David Earnshaw - Europe Decides After Hours event 4 December 2013

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EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS The democratic (r)evolution of 2014 and what it means for EU politics: process, positions and people David Earnshaw // Burson-Marsteller Brussels

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Presentation by David Earnshaw, CEO of Burson-Marsteller Brussels, on the 2014 changes in the European Union.

Transcript of David Earnshaw - Europe Decides After Hours event 4 December 2013

Page 1: David Earnshaw - Europe Decides After Hours event 4 December 2013

EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The democratic (r)evolution of 2014 and what it means for EU politics:process, positions and people

David Earnshaw // Burson-Marsteller Brussels

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EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

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Last EP plenary session

European political parties nominate Presidential

candidates

FEBRUARY/MARCH 2014

23/24 April 2014

22-25 MAY

2 JUNE – 27 JUNE

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PENTECOST

5-9 JUNE

22/9/2013 GERMAN ELECTION

ASCENSION26-30 MAY

Constituent meetings of EP party groups

1-3 JULY

EP Constituent session (election of EP officer-

holders)

14-17 JULY

15-18/9/2014

EP Session: Election of

Commission President

EP plenary session

01/9/2014

CONFIRMATION HEARINGS OF COMMISSIONERS-DESIGNATE

OCTOBER 2014

October plenary: investiture of Commission, 2014-2019

1/11/2014 - 2019

2014-2019 Commission enters office

1/12/2014

New President of European Council

enters office

Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries: 13-16/1, 3-6/2, 24-27/2, 10-13/3, 2-3/4, 14-17/4

European Youth Event

(9/5 Strasbourg)

26-27 JUNE

EUROPEAN COUNCILNomination of Commission

President

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EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

The positions to fill in 2014• 751 MEPs• Commission President• 27 other commissioners

(including +/- 7 VPs)• European Council President• European Parliament President

(x 2)• Permanent President of

Eurozone

• 20 EP Committee chairs• 14 EP Vice Presidents • Political Group leaders• Secretary General of

Commission? EP?• President of 2015

Constitutional Convention• Non-EU positions: NATO and

UN secretaries general

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The process

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The process

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• Viviane Reding, Commission VP• Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland • Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden• Dalia Grybauskaitė, President

Lithuania• President Barroso• Enda Kenny, PM Ireland• Jean-Claude Juncker, PM

Luxembourg

The people: Commission President• Martin Schulz, EP President• Helle Thorning-Schmidt, PM

Denmark• José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero• Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO• Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE Group

leader ALDE, EP• Anders Fogh Rasmussen,

NATO Secretary General • Olli Rehn, Commissioner

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EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

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The incoming Commission President• Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member state’

focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent already, in 2009)• Parliamentary majority will be critical• Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs• A more partisan College?• Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?• Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance? Ex-

MEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP first before being appointed to the Commission”

• Portfolios? Reform of DGs structure? Commission reform agenda?

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The new European Parliament• Campaign will be first markedly digital EP election campaign• 50% new members (normal); up to 30% anti-system/protest parties • EPP and S+D: +/- 220 seats each; ALDE: 65-80? Greens: 50 seats? • Absolute majority (376) harder to achieve without grand coalition? • Impact of a German grand coalition on EPP/S&D behaviour (big

impact 2005-2009) • (Commission) Presidential majority in EP more stable? • Committee chairs part of wider jigsaw• Political group secs gen etc. - minor positions in jigsaw• July I session: EP officers; July II session: Commission President vote

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Other people, other positions?• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for UN job)• Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister)• Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)

• ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of European Council?

• European Council – DK PES government to nominate a Liberal? European Council doesn’t need a nomination

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Other people, other positions?• Commissioners: Kroes (age 72) for a third term? French

government reshuffle after municipals? TTIP – Lamy for Trade Commissioner again?

• EPP Group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April 2014; Reding, De Gucht, Rehn to go too?

• S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring -consolation prize for Schulz? A British position?

• NATO Sec Gen: Frattini / De Crem (Belgium) / Gül (Turkey)?

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Online campaigning already underway

EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS

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Some other issues• Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative• Manifestos• Campaigning• Candidatures – the process? What process? • Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014• Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation?• A single electoral register (2019?)?• Will it all be a flop?

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Is this how the EP will look in June?

ALDE 62 (-20)

GUE/NGL 38 (-23)

S&D 213 (+19)

GUE/NGL 47 (+12)

EPP 209 (-64)

ECR 61 (+5)

EFD 32 (nc)

NI 89 (+58)

Much will depend on post-election alliances and changes

Source:Notre Europe