David Shambaugh-Asia in Transition

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The Asian subsystem of the global order is

experiencing substantial change. New fea-tures are appearing while old characteristicsare redefined. Traditional hard power factors nowinteract with emerging soft power issues. No singleaspect is dominantinstead, a number of factorsoperate simultaneously and, taken together, consti-tute the regional order. Analysts, scholars, journal-ists, and government policy makers all need toreadjust their perspectives and view the regionthrough multiple prisms in order to take fullaccount of this evolving and complex system. Com-

fortable paradigms are insufficient to explain newrealities or prescribe helpful policy options.Realism, liberalism, and constructivismthe three

predominant international relations paradigmsalloffer insights into trends that characterize the region.Realists perceive classic power balancing and hedg-ing between major states (the United States andChina, Japan and China, India and China) andemphasize growing military capacities and action-reaction security dilemmas. Liberals observe inten-sifying intraregional economic, social, andtechnological interdependence and multilateralarrangements among states and nonstate actors thatserve as constraints on great power competition andthe potential for conflict. Constructivists believe thatcommon norms and a pan-regional identity are tak-ing root among many Asian societies.

While each is valid and insightful to a certainextent, none of these prominent paradigms can

explain the totality of regional interactions in Asia

today. Nor can any metatheory explain it better.What can be discerned are five defining featuresthat collectively capture the current complexitiesand essence of international relations in Asia.

THE HUB AND SPOKESFirst, the US-led security system remains the pre-

dominant regional security architecture across Asia.This system includes five bilateral alliances in EastAsia; non-allied security partnerships in SoutheastAsia, South Asia, and Oceania; a buildup of US

forces in the Pacific; newUS

-India andUS

-Pakistanmilitary relationships; and the US military presenceand defense arrangements in Southwest and Cen-tral Asia. Taken together, these comprise the domi-nant security architecture spanning Asia.

The alliance system is commonly referred to asthe hub and spokesmodel, with the United Statesserving as the hub of a wheel and with each of thefive bilateral alliances (Australia, Japan, SouthKorea, the Philippines, and Thailand) serving as thespokes. The system has benefited the United Statesand its Asian allies for more than five decades andhas been the primary regional security architecturesince the end of the Vietnam War. It has been cen-tral to the maintenance of strategic stability andeconomic development throughout East Asia. EvenChina has benefited from the security and stabilityengendered by the system, which has provided anenvironment conducive to Chinas recent explosiveeconomic development.

During the second Clinton administration, butparticularly during the tenure of President George W.Bush, the United States has sought to strengtheneach of these bilateral alliances. In the case of the US-Australian alliance, this has involved stepped-up

DAVID SHAMBAUGH, a Current History contributing editor, is aprofessor of political science and international affairs and direc-

tor of the China policy program at George Washington Univer-sity. He is the editor of Power Shift: China and Asias NewDynamics (University of California Press, 2005).

The emerging and evolving Asian system today is a mixture of realist, liberal,and constructivist elementswith major powers vying for influence, whileinterdependence deepens, and behavioral norms and multilateral institutionsdevelop. Such cross-trends may not make for conceptual clarity, but they doconstitute the current reality.

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Asia in Transition:The Evolving Regional Order

DAVID SHAMBAUGH


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diplomatic consultations, joint military training, andintelligence sharing, as well as the prepositioning ofsupplies and logistics support. Australia has also con-tributed to the coalition of the willingby deploy-ing troops to Iraq, and President Bush and PrimeMinister John Howard have forged a close bond.

In the case of Japan, the strengthening of the

alliance has involved collaboration on theater mis-sile defense, a troop realignment that has reducedOkinawas burden in hosting US forces, and theissuance in 2005 of a Joint 2+2 Statementonmutual security interests (which outlined 12 com-mon strategic objectives, including a controversialclause identifying Taiwan as a matter of mutualsecurity concern).

