1

05 Sep 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Christmas comes in September Following yesterday’s dip, expect a more than offsetting increase in the SET

today, as the local and global stars align. Locally strong consumer

confidence figures as well as further indications of the country moving

forward should boost market sentiments. Globally, the ECB’s dramatic QE

should see another strong round of emerging markets rally although market

players may need time to digest the news about ECB’s bold actions this time

around.

Factors to watch

Local issues:

Consumer confidence highest in 13 months. The University of the Thai

Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported Thursday that the consumer

confidence index rose to 80.1 for August, the highest in 13 months. It was only

in May when the index went up from 67.8 to 70.7 that the index increased for

the first time in 14 months. Factors cited for August were increased political

stability, specifically the royal endorsement of Gen Prayuth as the PM, and

the reassuring economic outlook, notably the state planning agency’s forecast

of 3.5-4.5% growth and the MPC’s decision to maintain rate at 2% to aid

recovery. (Bangkok Post) Comment: Based on the survey of 2,252

respondents, confidence in employment opportunity rose from 71.7

points to 73.6 and confidence in future incomes improved from 94.6 to

96.4 points. The specific areas of improvement underlie that this

improved confidence figure is likely to be matched by increased

consumption expenditure.

SEC loosens capital regulations for banks. Banks are expected to speed

up the launch of additional Tier 2 capital instruments after the SEC announced

that it will allow banks to offer such instruments to retail investors. Previously

they could be offered only to institutional investors and wealthy clients. The

regulation aims to strengthen banks’ capital as many of their subordinated

notes are set to expire next year. The Tier 2 instruments under Basel III will

have a floor conversion price of 50% of the banks’ common stock price at the

offering period and will also apply to additional Tier 1 instruments with a

condition in which holders must convert them into common shares if the banks

face financial problems. (The Nation)

Yingluck not charged. The Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) yesterday

refused to indict Yingluck for dereliction of duty in failing to deal with corruption

and losses in the rice-pledging scheme, citing insufficient evidence. Instead

the OAG called for a joint panel with NACC to be established to re-investigate

the case, with representatives set to be appointed within the next two weeks,

with no timeframe for the committee to complete its work. (Bangkok Post)

Prayuth to first focus on ASEAN leaders. Yesterday the Foreign Ministry

permanent secretary said PM Prayuth would prioritize ASEAN countries when

embarking on overseas trip to introduce himself. Similarly, Foreign Minister

Tanasak Patima-pragorn’s first foreign visit in an official capacity is scheduled

for China’s Nanning for the ASEAN-China Expo in the middle of September.

(The Nation)

KBS admits that its revenue and net profits this year will remain unchanged

from the power plant project postponement while global sugar price is

dropping resulted from oversupply. By the way, the Mitsui group is about to

increase its stake to 16.7% via warrant exercise. (Biznews)

TUF acquired 100% of French company MerAlliance, a leading European

smoked salmon producer with annual sales of US$220mn (Bt7bn). The deal,

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Thailand Research Department:

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon Tel: 02 680 5041 Mr. Thunj Chantramonklasri Tel: 02 680 5077

Mr. Alex Manoonpol Tel: 02 680 5042 Mr. Traikun Kitimahakun Tel: 02 680 5043 Mr. Narudon Rusme Tel: 02 680 5056 Mr. Napat Siworapong Tel: 02 680 5094

