8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 100810

1/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

uesday's focus: No trading. I don't see any compelling information in front of me at the moment. The markets will very likely

main quiet through the FOMC rate decision, scheduled for 1415 EST (1815 GMT). The DAX will have just about 105 minutes

ood trading time left, and my guess is that Bernanke and Co. will not make any surprise announcements. If I see a clear break

ther way and strong interest behind the move, I may decide to jump in at a good level.

rade ideas:

one.

Conservative range H

Conservative range L

The high projection of 6070 for Monday was fairly accurate--

the actual high was 6374. ( I was glad I didn't trade today. The

range was too tight, as expected.) Today, however, I have

almost zero confidence in both my high and low projections.

Remember that only one projection must be hit, not both. I

expect today's range to be subdued until the FOMC rate

decision at 1415 EST.

High Extreme: 6465 (rng high projection)

High primary: 6419 (rng high projection)

Today's High: 6410 (50% ext)

Today's Low: 6280 (HVN, lwr dev't)

Low primary: 6289.5 (rng low projection)

Low Extreme: 6243.2 (dev't low)

My confidence in this range projection is low, because of a

range measurement anomaly and the fact that the numbers

call for an expansion and I'm thinking today will be a

duplication of yesterday's range, or a contraction. FOMC has

that effect on my studies.

Aggressive range L

ily DAXurnalAug 2010

Monday, 09 August 2010

DAX 30min study

Aggressive range H

I'm guessing this will be a relatively quiet day up until the FOMC release. German CPI has potential to move the

DAX, but I'm not interested. I will wait until after the FOMC statement to see how things develop. An inside day

usually points to an expansion, but I'm guessing a duplication of yesterday's range (+/- 10%) or a contraction.

Range studies: Aggressive 111; conservative 65; H 6410/20 L 6280/70 Calendar: GE CPI, FOMC rate decision

7POC 3POC

HVN

3d profile

HVN

HVN

8/9/2019 Daily DAX Journal 100810

2/2The Lonely TraderDisclaimer: All information is provided as ma rket commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Loneexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information

results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your

Range Studies for DAX 0910 Monday, 09 August 2

Previous day range 108.0 Comments:

Previous day pattern ID 0459 GMT: Dilemma. Use the true range, which is 108 points, or the H-L range for

today, which is 53.5. This is the problem when the settlement price is so far away from

the last traded price. The danger in considering what to do is that I "game" the range

projection method -- in which case it becomes an arbitrary exercise. In this case, I'm

going with the true range. HVN: 6344, 6335, 6300, 6280. LVN: 6320, 6270.

Number of occurrences 22

(last 200 days)

Avg range after WS 141.4%

> 152.5