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TheDailyTckRace to the Future:www.tcktcktck.org

1 October 2011

Summary of the Current status/situationAt the end of the last session in Bonn we said that the job is unfinished and there is a needto continue work. And here we are gathered at the Centro de Convenciones ATLAPA inPanama City as the last round of negotiations before COP17 in Durban kicks off. We dostress negotiations and we do hope the Parties have come to truly negotiate and not simplydig their heels in on stated positions.

One big question is what will happen to the Kyoto Protocol, the only international agreementon climate change we have, given that the first commitment period ends next year. Commonsense would dictate that we need to keep the law we already have and build out from

there. But these are climate negotiations where good sense is not that common. A secondcommitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is essential to provide certainty to business (andthey can hardly afford more uncertainty) and keep confidence in internationalgovernance. However, we know full well that we can only avoid going above 2 degrees ofwarming if we have a deal that greatly increases the level of emission cuts and that includesall major emitters.

After the failure of the climate bill in the U.S. it is clear that the political conditions are notthere for an international deal. Weve seen this movie before and we know what to do. Theworld simply cannot afford to wait for those conditions to change in the U.S. nor should theytake their foreign policy cues from the U.S. We need to go on without them, and the US

need to both put up and shut upstop undermining other efforts to get a deal. Oneencouraging sign is that the major emitters outside of the U.S. understand the huge costs ofinaction and at the end of the day they need a multilateral solution which must go well

beyond a promise or whats calleda pledge and review process, it must be in a legallybinding form to ensure all Parties a level playing field and to ensure we achieve the neededtargetsthe earth has no wiggle room to negotiate.

The second big question is about money. The Green Climate Fund was established inCancun at COP16, but currently it is empty. We need to find the money to fill thefund. However, a hard discussion on finance is made even more difficult in the currenteconomic conditions, but fortunately there are some innovative sources being supported

even by bodies such as The World Bank and IMF who recently reported that a globalshipping levy could raise up to $26 billion/year with minimal impact on trade.

What is happening?Dropping the commitment to a 2nd period of the Kyoto protocol would defy any economic orpolitical logic. Just this week, the EU outlined conditions to agree to a supporting theProtocol. This is in the best economic and political interests of the EU whose markets and

corporations will only benefit. A proposal has come from Norway and Australia calling for anew global pact in the future has really only muddied the waters.

http://www.tcktcktck.org/http://www.tcktcktck.org/http://www.tcktcktck.org/http://www.atlapa.gob.pa/nosotros.phphttp://www.atlapa.gob.pa/nosotros.phphttp://www.tcktcktck.org/

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We need a deal now not sometime. The 2nd commitment period of the KP should be adoptedwithout reservation; however countries do need to start to discuss a process and timeline for adeal that includes all major emitters while respecting the UNFCCC principle of common butdifferentiated responsibilities. These negotiations need to begin in earnest now, here in

Panama.

Message for thedayIt is to the huge economic and political benefit for Europe to support the 2nd commitment ofthe Kyoto protocol. Other countries, particularly Australia and New Zealand among others,should also add their support which is important, not only from an international perspectivebut for their own sovereign interests.

The U.S. should heed the advice that many of us heard as children if you havent got

anything nice to say, dont say anything at all.

What you can do today?

Fill the Fund; support innovative sources of finance in particular a levy on Bunkers. Checkouthttp://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfand support the campaign to fill the fund.

If you want to update your supporters on whats going on in Bonn, check out the latest blogs

and videos the Adopt-A-Negotiator team has posted on their website

(www.adoptanegotiator.org)

Other materials:Check out CANs expectations for Durban athttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationsSummaries are available in a range of languages.

http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfhttp://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfhttp://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfhttp://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfhttp://www.adoptanegotiator.org/http://www.adoptanegotiator.org/http://www.adoptanegotiator.org/http://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://climatenetwork.org/publication/cans-durban-expectationshttp://www.adoptanegotiator.org/http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdfhttp://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bn-out-of-the-bunker-050911-en.pdf