Date: 4 February, 2019 - HDFC securities PCG Pick-of-the-Wee… · Retail Core Retail EBITDA margin...

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Date: 4 February, 2019

Transcript of Date: 4 February, 2019 - HDFC securities PCG Pick-of-the-Wee… · Retail Core Retail EBITDA margin...

Page 1: Date: 4 February, 2019 - HDFC securities PCG Pick-of-the-Wee… · Retail Core Retail EBITDA margin of 7.2% on gross revenue and 8.5% on net. 98% national coverage taluka wise. Same-store

Date: 4 February, 2019

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Equity Research

Pick of the Week – PCG Research

Largest Private Sector Player in Refining & Petrochemicals

Phenomenal Subscriber addition in Telecom

Telecom and Retail Segments continue to post robust growth

Reliance Industries

INDUSTRY

CMP

RECOMMEND ed

ADD ON DIPS TO

TARGET

TIME HORIZON ed

Oil & Gas

Rs 1247

Rs 1140 - 1247

Rs 1440 Rs 1030

Key Highlights

Continues to gain market share in Telecom Segment, largest player

in terms of wireless internet users

Estimate 9% revenue and 33% PAT CAGR

4-6 quarters Buy at CMP and add on declines

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HDFC Scrip Code RELINDEQNR

BSE Code 500325

NSE Code RELIANCE

Bloomberg RIL IN

CMP Feb 01, 2019 Rs 1247

Equity Capital (Rs bn) 63.39

Face Value (Rs) 10

Eq- Share O/S (mn) 6338.6

Market Cap (Rs bn) 7906.21

Book Value (Rs) 497

Avg.52 Wk Volume 10271914

52 Week High 1329

52 Week Low 871

Red flag Price Level 1030

PCG Risk Rating * Yellow

Shareholding Pattern % (Dec, 2018)

Promoters 47.2

Institutions 39.1

Non Institutions 13.7

Total 100.0

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST

Company profile:

RIL is the largest private player in the refining, petrochemical and E&P sectors in India. The Company’s

refining complex in Jamnagar is the largest in the world and among the most complex. It is also among the

largest integrated petrochemical producers, globally. Over the past 40 years, RIL has periodically transformed

its core business through backward integration. First it was Textiles, then Polyester, followed by Chemicals

and then Petrochemicals and Refining. In the past few years, a major lateral shift has happened, with the

focus on Telecom, Data, Broadband and organised Retail. Apart from Exploration & Production (E&P) in India,

RIL has made significant investments in US shale gas. In terms of revenues, Refining contribution stood at

54%, Petrochemicals at 23%, Retail at 17% and Telecom (RJIO) at 5.7%. In terms of EBIT, Petrochemicals

at 50%, Refining at 32%, Telecom at 13% and Retail at 8% while Oil & Gas segment continue to post EBIT

losses. RIL is also expanding its presence rapidly in the areas of Consumer Retailing and Telecom. EBIT

contribution from Retail and Telecom is at 21% for 9M FY19 which was at just 2% in FY17.

View and valuation: Digital and Retail segments to spur robust growth momentum

We believe the Company may post 11.2% revenue and 13% PAT CAGR on standalone basis over FY18-21E.

As Consumer and Telecom segment gets bigger, they would post better earnings growth. With ARPU also

inching up after FY20, RJIO is expected to post robust growth over the next 2-3 years. Telecom (RJIO) is

expected to see 30% revenue and 49% PAT CAGR over FY19-21E. By end of FY21, RJIO may end up with

an estimated of 41cr subscribers. Retail Segment has already demonstrated superior performance and we

further expect it to accelerate in the coming years. RIL is the largest retailer in the country having presence

across various segments. We estimate 21% consolidated revenue and 23% PAT CAGR over FY18-21E. Stock

trades at 6.7x FY21 EV/EBITDA. Reliance trades at 12x FY21E earnings on consolidated basis, which is

attractive given its strong growth outlook over the next few years. We recommend Buy on Reliance at cmp

of Rs 1247 and add on dips to Rs 1140 with TP of Rs 1440 over the next 12 months.

