Daniel B. Gilbert CHIEF METEOROLOGIST

Weather Modification, Inc.

Fargo, North Dakota USA

Terry W. Krauss PROJECT DIRECTOR

Alberta Hail Suppression Project

Alberta Severe Weather Management Society

Alberta CANADA

WMI Photograph by Bradley Waller

Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting Fargo, North Dakota 22 April 2015

AHSP Project Area

AHSP Project Area

AHSP Project Area

SEEDING BUFFER ZONE

PROTECTED AREA

Approximately 11,100 mi2

(28,800 km2)

Cities and towns, not agriculture

RADAR & OPS CENTER

Quick History

• Alberta Research Program 1956-1986

• 1991 Calgary storm

• The Alberta Severe Weather Management Society (ASWMS)

• Rebirth of AHSP in 1996

+

Average Number of Lightning Days 1999 – 2009

Burrows and Kochtubajda (2010)

Hail frequency in Canada

Population Density

2011 Census

Operations Design

Five Aircraft: three Beechcraft C90 King Airs, two Cessna 340As.

Two aircraft bases, one in the south, west of Calgary, the other up north

just SW of Red Deer.

Operations are all directed from central operations area about

halfway between Calgary and Red Deer.

Cessna 340A 310 HP per side

1,650 fpm climb rate

220 kts max speed

29.8 kft service ceiling

24-30 BIPs, 102 EJs

2 wingtip generators

Two Cessna 340A aircraft are employed in the AHSP. Hailstop 2 is based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 4 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

King Air C90 550 HP per side

2,137 fpm climb rate

270 knots max cruise

30 kft service ceiling

48 BIPs and 306 EJs Three King Air C90 aircraft are deployed in the AHSP. Hailstop 1 and 5 are based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 3 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.

AHSP Infrastructure

The Key Personnel

• Alberta Severe Weather Manager Society

– Chairman: Todd Klapak

– Project Director: T.W. Krauss

• Weather Modification, Inc.

– On-Site Project Manager: Jody Fischer

– Chief Met./Operations Director: Dan Gilbert

Configuring TITAN parameters prior to the 2012 season. (Gilbert and Krauss, front to back.)

Shown here, the Operations Room contains, TITAN, CIDD, AirLink, VHF radio, radar log, etc.

Recent Improvements

• Radar upgrades in 2011 & 2014

• Dr. Krauss ASWMS Project Director in 2011

• Hailstop 5 added at Springbank in 2013

• Insurance industry CEU tours and lectures

• New paint on the radome 2013

• New Davis Weather Station 2013

• Updates to Suspension Criteria 2013

2011 Improvements - Radar • HiQ digital receiver

with Doppler

• New transmitter (modulator and power supply) now Pulse Systems solid state

• Latest TITAN version

• Ubuntu Operating System

2014 Upgrade Pedestal replacement New Receiver with Doppler New ARC Antenna Control System ARC GUI interface Latest TITAN and Ubuntu Linux

Concepts

Seeding Concepts Illustration from Canadian Geographic, based

on WMO schematic, 1995

Targeting

• Potential hailers headed for or developing over urban areas are targeted.

• Simultaneous seeding at cloud top and at cloud base.

Propagation Vector

Cell Motion

Storm Motion

TARGET AREA

30

31

CDC Strategy Description

-3 No Seed Clear skies, fair weather cumulus, or stratus (with no rain). No deep convection.

-2 No Seed Towering cumulus, altocumulus, alto-stratus, or nimbostratus producing rain for several hours or weak echoes (e.g. virga).

-1 No Seed Scattered convective rain showers but no threat of hail. No reports of lightning.

0 Patrol flights and potential seeding

Thunderstorms (at least one) but no hail. VIL < 20 kg/m2 within the project area or buffer zones on north, east, and south sides.

+1 Seed Thunderstorms with pea or shot sized hail (0.5 to 1.2 cm diameter). 20 kg/m2 < VIL < 30 kg/m2

+2 Seed Thunderstorms with grape sized hail (1.3 to 2.0 cm diameter). 30 kg/m2 < VIL < 70 kg/m2

+3 Seed Thunderstorms with walnut sized hail (2.1 to 3.2 cm diameter). 70 kg/m2 < VIL < 100 kg/m2

+4 Seed Thunderstorms with golf ball sized hail (3.3 to 5.2 cm diameter). VIL > 100 kg/m2

+5 Seed Thunderstorms with greater than golf ball sized hail (>5.2 cm diameter).

