Debate: 'South America will be the C21st Superpower' 22 March 2011 - Transcript

8/7/2019 Debate: 'South America will be the C21st Superpower' 22 March 2011 - Transcript

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For your information (details on the event)

Event Speakers:

ChairJonathan Freedland

Speakers for the motionParag KhannaOscar Guardiola-RiveraHE Roberto Jaguaribe

Speakers against the motionBill EmmottRana MitterGideon Rachman

Event Title:

Look West not East: South America will be the 21st century's superpower

Tuesday March 22nd, 2011Doors open at 6pm. The debate starts at 6.45pm and finishes at 8.30pm.

Event Summary

Conventional wisdom tells us that a new star will rise in the East, and over the past decade

all eyes have been looking towards China or India to witness the emergence of the 21stcenturys new superpower. But if the three key elements for a strong and powerfuleconomy are democracy, economic growth and low inflation then neither of those would-be giants makes the grade. Inflation in India is at a 13-year high; as for democracy inChina well there isnt any. Remarkable as has been their recent economic growth theinstitutional frailty of both nations raises questions about long-term sustainability. Butquietly and less flashily the economies of South America have also been transformingthemselves, only in their case unburdened by the dead weight of caste politics orcommunism. And its not just the growing might of Brazil that catches the eye: a newvitality is evident across the continent in Peru, for example, whose 9.8 percent growthrate last year was one of the worlds fastest. So perhaps we should all do an about-turn.

Look West, young man!


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Super-Power-Debate-Audio

Look West not East: South America will be the 21st century'sSuperpower

Tuesday March 22nd, 2011

Chair: Jonathan Freedland

Thank you very much Khanna. Welcome to all of you, our live audience here forIntelligence Squared. Also, welcome to the online audience watching the debate via theIntelligence Squared website, who will doubtless be sending in their questions later viaTwitter. This is usually the David Dimbleby moment, where he mentions things like hashtags, etcetera that he clearly doesnt understand. Im not going to do that.

Instead, lets introduce our subject for tonight. It is Look West, not East. South Americawill be the Twenty-First Centurys Superpower. If the premise for this motion is that LatinAmerica does not get the attention it deserves because people are always lookingelsewhere, then I have to say, not just myself but my newspaper, I write for the Guardian,has a little taste of how that must feel right now . Some of you may have noticed that whilethe Arab world and North Africa are burning up with revolution and military intervention andwhile Japan is in turmoil after earthquake and potential nuclear meltdown, the Guardianhas decided to devote a month of coverage to a season in Europe, rather brilliantly.[Laughter]

And so, last week I was in Paris and then in Madrid interviewing one diplomat after theother and each one of then asked the same question as I walked in: Youre a journalist.

Why on earth are you here? [Laughter] So this is, perhaps, Europe suddenly having aflavor of what Latin America experiences often. I will also just plant it to have hovering inour minds, again it may be more ceased on by one side of our motion rather than theother, the declaration from a grizzled and veteran editor of the New York Times who hadbeen taught from bitter experience that Americans will do mostly anything for SouthAmerica except read about it. We may find some contra-views to that proposal thisevening.

So, that is the motion. You will be casting a vote at the end of the evening by tearing yourticket in two and voting either with the for or against slip. If you are a dont know, youshould place the entire ticket in the ballad box. That counts as an abstention. There will

be a pre-vote, and I will be giving you the results of that after weve had the set piecespeeches from our speakers. Im glad to say that the format is, and they will stick verystrictly to it, each speaker has eight or nine minutes. They will speak from the podium. Iwill be quite hard-line. Two minutes before, I will give two strikes of the glass. One minutebefore, one strike of the glass. After that I will gesticulate wildly and generally embarrassyou if you do not come back away from the podium. So, that is the procedure. Then wellopen it up, as you know people who have been here before, to questions and contributionsfrom the floor. A spirited debate at this end as well. So, Im going to introduce ourspeakers one by one as they come up.

So, our first speaker that may ascend to the podium is Parag Khanna, whos a senior

research fellow in the American strategy program at the New America Foundation. Hesthe author of the, wonderfully titled: How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next


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Renaissance. He is, of course, as our first speaker, speaking for the motion: ParagKhanna.

For: Parag Khanna

Good evening. Many of you are no doubt here because you were seduced by the image

on the left side of this screen. This succulent, seductive lady and you might have hoped tosee her or some avatar of her up on the stage this evening, instead of seven men. Sorryto disappoint you. That said, she and what she represents, has seduced the President ofthe United States. So while we all sit here this evening, President Barack Obama is inSouth America, in Chile and en route to Brazil. No doubt seeking comfort and solace fromthe worlds turbulence. What is his mission? He says it is to forge new alliances acrossthe Americas. He will need them to counter those stiff generals on the right side of thisprogram this evening.

Now those generals and the Chinese superpower that they represent, appear to be anunassailable force, marching irreversibly towards global hegemony. But note that tonights

proposition is not that China or Asian represent the only superpower, but that SouthAmerica will surprise us in becoming one. Now ladies and gentlemen, geopolitics is a veryunsentimental discipline. It doesnt care how many articles or books youve read about therise of China. It doesnt care how much money youve invested in Asian mutual funds. Itdoesnt care how many hours or dollars youve spent on the Chinese nanny to teach yourkids Mandarin. [Laughter]

Geopolitics is about the relationship between power and space. Thus, tonights debateshould center on the elements of power: where and how they come together and how theyare executed, nothing more. It is already the case that the 21st century is, in fact, multi-polar and multi-civilizational. More than one superpower means that no continent willemerge as the superpower. But there will be quite a few that can claim that they aresuperpowers. Indeed, the combination of military, economic, and diplomatic influencemake the United States, the European Union, and China, already superpowers. Theirinfluence extends around the world. They are the three largest imperial units. They aremodels, which are actively spreading themselves around the world. They have resources,they have ambition.

Why is Latin America, why is South America, so perennially been excluded from thisconversation about geopolitics? Well, theres a nave and simplistic assumption thathegemonic power moves in cycles from East to West and now East again, ignoring the

complex realities of how power, the power of each depends on the power of others.

The second reason is that South America has, for so long, been considered a resourceprovider rather than a resource deplorer. The third reason is that the South Americancontinent has been considered geopolitically inert and marginal and subservient,especially to the United States.

Ladies and gentlemen, all of that has changed. First, China is not just rising by itself. It isbringing others with it. Latin Americas booming exports to China are part of the reasonwhy we can have this debate this evening about South America rising to the status of asuperpower. According to Standard Chartered Bank, the trade between Latin America and

Asia is the fastest growing between any pair of regions in the world. That trade is verybalanced as well. So, South America is not being bought or owned in some neocolonial


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pattern, such as many describe Africa today. To the contrary, Chinas rise is elevatingSouth America. It will continue to grow and benefit from that.

Secondly, in an age of resource scarcity, it matters who controls the resources. SouthAmerica represents a very sizable share of the earths total biocapacity. The Amazon rainforest is the worlds lungs. The continent is also the worlds bread basket, producing most

of the worlds bananas, sugar, oranges, coffee, soya beans, and a major share of theworlds beef and pork. It also has massive mineral deposits: silver, copper, lead, zinc, tin,iron or lithium. All of these, in this very rich continent. The Western hemisphere in fact, onthe whole, is on the cusp of energy and food independence from the rest of the planet.Canada, the United States, Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil, are all major oil and gasproducers for a hemisphere that only has one billion people. Those resources are far lessvolatile than the Middle East on which, in fact, China and Asia depend.

In fact, Brazil itself may just have discovered as much oil as Russia has. Canada isphysically as large as Russia, except it works. [Laughter] So, in a century of resourcescarcity, supply has the upper hand on demand. Third, South America previously had no

leader. But today, Brazil has emerged as a confident and mature international power. It isleading the creation of the union of South American nations. It has become active withEurope, across Africa, negotiating with Iran and trading with China. No one really knows ifChinas economic figures are real. But, evermore people are confident in the BrazilianReal. South Americas economy, as a whole, is already the same size of Chinas but withonly half of the population. Due to the success of Chile and Brazil, there is a new leftconsensus across South America that has taken hold. It reverses centuries of politicalvolatility in favor of a consistent pattern of social democracy, proper investment and awelcoming climate for foreign-direct investment. South America is in a state of peace.There are no active hostilities between its nations. It has relatively few countries and acommon culture and heritage. No doubt we look at South America and we see HugoChavez and his cantankerous rule. He has almost led his nation into conflict with severalneighbors, including Colombia. But, that has not materialized, very largely due to themediation of powers such as Brazil. On the whole, Brazils role has in fact been toanimate Latin American leaders, to stand up for themselves and be a part of this story ofSouth Americas rise.