Ms. Sukanya Leelarwerachai Tel: 02 680 5331

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,583.27 +3.5 +0.2

SET50 1,058.83 +2.0 +0.2

SET P/E (x) 18.3

SET P/BV (x) 2.3

SET Div. Yield (%) 2.9

Dow Jones 17,069.58 -8.7 -0.1

S&P 500 1,997.65 -3.1 -0.2

NASDAQ 4,562.29 -10.3 -0.2

UK 6,877.97 +4.4 +0.1

Germany 9,724.26 +97.8 +1.0

France 4,494.94 +73.1 +1.7

Japan 15,676.18 -52.2 -0.3

South Korea 2,056.26 +5.1 +0.2

Hong Kong 25,297.92 -20.0 -0.1

China 2,306.86 +18.2 +0.8

Taiwan 9,428.89 -21.5 -0.2

Singapore 3,346.34 -2.4 -0.1

Malaysia 1,869.21 +4.3 +0.2

Indonesia 5,205.32 -18.8 -0.4

Philippines 7,204.11 -1.9 -0.0

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 4,788 7,294 -2,506

Proprietary 4,755 4,083 671

Foreign 9,937 8,926 1,011

Individuals 33,416 32,592 824

Total Trading Value 52,895 Btm

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

KTB 1,960 23.90 +0.4

KBANK 1,489 236.00 +2.6

SAWAD 1,477 22.00 +0.5

BANPU 1,370 34.50 0.0

PTT 1,363 331.00 +1.2

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 94.45 -1.1 -1.1

Brent Crude 101.83 -0.9 -0.9

Gold 1,266.50 -3.8 -0.3

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 32.09 +0.1 +0.3

EUR/USD 1.29 -0.0 -1.6

USD/JPY 105.26 +0.5 +0.4

USD/CNY 6.14 -0.0 -0.0

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05 Sep 2014

Daily Market Outlook

which is expected to close next quarter, is a strategic driver for TUF. The

company aims to leverage MerAlliance's position as a leading smoked salmon

player in Europe and its strong growth track record to expand its base within

the chilled seafood category in Europe. The addition of MerAlliance will be a key step towards TUF's goal to double the group's revenue by 2020. This is

the first in a series of deals that the company expects to make over the coming

months. It is expected to contribute to TUF's earnings by increasing TUF's

group revenues by an estimated 5-6%. (The Nation)

BJC plans to open 205 B’s Mart convenience stores by the end of 2018 at a

cost of Bt1bn. The new store openings would bring the number of B’s mart

convenience stores to 300. (Bangkok Post)

Global issues:

New round of emerging markets rally? The ECB on Thursday made a bold

moves to remedy weakening growth in the euro zone. Three policy rates were

cut by 10 basis points, leaving the deposit facility at negative 20 basis points.

However, the most important move is that it surprisingly unveiled an asset-

backed security purchase program to be launched and detailed in October,

apparently moving closer to an outright QE with sovereign bonds being bought

on the secondary market. ECB President Mario Draghi said the aim was to

expand the bank's balance sheet back to the heights reached in early 2012,

which equates to a rise of around 50% or 1 trillion euros in new assets.

While the positive impact of these exercises on the real economies in Europe

will take time to happen, the side effect are expected to occur sooner through

the weakening euro. It will be good for carry trade using the euro from now

on. If an asset has a higher yield than euro-denominated ones, it will benefit

from increased flows from investors borrowing in euros and making bets

elsewhere. Notable beneficiaries will be emerging markets and buyers of risk

and financial assets. We expect another strong round of emerging markets

rally despite not anytime soon. (Reuters)

USA

US equities investors take caution. Wall Street followed Europe’s lead and

opened 0.5% higher with the S&P hitting a new all-time high at 2,011. Talks

of funds looking to moevve out of US equitise and into European strocks

however, led to Wall Street reversing lower during the rest of the session. The

S&P closed 0.15% lower. The US dollar index closed at 83.77, up 1.1% from

Wednesday close at 82.86.

Europe

Equities markets rejoiced. The strongest reaction came in EUR/USD which

dropped from 1.3130 to below 1.3050 within minutes of the ECB

announcement. The EUR/USC closed 1.2945, down 1.6% on the day. The

DAX closed 1.0% highest, while FT Milan Index increased 2.8% and the

Spanish IBEX rose 1.9%. The European fixed interest markets reacted by

steepening the German bund curve on expectations the move might increase

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05 Sep 2014

Daily Market Outlook

inflation pressure in medium to long term. The 2-year bund yield eased to

minus 0.061% while the 10 year edged up to 0.96% (BBC, Reuters)

Commodities

It seemed the appreciating US$ overwhelmed the unexpectedly aggressive

ECB easing, and gold fell 0.7% to 1,261. Despite US data showing a bigger

drawdown in US Crude oil inventories NYMEX crude fell 1.0% to US$94.5 and

Brent fell to US$101. This could be due to some appreciation, and expectation

of further appreciation in the US$, and also abating concerns over the Russia-

Ukraine crisis.

Date Regions Economic Indicators

8-Sep-14 CNY Export, Import, Trade Balance (Aug)

9-Sep-14 JPY Consumer Confidence (Aug)

11-Sep-14 CNY CPI, PPI (Aug)

USA Jobless Claim

12-Sep-14

EU Unemployment (Q2)

Industrial Production (Jul)

USA Retail Sales (Aug)

Pre Consumer Sentiment (Sep)