Kushal Rughani [email protected]

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YE March (Rs bn)

(Standalone) FY18 FY19E FY20E

FY21E

Net Sales 2900.4 3931.5 3963.7 3993.1

EBITDA 517.4 588.6 690 709

APAT 336.1 372.9 448.3 471.5

Diluted EPS (Rs) 53.1 59 70.8 74.4

P/E (x) 23.2 20.9 17.5 16.8

EV / EBITDA (x) 16.8 15.4 12.9 12.3

RoE (%) 11.1 11.3 12.3 11.7

Key Highlights

RIL is the largest private player in the refining, petrochemical and E&P sectors in India. While RIL’s refining complex in Jamnagar is the largest in the world and among the most complex, it is also among the largest integrated petrochemical producers, globally. Refining revenues contribution at 54%, Petrochem at 23%, JIO at 6% and Retail at 16.5%. In terms of EBIT, Refining contributes 32% and Petrochemicals at 50% and Jio at 13%. RIL continues to expand its presence in the areas of consumer retailing and telecom. For 9M FY19, JIO posted operating revenues of Rs 27700cr with EBITDA margin of 38.8%. PAT stood at Rs 2100cr. Total subscriber base stood at 28cr. We expect company to close with 30.5cr subscribers for FY19 and 38 cr for FY20 which means they will almost double over FY18-20. Jio contributed to 7.2% of PAT for 9M FY19, which we believe would reach to 11% in FY21. RIL may come out with the IPO or announce demerger of Rel JIO and Rel Retail in the next two years which would add incremental value for shareholders. We estimate 21% consolidated revenue and 23% PAT CAGR over FY18-21E. Stock trades at 6.7x FY21 EV/EBITDA and 12x FY21E EPS.

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Business Segments:

RIL’s strength lies in its ability to build businesses of global scale and execute complex, time critical, and

capital-intensive projects. This gives them an edge as it embarks on large investments in all core segments.

RIL has incurred large part of capex in all the segments and will continue to invest in Retail and Telecom

as the Company pursues to grow big in these segments. RIL has invested in world-scale projects like

petcoke gasification, off-gas crackers and telecoms, which are expected to drive future growth. Retail

Segment has already demonstrated superior performance and we expect it to accelerate further in the

coming years. The Company is the largest retailer in the country, having presence across various segments.

RIL has 9907 stores across India and has added 2300 stores in the nine months of FY19. Retail revenues

almost tripled from Q1 FY18 (Rs 11500 cr) to Q3 FY19 (Rs 35577 cr). Reliance Digital is the largest retailer

of consumer electronics in the country. Reliance Trends continues to be the largest fashion retailer in India.

In Q3 FY19, RJIO clocked EBITDA margin of 39%, almost flat QoQ. Subscribers grew robust 11% QoQ to

280mn. In the first nine months, Jio added 94mn subscribers. ARPU for Q3 FY19 was at Rs 130, which is

the highest among telecom players, currently. Capex during the 9M FY19 in the telecom segment was at

Rs 470bn. Petchem, Jio and Retail businesses have done well in 9M FY19. Jio’s parent RIL has announced

acquisition of leading MSOs Hathway (51%) and Den Networks (66%) primarily through fresh issuance of

shares for Rs 53bn. It also plans to make an open offer to these companies. Jio has a robust product

proposition for home security and solution.

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Reliance Jio’s (RJio) 3QFY19 operating performance continued to be strong. Subs/Revenue/EBITDA/APAT grew 11/12.4/13.3/22%

QoQ. Interest and depreciation witnessed rise of 10/9.5% QoQ

Wireless momentum healthy: Jio reported healthy 28mn sub additions in 3Q (vs. 37mn in 2Q, 133mn in trailing 12m) to 280.1mn

(+11% QoQ). 2Q net additions included Government projects in MP/Rajasthan. 3Q also had an impact of discontinuation of eKYC

norms. ARPU declined by 1.3% QoQ to Rs 130

Asset monetisation key to de-leverage: Jio is looking to monetise tower and fiber assets. Monetisation is likely through InvIT route

where it can discount future cash flows. Currently, it would be predominantly Jio’s payout. Jio is open to share towers and fiber

with peers at market price

Other key takeaways

Refining

Gasoline cracks impacted globally, and particularly in China where exports increased amid weak car sales. US exports were also

higher due to lean season. Gasoline affected naphtha besides better propane economics for crackers

Domestic retail and bulk sales volumes continued to grow

Expect strict compliance of IMO shipping norms except for a few coastal routes. Shift likely from H2CY19. China has been quite

sincere and US domestic port emission norms are stricter than IMO. VGO may be diverted for blending if LSFO premiums are high,

which can reduce FCCU gasoline output, raising gasoline cracks though forecast is weak.

