Daily FX Str Europe 29 July 2011

8/6/2019 Daily FX Str Europe 29 July 2011

1/8

Foreign Exchange London 08:00

FX Daily Strategist: Europe

EURUSD vs. 1-YrX-Currency Basis Swap

Jul

10

Sep Nov Jan

11

Mar May Jul

Basis

Points

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

EUR

/USD

1.250

1.275

1.300

1.325

1.350

1.375

1.400

1.425

1.450

1.475

1.500

Source : Reuters Ecowin Pro : There has beenno strong evidence of dollar funding pressuresemerging as the US debt ceiling impassecontinues, but if the back up in August-maturityT.Bill yield yesterday were to translate through tothe likes of X-Currency basis swaps on fears theUS could default, EURUSD would quickly besubject to additional downward pressure.

This is not classified as objective research. Please refer to important information at the end of the report.http://www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com London: +44(0)20 7595 8086 NY: +1 212 841 2408 Sing.: +65 6210 3263/3347

GMT Country Release Mkt Last

07:00 ES (Jul)HICP Flash %(y/y)

3.0 3.0

07:30 SE (Q2) GDP Prel % (y/y)07:30 SE (Q2) GDP Prel % (q/q) 0.6 1.208:00 IT (Jun) PPI % (m/m) -0.108:00 IT (Jun) PPI % (y/y) 4.5

08:30 GB (Jun)Net Consumer Crbn GBP

0.25 0.2

08:30 GB (Jun) Mortgage Approv 46200 45900

09:00 EU (Jul)HICP (Flash) %(y/y)

2.7 2.7

09:00 IT (Jul)HICP (Prel) %(y/y)

2.8 3.0

09:00 IT (Jul)HICP (Prel) %(m/m)

-1.0 0.1

09:00 IT (Jul) CPI (NIC, Prel) %(m/m)

0.2 0.1

09:00 IT (Jul)CPI (NIC, Prel) %(y/y)

2.6 2.7

12:30 USGDP (Adv) %(saar q/q)

1.7 1.8

12:30 US Employment Cost % (y/y) 2.0

12:30 USEmployment Cost% (q/q)

0.5 0.6

12:30 USGDP Deflator (A

2.0 1.9

T.Bill yield rise and evidence of Money Market Fund cashhoarding raises risk of liquidity squeeze as US debtceiling impasses persist.

Risk that CHFJPY could finally start falling

US Q1 GDP, EZ July HICP, head a busy data calendar.

Another day passes with no sign of progress towards resolving theUS debt ceiling impasse. Expectations were so low heading intoThursday that markets werent roiled as much as was the case onWednesday, though the FT picked up on the news that the yieldon T.Bills maturing on August 4 jumped to 20bp versus 7bp onrecently issued 3-month bills. This is a clear sign of fear that theUS Treasury may fail to meet redemptions on time in the

coming week. This therefore ignored speculation that thePresident might invoke the 14th Amendment to issue an executiveorder to increase the debt ceiling regardless of a deal in the Houseor the Senate. The news fits with evidence that some MoneyMarket funds have started hoarding liquidity since Monday,provisioning against redemption demand in the event of a USdefault (moving beyond precaution to deal just with a single-agency ratings downgrade and which we now think is close tobeing priced in).

There were no parallel signs of stress in the likes of EUR cross-currency basis swaps, but it does have us speculating whetherliquidity hoarding will be a key feature of Fridays market on thepremise that we may well come in to work on Monday (August 1)to find a deal has not yet been struck to lift the debt ceiling. We

therefore flag risks that the USD could draw support from thebeginnings of a liquidity squeeze. While we have no doubt thatcentral bank swap lines quietly renewed among the worldsmajor central banks last month would be mobilised in the eventof severe liquidity stress, this would almost certainly not be untilafter market stresses had started boosting the dollar (forcedbuying of what had become too expensive to borrow).