The US Global Defense Posture Review envisionschanges in deployments and command structuresthat increase joint military interoperability and that

further facilitate Japansinvolvement in global peace-keeping operations. Wash-ington has also pushed forJapan to assume a larger rolein Asian regional maritimesecurity (anathema to anumber of Asian states), increase its defense spend-ing, modernize its forces, and contribute more tointernational peacekeeping. Japans unprecedenteddeployment of forces to Iraq has commanded respect

in the White House and Pentagon, even if it hascaused consternation elsewhere.

The US-South Korea alliance has undergoneredefinition, insofar as the Pentagon has decidedto redeploy some forces out of central Seoul andaway from the Demilitarized Zone, in line with abroader rethinking of South Korean defenses. Butthe alliance has also experienced substantial ten-sion because of rising anti-Americanism in SouthKorea as well as divisions between Seoul andWashington over the handling of the North Korean

nuclear crisis.The US-Philippines and US-Thailand alliances

have also been upgraded. Both have been desig-nated as major non-NATO allies, thus makingthem eligible for large security assistance packages.In both cases, cooperation on counterterrorismoperations has assumed a central place in jointtraining and other assistance.

While the military components of each of thesealliances have been upgraded, the political dimen-sions of some have experienced significant strain in

recent years. In a few cases they have been strainedpolitically because of the military components. In

South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, the behaviorof US forces has created fervent frictions with localcommunities. The broad global policies of the Bushadministration have deepened these tensions in somecases. Relations with China have been a further irri-tant in a few alliances, with Australia, South Korea,and Thailand all drawing closer to Beijing than some

in the Bush administration would like. These gov-ernments have indicated that they do not intend tocompromise their ties with China just to pleaseWashington. In other words, these allies are nowseeking to balance their ties with the United Statesand China, rather than continuing their singularstrategic tilt toward the United States.

Chinas growing, and Americas declining, popu-larity among US allies has been further evidenced inpublic opinion polling. A recent survey of Aus-tralians, conducted by the Lowy Institute in Sydney,

found that 69 percent hadpositive feelingstowardChina, while only 58 per-cent felt likewise about theUnited States. Polling inSouth Korea and Thailandreveals an even greater gap

in favor of China. Only in Japan is there a clear pub-lic preference for the United States over China.

Meanwhile, in addition to strengthening themilitary components of its alliances, the United

States has moved to solidify non-allied securitypartnerships with India, Mongolia, Pakistan, andSingapore. In each case, these security partner-ships involve joint exercises, training, intelligencesharing, arms sales, military educationalexchanges, and a wide range of military assistanceprograms. Indonesia has also recently re-qualifiedfor US military assistance programs (after a decadehiatus), Malaysia has quietly begun to buy largeamounts of US weaponry, and military-to-militaryexchanges have commenced between the United

States and Vietnam. In Central Asia, the UnitedStates has maintained air bases in Uzbekistan andKyrgyzstan in connection with the ongoing warsin Iraq and Afghanistan.

Each of these security partnerships is significantin its own right; but taken together, they stronglysupplement the five bilateral alliances in East Asiaand help form a dense web of security and militarypartnerships between the United States and themajority of Asian nations stretching from Northeastto Southwest Asia. Only North Korea, Laos, China,

Cambodia, Burma, and Nepal lie outside thepurview of US defense arrangements.

154 CURRENT HISTORY April 2006

If relations between China and Japan

are not stable, East Asia is not stable.


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Notable too is the fact that these alliances andsecurity partnerships geographically ring China.This is no accident, and represents US hedgingagainst the potential for strategic rivalry withChinaa strategy that is led by the Pentagon. ThePentagons new Quadrennial Defense Review makesclear that China is seen by Defense Department

planners as the only prospective strategic competi-tor on the horizon, and the review stipulates a sub-stantial redeployment of US forces to the Pacifictheater for this reason.