Now, like North America, South America is geographically isolated from geopolitic threats.Much like America rose from a period of splendid isolation. So will too South America. Bycontrast, Asia is very turbulent. The great power rivalries and suspicions that plague theregion are alive and well, between China, Japan, India and South Korean. Asia is, in fact,

leading the worlds arms bazaar. All countries around China have dramatically increasedtheir acquisition of military assets to hedge against Chinas rise.

Can you be so sure that Chinas commercial dominance, and the Asian culture ofdeference, will prevail over parochial interest and the parochial interest of proud nationsthat are armed to the teeth? I wouldnt bet on it. Leaving aside the rational powers, thereare still major flash points in Asian from Myanmar to North Korea, rogue regimes thatcould suck Asias powers into military conflict. If World War III will take place anywhere, itwill be in Asia.

China is not without domestic disturbances. From the waves of protest on corruption at all

levels, to the existential challenge of caring for its vast elderly as the race to clean up theenvironment continues without taxing the society to the limit, when its currently choking


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much of its population. By and large though, this entire case can be made without bashingAsia, which is of course the continent I come despite my rugged Latin looks. [Laughter]

Which brings us back to Obamas trip for this week in which he went South, not East.America has realized that South America is its turn-key solution to its two greatestchallenges: energy security and economic competitiveness. Obamas trip takes place on

the fiftieth anniversary, to the month, of the Alliance for Progress, which sparked a veryimportant wave of modernization and industrialization in South America in the 1960s.Today, America is launching a new alliance for progress in the region. American firms arerelocating from Asia to Mexico and other Latin American countries, while partnerships inenergy and trade are flourishing between America and Brazil. Together, North and SouthAmerica will be able to compete with Asia, whose rise America has sponsored with theoutsourcing of manufacturing is going to come back to Americas time zone.

In other words, South America will become a major 21st century superpower also becauseAmerica wants it to be one. The rise of the East then, will reunite the West stronger thanever. But this West will include, not only just the United States and Europe, but also a new

third pillar: South America. Thank you very much.


I hope the other speakers notice that, with the merest flick on the glass, he was back in hisseat. [Laughter] This is the rod of iron for which I propose to use this evening. Our nextspeaker is himself a former editor, but one of the very few who actually can claim to havecovered South America seriously in his publication. Nevertheless, despite that, hes hereto argue against the motion. Hes the former editor ofThe Economistand author ofRivals: How the Power Struggle Between China, India, and Japan Will Shape Our NextDecade. Here to argue against the motion, I suppose suggesting that we should lookeast rather than west is Bill Emmott.

Against: Bill Emmott

Well thank you very much, Chairman, and to Intelligence Squared for having me here thisevening. Id like to thank my friend Parag Khanna for making the first speech against themotion. His excellent speech told us exactly what I think, which is that the 21st Centuryshould not be a century in which we look in one direction or the other. It should not be acentury in which we chose China over Brazil, India over the United States. It should be,we should hope it will be, a century in which there will not be a single superpower. In

which there will be many powers and perhaps a balance of those powers.

Of course, looking to the future, we must remember always the wise words of SamGoldman, that we should never forecast, especially about the future. We should look atthe future with humility. Anyone who looks at the speed of events in North Africa and theMiddle East since December when the first spark came in Tunisia, anyone who looks atthe potential impact on Japan on the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster on March11, should be touched by the humility. By that sense that any forecast about the future isfirst of all something that of course would rule journalists out of a job, since if it was allclear, nobody would need to buy our publications or read our columns or our books. Butsecondly, that many things can or will change. Let me emphasize how profoundly

pessimistic the motion actually is about that future.


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The motion that says South America will be the 21st centurys superpower. Look west, noteast. That is profoundly pessimistic because it assumes that the way were developingnow, which is to have the greatest growth in living standards, in humanities income, in themovement in people out of poverty thats ever happened in history, thanks substantially towhats happening in the most populous place in the world, namely Asia, home to half theworlds population, three billion plus people, that this may come to an end. That this might

achieve some sort of terrible denouement. That, in the future, this progress of the Eastmight be severely interrupted. In my book, as was kindly marketed by our chairman, I dosay that there is rivalry between China, India and Japan that will help to shape the future.But I do come from a background in which I think that competition can be a positive thing.There are arms races. There is real tension in Asia. Theres real tension within thecountries of Asia over future types of government that those countries should have,particularly in China. The speed with which the Chinese government and authorities havesort to snuff out any signs of protest, any signs of dissidence emulating events in Egypt,Tunisia, Libya, and elsewhere, shows how paranoid they are about these prospects.

But still, to see the 21st century as being defined solely or chiefly by South America

requires a very pessimistic view about the outcome of that story in Asia. Not just that therewill be interruptions, not just that there will be perhaps bits of instability as Chinademocratizes, as India deals with its inequality, as issues such as the unification of theKoreas are played through. No not just instabilities, but rather that this whole process willcome to some sort of a terrible conclusion.

Because otherwise, a steady growth in the half of the world that we call the East, shouldproduce very, very powerful countries in that part of the world that would be at least abalance to very powerful countries in the Western part of the world. I believe we should bevery positive about the prospects for South America, especially about Brazil, of course thedominant country of the South America. The progress in the last twenty years in thepolitics of Brazil, the economic management of Brazil, the management of inequality withinthat country, the spread of development of its democracy have been spectacular and havebeen extremely welcome. I hope very much that they will continue. But we mustrecognize the weaknesses also within that continent.

Argentina is usually one president away from its next default. [Laughter] It is the worldschampion sovereign debt defaulter. Anyone looking for worries about the Euro and futuremodels for how you do a sovereign debt default always reach for the file markedArgentina in their file. Mexico, the second great economy of the region, has the worldsmurder record for crime in the Mexican border region, the drug related crime is very sadly

absolutely spectacular. Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, is a notable figure there of course and Iam a proud owner of his constitution. He came to The Economistto meet with some of usthere. When we started asking him about problems with his constitution, he said Yes, itsan excellent constitution and reached into his pocket and pulled out a little blue book, kindof like Maos little red book. He said, Here is it, I wrote it. Ill sign it for you and heres acopy. [Laughter]

I have it on my bookshelves at home. So what I want to say about Latin America, aboutSouth America, is that they are not together a unified nor actually especially well-integrated region of the world. They are a region with great potential, Brazil especially. Iwish them extremely well, but I think we should recognize the pessimistic view that the

idea that they will become the 21st

century superpower, what this represents. The strengthof Asia, the population of Asia, the speed of change in Asia, the great flexibility of theAsian economies and Asian societies, I think, is remarkable and impressive. We hope,


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and we should hope, that the development of that part of the world will spread and dependand will indeed spread into greater democracy.

We should also assume and hope that the United States will be, still, the 21st centurysuperpower. It goes through its ups and down. Its currently in a bit more of a down thanan up. But, Winston Churchills great comment about America, about the United States, is

worth always remembering. Which is that America can always be relied upon to do theright thing once it has exhausted the alternatives. [Laughter]

I will leave my colleagues to talk about the merits of Europe and Britain, but I do think youshould vote against the motion. You should be optimistic about the future, a future that isbalanced between many strong countries, big and small, that doesnt follow the fashionthats been the fashion of the past few years that looks at only large countries to beimportant in the world. But perhaps looks back at the fashion prior to that in which thenation state was supposedly becoming less important and hopes that, in fact, super powerstatus will become much less important in the future and we will have a much widerdevelopment, a much broader development and, one must hope, a peaceful world as we

can hope. Thank you ladies and gentlemen.


Thank you. There can be no mistaking which side our next speaker is on. A seniorlecturer in law at Birkbeck College and the University of London. He is the author of,relevantly for our purposes, the ambitiously titled: What if Latin America Ruled theWorld? Our next speaker, for the motion, is Oscar Guardiola-Rivera.