Daily Forecasts and CDC

Daily

Forecast

Sheet

F O R E C A S T I N G

POD, FAR, HSS, and CSI PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, FALSE ALARM RATIO, HEIDKE SKILL SCORE, AND CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

POD (Hailcast)

.81 .89 .75 .72 .77 .91 .80 .82 .69 .84 .91 .76

POD (WMI)

.90 .97 .98 .85 .85 .83 .68 .76 .69 .61 .60 .86

FAR (Hailcast)

.19 .15 .22 .21 .31 .29 .35 .30 .31 .45 .47 .56

FAR (WMI)

.19 .18 .23 .13 .14 .13 .20 .11 .14 .18 .30 .16

HSS (Hailcast)

.59 .66 .51 .49 .46 .44 .43 .46 .35 .31 .39 .33

HSS (WMI)

.66 .67 .68 .65 .72 .63 .49 .66 .55 .42 .51 .63

CSI (Hailcast)

.68 .77 .62 .64 .56 .45 .52 .50 .42 .40 .51 .39

CSI (WMI)

.74 .80 .76 .75 .73 .56 .52 .62 .53 .42 .49 .59

Operational Statistics

Season Se

ed

ed

Sto

rm

Day

s

Air

craf

t M

issi

on

s

Tota

l Flig

ht

Tim

e

(ho

urs

)

Sto

rms

See

de

d

AgI

Pe

r St

orm

(kg

)

Eje

ctab

le

Fla

res

BIP

Fla

res

See

din

g So

luti

on

(g

allo

ns)

Sea

son

Act

ivit

y R

an

k

Mean 31.2 102.6 211.7 92.4 2.32 5024 641 157.3

2014 32 128 259.5 101 3.79 10782 1020 228.6 3

2013 26 103 229.6 70 3.33 6311 636 131.7 10

2012 37 143 300.1 116 2.70 7717 914 260.3 2

2011 48 158 383.0 134 3.00 10779 1020 350.2 1

2010 42 115 271.8 118 2.20 5837 851 227.5 6

2009 20 38 109.3 30 1.60 451 237 56.5 19

2008 26 112 194.7 56 2.20 1648 548 113.5 14

2007 19 76 115.3 41 2.40 1622 413 77 18

2006 28 92 190.2 65 3.30 4929 703 145.4 11

2005 27 80 157.9 70 2.30 3770 515 94.2 15

2004 29 105 227.5 90 3.00 6513 877 132.7 7

2003 26 92 163.6 79 2.20 4465 518 92.6 13

2002 27 92 157.4 54 2.30 3108 377 80.3 17

2001 36 109 208.3 98 2.00 5225 533 140.8 8

2000 33 130 265.2 136 2.50 9653 940 141.3 4

1999 39 118 251.3 162 1.30 4439 690 297.5 5

1998 31 96 189.9 153 0.70 2023 496 193.8 9

1997* 38 92 188.1 108 1.00 2376 356 144.3 12

1996* 29 71 159.1 75 2.20 3817 542 80.5 16 *The 1996 and 1997 seasons began on June 15, not June 1, which has been the norm ever since.

Past five seasons have all ranked in top 10 most active Three busiest seasons occurred in last four years AgI per storm highest in 2013 & 2014 likely due to addition of fifth aircraft

Storm Tracks 2014

Flights by Time of Day

Case Study: 7 August 2014

Case Study: 7 August 2014

Conclusions

Hail Reports:

Golf balls in Airdrie

Two inch in western Red Deer

Pea size in eastern Red Deer

Toonie size 10 mi west of Radar

Grape size just west of Olds

Pea size at radar twice

Conclusions

Three consecutive cells impacted Airdrie

Total of 46,698 grams of seeding material dispensed

1,191 ejectable flares dropped (20 gram)

143 burn in place flares utilized (150 gram)

704 minutes of wing tip generators

All five aircraft flew for a total of 22h 47min flight time

Estimated damage greater than $500 Million

Questions?

Photograph

by B. Waller