1

17 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Breathing a sigh of relief

Expect the SET to trade up today, following a much needed positive

surprise from the US in terms of labor data and industrial production.

Locally there are warning signs of future household debt issues but for

now the emphasis will be on the recovering growth. Globally strong US

data looks to boost regional and local equities. All this and the stepping

up of counter Ebola and IS have helped to lessen risk-aversion and allows

for the SET to move up today.

Factors to watch

Local issues:

Debt-bill to be extended. Following self-immolation of a woman protesting the Bt1.5mn debt she owed loan-sharks, government will extend a bill passed on August 29th to also cover informal lending agreements. Bill will require those participating in lending to register their business, prohibit use of force and intimidation in debt collection, and also limit interest rate, which can reach 20%/day. (Bangkok Post). Comment: Timely measure as mounting household debt is increasingly an issue – household debt is currently at 83% of GDP and is expected to increase to about 86-87% next year.

Increasing reliance on informal loans. University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) found in its latest survey that ratio of unorganized debt for low-income earners is higher than organized debt for the first time in many years, with rising unorganized debt found mainly among families earning less than Bt10,000/month, especially amongst farmers and laborers. UTCC president points out this suggests low-income earners are really struggling to make ends meet and have to increasingly resort to unconventional means.

Ad industry suffering. Media company Group M, the world’s biggest media company by billing, says Thai advertising industry is still weak and will not recover until next year when government carries out its economic measures. Year-to-date expenditure till September 2014 fell 9.33% and fell for all types of advertising from TV (7.43%) to magazines (16.94%), with only transit advertising and internet increasing marginally by respectively 2.94% and 3.07% respectively. (The Nation) Comment: With 50% of its revenue from advertising on the BTS, VGI may be the outperformer representing an opportunistic buy.

BOI and ministry to promote ROHs. Government has pledged to amend laws and regulations to incentivize MNCs to set up regional operating headquarters (ROH). Some tax concessions already exist but new package will include not only tax perks but also infrastructure and other measures to facilitate work permit and visa processing. (Bangkok Post)

AOT has cut the budget for the second phase of the expansion at Suvarnabhumi Airport. After a new feasibility study, AOT adjusted the budget from the initial Bt85bn to Bt61.6bn. However, all major aspects of the second phase are retained as planned, and work is expected to start next year. The plan will be proposed to the Transport Ministry for approval on

October 28. Comment: At the current time AOT has abundant cash on hand of over Bt45bn, and strong internal cash-generating ability of over Bt20bn/year. AOT should be ready to invest heavily going forward. We maintain target price of Bt278.

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Thailand Research Department:

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.017923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Narudon Rusme (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpan (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,526.15 -21.3 -1.4

SET50 1,012.23 -14.3 -1.4

SET P/E (x) 17.8

SET P/BV (x) 2.2

SET Div. Yield (%) 2.9

Dow Jones 16,117.24 -24.5 -0.2

S&P 500 1,862.76 +0.3 +0.0

NASDAQ 4,217.39 +2.1 +0.0

UK 6,195.91 -15.7 -0.3

Germany 8,582.90 +11.0 +0.1

France 3,918.62 -21.1 -0.5

Japan 14,738.38 -335.1 -2.2

South Korea 1,918.83 -7.1 -0.4

Hong Kong 22,900.94 -239.1 -1.0

China 2,356.50 -17.2 -0.7

Taiwan 8,633.69 -21.8 -0.3

Singapore 3,154.21 -44.5 -1.4

Malaysia 1,767.77 -19.1 -1.1

Indonesia 4,951.61 -11.3 -0.2

Philippines 7,028.58 +37.4 +0.5

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 3,006 2,864 142

Proprietary 4,320 4,073 247

Foreign 8,029 10,606 -2,577

Individuals 30,967 28,779 2,188

Total Trading Value 46,323 Btm

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

PTT 2,322 345.00 -1.7

TPIPL 1,869 19.70 -0.5

BBL 1,443 192.00 -1.5

PTTGC 1,335 58.25 -2.5

PTTEP 1,315 145.00 -1.4

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 82.70 +0.9 +1.1

Brent Crude 84.47 +0.7 +0.8

Gold 1,241.20 -3.6 -0.3

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 32.40 -0.0 -0.1

EUR/USD 1.28 -0.0 -0.2

USD/JPY 106.32 +0.4 +0.4

USD/CNY 6.12 -0.0 -0.0

2

17 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

JAS reported its 3Q14 at Bt648mn, down 14% YoY from Bt755mn in 3Q13. The Company has set up Bt274mn for provision for debts. Its 9M14 increased only 6.23% YoY (Post Today)

