Data Mining the App Store: Hidden Winners & Whale Spotting
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Transcript of Data Mining the App Store: Hidden Winners & Whale Spotting
Ric Moore
Why mine data?
De-risking Development• Where’s the mobile games market at?• How do you become at top 100 developer?• Are there hidden gems we can spot in the App Store charts?• Can you play ‘Moneyball’ with game development?
Where’s the mobile games market at?
Top Grossing Games – iPhone, USA, 2015
Public VC Independent
56%
32%
12%
Market share
Top 100 Grossing Developers, iPhone USA, 2015
9
7
6
5
5
4
2 156 Games - 22 Public Companies
Top Grossing Independent Games, iPhone, USA
#28
#67
#91
#56
#79
#93
#62
#81
#97
#64
#84
#100
$7.5k/day
$35k/day
Source: reflection.io
Top 100 grossing, iPhone, USA, 2015 - Genre Split
Casual Casino RPG Strategy & Simulation
Arcade Sports Word & Quiz0
5
10
15
20
25
30
What genres dominate?
How do you become a Top 100 developer?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5
8
14
12
32
1
Number of founders
Management Tech Art Design Marketing
43.45%
34.48%
6.90%
11.03%
2.76%
Co-founder's Background
Investors Check List
• Founding team of 2 - 4 people• Management experience• Tech experience• Founders worked together before• Games industry experience• Worked on a hit game
Hidden Winners
3/1/2
015
3/2/2
015
3/3/2
015
3/4/2
015
3/5/2
015
3/6/2
015
3/7/2
015
3/8/2
015
3/9/2
015
3/10/2
015
3/11/2
015
3/12/2
015
3/13/2
015
3/14/2
015
3/15/2
015
3/16/2
015
3/17/2
015
3/18/2
015
3/19/2
015
3/20/2
015
Rank History Example
Grossing Rank Download Rank
Hidden Winners, iPhone, USA, March 2015
http://reflection.io/
1 25 50 75 1000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
USA Top 100 Downloads, 1 day
Rank
Num
ber o
f dow
nloa
ds
Source: reflection.io
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
USA Top 100 Grossing, 1 day
Rank
Reve
nue
USD
Source: reflection.io
Hidden Winners iPhone USA March 2015 - Weighted
Whale Spotting
新部落守卫战 - 神兽驾到 第一塔防策略游戏by Tencent – reached top 10 grossing USA, iPhone
فزعة
세븐나이츠 for kakao
by Lumba – reached top 100 grossing
by Netmarbles – reached top 120 grossing
Are they doing this?
So can you play ‘Moneyball’with game development?
• It’s been going on for years• Charts lead the way:• DAU• MAU• Grossing
YES!!!
2007
#1
#2
#3
2010
#1
#2
2012
etc. etc. etc...
2009
In the pipeline
• Momentum Chart – the games with the biggest gains• Stickiness Chart – the games that have staying power• Soft Launch Chart – the games in soft launch, the ones to watch• New genres – using metadata to define new categories of games
