Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc.
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Assessing Instability in the Information Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Age: Managing Overwhelming Information Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models with Simple Models Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc. Evidence Based Research, Inc.
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Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming Information with Simple Models. Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc. That Trust Thing. Social Domain Interaction Language Trust. A Picture of Trust Related Concepts. Formal Network. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Vice President Evidence Based Research, Inc.
Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Assessing Instability in the Information Age: Managing Overwhelming InformationManaging Overwhelming Information
with Simple Modelswith Simple Models
Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D.Vice PresidentVice PresidentEvidence Based Research, Inc.Evidence Based Research, Inc.
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That Trust ThingThat Trust ThingSocial Domain
InteractionLanguage
Trust
Physical DomainComputers
PhonesTools
Cognitive DomainKnowledgeExperience
Beliefs
Information DomainDataInput
FormalNetwork
InformalNetwork
A Picture of Trust A Picture of Trust Related ConceptsRelated Concepts
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OverviewOverview
Project OverviewProject Overview
Supplemental architectureSupplemental architecture
The baseline modelThe baseline model
Demonstrate the Model Demonstrate the Model
Strengths and weaknessesStrengths and weaknesses
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Project GoalsProject Goals
• Automatically and continuously harvest open Automatically and continuously harvest open source information to support analysissource information to support analysis
• Automatically derive and generate event data Automatically derive and generate event data for structured modelsfor structured models
• Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to Explore the utility of Bayesian Networks to identify instability / early warningidentify instability / early warning
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DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB
Parsing
LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor
Extract /Transform
KBKB
RuleDevelopment
RuleDevelopment
High Resolution Data High Resolution Data StreamStream
DBDB
Information Processing ArchitectureInformation Processing Architecture
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Linguistic Processor Refines Linguistic Processor Refines DataData
Event classification
Textual data of interest
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Instability indicators derived from: Scarborough, Grace. “Forecasting Political Instability in a Three-Year Period.”
Baseline (Time 0) Bayes NetBaseline (Time 0) Bayes NetModel is currently initialized using nominal dataIllustrative Value Only
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DocumentsOpen SourceAll Source DBDB
Parsing
LinguisticProcessorLinguisticProcessor
Extract /Transform
KBKB
RuleDevelopment
RuleDevelopment
Bayesian Inference ModelBayesian Inference Model
DBDB
Instability Assessment Process Instability Assessment Process OverviewOverview
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Create Input Data for Bayes NetworkCreate Input Data for Bayes Network
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Model Result at Time 1Model Result at Time 1
Changes Probability ofInstability
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Sample Results Over TimeSample Results Over Time
Probability of Violent Instability
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Time
Pro
babi
lity
AlertDesk
Officer
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Conclusions and Future ResearchConclusions and Future Research
ConclusionsConclusions• Appears to effectively “trigger” areas of interestAppears to effectively “trigger” areas of interest• Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit Provides consistent and traceable results (Audit
Trail)Trail)• Early indications of system scalability (Large Early indications of system scalability (Large
Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)Quantities of Data, Many Countries / Regions)• Scoped to information sources Scoped to information sources
Future ResearchFuture Research• Larger data set Larger data set • Adjudication of information quality (veracity, Adjudication of information quality (veracity,
sensitivity, bias)sensitivity, bias)• Instantiating Immature TheoryInstantiating Immature Theory
