Qs 2011_3 Qd 2011_2Pd 2011_2 Qs 2011_31 8303 5020 87031 1 83032 18299 20684 66966 2 182993 20287 10240 71679 3 202874 12658 13994 68381 4 126585 6515 4418 76460 5 65156 13601 6523 71830 6 136017 3276 13085 67307 7 32768 10064 2333 67097 8 100649 3932 3427 77539 9 3932

10 532 10841 78521 10 53211 78476 104411 62530 11 7847612 60322 25930 59819 12 6032213 7657 43602 61101 13 765714 112447 6837 56229 14 11244715 25806 68399 67734 15 2580616 8081 22169 46722 16 808117 10958 8681 59108 17 1095818 8668 12994 56759 18 866819 10437 10903 73488 19 1043720 3116 6960 77208 20 311621 8459 5668 76744 21 845922 8240 9224 81481 22 824023 4446 3496 62500 23 444624 3058 990 71804 24 305825 11026 2474 69644 25 1102626 2709 8629 63073 26 270927 3985 571 63122 27 398528 3917 1252 72321 28 391729 1320 1647 56554 29 132030 274 558 69299 30 27431 2316 10002 76749 31 231632 2737 1925 82924 32 2737

Pd 2011_287031 166966 271679 368381 476460 571830 667307 767097 877539 978521 1062530 1159819 1261101 1356229 1467734 1546722 1659108 1756759 1873488 1977208 2076744 2181481 2262500 2371804 2469644 2563073 2663122 2772321 2856554 2969299 3076749 3182924 32

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 320

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Chart Title

Qs 2011_3 Pd 2011_2

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Chart Title

Qs 2011_3 Pd 2011_2

Qd 2011_2Pd 2011_25020 87031

20684 6696610240 7167913994 68381

4418 764606523 71830

13085 673072333 670973427 77539

10841 78521104411 62530

25930 5981943602 61101

6837 5622968399 6773422169 46722

8681 5910812994 5675910903 73488

6960 772085668 767449224 814813496 62500

990 718042474 696448629 63073

571 631221252 723211647 56554

558 6929910002 76749

1925 82924

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 320

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Chart Title

Qs 2011_3 Pd 2011_2

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Chart Title

Qs 2011_3 Pd 2011_2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031320

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Qd 2011_2Pd 2011_2

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P

Qs P Pe29979 0 391 40000 Qe14985 49000

0 97970.59 10133.72 64853.87 39002.55

31751 120000

391 10133.71704 317510

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100000

120000

140000P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

0.698 Harga dagi 0 5637845268 0.05 58196.9

64853.87 0.1 60015.810133.72 0.2 63653

391 10133.71704 317510

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Jumlah (ton)

Cif t10= 60,015

Cif t5= 58,197Cifo

Cif t20= 63,653

391 10133.71704 317510

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140000P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Cif t10= 60,015

Cif t5= 58,197Cifo

Cif t20= 63,653

Harga CIF USD 404.2 3.861 (sumber : Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 2012)Kurs 9000 34749Harga CIF Rp 36378Tarif impor 5% 1818.9

10% 3637.820% 7275.6

Asumsi by pengiriman+keuntungan Rp 20000

Harga daging impor tahun 2011 RpHarga daging impor dengan tarif 0% 56378

5% 58196.910% 60015.820% 63653.6

Harga daging impor tahun 2013 50000 www.portalkbr.com (Importir : Impor Daging sapi seperti menggarami air laut by Doddy Rosadi 6 Agustus 2013

(sumber : Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian 2012)

www.portalkbr.com (Importir : Impor Daging sapi seperti menggarami air laut by Doddy Rosadi 6 Agustus 2013

39002.55

www.portalkbr.com (Importir : Impor Daging sapi seperti menggarami air laut by Doddy Rosadi 6 Agustus 2013

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P

Tarif Surplus konsumen Surplus produsen

0 264,681,339,605 59,173,620,540 5 242,037,780,203 72,210,914,419

10 220,406,590,348 86,545,100,005 20 180,187,619,930 119,098,348,440

Harga d 0 56,378 0.05 58,197

0.1 60,016 0.2 63,653

Tarif Penerimaan Pemerintah Consumer Dead weigt loss5% 8,451,634,896 648,445,853

10% 12,284,747,286 2,593,783,413 20% 6,097,948,650 10,373,422,500

Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P

Penerimaan Pemerintah

8,451,634,896 648,445,853 506,184,773 12,284,747,286 2,593,783,413 2,024,739,093 6,097,948,650 10,373,422,500 8,097,620,625

Producer Dead Weight loss Society Ineficiency 506,184,773 1,154,630,626 2,024,739,093 4,618,522,505 8,097,620,625 18,471,043,125

