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GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 1

Research Department 25 September 2018

DAILY OUTLOOK GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS |

CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

GLOBAL MARKETS The S&P 500 and the Dow closed lower on Monday after a new round of U.S.-China trade

tariffs kicked in, dampening last week's hopes for talks between the two countries, and as investors awaited a widely expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

GLOBAL ECONOMIES

The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods on Monday as the world's biggest economies showed no signs of backing down from an increasingly bitter trade dispute that is expected to knock global economic growth.

The pound bounced on Monday, rising above $1.31 after a big selloff the previous session, but investors said upbeat comments from Britain's Brexit minister about a possible deal with the EU would not support the currency for long.

The recovery in inflation expected by the European Central Bank is conditional on market interest rates staying low through the summer of next year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday.

The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, holding onto recent gains, as oil prices rose and the greenback fell broadly, while domestic data showed a stronger-than-expected increase in wholesale trade.

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GLOBAL MARKETS U.S. & Global Markets – The S&P 500 and the Dow closed lower on Monday after a new round of U.S.-China trade tariffs kicked in, dampening last week's hopes for talks between the two countries, and as investors awaited a widely expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Seven of the S&P's 11 major sectors lost ground after U.S. tariffs on some $200 billion worth of Chinese goods took effect, along with Beijing's retaliatory duties. "Investors are starting to see the writing on the wall that China is starting to dig in its heels and so is the U.S," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, in Charlotte, North Carolina. "It's a general risk-off tone, a sense that people are becoming a little bit more cautious." U.S. equities made strong gains last week as investors held out hope that the United States and China would hold trade talks. But with both sides now looking entrenched in their positions, Zaccarelli said he "wouldn't be surprised if we gave up all our gains from last week." The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 181.45 points, or 0.68 percent, to 26,562.05, the S&P 500 lost 10.3 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,919.37, and the Nasdaq Composite added 6.29 points, or 0.08 percent, to 7,993.25. The industrial sector, which has borne the brunt of the protracted trade war, was one of the biggest drags on the S&P with a 1.3 percent drop. Interest rate sensitive sectors such as consumer staples, down 1.5 percent, and real estate, off 1.9 percent, were under pressure ahead of the two-day Fed meeting that begins on Tuesday and is widely expected to end with a rate hike. The biggest percentage gainer among the S&P sectors was energy as oil prices rose to a four-year high, above $80 a barrel, after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply. The technology sector closed up 0.3 percent, lifted by a 1.4 percent gain in Apple Inc, whose products have been spared from the new tariffs on China. Other gainers included the new Communications Services index, which ended its first session 0.2 percent higher. The biggest boost to the new index, which houses media and telecom stocks, was Facebook Inc, which closed up 1.5 percent. POLITICAL NOISE Investors were rattled by reports in the late morning that U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein would quit. But indexes steadied after the White House announced a Thursday meeting between Trump and Rosenstein, who oversees the special counsel's probe into Russia's role in Trump's 2016 election. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.03-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.55-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and three new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 43 new highs and 53 new lows. About 6.96 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges compared with a 6.65 billion average for the last 20 sessions. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal) GLOBAL ECONOMIES

China – The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods on Monday as the world's biggest economies showed no signs of backing down from an increasingly bitter trade dispute that is expected to knock global economic growth. Soon after the new duties went into effect, China accused the U.S. of engaging in "trade bullyism" and said it was intimidating other countries to submit to its will, the official Xinhua news agency said, reiterating China's willingness to fight if necessary. But Beijing also said it was willing to restart trade negotiations with the United States if the talks are "based on mutual respect and equality," Xinhua said, citing a white paper on the dispute published by China's State Council. U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs by Beijing on $60 billion worth of U.S. products took effect at midday Asian time, though the initial level of the duties was not as high as earlier feared. Stocks on Wall Street opened lower. Boeing, the biggest U.S. exporter to China, dropped 1 percent and Caterpillar 0.5 percent, leading the losers on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Network equipment makers Cisco and Netgear were also lower. "One of the bigger risks with these tariffs going into effect is that the United States may be pushed out of the Chinese market and it is a growing market," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 56.31 points, or 0.21 percent, to 26,687.19, the S&P 500 lost 7.51 points, or 0.26 percent, to 2,922.16 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 45.88 points, or 0.57 percent, to 7,941.08. Moody's said Monday additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports are negative for various sectors in both countries and could spread beyond targeted sectors, adding that tariffs are credit negative for U.S. furniture & home goods retailers, with more than half their imports coming from china last year. The U.S. will levy tariffs of 10 percent initially, rising to 25 percent at the end of 2018. Beijing has imposed rates of 5-10 percent and warned it would respond to any rise in U.S. tariffs on Chinese products accordingly. The two sides had already slapped tariffs on $50 billion worth of each other's goods. For U.S. consumers, the new duties could translate into higher prices for Chinese products ranging from vacuum cleaners to technology gear such as home modems and routers, while U.S. goods targeted by Beijing include liquefied natural gas and certain types of aircraft. President Donald Trump is pressing China to reduce its huge bilateral trade surplus and make sweeping changes to its policies on trade, technology transfers and high-tech industrial subsidies. Beijing has denied that U.S. firms are forced to transfer technology and sees Washington's demands on rolling back its industrial policies as an attempt to contain China's economic rise. The U.S. administration "has brazenly preached unilateralism, protectionism and economic hegemony, making false accusations against many countries and regions, particularly China, intimidating other countries through economic measures such as imposing tariffs," Xinhua quoted the State Council's white paper as saying. "NO END IN SIGHT FOR TRADE WAR" Several rounds of Sino-U.S. trade talks in recent months have yielded no major breakthroughs and attempts at arranging another

