8/7/2019 Daily DAX Journal 070410

1/2The Lonely Trader Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Traderexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Pastresults are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.

iday's focus: Bias continues to be long, considering the current constructive position of the index. However, a near term topoks like it is in place and will hold tomorrow. Data releases will likely conform to expectations, so I do not anticipate any strongoves as a result. Should something unexpected occur, the aggressive range estimates have a good probability of holding. No real

onvincing trade ideas for me. Because the close is in the middle of the last two days' distribution, volume will be the key indicatoroing forward.

ly DAXrnal

Apr 2011

USG shutdown looms. ECB raises rates as expected. IMF warns on oil prices (today CLK1 at $111). Treasuries fall,gold and silver rally to new highs. Markets are projecting risks of inflation, with food and fuel prices rising. Yet,housing prices are flat (or falling) across the board. Commercial construction is also slow. No big data releases tmw.Range studies : Aggressive 135; conservative 55; Extreme estimate H 7310 L 7132 Calendar : Ger Current Account, trade data

No new development here, butan extension of the range witha fairly normal distribution anda lower close (-0.50%), whichsuggests Friday will close withinthe three day distribution.

Runaway gap from 7015 to 6980 may be filled in the next 8 trading days. (32% prob.)

Trade ideas: Short -- On a failure below 7245. Effectivevolume must confirm as aggregatenegative, or if positive, balance mustreverse strongly. Target 7205. Confidenceis low.Short -- On decreasing volume at 6266. EVbalance will likely be very positive for theday, so decrease must be pronounced.Will prefer a strong negative delta for thesignal time period. Target 7235 and then7205, depending on the price action.Confidence is low.Long -- On a push above 7266, withincreasing volume. Wait for a pullback andtarget 7300, depending on price action.Long -- On a bounce at 7200 or 7192, onincreasing volume. Would prefer a strongreversal from negative to positive delta.Confidence is low.

FDAX June 2011

Conservative range H

Aggressive range H

Aggressive range L

Conservative range L

As always, keep CL, ES and 6E price action in view. Wait for signal and volumeconfirmation.

8/7/2019 Daily DAX Journal 070410

2/2The Lonely Trader Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Traderexpressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Pastresults are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.

Range Studies for DAX 0611 For Friday, 08 April 2011Previous day range 68.5 Comments:

Previous day pattern ID 0035 GMT: The opening gap was filled within the first 60 minutes of trade, with initialresistance at the previous day's point of control. Stronger resistance appeared at theprevious day's high, with the rest of today's trading occurring below VWAP as sentimentweighed across all markets. Tomorrow's trading will likely close within the weekly range,or just above.

Number of occurrences 28(last 200 days)

Avg range after WS 169.9%> 116.5

Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studiesSan Diego Area, USAEmail Blog

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