Consumer Dead weigt loss

Producer Dead Weight loss

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

CiftCifo

a

b

c

def g

jumlah permintan

di DN

impor

jumlah penawaran

di DN

Qs

Qd

391 10133.71704 317510

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

CiftCifo

a

b

c

def g

jumlah permintan

di DN

impor

jumlah penawaran

di DN

Qs

Qd

391 10133.71704 317510

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

CiftCifo

a

b

c

def g

jumlah permintan

di DN

impor

jumlah penawaran

di DN

Qs

Qd

391 10133.71704 317510

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40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Cif t10= 60,015

Cif t5= 58,197Cifo

Cif t20= 63,653

391 10133.71704 317510

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40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Cif t10= 60,015

Cif t5= 58,197Cifo

Cif t20= 63,653

KEBIJAKAN SWASEMBADA SAPI

ANGGARAN 5 TAHUN 18,700,000,000,000 RpANGGARAN 2011 3,740,000,000,000 RpPRODUKSI SAPI 2011 485,333,000 kgSUBSIDI PER KG DAGING SAPI 7,706 Rp

Kondisi keseimbangan 2011 (sdh tmsk subsidi Rp 7.706/kg)P0 64,854 kgQ0 10,134 ton Kondisi keseimbangan tanpa subsidiHarga 2011 tanpa subsidi 69,182 kgQ 2011 tanpa subsidi 8,809 ton

Simulasi subsidi besar subsidi5% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi 3,459 20% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi 13,836

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 5% 67,239 kg 9,404 ton

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 20% 61,411 kg 11,187 ton

P5Q5

P20Q20

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Ps20= 61.411

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Po=69.182

Ps5= 67.239Ps2011=

64.854

Q20Q2011

Q0

Q5

Qd

Qs20

Qs5Qs0

Qs2011

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P'

Qs'

Qd

P0

Q'Q0

Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Ps20= 61.411

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Po=69.182

Ps5= 67.239Ps2011=

64.854

Q20Q2011

Q0

Q5

Qd

Qs20

Qs5Qs0

Qs2011

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P'

Qs'

Qd

P0

Q'Q0

Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Ps20= 61.411

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Po=69.182

Ps5= 67.239Ps2011=

64.854

Q20Q2011

Q0

Q5

Qd

Qs20

Qs5Qs0

Qs2011

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P'

Qs'

Qd

P0

Q'Q0

Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

Qd =29979 - 0.306 P

Subsidi Surplus konsumen

0 126,803,770,325 5 144,497,868,866 tahun 2011 167,797,723,374 20 204,500,334,266

PRODUKSI SAPI 2011 485,333,000 Harga daging impor dengan tarif Harga 2011 tanpa subsidi

Harga baru dengan subsidi 5%P0Harga baru dengan subsidi 20%

Kondisi keseimbangan 2011 (sdh tmsk subsidi Rp 7.706/kg)P0 64,854 Q0 10,134 Kondisi keseimbangan tanpa subsidiHarga 2011 tanpa subsidi 69,182 Q 2011 tanpa subsidi 8,809

Simulasi subsidi besar subsidi 5% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi 3,459 20% x harga 2011 tanpa subsidi 13,836

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 5%P5 67,239 Q5 9,404

Kondisi keseimbangan subsidi 20%P20 61,411 Q20 11,187

Qs0= -18309,752 + 0.392P 46708.5510204082Qs5=-16953,824 + 0.392 P 43249.5510204082Qs = -15289 + 0.392 P 39002.5510204082Qs20= -12886.04 + 0.392PSurplus produsen

98,989,160,296 112,796,757,820 32,528,714,594 130,984,957,532 78,090,418,057 159,629,814,367 154,789,151

kg 69,182 67,239 64,854 61,411

kg ton

kgton

kgton

kgton

Pengeluaran pemerintah

391 10133.71704 317510

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P'

Qs'

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Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

Q0 10,134

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Ps20= 61.411

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Po=69.182

Ps5= 67.239Ps2011=

64.854

Qs20Qs201

1

Q0

Qs5

391 10133.71704 317510

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P'

Qs'

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Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

391 10133.71704 317510

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P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Ps20= 61.411

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

P (Rp)

Jumlah (ton)

Po=69.182

Ps5= 67.239Ps2011=

64.854

Qs20Qs201

1

Q0

Qs5

391 10133.71704 317510

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Jumlah (ton)

P'

Qs'

Qd

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Q'Q0

Qs0

a

bc

d e

fg

h

TrendGrafik Qd-QsHarga CIfDampak ImporPerhit subsidiDampak subsidi