Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA: Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI)

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision

making28th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision

making28th- 29th September 2006

Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA: Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence

(SWAMI) Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre

DG JRC IPTS – ICT Unit

SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Dark Scenarios

IPTS – ICT Unit: Research agenda

Problem and policy driven:

What can ICT do for the broader socio-economic challenges of the EU (focus on Lisbon goals)?

Prospective:

– How to develop Europe into a knowledge society?

– What are the mid to long term R&D strategies needs with regard to European innovation in ICT and

– What are emerging ICT driven areas Europe should be active in?

Scientific:

Understanding how technical inventions in ICT become successful innovation/societal realities


IPTS – ICT Unit: Research activities

IS & Growth

– Competitiveness of the ICT R&D system in Europe

– IST based growth models and challenges (regional, global/Asia and NMS)

E-Applications

– ICTs for Inclusion and Quality of Life

– The future of eServices – Web 2.0 – Proactive role of users

Techno-Economic Foresight in the Information Society (TEFIS)

– European Prospective in the Information Society (EPIS)

– e-Identity charter


Introducing Ambient IntelligenceAmI is convergence of

Ubiquitous Computing• Not only pc but also non-pc devices (everyday objects);

• These devices will ‘sense’;• These devices will be ‘smart’;

Ubiquitous Communication

• These devices will ‘communicate’;

• These devices will be ‘connected’

Ubiquitous Interfaces• Intelligent User Friendly Interfaces

• Pro-active, context-aware and personalised

ISTAG vision: human-centred computing at the service of mankind

ISTAG Scenarios on AmI (2000) - AmI in FP6 (2002-2006)

Emergent property – next generation ICT


SWAMI Dark ScenariosSWAMI Project (2005-2006) Identify and analyse the SELT issues related to identity, privacy

and security in the future Ambient Intelligence (AmI)

Dark scenario objectives Identify and highlight potential vulnerabilities and associated threatspotential vulnerabilities and associated threats

Develop/propose safeguards to address vulnerabilities and threats

The need to develop dark scenarios Contrast predominance of “bright scenarios” and bright futures

ICT – AmI not the domain of traditional risk analysis and assessment

Less risky today but not in knowledge-based information society Alert policy makers and RTD actors as to the need to develop safeguards

Support the realisation of AmI


SWAMI Dark Scenarios methodology

No unique methodology Not predicting or forecasting the future

Looking for an understanding as to anticipate and work towards the futures

A tool for stimulating debate, structuring thinking, ‘what if’ games, aiding in synthesis, and raising awareness intuitively

Approach similar to mainstream scenario exercises (iterative and analytical)

Specific to SWAMI

Alternative visions of future we do NOT want to realize

No doom scenarios where everything goes wrong

Scenarios “not only” end in themselves “but also” an instrument for safeguards

Realistic & plausible scenarios: extrapolate from current trends both in terms of situations and in terms of technologies…


SWAMI Scenario Approach

Literature review Experts workshop Internal workshop Drafting scenarios

Scenario stories

Scenario analysis

Situations AmI technologies AmI applications DriversIssues Legal

Technology check Reality check


Four Dark Scenarios

Scenario 1: A typical family(at home, at work, outdoors)

Scenario 2: Seniors on a journey(travel and health issues)

Scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom & court-case

(data aggregator)

Scenario 4: Risk Society(Digital Divide, environment, traffic & crowd management)

Private Sphere / Private concerns

Individual / micro level

Public Sphere / Public concerns

Society / macro level


Dark scenario 1: a Typical Family

Story overviewA typical family in 3 different but blurring environments at Home, at Work and also outdoors, making use of AmI devices and services. System vulnerabilities and crime opportunities are exploited as the family leads an everyday life.

Different scenes

Scene 1 – At Home: Digital blackmail, unfounded suspicions due to extensive profiling, impacts on work and home environments.

Scene 2 – At Work: Shopping while at work, data laundering, accidental mistake and consequences.

Scene 3 – At the Park: Location-based advertising, irritation, consequences, dependence on AmI, exclusion; erroneous identification, AmI facilitated crime, usability/costs.


Dark scenario 2: Seniors on a journey

Story overviewFocuses on senior citizens and their health related needs while on a bus tour abroad. An exploited vulnerability in the traffic system causes an accident, raising many different issues such as: individual needs vs. economies of scale; reliance on AmI infrastructure; equal and fair access, usability and accessibility principles.

