Daily Morning Brief 15022012
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Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” Daily Morning Brief 15 February, 2012 This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz), which is regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. This Report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to its accuracy or completeness. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report. For further information, please contact ‘Markaz’ at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait. Tel: 00965 1804800 Fax: 00965 22450647. Email: [email protected] Equity watch Indicators M. Cap (USD Bn) Last Close Chg (%) MTD % YTD % 2011 % P/E TTM Div. Yield MENA Markets Saudi (TASI) 356 6,816 -0.22 2.87 6.21 -3 13 3.6 Turkey ISE National 100 192 59,662 -1.48 4.36 16.38 -22 10 2.5 Kuwait SE WT.INDEX 107 406 -0.22 0.25 0.12 -16 14 4.7 Qatar(QE Index) 96 8,695 0.00 1.48 -0.96 1 10 4.2 Abu Dhabi (ADI) 73 2,490 0.95 1.45 3.63 -12 8 4.9 Morocco (CAI) 62 11,305 -0.39 0.83 2.51 -13 12 3.5 Dubai (DFMGI) 50 1,539 1.16 7.21 13.73 -17 10 4.4 Egypt (Hermes) 60 505 -0.15 8.36 32.46 -42 10 4.4 Jordan (Amman) 23 4,448 -0.44 0.76 -4.32 -13 13 3.5 Bahrain (BAX) 17 1,142 -0.06 0.23 -0.11 -20 8 5.0 Oman(Muscat SM) 14 5,607 0.32 0.82 -1.55 -16 12 4.8 Lebanon (BSE) 13 1,184 0.00 1.51 0.64 -20 10 0.5 Emerging Markets MSCI EM Index 4,190 1,036 -0.55 3.05 14.57 -21 12 2.8 MSCI BRIC Index 1,877 1,038 -0.55 3.47 17.97 -26 10 2.8 Shanghai A Share Index 2,476 2,456 -0.30 2.27 6.61 -22 12 2.2 SENSEX Index (India) 609 17,849 0.43 3.81 15.49 -25 16 1.5 S&P GCC Composite 240 95 -0.20 2.09 3.75 -8 12* 3.5* Developed Markets MSCI WORLD Index 32,300 825 -0.45 2.79 8.96 -10 14 2.7 US (S&P 500) 12,665 1,351 -0.09 2.90 7.39 0 15 2.5 UK (FTSE) 2,590 5,900 -0.10 3.84 5.88 -6 11 4.0 Japan (Nikkei 225) 2,300 9,052 0.59 2.84 7.06 -17 16 2.1 France (CAC) 1,147 3,376 -0.26 2.34 6.83 -17 10 4.7 Germany (DAX) 929 6,728 -0.15 4.17 14.07 -15 11 3.6 * - P/E & Div. Yield for GCC as per Zawya Fixed Income Watch Last Chg (%) MTD % YTD % 2011 2011% Barclays US treas. 10 Yr 232 0.41 -0.67 0.24 231.43 15 JP Morgan Em Bond Idx 584 0.07 1.29 3.07 567.00 8 HSBC/Nasd. Dub GCC $ T.Ret 134 0.00 0.34 0.86 133.00 8 Commodity/Currency/Volatility Watch Close Chg (%) MTD % YTD % 2011 2011% Precious Metals Gold $/oz 1,719.10 -0.20 -1.15 9.91 1564.11 10 Silver $/oz 33.54 -0.45 1.27 20.73 27.78 -10 IPE Brent $/bbl 117.35 -0.49 5.74 9.28 107.38 14 CRB Commodity Index 495.44 -0.52 -0.71 2.79 482.01 -7 Volatility & Currency CBOE VIX index 19.54 2.63 0.51 -16.50 23.4 32 USD (1 EUR =) 1.31 0.50 -0.34 -1.30 1.2955 -3 Yen (1 USD =) 78.41 -1.08 -2.78 -1.90 76.92 -5 KWD (1 USD =) 0.2778 -0.12 -0.11 0.18 0.27825 -1 KWD (1 EUR =) 0.3646 0.36 -0.47 -1.12 0.3605 -4 Blue chip watch * 4Q11 Companies M. Cap (USD Bn) Last Pct Chg % M T D % Y T D 2011 % P / E (ttm) Div yield PAT (Mn) 3Q11 % Gr YoY Saudi Arabia (SAR) SABIC 76 95.0 0.0 0.5 -1 -8 10 4.2 5,237* -9 Al-Rajhi Bank 29 73.8 -0.3 2.1 6 -16 15 4.4 1,899* 14 Saudi Telecom 19 36.3 -0.5 5.8 7 -21 9 6.2 2,278* -0 Saudi Electricity Co. 16 14.2 0.4 3.3 2 -1 27 4.9 -514* NM Samba Fin. Group 12 48.9 -0.4 8.2 5 -24 10 3.2 944* 5 ETISALAT 20 9.4 1.4 -1.2 3 -15 10 6.4 704* -65 NBAD 9 10.9 0.0 1.4 0 12 9 2.8 724* -1 First Gulf Bank 7 17.9 0.6 4.1 16 -11 8 5.6 1,022* 18 Emirates NBD 5 3.0 