DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use...
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Transcript of DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011. 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use...
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- DDGS Supply/Demand Outlook EPAC June 8 2011
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- 2010 DDGS Market Record Production Record Domestic Use Record export year China Expanding Markets Pacific Rim Countries Expanded Capacity of PNW Myco-toxins
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- Supply
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- U.S. DDG Production and Exports
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- DDG Balance Table 2006- 072007-082008-092009-102010-112011-12 Carryin (Sep 1) Production13,95121,29426,42233,25337,31837,696 Imports191145251409550 Total Supply14,14221,43926,67333,66237,86838,246 Domestic Use12,36117,51821,70425,37829,86829,246 Exports1,7803,9214,9698,2838,5009,000 Total Use14,14121,43926,67333,66138,36838,246 Carryout (Aug 31) Export ratio12.8%18.4%18.8%24.9%22.8%23.9% X 1,000 Metric Tons
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- Demand Outlook
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- U.S. Cattle on Feed
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- U.S. Swine Industry Mycotoxin issues limited inclusion in 2010 Many buyers need to use DDG to profit from feeding at all Average inclusion of 30% in finishing rations, and 50% in gestation and lactation rations Recent usage at 60% in finishing rations
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- US Swine Industry Fastest growing user of DDG High priced corn and soybean meal persuades producers to higher inclusion rates $ per pound of gain DDG valued for its protein, energy, phosphorus, and intestinal health benefits
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- USDA U.S. Swine Industry
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- Pro Exporter
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- Exports
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- U.S. DDG Production and Exports
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- Export Table Country2009 YR2010 YR Jan/Mar 2010 Jan/Mar 2011 % Change Net Change World Total5,650,9648,998,0461,872,7922,019,8768147,084 China542,4242,528,697335,311323,414-4-11,897 Mexico1,458,4351,644,641439,485506,0241566,539 Canada819,7431,021,185254,205218,721-14-35,484 South Korea269,854506,475157,24770,797-55-86,450 Vietnam250,638431,133110,845118,10877,263 Turkey377,707395,22014,16027,2299213,069 Thailand297,545291,36453,53580,3315026,796 Ireland100,623275,06884,57766,726-21-17,851 Indonesia200,741252,08052,50550,309-42,196 Japan221,800217,53659,00157,949-2-1,052 In Metric Tons
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- FOB US GULF & CORN PRICES US Grains Council
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- China 2010 Imports up 466% from 2009 2011 Imports currently down 4% Anti-Dumping Lawsuit against U.S. producers At current pace China will import 50% less than 2010
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- Mexico 2010 Imports up 11% Current 2011 imports up 18% High priced corn and freight advantage Lack of gulf demand led to increase export numbers Sorghum planting down 5%
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- Canada Consistently top 3 importer of DDG Imported 819,743 tons 2009 2010 imported 1,021,085 tons Up 24% from 2009
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- Exports Cont. South Korea 2010 Imports up 187% Hoof and Mouth Disease 2011 imports down 55% Turkey 2010 imports up 5% 2011 up 92% High growth potential GMO issues
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- Product Transparency Know what you are buying Weekly nutrient profile testing Get more out of your purchase
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- Product Transparency
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- Anticipated Specifications of Great Falls DDGS 36% to 42% protein 4% to 6% fat More Complete Amino Acid Profile Better handling Characteristics than corn DDGS
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- Ethanol
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- Copyright 2011 DTN/The Progressive Farmer (A Telvent Brand). Reprinted by Permission
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- Ethanol Production Margins
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- Thank You www.ddgs.umn.edu