Different scenesScene 1 - News from the police report: Senior citizen dies after bus accident

Scene 2 - Travel preparation and check-in procedure for public transportation

Scene 3 - Traffic supported by ambient intelligence

Scene 4 - Emergency situation

Scene 5 - Ambient intelligence and medical care


Dark scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom

Story overviewA ‘Data Aggregator’ successfully corners the data market for public and private sector clients until their business model is exposed to society-at-large through insider data theft, and fraudulent data use. Media reports uncover the scandal and a court case puts a stop to abuse. However, it will take the victims much

more time to gain control over their personal data that have been exposed.

Different scenesScene 1 – Management Board Meeting: data aggregation and mining, data theft, dependency on AmI infrastructure, risks in business setting.

Scene 2 – The Court case: future legal framework does not allow misuse of abuse of data collected, democratic principles prevail.


Dark scenario 4: Risk Society

Story overviewDifferent stories on likely adverse consequences of AmI for society at large including public action against personalised profiling, global scale digital environmental divides and public life disruptions. In all cases AmI diffusion is both widening and bridging existing gaps.

Different scenesScene 1 – The Anti-Personalised Profiling Action Group (APPAG).

Scene 2 – AmI Divides

Scene 3 – Public Life Disrupted by Virus Attack

Scene 4 - AmI-system aided mass risk management


Contents of dark scenariosDarkScen1 DarkScen2 DarkScen3 DarkScen4

Technology /Devices

Embedded tags; home sensors; biometrics; personal wrist communicator

Sensors / actuators; interfaces; comms; Health monitoring devices.

Biometrics; displays; voice activated cmds; surveillance; location implants; RFIDs; sensors & actuators.

Smart dust; positioning sensors; data mining; traffic routing; comms networks.

Applications

Security; spy ware; surveillance; tracking/monitoring LBS, DRM.

Communication Mngt system; support for elderly; health monitoring systems.

Immigration control; personalisation; profiling; targeted marketing; counter-terrorism.

Personalisation; environmental monitoring; security; anti-virus; crowd management.

Issues

Loss of control; disproportionate reactions due to profiling; exclusion, human factors in security.

Dependence; loss of control; privacy; exclusion; complex risk assessment; identity; crime;

Power Concentration; illusion of security; digital divide; trust; differences in legal regimes.

Personalised vs. group profiling; victimisation; digital divide; loss of control; dependency.


Dark scenarios: SafeguardsA multiplicity of threats & vulnerabilities -> multiplicity of safeguardsTechnological

Minimal data collection, transmission and storageData and software securityPrivacy protection in networkingAuthorisation and access control

Socio-economicStandards, AuditsTrustGuidelines for ICT researchAccessibility and social inclusionRaising public awareness

Legal and regulatoryPreserving the core of privacy and other human rightsData protection and securityConsumer protection law and electronic commerceInteroperability and international co-operation


Impact dark scenarios…

Recommendations Formalisation of risk assessment / management process with regard to Formalisation of risk assessment / management process with regard to

the risks posed by AmI to security and privacy.the risks posed by AmI to security and privacy.

Investment in an awareness campaign specifically focused on AmI.Investment in an awareness campaign specifically focused on AmI.

Review of the existing legal and regulatory framework with respect to Review of the existing legal and regulatory framework with respect to AmI.AmI.

Proactive in the development of a more comprehensive international co-Proactive in the development of a more comprehensive international co-operation frameworkoperation framework

Ensuring the projects that it funds take questions of privacy, security and Ensuring the projects that it funds take questions of privacy, security and trust into accounttrust into account


Dark scenarios: Conclusions (1/2)

Issues are widespread: Varied, Wide and Deep• Varied: AmI infrastructure touches upon all aspects of everyday life

• Wide: Dark situations can encompass “dark feelings” (ranging from irksome to burdensome; and entail annoyance and embarrassment) but also “dark experiences” such as theft, harassment, accidents etc.

• Deep: Impact can be severe (e.g. digital divide) and difficult to revoke (e.g.ID Theft)

Safeguards need to be widespread as well: SELT

Impact• Policymakers

• RTD and designers

• Wider audience

Zero-risk society is not possible or desirable


Dark scenarios: Conclusions (2/2)

Specific

• Few qualitatively new risks identified

• Current behavioural patterns will induce more risk in tomorrow’s AmI world: ICTs – AmI will become more “risky”

Methodological

• Successfully highlighted potential vulnerabilities & associated threats

• More than appealing scripts: detailed scenario analysis in terms of technologies /devices, applications, drivers, issues, legal analysis

• Dark scenarios need to be realistic and plausible: ‘reality and technology’ checks

• ‘Delicate’ exercise: how dark can you be?

• Maybe not dark scenarios but just realistic ones ….


Thank you

IPTS Team: Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre

[email protected]

SWAMI Consortium

ISI-Fraunhofer, VUB, VTT, Trilateral research & IPTS

http://swami.jrc.es

http://swami.jrc.es/

Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA: Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI)

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