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES



meeting in coming weeks have fallen through. A senior White House official said last week the U.S. will continue to engage China, but added there was no date for further talks. China, which has accused Washington of being insincere in the negotiations, has decided not to send Vice Premier Liu He to Washington this week, The Wall Street Journal reported late last week. News of Beijing's decision to skip the talks pushed China's yuan currency down 0.3 percent on Monday in offshore trade, reinforcing investors' fears that both sides are digging in for a long fight. Mainland China markets were closed for a holiday. Economists warn that a protracted dispute will eventually stunt growth across the globe. Companies on both sides of the Pacific are already reporting disruptions to their operations and are reviewing investment plans. The trade tensions have also cast a pall over broader relations between Beijing and Washington, with the two sides butting heads on a growing number of issues. China summoned the U.S. ambassador in Beijing and postponed military talks in protest against a U.S. decision to sanction a Chinese military agency and its director for buying Russian fighter jets and a missile system. Rob Carnell, ING's chief Asia economist, said in a note to clients that in the absence of any incentives Beijing would likely hold off on any further negotiations for now. "It would look weak both to the U.S. and at home," he said, adding that there is "sufficient stimulus in the pipeline" to limit the damage of the latest tariffs on China's economy. "The U.S.-China trade war has no clear end in sight." China may also be waiting for U.S. mid-term elections early next month for any hints of changes in Washington's policy stance, Carnell added. "With generic polls favouring the Democrats, they may feel that the trade environment will be less hostile after November 6." Bloomberg reported that the China Daily, Beijing's official English newspaper, paid for a four-page advertising supplement on Sunday in the Des Moines Register - the largest newspaper in the politically important state of Iowa - that highlighted the impact of the trade war on soybean farmers. Trump earlier this month accused China of targeting rural voters who support his presidency by hitting agricultural goods. Beijing has repeatedly denied the charge. WASHINGTON READYING MORE MEASURES Trump on Saturday reiterated a threat to impose further tariffs on Chinese goods should Beijing retaliate, suggesting that Washington may slap tariffs on virtually all imported Chinese goods if the administration does not get its way. China imports far less from the United States, making a dollar-for-dollar match on any new U.S. tariffs impossible. Instead, it has warned of "qualitative" measures to retaliate. Though Beijing has not revealed what such steps might be, business executives and analysts say it could withhold exports of certain products to the U.S. or create more administrative red tape for American companies operating in China. Some analysts say there is also a risk that China could allow its currency to weaken again to cushion the blow to its exporters. UK – The pound bounced on Monday, rising above $1.31 after a big selloff the previous session, but investors said upbeat comments from Britain's Brexit minister about a possible deal with the EU would not support the currency for long.

Sterling tumbled two cents against the dollar on Friday, its biggest daily drop this year, after Prime Minister Theresa May said Brexit talks had reached an impasse. On Monday, the pound recouped 0.7 percent to reach $1.3167 and gained 0.3 percent against the euro to 89.37 pence as some of the short positions on the pound were unwound. Brexit minister Dominic Raab said he was confident Britain would eventually clinch a deal with the European Union. But those comments were unlikely to support the currency for long, analysts said, with May's leadership under increasing pressure ahead of her Conservatives' annual conference this week. "An aggressive stance from the EU... and the subsequent backlash from Theresa May increases the probability that a confrontation builds through the ...conference," Deutsche Bank currency strategist George Saravelos wrote in a note to clients. Friday's selloff was a brutal reminder for investors of the currency's vulnerability to Brexit headlines. The pound fell to as low as $1.3053 and month implied volatility - a measure of expected price swings - jumped to its highest since February, in its biggest daily rise since January. "An imminent agreement in the Brexit negotiations cannot be expected," said Esther Maria Reichelt, an FX strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "Under that assumption, the current levels on the options market still provide good opportunities for hedging against further exchange rate turbulence." Britain's opposition Labour Party will vote this week on whether to keep a second Brexit referendum as an option if Theresa May fails to get her plan for quitting the EU through parliament. That places further pressure on May though it is unclear what impact the prospect of a second referendum would have on sterling. "We doubt this option will impact the pound. A lot of dire developments would probably have to take place first before a second referendum happens," said analysts at MUFG. Many investors still expect Brussels and London to reach agreement. Both have much to lose if Britain were to crash out of the EU next March without a trade arrangement in place. But investors have been hastily hedging against more weakness in sterling should the negotiations with the EU collapse. Eurozone – The recovery in inflation expected by the European Central Bank is conditional on market interest rates staying low through the summer of next year, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Monday. Draghi described an acceleration in underlying inflation in the euro zone as "relatively vigorous" and expressed confidence that a pick-up in wage growth would continue. But he reaffirmed the ECB's pledge to keep rates at their current, rock-bottom level "through the summer" of next year, implicitly rebuffing calls from some policymakers to tighten policy more quickly. "The path of inflation that the Governing Council viewed as moving closer to the objective of a sustained adjustment was -- and still is -- conditional on a term structure of interest rates that embodies expectations of constant policy rates over an extended period of time after December 2018," Draghi told the European Parliament. The ECB's message on rates has been subject to different interpretations by investors and even policymakers, some of whom rule out a hike until the autumn of 2019 while others see scope for a rate increase in the summer.



Austria's central bank governor Ewald Nowotny said in an interview published on Sunday he would welcome moving the ECB's deposit rate towards -0.2 percent from -0.4 percent now. Money market investors beefed up their bets on a rate hike in October 2019 after Draghi's words, while the euro and bond yields rose. Benoit Coeure and Peter Praet, two influential members of the ECB's Executive Board, said last week the central bank would need to start clarifying next year the likely path of its interest rates beyond its first hike. PROTECTIONISM AND BREXIT Draghi said an increasingly bitter trade dispute between the United States and China was probably affecting confidence and would have a big impact on the euro zone if the protectionist measures that have been announced are implemented. The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods on Monday and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated a threat to impose further tariffs on Chinese goods should Beijing retaliate. "For the time being, we don't know what the final size of all this will be, but we know it's going to be big and we should do our best to be prepared," Draghi said. He sounded more sanguine on the consequences of a hard Brexit -- political jargon for a divorce between Britain and the European Union without an agreement on their future relationship. But he singled out the clearing of financial contracts -- which include trillions of euros worth of derivatives based on the single currency but processed in London -- as an area of concern. "If there is a sudden event, (an) unprepared hard Brexit of the sharpest kind, we have to see how the many contractual positions are going to be regulated after that," Draghi said. Canada – The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, holding onto recent gains, as oil prices rose and the greenback fell broadly, while domestic data showed a stronger-than-expected increase in wholesale trade.

Canadian wholesale trade rose 1.5 percent in July from June, a bigger increase than the 0.5 percent gain expected by analysts, data from Statistics Canada showed. Sales volumes rose 1.2 percent, which could help boost gross domestic product for the month. Data for July gross domestic product is due on Friday. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, climbed after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply. U.S. crude prices were up 1.9 percent at $72.14 a barrel. The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of other currencies ahead of a widely expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. At 9:51 a.m. (1351 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.2915 to the greenback, or 77.43 U.S. cents. The currency, which has strengthened by 1.9 percent over the last two weeks, traded in a range of 1.2911 to 1.2949. The steady performance of the loonie on Monday occurred despite the latest round of U.S.-Chinese tariffs taking effect, with neither country showing signs of backing down from a protracted trade war. Canada runs a current account deficit, so its economy could be hurt if the global flow of trade or capital slows. The country has its own trade dispute with the United States and is in talks to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. and Canadian officials are "very likely" to hold informal talks on NAFTA on the sidelines of a major U.N. meeting in the next few days, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Sunday. Speculators have raised bearish bets on the Canadian dollar for the third straight week, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Reuters calculations showed on Friday. As of Sept. 18, net short positions had increased to 30,111 contracts from 26,942 a week earlier. Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the 10-year falling 14 Canadian cents to yield 2.447 percent. The 10-year yield touched 2.459 percent, the highest since May 22. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)



ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL EST. PREV. REV.

