Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1
description
Transcript of Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1
Prepared for Presentation to the
American Dream Coalition
By
Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson
November 11, 2007
Defeated on Nov 7, 2007
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What Was the R&T Package? RTID (Regional Roads Package)
Initially an $18 billion capital program to improve highways of statewide significance
Reduced by half to allow a “Balanced” Roads and Transit Package
Sound Transit ST2 PackageStarted out as a Phase 2 program of 80 transit projects
desired by participating agenciesEmerged as mostly a 50-mile extension of Sound
Transit’s Light Rail System
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Central Link LRTPromise at $2.3 B Delivery at $4.2 B
18 miles with12 Stations
24 miles with21 Stations
2016
?
??
ST1/ST2 LRT Plan
70 miles with34 Stations
Total - $21 Billion7James E. MacIsaac, P.E.
Completionby 2006
“InitialSegment”by 2010
All-or-Nothing Ballot
Forced by State Legislature seeking combined support
Total Package Tax: +1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET
20% of state sales tax would go to transit
Tax Sunset YearsRTID – Would Sunset in 2037
ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff (but no law commitment)
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Campaign Approach
It Costs too much …
And it Does so Little!
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R&T Package Cost
Cap Cost 2006$ ST1 Extend N.A.ST2 $11 bRTID $7 bTotals $18 b
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Full Cost
YOE$
N.A.
$23.6 b
$14.5 b
$38.1 b
2008-2027 (20-year Capital Development Period)
Post 2027 Bond Interest $9.3 b $47.4 b
$157 Billion R&T Tax Proposal*
RTID (Roads) – $8.0 b $16 b ST1 Extension – $14.8 b $64 b Sound Transit – $11.7 b $77 b Total Tax Authorization $34.5 b $157 Billion
Total Tax Collections: 2008-27 2008-57
(10%)
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* Source: Sound Transit estimates thru 2040, extended to 2057.
Why thru 2057 for ST2?Because Sales Tax Revenues will be used to secure the ST2 Bonds with payoff extending thru 2057.ST uses legal means to extend tax collections.
Post-Elect Advise to Supporters "Release one price tag and don't
mention another number, ever. So many cost figures were discussed, the public was never certain which was correct. The mentality became, ‘if the experts don't know the true cost, how would we?’ “ … Seattle Times
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Regional Transit Ridership
Average Weekday: 2030 w/o ST2*
Total Person Trips 13,200,000 Total Transit Trips** 482,000 Transit Mode Share*** 3.7%
Transit “Boardings” 661,000 Transfer Rate 1.37
* Includes ST1 With Central Link from Airport to UW Stadium.** Source: ST Making Connections, Appendix C, June 2007
With ST2 Change
13,200,000 556,000 +74,000 4.2% +0.5%
818,000 +157,000 1.47 2.12
Within Sound Transit Service Area
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*** 2006 Mode Share – 2.9%; Transfer Rate – 1.29.
ST2 Effect on Regional Travel ST1 and ST2 reflect a Light Rail Transit Overlay of transit
services to downtown Seattle But downtown Seattle represents only 10% of Region’s jobs The ST2 effect on the Balance of the Region is negligible Following are proportions of tri-county trips generated by three
subsectors and the share of those trips served by transit:*
Percent of Transit Mode Shares Region Subsector Total Trips 1998 Base 2030 w/ST1&2 Seattle CBD 5%- 27% 44% Balance of Seattle 20-18% 4.5% 6.5% Balance of Region 75-77% 0.5% 0.7% Total Region 100% 2.7% 3.7%
*Source: PSRC 2006 MTP Update.
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Our Campaign Approach “It Costs too much, and does so little”
$157 BILLION Dollars <ka-ching>
Heerree’s Doug
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