Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith PorterSept. 30, 2009

NSF RESIN

• Fire / Debris Flow2007 and Station Fire Post Fire Coordination

• Earthquake / TsunamiShakeOut Earthquake Scenario and Tsunami Scenario

• Community Interface, Implementation, Tools and Training, Great Southern California ShakeOut

• Winter StormARkStorm Scenario

Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project

Earth Science

The Storm

Floods, Coastal Erosion,Landslides, Environmental

EngineeringStructures

Infra-structure

LifelinesFlood

Management

CasualtiesSocial Sciences Emergency

response

SocialImpacts

EconomicImpacts

POLICY

Building a Winter Storm ScenarioF

orecasting

The ARkStorm Team

• Atmospherics: Marty Ralph, NOAA Research/ESRL/PSD

• Atmospherics: Mike Dettinger, USGS Scripps

• Floods: Bill Croyle, DWR Flood Operations Center

• Floods: Justin Ferris, USGS California Water Science Center

• Landslides: Chris Wills, California Geological Survey

• Landslides: Jon Stock, USGS Earth Surfaces Processes Team

• Coastal: Patrick Barnard, USGS Coastal Marine Geology

• Coastal: Dan Hooover, USGS Coastal Marine Geology

• Physical Damages: Keith Porter, University of Colorado

• Environmental: Geoff Plumlee, USGS Minerals Program

• Environmental: Charles Alpers, USGS California Water Science Center

• Emergency Response: Mitch Miller, CalEMA

• Policy: Ken Topping, California State Polytechnic, San Luis Obispo

• Economics: Anne Wein, USGS Western Geographic Team

• Economics: Adam Rose, University of Southern California

The ShakeOut Scenario

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Road closures over time and % average trip time increase

3 days21%

12 days17%

13-49 days12%

50-140 days8%

San Pedro Port Operation

Cannot Separate Regional Goods

Port has1 weekStorage

•Ships wait•Few divert•Months to clear the back log

Cranes use power off thegrid

Commuting

Total commuters out of PS: 8084 850 commuters to unincorporated

-758 within Riverside county

Total commuters into PS: 18051 3888 commuters from unincorporated

Source: SCAG commute data based on 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package

9290 live and work in Palm SpringsMajority commute to and from Coachella Valley and RiversideCommuters to and from Kern and San Diego counties ignored

Electric power – revised estimates

Utility Service Outage and Restoration

High Impact County

Telecom: up to 4 days, but congestion and delaysPower: up to 1-4 months, Gas: up to 2 months, Water: up to 6 months

Power,Water Telecommunications Water,Power,Gas,Transportation

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150 200

Telecom

Gas

Power

water

% c

ust

om

ers

wit

h s

erv

ice

Exposure: % employment located in MMI9+

EDD 2006 4th quarter data, Ben Sherrouse & David Hester (USGS)Exposure Analysis

ShakeOut Economic Costs and Impacts

• Damage to Structures and Contents ($112.7b)

• Fire is biggest cause

• Business Interruption ($96.2b)

• Water is biggest shock

• Additional Costs

• Relocation ($0.1b)

• Traffic Delay ($4.3b)

Disaster Recovery• Phases (restoration, temporary, permanent)• Tasks, subtasks, and interdependencies• Time (pressure to return to normalcy vs. betterment)

Day Week Month YearTasks 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 4 6 8 10Damage Assessment and Repair Damage Assessment Closure and Relocation Demolition Geologic Evaluation Repair PermittingInfrastructure and Public Services Recovery Infrastructure Repair Public Facilities RepairHousing and Social Recovery Emergency Shelter Temporary Housing Repairs and Rebuilding

Business and Economic Recovery

Temporary Business Sites Repairs and Rebuilding

Recovery Management and Financing

Planning Recovery Management Recovery Financing

(Sources: Williams Spangle and Associates 1991; Spangle Associates 1994)

Housing and Social Recoveryregion

SEVERE RESIDENTIALDAMAGE

Time line of ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario Recovery

ShakeOut Engagement of Stakeholders:

Did they listen, think, act? Level Type of Decision-making

Emergency Response

Resilience (effective post disaster)

Mitigation (effective pre disaster)

Federal GG GG

State GG GG

Region SW GG SW

County GG GG

Local GG PS SW GG SW

District PS PS

Industrial Sector SW GG SW GG SW

Business PS SW

Individual PS

SW: ShakeOut Scenario Workshops, GG: Golden Guardian, PS: Public ShakeOut

CAT 4 is > 40 cm (~16 inches) in 3 days

Category 4

Jan. 1969 Precipitation

Jan 25, 1969 Monthly

Jan. 1969 (doubled Jan. 25)

Feb. 1986 Precipitation

Sum Feb. 1986 and Jan. 1969

Economic Activity

Time

Projected activity

Economics of a Natural Disaster

‘Disaster’(a few yrs.)

‘Catastrophe’(decades)

Stabilized activity

Impacted economic activity

Cumulative Losses/costs$s

Physical damage replacement

Emergency Response

Recovery

Business interruption

MITIGATION

EMERGENCY RESPONSEPREPAREDNESS

RESILIENCE

RESULTS

Zones show estimated locations of severely damaged bridges (roadway closures ≈ 5-7 months)

Roadways crossing the fault will be severely damaged (roadway closures ≈ 2 months or more)

Landslide and liquefaction damage to pavement

Indio

Palm Springs

San Bernadino

Zone 3

Zone 1

Zone 2

Zone 4

Zone 5

RiversideCorona

San Juan Capistrano

Palmdale

Baldwin Park

Long Beach

San Andreas Fault

Bridge Damage Zones