Mon/24-Sep-18 15:00 DE IFO Business Climate Sep 103.7 103.2 103.8 15:00 DE IFO Current Assessment Sep 106.4 106.0 106.4 15:00 DE IFO Expectations Sep 101.0 100.5 101.2

17:00 GB CBI Trends Selling Prices Sep 13 -- 15 17:00 GB CBI Trends Total Orders Sep -1 4 7 19:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug 0.18 0.2 0.13 0.18

20:00 EZ ECB's Draghi Speaks at ECON Committee Meeting in Brussels 21:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep 28.1 31 30.9

N/A CN Bank Holiday N/A JP Bank Holiday

Tue/25-Sep-18 06:50 JP BOJ Minutes of Policy Meeting 06:50 JP PPI Services YoY Aug -- 1.1%

12:00 JP Coincident Index Jul F -- 116.3 12:00 JP Leading Index CI Jul F -- 103.5

12:30 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks in Osaka 15:10 EZ ECB's Praet Speaks at FT Event in London 15:40 GB BOE's Vlieghe speaks in London.

17:45 EZ ECB's Praet Speaks at OMFIF in London 20:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM Jul 0.2% 0.2% 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Jul -0.2% 0.11%

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Jul -- 213.07 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Jul -- 6.31%

20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index Jul -- 204.48 20:00 US S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA Jul -- 6.24% 21:00 US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Sep 131 133.4

21:00 US Conf. Board Expectations Sep -- 107.6 21:00 US Conf. Board Present Situation Sep -- 172.2 21:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep 21 24 21:40 EZ ECB's Coeure Chairs Session at 3rd ECB Annual Research Confere

Wed/26-Sep-18 05:45 NZ Exports NZD Aug -- 5.35b 05:45 NZ Imports NZD Aug -- 5.49b 05:45 NZ Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD NZD Aug -- -4441m

05:45 NZ Trade Balance NZD Aug -- -143m 08:00 NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Sep -- 3.8

08:00 NZ ANZ Business Confidence Sep -- -50.3 13:00 JP Machine Tool Orders YoY Aug F -- 5.3% 15:00 CH Credit Suisse Survey Expectations Sep -- -14.3

15:30 GB UK Finance Loans for Housing Aug -- 39584 17:00 GB CBI Retailing Reported Sales Sep -- 29

17:00 GB CBI Total Dist. Reported Sales Sep -- 24 21:00 US New Home Sales Aug 631k 627k 21:00 US New Home Sales MoM Aug 0.8% -1.7%

21:30 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Sep-21 -- -1250k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Sep-21 -- -2057k 21:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Sep-21 -- 839k

21:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Sep-21 -- -1719k

Thu/27-Sep-18 01:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) Sep-26 2.00% 1.75% 01:00 US FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) Sep-26 2.25% 2.00% 01:30 US Fed's Powell Holds Press Conference Following FOMC Decision

04:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate Sep-27 1.75% 1.75% 08:30 CN Industrial Profits YoY Aug -- 16.2%

08:30 AU Job vacancies Aug -- 5.7% 13:00 DE GfK Consumer Confidence Oct -- 10.5 13:35 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo

15:00 EZ ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin 16:00 EZ Business Climate Indicator Sep -- 1.22 16:00 EZ Consumer Confidence Sep F -- --

16:00 EZ Economic Confidence Sep -- 111.6 16:00 EZ Industrial Confidence Sep -- 5.5

16:00 EZ Services Confidence Sep -- 14.7 17:00 CA CFIB Business Barometer Sep -- 61.6 18:45 GB BOE's Haldane speaks in London.

27-Sep - 03-Oct N/A DE Retail Sales MoM Aug -- -0.4% 27-Sep - 03-Oct N/A DE Retail Sales YoY Aug -- 0.8% 19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized MoM Sep P -- 0.0%

19:00 DE CPI EU Harmonized YoY Sep P -- 1.9% 19:00 DE CPI MoM Sep P -- 0.1%



Source: Bloomberg-Reuters-Forexfactory-DailyFX-Tradingeconomics-FXStreet, Research: @LukmanLoeng, Setiawan, Rizal

19:00 DE CPI YoY Sep P -- 2.0% 19:30 US Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug -$70.5b -$72.2b

19:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.3% 1.6% 19:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug P -- 1.0%

19:30 US Continuing Claims Sep-15 -- -- 19:30 US Core PCE QoQ 2Q T -- 2.0% 19:30 US Durable Goods Orders Aug P 1.7% -1.7%

19:30 US Durables Ex Transportation Aug P 0.4% 0.1% 19:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 4.3% 4.2% 19:30 US GDP Price Index 2Q T 3.0% 3.0%

19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-22 -- -- 19:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q T -- 3.8%

19:30 US Retail Inventories MoM Aug -- 0.4% 19:30 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug P -- 0.6% 21:00 GB BOE's Carney chairs panel in Frankfurt.

21:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Aug -0.4% -0.7% 21:00 US Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Aug -- -0.5% 22:00 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep -- 14

23:30 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks at Forum for Minority Banking

Fri/28-Sep-18 00:05 EZ ECB's Praet Speaks at King's College London 04:00 KR Consumer Confidence Sep -- 99.2

04:45 CA Poloz Speech in New Brunswick 05:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 117.6 05:00 NZ ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM Sep -- -0.7%

06:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Sep -- -7 06:01 GB Lloyds Business Barometer Sep -- 23

06:30 JP Jobless Rate Aug -- 2.5% 06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Aug -- 1.63 06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions

06:50 JP Industrial Production MoM Aug P -- -0.1% 06:50 JP Industrial Production YoY Aug P -- 2.2% 06:50 JP Retail Sales MoM Aug -- 0.1%

06:50 JP Retail Trade YoY Aug -- 1.5% 08:30 AU Private Sector Credit MoM Aug -- 0.4%

08:30 AU Private Sector Credit YoY Aug -- 4.4% N/A CN BoP Current Account Balance 2Q F -- $5.8b 08:45 CN Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep -- 50.6

12:00 JP Construction Orders YoY Aug -- -9.3% 14:00 CH KOF Leading Indicator Sep -- 100.3 14:55 DE Unemployment Change (000's) Sep -- -8k

14:55 DE Unemployment Claims Rate SA Sep -- 5.2% 28-Sep - 03-Oct N/A GB Nationwide House PX MoM Sep -- -0.5%

28-Sep - 03-Oct N/A GB Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Sep -- 2.0% 15:30 GB Current Account Balance 2Q -- -17.7b 15:30 GB GDP QoQ 2Q F -- 0.4%

15:30 GB GDP YoY 2Q F -- 1.3% 15:30 GB Total Business Investment QoQ 2Q F -- 0.5% 15:30 GB Total Business Investment YoY 2Q F -- 0.8%

16:00 EZ CPI Core YoY Sep A -- 1.0% 16:00 EZ CPI Estimate YoY Sep -- 2.0%

19:30 US Fed's Barkin Speaks at Forum for Minorities in Banking 19:30 CA GDP MoM Jul -- 0.0% 19:30 CA GDP YoY Jul -- 2.4%