Also with an eye on weekend/Monday morning event risk, andafter Brazils move this week to impose punitive taxes on BRL FXinflows, we are on guard for a more meaningful correction inCHFJPY. We remain sceptical of BoJ intervention anytime soonother than in the context of another very disorderly move lowersuch as we saw in March, while evidence that the Swiss economy

is now creaking under the weight of exceptional CHF strength maymeans the Swiss authorities are not a million miles away fromannouncing some form of capital control. The extent of shortUSDCHF exposure also means that a dollar liquidity squeezecould also see USDCHF jump higher.

There is plenty of top drawer data to while away the time until thenext act of the US debt ceiling drama plays out, uppermost beingUS Q2 GDP and where we are below market looking at 1.0%vs. the 1.8% consensus. If growth proves not to have evenrecorded a 1% handle the dollar should suffer, Chicago PMI(expected to show a small fall) and the final University of MichiganCSI (seem rising slightly) will also be of interest. Eurozone datais thick on the ground and where the first July CPI estimate is

probably the highlight. After German CPI surprised to the upsidethis week, risk is that the EZ one does likewise vs. the 2.7%(unchanged) consensus. EUR should derive some support viaECB expectations were this to be the case.
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2/8

NEWS

Europe:

The IMFs board held an informal board meeting tobrief directors on Europe's new Greek financing deal,according to a person familiar with the matter. Nodecisions were taken at the meeting. Rather, directorswere able to press management on exactly what wasagreed to last week and what details are still left to behashed out. (Reuters)

France is calling for speedy implementation of thelatest Eurozone bail-out plan for Greece, to bolsterflagging confidence in the deal and stymie marketspeculators betting against its success. The 17members of the eurozone must shorten the timetable toensure there is no room for speculators. They have to

realise there is no future in that. That is what France isdoing, said Franois Baroin, French finance minister.(FT)

ECBs Mersch: Risk of larger impact of importedinflation; Euro zone monetary policy still accommodative;Continued euro zone economic recovery, albeit slowerpace; Talk of end of euro unfounded. (Reuters)

ECB survey shows sharp slowdown in lendingconfidence; Tightening of lending rules expected tocontinue; Will add to ECB's fears of slowing economy.(Reuters)

Greek FinMin Evangelos Venizelos said Europe'sproblem is wider than 3 bailout countries.

Italy's Agriculture MinisterSaverio Romano dismissedrumours on Thursday that Economy Minister GiulioTremonti was preparing to resign, saying the talkseemed to be without any foundation.

The rise in Italy's borrowing costs may put in doubtits participation in the next tranche of the Greekbailout in September, euro zone officials said. In aconference call of euro zone finance officials onThursday, during which the next tranche of emergencyloans for Greece was discussed, Italy said it might have

to use the "step-out" option in September if its ownfinancing costs rise higher the those on the Greek loans.(Reuters)

United States

US Initial Jobless Claims beat expectations, coming inat 398k vs. consensus of 415k. The previous weeksnumber was revised higher from 418k to 422k.

US pending home sales rose 2.4%m/m and 17.3%y/yin June.

The Boehner Budget Plan is set for vote in Congress,

but Senator Harry Reid says that house debt plan will bedefeated in the Senate.

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday set criteria forbanks and savings associations to be counterpartieseligible to participate in reverse repurchase transactions.(Reuters)

S&Ps Chambers says USD will remain as key reservecurrency under any scenario for a long time. (Reuters)

Feds Lackersays more Fed stimulus could life inflationnot growth and pace of the recovery has beendisappointing. Lacker also says that unemployment willremain high. (Reuters)

Feds Williams says US default must be avoided evenas nation comes to terms with fiscal problems. Hementions that the US recovery is stuck in second gearand pace of jobs growth has slowed to a crawl. He alsosays that the Feds policies may not have been enough

to usher in robust recovery, but did prevent deflation.(Reuters)

Non-executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley, StephenRoach says that Senior Chinese officials are appalledby the impasse among US politicians on raising thenations debt ceiling to avoid a default. (Bloomberg)

Australia/ New Zealand/Canada

New Zealand Building consents unexpectedly pulledbacked by 1.4% over June after a revised upwards2.4% rebound in May and contrary to forecasts centeredon a 3.0% bounce. Excluding the volatile apartments

component, issuances fell by an even larger 4.5% paceversus a mere 0.9% rise prior. On the year consentswere down 22.5%. (IGM)

