Day 13: Problems: Numbers and Causes

Daniel J. Mallinson

School of Public AffairsPenn State Harrisburgmallinson@psu.edu

PUBPL 304

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Road map

Discuss how numbers and causal stories frameproblems

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Problem Definition

Symbols

Numbers

Causes

Interests

Decisions

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Who to count?

Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria

Who should do the counting?

Bureau of Labor and StatisticsDo not have a job

Actively looked in last 4 weeks

Currently available for work

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Challenges to Criteria

Wrongful Exclusion

Wrongful Inclusion

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Numbers as Metaphor

Example: Three-fifths Compromise

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Numbers and Storytelling

Hidden Stories

Aura of expertise and authority

Precision, accuracy, objectivity

Enumeration implies importance (competence)

Assertion of clear boundaries

Creates a community

Implies a solution

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The Rise of the Infographic

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Causation

What is causing climate change?

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Causation

Science

Quest to explain the world; find “the” cause

Politics

Assignment of responsibility

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Types of Causal Theories

Consequences

Actions Intended Unintended

Unguided Mechanical Cause Accidental Cause

Guided Intentional Cause Inadvertent Cause

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Accidental CauseUnintended consequences from unguided actionsExamples:

Natural disastersFateBad luck

Strong defenseAvoid blame

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Intentional Cause

Intended consequencesfrom guided actionExamples:

OppressionConspiricyKnown, but ignored, sideeffects“Bad apples”Blame the victim (hard)

Strong offense

Demand accountability

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Mechanical Cause

Intended consequences from unguided action

Examples:

Machines gone badEichmann Defense

Weak offense/defense

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Inadvertent Cause

Unintended consequences from guided action

Examples:

Unanticipated side effectsAvoidable ignoranceCarelessnessBlaming the victim (soft)

Weak offense/defense

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A Political Contest

Not just about finding “the” cause

Claimant

Show that previously-assumed natural cause is anintentional/inadvertent harm

Respondent

Claim strongest position possible, then blame shift, then take weakerposition, then claim inadvertent harm

Law and Science

Legitimize claims of causation

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A Political Contest

“In the polis, causal stories need to be fought for,defended, and sustained.” (Stone, 223)

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Using Causal Claims

Challenge or reinforcethe status quo

Assign responsibility andcost

Give authority to “fixers”

Create new alliances

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