Dec 2017 Ipsos Global Advisor...PREDICTIONS IN 2018 N. Korea and the USA will start a war against...

© 2017 Ipsos1

Global Expectations for 2018

IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Dec 2017 Ipsos Global Advisor

© 2018 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

© 2017 Ipsos2

In order to understand how global citizens feel about the coming year, Ipsos utilized our monthly 28-country study “Global Advisor” to ask for predictions!

Specifically, we asked this question: I'd now like to ask you some questions about what you think might happen in 2018. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen:

In these countries:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America.

About This StudyPREDICTIONS IN 2018

➢ N. Korea and the USA will start a war against each other➢ China will become the world’s biggest economy➢ A driverless car will make its gov approved debut➢ A major terrorist attack will be carried out in country➢ Average global temperatures will increase➢ Global economic growth will increase

➢ Major stock markets around the world will crash➢ President trump will be impeached➢ Angela Merkel will remain Germany’s chancellor➢ Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase➢ Aliens will visit the earth

© 2017 Ipsos3

The survey is conducted monthly in 28 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries included are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Chile, Colombia, Malaysia, and the United States of America.

An international sample of 20,996 adults aged 18-64 in Canada and the U.S., and aged 16-64 in all other countries, were interviewed between November 27- December 8, 2017.

Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Chile, Malaysia and Turkey, where each have a sample of approximately 500+.

Weighting has been employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country census data.

A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points for a sample of 1,000 and an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for a 500 sample 19 times out of 20.

In 16 of the 28 countries surveyed internet penetration is sufficiently high to think of the samples as representative of the wider population within the age ranges covered: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, Serbia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Great Britain and United States.

Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Malaysia, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Turkey have lower levels of internet penetration and so these samples should not be considered nationally representative, and instead be considered to represent a more affluent, connected population. These are still a vital social group to understand in these countries, representing an important and emerging middle class.

About This StudyPREDICTIONS IN 2018

DATA FINDINGS

©Ipsos.4

© 2017 Ipsos5

PREDICTIONS IN 2018Americans Predict a Rough 2018

Source: Dec 2017 Ipsos Global Advisor -- Q. I'd now like to ask you some questions about what you think might happen in 2018. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen.

11%

25%

33%

37%

43%

44%

47%

49%

50%

51%

56%

22%

27%

19%

42%

25%

25%

19%

23%

20%

22%

19%

66%

48%

49%

21%

32%

32%

33%

28%

30%

27%

25%

Aliens will visit the Earth

Major stock markets around the world will crash

President Trump will be impeached

Angela Merkel will remain Germany’s Chancellor

Global economic growth will increase

Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase

N.Korea and the USA will start a war against each other

China will become the world’s biggest economy

A driverless car will make its gov approved debut

A major terrorist attack will be carried out in Country

Average global temperatures will increase

How likely are the following to happen

Likely Unlikely

+30%

+24%

+20%

+21%

+14%

+12%

+11%

+16%

-16%

-23%

-55%

Net

© 2017 Ipsos6

48%72%

62%62%

58%57%

55%54%

54%50%50%49%49%49%

48%47%46%46%

45%44%

42%42%

40%40%40%40%

37%32%

31%

27%15%

15%19%

24%15%20%

19%20%

29%22%

16%19%

29%25%

23%19%

30%24%

36%38%

34%33%34%

39%41%

42%42%

47%

25%14%

23%19%18%

28%26%

26%27%

21%28%

35%32%

22%28%

30%35%

24%32%

19%20%

24%26%26%

21%19%

21%27%

22%

T o t a lS e r b i a

T u r k e yS p a i n

S w e d e nG e r m a n y

C h i n aI t a l y

P o l a n dC h i l e

G r e a t B r i t a i nH u n g a r y

R u s s i aM e x i c o

S o u t h K o r e aI n d i a

B e l g i u mS a u d i A r a b i a

F r a n c eA r g e n t i n aC o l o m b i a

S o u t h A f r i c aB r a z i l

M a l a y s i aA u s t r a l i a

C a n a d aU n i t e d S t a t e s

P e r uJ a p a n

Likely Unlikely

Q Angela Merkel will remain Germany’s Chancellor

European countries most likely to think Angela Merkel will remain Germany‘s Chancellor, though many elsewhere don’t know

Base: 20,996 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States., Nov 27 – Dec 8 2017

