Analogous reserve distribution and tissue characteristics ...
Day 3 Analogous, estimates and semantics for process
Transcript of Day 3 Analogous, estimates and semantics for process
Estimation course
Introducing
ANALOGOUS ESTIMATE
This is how Mgt views your estimates
This is how they will treat the estimates
Take your time and do them well
Analogous estimates
What is an analogy?
Analogy explained
Steps to analogy
1. Find out the parameters of project2.Find the project from past which
maps best3.Find out the changes as they are
today4.Account for the changes5.Compute the estimates
Examples
Building a standard home
6 months
Road trip to Ladakh on a Pulsar
15 Calendar days
Analogous Estimates are applicable when
The following are available1.Historical records2.High Congruence3.Trustable data4.Same units5.Variance in operatingConditions known
Analogous :
Project Parameters, Performance details of previous projects . Minor variance in operating conditions
Precise Inputs
Precise Output
Project Likely timeLikely cost
Typical timelines
http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745
Process Semantics
Action Block
I
STARTING INPUT
TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MAIN OUTPUT
BYPRODUCTS& WASTE
FEEDBACK LOOP
Estimation in Windows copy file dialog
Top down and bottoms up
Assignment on Expert judgment
1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing . The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to a Naval vessel and do the final rites .
2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the
operation .4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation : http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_Spear
What’s Your Message? DRIVE WELL