Australias Private sector credit growth unexpectedlycontracted by 0.1% over June, contrary to mktforecasts on a 0.4% gain and after a 0.3% rise in May.On the yr, credit growth rose by 2.7% vs 3.1% prior.Business credit contributed to the month on weakness, todecline by a steep 0.7% after May's flat reading.Otherwise housing sector credit rose by milder 0.3% vs0.5% prior whilst credit growth for other personal fell by0.4% after dipping 0.1% prior. (IGM)

Japan

Japanese prelim industrial production gained by aweaker than expected 3.9% pace over June,disappointing less than forecasts on a 4.5% rise and afteran impressive 6.2% gain in May (most in a near 60yrs).However predictions on manufacturers output, the corecomponent of production came in better thanexpected; with July's forecast revised up 2.2% to vs aprelim 0.5% increase. (IGM)

Japanese overall household spending continued to

disappoint over June, rising by a mere 0.8% paceover the mth versus forecasts on a 2.0% rise and after a0.3% decline prior. On the year; spending remainednegative, and fell by a deeper 4.2% pace compared to

Foreign Exchange Strategy Friday, 29 July 2011

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3/8

expectations on a 2.3% fall, and versus a 1.9% decline inMay. (IGM)

Core nationwide inflation in Japan rose positively forthe 3rd month running, albeit at a more modest pace;

with June's nationwide core inflation index rising by0.4% y/y versus a 0.6% gain in May and Apr and slightlylower than forecasts on a 0.5% rise. Ex fuel and food,prices inched up by a further 0.1% y/y to post their 2ndstraight annual rise in over 2yrs. However Tokyo coreJul prices as a more up to date precursor rose by afirmer 0.4% pace (f/c 0.2%) vs 0.1% prior. (IGM)

Japan's unemployment rate nudged back up to 4.6%in June from 4.5% prior, contrary to market forecastson a steady 4.5% reading; but in a positive sign, thejobs-to-applicants ratio rose to 0.63 (f/c 0.61) from 0.61prior, meaning there were now a higher 63 jobs avail per100 workers. (IGM)

Japan Inc. Feels Push to Work Overseas In anadmission that the yen's relentless surge could ultimatelyforce more outsourcing from Japan, some of thecountry's leading technology companies warnedThursday that keeping current levels of production in thecountry could become nearly impossible. (WSJ)

Japan escalates warning on yen to protect recoveryJapan escalated on Friday its warning to markets againsttesting the yen's upside further, with the finance ministrysignalling that Tokyo may not wait for too long with actionif the currency keeps climbing. (Reuters)

Japan Noda: mulling how long Tokyo can ignore yenrise Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said onFriday he will carefully examine how long Tokyo canleave current exchange-rate moves without acting,issuing a strong warning against persistent rises in theyen. (Reuters)

China

China Slams U.S. Over Debt: With Beijing's ChoicesLimited, U.S. Sees Little Change in Its TreasuryPurchases As China criticized U.S. leaders over theirdebt wrangling, a U.S. official said the U.S. doesn't seeany significant change in the pattern of Chinese bondpurchases, reflecting the limited choices Beijing has inmanaging its money. (WSJ)

ADB warns on China slowdown China's growth facesdownward risk in the coming months amid globaleconomic uncertainties and fast-rising domestic inflation,the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Thursday.(China Daily)

Chinas railway ministry plans to withdraw fromregional rail investments partly because of heavydebt, the 21st Century Business Herald reported today,citing three unidentified people. The ministry had a debt-to-equity ratio of 58.24 percent as of the first quarter ofthe year, compared with 46 percent in 2008, according tothe Guangzhou-based newspaper. Tight credit and theremoval of preferrential interest rate loans may also

cause the ministry to pull out of investments, according tothe newspaper. (Bloomberg)

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has tried to quell risingpublic anger by visiting the scene of last weekends

high-speed rail crash and vowing to severelypunish those responsible for the accident that killed39 people and has fuelled concerns about the safety ofthe countrys bullet train system. In an apparent attemptto narrow the focus of the blame, a railway officialpointed the finger at a small research institute in Beijingfor designing a signal system with a severe defect, andthe institute in turn said it would shoulder theresponsibility. (FT)