For: Oscar Guardiola-Rivera:

May you live in interesting times, goes the saying attributed to the Chinese. It sounds likea good omen, doesnt it? But Im told that they intended it as a curse. Looking at the mostdecisive events of the century so far, from the water wars in Bolivia, to the stolen electionin America, the debacle of Iraq, the great recession or civil war and military intervention inLibya. It seems impossible not to agree that we do live in interesting times.

Whether you look at the happy non-democracies of the east or some of our own unhappydemocracies caught between austerity and gloom, you may be inclined that the Chinesegot it right, that to use one of those profound terms we philosophers are so fond of, werescrewed. [Laughter]

So, where can we look for much needed hope and some inspiration. I say, look west, noteast. Everyone knows interesting things are happening in the Americas. I have written abook, a whole book, entitled, What if Latin America Ruled the World? which describessome of the things that are happening there as well their historical context. But mostimportant of all, it explains why there are good reasons to choose what I call the happydemocracies of the Americas as an image of hope and an example to the rest of the world.

For instance, there is a strict parallelism between the grass roots mobilizations we havebeen witnessing in the Arab world and the grass roots mobilizations that took place in thefirst decade in this century. In both cases, the people took up against domestic as well as

foreign dictate and took it upon themselves to realize the promise of freedom that was heldback for so long. To the extent that Brazil, and the other countries of South America, havemanaged to enhance their capacities for self-rule, while deepening their commitment to


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democratic and egalitarian institutions dating back some two hundred years ago. Thecontinent as a whole has become a beacon of freedom and hope around the world.

The resistant nations of the Western hemisphere have consolidated a unified voice aroundsuch institutions as Mercosul, UNASUL, IPSA and other successful instances of regionaland south corporation, while at the same time, overcoming the situation of dependence

that can actualized the period of the late 1990s.

Crucially, they have renounced violence on war as the norm of international and domesticrelations, opting instead for a principal that stands in favor of equality and democracy.These new situations contrast sharply, very sharply, with instability and non-democracyelsewhere. This is why, as he toured South America, U.S. president Barack Obama wasable to hail Brazil or Chile as an example everywhere in the world, which shows how totransform itself into a vibrant democracy. Which shows that a democracy providesfreedom and opportunities to the people as he put it.

But this is also why Obama knew he could not pretend that the United States would ever

again deal with Latin America as it had done in the past in terms of dictates, as if SouthAmerican countries were Americas backyard. You know interesting things are happeningwhen the president of the lonely superpower has to acknowledge that, realisticallyspeaking, the best he can hope for is an equal partnership between his country and thecountries of South America. That, in a way, America needs the countries south of theborder more than they need the U.S. because, among other things, there is a whole Latinonation within the United States which in demographic terms already doubles the rest of thepopulation and will triple or quadruple its presence in the U.S. by 2050.

Hope didnt come to Latin America. We made it our own. But hope in Latin America isalways tempered by sobriety. Our optimism illuminated by a clear memory of past failuresand current challenges. Some of our own making, others associated with a long and nottoo distant history of colonialism, unfinished projects, broken promises and intervention.

Also, in this respect, Latin Americas leadership matters. We are less confident than manyof our Euro American counterparts and they need the novelty of multilateralism in theworld. This may be lead towards more antagonistic views of world order based on abalance between five or six powers calling all the shots. But also, towards ambitious goalsconcerning a regional and international entities.

This has been exemplified in the position taken by Latin America vis a vis the international

financial institutions, Eleron, and more recently in the wake of the 2008 global crisis. Itcalls for a complete overhaul of the postwar arrangement. Its leading rolling to thenegotiations that led to the declaration of Tehran in May of last year or in the globalpartnership dialogue launched by Brazil and the United States last February.

In all of these cases the point is the same: to interact with the rest of the world, withAmerica particularly, as equal. This is the thesis of my book. The combined power of thetwo Americas, bought ever closer by a common libertarian history, economic ties, sharedspace and demographics will give any upstart nations with potentials of hegemony a runfor its money. This is why I believe you should look west, not east.

It is no surprise that in the last global survey conducted by the BBC Global Service, that intwenty seven countries around the world, the positive opinion about the influence ofcountries such as Brazil has increased from forty percent to forty-nine percent, while


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negative views fell three points to twenty percent. In contrast, Chinas positive rate fell sixpoints this year to thirty-nine percent with forty percent, rating it negatively. I have nointention the many achievement of the east, particularly in effect to the millions of peoplewho have been lifted out of poverty in recent years or demonize it. We should not fall forthe false dilemmas or the us versus them choices hashed by people unable tounderstand that the world has moved on. These people lazily hang on to the tired mantras

of the threatening order, gloom and decline. Decline has failed to acknowledge thatnobody is seeking to replace the United States, that it has no real competitor and that it willcontinue to play an important military and cultural role in the coming years.

Alas, from the so called rise of China or Brazil and the rest of South America, it does notfollow the decline of the West. Just as the rise of the west in the fifteenth century did notfollow solely from Chinas decision to turn inwards. If there was any decisive event allthose centuries ago, it was the encounter between peoples from Asia, Africa, Europe andthe Americas.

We live with the consequences of that encounter. Some were dire and we should not

deny them in the name of some mystical idea of progress. Others, still unfolding, pointtowards the enhancement of what is best about us all. Exclusively peaceful relations withthe rest of the world, a model that connects the more [unclear 50:18] with inclusive growth,employment creation and international interaction based on diplomatic solutions. Perhapseven some non-modern solutions to a very modern problem. Cooperation to reducefamine and poverty and to create more democratic mechanisms to deal with globalquestions.

These, my friends, are not mere ideals. This is Latin American practice. This is why LatinAmerican is being hailed as an example to the world and this is why you should look west,not east. But if you still need some convincing, lets make fun of philosophy once more.As you know, we philosophers love engaging very complicated though experiments so letme try to conclude this evening with something much less sophisticated. Lets call it a gut-feeling experiment inspired by the publicity for this event. Look at this image and tell mewhich way you would go? [Laughter] Would you choose him or him? [Laughter] Orperhaps you might prefer him. Would you go for these strong ladies or these strongladies? [Laughter] Or perhaps you would prefer her? Who could blame you? I wont.[Laughter]. I know where I stand and I think you know which way your vote with gotonight. Thank you.


The diary story almost writes itself about the all-male panel assembled by IntelligenceSquared which ended up flashing pictures of scantily clad women on the screen. I wontleak it if you wont. Our next speaker like the first against the motion, a journalist. Also, agraduate ofThe Economist, where he reported from Brussels, Bangkok, and Washington,but not, I noticed from South America. He is now the Chief Foreign Affairs columnist of theFinancial Times, where hes a must read and the author of Zero Sum Futures: AmericanPower in an Age of Anxiety. Here to oppose Gideon Rachman.

Against: Gideon Rachman:

Thank you very much Jonathan and thank you for inviting me. Ladies and gentlemen,Latin America is a great place which weve just seem by those spectacular visual aids.[Laughter]


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I dont have pictures of scantily clad dancers or hatchet-faced Chinese generals toentertain you with. But what I do want to do is to explain to you why, although LatinAmerica is a very positive, optimistic place at the moment, there is no way that it will rulethe world or indeed be the superpower of the 21st century, not politically, not economicallyand not even intellectually. Now after pouring a bit of cold water on that, let me start with

some kinder words. Lets start with whats going right. I was actually in Brazil last week,so dont ever let it ever be said that I dont go the extra mile to do my research forIntelligence Squared debates. [Laughter]

Like Jonathan, I have the experience with thinking, I write about international affairs. Whyam I actually in Brazil instead of somewhere a little a bit more in the news? Then I noticedObama was actually in Brazil and I thought, Well then, Ive gotten something right. Andyou can totally understand why people are paying attention to the country and thecontinent and why people in Brazil are so upbeat at the moment. The economy is growingstrongly. The Brazilian Finance Minister has just claimed, a little prematurely, that it is thenow the worlds fifth largest economy. But even if its not yet, it soon will be.

