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David Earnshaw - Europe Decides After Hours event 4 December 2013
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Transcript of David Earnshaw - Europe Decides After Hours event 4 December 2013
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The democratic (r)evolution of 2014 and what it means for EU politics:process, positions and people
David Earnshaw // Burson-Marsteller Brussels
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Last EP plenary session
European political parties nominate Presidential
candidates
FEBRUARY/MARCH 2014
23/24 April 2014
22-25 MAY
2 JUNE – 27 JUNE
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PENTECOST
5-9 JUNE
22/9/2013 GERMAN ELECTION
ASCENSION26-30 MAY
Constituent meetings of EP party groups
1-3 JULY
EP Constituent session (election of EP officer-
holders)
14-17 JULY
15-18/9/2014
EP Session: Election of
Commission President
EP plenary session
01/9/2014
CONFIRMATION HEARINGS OF COMMISSIONERS-DESIGNATE
OCTOBER 2014
October plenary: investiture of Commission, 2014-2019
1/11/2014 - 2019
2014-2019 Commission enters office
1/12/2014
New President of European Council
enters office
Note: other first semester 2014 plenaries: 13-16/1, 3-6/2, 24-27/2, 10-13/3, 2-3/4, 14-17/4
European Youth Event
(9/5 Strasbourg)
26-27 JUNE
EUROPEAN COUNCILNomination of Commission
President
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The positions to fill in 2014• 751 MEPs• Commission President• 27 other commissioners
(including +/- 7 VPs)• European Council President• European Parliament President
(x 2)• Permanent President of
Eurozone
• 20 EP Committee chairs• 14 EP Vice Presidents • Political Group leaders• Secretary General of
Commission? EP?• President of 2015
Constitutional Convention• Non-EU positions: NATO and
UN secretaries general
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The process
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
• Viviane Reding, Commission VP• Jyrki Katainen, PM Finland • Fredrik Reinfeldt, PM Sweden• Dalia Grybauskaitė, President
Lithuania• President Barroso• Enda Kenny, PM Ireland• Jean-Claude Juncker, PM
Luxembourg
The people: Commission President• Martin Schulz, EP President• Helle Thorning-Schmidt, PM
Denmark• José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero• Pascal Lamy, ex- DG, WTO• Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE Group
leader ALDE, EP• Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
NATO Secretary General • Olli Rehn, Commissioner
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONSEVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The incoming Commission President• Likely to be selected through a party-based and not ‘member state’
focused negotiation (note Cathy Ashton precedent already, in 2009)• Parliamentary majority will be critical• Will be in strong position to negotiate team with PMs• A more partisan College?• Will unsuccessful candidates seek parliamentary Presidency?• Will incoming President insist on team with gender balance? Ex-
MEPs? Reding: “all EU commissioners should be elected to the EP first before being appointed to the Commission”
• Portfolios? Reform of DGs structure? Commission reform agenda?
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
The new European Parliament• Campaign will be first markedly digital EP election campaign• 50% new members (normal); up to 30% anti-system/protest parties • EPP and S+D: +/- 220 seats each; ALDE: 65-80? Greens: 50 seats? • Absolute majority (376) harder to achieve without grand coalition? • Impact of a German grand coalition on EPP/S&D behaviour (big
impact 2005-2009) • (Commission) Presidential majority in EP more stable? • Committee chairs part of wider jigsaw• Political group secs gen etc. - minor positions in jigsaw• July I session: EP officers; July II session: Commission President vote
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Other people, other positions?• Radek Sikorski – VPHR (but Eastern European needed for UN job)• Carl Bildt (Swedish Foreign Minister)• Kristina Georgiva (Bulgaria – Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid)
• ALDE: Verhofstadt – but complicated by Fogh Rasmussen for President of European Council?
• European Council – DK PES government to nominate a Liberal? European Council doesn’t need a nomination
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Other people, other positions?• Commissioners: Kroes (age 72) for a third term? French
government reshuffle after municipals? TTIP – Lamy for Trade Commissioner again?
• EPP Group: Barnier to lead? Leave of absence from April 2014; Reding, De Gucht, Rehn to go too?
• S+D parliamentary group: Swoboda retiring -consolation prize for Schulz? A British position?
• NATO Sec Gen: Frattini / De Crem (Belgium) / Gül (Turkey)?
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Online campaigning already underway
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Some other issues• Primaries (2019?) - but note Green initiative• Manifestos• Campaigning• Candidatures – the process? What process? • Hearings of Commissioners, September 2014• Ballot papers – declare European party affiliation?• A single electoral register (2019?)?• Will it all be a flop?
EVIDENCE-BASED COMMUNICATIONS
Is this how the EP will look in June?
ALDE 62 (-20)
GUE/NGL 38 (-23)
S&D 213 (+19)
GUE/NGL 47 (+12)
EPP 209 (-64)
ECR 61 (+5)
EFD 32 (nc)
NI 89 (+58)
Much will depend on post-election alliances and changes
Source:Notre Europe