In addition to strategic partnering with variousAsian nations, the United States has undertaken itsown unilateral military buildup in the Pacific. Inparticular, Guam is being developed into a forwardbase of major significance. The forces deployedthere are directly relevant to China and potentialcontingencies in the Taiwan Strait or the Korean

Peninsula, but could also be used for deploymentsinto the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, and broaderMiddle East. Andersen Air Force base on Guam ishome to the 13th Air Force command, and includesgrowing numbers of B-1, B-2, and B-52 strategicbombers, long-range transports, reconnaissance air-craft, jet fighters, in-flight refueling tankers, andother aircraft. Guam is now also home to a growingnumber of Los Angelesclass nuclear attack sub-marines and surface combatant ships. Considera-tion is being given to basing an aircraft carrier battle

group at the island. And the Third Marine Expedi-tionary Force is being relocated to Guam from Oki-nawa. A similar strengthening of US forces inHawaii, Alaska, and the West Coast of the UnitedStates supplements the buildup in Guam.

Despite its pervasiveness, the US-led security sys-tem cannot be said to be truly and fully regional. Anumber of countriesmost notably Chinaremainunaffiliated, and have no compelling reasons tojoin. Nonetheless, it is this US-led system ofalliances and partnerships that provides for regional

stability and securitypublic goods from which allAsian nations benefit.

PROACTIVE CHINAA second feature of the emerging regional

orderand one of the most significant develop-ments of the past decadeis Chinas proactiveengagement of its periphery. Chinas new regionalposture is reflected in virtually all policy sphereseconomic, cultural, diplomatic, and strategicandthis parallels Chinas increased activism on the

global stage. In each of these realms, Chinas effortsand progress in reaching out to its neighbors have

been truly impressive (with the notable exceptionsof Japan and Taiwan).

As China has reached out, its neighbors havereciprocated and have redefined their relations withBeijing. As Chinas influence continues to grow,some of these countries are looking to Beijing forregional leadership or, at a minimum, are taking

Chinas views and sensitivities more into account.Even those less certain of Beijings short-termmotives and long-term strategy recognize the ben-efits of binding China into a web of institutionalarrangements that will constrain its potential fordisruptive regional behavior.

Overcoming its earlier hesitancy to engage inregional multilateral forums, China since 1998 hastaken an active role in many of the groups. Beijinghas also worked hard to address and alleviate one ofthe regions most contentious issues: the North

Korean nuclear crisis. The Chinese governmentsgeneral embrace of regional multilateralism is signif-icant, since no regional institution can be consideredeffective unless China is an active participant. Bei-jings engagement in regional diplomacy places itincreasingly at the center of all regional issues, bilat-eral and multilateral. And Chinas growing centralityto the economic and technological networks of pro-duction and supply chains that crisscross the regionserves as a stabilizing factor.

Bilaterally and multilaterally, Beijings diplomacy

has been remarkably adept and nuanced, earningpraise throughout the region. As a result, mostnations in Asiawith the exception of Japannowsee China as a good neighbor, constructive partner,and status quo regional power. This Asian perspec-tive is striking, given that just a few years ago manyof Chinas neighbors voiced growing concerns aboutthe possibility of China becoming a domineeringregional hegemon and powerful military threat.Today these views are more muted.

Even former adversaries such as Vietnam, India,

Indonesia, South Korea, and Russia now enjoysound and steadily improving ties with Beijing. Tobe sure, Beijings strained relations with Japan are amajor blight on this otherwise positive trend, andsome countries (particularly Singapore, Vietnam,and India) are hedging their bets by strengtheningties with the United States. Overall, however, Chinascooperative diplomacy has become a definingandpositivefeature of the emerging regional order.

HEDGED ENGAGEMENT

The third significant feature of the regional orderis the evolving relationship between the United

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States and China. This complex relationship is cur-rently characterized by substantial cooperation onbilateral, regional, and global issues. Yet, despite thistangible and positive cooperation, there remain evi-dent suspicions and distrust of the others motivesand actions. As a result, the state of Sino-Americanrelations today may be characterized by David M.