Unlike in the west, where weve had thirty years marked by rising inequality, Brazil whichhas been a buy word for inequality is now seeing falling inequality. The Bolsa Familia, thisprogram of social transfers is a highly successful, much admired social program. Brazilscommodity exports, as Parag pointed out, are booming. Foreign reserves are high. Thecurrency is strong. In fact, its too strong. Theyre complaining bitterly about it. Rent andbankers salaries, if thats an indicator of health, are now higher in San Paulo than in NewYork.

The World Cup is coming, the Olympics are coming. What could go wrong? Brazil iscertainly fashionable. Its part of the most fashionable geopolitical arrangement in theworld: the BRICS. But unlike the other BRICS, its not scary. Its not scary like China orscary like Russia and its certainly less chaotic than India. So, Brazil is the cuddly BRIC.Its the one that everybody likes and they give all the tournaments to.

Now, look more broadly at the continent, again its a positive story. Growing fast, countriesthat were once famous for terrible conflicts have often outgrown them. Chiles successful,prosperous democracy. Peru has beaten the shining the path. Colombia lastly hasbeaten the drug cartels. And continent-wide, this is, as its been said, a conflict-free zone.The wars that disfigured Central America are over.

But, this still will not be the Latin American century, let alone the Latin American decade orwhatever you want for several reasons. The first is simply sheer size. The total populationof Latin America is just shy of six hundred million. Thats less than half the population ofChina alone. When it comes to economic weight, size does matter. The Chineseeconomy at the moment its just, as somebody pointed out, the size of the Latin Americaneconomy. But China is growing much faster than Latin America. China has been growingat an average rate of eight to nine percent per year for the last thirty years. It may not besustainable for the next thirty years, probably wont be, but its got a momentum behind itthat Latin America simply doesnt have. Brazil, where I was last week, theyre growing apercent, but not really sustainable, probably four to five percent as a natural rate of growth.Maybe thats more healthy. But if China, a huge population is growing at twice the rate of

Brazil, you dont really need to do the mathematics to work out whats going to happen.The sheer economic weight of Asia is just going to be much, much larger than that of Latin


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America. China is not actually that anomalous. India is actually also growing at eight tonine percent a year, another country of over a billion people.

So the sheer economic weight of Asia is going to completely dwarf that of Latin America.And political power does grow from the economic power. Its not a complete mathematicaltranslation that this size of economy equals this amount of political power. But look at the

growing political clout of China in the world. I mean, the Brazilians are locked into aneconomic relationship with China that they arent exactly happy about. They are thecommodity supplier, the manufacturers are all going out of business because Chinesegood are out-competing them and certainly its the Chinese who are going around Europeoffering to buy up Greek bonds or fund Portuguese debt, not the Brazilians.

So, thats the economic side. But I think one also has to look, as well as making thiscomparison with Asia, you have to look at Latin America which, although it has a lot goingfor it, also does still have many weaknesses. Inequality is coming down, but its still one ofthe most unequal parts of the world. The drug gangs may have been beaten in Colombia,but they are rampant in Mexico where twenty-eight thousand people have died since the

Calderon administration launched its drug war, a much higher civilian toll than even inAfghanistan.

And in fact, the Mexicans will tell you, Im not sure its true, perhaps the Brazilianambassador can set me right, theyll take you aside and say: Actually the murder rate ishigher in Brazil and its higher in Central America. So, this is quite a violent continent.Education is another big problem. On the PISA rankings of school in maths and literacy,Brazil comes very low down the rankings. Brazil is half of the continent. It came fifty-thirdof sixty-two in reading and math. The U.S., which thinks it has great problems in thosearea, is in the twenties. Britain is in the twenties as well. And if you take the famousShanghai rankings of the worlds top universities, there isnt a single Latin Americanuniversity in the top hundred.

Finally, ideology, Oscar, to judge by his book and by his speech tonight, believes that LatinAmerica represents in some way, a new slightly more humane form of globalization and anew form of approaching economics. But it seems to me that a lot of the success ofmodern Latin America has actually just entailed an embrace of the globalization that wealready have. Lulas first trip as president of Brazil to the World Economic Forum inDavos, the festival of globalization where all world leaders go and play court for the sameinvestment bankers and multinational executives. And if you go to the Latin Americandinner at Davos, its stuffed with presidents there that basically embraced the globalization

consensus. The Latin American populist left still romanticized by many in Europe, Imafraid represents a dead end. For those who doubt it, consider that Hugo Chavez was the2009 winner of the Muammar Gaddafi International Prize for Human Rights. [Laughter]

Thats not one that you want to keep on your mantelpiece. [Laughter]So Latin America is a great place, its an exciting place, its an optimistic place, but itscertainly not going to run the world. And Latin Americans frankly should be grateful forthat, given the current travails of the U.S., running the world isnt all its cracked up to be.

Chair: Jonathan FreedlandLater on, Gideon, perhaps youll share with us some of the previous winners of the

Muammar Gaddafi prize for Human Rights. I think that may there may be some heretonight, some residents in this country, perhaps even some former Prime Ministers of this


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country, I was wondering. So, perhaps well hear from you who the previous winnerswere.

Our next speaker is an advocate for South America not just for fun here this evening, butthis is how he earns his living. He is a trained engineer, but also one of the mostseasoned diplomats in London. Representing the country hailed as the superpower of this

region, that might indeed become the super power of the 21st

century, the country you justheard to being referred to as the cuddly BRIC, the Ambassador of Brazil to London, pleasewelcome the next speaker, his Excellency Roberto Jaguaribe

For: HE Roberto Jaguaribe:

Good evening and thank you very much. Its a pleasure to be here. Of course, the firstthing to consider is the fact that no one can ration the fact that we are entering to a veryclear phase of multi-polarization in the world and that there will be no single superpower.We are going to have different focuses of power. In fact, superpower is an acronym, is aname, or a category, which does not apply to Latin America or to Brazil. We do not aspire

that. We aspired to be in a world of more equilibrium or more cooperative stances. Butthis is a very strong posture. This is a posture that has transformational elements in it andit has aspired to improve the world. I think looking to South America, you will find that wewill have contributions in order to generate the type of dialog and intervention that isrequired to optimize the possibilities of a more multilateral, multi-polar scenario. I think thisis one of the important elements of South America.

We are witnessing, of course, a major transformation. I think China is one of the countries,perhaps the country that has pushed for that transformation and opened the door forothers to become visible. Brazil, amongst us, South America, amongst us, the majorareas of transformation that China has brought are very important. Among those, I wouldsay, that to become a very important country, its no longer necessary to be a developedcountry.

China is a developing country, will be a developing country for a very long time, but it is adetermining country in an international scenario. This applies to a number of otherelements, a number of other countries, that goes for India as well. It certainly goes forSouth America and for Brazil. The advantage of South America in relation to otherregions, we are, without any doubt living in the most extensive, cohesive, andhomogenous region of the world. There is no geographical space that is as homogenousor as cohesive as Latin America is, because of its history, because of its problems,

because of its challenges, because of its population and the language is also a commonground. Everyone knows that Spanish is a variation of Portuguese. [Laughter]

We have enormous elements of importance that contributes to the fact that we can reallyplace and have an important role in this place in the world. Demography which has beenin place states that as a deficit for Latin America is to an extent a deficit and I concur withthat. But lets say if Brazil had the demographic density of Bangladesh, we would have tenbillion inhabitants in Brazil. So demography is also a challenge for growth, demographyalso presents as enormous benefit to Latin America.

We have two or three major issues of the 21st century which are clearly resolved in South

America, Latin America in general which are: environment, energy, and water. SouthAmerica energy is an enormous plus. We provide about thirty percent of the world andgrowing because the prospects of additional finds in oil in Brazil alone are already very


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significant. Its not just brazil. Many other countries are beginning to find very significantdeposits of oil in that region. Renewable energy is fundamental. Water: South Americaprovides thirty percent of the renewable water in the world. Water is a scarce element inAsia. Its going to become even scarcer. Latin America, Brazil alone, has fifteen percentof all the renewable water in the world. This is a fundamental element. Commodities, Imnot just going ahead and producing something because you have the land, the space, or

the air, or the sun as an agriculture. Commodity requires an agricultural production, requirecompetitiveness, requires investment. The reason why Brazil and many other LatinAmerican countries have become so competitive in commodity exports is because of theenormous amount of research that has gone into agricultural development.