Global issues

Yesterday’s positive US data, as well as somewhat dovish comments from

the Fed, provided much needed support for Wall Street. In Europe, the ghost

of the sovereign debt crisis rears its unpleasant head, affecting equities and

rates markets alike. Easing geopolitical tension in the face of WHO

measures to combat Ebola and news of an IS retreat however, look to

alleviate risk-aversion in the markets.

After being on a recent upwards trend and breaching 30 on Wednesday,

yesterday the VIX index closed at 25.20, down 4.0% from Thursday’s close

of 26.25, reflecting easing risk-aversion and abating uncertainty.

(Reuters)

USA

Strong US labor data supports Wall Street, strengthens greenback. The

US Department of Labour reported yesterday jobless claims in the week

ending October 11th fell by 23,000 to 264,000 from the previous week’s

287,000, versus expectations of a 3,000 increase to 290,000. The jobless

claims was the lowest level since 2000. September Industrial Production

also rebounded strongly, expanding 1.0% versus 0.4% expected, while the

Capacity Utilization of 79.3% versus 79.0% was at its highest since June

2008. Dow was down 0.15% but S&P and NASDAQ were up 0.01% and

0.05%, respectively. Underlining continued expectations of policy

divergence between the Fed and ECB/BOJ, the US$ strengthened against

both currencies, and yesterday US$/JPY was up 0.29% and EUR/US$ was

down 0.3%. US index increased 0.22% to 85.05. (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ)

Dovish hawk helps equities and caps yield. Fed’s Bullard, traditionally a

hawk said FOMC should consider delaying end of QE while there was still

no strong inflation. Comment: While comment reflected a surprising

dovish turn from a hawk, since Bullard is a non-voter comment had

limited effect.

Europe

Equities down on sovereign debt concerns. Polls in Greece show the

incumbent government looking likely to lose on grounds on its austerity

measures and that the opposition are campaigning on platforms of populist

policies likely to be disastrous for fiscal stability, have led to renewed fears

of Greek solvency. Anxiety sent Greece 10-year yields up close to 9.0% from

just below 7% a week ago. The spread between 10-year Bund and those of

Spain and Italy also started to widen. Concerns affected equities as well,

with FTSE closing 0.25% lower, CAC closing down 0.5%, while Milan

dropped 1.2%. DAX edged up 0.1%. (Bloomberg, Reuters).

Asia

3

17 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Markets have opened higher Friday on strong US data. (Bloomberg)

Commodities

NYMEX halted its recent drops yesterday by rising 92 cents to close at

US$82.70/barrel while Brent traded up 69 cents to US$84.47/barrel,

reflecting the slowing increase of the US$, as well as strong US economic

outlook. (Reuters)

Gold moved down by US$1.87 to close at US$1,238.70, reflecting abating

risk-aversion and slightly strengthening US$. (Bloomberg, Reuters).

