Dec 18-19, OSAKA

I Love I Love YouYou

1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH

”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams."

-- 15 % Penetration

-- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people

"640K ought to be enough for anybody."

-- Bill Gates, 1981

-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet”

-- Vint Cerf, 1977

“Not everything that can be counted, counts.

-- Einstein, 1879-1955

And not everything that counts, can be counted”

ARPANET DEMONSTRATIONJohannesburg, South Africa, 1974

Per

cen

tag

e o

f O

wn

ersh

ipP

erce

nta

ge

of

Ow

ner

ship

100100

8080

6060

4040

2020

00

ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)

TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)

AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)

TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)

RadioRadio(1905)(1905)

VCRVCR(1952)(1952)

MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)

PCPC(1975)(1975)

InternetInternet(1975)(1975)

1001008080606040402020 120120

Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction

NCP Conception

NCP Roll-Out

1961 19691961 1969

1969 19821969 1982

1972 19821972 1982

1983 Now! 1983 Now!

1991 1995-Now1991 1995-Now

IP Conception

IPv4 Roll-Out

IPv6 Conception

IPv6 Roll-Out 2000 2000

1 G 2 G 3 G 10 * 4 10 * 8 10 * 10 Professionals Innovators Everyone

Email, Ftp WWW Wireless, Streaming Media

9.6 k 56 k 1 + MGovernment Internet Public Internet Global Internet

Users on the Internet Users on the Internet

CAN/US - 125 162Europe - 48 59Asia/Pac - 46 67Latin Am - 10 14Africa - 3 3

--------------------------------------------------Total - 232 305 Mio

Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000

Source: TelcordiaSource: Telcordia

75% of traffic on Internet is WWW3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999)700 Million web pages (and dark info)Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data)8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.)Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported

300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002

Can the Internet runCan the Internet runQuality & Security in one go?Quality & Security in one go?

Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct

broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV

Real-time quality of service support, VoIP

Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)

Internet-enabled DevicesInternet-enabled Devices

In need of IP Addresses, at least!In need of IP Addresses, at least!

Information appliances

–1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC)

WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games

Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

PersonPerson

PersonPerson

ApplianceAppliance

ApplianceAppliance

Voice

Email

VoiceMail

Telemetry

ITS

Alarm

Notifications

Emerging

Growing

Growing

MaturingVoice Control

Fax Computer TeIephony Integration

Home Banking

InfoCom Application AreasInfoCom Application Areas

Source: Cadence, 1998

Wireless Internet

e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras

“always on” networking – increasing demand for IP address space

“Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite

Mobile Radio -– 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

Looking for Killer Apps?

Any Time, Any Where

Future Services

Voice still key service

Mobile E-commerce

Mobile office

Mobile images

Mobile e-mail

Mobile internet

Vertical applications

Vision: World at your fingertips

ADSL, Cable TV,... Service

Gateway

“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”

Fixed line (dial-up)subscribers

Mobilesubscribers

PC/NC Internetusers

Mobile Internetusers

Mil

lion

s

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1 B1 B

The Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’

Wide AreaCoverage

Local AreaCoverage

Mobile Information

Society

Wireless, secure,

high speed access

Messaging internet

always onShared

databases &applications

Mobile telephony

Seamless services

IP

Fast Internet

& Intranet

Mobile multimedia

WirelessWirelessInformationInformation

SocietySocietyS-UMTS

SatelliteBroadband

DVB-S

DVB-TDAB

GSM

GPRS/EDGE

IR

BroadbandW-LAN

UMTS

Satellite/HAPS

Broadcasting

Cellular

Indoor

MBS 40 xMDS

Broadband WFA

Wireless Local Loop

Body LANs

PersonalArea Networks

UMTS ++

4th Generation

Local Area NetworksMBS 60 MWS

Bluetooth

Quasi-CellularSource: Joao DaSilvaSource: Joao DaSilva

Strategic IPv6 IcebreakersStrategic IPv6 Icebreakers

100% IPv6 readiness by 2005

Prime Mister, Yoshiro Mori

Jun Murai’s Speech at IST 2000

in Nice

IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6 IPv4 ((NATNAT)))) IPv6IPv6

1970 1980 2000IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!

1990

- ?

Internet IP Address Need forecasts

200 Millions

Source: Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org)

ARIN

19%

APNIC

38%

RIPE

NCC

43%

ARIN

74%

APNIC

9%

RIPE NCC

17%

IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots

IP Address Haves &IP Address Haves & Have-NotsHave-Nots

Million Year 2005 Year 2010Mobile Phones 1500 3000Mobile IP Phones 500 100010% Roaming 50 100400 Wireless Networks 20000 40000

0

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Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NAT

Deployment Period of CIDR

Moore’s Law and NATsmake routing work today

Source: http//www.telstra.net/ops/bgptable.html

But they cannot berelied on foreverGrowth rate: ~15000 routes/year

Early conclusion

+ Wireless Growth

Internet 2000 is a baby!Internet 2000 is a baby!

Internet Growth

100 IP Adds/person!

+ Always-On+ Info Soft Appliances

FinallyFinally

The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be

and the more complex the transition will be !

(compared to

IPv4

IPv4

The New Internet

1969 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

IP E

volu

tion

1 billion +Connected Devices

100m

NCPNCP

1983