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos7

50%80%

74%66%

60%60%59%

58%56%

54%54%

53%51%51%

49%48%

46%46%45%

44%44%44%44%44%

43%40%

37%26%

21%

13%

31%14%

18%27%

22%25%24%

31%25%

26%33%

31%32%

26%37%

30%33%

32%29%

31%34%33%

36%32%

33%43%

35%58%

37%


T u r k e yR u s s i a

C o l o m b i aM e x i c o

P e r uC h i n a

S a u d i A r a b i aC h i l e

H u n g a r yS o u t h A f r i c a

M a l a y s i aA r g e n t i n a

I n d i aI t a l y

G e r m a n yS w e d e n

S p a i nF r a n c e

B r a z i lG r e a t B r i t a i n

B e l g i u mU n i t e d S t a t e s

A u s t r a l i aP o l a n dC a n a d a

S o u t h K o r e aJ a p a n

Likely Unlikely

Q Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase

Serbs, Turks and Russians themselves most likely to think Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos8

42%55%

51%50%50%49%49%

48%47%47%47%

46%45%

44%44%44%

43%43%

42%40%40%39%

38%37%

34%32%

30%23%

21%

40%31%

38%35%35%35%

39%36%

33%35%

33%40%40%

37%38%

40%34%

40%42%

46%37%

42%36%

41%44%

34%57%

59%66%

T o t a lC o l o m b i a

C h i l eM e x i c o

B r a z i lA r g e n t i n a

T u r k e yM a l a y s i a

U n i t e d S t a t e sP e r u

C a n a d aS o u t h A f r i c a

I n d i aA u s t r a l i a

P o l a n dH u n g a r y

I t a l yB e l g i u mS w e d e n

S e r b i aG e r m a n y

G r e a t B r i t a i nS p a i n

F r a n c eS a u d i A r a b i a

J a p a nC h i n a

R u s s i aS o u t h K o r e a

Likely Unlikely

Q North Korea and the United States of America will start a war against each other

Four in ten on average – and nearly half in the US – think a North Korean/US war is likely –but two in three in South Korea think it unlikely


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos9

35%55%

51%43%

41%41%41%40%40%39%

38%38%38%38%37%

36%33%

31%31%30%

29%29%

29%28%

26%25%

24%23%

20%

46%30%

32%37%

41%36%

44%42%

39%46%47%46%45%

33%41%

41%49%

53%48%48%

34%58%

53%52%

55%61%

60%58%

64%

T o t a lT u r k e y

C a n a d aG r e a t B r i t a i n

G e r m a n yA u s t r a l i a

B e l g i u mM a l a y s i a

S a u d i A r a b i aC h i l e

M e x i c oC h i n a

S o u t h A f r i c aI t a l y

I n d i aS p a i n

U n i t e d S t a t e sS w e d e n

R u s s i aF r a n c e

J a p a nS e r b i aB r a z i l

P e r uC o l o m b i a

S o u t h K o r e aH u n g a r y

A r g e n t i n aP o l a n d

Likely Unlikely

Q President Trump will be impeached

Attitudes still divided on Trump globally, but half of Americans think it is unlikely their President will be impeached


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos10

31%65%

60%53%

51%51%

44%43%

41%40%

39%32%32%

27%23%

21%21%21%20%20%

18%18%

16%16%

15%14%

13%11%

49%18%

27%21%

27%27%

39%33%

26%40%

43%47%

44%56%

52%58%

66%58%

54%63%

57%49%

73%69%

73%68%

64%71%

T o t a lG r e a t B r i t a i n

T u r k e yF r a n c e

G e r m a n yU n i t e d S t a t e s

S w e d e nB e l g i u m

S p a i nA u s t r a l i a

I n d i aC a n a d a

I t a l yM a l a y s i aC o l o m b i a

R u s s i aS o u t h A f r i c a

B r a z i lP e r u

P o l a n dM e x i c o

J a p a nH u n g a r y

S o u t h K o r e aC h i n aC h i l e

A r g e n t i n aS e r b i a

Likely Unlikely

Q A major terrorist attack will be carried out in [country]

Western Europe, Turkey and US most concerned about a terrorist attack on home soil