Refineries are having shutdowns for IMO upgrades which can support near-term GRMs. RIL’s ongoing shutdown is also for IMO

upgrade. Larger vessels will go for scrubbers but not entirely. Against 12,000-15,000 vessels, 2,500-3,000 may go for it. Getting

compliant bunker fuel is challenging

Diesel-FO forward spreads are volatile and over the place, though some moderation would be there

Four DTA petcoke gasifiers are being stabilized, while six SEZ ones are under implementation, which is expected to be over by the

end of March 2019. Expect operationalization after that period. Currently, project earnings are reverse capitalised

Petrochem

American and Chinese crackers to come online in CY19. Trade war resolution can, however, improve demand

Polyester margins impacted by the slowdown in China and India. PTA margins were impacted by lower prices. PX, however, was

strong with supply tightness and robust Chinese demand. Fiber intermediary production was raised by 4% QoQ, while polyester

dropped due to plant maintenance

New Chinese PX capacities will start by Q4CY19 and will take 3-4 months to stabilize. PX margins are likely to be flat or better.

Similar trend could be seen in PE and PP as well. MEG is likely to be weak. China will be a major factor, but in the near term factors

such as the Lunar New Year should support

RIL sells 80-85% volumes in the Indian market; hence, demand-wise China is not a significant factor

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Do not expect spike in US ethane prices as availability is there. Have flexibility to stop ethane sourcing if economics turn unfavorable.

Ethane imports are in line at a 1.5-1.6mmtpa run-rate Current ROGC volume rate is 184 tons/hour versus 168 capacity. PE, MEG

output is 1.2 and 1.3x capacity. SIBUR JV plant is close to commissioning

In US shale, gas realizations improved but liquids were down. Drilled five wells in Chevron JV, which would come by mid-CY19 and

production should rise

Retail

Core Retail EBITDA margin of 7.2% on gross revenue and 8.5% on net. 98% national coverage taluka wise. Same-store sales

growth stood at 20%+

Reliance Retail app is under testing and will take 3-4 months trial on omni-channels to be completed. Additional details are awaited.

New ECOM policy should give some advantages to Indian retailers, as according to regulations foreign e-retailers cannot do B2C,

which they are now doing through Indian JVs. 40% of overall grocery is cash and carry.

Gross sales breakup is 17/31/8/34/10% on grocery/electronics/fashion & life/ connectivity/petro.

Digital Segment

Subscriber addition during the quarter was impacted by changes in e-KYC norms and it saw disruption for 15-20 days. However,

management stated that subscriber additions are now even higher than Aadhar-based activation. Further, the positive impact of

MNP has also accelerated in favor of JIO.

The company has been maintaining its share with 70% of Smart Phone industry additions on the JIO network.

Incremental net adds mix — between JIO Phone and Smart Phones — has largely remained the same over the last 5-6 months.

ARPU was impacted by increased offtake of the Monsoon Hungama Plan, which is priced at Rs 99/month. The starting plan of Rs

49 for JIO Phone is no more a popular plan as most subscribers now recharge for Rs 99. There is no reason to tweak tariffs as

revenue growth continues remain robust with incremental subscriber additions.

JIO now offers exclusive original content, which is partly produced in-house and the focus continues to strengthen original content

library.

Depreciation: as depreciation is expensed based on capacity utilization, management stated that the rate of depreciation change

will happen in FY20, while it did not quantify the increase.

Network capacity creation continues to remain higher than utilization levels.

The financial details and quantum of debt that will be transferred to both the entities will be disclosed after the demerger is

completed.