Date XD

5-Sep-14

SCB 1.5 Baht Cash

SCB-P 1.5 Baht Cash

TAPAC 0.04 Baht Cash

TNPF 0.1875 Baht Cash

8-Sep-14

BAY 0.4 Baht Cash

BECL 0.8 Baht Cash

EASTW 0.21 Baht Cash

9-Sep-14

BANPU 0.5 Baht Cash

BBL 2 Baht Cash

KBANK 0.5 Baht Cash

KKP 0.5 Baht Cash

SSPF 0.14 Baht Cash

TIP 0.5 Baht Cash

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05 Sep 2014

Daily Market Outlook

ADVANC BTS GRAMMY MCOT PTT SC SSI TMBAOT CIMBT HANA MINT PTTEP SCB SSSC TNITYASIMAR CK HEMRAJ NKI PTTGC SCC SVI TOPBAFS CPF ICC NOBLE QH SCSMG SYMC TRCBANPU CPN INTUCH PAP RATCH SE-ED TCAP TRUEBAY CSL IRPC PG ROBINS SIM THAI TTWBBL DRT IVL PHOL RS SIS THCOM TVOBCP DTAC KBANK PR S&J SITHAI THRE UVBECL EASTW KKP PRANDA SAMART SNC TIP VGIBKI EGCO KTB PS SAMTEL SPALI TISCO WACOALBROOK ERW LPN PSL SAT SPI TKT

2S ASP CHOW GBX JUBILE LRH NMG PPP SINGER TCP TOG UACACAP AYUD CM GC KBS LST NSI PREB SIRI TF TPC UMIAF BEC CNT GFPT KCE MACO NWR PRG SKR TFD TPCORP UMSAHC BFIT CPALL GL KGI MAJOR OCC PT SMT TFI TPIPL UPAIT BH CSC GLOW KKC MAKRO OFM PYLON SNP THANA TRT UPOICAKP BIGC DCC GOLD KSL MBK OGC QTC SPCG THANI TRU UTAMANAH BJC DELTA GSTEL KWC MBKET OISHI RASA SPPT THIP TSC VIBHAAMARIN BLA DTC GUNKUL L&E MFC PB SABINA SSF TICON TSTE VIHAMATA BMCL ECL HMPRO LANNA MFEC PDI SAMCO STANLY TIPCO TSTH VNGAP BWG EE HTC LH MODERN PE SCCC STEC TK TTA VNTAPCO CCET EIC IFEC LHBANK MTI PF SCG SUC TLUXE TTCL YUASAAPCS CENTEL ESSO INET LHK NBC PJW SEAFCO SUSCO TMILL TUF ZMICOASIA CFRESH FE ITD LIVE NCH PM SFP SYNTEC TMT TWFPASK CGS FORTH JAS LOXLEY NINE PPM SIAM TASCO TNL TYM

A ASIA CITY EASON HTECH KASET MJD PL SF SVOA TMI UOBKHAAV BAT-3K CMR EMC HYDRO KC MK POST SGP SWC TNDT UPFAEC BCH CNS EPCO IFS KCAR MOONG PRECHA SIMAT SYNEX TNPC UWCAEONTS BEAUTY CPL F&D IHL KDH MPIC PRIN SLC TBSP TOPP VAROAFC BGT CRANE FNS ILING KTC MSC Q-CON SMIT TCCC TPAC VTEAGE BLAND CSP FOCUS INOX KWH NC QLT SMK TEAM TPP WAVEAH BOL CSR FPI IRC LALIN NIPPON RCI SOLAR TGCI TR WGAI BROCK CTW FSS IRCP LEE NNCL RCL SPC TIC TTI WINAJ BSBM DEMCO GENCO IT MATCH NTV ROJNA SPG TIES TVD WORKAKR CHARAN DNA GFM JMART MATI OSK RPC SRICHA TIW TVIALUCON CHUO DRACO GJS JMT MBAX PAE SCBLIF SSC TKS TWZANAN CI EA GLOBAL JTS MDX PATO SCP STA TMC UBISARIP CIG EARTH HFT JUTHA PRINC PICO SENA SUPER TMD UEC

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 - 100 Excellent

80 - 89 Very Good

70 - 79 Good

60 - 69 Satisfactory

50 - 59 Pass

Below 50 No logo given N/A

รายงานการประเมนิการก ากบัดแูลกจิการ (CGR) โดยสมาคมสง่เสรมิสถาบนักรรมการบรษิทัไทย 2556 Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)

in 2013.

5

05 Sep 2014

Daily Market Outlook

Branch Address Phone Fax

Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road,

Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

02-680-5000 02-680-5111

Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1

Silom Rd., Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1

Asok

159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703,

Sukhumvit 21 Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana,

Bangkok 10110

02-261-1314-

21

02-261-1328

Pinklao

7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th

Flr., Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road,

Arunamarin, Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

02-884-7333 02-884-7357,

02-884-7367

Chaengwattana

99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office

Tower, 22nd Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road,

Bang Talad, Pakkred, Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2300 02-8353006

Chaengwattana 2

9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower,

22nd Flr.,

Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,

Nonthaburi 11120

02-119-2388 02-119-2399

Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-

Trad Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540

02-106-7345 02-105-2070

Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District,

Muang District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen

40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

Chonburi 44 Vachiraprakarn Road, Bangplasoi, Muang Chonburi,

Chonburi 20000

038-274-533 038-275-168

Chaseongsao

233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung

Sub-District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591