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority on Thursdayrelaxed some restrictions on local banks' yuantrading, a change bankers say could boost liquidityin the offshore yuan forwards market and aiddevelopment of related derivatives products. Yuandeposits in Hong Kong have been growing rapidly sincemid-2010, fueled by Beijing's efforts to boost the use andcirculation of its currency offshore. Those deposits cameto 550 billion yuan ($85.4 billion) at the end of June, sixtimes the year-earlier total. (WSJ)

Hong Kongs yuan deposits climbed at the slowestpace in 21 months in June as payments to mainlandChina for cross-border trade outstripped thoseflowing into the city, according to the head of the citysde facto central bank. Deposits were 550 billion yuan atthe end of June. That compares with 548.8 billion yuan inMay. (Bloomberg)

SAFE: China does not pursue large-scale reserveholdings, reserve build-up not direct cause ofinflation, pledges to diversify reserve assets, nomention of U.S. debt, pledges to widen channels forcapital outflows. (Reuters)

People's Bank of China fixed the yuan's mid-point at6.4442 against the dollar on Friday, slightly weaker thanThursday's 6.4438. (Reuters)

Other Asia:

South Korea's industrial output rose 6.4% y/y inJune, slowing from revised 8.1% y/y (initial 8.3%)May. The figure was below market f/c of 7.0% andmarked the slowest pace in 9 mths amid slowing exportsof semiconductor chips and consumer electronics. Ex-factory shipments +5.6% y/y in June; retail sales +5.6%y/y in June. Indus production rose 0.7% m/m in June vs1.6% m/m May. (IGM)

Leading index rose 1.7% yoy in June, up from 1.3%in May. The better reading keeps hopes alive for a BoKrate hike on August 11th.

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou said Thursday thatdebt problems in the U.S. and Europe could slowglobal economic growth in the second half of thisyear and may impact Taiwan's export-reliant economy.(WSJ)




4/8

AUDs Future is Rosy Asian FXAppreciation & Sovereign Demand are KeyThe robustness of AUD despite the diminishing of itsyield advantage suggests the real drivers lie elsewhereThe key drivers appear to be robust sovereign demand,

its role as a proxy for Asian FX appreciation and theterms of trade improvement.We believe that AUDUSD will appreciate further towards1.15

The outperformance of AUDUSD relative to expectedinterest rate differentials is not likely to be the catalyst fora sustained pullback on AUD. There has been muchmarket discussion on the breakdown of this traditionalrelationship (chart 1). We suggest that interest ratemarkets are not pricing in sufficient tightening from theRBA. Our economists are calling for a 25 bp hike in Q4assuming that global downside risks do not crystallise.Further tightening is also likely in 2012 if the same

conditions hold in contrast to almost flat marketexpectations. This weeks upside surprise to Q2 CPIrevealed an acceleration in underlying inflation to 2.7%y/y and is likely to nudge higher over the balance of theyear. In contrast, recent weak data in the US suggestlittle potential for a near-term increase in marketexpectations for Fed tightening. Accordingly, we believethere are prospects for the benchmark 2-year yieldspread to move in favour of AUD over coming weeks.Still, the robustness of AUD despite the diminishing of itsyield advantage suggests the real drivers lie elsewhere.

The strong trend higher in Australias terms of tradeappears consistent with the appreciation of AUD (chart2). The commodities boom continues to support the risein prices of exports relative to imports while ongoingstrong demand from Australias major trading partners,including China, should see this trend persist. This dataseries is only released quarterly but more recent CRBdata is consistent with the terms of trade remaining atelevated levels. It is interesting to note that themoderation in Chinas growth indicators since the secondhalf of 2010, especially the PMI, has not produced apullback in AUD. Such a divergence suggests that theimprovement in Australias terms of trade is more broadlybased that merely being a reflection of Chinese growthprospects.

