DANIEL HIEBERTMETROPOLIS BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND

UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

Swedish immigration policy and politics: A window on

Europe

Outline

Context: the demographic challengeBasic facts about Sweden… and Swedish

politicsSwedish migration and integration policy and

administrationPossible changes to migration and integration

policyThe lessons of Sweden

Context

The demographic challenge of below-replacement fertility… general responses:

Ignore the problem (e.g., Italy)Increase net migration (e.g., Canada)Raise productivity and elongate working

careers (e.g., Japan)Restore fertility (e.g., Sweden)

Sweden: some basic facts

Population > 9 millionSize roughly equivalent to QuébecGovernment elected by modified proportional

representation Complex and flexible system with several quirks

Current government: right-centre coalition led by the Moderate Party (conservative) Next election: September 2010

Immigrants in Sweden

Total population > 1 million (~12.5%)Recent flows: 100,000 per yearTop source countries (1990-2007):

Finland Former Yugoslavia Iraq Iran Poland Norway Denmark Germany Turkey Chile

Swedish politics

Popular opinion evenly divided Right-centre group (49% in latest poll) Pink-red-green group (44%) Wild card: Sweden Democrats (populist party)

4% rule (currently 4.5% in polls) Anti-immigration policy; intention to dismantle

multiculturalism and offer incentives to either assimilate or leave Sweden; recently expelled vocal racists from party; irony… surprisingly strong immigrant presence in party

Popular opinion on migration

Not as ‘troubled’ as other European countriesCritical dividing point is on the asylum

system Negative side: concern over ‘bogus’ refugees and

enclaves, parallel lives Positive side: support for humanitarian policies

including asylum

Complex relationship to party politics (e.g., Social Democrats)

Swedish immigration policy

EU migration: open borders, unplanned, unregulated, invisible immigrants Open Labour Market but not social support Mentality of Sweden as part of Europe

Non-EU migration: permanent immigration is dominated by family reunification and asylum (mostly from Islamic countries) (nearly 90% of total) Mentality of immigration as a gift to outsiders who are

victims (public debate is about asylum and ethical issues) Very different from Canada

Admission systems

Humanitarian Resettlement program (~2000 annually)

NO TRANSPORTATION LOANS As in Canada, resettlement location is assigned

Asylum system Similar institution to IRB

Family Sponsorship requirement … similar to Canada

Economic Stepwise, employment driven

Integration in Sweden

Swedish society defined by: Affluence Welfare state with an ethic of redistribution Goal of gender equality Transparency of the state and the private sphere Widely shared cultural norms

Asylum migration (especially from Islamic countries) is popularly interpreted as a potential challenge to these core values

Frequent statements by Sweden Democrats reinforce these views

Managing Swedish migration and integration

National government Ministry of Justice includes Minister for Migration and Asylum

policy (Tobias Billström) Ministry of Integration and Gender Equity (Nyamko Sabuni)

Establishes integration policy, standards and provides funding Ministry of Employment (LM issues and employment

assistance) (T. Billström, as of 7 July!)Regional government: Negligible roleMunicipal government: Key role

Develops and administers most programs Adult education Social work and counselling Social housing

Some examples of inter-government cooperationNegligible role for NGOs and other partners

Newcomer perspective on services

All employment related services: Ministry of Employment Labour offices distributed throughout Sweden

All other services: Municipal government Fairly coherent and consistent package across

jurisdictions But, inevitable scale differences

Connection (through municipality) to education, housing, social welfare

Special case of asylum

Similar to Canada, but some key differencesWith temporary humanitarian visa, there is an

offer of housing (ABO vs. EBO) Context of social housing Self-housed asylum seekers live in large cities State-housed live in periphery Municipalities have a choice to participate Interesting connection between asylum and funding for

municipalities Economic outcomes…

Recently, asylum seekers entitled to work permits But exceptionally low employment rates

Changing migration policy

As in Canada, parties are not very far apart but there are some significant differences Left alliance: SDs determined to disperse immigrants

and refugees (“we will not let refugees live where they choose”)

Right alliance: determined to raise economic immigration Not through open-ended system like Canada By opening existing employer-driven system of stepwise

immigration … actively planning and building pathways Cautious approach with input from org. labour

Changing integration policy

Sweeping change planned for December, 2010, if Moderate party is still in power Sense of failed outcomes in refugee and family integration

Process of ’recentralization’ Areas of municipal responsibility will be shifted to the

national Ministry of Employment Focus will be on preparation for employment, with stronger

incentives to work (e.g., bonuses) Core indicator of success will be acquisition of a job

Aside: EU defined integration measures for all states to use in 2009 (Sweden led this initiative) Dominated by employment, income, education

New European integration indicators

Employment (standard measures)Education

Average educational attainment % low-achieving 15-year olds Drop-out rates

Social inclusion Median income; % low income % property ownership % perceiving health status as poor

Active citizenship % citizenship acquisition % immigrants among elected representatives

Perspective of the newcomer

‘One-stop shopping’ for servicesPlan is for ‘personal coach’ for each

newcomer

Unclear whether the left coalition would support this… but unlikely

Municipal governments will resist change

Aside: on data

How does the Swedish government monitor outcomes?

Population register data system… all records linked for individuals Widely available to researchers

(note: there is no census)Excellent ‘hard’, longitudinal data; poor ‘soft’

data

Challenges of the Swedish system

Dominance of high-need asylum newcomersRegionalization through housing policy

Unsatisfactory economic outcomesPerceived ghettoization in larger cities

E.g., riots in Malmoe in June, 2009Potential for hostile public debate

Limits policy developmentGeneral lack of policy-research interfaceSocially, immigration is eclipsed in

importance by focus on fertility and reproduction

The lessons of Sweden

Policy evolution does not necessarily only go in one direction Policy cycle: devolution and then reconcentration

Excellent data helps in evaluating program outcomes Swedish population registry is a 100% data system Widely available in government and to academic

researchers

Surprising outcomes (e.g., housing of asylum seekers)

Sweden as ‘Europe light’

Sweden has all the debates of Europe, but less of the acrimony Migration issues muted by demography; no sense of

urgency Also muted by tradition of social democracy and the

welfare state

Unfortunately, the less rancorous debates in Sweden are unlikely to influence other European countries

Strong interest in Canada on the part of SwedesPotential for new debates as employers become

more prominent in the immigration system