1.0 -1.0 1 7 6 6.7 175 -59 Emaar Properties 5 3.0 1.4 8.8 16 -28 14 3.4 406 -34 Kuwait (KWD) ZAIN 13 0.9 -2.3 2.4 -4 -41 12 23.3 70 -13 NBK 17 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 4 -14 15 3.4 77* -0 KFH 8 0.8 -1.2 -3.5 -8 -16 28 2.4 25 -5 Gulf Bank 4 0.5 0.0 0.0 -4 -11 33 0.0 3* -63 Comm. Bk. Kuwait 3 0.7 0.0 -5.3 -10 -14 32 0.0 -7* NM Qatar (QAR) Industries Qatar 20 134.0 -0.3 2.6 1 -4 9 4.1 2,074 46 QNB 26 136.3 0.2 2.4 -1 14 12 2.9 2,092* 35 Ezdan Real Est. Co. 14 18.9 0.0 -1.3 -15 -27 332 0.0 202 17 Q-TEL 7 149.9 0.5 2.7 6 -5 11 3.3 567 -13 Comr’cial Bk of Qatar 6 81.1 0.5 -2.1 -3 -9 11 7.4 379* 23 5 – year CDS (USD) watch (bps) Country Current 2011 52-week High Low Saudi Arabia 131.59 123.32 137.30 75.40 Abu-Dhabi 129.13 124.89 148.50 75.40 Dubai 391.45 445.00 509.90 319.53 Qatar 129.14 125.39 146.93 90.16 Oman 205.00 246.00 290.50 137.50 Bahrain 380.91 376.66 387.62 220.22 Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Eikon Interest rate watch Inter-bank Deposit rate 3M Int rates % US 3M Rate % Diff FY10 Diff Kuwait 0.33 0.50 -0.17 0.04 Saudi 0.51 0.50 0.01 -0.08 UAE 0.55 0.50 0.05 0.03 Qatar 0.30 0.50 -0.20 0.05 Oman 0.30 0.50 -0.20 0.03 Bahrain 0.80 0.50 0.30 -0.17 Last FOMC Meeting Date: Jan 24-25 Next FOMC Meet Date: Mar 13 Yield curve watch Libor (In %) US Treasuries (In %) KIBOR yield curve (%) Corporate earnings watch Company Name Type Country Currency Earnings % Ch LFY PFY Galfar Engg & Contrctng 12M Oman OMR(Mn) 5.17 6 - 14 Oman Intl Marketing 12M Oman OMR(Mn) -0.04 -0.2 NM Renaissance Services Co. 12M Oman OMR(Mn) 2 29 -92 Gulf Nor Afr Holding 12M Kuwait KWD(Mn) -2 0 NM News & Views Iraq aims to more than double northern oil production from around 600,000 bpd to about 1.3mn bpd by the end of 2014, executives from the Northern Oil Co said. Kuwait will complete the feasibility study soon for a JV with Sinopec and Total SA to build a 300,000 bpd refinery and 1mn MTPA ethylene complex in Zhanjiang in China, the head of Kuwait oil company said. QNB Finance, a subsidiary of Qatar National Bank, will raise $1bn through the sale of a 5yr bond, priced to yield 3.456%, a banker familiar with the deal said. Saudi Cement Co. said it will reopen two kilns with a combined production capacity of 5,325 tons of clinkers by May, responding to rising demand for cement. Saudi utility Marafiq signed an agreement with Saudi banks for a SAR 4.5bn ($1.2bn) Islamic Murabaha loan for projects and operations. S&P has affirmed ‘A/A-1’ long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on Qatar’s incumbent fixed-line and mobile operator Qtel. The outlook is stable. S&P has said that rising tension between Iran and the West is increasing political and economic risks for sovereign & corporate issuers in the Middle East and is focusing attention on the key role of the Strait of Hormuz in trade for the Gulf. Bahrain’s Gulf Air has decided to close four of its biggest under- performing routes - Syrian captal Damascus, Athens (Greece), Milan (Italy) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) from next month. Note: 1 Weekend Details – Saudi Arabia – Thursday & Friday; Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Saturday & Sunday; MENA Ex-Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets – Saturday & Sunday. Markaz Research can now be accessed on Bloomberg. Type “MRKZ” <Go>.
