David Maidment - The National Flood Interoperability Experiment: Leveraging Partnerships to explore...
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Transcript of David Maidment - The National Flood Interoperability Experiment: Leveraging Partnerships to explore...
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The National Flood Interoperability Experiment: Leveraging Partnerships to explore the future of flood forecasting
David R. Maidment Center for Research in Water Resources
University of Texas at Austin
Edward Clark National Water Center
NOAA/National Weather Service
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Vision:
Scientific excellence and innovation driving water prediction and decisions for a water-resilient nation.
Mission:
The NWC collaboratively researches, develops and delivers state-of-the science, National hydrologic analyses, forecast information, data, decision-support services and guidance to support and inform essential emergency services and water management decisions.
Through partnerships, it integrates and supports consistent water prediction activities from global to local levels.
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National Water Center
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7/21/2015 PRE- 3 Inaugural Meeting May, 2014
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The Email Proposed by Dr. Maidment: A real-time flood inundation and mapping
facility running for the CONUS in a demonstration mode
Leverage a number of existing tools and techniques
Couple targeted academic curricula with new data sets/ accessible services
Develop new GIS tools with private sector partners
Hold a student hack-a-thon Summer Institute
a stretch goal to explore what some aspects of a Common Operating Picture and GeoIntelligence laboratory could be, and also make more real some elements of a National Water Data Infrastructure
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Why People
On Average, more people die annually from flooding than from
any other form of natural disaster
Spatial Distribution of
Flood Fatalities 2007-2013 (source: NWS StormDat)
Low water crossing
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Goals
National Flood Interoperability Experiment
Close the gap between national flood forecasting and local emergency response
- Impact at the street level
Explore real-time flood information services
- Shared among organizations, geographies, people
Engage academic community through the National Water Center
- Innovation for transformative change
- Glimpse the future of hydrologic forecasting
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Partnership with the academic research
community
National Weather Service has joined with CUAHSI to
conduct a one-year National Flood Interoperability
Experiment (NFIE)
Includes a Summer Institute for students and faculty
at the National Water Center, June 1 to July 17, 2015
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Forecasts produced by River Forecasts
- Current system 3600 locations
- Future 2.67 million locations
New Information to help emergency managers
to save lives and keep people safe
700 times more
Current Proposed
Why Transform the NOAA and NWS Forecasting paradigm
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NFIE Goal: Connect National Scale Flood Modeling with Local emergency planning and response
1. How can near-real-time hydrologic simulations at high spatial resolution, covering the nation, be carried out using the NHDPlus or next generation hydro-fabric (e.g. data structure for hillslope, watershed scales)?
2. How can this lead to improved emergency response and community resilience?
3. How can an improved interoperability framework support the first two goals and lead to sustained innovation in the research to operations process?
Normal Medium High
Flood Risk Condition Status
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Thanks to so many who contributed
NFIE Summer Institute students youre the best!
Don Cline, Ed Clark, National Weather Service
Emily Clark and Rick Hooper, CUAHSI
Andy Ernest, Sagy Cohen, Sarah Praskievicz, Joseph
Gutenson, Univ. of Alabama
Marcelo Somos Valenzuela and Fernando Salas, Univ.
of Texas
Kristin Tolle and Prashant Dhingra, Microsoft Research
Jim Nelson, BYU and Ray Idaszak, UNC
David Tarboton, Utah State and Barbara Minsker,
UIUC
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Flood Disaster in Texas, May 2015
Enough rain to cover entire state in 8 of water
70 Texas counties declared flood disaster areas by the state
More than 30 flood deaths, other people are still missing
Swift water rescue
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Transformative Research (NSF)
Transformative research involves ideas, discoveries, or tools that radically change our understanding of an important existing scientific or engineering concept or educational practice or leads to the creation of a new paradigm or field of science, engineering, or education. Such research challenges current understanding or provides pathways to new frontiers.
http://www.nsf.gov/about/transformative_research/definition.jsp
How to move from evolutionary change
to transformative change?
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Goal of the Experiment
Close the gap between National Flood Forecasting
and Local Emergency Response
Demonstrate forecasting of flood impacts at stream and street level
National
Local
Weather and Hydrology
National Weather Service and federal agencies
National Water Center
River Flooding and Emergency Response
Local, State and Regional Agencies
Citizens
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NFIE Conceptual Framework
NFIE-Services: Web services for flood information
NFIE-Geo:
National
geospatial
framework for
hydrology
NFIE-Hydro:
National high
spatial resolution
hydrologic
forecasting
NFIE-River: River
channel information
and real-time flood
inundation mapping
NFIE-Response:
Wide area planning
for flood
emergency
response
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NHDPlus Version 2
National Elevation Dataset
National Hydrography Dataset
National Land Cover Dataset
Watershed Boundary Dataset
NHDPlus
Geospatial foundation for a national water data infrastructure
2.67 million reach catchments in US
average area 3 km2
reach length 2 km
Uniquely labelled
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NFIE-Geo for National Flood Interoperability Experiment
Enhanced geospatial database for a national water data infrastructure
NWS Basins and
Forecast Points
USGS Water Watch
Points
National Flood
Hazard Layer
NHDPlus
Feature classes:
Subwatershed (HUC12)
Catchment
Flowline
Waterbody
Streamgage
NFIE-Geo 9 feature classes
5 from NHDPlus
4 from IWRSS
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NFIE-Geo for Travis and Williamson
Counties 500 catchments per county
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National Flood Interoperability Experiment
Why? People
Low water
crossing on
Bear Creek
2 AM, 18 Sept 2014
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Deputy Hollis and Flood Information
NHDPlus contains a catchment
for Bear Creek
An operational NFIE forecasting system
could have helped her
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500,000 processors operating in parallel
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High Performance Computing: Stampede
1.2 million gallon cooling tank
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NFIE-Hydro Forecasting Model
Runoff
Streamflow
RAPID flow routing (for continental US)
Probabilistic flood forecasts Weather model and forecasts (HRRR)
Land-Atmosphere Model (NOAH-MP)
Precipitation Weather
Catchment-
level forecasts
Computed for the continental US in 10 minutes at Texas Advanced Computing Center
WRF-Hydro
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Ensemble of 50 flood forecasts
Probability of Flooding on Shoal Ck, Austin, Tx
ECMWF-
RAPID
flow
forecasts
Deterministic
flood maps
Probabilistic
flood maps
HEC-RAS
model
Rating
curves
library
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Transformative for the nation
Forecasts produced by
- Current system 6000 locations
- NFIE system 2.67 million locations
New Information to help emergency managers save
lives and keep people safe
400 times more
Current Proposed in NFIE
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Connecting with Local Decision Makers
Work with the first response
community to improve pre-
planning and flood operations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ympaR6YUxiA&feature=youtube
Harry Evans
Austin Fire Dept