Lamptons term hedged engagement: both sidesare engaging to a significant extent, yet are hedgingagainst the possibility of a deterioration of ties.Looking to the future, the Sino-American relation-ship is likely to continue to exhibit these paradoxi-cal features.

Although both nations occasionally display tradi-tional balance-of-power and strategic hedging prac-tices, it should be recognized that Sino-Americancooperation is real. And bilateral interdependencehas never been thickeras evidenced by Chinas

vast holdings of US Treasury bonds, a trade rela-tionship worth more than $200 billion annually,growing societal interactions, and the attention thateach country pays to the other.

Further, it must be recognized that the absence ofSino-American antagonism is an important featureof the regional order. While some Asian countriesmay hedge against either US or Chinese regionaldominationand acquire whatever resources andbenefits they can from both China and the UnitedStatesevery one of these countries seeks a stable,

cooperative Sino-American relationship. Should Bei-jing and Washington one day confront each other, allregional states would experience their worst night-mare: they would be put in the position of having tochoose sides, and this they seek to avoid at all costs.

There are, of course, tensions in the relationship.For Washington, the ballooning trade deficit is pri-mary, while Chinas human rights record and mediacensorship have risen on the US agenda. Taiwan isalways a potentially volatile issue, but both sidesappear to have worked well together to manage it

and contain the Chen Shuibian governments inde-pendence inclinations. Intellectual property rightsare another notable concern. Chinas military mod-ernization is viewed warily by Washington, the Pen-tagon in particular. Chinas relations with the roguestates of Burma, Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, and Zim-babwe have also drawn critical attention in Wash-ington. Meanwhile, the US security partnerships andmilitary buildup in the Pacific are of concern to Bei-jing. None of these issues, however, are grounds fora significant cleavage in the relationship.

The principal tasks before Washington and Bei-jing are thus to manage these issues, maximize

cooperation, engage in regular and candid dia-logue, and minimize strategic competition. Thisrequires regular, institutionalized exchangesbetween the two governments and militaries at alllevels. Reducing misperceptions and enhancingtrust should be a priority.

Dialogue is no guarantor of agreement, but it is

an important confidence-building measure that canlead to tangible cooperation. The past few yearshave witnessed significantly increased bilateral dia-logue in all sectors and at all levels, including a spe-cial channel between Deputy Secretary of StateRobert Zoellick and Chinese Deputy Foreign Min-ister Dai Bingguo. The breadth and depth of the dia-logue represent the true institutionalization of tiesand are a positive indicator that a floorexistsbeneath the often fluctuating relationship.

SOURING CHINA-JAPAN TIESWhile Sino-American relations are characterizedby a mixture of engagement and hedging, with sig-nificant cooperation and extensive exchanges, unfor-tunately the same cannot be said for Sino-Japaneserelations. This relationship between two of Asias fourleading powers (India and the United States beingthe others) has progressively atrophied in recentyears. It is on the verge of being politically and diplo-matically dysfunctional, despite the robust economicrelationship between the two nations. Some describe

it as hot economics, cold politics,but in fact therelationship is more complex than that.

Suspicions, nationalism, and hostility run deepin each society. Mutual perceptions are increasinglynegative, as measured by numerous public opinionpolls in each country. The history issuehangs as adark cloud over the entire relationship, andrepeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrinewhichhonors Japanese war deadby Japanese PrimeMinister Junichiro Koizumi are a frequent andunnecessary irritant. To make matters worse, the

potential for military engagements over disputedmaritime claims in the East China Sea/Sea of Japanand around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands is growing.Japan also views Chinas military modernization asunnecessary, even threatening (with China express-ing similar concerns about Japans military).

This is a combustible environment. The maritime-energy dispute could ignite a broader confrontationthat could quickly escalate, and would put theUnited States into a delicate and uncomfortableposition. Given its alliance with Japan, Washington

would have little choice but to side with Tokyo inany such dispute.



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The atrophy in relations needs to be arrestedimmediately, and a series of confidence-buildingmeasures established. The United States can, andshould, play a constructive role in this process.