The bread basket of Brazil today is the center part of the country, which was consideredcompletely inept for agricultural production until about thirty years ago. So its not just aquestion of having a lack of capacity in research and technology, which is a problem, Imust confess, but its the fact that we have devoted enormous energies to maximizingbenefits that are structural in our region.

Another very important element relates to the cultural dimension, which I alreadymentioned. All of Latin America is very diversified from the point of view of the culturalformation of each country. We are a very synchratic culture. That is very much the casein Brazil. That brings multiple cultural references in play. We have the ability and this isnot exclusive of South America, India to the certain extent has the same benefit, of beingable to look into things from different angles, which provides a much better possibility ofunderstanding amongst, not just inside, but also in relation to international relations ingeneral.

We have been working very hard to change the international scenario and we believe thatthe format that is really taking place and taking shape, which is the multi-polarity, isextremely beneficial to the type of vision that we bring to this matter, which is essentiallythe idea that we much have horizontal and vertical relations.

Another element which we think is fundamental and which provides a certain novelty inthis space is the idea of doing away with the like-minded countries agenda which hasdominated international relations for the past twenty or fifty years after the second worldwar. Like-minded agenda has not resolved the political or even the economic ordevelopment issues in the world. We favor a country a diverse-minded country coalitionwhich will be able to provide different perspectives to common and traditional problemsthat actually have not been resolved.

Another element which I think is important to consider when you look at the 21st century isto create and distinguish between structural and conjunctoral problems. Latin America,South America in particular, does face and we do face significant conjunctoral limitations.Many of those have been mentioned. There are limitations in relation to education. Thereare limitations in relation to infrastructure. There are limitations in relation to science andtechnology. But there are limitations are essentially conjunctoral limitations and notstructural limitations. What do I qualify as structural limitations?

Long-term impediments to continued growth: demography is one, natural resources isanother, availability of water another continues and also the difficult geographic and

geopolitical environment. But this has already been stated. South America is very muchat peace. Its a continent that has a number of minor irritants in relation to nationalquestions. But its essentially been resolved throughout the nineteenth century.


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On the other hand, we also have an enormous degree in each country of nationalintegration. This is a crucial element in the definition of what the nation is. How many bigcountries in the world do not have any problem of national integration. I will tell you, twoUnited States and Brazil. All other countries of a big size have an enormous problem ofintegration, which constitutes significant barriers and problems to their own development.

Most Latin American countries present one major challenge, which is being supersededwhich is social integration. This again, has been already qualified. We do have problemsof social integration. But the advances in the policies that have been carried out, not justin brazil, but throughout the region have placed Latin America, on the other hand, at whatis taking place all around the world, which is growth with increased income distribution.

WE have not witnessed that anywhere else in the world, via the developed world, via theparts of the developing world. Growth with income distribution is a characteristic that wewill find today only in South America. Of course there are other cultural elements whichwe believe are very important. We have a very clear national identity in relation toliterature, music and a very general optimistic and Im not favorable to the methodology

that is applied to many of these surveys. But one of the ones that came out recently, butof the ten most optimistic countries in the world, nine were in South America, LatinAmerica. Of course, just the numbers are very representative.

Today, South America, according to figures of the IMF or the CIA, already represents thefourth largest economy in the world, after NAFTA, which is the biggest, Europe which isthe second and China, which is the greater. Of course we have a much more populationof any other of these combinations, but we already are a very significant economic power.

In terms of commodities, the numbers have already been provided. I could add a list tothose in which we are very representative. And finally, of course, we must state that wehave been, for a long time and hopefully will continue to be, the worlds most importantpowerhouse in football. Thank you. [Laughter]


Saving the best until last, perhaps, many of you would have heard our next speaker on theradio as the presenter of Radio Threes Nightwaves, also author of A Bitter Revolution:Chinas Struggle with the Modern World. Hes the professor of the history and politics ofModern China at Oxford, our last speaker, speaking against the motion is Rana Mitter.

Against: Rana Mitter

Thank you Jonathan and everyone here tonight. I might say, as Oscar was speakingearlier on, I thought that, If Latin America ruled the world. One thing clearly that wouldhappen is that we would all dress much better. And clearly the tie being worn both byGideon Rachman and myself would probably both be publicly burned as a crime againstfashion in that particular world. So, perhaps its lucky that were not in that world.[Laughter]

I want to describe the world around us. I just came in obviously to London from Oxfordwhere I live. As I was traveling on the tube, I noticed around me, an awful lot of people

actually studying and practicing the Portuguese language and using a whole variety ofdifferent grammars and tapes and iPods to practice those difficult vowel and consonantsounds that the ambassador will know. The kind of curacao nao. Actually, as Ive


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been wondering around the country, Ive been finding this tremendous upsurge for theenthusiastic study of the Portuguese language. People basically realizing that as Braziltakes its role as that great new continental regional power, they need to get in on theground floor and start learning the language.

Well, that would be a great idea that except, as we know, that isnt really the world as we

see it. If people are taking on a new global language, the stark reality is, that it isMandarin. That is the language that people are taking on board, whether its the nanniesas Parag mentioned it, or what else is bringing it to children, but it is the Chinese languagethat seems to have caught peoples imagination. If you go around the world and say Falu tiportugus? you might get a pleasant smile. But if you go around saying Wo shuozhongguo hua? youre going to start actually doing business. I think that reality, thatdivision between the two is really where my part of todays argument lies.

Because I do want to suggest that, in the world order as it is, we started with Parag on theother side, talking about the reality of geopolitics you might want it to be. Its clear that interms of world order and shaping of that order, it is the East and Im ashamedly saying that

were talking here about the big Asian superpowers, it is the East that is going to shape thenext century and not, to my regrets as Im as attracted to these pictures as anybody else,the world of South America.

It is going to be a place which is shaped very much by a variety of new powers that havesomething to say and have the clout to make it happen. One argument that I think putforward particularly by Parag Khanna that I need to combat immediately is the idea thatthe India, the China, the Japan, still the worlds third largest economy, mustnt forget abouteven as its declining, the idea of an Asian culture of deference is going to prevent thesepowers from really having their say. I think about prominent Asian thinker that havechanged the world: Mao Ze Dong, Mahatma Gandhi, Parag Khanna, none of these peoplecould be described in any ways in deference of the way of the thinking the world isdescribed by. [Laughter]. Instead, these are people that have ceased and changed theworld. It is with those figures that I really have to make the core of my argument now,which is with great regret and great respect to our colleague the ambassador and othershere who hail from the continent of South America, in the end and for the moment and forthe time that I can foresee, the global attraction of Latin America is still going to berelatively globally limited. As opposed to something that is more universalizing on theAsian side.

Weve talked about the cultural side of things. So, lets talk about the big transmitters of an

Asian style of culture around the world. That is the Bollywood movie. Those of you whohave not yet enjoyed the pleasure of a four hour movie extravaganza of singing, dancingand extremely dubious plot lines, have a treat in store for them. But its very clear that itsthe Bollywood movie that has shaped cinema around the world, not the other way around.

If one goes to Latin America, the movie tunes from those Bollywood movies, are wellknown enough that people actually dont know they come from India. The same is true inthe Middle East and the same is true even in China. This is a universalizing culturalphenomenon that comes from Asia. If one looks at, I dont know how much of your timeyou spend hanging out with thirteen or fourteen year olds, and I think I might lead someraised eyebrows if I claimed that much of my time was spent in that way at least not while

people are watching on the web stream, but if you talk to teenagers about the culturalimpacts, you will hear over and over again the word manga. In other words, a Japaneseform also known as the anime which comes from a very different cultural and visual way of


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seeing that has gone global and has gone viral. Wherever you go in the world, and Imsure that includes Latin America, the pictures, the culture, the visuality, of the manga andthe anime are yet another example of how a cultural mean formation from the Asian sidehas spread across the world. In contrast, the things that are uniquely and distinctivelySouth American, still I think have a long way to go before they have that widertransformative power. I am, for instance, a great fan of the 1960s expressionist

Argentinean film director Leopoldo Torre Nilsson. Im sure everyone on the panel is aswell and we shall be swapping anecdotes later about his greatest movies, La mano en latrampa, a masterpiece. On the other hand, I think its fair to say and I make a slightlyunfair comparison there that Latin American cinema, literature, even football, which isperhaps a slightly different sort of cultural formation, either tend to attract praise becauseof the cultural specificity or because, like football, they are something thats so globalizedalready, theres not specifically very Latin American about them.