19:30 CA Industrial Product Price MoM Aug -- -0.2% 19:30 US PCE Core MoM Aug 0.1% 0.2%

19:30 US PCE Core YoY Aug -- 2.0% 19:30 US PCE Deflator MoM Aug 0.1% 0.1% 19:30 US PCE Deflator YoY Aug -- 2.3%

19:30 US Personal Income Aug 0.4% 0.3% 19:30 US Personal Spending Aug 0.3% 0.4% 19:30 US Real Personal Spending Aug -- 0.2%

20:20 GB BOE's Ramsden speaks in London. 20:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep 62 63.6

21:00 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Sep F -- 2.8% 21:00 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Sep F -- 2.4% 21:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Sep F -- 116.1

21:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Sep F -- 91.1 21:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F 100 100.8

Sat/29-Sep-18 00:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Sep-28 -- -- 03:45 US Fed's Williams Speaks in NY at Money Markets Conference



Japanese stocks is closed for a Holiday. South Korea's KOSPI stock index is closed for a Holiday (Chuseok Day). Hong Kong's main Hang Seng index ended weaker on Monday led by a decline in Chinese property stocks, snapping a four-session winning streak. Chinese stock markets were shut for a holiday, while China's H-shares index also closed lower. At close of trade, the Hang Seng index was down 454.19 points or 1.62 percent at 27,499.39, the biggest daily percentage decline since Sept. 5. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index fell 1.8 percent to 10,827.52. Hong Kong financial markets will close for Mid-Autumn Festival holiday on Tuesday. Trade resumes normal on Wednesday. Participants await the next move in an escalating trade fight as China added $60 billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list, retaliating against U.S. duties on $200 billion of Chinese goods that come into effect on Monday. The sub-index of the Hang Seng tracking energy shares . dipped 0.7 percent, while the IT sector dipped 1.8 percent, the financial sector was 1.5 percent lower and property sector dipped 2.2 percent. The top gainer on Hang Seng was CNOOC Ltd, up 0.6 percent, while the biggest loser was Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd, which was down 5.6 percent. Hong Kong-listed Chinese property developers slid after six provinces have been told to reconsider the property pre-sale system.

The top gainers among H-shares were CNOOC Ltd, gaining 0.6 percent, followed by Guangdong Investment Ltd, which edged up 0.2 percent. The three biggest H-shares percentage decliners were Great Wall Motor Co Ltd, which was down 5.1 percent, China Resources Land, which slid 4.8 pct, and Air China Ltd, which fell 4.6 percent. About 1.56 billion Hang Seng index shares were traded, roughly 84.5 percent of the market's 30-day moving average of 1.84 billion shares a day. The volume traded in the previous trading session was 2.86 billion. China's stock markets is closed for a Holiday. (Source:Reuters,Research:rizal)

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2018

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87

(29/Dec/89) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 33154.12

(26/Jan/2018) 26616.71

(26/Jan/2018) 2914.04

(29/Aug/2018) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07)

2017 HIGH 23439.15

(13/Nov/2017) 339.59

(02/Nov/2017) 30199.69

(22/Nov/2017) 24876.07

(18/Dec/2017) 2694.97

(18/Dec/2017) 3450.49490

(14/Nov/2017)

2018 HIGH 24129.34

(23/Jan/2018) 338.05

(29/Jan/2018) 33484.08

(29/Jan/2018) 26743.50

(21/Sep/2018) 2930.83

(20/Sep/2018) 3587.50890

(29/Jan/2018)

2018 LOW 20617.86

(23/Mar/2018) 288.24

(16/Aug/2018) 26345.04

(12/Sep/2018) 23360.29

(08/Feb/2018) 2532.69

(08/Feb/2018) 2651.79070

(17/Sep/2018)

2017 LOW 18224.68

(17/Apr/2017) 258.64

(02/Jan/2017) 21883.82

(03/Jan/2017) 19677.94

(19/Jan/2017) 2245.13

(03/Jan/2017) 3016.53050

(11/May/2017)

RECORD LOW 85.25

(06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61

(31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55) 132.93

(23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 24 September 2018

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 26562.05 181.45/0.68% .N225 HOLIDAY 195.00/0.82%

/.SPX 2919.53 10.14/0.35% .KS200 HOLIDAY 1.77/0.59%

/.IXIC 7993.248 6.293/0.08% .HSI 27499.39 454.19/1.62%

JPY= 112.79 0.23/0.20% /.SSEC HOLIDAY 68.24130/2.50%

KRW= 1119.12 5.17/0.46% /CLc1 (Oil) 72.27 1.56/2.21%

ASIAN STOCK INDEX

reuters://REALTIME/Verb=FullQuote/ric=.HSCIE



1YMZ8(Dow Jones Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 21 December 2018

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

24 Sep 26709 26739 26577 162 26622 26622 132 0.49 147282

21 Sep 26714 26820 26712 108 26746 26746 19 0.07 145572

20 Sep (1YMZ8) 26486 26745 26457 288 26740 26740 278 1.05 162758

20 Sep (1YMU8) 26448 26717 26430 287 26717 26717 283 1.07 35364

19 Sep (1YMZ8) 26322 26504 26265 239 26475 26475 174 0.66 163698

19 Sep (1YMU8) 26290 26477 26237 240 26446 26446 172 0.65 54158

18 Sep 26068 26331 25966 365 26293 26293 217 0.83 58752

WEEKLY SEPTEMBER AUGUST 2018

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

26739 26577 26820 25764 26185 24955 26820 23088

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (11/Sep) (29/Aug) (15/Aug) (21/Sep) (06/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

27460 Fibo.Projections on D-Chart (261.8%)



26739 High 24 Sep 2018

SUPPORT

26430 Low Sep 20,2018

26238 Low Sep 19,2018

26078 Low Sep 14,2018

25980 Low Sep 13,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 26650

STOP LOSS 26775

TARGET 26450

26350

Daily 1YMc1 31/01/2018 - 05/10/2018 (JAK)

26684

23088

23467

23978

24955

26185

EMA; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

24/09/2018; 26.181

WMA; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

24/09/2018; 25.891

Cndl; 1YMc1; Trade Price

24/09/2018; 26.696; 26.739; 26.577; 26.623

Price

USD

Auto

23.100

23.400

23.700

24.000

24.300

24.600

24.900

25.200

25.500

25.800

26.100

26.400

26.700

RSI; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

24/09/2018; 71,425Value

USD

Auto

40

Mom; 1YMc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

24/09/2018; 638

Value

USD

Auto

-1.000

0

05 12 20 26 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 29 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 10 17 24 01