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FTTH and Enterprise

The Company is now reaching close to commercial launch timelines, while it did not state the exact timeline for the launch

Home broadband offering will come along IoT solutions where the target is to offer value-added services unlike plain vanilla

broadband services offered by the competitors

In the case of Enterprise, the company will soon be doing a commercial launch

Jio Phone users are active and in line with smartphones. They are upgrading to higher plans

Expenses are still growing. Other expenses in Q3 had forex gains on liabilities

Will go aggressive on FTTH

Awaiting approvals for Den and Hathway acquisition. Currently on trial runs but achieving readiness to go commercial

Once 99% targeted coverage is hit, mobility capex would peak out and after that only capacity capex would be there. Network is

ready for 5G or future Gs

70% of new smartphone sales were on Jio, indicating smartphone versus JioPhone breakup on subs addition. MOU profile of JioPhone

similar to smartphone.

View & Valuation

We believe the Company may post 11.2% revenue and 13% PAT CAGR on standalone basis over FY18-21E. As Consumer and Telecom

segment gets bigger, they would post better earnings growth. Telecom (RJIO) is expected to see 30% revenue and 49% PAT CAGR over

FY19-21E. By end of FY21, RJIO may end up with around 41cr subscribers. Reliance trades at 12x FY21E earnings on consolidated basis,

which is attractive, given their strong growth outlook over the next few years. We recommend Buy on Reliance at cmp of Rs 1247 and add

on dips to Rs 1140 with TP of Rs 1440 over the next 12 months

Risks

Slowdown in global demand or larger than expected capacity additions could impact RIL’s refining and chemical margins

Delay in the commissioning of key upcoming core projects: petcoke gasification and off-gas cracker, could significantly impact

earnings

Delays in government approvals for India E&P or weak domestic gas prices could hamper progress in upstream

Weak US natural gas prices could lower the profitability of shale gas assets, though it could be offset by the liquids-rich acreages

which are currently highly profitable

Rupee appreciation may impact negatively as RIL is positively leveraged to the depreciating currency

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Results Analysis (Standalone)

(Rs bn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY(%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) 9MFY19 9MFY18 YoY %

Revenues 1,000.96 732.56 36.6 961.67 4.1 2,874.22 2,060.05 39.5

Material Expenses 747.93 497.17 50.4 707.98 5.6 2,114.85 1,413.93 49.6

Employee Expenses 14.56 11.42 27.5 14.93 (2.5) 44.29 34.94 26.8

Other Operating Expenses 93.40 86.53 7.9 89.84 4.0 269.55 228.02 18.2

EBIDTA 145.07 137.44 5.6 148.92 (2.6) 445.53 383.16 16.3

Depreciation 25.86 24.75 4.5 27.45 (5.8) 80.93 69.01 17.3

EBIT 119.21 112.69 5.8 121.47 (1.9) 364.60 314.15 16.1

Other Income 24.56 16.24 51.2 20.12 22.1 65.36 55.99 16.7

Interest Cost 24.05 10.94 119.8 24.17 (0.5) 69.60 31.96 117.8

PBT 119.72 117.99 1.5 117.42 2.0 360.36 338.18 6.6

Tax 30.44 33.45 (9.0) 28.83 5.6 94.29 89.03 5.9

RPAT 89.28 84.54 5.6 88.59 0.8 266.07 249.15 6.8

APAT 89.28 84.54 5.6 88.59 0.8 266.07 249.15 6.8

EPS 13.7 13.3 3.1 13.6 0.8 40.9 38.9 5.1 Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research

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Revenues Split (%) – 9M FY19

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

53.6

22.8

0.7

16.4

5.80.7

Refining

Petrochemicals

Oil & Gas

Retail

Digital

Media

EBIT Mix (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

31.5

48.5

7.7

12.3

Refining

Petrochemicals

Retail

Digital

Retail Revenues Split (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

17.8

30.5

8.0

9.7

34.0

Grocery & Others

ConsumerElectronics

Fashion & Lifestyle

Petro Retail

Connectivity

Telecom Subscribers Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

123139

160

187

215

252

280

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Q1 FY18 Q2 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q4 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19

# mn

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Market Share: Total Subscribers (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

