Daytona Sessions vol.1 - Johan Ragnevad - Five years - an Internet eternity, a mobile operator...
Transcript of Daytona Sessions vol.1 - Johan Ragnevad - Five years - an Internet eternity, a mobile operator...
5 years – An Internet eternity, a mobile operator “soon”
Lessons learned from more than ten years of struggle
1 November 2007Daytona Sessions, Stockholm
Johan Ragnevad
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inCode Strategy & Technology Group provides Telecoms and Media industry clients with a complete range of business consulting services
Market analysis and business strategy
Market analysis and Market analysis and business strategybusiness strategy
Supply chain and financial analysisSupply chain and Supply chain and financial analysisfinancial analysis
Technology strategyTechnology strategyTechnology strategy
Spectrum strategies and usages
Architecture roadmap options
Technology and vendor evaluations
Operational requirements: OSS, BSS, CRM
License bid strategy and bid preparation
Market research, competitor analysis and strategy options
Trial and launch plan development and management
Business demand modeling
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Procurement and Strategic Sourcing: RFPs, vendor selection and management
Customer loyalty and churn management
Investment supportInvestment supportInvestment support
Business opportunity assessments
Financial analysis
Technical and Market due diligence
Operational strategies
...to customers from BBC, Microsoft, Nokia and Ericsson, to NTT DoCoMo, Sprint, 3, Verizon and Xfera
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Five years on...Has our message changed?
Northstream report, Autumn 2001 ”Bitpipe is not an ugly word”The 3G Business Case
-Bid Book vs Reality
”Enable horizontally layered service network capabilities”
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The mobile phone changed a multi-decade old stable growth curve
Source: Gapminder
GSM
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Internet has moved from niche to everybody’s content & communication platform in 15 years
Source: Gapminder
PC Subsidies
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While the Telecom world focussed on carrier-grade quality and features, the market chose the good-enough and coolest
WAPGPRS
ISDNX.400 digitel
MMS
3G
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One ecosystem works... (finn fem fel)
$
$$ Third parties
$ $ $
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Separation of access from content has not materialised in the mobile world
End usersApplication
Service Developers
Operators
End usersApplication
Service Providers
Internet ServiceProviders
Access
Applications/Services
Access
Applications/Services
Internet
”Mobile Internet”
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Something has happened...
Mobile Data Traffic
2006 2007
HSPA/3G(EDGE)
Flat fee
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Mobile operators still(!) can enable key capabilities addressingInternet limitations
Identify!
Alert!
Pay!
More than
2.8 Billion
mobile phones
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So, when? Soon??Not if done the old-fashioned telecoms way...
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Several MMS infrastructure
contracts signed
Inter-working established in
US
Standards bodies 3GPP and 3GPP2 cooperate to
try and enable MMS
interworking
National interworkingcommon in Europe, but globally, still
on the drawingboard
MMS development in networksApproximate timeline
1990s
MMS standardized by
3GPPMMS traffic is growing,
especially in Europe and North America
MMS service
launched by nearly all
operators in Europe*
* Informa, ”Mobile Communications”, 18 March 2003
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Vodafone live! is dead,Long live the mobile Internet!
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A range of approaches will continue to be seen for a couple of years…
Web-basedmobile services
Proxy-basedmobile browser
Mobile operator WAP portal
Bespoke handset centric solutions
Choice of content
Operator service creation involvement
Dedicated server No Yes Yes Yes
# of supporting handsets
Service examples
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Opening up network capabilities in a web-centric manner is a logical step in the evolution of the network operator business
Required level of operator involvement
in service creation
High
Medium
Low
Incremental service
revenues
Number of services
Core operator revenuesCore operator revenues
VAS revenuesVAS revenues
““Long tailLong tail”” revenuesrevenues
Examples: Premium SMS, MMS, mobile portal services, Blackberry, mobile TV,
navigation, etc.
High
Medium
Low
Operator “capability retailing”: Services created by SME, SOHO, individual
developers or private individuals
Voice, data, SMS, voice mailA web-centric approach canlead to cost benefits in theVAS revenue segment, andopen up the new “long tail”
revenue segment
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Aiming at “long tail” revenues in a web-centric model can be a wayfor operators to foster and benefit from innovation
Operator offering:• Open API access• Sample apps, SDKs• Simple pricing• Nationwide operator
access
End-to-end services:• Media downloads• Content sharing • Communities• Navigation (GPS)• Messaging
New revenues from:• 3rd parties and
private persons creating services
• Transforming selectedideas into own-branded services
Technology and business Technology and business enablers for enablers for ““capability capability
retailingretailing””
A: “Bit-pipe” scenario: Device vendors and Internet companies aiming at increasing their share of customer ownership
A: “Bit-pipe” scenario: Device vendors and Internet companies aiming at increasing their share of customer ownership
Operator networkOperator network
Data flat rate plansData flat rate plans
B: “Web-centric” scenario: Operators positioning themselves as innovation enablersB: “Web-centric” scenario: Operators positioning themselves as innovation enablers
Example initiatives:• Nokia Ovi• Apple iTunes• Samsung FunClub• Yahoo Go• “Google phone”
Operator networkOperator network
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There is no five-year plan for the Internet, but a manifest and predictions can still be used to enable ”mobile internet”
”It’s the value pipe, stupid”
Mobile operators will
- Embrace the dominating end-user business model of separating access from content
- Acknowledge that a free market approach with creative chaos is more likely to increase mobile internet user value
- Aim at free distribution to build user base and subsequently capture long tail & advertising revenues
- Excel at access
- Enable continued Internet innovation towards mobile, identifiable, immediately reachable and paying-capable users
– an eternity on the Internet:
iTunes: Four years to 3 billion songs sold
Youtube: 18 months from launch to acquisition for USD 1.65 billion
Facebook: 3.5 years to become the 7th most visited website in the world
–”soon” in the telecoms world:
MMS: Five years from first device to today’s usage
3G: Five years to reach 150 million devices