Februari 2018 Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



SSIamZ8 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 17 Dec 2018

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % VOLUME

24 Sep SSIpmZ8 23610 23710 23610 100 23700 --- 85 0.36 11499

24 Sep SSIamZ8 23675 23705 23585 120 23615 23615 115 0.48 5961

21 Sep SSIpmZ8 23745 23810 23700 110 23710 --- 20 0.08 21228

21 Sep SSIamZ8 23690 23820 23610 210 23730 23730 265 1.13 55795

20 Sep SSIpmZ8 23475 23705 23475 230 23700 --- 235 1.00 22660

20 Sep SSIamZ8 23585 23630 23420 210 23465 23465 70 0.30 50450

19 Sep SSIpmZ8 23530 23640 23520 120 23580 --- 45 0.19 18995

19 Sep SSIamZ8 23650 23690 23500 190 23535 23535 240 1.03 54250

18 Sep SSIpmZ8 23300 23720 23240 480 23650 --- 355 1.52 32731

18 Sep SSIamZ8 22920 23315 22875 440 23295 23295 190 0.82 77164



23710 22585 23820 22165 23070 21825 24170 20130

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (07/Sep) (30/Aug) (13/Aug) (23/Jan) (23/Mar)


RESISTANCE

24233 Fibo.Projections on D-Chart ( 50.0% )

24170 High Jan 24,2018

23960 High Jan 25,2018

23780 High Jan 29,2018

SUPPORT

23640 Low on 1-Hourly Chart




RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 23730

STOP LOSS 23830

TARGET 23580

23480



KSZ8 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 13 Dec 2018


CHANGE VOLUME

24 Sep -- H O L I D A Y --

21 Sep 300.45 301.15 299.40 1.75 301.00 301.00 1.35 0.45 198541

20 Sep 297.75 300.85 297.35 3.50 299.65 299.65 2.60 0.88 231247

19 Sep 297.90 297.95 295.75 2.20 297.05 297.05 0.20 0.07 177945

18 Sep 293.65 296.95 293.20 3.75 296.85 296.85 1.60 0.54 215765

17 Sep 297.00 297.10 294.55 2.55 295.25 295.25 2.80 0.94 148483



301.15 293.20 301.15 290.75 300.35 285.95 340.30 285.95

(21/Sep) (18/Sep) (21/Sep) (07/Sep) (01/Aug) (16/Aug) (29/Jan) (16/Aug)


RESISTANCE

305.65 High Jun 20,2018

304.85 High Jun 21,2018

303.85 High Jun 27,2018

301.60 High Jun 28,2018

SUPPORT

299.40 Low Sep 21,2018

298.40 Low on 1-Hourly Chart



RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 301.30

STOP LOSS 302.30

TARGET 299.30

298.30

Daily KSc1 08/05/2018 - 01/10/2018 (JAK)

231.45

284.60

289.30

238.55

276.25

261.25

266.35

216.90

237.80

223.10

229

224

234

254.45

241.35

235.65

248.75

307.55

339.95

302.70

318.70

340.30

302.10

308.70

323.45

284.60

289.30

231.45

238.55

276.25

266.35

216.90

223.10

261.25

224

229

235.65

248.75

241.35

234

237.80

254.45

302.70

340.30339.95

302.10

308.70

323.45

299.95

318.70

284.60

289.30

231.45

238.55

276.25

266.35

216.90

223.10

261.25

224

229

235.65

248.75

241.35

234

237.80

254.45

302.70

340.30339.95

302.10

325.50

308.70

323.45

303.85

318.70

290.20

293.35

285.95

294.40

Cndl; KSc1; Trade Price

21/09/2018; 300,45; 301,15; 299,40; 301,00

EMA; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

21/09/2018; 296,27

WMA; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

21/09/2018; 295,62

Price

KRW

Auto

282

285

288

291

294

297

300

303

306

309

312

315

318

321

324

RSI; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

21/09/2018; 70,170 Value

KRW

Auto

Mom; KSc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

21/09/2018; 3,55

Value

KRW

Auto

-20

-10

08 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 25 01

Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



HSIU8 (Hang Seng Sep Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 September 2018


CHANGE VOLUME

24 Sep (HSIV8) 27823 27823 27399 424 27475 27475 471 1.69 55348

24 Sep (HSIU8) 27798 27798 27388 410 27437 27437 503 1.80 192251

21 Sep 27650 27982 27512 470 27940 27940 481 1.75 282994

20 Sep 27560 27625 27294 331 27459 27459 48 0.18 215712

19 Sep 27219 27494 27060 434 27411 27411 370 1.37 240228

18 Sep 26710 27169 26605 564 27041 27041 150 0.56 275784

17 Sep 26900 27032 26711 321 26891 26891 364 1.34 225060



27823 27388 27982 26170 28720 26790 33516 26170

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (12/Sep) (01/Aug) (16/Aug) (29/Jan) (12/Sep)


RESISTANCE

27918 High on 1-Hourly Chart




SUPPORT

27388 Low on 1 Hourly Chart

27294 Low Sep 20,2018



RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 27480

STOP LOSS 27630

TARGET 27280

27180

Daily HSIc1 17/04/2018 - 05/10/2018 (JAK)

17856

23614

24485

24946

23985

23538

28621

27371

21488

25620

21051

19394

21664

19400

18037

21195

18850

20278

22321

31544

29113

26805

25110

27444

28574

28149

33516

29860

28012

26642

32005

27100

Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price

26/09/2018; 27.460; 27.533; 27.393; 27.446

EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20

26/09/2018; 27.365

WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55

26/09/2018; 27.546

Price

HKD

Auto

26.000

26.400

26.800

27.200

27.600

28.000

28.400

28.800

29.200

29.600

30.000

30.400

30.800

31.200

31.600

RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

26/09/2018; 53,218 Value

HKD

Auto

30

60

Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14

26/09/2018; 341

Value

HKD

Auto

-2.000

23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 19 25 03 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 02

April 2018 Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



Euro climbs to more than 3-month high on Draghi's comments - Reuters News

The euro rose to a more than a three-month high against the dollar on Monday after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said he sees a vigorous pickup in euro zone inflation, backing moves toward unwinding an ECB asset purchase program meant to stimulate the economy. The single currency has been on an uptrend the last few weeks, bolstered by generally solid European economic data.

Over the last 10 days, the euro has risen 2.5 percent versus the greenback. The dollar drifted higher against the yen as investors looked for fresh cues to extend a multi-month rally in the greenback before a widely expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week. The dollar briefly slipped against the yen after some media said U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was headed to the White House amid reports he had offered to resign in anticipation of being fired by President Donald Trump. Rosenstein, who oversees the special counsel investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, will meet with Trump on Thursday to discuss whether Rosenstein will stay in his job. "There was a pretty material response to Draghi and that was compounded by the political developments in Washington with respect to the deputy attorney general," said Eric Theoret, currency strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "But after all that action, we're back to where we were before Draghi's comments and the Rosenstein news and we're sort of waiting here for the Fed decision this week," he added. Draghi on Monday described an acceleration in underlying euro zone inflation as "relatively vigorous" and expressed confidence a pickup in wage growth would continue, lifting the euro. But he reaffirmed the ECB's pledge to keep rates at their rock-bottom level through the summer of next year. In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.1755. It rose as high as $1.1815, a 3-1/2-month peak. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.1 percent at 112.65 yen. The market is forecasting a Fed rate hike this week, another in December and two to three more next year, which is roughly in line with Fed policymakers' own projections. Analysts said only unexpectedly strong data would change those market bets. Natwest Market analysts believe a large majority at the Fed will see another rate hike in December as appropriate. In 2019, most will favor three hikes, followed by just one in 2020, they added. Earlier, the dollar snapped a two-week losing streak as the weekend brought global trade tensions back into the spotlight after Beijing released a white paper on its trade dispute with the United States, saying it would seek a reasonable outcome, while also describing U.S. tactics as "bullying." The dollar index was last little changed at 94.192. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal).