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Daily Morning Brief 15022012
Transcript of Daily Morning Brief 15022012
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
Daily Morning Brief
15 February, 2012
This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz), which is regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to
copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly
mention the source as “Markaz “. This Report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial
instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us
as to its accuracy or completeness. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report. For further information, please contact ‘Markaz’ at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait. Tel: 00965 1804800
Fax: 00965 22450647. Email: [email protected]
Equity watch
Indicators
M. Cap
(USD Bn)
Last
Close
Chg
(%)
MTD
%
YTD
%
2011
%
P/E
TTM
Div.
Yield
MENA Markets
Saudi (TASI) 356 6,816 -0.22 2.87 6.21 -3 13 3.6
Turkey ISE National 100 192 59,662 -1.48 4.36 16.38 -22 10 2.5
Kuwait SE WT.INDEX 107 406 -0.22 0.25 0.12 -16 14 4.7
Qatar(QE Index) 96 8,695 0.00 1.48 -0.96 1 10 4.2
Abu Dhabi (ADI) 73 2,490 0.95 1.45 3.63 -12 8 4.9
Morocco (CAI) 62 11,305 -0.39 0.83 2.51 -13 12 3.5
Dubai (DFMGI) 50 1,539 1.16 7.21 13.73 -17 10 4.4
Egypt (Hermes) 60 505 -0.15 8.36 32.46 -42 10 4.4
Jordan (Amman) 23 4,448 -0.44 0.76 -4.32 -13 13 3.5
Bahrain (BAX) 17 1,142 -0.06 0.23 -0.11 -20 8 5.0
Oman(Muscat SM) 14 5,607 0.32 0.82 -1.55 -16 12 4.8
Lebanon (BSE) 13 1,184 0.00 1.51 0.64 -20 10 0.5
Emerging Markets
MSCI EM Index 4,190 1,036 -0.55 3.05 14.57 -21 12 2.8
MSCI BRIC Index 1,877 1,038 -0.55 3.47 17.97 -26 10 2.8
Shanghai A Share Index 2,476 2,456 -0.30 2.27 6.61 -22 12 2.2
SENSEX Index (India) 609 17,849 0.43 3.81 15.49 -25 16 1.5
S&P GCC Composite 240 95 -0.20 2.09 3.75 -8 12* 3.5*
Developed Markets
MSCI WORLD Index 32,300 825 -0.45 2.79 8.96 -10 14 2.7
US (S&P 500) 12,665 1,351 -0.09 2.90 7.39 0 15 2.5
UK (FTSE) 2,590 5,900 -0.10 3.84 5.88 -6 11 4.0
Japan (Nikkei 225) 2,300 9,052 0.59 2.84 7.06 -17 16 2.1
France (CAC) 1,147 3,376 -0.26 2.34 6.83 -17 10 4.7
Germany (DAX) 929 6,728 -0.15 4.17 14.07 -15 11 3.6 *- P/E & Div. Yield for GCC as per Zawya
Fixed Income Watch Last Chg (%) MTD % YTD % 2011 2011%
Barclays US treas. 10 Yr 232 0.41 -0.67 0.24 231.43 15
JP Morgan Em Bond Idx 584 0.07 1.29 3.07 567.00 8 HSBC/Nasd. Dub GCC $ T.Ret 134 0.00 0.34 0.86 133.00 8
Commodity/Currency/Volatility Watch Close Chg (%) MTD % YTD % 2011 2011% Precious Metals
Gold $/oz 1,719.10 -0.20 -1.15 9.91 1564.11 10
Silver $/oz 33.54 -0.45 1.27 20.73 27.78 -10
IPE Brent $/bbl 117.35 -0.49 5.74 9.28 107.38 14
CRB Commodity Index 495.44 -0.52 -0.71 2.79 482.01 -7
Volatility & Currency
CBOE VIX index 19.54 2.63 0.51 -16.50 23.4 32
USD (1 EUR =) 1.31 0.50 -0.34 -1.30 1.2955 -3
Yen (1 USD =) 78.41 -1.08 -2.78 -1.90 76.92 -5
KWD (1 USD =) 0.2778 -0.12 -0.11 0.18 0.27825 -1
KWD (1 EUR =) 0.3646 0.36 -0.47 -1.12 0.3605 -4
Blue chip watch *4Q11
Companies
M. Cap
(USD Bn)
Last Pct
Chg
% M
T D
% Y
T D
2011
%
P /
E (ttm)
Div
yield
PAT (Mn)
3Q11 % Gr YoY
Saudi Arabia (SAR)
SABIC 76 95.0 0.0 0.5 -1 -8 10 4.2 5,237* -9
Al-Rajhi Bank 29 73.8 -0.3 2.1 6 -16 15 4.4 1,899* 14
Saudi Telecom 19 36.3 -0.5 5.8 7 -21 9 6.2 2,278* -0
Saudi Electricity Co. 16 14.2 0.4 3.3 2 -1 27 4.9 -514* NM
Samba Fin. Group 12 48.9 -0.4 8.2 5 -24 10 3.2 944* 5
ETISALAT 20 9.4 1.4 -1.2 3 -15 10 6.4 704* -65
