8/9/2019 Daily Outlook 300710

1/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Calendar GMT Ctry Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

riday 0130 AU Private sector credit Jun YoY Ccy Med 3.1 2.7 AUDUSD intraday

* 0900 EU EZ unemployment rate Jul YoY C/E Med 10 10 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)

* EU EZ consumer price index est. Jul YoY C/E Med 1.7 1.4 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)

CH KOF Swiss leading indicator Jul Ccy Med 2.3 2.25 USDCHF intraday

1230 CA Gross domestic product May MoM Ccy Med 0.2 0.0 USDCAD risk barometer (2 day)

* US Gross domestic product Q2 A C/E High 2.5 2.7 Across the board (3 day)* US Personal consumption Q2 A Equ Med 2.4 3.0 S&P risk barometer (2 day)

hursday's theme: Selling on good news. Although the bias for Thursday was down, the extent of the sell-off in the US session

ame as a surprise. Earnings in Europe provided initial impetus for a push up to the high projection of 6250. At first, I was

oncerned at the early move to 6230 since my bias was down. Ultimately, growth, debt, and a cooling Chinese economy weigh

ith money managers in the process of shoring up EOM numbers. I'm sure some paring of positions ahead of the US GDP repo

ater this morning) also took place. By contrast, the euro largely held onto its gains, erasing options barriers and stops early i

ading and stubbornly sitting tight above 1.3050 as equity indices dropped. I'm not sure what followed what, but early in US

ading until mid-morning, crude appeared to support the euro and the S&P appeared to lead DAX. Going into Friday, I'll be

atching range projections and volume nodes skeptically -- trading is a bit thin, with 3 day average volume at 83% of ten day

verage volume.

ailyutlook

uly 2010

Friday, EU unemployment and US GDP are on tap. More important, however, are perceptions of growth tied to

macro themes and earnings. Thin trading means the price action will be more chaotic than usual for DAX. ("Crack

whore" comes to mind. Apologies to those of you with more refined sensibilities than I.) This the end of the first

month of Q3, so the USD could realize some flow-driven gains by tomorrow's close.

8/9/2019 Daily Outlook 300710

2/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Comments and insults are welcome. See contact info below.

ested in contributing to this letter?

t to exchange ideas? Have a suggestion?

se contact -->

Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies

http://www.thelonelytraderv2.wordpress.co

jay@lonelytrader.com

760-444-0307

Confirmation of Wednesday's bearish close. Bias still to the

downside, but the extent of today's drop surprised. With

summer comes thin markets. Something to be aware of.

Primary range: 110

Alternate range: 81

High Extreme: 6259

High primary: 6220-30

Low primary: 6050-40

Low Extreme: 6000

As always, keep in mind that range projections are

guidelines -- asking where the market will likely try to go

when long and when short, and how much friction is

involved in getting there.

DAX 30min

Today's range resistance

Today's range support

HVN

HVN

HVN

HVN

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