FOREX/CURRENCIES



EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/ 1.75%-2.00% (US)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Sep 24 1.17450 1.18139 1.17229 91,0 1.17469 1,2 1.17481

Sep 21 1.17755 1.18016 1.17315 70,1 1.17481 27,4 1.17755

Sep 20 1.16710 1.17833 1.16679 115,4 1.17755 104,1 1.16714

Sep 19 1.16699 1.17137 1.16489 64,8 1.16714 8,8 1.16626

Sep 18 1.16840 1.17232 1.16511 72,1 1.16626 18,7 1.16813



1.18139 1.17229 1.18139 1.15252 1.17323 1.12997 1.25542 1.12997

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (24/Sep) (10/Sep) (28/Aug) (15/Aug) (16/Feb) (15/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1.1996 High May 14,2018

1.1938 High May 15,2018

1.1851 High Jun 14,2018

1.1815 HIgh Sep 24,2018

SUPPORT


1.1664 Low Sep 20,2018

1.1616 Reactions Low on D-Chart (Sep 14,2018)

1.1568 Low Sep 12,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 1.1760

STOP LOSS 1.1810

TARGET 1.1690

1.1660

Daily EUR= 08/03/2018 - 04/10/2018 (JAK)

1.1507

1.1297

1.1297

1.15027

1.4511

1.4281

1.3139

1.2584

1.3333

1.2149

1.4197

1.2826

1.1875

1.3691

1.3817

1.2871

1.3265

1.3093

1.4296

1.4084

1.2642

1.4548

1.3243

1.2520

1.3283

1.4881

1.3548

1.4247

1.3486

1.3169

1.3385

1.2569

1.3330

1.3711

1.2660

1.3432

1.2878

1.0456

1.3295

1.14951.1466

1.3515

1.2885

1.2599

1.0538

1.2600

1.0460

1.1500

1.1158

1.1711

1.0709

1.1375

1.0777

1.1365

1.1121

1.0959

1.2092

1.1552

1.2245

1.1733

1.1790

1.2139

1.2413

1.2555

1.2476

1.1506

1.1996

EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20

24/09/2018; 1,1659

WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55

24/09/2018; 1,1616

Cndl; EUR=; Bid

24/09/2018; 1,1749; 1,1815; 1,1721; 1,1755

Price

USD

Auto

1,15

1,155

1,16

1,165

1,17

1,175

1,18

1,185

1,19

1,195

1,2

1,205

1,21

1,215

1,22

Price

USD

Auto

1,125

1,13

1,135

1,14

1,145

1,15

1,155

1,16

1,165

1,17

1,175

1,18

1,185

1,19

1,195

1,2

1,205

1,21

1,215

1,22

1,225

1,23

1,235

1,24

RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

24/09/2018; 65,666

Value

USD

Auto

30

60

Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14

24/09/2018; 0,0174

Value

USD

Auto

-0,03

12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01

Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



USD/JPY Interest Rate: 1.75%-2.00% (US)/-0.1% (JP)


Sep 24 112.532 112.827 112.420 40,7 112.789 25,0 112.539

Sep 21 112.467 112.862 112.414 44,8 112.539 6,7 112.472

Sep 20 112.249 112.572 112.030 54,2 112.472 21,9 112.253

Sep 19 112.351 112.435 112.149 28,6 112.253 8,9 112.342

Sep 18 111.833 112.377 111.652 72,5 112.342 52,0 111.822



112.827 112.420 112.862 110.367 112.139 109.762 113.376 104.623

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (07/Sep) (01/Aug) (21/Aug) (08/Jan) (23/Mar)


RESISTANCE

115.19 High Mar 03,2017

114.72 High Nov 06,2017

114.33 Reactions High on D-Chart (Nov 07,2017)

113.74 High Dec 12,2017

SUPPORT

112.40 Low Sep 21,2018

112.01 Low Sep 20,2018

111.74 Low Sep 14,2018

111.14 Low Sep 13,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 112.90

STOP LOSS 113.40

TARGET 112.20

111.90



GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.75% (GB)/1.75%-2.00% (US)


Sep 24 1.31342 1.31658 1.30617 104,1 1.31168 36,5 1.30803

Sep 21 1.32690 1.32755 1.30532 222,3 1.30803 179,2 1.32595

Sep 20 1.31404 1.32970 1.31340 163,0 1.32595 122,5 1.31370

Sep 19 1.31461 1.32135 1.30970 116,5 1.31370 9,1 1.31461

Sep 18 1.31544 1.31709 1.31175 53,4 1.31461 2,3 1.31484



1.31658 1.30617 1.32970 1.27842 1.31432 1.26605 1.43754 1.26605

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (20/Sep) (05/Sep) (01/Aug) (15/Aug) (17/Apr) (15/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1.3368 High Jul 09,2018

1.3300 High Jul 10,2018

1.3239 High Jul 13,2018

1.3159 High Jul 24,2018

SUPPORT

1.3024 Low Sep 13,2018

1.2978 Low Sep 12,2018

1.2895 Low Sep 10,2018

1.2783 Low Sep 05,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 1.3135

STOP LOSS 1.3205

TARGET 1.3045

1.3005



USD/CHF Interest Rate: 1.75%-2.00% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)


Sep 24 0.95819 0.96490 0.95785 70,5 0.96277 39,7 0.95880

Sep 21 0.95874 0.95970 0.95409 56,1 0.95880 3,6 0.95844

Sep 20 0.96657 0.96765 0.95842 92,3 0.95844 85,0 0.96694

Sep 19 0.96394 0.96992 0.96333 65,9 0.96694 26,0 0.96434

Sep 18 0.96221 0.96547 0.95988 55,9 0.96434 20,9 0.96225



0.96490 0.95785 0.97660 0.95409 0.99836 0.96508 1.00668 0.91863

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (04/Sep) (21/Sep) (06/Aug) (31/Aug) (13/Jul) (16/Feb)


RESISTANCE

0.9809 High Aug 28,2018

0.9776 High Aug 29,2018

0.9708 High Sep 13,2018

0.9656 High Sep 18,2018

SUPPORT

0.9597 Low Sep 19,2018

0.9533 Low Apr 10,2018

0.9458 Low Mar 28,2018

0.9421 Low Mar 14,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.9630

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 0.9580

TARGET 0.9700

0.9730



AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/ 1.75%-2.00% (US)