AUD may have become an FX proxy for general Asian

currency appreciation. AUDUSD appears very closelylinked to USDCNY 12-months NDFs and does notappear to have outpaced CNY appreciation (chart 3).This link seems reasonable given Australias geographiclocation and its exposure to emerging Asian economies.Specifically, as official intervention remains a significantrisk from many of the regions central banks there hasbeen very little verbal opposition from Australian officials.The RBA has been capitalising on recent AUD strengthto build official reserve assets but the rise has beenmoderate in recent months standing at AUD 41.1 billionas at the end of June.In our opinion, the strongest rationale behind AUDappreciation remains demand form sovereign funds and

central banks. In a world where both EUR and USD havefaced debt market issues, alternatives such as AUD,CAD, GBP, JPY and SEK continue to benefit. Data on



Chart 1: AU-US 2y yields spread

Source: BNP Paribas

Chart 3: AUDUSD vs. CNY 12m NDFS

Source: BNP Paribas

specific AUD demand is scarce. The official IMF COFERdata for Q1 (IMF COFER Q1 Update EUR Conundrum)

reveals the largest rise by category among countries thatdo report reserve breakdown by currency was among thenon-specific other group of currencies at 12.6% q/q.This category relates to non-USD, EUR, JPY, CHF andGBP G10 holdings. We assume this group pertainsmainly to AUD and CAD but a breakdown is unavailableand also excludes holdings from the largest foreignexchange reserve holder China. Separately, monthlydata from the RBA reports a sharp increase in totalforeign ownership of Commonwealth Securities (chart 4).The total has surged from AUD 57.8 billion at the end of2008 to AUD 191.3 billion as at June 2011.This data series likely underreports total foreign heldsecurities as purchases through local subsidiaries inAustralia are likely excluded from the foreign total.Accordingly, the trend of rising holdings of AUD assetsby foreign reserve managers appears clear.


5/8



In summary, we do not believe the divergence between AUDUSD and relative near-term interest rate expectations will be acatalyst for a sustained AUD pullback. Indeed, the robustness of AUD despite the pullback in its yield advantage suggeststhe real drivers lie elsewhere. In contrast, the ongoing rise in Australias terms of trade supports the currencys appreciationwhile the likely role of AUD as a proxy for Asian appreciation present strong prospects for further appreciation. Finally,reserve manager demand is rising and should continue to remain strong. Strategically, we believe that AUDUSD willcontinue to appreciate beyond new multi-decade highs above 1.10 towards 1.15.


6/8

Daily Currency SummaryG3

EURUSD

While in recent days the US has dominated, price action has turned a tad more nuanced with the EUR under pressure.Weaker data has shifted the focus following last weeks EU Summit to fiscal sustainability longer term explaining the sharpup tick in Spain Sovereign CDS yesterday. Moodys placing Spains credit rating on review for a possible downgrade todaydidnt help, and this in itself at the very least, suggests a neutral EURUSD profile in the near term in the 1.4200-1.4400range. The key data focus today will be Q2 GDP, where our economists look for a weaker reading of 1.0% (consensus at1.8%). We also have the July Eurozone CPI estimate where an upside surprise to the 2.7% consensus (following GermanCPI Wednesday) is likely, though today may unlikely be the day to play ECB tightening expectations via the EUR. EURUSDdid manage to recover from 1.4254 lows Thursday and close back above the 1.4320/30 layer of support, (50,100-day MAs).These levels will be scrutinised today ahead of a hoped for vote on the US debt ceiling this weekend.

USDJPY

Despite a somewhat firmer USD backdrop with risk off, USDJPY looks likely to grind lower, having marked a fresh postearthquake low of 77.46 today. Viewed strictly from an economic point of view, intervention seems likely when you haveleading growth indicators (PMIs) gaining strongly and even CPI inflation moving higher above 0. However, EconomicsMinister Yosanos comment (as per Jiji news) Thursday that intervention in the FX market before August 2nd is unlikelydraws implicit recognition that the JPY strength being seen is down to a weaker USD on account of the debt impasse.

Moreover, the comment that a JPY 1-2trn intervention (recall the solo intervention back in September was near JPY 2 trn)would be hard also underlines the realisation that anything other than a coordinated action will have no lasting impact.