29.2

36.6

22.5

9.71.8

Bharti Airtel

Vodafone & Idea

Rel Jio

BSNL

Tata Tele

Wireless Internet Users (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

20.4

20.453

4 2.2

Bharti

Vodafone & Idea

Rel Jio

BSNL

Others

Rel Jio Revenues Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

20158

39808

55352

67118

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Rel Jio EBITDA and EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

6734

15108

21582

27788

33.4 38.0 39.0

41.4

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

OP OPM

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Rel Jio PAT Trend

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

723

3077

4633

6777

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Subscribers Estimates (mn)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

186

305

383405

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

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SOTP Valuation (Based upon Dec-20E)

Business EBIDTA (Rs bn) Multiple Value (Rs bn) Value per share Valuation basis

Petrochemicals 333 9.8 3263 545 EV/EBITDA on Dec 20E

Refining 298 7 2145 360 EV/EBITDA on Dec 20E

E & P

PMT 13 6.0 78 13 EV/EBITDA on Dec 20E

KG D6 54 9 NPV

NEC 25 4 NPV

CBM 24 4 NPV

Shale Gas 4.9 1.0 343 58 x Inv as on Mar-18

Investments in Retail 89.9 20.8 1870 320 EV/EBITDA on Dec 20E

Investments in Telecom 3,179 537

Consolidated net Debt (2,549) -410 x as on Dec-20E

Value per share 8432 1,440

Source: Company, HDFC Sec Research, * Valuation is based on 5.92bn shares (net of treasury shares)

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Balance Sheet (Standalone)

Rs bn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Share Capital 63.35 63.35 63.35 63.35

Reserves And Surplus 3,083.12 3,399.83 3,780.52 4,180.96

Total Equity 3146.5 3463.2 3843.9 4244.3

Long-term Debt 815.96 965.96 865.96 765.96

Short-term Debt 634.89 705.06 650.76 596.55

Total Debt 1450.85 1671.02 1516.72 1362.51

Deferred Tax Liability 279.3 284.9 290.5 296.4

Long-term Provision 27.09 27.6 28.2 28.8

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 4903.7 5446.7 5679.3 5931.9

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 2009.6 2011.5 2055.2 2093.2

Capital WIP 994.8 1192.7 1310.7 1428.8

LT Loans And Advances 177 193.3 197.2 201.1

Total Non-current Investments 1754.7 1874.7 1874.7 1874.7

Inventories 395.7 506.2 510.4 514.2

Debtors 104.6 107.7 108.6 109.4

Cash and Cash Equivalent 560.1 574.6 585.5 606.8

Other Current Assets 178.8 236 294 367.3

Total Current Assets 1239.1 1424.5 1498.7 1597.7

Creditors 886.8 861.7 868.8 875.2

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 384.7 388.3 388.3 388.3

Total Current Liabilities 1271.6 1250 1257 1263.5

Net Current Assets -32.55 174.5 241.6 334.2

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 4903.7 5446.7 5679.3 5931.9 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Income Statement (Standalone)

Rs bn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Revenues 2900.4 3931.5 3963.7 3993.1

Growth (%) 19.8 35.5 0.8 0.7

Raw Materials 2020.7 2822.8 2755.9 2747.1

Employee Expenses 47.4 57.8 70.5 86.1

Other Expenses 315 462.3 447.2 450.9

EBITDA 517.4 588.5 690 709

EBITDA (%) 17.8 15 17.4 17.8

Growth (%) 19.6 13.7 17.2 2.8

Depreciation 95.8 111.7 116.7 122.4

EBIT 421.6 476.8 573.3 586.6

Other Income 82.2 90.1 98.8 109.4

Interest 46.6 72.9 74.5 67.3

PBT 457.3 493.9 597.8 628.7

Tax 121.1 121 149.4 157.2

APAT 336.1 372.9 448.3 471.5

Growth (%) 7 11 20.2 5.2

EPS 53.1 58.9 70.8 74.4

Growth (%) 7 11 20.2 5.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)

Rs bn FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Reported PBT 457.25 493.96 597.7 628.72