Sep 24 0.72693 0.72803 0.72496 30,7 0.72496 33,6 0.72832

Sep 21 0.72895 0.73026 0.72616 41,0 0.72832 6,4 0.72896

Sep 20 0.72621 0.72916 0.72527 38,9 0.72896 30,4 0.72592

Sep 19 0.72219 0.72738 0.72122 61,6 0.72592 44,1 0.72151

Sep 18 0.71773 0.72224 0.71429 79,5 0.72151 40,1 0.71750



0.72803 0.72496 0.73026 0.70839 0.74385 0.71747 0.81346 0.70839



RESISTANCE

0.7484 High Jul 10, 2018

0.7453 High Aug 09, 2018

0.7381 High Aug 21, 2018

0.7314 High Aug 30, 2018

SUPPORT

0.7210 Low Sep 19,2018

0.7164 Low Sep 13,2018

0.7114 Low on 1 Hourly Chart (Aug 12,2018)

0.7065 Low Feb 19, 2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 0.7260

STOP LOSS 0.7310

TARGET 0.7190

0.7160



NZD/USD Interest Rate: 1.75% (NZ)/1.75%-2.00% (US)


Sep 24 0.66734 0.66872 0.66389 48,3 0.66389 37,9 0.66768

Sep 21 0.66849 0.66979 0.66663 31,6 0.66768 5,5 0.66823

Sep 20 0.66039 0.66920 0.66000 92,0 0.66823 72,2 0.66101

Sep 19 0.65866 0.66214 0.65716 49,8 0.66101 31,2 0.65789

Sep 18 0.65852 0.66066 0.65604 46,2 0.65789 12,8 0.65661



0.66872 0.66389 0.66979 0.64998 0.68187 0.65432 0.74359 0.64998

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (11/Sep) (01/Aug) (15/Aug) (16/Feb) (11/Sep)


RESISTANCE

0.6859 High Jun 27,2018

0.6819 High Aug 01, 2018

0.6761 High Aug 08, 2018

0.6700 High Aug 21, 2018

SUPPORT

0.6599 Low Sep 20,2018

0.6571 Low Sep 19,2018

0.6536 Low Sep 17,2018

0.6499 Low Sep 11,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 0.6660

STOP LOSS 0.6710

TARGET 0.6590

0.6560

Daily NZD= 05/04/2018 - 03/10/2018 (JAK)

0.8514

0.7974

0.7890

0.8033

0.7744

0.7230

0.6757

0.7562

0.7394

0.6233

0.7010

0.6910

0.6230

0.6886

0.6346

0.6751

0.6447

0.7379

0.7199

0.6949

0.6686

0.7221

0.6921

0.6820

0.7436

0.7095

0.7395

0.6529

0.6726

Cndl; NZD=; Bid

24/09/2018; 0,6675; 0,6687; 0,6639; 0,6639

EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20

24/09/2018; 0,6616

WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55

24/09/2018; 0,6638

Price

USD

Auto

0,635

0,64

0,645

0,65

0,655

0,66

0,665

0,67

0,675

0,68

0,685

0,69

0,695

0,7

0,705

0,71

0,715

0,72

0,725

RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

24/09/2018; 57,025 Value

USD

Auto

Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14

24/09/2018; 0,0085 Value

USD

Auto

09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01

April 2018 Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)


Sep 24 132.180 133.054 131.886 116,8 132.513 28,0 132.233

Sep 21 132.453 133.113 132.139 97,4 132.233 8,5 132.318

Sep 20 131.035 132.502 130.894 160,8 132.318 127,0 131.048

Sep 19 131.133 131.663 130.763 90,0 131.048 6,0 131.108

Sep 18 130.685 131.481 130.283 119,8 131.108 46,2 130.646



133.054 131.886 133.113 128.000 131.087 124.885 137.486 124.602

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (21/Sep) (07/Sep) (01/Aug) (15/Aug) (02/Feb) (29/May)


RESISTANCE

136.96 High Feb 01,2018

135.84 High Feb 07,2018

134.16 High Feb 08,2018

133.24 High Apr 26,2018

SUPPORT


130.92 Low Sep 20,2018

130.28 Low Sep 18,2018

129.24 Low Sep 13,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 132.30

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 131.30

TARGET 133.40

133.80

Daily EURJPY= 19/03/2018 - 03/10/2018 (JAK)

126.04

13.1.18

149.72

141.05

139.02

128.16

134.59

132.50

130.00

124.64

126.25

114.80

109.46

110.78

118.45

112.31

133.48

131.98

131.37130.84

137.50

124.61

128.48

Cndl; EURJPY=; Bid

24/09/2018; 132,28; 133,06; 131,89; 132,53

EMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Open); 20

24/09/2018; 130,14

WMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 55

24/09/2018; 129,48

Price

JPY

Auto

122,5

123

123,5

124

124,5

125

125,5

126

126,5

127

127,5

128

128,5

129

129,5

130

130,5

131

131,5

132

132,5

133

133,5

134

134,5

135

RSI; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

24/09/2018; 75,187

Value

JPY

Auto

Mom; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14

24/09/2018; 3,46

Value

JPY

Auto

19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 01

Maret 2018 April 2018 Mei 2018 Juni 2018 Juli 2018 Agustus 2018 September 2018



USD/CAD Interest Rate: 1.75%-2.00% (US)/1.25% (CA)

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.2912 1.2951



1.2956 1.2905 1.3226 1.2880 1.3174 1.2883 1.3385 1.2246

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (06/Sep) (20/Sep) (13/Aug) (28/Aug) (27/Jun) (31/Jan)


RESISTANCE

1.3226 High Sep 06,2018

1.3174 High Sep 11,2018

1.3078 High Sep 12,2018

1.3000 High Sep 19,2018

SUPPORT

1.2814 Low May 31, 2018

1.2738 Low May 22, 2018

1.2628 Low Apr 20,2018

1.2581 Low Apr 19,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.2935

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 1.2875

TARGET 1.3015-1.3045

1.2810



Gold barely changed after dollar pares losses; cautious ahead of Fed - Reuters News

Gold was barely changed on Monday after the dollar dropped following remarks by the head of the European Central Bank then later pared losses, although activity was muted ahead of a U.S. central bank meeting this week. Spot gold increased 0.04 percent at $1,199.57 per ounce by 1:44PM EDT (1744 GMT), giving up earlier gains.