If we think about the way in which societies are understood, are put forward, lets thinkabout a figure like Mahatma Gandhi, if youre going to mention anyone whos associatedwith progressive political change in our own era, perhaps Nelson Mandela. Perhaps,

across the century, Gandhi comes in mind more than anyone else as a great liberator.Simon Bolivar is also a figure of great interest and importance who I highly respect. But Ithink its fair to say that he doesnt get the name-brand recognition that a Gandhi hasaround the world. Similarly, if you go around the world looking for cultural symbols of thattype of cultural change, people might well point to the Confucius institutes, which havebeen set up in over one hundred countries over the world to spread the study of Mandarin.

I asked a friend of mine who is here tonight this evening if she had ever heard ofConfucius, at which point she basically slapped me across the face for asking such astupid question. She slaps across the face a lot to be fair. I then asked her if she newBernardo OHiggins, the great Chilean liberator and I have to say, on that particularoccasion, she clearly hadnt. In other words, there are some universalizable trops,memes, ideas that I think are much more coming from the Eastern than the Western sideof our cultural universe. I fear that will be the case for some time to come.

The reason for this has been touched on by some fellow speakers of this side. So, I wontrepeat where weve gone already. But I think it is the fact that the East and particularlyIndia, China, and Japan, are going to dominate the way in which the next superpower isgoing to be formed in the next century. That is going to be in virtual space, in cyberspace.Whatever weve been led to believe, the reality is that Latin America is not at the momentand is not, in the near future, is going to be dominant in the virtual reality that shapes all

the ways we interact. When the next version of the IP address, the internet protocol that isbeing discussed right now, those discussions are taking place with Beijing. They are nottaking place in the same level with Brasilia or with Buenos Aires.

Thats largely because of the things that the ambassador himself acknowledged. In otherwords, that the educational level, the infrastructure, the things that absolutely make theformation of the educational superpower of the next century are happening in China, theyare happening in India, places like the Peking Institute, the India Institute of Technology.But not yet in Brazil, Argentina or the other countries of that continent.

In a country, China, where even despite the authoritarian restrictions of freedom of speech

which I suspect everyone in this room would frown upon, there are four-hundred ten millionusers of the internet, growing daily, larger than the population of the entire United States.


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They are creating a new way of interaction that will shape the nature of that nextsuperpower.

So I think, in the last resort, if we want to think about the way in which the next century isgoing to do, log onto the internet, find out which is the language is being used mostfrequently aside from language and actually coming up on the outside and with great

regret the language is not Portuguese, its not even Spanish, its Mandarin. Thank you.


Thank you. Well thank you to Rana Mitta and all of our speakers. All of them admirablyprecise. I hope all of you will use that as a model as we now open up the debate. Weheard arguments on my right here for the motion ranging from the notion that thecombined power of North and South America will be awesome, the notion that theeconomy of South American already matches that of China and the argument that Spanishis a mere variation of Portuguese.

On my left, against the motion, you heard the argument the region is, with a heavy heart,the buy word for debt, murder and dictatorship. You also had the suggestion that sizedoes matter and that the population of South America is just too small for superpowerstatus. You heard the call to look at the language people around the world are learningand that its not Spanish or Portuguese. So, those are some of the spirited argumentsmade just now. Before you heard those, you did vote and Im going to give you the resultof that prevote. It is the perfect result for a good debate evening. There were, for themotion, two hundred and thirty six votes; those who did think that we should, indeed, lookwest not east. And, against the ballot, very even, two-hundred seventy-nine. The reasonthat I say why its the ideal for a good evening is that the very large number of numbers ofdont knows reached two-hundred and one. And its those floating two-hundred one thatour six speakers will do their best, Im sure to woo and persuade this evening. Now is thechance for some of those floating voters to make their case. Lets get as many of these inas we can. Lets see some hands. There will be people with microphones who canhopefully get to you.

Theres someone straight out of the block there. If you can go to the gentleman there inthe blue shirt. I will not discriminate against people up there in the top, so in the evenmore expensive seats perhaps. So, well go with you first. Any other hands that arecoming up? Well, lets hear our first speaking.

Speaker from Audience:

I would love to believe in Mr. Guardiola Riveras future of a humane social demographic ofa hegemony in Latin America, but one thing that hasnt been addressed so far, I think, isthe sixty years history of the United States intervention in Latin America supportingsometimes overtly, sometime covertly, tyranny, and the tyrannical regimes in defense ofits own interests. And were not going to have Obama forever. We might well have a veryright-wing and very reactionary president next and perhaps some time may come wherewe will have diminishing resources, were going to have economic crisis. What is going tostop the United States from once again intervening in the politics and supporting its ownsuccess and once again, crushing that hope which has been outlined tonight?



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Thank you. If you give the mic to the person two rows behind you to someone there whohas a question. Why the microphone is reaching, well go up to the top here.

Audience Speaker #2:

If we think of base EPA as the basis of hard power, Id like to ask the for-panel how a

continent could ever be thought of as a super power?


Just explain what your doubt is?


Well, by which I mean, how can a number of countries actually directly intervene andexercise power as opposed to America, which is obviously one country and China, whichis obviously one country.


I see. One country, under one command. Very good, thank you. We have the third onehere.


No one has mentioned how different political systems might impact the development ofsay far east or China in particular compared to South America, referred to as a commonersystem in the former and in general more democratic system in the later. Second, and Idlike comments from the panel, second question is something that Niall Ferguson in a talk acouple of weeks ago referred to when he referred to his six killer apps that had explainedthe dominance of the West and that one of them was the Protestant work ethic. Maybethe panel might like to comment on how the Chinese work ethic and the religion thatunderpins that might differ from the primarily Catholic work ethic in South America. So,two different questions for the panel.


Are you suggesting that people in South America dont work as hard as people in . . .


Not at all, I asked the panel to comment on that.


Very good, I just thought we were straying slightly into Jeremy Clarkson territory there.[Laughter] Youve caught the attention of, of course, Mexico and of course a nationalstereotype there. But, were not straying into that territory. Why dont we go with the firstquestion which Ill put to the people who are against the motion first with this one.

Because the other two, I think relate to the people who are for the motion. Lets just startwith you, Bill Emmott on the sixty year Latin American intervention by the United States.


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The question has said there has been long history there. Whats to stop there to be areturning of that kind of medley? Lets hear you on that.

Against: Bill Emmott:

Well, nothing completely but whats the reason why we should expect it to intervene in the

future? The past history was substantially abut the cold war. The United States wasnt theonly outside power that was looking to intervene in the politics of Latin America. It was,unfortunately, a kind of proxy battle ground between the United States and the SovietUnion during the Cold War. Looking into the future, I think we could ask: What the interestof the United States in treading over there? Theyve been pretty reluctant to take part inthe intervention in Libya. They are scarred in Iraq and Afghanistan. Why would evenSarah Palin even intervene in Latin America? Does Sarah Palin even know where LatinAmerica is? [Laughter]

You cant see it from Alaska.


What is so amazing about that is that you have got a laugh even before you mentioned thejoke just by saying her name.


I know, thats right!


That says something about London audiences. You get a laugh just by saying the name.Now, lets give to you, Oscar Guardiola-Rivera this question about how can we speakmeaningfully about a super power if its made up of lots of countries instead of one. Interms of high power military power, there isnt one. How could we meaningfully speakabout a superpower, South America?

For:Oscar Guardiola-Rivera:

The ambassador of Brazil already pointed out, one of the advantages of the Americas, notjust Latin America, is the cultural homogeneity. As I mentioned, one of the most

interesting stories of the next thirty or forty years is going to be the Hispanicization of theUnited States. Nobody is taking that into account. This is the reason why the UnitedStates is not going to intervene in Latin America in the near future. Really? Were talkingabout the demographics of where are Latin Americans, who they are, who are they votingfor, who are they going to continue to vote for? Which means, the idea that some sort ofSarah Palin get into office, is not as likely as many people think. The cultural homogeneityof Latin America is an intellectual strength, a cultural strength. Meaning that, for us, itsmuch easier to interact with one another as a unity than it is in any other region of theworld. We Hispanic speakers in Latin America do not need to learn Portuguese. Wespeak our portojun and they understand us. They speak their Portuguese and weunderstand them. We have a common history. Ethnic-wise, we have plenty in common. I

dont know which thirteen year old, says my friend on the left, is talking to.


