Regional Climate ModellingTraining and Capacity Building: lessons learned

David Hein-GriggsMet Office Hadley Centre, UK

The Met Office Hadley Centre has been involved in

Climate-Services-style training before “Climate Services”

was a common term.

We have learned lessons over the past fifteen years which

could be useful for C3S as the training component is

developed.

Climate Services Training

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPDdjDxbbdg

The PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System

Youtube Video

Activities• 50+ PRECIS training workshops , training 800+ scientists,

academics, students, researchers worldwide

• Many hundreds of PRECIS simulations carried out by users

worldwide

• Google scholar returns ~600×HadRM3P, ~950×PRECIS

regional climate

Institutional Reach

• WMO, UNDP, UNFCCC, NHMSs, UK DfID, UK FCO, UNEP,

NERC UK Research Centre, Universities and consultancy

projects

PRECIS statistics 2003-2017Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies

Average Global Climate Model resolution was 96x48

(3.75 degrees by 2.5 degrees), meaning there was a

definite need to downscale to higher resolution

High performance computers rare outside of developed

countries -- technical solutions were needed to allow

any researcher to generate climate change impacts

studies.

Climate Modelling in 2003

Average GCM resolution is fast approaching the 25km

horizontal resolution which is PRECIS’s maximum, e.g.

Primavera H2020 EU

HighResMIP for CMIP6 / AR6

HPCs are more and more common in the developing

world

Data from climate change projections is becoming

easier to find, e.g.

CORDEX

Climate Modelling in 2017

What is state of the art in 2002 is not in 2017.

Any kind of product (and associated training) needs

to reflect how users utilise technology.

Lesson #1Adapt to Technology

As CMIP6 and other high resolution data becomes

available, PRECIS’s focus will shift to three areas

1) PRECIS will become freely available as a Linux Virtual

Machine as a capacity building tool, running in any major

OS (Windows, Mac OS, Linux)

(Want to learn more about regional climate models?

Here’s a tool you can easily use to understand more. )

PRECIS needs to evolve

As CMIP6 and other high resolution data becomes

available, PRECIS’s focus will shift to three areas

2) PRECIS will be continue to be used for downscaling

long reanalyses to create proxies of past observations

(e.g. 20th Century Reanalysis 1851-2014, CERA-20C 1900-

2010). still very important for development of climate

services tools !!

PRECIS needs to evolve

As CMIP6 and other high resolution data becomes

available, PRECIS’s focus will shift to three areas

3) PRECIS will be ported to run on cloud computing

environment hosting CMIP5/6 data, taking the “compute”

to the data. Users will run PRECIS remotely.

The size of driving GCMs has become so large that

providing the boundary data for PRECIS is impractical.

Furthermore, internet access is now the norm in almost

all parts of the world.

PRECIS needs to evolve

Educational Research has a lot to tell us about

optimum teaching methods

Lesson #2Take advantage of what social science tells us about learning

Culture of learning in science

A recognised expert delivers a seminar. Sometimes the lecturer takes questions at the end (this variesacross cultures and institutions). Learners areresponsible for sorting out understanding on their own.

Obstacles

There are many other obstacles to learning.

Can you think of some examples? Raise your hands

Obstacles

There are many other obstacles to learning.

Examples: LanguageFundingLack of tools/resources/materials EmotionalCultural (especially gender-wise)Lack of opportunity/timeConflict

ObstaclesHuman beings learn in a variety of ways.

ObstaclesIs there a better way than only providing the instruction manual?

Individual station vs. area averages

26 stations in a 25km×25km area (black bars) and their area averages, (red bars).

The area average (c.f. model grid box output) is considerably and inconsistently different to most individual stations

© Crown copyright Met Office

David and Victoria Beckham have just purchased a £27 million pound country house in England. David wants to know if he needs to adapt his house for climate change, so he downscales one GCM from 2005-2099 with PRECIS over the UK. When the model finishes he then extracts the grid box his house is inside of and starts performing analysis on the data for that grid box.

You are his C3S climate consultant. What do you tell him?

© Crown copyright Met Office

Station data vs. Gridded data

Compare like with like

Data only have skill at spatial scales resolved by their grids

The grid box data values are an area average for the full area. They are not point data and therefore not directly comparable with single point time series.

© Crown copyright Met Office

Station data vs. Gridded data

Which of the two approaches (complex plot vs. discussion activity) is more effective ?

Educational Science has a lot to tell us about

optimum structure and practice in teaching

Lesson #3Take advantage of what social

science tells us about methodology

Educational Science Methodology

Edith PIAF

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

*Pre-learning

Example: Online course http://climateeducation.net/

* Training Needs Analysis

A formal, structured approach to training that attempts to identify strengths, weaknesses, external factors and gaps in an organisation or group of learners.

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Input (the formal component which will act as a catalyst for changes in behaviour and on-going skills development).

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Input (the formal component which will act as a catalyst for changes in behaviour and on-going skills development).

LEARNING INTERVENTIONProgrammes of action aimed at improving learning in a specific area.

Learning interventions should be:formalintentionalspecific and targetedtime-boundreviewed and monitored

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Input (the formal component which will act as a catalyst for changes in behaviour and on-going skills development).

Application (the learner applies what is learned to actual tasks)

* Use optimum methods

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Input (the formal component which will act as a catalyst for changes in behaviour and on-going skills development).

Application (the learner applies what is learned to actual tasks)

Follow-up (monitor the effectiveness of the solution, with an aim to make what is learned into daily situations, towards intuitive performance)

Shepherd, 2015

Four phases in an effective blended learning solution:

Preparation (align the learner with the intervention)

Input (the formal component which will act as a catalyst for changes in behaviour and on-going skills development).

Application (the learner applies what is learned to actual tasks)

Follow-up (monitor the effectiveness of the solution, with an aim to make what is learned into daily situations, towards intuitive performance)

* Surveys* Tests* Metrics for assessing effectiveness* ?

Shepherd, 2015

Learning Intervention Example

Jane is struggling with the task of analysingclimate model binary output data.

She has been referred to written documentationand given numerous example code, but these resources have not helped.

A miniature Learning Intervention was developed.

Strategy - use blended learning

Example (continued)

Metadata (in the circles)

The file data(rectangular sections at the bottom).

Practice and Assessment

Start with less complex tools / conceptsin order to allow the learnerto build knowledge and confidence.

Example:

* PRECIS is easy to install and run

* WRF is far more powerful but requires 10 times more technical and scientific expertise.

* A novice might benefit by starting with PRECIS and moving to WRF later

Example: Incremental Learning

PanoplyIncremental learning example:

Panoply vs NCL.

A sampleplot ofprecipitati

onusing Panoply

NCL – NCAR Command Language

Final Example: The SEACAM project

•Agree need for RCM ensemble

•Design RCM experiments

•Run RCM experiments

Inception(May 2011-June 2012)

•Literature review

•End user survey•Workshop

planning

Planning of Analysis and

research

•5 days•Analysis of

results in 4 key areas

•Agree further analysis

Review workshop (Cambodia

August 2013)

• Review outputs• Produce

guidance• Final report

(April 2014)

Final workshop (Singapore February

2014)

First review workshop in August 2013 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

PRECIS has been very successful as a capacity building

and training tool. Technological advancements mean

that the gaps filled by PRECIS in 2003 are being met in

other ways.

To remain effective, training in regional climate modelling

science needs to reflect lessons learned:

* Respond to advances in technology

* Reflect best teaching methods

* Utilise best educational practice and policy

Conclusion

Endhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/precis