Data Science demystified
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Transcript of Data Science demystified
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1IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Data Science demystified
Murthy Kolluru, Ph.D.
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2IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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3IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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4IPL CONFIDENTIAL
How good is my customer?
• Within the first few weeks of engagement, figure out how muchrevenue can be expected in the first two years.
• 100,000 customers over 5 years and
a lot of data
• POS data, playing, demographics
• Over 50 attributes
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5IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
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6IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Probability of being high value = -0.25* age + 0.34* income + 0.78 * number of kids
Age Income Kids
Output
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7IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
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8IPL CONFIDENTIAL
If parents are old and number of kids is less than 2 and income is less than $10K,
the value is low
Output
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9IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
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10IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
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11IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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12IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Simplest form of non-linearity
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13IPL CONFIDENTIAL
By carefully combining simple non-linearities, you can get
highly non linear curves.
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14IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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15IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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16IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Finally mind is demystified!
Rival The New Yorker, December 6, 1958 P. 44
ABSTRACT: Talk story about the perceptron, a new
electronic brain which hasn't been built, but which has
been successfully simulated on the I.B.M. 704. Talk
with Dr. Frank Rosenblatt, of the Cornell Aeronautical
Laboratory, who is one of the two men who developed
the prodigy; the other man is Dr. Marshall C. Yovits, of
the Office of Naval Research, in Washington. Dr.
Rosenblatt defined the perceptron as the first non-
biological object which will achieve an organization o
its external environment in a meaningful way. It
interacts with its environment, forming concepts that
have not been made ready for it by a human agent. If
a triangle is held up, the perceptron's eye picks up the
image & conveys it along a random succession of lines
to the response units, where the image is registered. It
can tell the difference betw. a cat and a dog, although
it wouldn't be able to tell whether the dog was to the
left or right of the cat. Right now it is of no practical
use, Dr. Rosenblatt conceded, but he said that one
day it might be useful to send one into outer space to
take in impressions for us
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17IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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18IPL CONFIDENTIAL
• Blackbox models only solve part of the problem
• How do we get Explicability?
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19IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Attribute 4
Attribute 1
Attribute 2
Attribute 5
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20IPL CONFIDENTIAL
What we did
• Created more features
• Did they have a favorite game?
• How are the kids ages distributed?
• When did the first sale happen?
• …
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21IPL CONFIDENTIAL
Patterns
Favorite – Played a
game more than 50% of
the time
Uniform –Played multiple
games
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22IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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23IPL CONFIDENTIAL
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24IPL CONFIDENTIAL
24
Customers who are uniform in first 30
days are on average sticky and give
more revenues in two years.
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25IPL CONFIDENTIAL
First sale
Dec and Jan
win!
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26IPL CONFIDENTIAL
26
Upsell?
Dec & Jan lose
big!
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27IPL CONFIDENTIAL
• A great model on simple and incomplete data almost
always loses to a simple and incomplete model on great
data
• Pick unsolved problems in your business where you have
some past data
• Create as many additional factors as you can from the data
• View it from multiple angles in your Excel
• You will most likely have some Aha moments in store!!!
Action Points
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28IPL CONFIDENTIAL
There will be a shortage of
100,000 data scientists and
1,000,000 data smart
managers by 2020
Mckinsey
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29IPL CONFIDENTIAL
IPL’s Big Data Analytics Track
Architecting data science solutions &
products
Hands-on model building
Data visualizations
and story telling
Complexities in data sourcing,
privacy, security
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30IPL CONFIDENTIAL
THANK YOU
11/29/2014