U.S. gold futures December delivery settled up $3.10, or 0.3 percent, at $1,204.40 per ounce. Liquidity was thin during Asian trading hours on Monday as markets in Japan and China were closed for a holiday. The dollar index fell after comments by ECB President Mario Draghi on wage growth and vigorous inflation lifted the euro. The greenback later pared losses. "I remain constructive on gold after we've seen it consolidate for the past month. The risk to the dollar is some additional weakness, but at this stage we have to maintain a neutral stance," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. Investors await details from the Federal Reserve meeting concluding on Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank is expected to raise benchmark interest rates and shed light on the path for future rate hikes. Higher U.S. interest rates typically pressure gold, since it costs to store and insure, but does not pay interest. "Realistically, it could be a muted move, because the rate increase is already priced in," said George Gero, vice president of RBC Capital Markets. Gold has fallen more than 12 percent since its April peak against a backdrop of trade disputes and rising U.S. interest rates. The United States and China imposed fresh tariffs on each other's goods as the world's biggest economies showed no signs of backing down from a trade dispute that is expected to knock global economic growth. Meanwhile, speculators increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 18, U.S. data showed on Friday. "The price would rise noticeably if sentiment were to turn and short positions were to be covered. This may happen following the Fed rate hike expected on Wednesday, as gold has often gained following a Fed rate hike in the past," Commerzbank said in a note. Spot palladium gained 0.9 percent at $1,058.72 an ounce after hitting $1,060.70, its highest since Feb. 27. Platinum added 0.3 percent at $829.10 per ounce. "Demand continues in platinum and palladium for electric vehicles," said Gero, following news that Volkswagon's Porsche dropped diesel in its push for electric cars. Silver rose 0.3 percent at $14.29 an ounce. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

PRECIOUS METAL



GOLD (XAU/USD)


Sep 24 1198.250 1204.050 1194.330 9.72 1198.700 0.06 1198.760 -- --

Sep 21 1207.200 1210.930 1191.720 19.21 1198.760 8.22 1206.980 -- --

Sep 20 1203.730 1208.310 1201.200 7.11 1206.980 3.17 1203.810 -- --

Sep 19 1197.820 1206.080 1197.530 8.55 1203.810 5.66 1198.150 -- --

Sep 18 1201.130 1203.430 1195.780 7.65 1198.150 3.08 1201.230 -- --



1204.050 1194.330 1212.540 1187.610 1224.680 1160.130 1365.910 1160.130

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (13/Sep) (11/Sep) (01/Aug) (16/Aug) (25/Jan) (16/Aug)


RESISTANCE

1228.31 Reactions High on D-Chart ( Jul 31,2018)

1217.03 High Aug 10,2018

1213.83 High Aug 13,2018

1207.33 High Aug 29,2018

SUPPORT

1190.65 Low Sep 05,2018

1182.28 Low Aug 20,2018

1171.61 Low Aug 17,2018

1159.96 Low Aug 16,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1199.00

STOP LOSS 1206.00

TARGET 1190.00

1185.00



SILVER (XAG/USD)


Sep 24 14.260 14.373 14.176 0.20 14.238 0.04 14.274

Sep 21 14.302 14.414 14.137 0.28 14.274 0.03 14.301

Sep 20 14.233 14.334 14.164 0.17 14.301 0.07 14.226

Sep 19 14.136 14.322 14.130 0.19 14.226 0.10 14.131

Sep 18 14.167 14.216 14.057 0.16 14.131 0.03 14.162



14.373 14.176 14.535 13.923 15.519 14.317 17.682 13.923



RESISTANCE

14.81 High Aug 30,2018

14.71 High Aug 31,2018

14.54 High Sep 03, 2018

14.35 High Sep 13, 2018

SUPPORT

14.12 Low Sep 19,2018

14.00 Low Sep 17,2018

13.90 Low Sep 11,2018

13.50 Fibo.Projections on D-Chart (100.0%)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY -----

SELL 14.25

STOP LOSS 14.40

TARGET 14.00

13.75



Oil prices surge as Saudis, Russia won't open spigots - Reuters News

Global Benchmark Brent crude jumped more than 3 percent on Monday to a four-year high above $80 a barrel after Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC states, including top producer Russia, gathered in Algiers on Sunday for a meeting that ended with no formal recommendation for any additional supply boost to counter falling supply from Iran.

"The market's still being driven by concerns about Iranian and Venezuelan supply," said Gene McGillian, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford. "The failure of the producers to address that adequately this weekend is creating a buying opportunity." Brent crude settled up $2.40 or 3.1 percent at $81.20 a barrel, after touching an intraday high of $81.39, the highest since November, 2014. U.S. light crude settled up $1.30, or 1.8 percent, higher at $72.08. OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its biggest oil-producer ally outside the group, Russia, on Sunday effectively rebuffed Trump's demand for moves to cool the market. "I do not influence prices," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told reporters on Sunday. Trump said last week that OPEC "must get prices down now!", but Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said on Monday OPEC had not responded positively to Trump's demands. "It is now increasingly evident, that in the face of producers reluctant to raise output, the market will be confronted with supply gaps in the next three-six months that it will need to resolve through higher oil prices," BNP Paribas oil strategist Harry Tchilinguirian told Reuters Global Oil Forum. Commodity traders Trafigura and Mercuria said Brent could rise to $90 per barrel by Christmas and pass $100 in early 2019, as markets tighten once U.S. sanctions against Iran are fully implemented from November. JPMorgan said U.S. sanctions on Iran could lead to a loss of 1.5 million barrels per day, while Mercuria warned that as much as 2 million bpd could be knocked out of the market. Concerns about production shortfalls are encouraging traders to place more long bets, boosting Brent prices, said Brian LaRose, a technical analyst at United-ICAP. "This is the seventh time over the last couple of months that we have challenged the highs," he said, referring to individual monthly contracts, rather than a continuation contract. If Brent prices climb past $82 a barrel, he said prices up to $90 would be a near-term possibility. Some have said softening demand from trade tensions between the U.S. and China to offset loss of Iranian supply, but Tradition's McGillian said that unless trade tensions show signs of eroding Chinese demand, oil prices will surge further. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are at their lowest since early 2015. While U.S. oil production is near a record high of 11 million bpd, subdued U.S. drilling points toward a slowdown in output. (Source Reuters, Research – rizal)

O I L



CLX8/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 22 Oct 2018 - Reuters)


Sep 24 70.75 72.72 70.75 1.97 72.25 1.54 70.71

Sep 21 70.20 71.76 69.98 1.78 70.71 0.53 70.18

Sep 20 70.96 71.32 70.02 1.30 70.18 0.83 71.01

Sep 19 69.42 71.05 69.35 1.70 71.01 1.57 69.44

Sep 18 (CLX8) 68.68 70.15 68.28 1.87 69.44 0.93 68.51

Sep 18 (CLV8) 68.78 70.40 68.52 1.88 69.71 0.97 68.74



72.72 70.75 72.72 66.85 70.48 64.43 75.25 58.06

(24/Sep) (24/Sep) (24/Sep) (07/Sep) (30/Aug) (16/Aug) (03/Jul) (09/Feb)


RESISTANCE

79.49 Fibo.Projections on D-Chart ( 261.8% )




SUPPORT

71.03 Low Sep 20,2018

69.36 Low Sep 19,2018

68.53 Low Sep 17,2018

67.94 Low Sep 14,2018

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 71.75

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 70.75

TARGET 73.25

73.75

DAILY OUTLOOKalphagoldfutures.com/pdfresearch/341-Daily Outlook... · some $200 billion worth of...

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