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos11

59%77%

71%71%71%70%

69%66%

66%66%

65%64%

62%60%

59%58%58%57%57%57%57%57%

56%50%49%49%

43%37%

25%

25%17%

18%20%

22%20%20%

24%23%

24%29%

21%22%21%

20%21%

27%28%

19%21%

28%22%

25%29%28%28%

45%52%

41%


M a l a y s i aS o u t h A f r i c a

T u r k e yC h i l e

R u s s i aP e r u

C o l o m b i aM e x i c o

C h i n aS a u d i A r a b i a

A r g e n t i n aS p a i n

A u s t r a l i aS w e d e n

I t a l yH u n g a r y

C a n a d aG r e a t B r i t a i n

B r a z i lF r a n c eP o l a n d

B e l g i u mU n i t e d S t a t e s

G e r m a n yI n d i a

S o u t h K o r e aJ a p a n

Likely Unlikely

Q China will become the world’s biggest economy

Most believe China will become the world’s biggest economy, Japan and South Korea are most skeptical of this


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos12

28%51%

39%39%

34%33%33%33%

30%30%30%29%29%

28%27%

26%25%25%

24%24%24%23%

22%21%21%

20%20%

16%16%

49%36%

39%47%

50%47%

44%51%

48%40%

48%47%47%

45%48%

50%48%48%48%

57%46%

62%52%

49%52%51%

35%67%

68%

T o t a lM a l a y s i a

S a u d i A r a b i aI n d i a

S o u t h A f r i c aB r a z i l

P o l a n dT u r k e y

C o l o m b i aG e r m a n y

M e x i c oS w e d e n

S e r b i aA u s t r a l i a

B e l g i u mR u s s i a

U n i t e d S t a t e sG r e a t B r i t a i n

C a n a d aC h i l e

F r a n c eC h i n a

I t a l yS p a i n

A r g e n t i n aP e r u

J a p a nS o u t h K o r e a

H u n g a r y

Likely Unlikely

Q Major stock markets around the world will crash

Around three in ten think a major stock market crash is likely


PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos13

71%87%

82%82%81%81%

79%78%

77%76%76%76%

74%74%73%

72%70%70%

69%68%

67%66%

64%59%59%58%58%

56%56%

18%7%

11%14%14%13%

16%17%

14%16%17%

18%16%

18%20%

15%16%

18%17%

23%18%

19%21%

26%14%

27%23%

26%25%


T u r k e yC o l o m b i a

C h i l eM a l a y s i a

C h i n aM e x i c o

S w e d e nH u n g a r y

S o u t h A f r i c aS o u t h K o r e a

A r g e n t i n aP e r u

B r a z i lS p a i n

C a n a d aI t a l y

G e r m a n yI n d i a

F r a n c eG r e a t B r i t a i n

A u s t r a l i aB e l g i u m

J a p a nP o l a n d

S a u d i A r a b i aR u s s i a

U n i t e d S t a t e s

Likely Unlikely

Q Average global temperatures will increase


Most around the world think average global temperatures will increase – Russia and the US most skeptical

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos14

49%67%

64%60%

59%58%

55%53%53%

52%51%50%50%50%49%49%

48%48%48%

47%47%

43%42%

41%41%

39%37%37%

31%

34%24%

27%30%

32%29%

27%32%

32%31%

34%37%

30%30%

32%33%

37%33%34%

30%33%

40%39%39%

36%45%

42%35%35%

T o t a lC h i n a

T u r k e yS o u t h K o r e a

M a l a y s i aI n d i a

C o l o m b i aS a u d i A r a b i a

S e r b i aM e x i c o

S w e d e nS o u t h A f r i c a

U n i t e d S t a t e sS p a i n

R u s s i aA u s t r a l i a

B r a z i lC h i l e

G r e a t B r i t a i nA r g e n t i n a

C a n a d aG e r m a n y

I t a l yF r a n c e

P e r uH u n g a r yB e l g i u m

P o l a n dJ a p a n

Likely Unlikely

Q A driverless car will make its government approved debut in a developed nation


China and Turkey most likely to expect to see a driverless car make a government-approved debut in a developed nation

