Daniel Sil… · SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017 . Top Growth Performers 2016/2017 . Africa’s...
Transcript of Daniel Sil… · SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017 . Top Growth Performers 2016/2017 . Africa’s...
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www.danielsilkeglobal.com
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Trump’s Stocks Surge
Source: YAHOO FINANCE/CNN POLITICS, AS OF APRIL, 2017
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Trump’s Corporate Tax Breaks
Source: Wall Street Journal
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Trumps First Budget – Winners & Losers
Source: Al Jazeera
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SA Exports to US Rises
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AGOA as a Proportion of SA
Exports by Industry
Source: SAIRR
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UK GDP Disappoints
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Sharpest UK Retail Sales Decline since 2010
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UK Real Wage Growth Stalling
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Eurozone Consumer Confidence
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GDP & Trade – Better Days Ahead?
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Chinese Economy Shifts to New Sectors
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Africa’s Growth Slump
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Currency & Inflation Analysis
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Commodity Price Uptick
Source: World Bank Dec 2016
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Towards 2020: Coal vs Commodities
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SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017
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Top Growth Performers 2016/2017
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Africa’s Urbanization Continues
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Africa’s Demographic Explosion
Source: United Nations
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Africa’s Consumer Demand Potential
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SA’s GDP at a 7-Year Low
Source: Bloomberg
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South Africa’s GDP Underperformance
Source: Bloomberg
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GDP Per Capita back to 2013 Levels
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Manufacturing Production off Lows
Source: StatsSA
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Mining Production shows some Life!
Source: Chamber of Mines/StatsSA
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Better Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
Source: SATSSA
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Food Price Relief for SA Consumers
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Rand & Inflation – In Tandem
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
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Carry-Trade Seeking EM Assets
Source: Bloomberg
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Interest Rates dependent on Rand/Inflation
Source: StanLib
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Consumer Spending & Confidence Muted
Source: SATSSA
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Household Credit Extension Low
Source: SARB
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Retail Trade Sales y-o-y Under Pressure
Source: Stats SA
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Real Net-Worth per Household Declines
Sources: Momentum/Unisa; South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin March 2017
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75% of earning South Africans are not moving out of their income bands (2008-2012). Of those who do show income mobility, the amount of people moving up is matched by those that move down. UCT/Unilever Institute of Strategic Marketing 2017
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Tougher times for First-time Buyers
Source: FNB 2017
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SA’s Youth Unemployment
Source: SATSSA
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Radical Economic Transformation
“The structure of the economy will be transformed through industrialization, broad-based black economic empowerment & through strengthening & expanding the role of the state in the economy”. Jacob Zuma SONA 2017
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Pending Legislation on Land
Ceilings on the size of farms
Role & scope of valuer general
Additional claims for restitution
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President Zuma & Rural Development Minister Nkwinti have admitted that 90% of land claimants accepted financial compensation rather than land making a 30% redistribution target unrealistic.
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Concerns over radical economic transformation as applied to land reform may point to a patronage motivation involving transfers to selected beneficiaries. After all, most claimants want money rather than land anyway.
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An audit of state-owned land still not completed. Some 20000 land claims lodged in terms of the restitution process launched shortly after the ANC came to power have still to be finalised.
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The promised reopening of land claims has been put on hold because the Constitutional Court last year invalidated the restitution bill. When and if Parliament gets around to re-enacting it properly, as many as 379 000 new claims could be lodged, according to the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform.
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Agriculture Minister Senzeni Zokwana said the ANC was
unlikely to back such a policy at a party conference in June
and July, particularly given government efforts to attract
investment. "I don’t think so," he told Reuters on the sidelines
of an agricultural conference and exhibition when asked about
the possibility of seizures. "It will be challenged in the courts.
You would need to first amend the constitution to do that. The
issue is that to attract investors in any industry you need policy
certainty. If you are not sure whether you will find your farm
tomorrow or you will find shacks around it, you will not invest
in that land," he added.
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“We should present it in a way that seeks
to preserve the current commercial
farming community - which produces the
bulk of our food - and get black farmers
to a level where they can become
commercial farmers very soon.” Source: MoneyWeb May 2017
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Director General of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Mike Mlengana, stated that “it is no use handing over the land to someone who has no clue what to do with it”. Reform might not be as fast as people wanted, Mr Mlengana said, but "land grabs" were not the solution. SAIRR May 2017
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An alternative negative scenario is that cumbersome audits and other ‘complexities’ will be used as a pretext for legislation that cuts the red tape by taking all land into state ‘custodianship’, and then leasing it back – possibly without being classified as expropriation. Such legislation will almost fall foul of the courts. Similarly, ‘regulatory’ expropriation poses a danger. SAIRR 2017
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Tampering with the property clauses in the constitution will have a domino-effect in spooking investors & will be compared to Zimbabwe.
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Downgrades Under Way
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ABSA Purchasing Managers Index Pressured
Source: Bloomberg
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SA Govt. Debt to GDP Soars
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The Growing Gap: Revenue vs Expenditure
Source: Rand Daily Mail/Old Mutual
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Debt Service Costs Soar
Source: Paul Berkowitz 2016
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The Political Map - Purple Swings to Opposition
Source: News24
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Shifting Tide of ANC NEC Factions
Source: Nomura
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