NBAD 9 10.9 0.0 1.4 0 12 9 2.8 724* -1
First Gulf Bank 7 17.9 0.6 4.1 16 -11 8 5.6 1,022* 18
Emirates NBD 5 3.0 1.0 -1.0 1 7 6 6.7 175 -59
Emaar Properties 5 3.0 1.4 8.8 16 -28 14 3.4 406 -34
Kuwait (KWD)
ZAIN 13 0.9 -2.3 2.4 -4 -41 12 23.3 70 -13
NBK 17 1.2 -1.7 -1.7 4 -14 15 3.4 77* -0
KFH 8 0.8 -1.2 -3.5 -8 -16 28 2.4 25 -5
Gulf Bank 4 0.5 0.0 0.0 -4 -11 33 0.0 3* -63
Comm. Bk. Kuwait 3 0.7 0.0 -5.3 -10 -14 32 0.0 -7* NM
Qatar (QAR)
Industries Qatar 20 134.0 -0.3 2.6 1 -4 9 4.1 2,074 46
QNB 26 136.3 0.2 2.4 -1 14 12 2.9 2,092* 35
Ezdan Real Est. Co. 14 18.9 0.0 -1.3 -15 -27 332 0.0 202 17
Q-TEL 7 149.9 0.5 2.7 6 -5 11 3.3 567 -13
Comr’cial Bk of Qatar 6 81.1 0.5 -2.1 -3 -9 11 7.4 379* 23
5 – year CDS (USD) watch (bps)
Country Current 2011 52-week
High Low
Saudi Arabia 131.59 123.32 137.30 75.40
Abu-Dhabi 129.13 124.89 148.50 75.40
Dubai 391.45 445.00 509.90 319.53
Qatar 129.14 125.39 146.93 90.16
Oman 205.00 246.00 290.50 137.50
Bahrain 380.91 376.66 387.62 220.22 Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Eikon
Interest rate watch Inter-bank
Deposit rate
3M Int
rates %
US 3M
Rate % Diff FY10 Diff
Kuwait 0.33 0.50 -0.17 0.04
Saudi 0.51 0.50 0.01 -0.08
UAE 0.55 0.50 0.05 0.03
Qatar 0.30 0.50 -0.20 0.05
Oman 0.30 0.50 -0.20 0.03
Bahrain 0.80 0.50 0.30 -0.17
Last FOMC Meeting Date: Jan 24-25 Next FOMC Meet Date: Mar 13
Yield curve watch Libor (In %) US Treasuries (In %)
KIBOR yield curve (%)
Corporate earnings watch
Company
Name
Type Country Currency
Earnings %
Ch LFY PFY
Galfar Engg
& Contrctng
12M Oman OMR(Mn) 5.17 6 -
14
Oman Intl
Marketing
12M Oman OMR(Mn) -0.04 -0.2 NM
Renaissance
Services Co.
12M Oman OMR(Mn) 2 29 -92
Gulf Nor Afr
Holding
12M Kuwait KWD(Mn) -2 0 NM
News & Views Iraq aims to more than double northern oil production from around
600,000 bpd to about 1.3mn bpd by the end of 2014, executives from the Northern Oil Co said.
Kuwait will complete the feasibility study soon for a JV with Sinopec and Total SA to build a 300,000 bpd refinery and 1mn MTPA ethylene complex
in Zhanjiang in China, the head of Kuwait oil company said. QNB Finance, a subsidiary of Qatar National Bank, will raise $1bn through
the sale of a 5yr bond, priced to yield 3.456%, a banker familiar with the deal said.
Saudi Cement Co. said it will reopen two kilns with a combined production capacity of 5,325 tons of clinkers by May, responding to rising demand
for cement. Saudi utility Marafiq signed an agreement with Saudi banks for a SAR
4.5bn ($1.2bn) Islamic Murabaha loan for projects and operations. S&P has affirmed ‘A/A-1’ long- and short-term corporate credit ratings on
Qatar’s incumbent fixed-line and mobile operator Qtel. The outlook is stable.
S&P has said that rising tension between Iran and the West is increasing political and economic risks for sovereign & corporate issuers in the
Middle East and is focusing attention on the key role of the Strait of Hormuz in trade for the Gulf.
Bahrain’s Gulf Air has decided to close four of its biggest under-performing routes - Syrian captal Damascus, Athens (Greece), Milan
(Italy) and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) from next month.
Note: 1 Weekend Details – Saudi Arabia – Thursday & Friday; Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Saturday & Sunday; MENA Ex-Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets – Saturday & Sunday. Markaz Research can now be accessed on Bloomberg. Type “MRKZ” <Go>.