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I was watching anime, manga, when I was a kid. But now I ask my ten year old daughterwho is English, absolutely western country girl and she listens to Shakira. [Laughter] Thatsense of universality is what allows us to act as a unity. But most important of all, we arechanging the terms of the conversation as it comes to geopolitics. Thats what we mustdo. Geopolitics cannot continue to be about hard power and war as the normalinternational relations. It cannot, not because I have some ideal idea of the future, but

because it is unsustainable. The idea that you can sustains island of affluence amidst theoceans of the retched of the earth by meaningful force is completely bonkers.


Parag Khanna, do you want to come in on this particular point?

For: Parag Khanna:

I just want to add one very important additional point to what Oscar said. Were havingthis conversation about South America becoming a superpower despite lacking those hard

power credentials that the question is about. Despite the fact that Brazil gave up itsnuclear weapons program over twenty years ago. Still, you can have a conversation aboutSouth American is becoming super and that really proves Oscars point about the newmetrics of power.


Ambassador, why dont you respond to that and I also would like you to say somethingabout the point of the work ethic about the people of Brazil and the wider continent lackingwhat Niles Milfoksen called the silent killer of the Protestant work ethic. Say somethingabout that, then I want to hear Rana Mitter.


In relation to militarization, I think its very fair to say that, today one-sided militaryintervention is not as possible as it was one hundred years ago. A hundred years ago, itwas worse than it was fifty years ago. And Id say that fifty, even twenty years from now,its going to become more difficult. Its more balanced and the fact that you have individualmilitary power is no longer as important as it was. Were going to need, as I said,increased capacity or vertical relations, which is much more important than horizontalrelations that have predominated over the past. This is a very important fact that will

create different roles for different countries and will increase the visibility of the countriesthat have the parameters of being able to dialog with many other interlocutors.

In relation to the work ethic, this is a complex issue of course. You can ask, if in Europe,you have the work ethic of the Chinese. When in fact, the Chinese come to say that wedont have earn the work of currency, you earn the work of people and Ive heard theChinese say that. We work sixty hours a week, we work thirty five, how can you questionour currency? This is not fair. In Latin America, we work much more than thirty-five hoursa week. Of course, it is difficult to involve the cultural aspects of this. Im not very keen onthe Catholic versus Protestant issue, although Latin America is divided. Brazil is definitelypredominately Catholic. But I think the issue is different cultural influences. The

indigenous influences in some countries is very important. They contribute to a differentkind of work ethic. But I can tell you, even within Brazil we have this discussion between


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people from San Paulo and people from Rio de Janeiro. And the fact is, that, if you wantto have fun, you go to Rio, if you want to work, you go to San Paulo. [Laughter]

But the fact is, karaokes as I work very hard as well.


Very glad you said that. Thank you. Rana Mitter, you wanted to comment on the workethic issue?


Yes, briefly. With all the praise thats been given to Chinese work ethic. Im reminded of arestaurant I visited in China not that long ago when I waited ages and ages and theywouldnt serve us any food. They said that it was dinner time and they were very busywith their own meal than anyone elses. I wouldnt for a moment suggest that this istypical. What I think is really important in one of these kind of red herrings, the idea that

there is some sort of religious or ethnic or culturally dividable way of understanding workethic. I think misses the major point, which is to do with economics. At the moment, theChinese government is worried that the Chinese people have an overly strong work ethic.Because, for the time being, Chinese people are producing a great deal for the exportdriven economy and are not consuming nearly enough. So, if as they wish, China is goingto have to develop a very powerful domestic consumer economy to keep that growth rategoing.

The Chinese people are going to have to learn to play a little bit more and work a little bitless. And of course learn to have a bit of a welfare driven system that enables them to notto have to work every hour to make sure that they money to pay for hospital or educationalor pension type of bills. So, in a sense, I suspect that one of the things we are going tosee in the next twenty years that will add to Chinas economic growth, is the lessoningrather than the increasing of the work ethic in the classic sense and a bit more of aconsumption, I think.


Just put your hands up if weve got more contributions to come. While were waiting forthat, sorry, Gideon, why dont you come in on this.


Yes, one question that was raised from the floor and the talk and the big question thatpeople always raise about China is an unstable political system. Certainly in America ifyou talk about the rise of China the first thing or maybe the second thing people will say iswell, its all going to blow up isnt it because this isnt a stable country? And I think theyhave half a point. I dont think that China has made the political transition that it has to andIm sure there is a lot of instability in store for China. And yet I dont think that should thenlead you to the conclusion that oh well, this is some kind of mirage, the Chinese miracle. Itcertainly isnt that. This is a country that through Tiananmen Square and through theChinese financial crisis and now the global financial crisis has continued to grow pretty

fast. Its had recessions and so on. Even if there is a very difficult political transition, Idont think it will mean that China is suddenly taken off of the map geographically. Just tofinish, a comparison, if you look at Germany, its rise began in the middle of the 19 th


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century. Talk about turbulent, they had two world wars, a great depression, hyperinflation,etcetera. They were still a major economic power by 1950.


Thank you. Lets take a question there. Then were going to come over here.


Hi I would like to ask Gideon Rachman in which basis do you argue that Latin Americawont even lead intellectually? And, does China have any of its universities in its toptwenty of the world? Or do they do not have violence problems as well?


Thank you. Theres someone waiting patiently here. Then itll be you?


Hi, my question or comment is about a documentary I saw recently which was focused onBrazil. In that documentary, there were two things that came out from it. One of it wasshowing schools in Brazil, I dont know if they were British-American or Brazilian schools,but there were compulsory Mandarin lessons which were taught by teachers that wereemployed by the Chinese government that were teaching and living in Brazil. The secondcomment was about how local businesses in Brazil, particularly those that supplyincidentally bikinis, were going out of business because of the influx of cheap Chinesegoods and this was, in fact, the most touristic products in Brazil were actually made inChina. So, Id to invite the panel to comment on those two things.


Thank you. Somebodys way up there. Weve got a couple here. If you can be quick, wecan get all of you in. If we can get the microphone to the chap thats waiting here, thatll beit.


Yes, I wanted to ask about ambition. The U.S. has manifest destiny, which I mean thinks

in millennial terms, or the middle Kingdom. Indians really want a nuclear bomb, led thenonaligned nations. Does Latin America have the ambition? I think not and thats whytheyre more fun to have a drink with. But, for the purposes of the debate?


Thank you. Somebody waiting just behind you. Thank you.


I dont doubt Latin Americas intention to become a world superpower and obviously you

mentioned the U.S. taking them quite seriously in Obama being there. But Cameron hasvisited India and China since hes been in power. European kings do business with China.


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Africa is looking to China for investment. How to you change people mentality to look westin order or South America to become the 21st century superpower?


Thank you. No one else there? Yes, you. I think youll be the last one and then well go

back there.


Gideon touched on it a second ago. Im against the resolution. I think the inevitability ofthe rise of the East is on a sailable momentum. However, theres one crack in the dam forme and thats the potential or even pending revolution in China as they arm their middleclass with education, personal property and personal wealth. And Im surprised theaffirmative side did not explore and use that argument to a greater degree.


Thank you. Thats going to be it for questions. What were going to do now is move toclosing speeches. But, Im going to ask our speakers to address some of those. Gideon,there were some directed specifically to you. Were going to do the speeches in reverseorder. Just while youre working out that, Ill just give you a refresher on the questionsasked.

Gideon, Ill come to the questions when I come to you. But, the products in Brazil made inChina. Does Latin America have the ambition to do this? Isnt it just reality that Europeand Africa are looking to China? How do you persuade them otherwise? And isnt Chinavulnerable because of pending revolution and therefore maybe that gives South Americaan advantage. So, again were going in reverse. In closing remarks, maximum of reallyone and a half, two minutes. Rana Mitter.