JPYCrosses

EURJPY has come under immense pressure since yesterday following German FinMin Schaeuble comments and the pairhas broken 111.50 support and back down to 110.60. Comments from Economics Minister Yosano that a JPY 1-2 trnintervention would be difficult, and any intervention would be unlikely before Aug 2 suggest that authorities realise that usingunilateral intervention to stop/reverse a USD induced decline in USDJPY remains hard. A sustained move below 110.70(near July 18 low) could see further declines, though clearly the more vulnerable crosses could be Scandies/JPY today.

EUR Bloc

EURGBP

EURGBP is facing some near term pressure with financials under pressure in Europe and has already closed below the 100-dma (now 0.8818) and a break below 0.8745 retracement support from July 18-26 rally) could see the pair come underfurther pressure near term. The July CBI orders were much weaker, and showed price pressures falling; the index of sellingprices fell to levels last seen in mid-2010, hence playing to a dovish BoE view. BOEs Miles reiterated his dovish view saying

he saw a risk of the UK falling back into a recession. Looking ahead, manufacturing and services PMIs (due first week ofAugust) will be important.

EURCHF

Markets outside the USD axis appear to be pricing in sovereign default risk (note the sharp break higher in US SOV CDS tofresh highs) and USDCHF has continued to remain under pressure though the past three sessions has seen the 0.7990level hold very well. While evidence that the Swiss economy is now creaking under the weight of exceptional CHF strength(e.g. June KOF) may means the Swiss authorities are not a million miles away from announcing some form of capital control.The extent of short USDCHF exposure also means that a dollar liquidity squeeze could also see USDCHF at least retracehigher within a 0.8000-0.8150 range near term). Chart wise, down channel support kicks in around 0.7820.

EURNOK

NOK had been under the cosh of late given its relatively less-liquid nature and with the markets now beginning to price therisk of a potential US default with the continued debt impasse in the US. Assuming a default is averted, we still like the NOKlonger term on its good fiscal/ current account characteristics. Moreover, crude oil has been holding up rather well, in partexplaining the stickiness in USDNOK of late. July jobs data on tap Friday.

EURSEK

SEK managed to make a comeback against both the EUR and USD on Thursday. The focus for Sweden will be on the Q2GDP later to which is likely to ease further. A disappointment will lead to further SEK downside. But, with gridlock over theUS debt ceiling, the concern is tighter USD liquidity. SEK is particularly vulnerable given the Swedish banking sector isheavily reliant on short term USD funding. Assuming a default is averted, we still think the SEK will strengthen on its goodcharacteristics. 6.40 will be key for USDSEK on the topside.

USD Bloc

USDCADUSDCAD climber above 0.9500 on Thursday. USDCAD could gain should a broader risk-off (hence USD positive) moveintensify further. The 0.9525/35 highs from last week are important short term resistance. Locally, May GDP figures on Fridaywill be eyed, where an unchanged 2.8% reading is expected.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD was unable to sustain its previous gains on Thursday falling below 1.100. A broader risk off move can leave AUDvulnerable. We maintain our medium term bullish view, further helped by the stronger Q2 core CPI release as we feel there ismuch scope for rate cut pricing in Australia to be wiped out. Beyond 1.1000, the next major medium term resistance is notuntil the 1.1500 level, but we have the 1.1300/1.1320 region (23.6% fibo-projection from March-May) to contend with first.

NZDUSD

RBNZ left rates unchanged on Thursday. The RBNZ noted that the strong NZD reduces the need for more rate rises in the

short term and there was little need to keep the current rate much longer. The key word here is more rate rises; the markethas interpreted this as the RBNZ will likely take back the emergency 50bp cut at the next meeting and then remain on holdafter that. Thus, we see NZDUSD as a buy on dips.