The deteriorating Sino-Japanese relationship isnot simply a bilateral matterit has implicationsacross the region. If relations between China and

Japan are not stable, East Asia is not stable. Fur-thermore, Sino-Japanese instability is becoming aninherent danger in Sino-American relations. TheUnited States risks being drawn into a confronta-tion with China over Japans behavior.

American national interests are, of course, bestserved by functional and cooperative relationsalong all three sides of the US-China-Japan triangle.This was the case from the 1970s through the1990s, when Washington enjoyed positive ties withboth for the first time in a century, but such sym-

metry has dissolved over the past few years. Today,the United States must balance its strategic andeconomic interests withboth China and Japan,not simply tilt towardJapan.

Washington should useits considerable leverageto urge Japan to deal inan effective manner withthe history issue by emulating a German-style sus-

tained domestic effort in educating the publicabout the causes and consequences of Japansaggression during World War II. President Bushshould also urge Prime Minister Koizumi to ceaseimmediately his visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, andto remove the remains of the World War IIeraClass A war criminals interred there. Truth andhistorical reconciliation commissions should alsobe established.

Much work needs to be done in this domainand as long as the US government remains silent

and unresponsive on this issue, it is seen by Chinaand other Asian nations as complicit in Japansobstinate behavior. Japan may seek to become anormal nationand even aspires to a seat on theUN Security Council. Washington has been sup-portive of both goals, but as long as Tokyo fails toeffectively deal with the history issue it will neverhave a normal relationship with its Asian neighbors.(Koreans and many Southeast Asians feel as pas-sionately as do Chinese about the issue.) It is not inUS national interests for Japan to be so isolated from

its own region and tethered solely to its alliancewith the United States.

THE NEW SECURITY COMMUNITYThe fifth and final defining feature of the evolv-

ing Asian order is the gradual emergence of aregional security community and growing multilat-eral architecture that is based on a series of increas-ingly shared norms about interstate relations andsecurity. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations

(ASEAN) Regional Forum, or ARF, is the cornerstoneof this emerging regional community, but theShanghai Cooperation Organization and the SouthAsia Association for Regional Cooperation are alsoimportant components. These organizations areforms of cooperative, rather than collective, security.Chinas growing embrace of them is a positive signand may move the region gradually in the directionof further institutionalization. Asian nations are alsoincreasingly engaging in combined military exer-cisessome US-led, some bilateral.

In the area of nontraditional security, effectiveintraregional cooperation is already occurring in a

wide variety of areas,including economic secu-rity, nonproliferation,resource management,public health, counter-terrorism, illicit narcotics,smuggling, piracy, orga-nized crime, human traf-

ficking, container security, and disaster relief. Energy

security is an issue ripe for multilateral cooperation.Although the growth of multilateralism in Asia

has had a late start compared with Europe or theAmericasand it has a long way to go to reachcomparable levels of institutional integrationthere has nonetheless been significant progress inrecent years. One reason for the increase in thenumber of dialogues, groupings, and multilateralmechanisms in Asia has been the growing accep-tance of common norms within the region. Oncenorms are institutionalized, they have a kind of

binding effect on member states. The diversity ofAsian societies, cultures, and economic and politi-cal systems will be a challenge for Asian states toovercome, but there are increasing signs of norma-tive convergence around the region.

Growing regional multilateral cooperation mir-rors the intensifying interdependence that is occur-ring throughout Asia. This feature of the evolvingAsian system is oriented not around security affairsor major power relations, but around an increasinglythick web of economic, scientific, technological, cul-

tural, societal, educational, and other ties beingforged among Asians in an era of accelerating glob-


Regional interdependencea rapidly

accelerating trendserves as a

powerful deterrent to conflict.


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alization. The core actor in this process is not thenation-state but a plethora of nonstate actors thatcreate links at the societal level: trade, investment,transport, communications, education, research,tourism, and other forms of daily interaction.