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos15

12%30%

19%19%18%

17%16%

14%13%13%13%

12%11%11%11%11%10%10%10%10%10%9%

9%8%8%8%

7%7%

5%

66%48%

60%64%64%

59%55%

64%71%

66%68%

71%66%

60%68%

64%66%

71%62%

63%67%

70%71%

75%74%

77%71%

78%61%

T o t a lI n d i a

B r a z i lT u r k e y

C h i n aM e x i c o

P e r uS a u d i A r a b i aS o u t h A f r i c a

M a l a y s i aB e l g i u mH u n g a r y

U n i t e d S t a t e sC h i l eI t a l y

A r g e n t i n aR u s s i a

A u s t r a l i aC o l o m b i a

S o u t h K o r e aS p a i n

C a n a d aG e r m a n y

P o l a n dS e r b i a

S w e d e nF r a n c e

G r e a t B r i t a i nJ a p a n

Likely Unlikely

Q Aliens will visit the earth


Close to 1 in 10 across most countries think it likely aliens will visit the earth this yearPREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos16

In order to dive more deeply into the data, we have also looked at interactions on some of the specific concerns, to better understand if some countries have generally higher concern levels; or the interaction of geography in concerns; etc.

The following slides show scatter plots of two separate – but possibly related – dimensions, to explore the extent to which there is a relationship between them (determined by a sloping distribution of data) or otherwise interesting country clusters.

Related ConcernsPREDICTIONS IN 2018

© 2017 Ipsos17

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

Location Impacts Perceptions about War


Distance from capital cities of respective countries to Pyongyang, North Korea in ‘air distance’ kilometers, rounded to the nearest 500 km.

Argentina

Belgium Mexico

PolandRussia

South Africa

South Korea

SwedenTurkey

Hungary

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

GermanyGreat Britain

India

Italy

Japan

SpainUnited States

Peru

Chile

Colombia

Malaysia

Serbia

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

Likelihood of United States and North Korea Going to War

Dis

tan

ce f

rom

Pyo

ngy

ang,

No

rth

Ko

rea

in K

ilom

ete

rs

© 2017 Ipsos18

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

Growing global temperatures & China’s economy


Global

Argentina

Belgium

Mexico

PolandRussia

Saudi Arabia

South AfricaSouth Korea

SwedenTurkey

Hungary

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

Germany

Great BritainIndia Italy

Japan

Spain

United States

Peru

Chile

Colombia MalaysiaSerbia

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85%

Likelihood that China will become the world’s biggest economy

Like

liho

od

of

ave

rage

glo

bal

te

mp

erat

ure

s in

cre

asin

g

© 2017 Ipsos19

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

Major Terrorist Attack & U.S./N. Korean War


Global

Argentina

Belgium

Mexico

Poland

Russia

South Africa

South Korea

Sweden

Turkey

Hungary

AustraliaBrazil

Canada

China

FranceGermany Great Britain

India

Italy

Japan

Spain

United StatesPeru

Chile Colombia

Malaysia

Serbia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Likelihood of a major terrorist attack being carried out in your country

Like

liho

od

of

Un

ited

Sta

tes

and

No

rth

Ko

rea

Go

ing

to W

ar

© 2017 Ipsos20

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

Winning World Cup & Optimism about 2018

Source: Dec 2017 Ipsos Global Advisor -- Q. I'd now like to ask you some questions about what you think might happen in 2018. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen. Q. Please indicate if you agree very much, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or disagree very much with the following statements:

Global

Argentina

Belgium

Mexico

Poland

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Sweden

Australia

Brazil

France Germany

Great Britain

Japan

Spain

Peru

Colombia

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Likelihood your country will win the 2018 football World Cup

Op

tim

isti

c th

at 2

01

8 w

ill b

e a

bet

ter

year

th

an 2

01

7

© 2017 Ipsos21

PREDICTIONS IN 2018

Russian Influence & the Chinese Economy


Global

Argentina

Belgium

Mexico

Poland

Russia

Saudi Arabia

South Africa

South Korea

Sweden

Turkey

Hungary

Australia

Brazil

Canada

China

France

Germany

Great Britain

India

Italy

Japan

Spain

United States

Peru

Chile ColombiaMalaysia Serbia

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Likelihood Russia’s influence on world affairs will increase

Like

liho

od

Ch

ina

will

bec

om

e th

e w

orl

d’s

big

gest

eco

no

my

© 2017 Ipsos 22

Contacts

Cliff YoungPresidentIpsos Public Affairs

[email protected]

Chris JacksonVice PresidentIpsos Public Affairs

+202-420-2025

[email protected]

© 2017 Ipsos23

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