7/8

FX Forecasts*USD Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

EUR/USD 1.50 1.55 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.35 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.34

USD/JPY 78 83 85 90 95 95 95 95 95 95 92

USD/CHF 0.83 0.83 0.90 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 0.97

GBP/USD 1.65 1.68 1.59 1.56 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.70

USD/CAD 0.98 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.00

AUD/USD 1.09 1.13 1.07 1.04 0.99 0.99 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95

NZD/USD 0.82 0.84 0.81 0.80 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.76

USD/SEK 5.93 5.48 5.93 6.21 6.67 6.67 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.92 6.94

USD/NOK 4.98 4.77 5.07 5.26 5.56 5.56 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.77 5.07

EUR Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

EUR/JPY 117 129 123 126 128 128 124 124 124 124 123

EUR/GBP 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.79

EUR/CHF 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.30 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.30

EUR/SEK 8.90 8.50 8.60 8.70 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.30EUR/NOK 7.47 7.40 7.35 7.37 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 6.80

EUR/DKK 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46 7.46

Central Europe Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/PLN 2.60 2.48 2.69 2.75 2.81 2.78 2.85 2.77 2.85 2.85 2.65

EUR/CZK 24.3 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.1

EUR/HUF 275 275 269 265 265 260 260 255 260 260 250

USD/ZAR 6.80 6.60 6.55 6.60 6.50 6.50 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.69

USD/TRY 1.52 1.50 1.56 1.59 1.63 1.65 1.65 1.67 1.69 1.69 1.54

EUR/RON 4.20 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.15 4.10 4.20 4.20 4.10 3.95 3.90

USD/RUB 27.51 27.25 27.86 27.97 28.08 27.65 28.19 27.75 29.07 27.75 27.75

EUR/PLN 3.90 3.85 3.90 3.85 3.80 3.75 3.70 3.60 3.70 3.70 3.55

USD/UAH 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4

EUR/RSD 100 100 98 97 96 95 93 92 91 90 85

Asia Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/SGD 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.13 -----

USD/MYR 2.95 2.90 2.87 2.85 2.83 2.80 2.77 2.75 2.73 2.70 -----

USD/IDR 8400 8300 8200 8100 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 -----

USD/THB 29.50 29.30 29.00 28.70 28.50 28.30 28.00 27.70 27.50 27.50 -----

USD/PHP 42.00 41.50 41.00 40.50 40.00 39.50 39.00 38.50 38.00 38.00 -----

USD/HKD 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 -----

USD/RMB 6.40 6.31 6.25 6.21 6.17 6.13 6.23 6.20 6.17 6.15 -----

USD/TWD 28.00 27.50 27.00 26.70 26.50 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 -----

USD/KRW 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 990 980 970 960 950 -----

USD/INR 44.00 43.50 43.00 42.50 42.00 41.50 41.00 41.00 41.00 41.00 -----

USD/VND 20500 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 -----

LATAM Bloc Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD/ARS 4.18 4.25 4.34 4.43 4.51 4.60 4.69 4.78 4.86 4.95 -----

USD/BRL 1.58 1.55 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.60 1.61 1.62 -----

USD/CLP 450 435 425 430 435 440 442 445 447 450 -----

USD/MXN 11.40 11.10 11.00 10.90 11.00 11.10 11.10 11.17 11.25 11.30 -----

USD/COP 1730 1690 1690 1700 1710 1720 1725 1730 1740 1750 -----

USD/VEF 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 4.29 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 -----

USD/PEN 2.70 2.65 2.63 2.63 2.64 2.66 2.67 2.68 2.69 2.70 -----

Others Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14

USD Index 72.30 70.76 74.87 77.62 80.72 80.72 82.99 82.99 82.99 82.99 79.73

*End Quarter




8/8

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Emerging Markets FX & IR StrategyDrew Brick Head of FX & IR Strategy Asia Singapore 65 6210 3262 [email protected] Loo Thio FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3263 [email protected] Ryan FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3314 [email protected] Poh FX & IR Asia Strategist Singapore 65 6210 3418 [email protected] Qi FX & IR Asia Strategist Shanghai 86 21 2896 2876 [email protected] Pawlowski Head of FX & IR Strategy CEEMEA London 44 20 7595 8195 [email protected] Ahmad FX & IR Asia Strategist London 44 20 7595 8620 [email protected] Isik FX & IR Asia Strategist Istanbul 90 216 635 29 87 [email protected] Diego Donadio FX & IR Latin America Strategist So Paulo 55 11 3841 3421 diego.donadio@@br.bnpparibas.com

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Daily FX Str Europe 29 July 2011

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Transcript of Daily FX Str Europe 29 July 2011