Well, let me pick up with the very last point that was made. Its not hard to find out whatsgoing to happen with the Chinese middle classes because theyre all around us thesedays. At the university where I work, at Oxford, the second largest nationality of studentsthat I teach from any country on the undergraduate level is China. Just a generation ago,it wouldve been the Republic of Ireland just for obvious geographic reasons. Now, the

U.K. is number one, but China is number two. And I can see, particularly in theoreticalterms that a rising middle class will cause a revolution, particularly because of events inNorth Africa is an attractive one. But that isnt, so far, the overall message that comesfrom the Chinese side. Clearly they are more politically aware in some ways. But, thats adifferent thing from arguing that theres going to be absolute overthrow of the system. Itsprobably in that area that the continuing rise of China as well as of Indian and thecontinuing importance of Japan and the other powers of the Asian side make the case forus. In the last resort, we do have here these blocs which have some sort of collectiveidentity and as someone said in the audience, an aspiration. Whatever someone saidabout China and India today, its very clear that they have the intention of making theirweight known in global society. If you go to India, I was just in India last week, on the back

of any scooter or truck or car that is front of you in the traffic jam which there are many ofstill in India, there will be a hand-picked sign saying My India is great. Just next to thesign that says Horn please, danger. So, this is something that clearly sits in the cultural


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psyche. I am not convinced from what Ive heard that this exists on the Latin Americanside. Im less convinced that this is going to move into cyberspace and those other areaswhere I think these battles are going to be fought and won in the next century. This is notto endorse the rise of China, India, or Japan to say it is a good or bad thing, just assomeone has said that the moment the weight of the evidence sits there in the end ratherthan on the side of Latin America.


Thank you very much. Two points, when boxes are going around now for you two vote.Its very obvious if you want to vote for or against on the slip. But, if you are a dontknow, please put the entire ticket in the ballot box. Those people who are evenconsidering leaving, how could you bear the suspense. You have to wait to find out theresult until the end of this vote. So, dont even think about it. Were going to go to oursecond, we have a lock-in. Gideon Rachmans very democratic idea, to sit you here andforce you to vote and stay for the result. Perhaps hell be the next recipient of the GaddafiPrize for Human Rights? Who knows? [Laughter]

Our second speaker to sum up is Ambassador Juagaribe and there was a specificquestion for you ambassador. Brazil, a lot of the products you see are made in China.Does that underline Chinas strength?


Yes, well thank you very much. I think there are many issues related to the problem ofcompetitiveness of Chinese exports and manufacturer. In the case of Brazil, theres alsothe big issue of the over-evaluation of the currency which presents an imbalance in ourcompetitiveness in the commodity agricultural setting and difficulty in coping of theevaluation of our currency in the industrial sector. This is not a structural issue. We cansee the German case, which has a continuous history of valuation of their currency andhas maintained their effectiveness. There are possible alternatives to that. But there areno possible alternatives to you. We can do without bikinis, but nobody can do withouteating. Eating is continuously going to mobilize the countries that are going to be able tobe competitive producers. Latin America, South America in particular, are going tocontinue to be the most competitive producers of agriculture in the world, doing away withthe substitutes that some countries utilize. I think that the question as a summarization, Ibelieve that Latin America lacks the implacability to become and to wield a superpower ina traditional sense of what a superpower is. We dont have the implacability of what is

associated with superpowers. But, we have the ability to bring and impress the world indifferent way, which are going to be increasingly worthwhile and they related to dialog,they relate to seduction, they relate to convincing people and then telling people that theywere wrong. Thank you.


Thank you very much. The ambassador offering a modified 21st century definition of whata superpower is and on that definition, Latin America will be it. The next speaker to sumup, Gideon Rachman. The questions that were specifically to you was whats yourevidence for suggesting that Latin or South America cant lead intellectually and a question

was: Does China have a university in the global top twenty and Im sure theres violence inthose places too. But youll have other points youll want to make as well.


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On leading intellectually, now obviously Im not suggesting that there wont be majorintellectual contributions from individual Latin Americans and so that would be absurd. Idont think there is, yet for all that weve heard, ideas about the promotion of socialdemocracy, the emergence of dialog. I dont think theres much of a sense in the rest of

the world that theres a distinctive Latin American way that people can emulate or learnfrom yet. People say that there are interesting things going on in Brazil, followers of socialwelfare reform are interested in what Lulas done and so-on. But there is, to be honest, noreal global discussion of a Latin American way. By contrast, there is considerable interestin the Chinese model. People are conscious that theres an extraordinary story going onthere. The Chinese themselves have begun to pick up this talk of a Beijing consensus andtry to develop it. So I think that in terms of a continent being identified with a certain wayof doing things, there isnt much evidence that Latin America is getting there yet, certainlyby comparison to Asia. In a more conventional intellectual way, in terms of, as you say,are there Asian universities in the top 20? I dont know. Certainly in the top fifty. On theother hand, it is a Chinese ranking, so perhaps there would be. But, so let take perhaps a

more reliable statistic. Numbers of engineers. China is producing as so is India, hugenumbers of engineers, computer technicians. If you go to Brazil, you talk to multinationals,its one thing theyre very concerned about. Its hard to find skilled labor at the moment.So, these university rankings are picking up on something that is genuine. To conclude, Ithink it does all come back in terms of clout, political clout, economic clout, to the size ofthese economies and the rate at which with their growing. It must be true, I read it in TheEconomist, the Chinese economy is going to be on current growth projections, the largesteconomy in the world by 2019, bigger than that of the United States. The Brazilian mightbe the fifth largest economy in the world. Were not really talking about the same thing.


Thank you. Next to make his pitch for his vote, which youve already cast, nevertheless, tospeak for the motion in summing up fashion up fashion, Oscar Guardiola-Rivera.

For:Oscar Guardiola-Rivera:Let me just quote William Hagg, November 2010, Now is the time for Britain to at last,think afresh about Latin America in many measures. Latin America matters. Forexample, thirty five percent of global resource of fresh water and twenty five percent of theworlds cultivatable land, sixty two percent of the remaining rain forest in the world are inLatin America, forty percent of global biodiversity is in South America. Latin America is a

commodity powerhouse. Thirteen percent of oil and growing, thirty-four percent of copper,fifty-nine percent of coffee, forty-seven percent of sugar, the proven largest gas resourcein the world, and last but not least and I hear a lot about the Chinese model. Let me saythis, today all South American countries enjoy democracy and human rights. Lets leave itat that.


Thank you. Just let me tackle one question there because its a question that came fromthe floor, the notion that even if youre right, how can you go about persuading, the manmentioned was David Cameron, but even Africa to look to Latin America rather than the

questioner said, they are at the moment, rightly or wrongly, looking to China? Just addthat on to your remarks.


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For: Oscar Guardiola-Rivera:

Very modestly. You write books about it, such as What if Latin America Ruled theWorld? And people like Gideon have very kindly recommended them to their readers inthe Financial Times. Thats how you change peoples minds. Everywhere I go, Im asked,Ok, what if Latin America ruled the world? I always half-jokingly answer, Well, we would

all dance better. Thats how you change peoples minds.


Thank you. Our next summar-upper is speaking against the motion, Bill Emmott.


Well the first thing I would say is, that something of the atmosphere of some of thequestions and some of the comments up here on the panel suggest that its really still allabout us, which countries our leaders go to, whether we intervene in them, whether we will

invest. The fact is that the 21st century is not all about us. Its no longer something thatshould or I hope will revolve all around is. It should revolve a hell of a lot of countries inthe world. Above all, I believe it will, and I hope it will, revolve an enormous amountamong the part of the world that contains more than half of the worlds population, namelyAsia. The growth and development of Asia over the past century, but especially since1945, has been extraordinary and a wonderful period of human and political development.Most important, its been a period of steady democratization. 1945 there were nodemocracies in Asia, unless Ive forgotten one. Now, many of the countries of Asia aredemocracies and they keep of democratizing bit by bit as dictatorships move into a moremature, affluent period and democratization has happened, in South Korea, in Taiwan. In19

Debate: 'South America will be the C21st Superpower' 22 March 2011 - Transcript

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Transcript of Debate: 'South America will be the C21st Superpower' 22 March 2011 - Transcript