Data needs and priorities

of research communityfor climate

Data needs and priorities

of research communityfor climate

Kevin TrenberthNCAR

Kevin TrenberthNCAR

The physical climate system

Some key events• 2007 (Oct): Joint WCRP/IGBP /GCOS Workshop: Future Climate Change

Research and Observations: GCOS, WCRP and IGBP Learning from the Fourth Assessment Report: Sydney, Australia– http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/SydneyWorkshopRep_FINAL.pdf – Trenberth 2008 WMO Bull.– Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS

• 2008 (May): World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction: ECMWF, Reading, UK

• 2009 (March): Joint IPCC/WCRP/IGBP Workshop: New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: U. Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii

• 2010 (Sept): WCRP-UNESCO Workshop: Metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events; Paris, France– Zolina et al. 2010 Eos

Global warming is “unequivocal”:Adaptation to climate change

Global warming is “unequivocal”:Adaptation to climate change• Assess vulnerability

• Devise coping strategies• Determine impacts of possible changes• Plan for future changes

Requires information

• Assess vulnerability• Devise coping strategies• Determine impacts of possible changes• Plan for future changes

Requires information

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Climate Information SystemClimate Information System

Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull

WCRPWCRP

Doherty et al. 2009: BAMS (April issue)

Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4:Scientific Developments Needed To

Understand, Predict, And Respond To Climate Change

Doherty et al. 2009: BAMS (April issue)

Recommendations:• 1) Improved process-level understanding,

climate models, observations of climate-relevant parameters and climate monitoring systems are needed in specific areas.

• 2) Because some degree of climate change is virtually certain (IPCC 2007), additional efforts are needed to make climate information more relevant to decisions concerning impacts, adaptation and mitigation.

Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs

1) Improve models2) Provide reliable climate

forecasts 10-30 year time frame, with uncertainties

3) Predictions with regional-scale climate information, accounting for land surface processes and biosphere–atmosphere interactions

4) Ensure the observational record: incl reprocessing and reanalysis

Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs5) Expand datasets to include

observations of the impacts of climate change and to account for autonomous or planned adaptation.

6) Systematically monitor and assess vulnerability

7) Harmonize across climate, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: consistent land use, land cover, emissions; climate assessments; historic and future

8) Better understand variations in the hydrological cycle, esp extremes

Doherty et al. 2009: Key research needs

10) Improve process modeling and understanding of feedbacks in the carbon cycle across the earth system.

11) Improve understanding of the processes involved in aerosol indirect forcing

9) Use physical process studies, observations, and syntheses to obtain a consensus on the possible nonlinear responses of ice sheets to climate change, including their influences on rates of sea level rise.

Modeling summit May 08

Develop strategy to revolutionize prediction of the climate through the twenty-first century and, in particular, to help address the threat of global climate change at the regional level. The outcome was the recommendation of a “Climate Prediction Project” http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModelingSummit/Documents/FinalSummitStat_6_6.pdf

Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS

An Earth System Prediction Initiative

Modeling summit repercussions

Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS:Shapiro, M., et al., 2007: The socio-economic and environmental benefits of a

revolution in weather, climate and Earth system analysis and prediction. The Full Picture, Group on Earth Observation, 136–138.

Hurrell, J. W., et al., 2009: A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction. BAMS, 90, 1819–1832.

Meehl, G., et al., 2009: Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 1467–1485.

Shukla, J., et al. 2009: Revolution in climate prediction is both necessary and possible: A declaration at the World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction. BAMS, 90, 175–178.

Shapiro et al., 2010: An earth-system prediction initiative for the Twenty-first Century. BAMS, 91, 1377-1388.

Nobre, C., et al., 2010: Addressing the complexity of the earth system. BAMS, 91, 1389–1396.

Brunet, G., et al., 2010: Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal to seasonal prediction. BAMS, 91, 1397–1406.

Shukla, et al., 2010: Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities. BAMS, 91, 1407–1412.

From Hollingsworth et al. 2005

Weather Prediction (T1279, ~15 km)compared with Satellite Observations

ECMWF predictions and Meteosat observationsMartin Miller and Peter Bechtold (ECMWF)

New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Important emerging science topics, (WG I): • sea level and ice sheet instabilities;• detection & attribution on the regional level, and of extremes;• methodology of multi-model ensembles;• cloud and aerosol processes and associated uncertainties;• atmospheric chemistry and climate;• Earth System modeling of climate, including biogeochemistry and land-surface interactions;• coverage of the full range of possible futures.

Expert meetings proposed:•Joint WGI-WGII IPCC Expert Meeting on "The Methodology of Detection and Attributionon Decreasing Space Scales and Extremes". •WGI Expert Meeting on "The Methodology Multi-Model Ensembles and Model Metrics"

2009 Hawaii Meeting

Other key events in 2009

Towards a Global Framework for Climate Services

WCC-3 emphasised the essential roles of observation and research in providing the basis for climate services

OceanObs ’09 developed a common vision for provision of routine and sustained global information on the marine environment

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WCRP extremes workshopWorkshop on metrics and methodologies of

estimation of extreme climate events: WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP)

• UNESCO, Paris: 27-30 Sept 2010• Chair: Olga Zolina• 132 from 32 countries• Oral, poster, discussion sessions; 3 Breakout

Groups• Community white paper, Eos* and BAMS(?) article• http://www.extremeworkshop.org/Goal: To provide much improved observational datasets and

model capabilities on variability and extremes, especially those that have high impacts on society and the environment; and develop a climate information system that include predictions and assessments of future changes in risk from extremes.

*21 Dec 2010 issue 17

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Reason for focus on extremes

Mean A: 50°F, s.d. 10°F

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Reason for focus on extremes

Shift in climate: from A to B

Most of time the values are the same (green).

Mean A: 50°F, s.d. 10°FMean B: 55°F, s.d. 10°F

Biggest changes in extremes: >200%

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Issues for extremes High resolution observations are not available (hourly) High resolution model data often not saved

Model results typically not available or archived Model definitions are often different from obs Model grid box value may not be comparable to mean

of grid box from observations Ability and utility of models

Model extremes are not well simulated. Improvements of models (intensity, frequency of precip etc) Improvements in resolution

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A milestone in developing the WCRP Strategy and an opportunity

to sense the views of the community

Major research opportunity

An Opportunity

22National Academy of Sciences: Keck Mural

Earth system complexity