Non-operating & EO Items -62.92 -90.09 -98.84 -109.34

Interest Expenses 10.7 72.93 74.47 67.26

Depreciation 95.8 111.7 116.7 122.4

Working Capital Change 205.3 -186.3 -49.9 -64.9

Tax Paid -86.15 -121.02 -149.42 -157.18

OPERATING CASH FLOW (a) 620 281.2 490.66 486.94

Capex -247 -311.4 -278.4 -278.5

Free Cash Flow 373 -30.2 212.3 208.4

Investments -327.4 -120 - -

Non-operating Income 82.2 90.1 98.8 109.3

Others

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -492.19 -341.34 -179.56 -169.16

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 91.4 146.9 -103 -102.9

Interest Expenses -10.7 -72.93 -74.47 -67.26

FCFE 453.74 43.8 34.81 38.26

Share Capital Issuance 1.25 - - -

Dividend -39.2 -56.2 -67.6 -71.1

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) 42.8 17.8 -245 -241.3

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 170.6 -42.3 66.1 76.5

EO Items, Others -19.3 - - - Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Key Ratios

FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

PROFITABILITY %

EBITDA Margin 17.8 15 17.4 17.8

EBIT Margin 14.5 12.1 14.5 14.7

APAT Margin 11.6 9.5 11.3 11.8

RoE 11.1 11.3 12.3 11.7

Core RoCE 29.5 27.9 29.1 26.8

RoCE 8.6 9.2 10 9.8

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 26.5 24.5 25 25

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6

Inventory (days) 50 47 47 47

Debtor (days) 13 10 10 10

Other Current Assets (days) 22 22 27 24

Payables (days) 112 80 80 80

Net Debt/EBITDA 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.1

Net D/E 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 53.1 58.9 70.8 74.4

CEPS 68.2 76.5 89.2 93.8

Dividend 6.8 7.6 9.1 9.6

Book Value 497 547 608 670

VALUATION

P/E (x) 23 21.1 17.5 16.5

P/Cash EPS (x) 18 16.1 14 13

P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 16 14.5 12.1 11.5

EV/Revenue (x) 2.8 2.1 2 2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

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Ratings Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20%

OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15% &

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES

PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 35%

OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% &

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES

PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 50%

OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30% &

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES

PRICE CAN RISE BY 50% OR MORE

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Price Chart

# Explanation of Red Flag Price Level: If the stock price sustains below red-flag, the premise of investment needs to be reviewed. Risk-averse investors should exit the stock and preserve capital. The downside of following the red-flag level is that if the price decline turns out to be temporary and recovers subsequently, you won’t be able to participate in the gains.

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Reco Date Reco Price

Target Price Target Date

21-Oct-16 1064 1225 27-Feb-17

26-Dec-18 1098 Ujjwal 2019 -

Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

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Research Analyst: Kushal Rughani ([email protected])

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 3075 3450 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 SEBI Registration No.: INZ000186937 (NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX) |NSE Trading Member Code: 11094 | BSE Clearing Number: 393 | MSEI Trading Member Code: 30000 | MCX Member Code: 56015 | AMFI Reg No. ARN -13549, PFRDA Reg. No - POP 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent Licence No.-HDF2806925/HDF C000222657, Research Analyst Reg. No. INH000002475, CIN-U67120MH2000PLC152193. Disclosure: I, (Kushal Rughani, MBA), authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock – No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation.The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. 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HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business. HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. This report is intended for non-Institutional Clients only. The views and opinions expressed in this report may at times be contrary to or not in consonance with those of Institutional Research or PCG Research teams of HDFC Securities Ltd. and/or may have different time horizons. Disclaimer : HDFC securities Ltd is a financial services intermediary and is engaged as a distributor of financial products & services like Corporate FDs & Bonds, Insurance, MF, NPS, Real Estate services, Loans, NCDs & IPOs in strategic distribution partnerships. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Customers need to check products &features before investing since the contours of the product rates may change from time to time. HDFC securities Ltd is not liable for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of investments in these products. Investments in Equity, Currency, Futures & Options are subject to market risk. Clients should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges & the T&C on www.hdfcsec.com before investing. Equity SIP is not an approved product of Exchange and any dispute related to this will not be dealt at Exchange platform.