Indeed, they point up another significant way inwhich the Asian region is changing: its traditional

geographic subcomponentsNortheast Asia,Southeast Asia, South Asia, Southwest Asia, andCentral Asiaare no longer useful intellectual con-structs for dividing or distinguishing the macro pro-cesses occurring throughout the region. In thetwenty-first century, these five subregions are allincreasingly interconnected and interdependent atnumerous levels.

Regional interdependencea rapidly acceleratingtrendserves as a powerful deterrent to conflict, andis conducive to peace and stability (including across

the Taiwan Strait). Yet, as profound as this dynamicis, interdependenceby itself is insuffi-cient to establish adominant regionalsystem in Asia. Itdoes not operate atthe nation-state level,nor does it neces-sarily require the creation of security arrangementsfeatures that any truly regional system must exhibit.

SHAPES OF THINGS TO COMEAsia remains a tremendously complex region,

composed of no fewer than 30 states. Globalizationand the regions new regional dynamics have onlymade it more multifaceted. In thinking about theuniverse of systemic possibilities for the Asian orderin the future, a number of options are conceivable.Although some of these seem unlikely, it is impor-tant to consider the full range of possibilities.

One future is a hegemonic system, dominated by

a single major power. Primary candidates includethe United States and China, but neither appears tohave the requisite composite strength and influenceto dominate the region. When China was weak andinsular (from the 1950s to the 1980s), the UnitedStates was the dominant regional power, if nothegemon. But the riseof China and India, thecontinued economic weight of Japan, and theincreased normative influence of ASEAN have con-tributed to diminishing American dominance. TheUnited States may still be the dominant military

power in the region today, but even US power is notomnipotent. As one Southeast Asian diplomat sug-gested to me, The United States may still hold the

balance of power in Asia, but no longer the balanceof influence.

A second possibility is major power rivalry result-ing in a balance-of-power system, characterized bytwo competing major powers: the United States andChina. A number of observers, most notably AaronFriedbergthe Princeton University realist theorist

and former Bush administration adviserposit thisas the most likely (or even current) defining natureof the region. If this were the case, one would seecompeting blocs of nations aligned or allied withthe United States and China, an overtly adversarialtenor in bilateral Sino-American relations, militarydeployments geared to countering the other, and arange of economic and technological sanctionsagainst each other.

While there is evidence that the US military foot-print and deployments in Asia are increasingly

geared to China contingencies (a form of unilateralsoft containment),they are also use-ful for other con-flict scenarios aswell (in the Per-sian Gulf and Korea).Nor does one seethe kind of strate-

gic alignments taking shape to suggest a balance-of-power system. Most important, as noted earlier,

the United States and Chinese governments arecurrently cooperating on a broad range of regionaland global issues, and the two nationseconomiesand societies are inextricably bound together.

A variant of this, but a distinct third possibility,is the theory of structural asymmetry and inevitableclash between the main established power (theUnited States) and the main rising power (China).Such an alternative is distinct because it rejects thepossibility of a balance of power, and argues insteadthat it is an iron law of the history of international

relations that all powers seek hegemony.This argument is most forcefully made by John

Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago. Wherethe classic realist view of international relations ispremised on the Hobbesian notion that the interna-tional system is inherently anarchical, and thus needseither a balance of two major powers or a singledominant-but-benevolent hegemon to keep thepeace, Mearsheimers structural asymmetry schoolis more Darwinian in its core argument. In his book,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, and a recent

article in Foreign Policy, Clash of the Titans,Mearsheimer contended that all major powersinevitably seek global hegemony, and that China is


Most nations in Asiawith the exception of Japan

now see China as a good neighbor, constructive

partner, and status quo regional power.


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no different. On this basis he predicts an inevitableclash between the United States (the establishedpower and global hegemon) and China (the risingglobal power and aspirant hegemon), and thusargues for preemptive containmentof China by theUnited States and its allies.

