David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

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© OECD/IEA 2012 Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future 25 th October 2012 David Elzinga

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Presentation by David Elzinga titled "Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future"

Transcript of David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

Page 1: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future

25th October 2012David Elzinga

Page 2: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DSwhere the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DSreflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DSa vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

Page 3: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Sustainable future still in reach

© OECD/IEA 2012

Are we on track to reach a clean

energy future?

NO ✗

Can we get on track?

YES ✓

Is a clean energy transition urgent?

YES ✓

Page 4: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidencein clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

Page 5: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

The Global Energy system today

Dominated by fossil fuels in all sectors

Page 6: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

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The future low-carbon energy system

The 2DS in 2050 shows a dramatic shift in energy sources and demands

Page 7: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

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Only collective efforts of all sectors lead to the 2DS

The core of a clean energy system is low-carbon electricity that diffuses into all end-use sectors.

Page 8: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

A variety of technologies is required to achieve the 2DS

Energy efficiency is the hidden fuel that increases energy security and mitigates climate change.

CCS20%

Renewables29%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency

31%

End-use fuel switching9%

Nuclear8%

Power generation efficiency and fuel switching

3%

Page 9: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

A smart, sustainable energy system

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A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Page 10: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

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Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

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Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas

Significant action is required to get back on track

Page 11: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000Other industries

Chemicals and petrochemicals

Aluminium

Pulp and paper

Iron and steel

Cement

2 DS

Industry must become more efficient

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

GtC

O2

Page 12: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

The CCS infant must grow quickly

© OECD/IEA 2012

Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt CO2

Mt C

O2

Page 13: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050.

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (

mill

ion)

Page 14: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Space heating22%

Water heating12%

Cooking15%

Cooling and ventilation5%Lighting

5%

Appliances10%

Space heating, 7%

Water heating, 2%

Cooling and ventilation, 3%

Lighting, 3%

Other15%

Total energy savings 33 EJ

Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Services

Residential

About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector.

Page 15: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

Bill

ion

hous

ehol

ds Building sector challenges differ

OECD Non OECD

75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

Page 16: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Heating & Cooling: huge potential

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Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.

Page 17: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Energy and CO2 impacts of electricity generation

Power sector accounted in 2009 for almost 40% of global primary energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions.

Power38%

Industry21%

Transport18%

Buildings15%

Other transformation6%

Agriculture2%

Power38%

Industry26%

Transport20%

Buildings9%

Other transformation5%

Agriculture2%

Total primary energy use: 509 EJ in 2009

Total energy-related CO2 emissions:31.4 Gt in 2009

Page 18: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Key technologies to decarbonise power generation

Electricity demand savings and renewables are each responsible for one-third of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Additional emissions 6DS

Electricity savings 28% (21%)

Fuel switching and efficiency 5% (2%)

Other renewables 5% (7%)

Wind, offshore 7% (7%)

Wind, onshore 7% (5%)

CSP 5% (8%)

PV 7% (8%)

Hydro 4% (3%)

Nuclear 14% (17%)

CCS 18% (22%)

Note: The first percentage number refers to its share in cumulative CO2 reductions between 2009 and 2050, while the percentage in parentheses refers to the annual reduction, in 2050.

Page 19: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity generation scenarios

05 000

10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal

67%49%

3%

13%

12%

19%36%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2050

RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS

4DS

In the 2DS, global electricity supply becomes decarbonised by 2050.

05 000

10 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 00045 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

OtherWindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOilGasCoal

67%

9%14%

13%

19%

19%

57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2050

RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS

2DS

Page 20: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity generation capacity

Generation capacity is higher in the 2DS due to great deployment of variable renewables with lower capacity factors.

Page 21: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electricity system flexibility

Power system flexibility expresses the extent to which a power system can modify electricity production or consumption in

response to variability, expected or otherwise.

± MW / time

Page 22: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Flexibility needs and resources

Existing and new flexibility needs can be met by a range of resources in the electricity system – facilitated by power system

markets, operation and hardware.

Page 23: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

T&D infrastructure investments in the 4DS and 2DS are similar

...but sectoral allocation differs

Page 24: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor of between 1.5 and 4.5

..., but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors.

Page 25: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Low-carbon electricity is at the core of a sustainable energy system

ASEAN Context

Page 26: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

CO2 emissions in the 2DS are brought back to today’s level.

ASEAN : Sectoral Contributions to achieve the 2DS from the 4DS

Page 27: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

ASEAN : Electricity generation in the 4DS and 2DS

While the electricity mix in the 4DS is dominated by coal, renewables provide more than half of the electricity in the 2DS in 2050.

Page 28: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Key technologies to decarbonise ASEAN power generation

Renewables provide almost half of the CO2 reductions in the power sector in the 2DS.

Page 29: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Regional electricity mixes in the 2DS in 2050

Portfolios to decarbonise the power sector depend on regional challenges and opportunities.

25%

2%

7%

2%

19%

20%

5%

2%

4%

14%

0%

21%

6%

14%

10%

8%

23%

24%

5%

5%

24%

22%

17%

8%

28%

24%

22%

18%

60%

14%

13%

16%

7%

28%

2%

6%

6%

6%

10%

10%

21%

21%

1%

28%

15%

10%

7%

15%

29%

6%

19%

14%

16%

18%

22%

19%

9%

18%

7%

15%

17%

6%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

ASEAN

Brazil

China

EU

India

Mexico

Russia

South Africa

US

Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other renewables

Page 30: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

In the 2DS, electricity becomes a near zero carbon fuel by 2050

Carbon intensity drops by 90% by 2050 in the 2DS .

0100200300400500600700800900

1 000

2009 2030 2050 2030 2050

4DS 2DS

g CO

2-eq

/ kW

h

World European Union United States China India ASEAN

Page 31: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Natural gas is not a panacea

The global average CO2 intensity from power generation falls below the carbon intensity of CCGTs in 2025 in the 2DS; CCS can play a role

in reducing emissions from gas

Page 32: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Two very different profiles for natural gas use in power generation

Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS.

From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly.

Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario.

Notes: Natural gas-fired power generation includes generation in power plants equipped with CCS units. Biogas is not included here.

Page 33: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Buildings energy consumption

Strong population growth in ASEAN countries will drive energy demand upwards

Page 34: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Passenger light-duty vehicle sales

Passenger LDV’s are expected to grow significantly in the coming decades.

Page 35: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Transport energy use in 2050

Shipping energy use is substantial and efficiency improvements are expected to be limited

Page 36: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

Final Global Comments

Page 37: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Total

Fuel savings

Additional invest-ment

10%

3%

Undiscounted

Without _x000d_price effect

With _x000d_price effect

Additional_x000d_investment

Tota

l sav

ings

Fuel

savi

ngs

- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40

Power

Industry

Transport

Residential

Commercial

Additional invest-ment

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

Page 38: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there

2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment

3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies

4. It even makes financial sense to do it.5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the

potential

Key messages

Page 39: David Elzinga - Tapping Technology's Potential to Secure a Clean Energy Future

© OECD/IEA 2012

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