAutomation
Building Control
Building Automation
Smart Buildings
EnergyControl
Construction& OperationalEfficiency
Building Performance
IntegratedNetworking
EnergyManagement
EnhancedManagement
IntelligentBuildingsHVAC Control
IntelligentGreenBuildings
2011
SecurityConvergence
SmartTowns
Low EnergyLighting
Micro-Renewables
Micro-Generation
SmartGrids
How the movers & shakers are positioning themselves …
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
LED Lighting
28
Emergence of Micro-Renewables
1980 20001990
Evolution of Building Technology Markets
2010 2020
Building Control
Building Automation
Smart Buildings
Building Performance
1980 20001990 2010 2020
Emergence of Micro-
Renewables BIPV
Micro-Wind
Solar PV
SolarThermal
Biomass
Small-ScaleHydro
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Fuel Cells
HeatPumps
MicroCHP
SystemsIntegration
BuildingManagement& Control
BuildingAutomation
GreenBuildings
ITConvergenceFunctional
Controllers
HomeAutomation
Construction& OperationalEfficiency
IntegratedNetworking
EnergyManagement
EnhancedManagement
IntelligentBuildingsHVAC Control
IntelligentGreenBuildings
SecurityConvergence
SmartTowns
Low EnergyLighting
Micro-Renewables
Micro-Generation
SmartGrids
LED Lighting
29
CAGR(2008-2015)
Heat Pumps
Level of Direct Competition with Traditional HVAC
Technologies
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Note: Size of bubble indicates Market Size in 2008.
Solar Thermal
Biomass Boilers
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
BIPV
Micro-Generation v Renewable HeatingComparison of Growth Prospects
Micro-Renewables Market: Comparison of Major Market Segments (Europe), 2009
Renewable HeatingTechnologies
Micro-GenerationTechnologies
Micro-CHP
Micro-Wind
Small Hydro
30
Heat Pumps BiomassBIPVSolar Thermal Micro-CHP
Leading Players in Key Current Opportunity Areas
31
LED Lighting .... Transforming an Industry within 10 years
1980 20001990
Evolution of Building Technology Markets
2010 2020
Building Control
Building Automation
Smart Buildings
Building Performance
1980 20001990 2010 2020
3% Penetration of Global Lighting
Growth in Non-Lighting
Applications
Specialist Lighting
Applications
Mass Market Low Quality Applications
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Automotive Lighting
SystemsIntegration
BuildingManagement& Control
BuildingAutomation
GreenBuildings
ITConvergenceFunctional
Controllers
HomeAutomation
Construction& OperationalEfficiency
IntegratedNetworking
EnergyManagement
EnhancedManagement
IntelligentBuildingsHVAC Control
IntelligentGreenBuildings
SecurityConvergence
SmartTowns
Low EnergyLighting
Micro-Renewables
Micro-Generation
SmartGrids
LED Lighting
60% Penetration
of Global Lighting
32
LED set for explosive growth
0.0200.0400.0600.0800.0
1,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.02,000.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Rev
enue
s ($
Mill
ion)
10.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.026.028.030.0
Rev
enue
Gro
wth
Rat
e(%
)
Revenues ($ Million) Revenue Growth Rate(%)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan.
33
LED Market Drivers ......Perfect example of efficiency, performance & legislation
Energy Efficiency
Technical Development
CostCompeting
EELEconomic Growth
Residential
Commercial & Industrial
Retail & Hospitality
Street Lighting
Public Lighting
Architectural Lighting
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
34
Conclusions and Opportunity Discussion
35
Conclusions
1. Issues of water and energy are converging ….. Efficiency is emerging as
the most important value proposition
2. Smart technology is re-defining the market and becoming integral to
energy and water efficiency … ‘Smart’ Solutions have leapfrogged
‘Green’ Solutions?
3. Technology convergence leads to convergence of competition and re-
defined value chains .... Tomorrow’s competitors & partners will not be
the same as today’s
4. Most promising markets are those that can truly balance complex drivers
and provide real value and real RoI