But Mearsheimers thesis of international rela-

tions is historically flawed, his analysis of Chinadisconnected from reality and history, and his pol-icy prescription downright dangerous. Indeed,even if the US government agreed with Mear-sheimer and decided that preemptive containmentof China was a desirable option, not a single othernation would go along with such a policy. All ofChinas neighbors, the European Union, andnations across the Middle East, Africa, and LatinAmerica are fully engaging China and have nointention of changing course. If anything, an Amer-

ican decision to try to contain China would bothfail and cause unnecessary frictions between Wash-ington and other nations.

A fourth conceptual possibility would be a con-cert of powers in which the region is dominated by,and stability preserved through, agreements andcooperative actions undertaken by the three to fivemost powerful regional powers. The best exampleof this type of system was the Concert of Europe,which functioned for almost half a century in thewake of the Congress of Vienna in 1815. But Asia

has never known such a systemindeed its historyover the past two centuries has been characterizedby great power competition and conflict. And aslong as Chinas relations with Japan, India, and theUnited States are characterized by lesser or greaterdegrees of suspicion and friction, a Concert of Asiawill never come to pass. The dysfunctional andantagonistic China-Japan relationship by itself rulesout such a scenario.

POWER COUPLES?

A fifth possibility would be a condominium ofpowers, whereby the two strongest powers in theregion collaborate to dominate the region and coop-erate in maintaining regional stability. While Wash-ington and Beijing are cooperating today on a rangeof regional and global issues, their lingering suspi-cions and strategic hedging rule out such a possibil-ity. A Sino-American condominium would alsorequire the abandonment of, or Beijings harmoniza-tion with, the US-Japan alliance. During the 1970sand 1980s, China largely supported the alliance,

since it seemed to Beijing an effective way to keep acap on Japans military development and regionalroles (the cork in the bottle), but this is no longer

the case. Today, Beijing sees Washington pushingTokyo to build a stronger military and assume greatersecurity rolesall anathema to Chinas own nationalsecurity interests and regional aspirations.

A sixth alternative would be a regional systemforming a hierarchy of powers, with one power atopa pyramid of less powerful and subservient nations.

A hierarchical order is a kind of patron-client sys-tem, whereby the dominant power extends securityprotection and other tangible economic and politi-cal benefits to its client states. It also requires a formof bandwagoningof states together with the dom-inant regional power.

This was the case with the traditional Chinese-led tribute systemthat existed for much of thepre-modern era before European imperial powersencroached on it and destroyed it beginning in theeighteenth century. Today, the United States pro-

vides such a system for its alliesbut they consti-tute only five of the thirty nations in Asia (hence itis not all-encompassing and pan-regional). Nor canChina provide such assets to its neighbors. Even ifChina had the desire, it does not possess the capa-bility to provide extended deterrenceand secu-rity guarantees to its neighbors. Nor can India orJapan. Thus there is no single nation capable ofheading such a hierarchical system at present orinto the foreseeable future.

A seventh and final alternative would be a

region-wide collective security networkeitheralong the allied lines of NATO or the non-alliedOrganization for Security and Cooperation inEurope (OSCE). Although the ARF could conceiv-ably evolve into an Asian version of the OSCE, it stillhas a long way to go to reach the level of consen-sus and institutionalization that has existed formore than two decades in Europe. An Asian ver-sion of NATO, a multilateral security alliance, seemsinconceivable given the diversity of political sys-tems, cultures, and extant security dilemmas that

characterize the Asian landscape.Even if these seven conceptual possibilities do

not obtain or apply at present, several of thesemodels characterized the regional system in thepastand may do so again in the future. Thisleaves us with an Asian region that, for now,exhibits the five defining features outlined earlier.

The emerging and evolving Asian system todayis a mixture of realist, liberal, and constructivistelementswith major powers vying for influence,while interdependence deepens, and behavioral

norms and multilateral institutions develop. Suchcross-trends may not make for conceptual clarity,but they do constitute the current reality.


David Shambaugh-Asia in Transition

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