Date Regions Economic Indicators

13-Oct-14 CNY

New Loans Trade Balance Export/Import

JPY/US Holiday

15-Oct-14 CNY CPI / PPI

JPY Industrial Production

16-Oct

US Retail Sale

Industrial Production Jobless Claim

EU CPI

Trade Balance

17-Oct-14 US Consumer Sentiment Index

EU Construction output

Date XD

15-Oct-14

HEMRAJ 0.07 Baht Cash

MODERN 0.25 Baht Cash

PRG 0.25 Baht Cash

20-Oct-14

AP 0.02 Baht Cash

AP 10:1 Baht Cash

MBK 0.30 Baht Cash

MNIT2 0.18 Baht Cash

MNRF 0.185 Baht Cash

M-PAT 0.222 Baht Cash

M-STOR 0.17 Baht Cash

21-Oct-14 HMPRO 0.013889 Baht Cash

HMPRO 8:1 Stock

24-Oct-14 VIH 0.00740741 Baht Cash

VIH 15:1 Stock

4

17 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

ADVANC BTS GRAMMY MCOT PTT SC SSI TMBAOT CIMBT HANA MINT PTTEP SCB SSSC TNITYASIMAR CK HEMRAJ NKI PTTGC SCC SVI TOPBAFS CPF ICC NOBLE QH SCSMG SYMC TRCBANPU CPN INTUCH PAP RATCH SE-ED TCAP TRUEBAY CSL IRPC PG ROBINS SIM THAI TTWBBL DRT IVL PHOL RS SIS THCOM TVOBCP DTAC KBANK PR S&J SITHAI THRE UVBECL EASTW KKP PRANDA SAMART SNC TIP VGIBKI EGCO KTB PS SAMTEL SPALI TISCO WACOALBROOK ERW LPN PSL SAT SPI TKT

2S ASP CHOW GBX JUBILE LRH NMG PPP SINGER TCP TOG UACACAP AYUD CM GC KBS LST NSI PREB SIRI TF TPC UMIAF BEC CNT GFPT KCE MACO NWR PRG SKR TFD TPCORP UMSAHC BFIT CPALL GL KGI MAJOR OCC PT SMT TFI TPIPL UPAIT BH CSC GLOW KKC MAKRO OFM PYLON SNP THANA TRT UPOICAKP BIGC DCC GOLD KSL MBK OGC QTC SPCG THANI TRU UTAMANAH BJC DELTA GSTEL KWC MBKET OISHI RASA SPPT THIP TSC VIBHAAMARIN BLA DTC GUNKUL L&E MFC PB SABINA SSF TICON TSTE VIHAMATA BMCL ECL HMPRO LANNA MFEC PDI SAMCO STANLY TIPCO TSTH VNGAP BWG EE HTC LH MODERN PE SCCC STEC TK TTA VNTAPCO CCET EIC IFEC LHBANK MTI PF SCG SUC TLUXE TTCL YUASAAPCS CENTEL ESSO INET LHK NBC PJW SEAFCO SUSCO TMILL TUF ZMICOASIA CFRESH FE ITD LIVE NCH PM SFP SYNTEC TMT TWFPASK CGS FORTH JAS LOXLEY NINE PPM SIAM TASCO TNL TYM

A ASIA CITY EASON HTECH KASET MJD PL SF SVOA TMI UOBKHAAV BAT-3K CMR EMC HYDRO KC MK POST SGP SWC TNDT UPFAEC BCH CNS EPCO IFS KCAR MOONG PRECHA SIMAT SYNEX TNPC UWCAEONTS BEAUTY CPL F&D IHL KDH MPIC PRIN SLC TBSP TOPP VAROAFC BGT CRANE FNS ILING KTC MSC Q-CON SMIT TCCC TPAC VTEAGE BLAND CSP FOCUS INOX KWH NC QLT SMK TEAM TPP WAVEAH BOL CSR FPI IRC LALIN NIPPON RCI SOLAR TGCI TR WGAI BROCK CTW FSS IRCP LEE NNCL RCL SPC TIC TTI WINAJ BSBM DEMCO GENCO IT MATCH NTV ROJNA SPG TIES TVD WORKAKR CHARAN DNA GFM JMART MATI OSK RPC SRICHA TIW TVIALUCON CHUO DRACO GJS JMT MBAX PAE SCBLIF SSC TKS TWZANAN CI EA GLOBAL JTS MDX PATO SCP STA TMC UBISARIP CIG EARTH HFT JUTHA PRINC PICO SENA SUPER TMD UEC

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 - 100 Excellent

80 - 89 Very Good

70 - 79 Good

60 - 69 Satisfactory

50 - 59 Pass

Below 50 No logo given N/A

รายงานการประเมนิการก ากบัดแูลกจิการ (CGR) โดยสมาคมสง่เสรมิสถาบนักรรมการบรษิทัไทย 2556 Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)

in 2013.

5

17 OCT 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road,

Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1

Silom Rd., Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok

159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703,

Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana,

Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-

21

02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th

Flr., Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road,

Arunamarin, Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office

Tower, 22nd Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road,

Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower,

22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-

Trad Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District,

Muang District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 44 Vachiraprakarn Road, Bangplasoi, Muang Chonburi,

Chonburi 20000

038-274-533 038-275-168

Chaseongsao

233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung

Sub-District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591