Daily Campus - What It Would Take for Texas to Go Blue

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What it would take for Texas to go blueBy Nathan Mitzer, Staff Columnist, [email protected]

Published:Monday, February 1, 2010

Updated: Monday, February 1, 2010

In the weeks since Massachusetts voters handed the Democratic party a stinging political rebuke

by electing a little-known Republican state senator to fill the US Senate seat previously held by

Ted Kennedy, I have been debating which state from a political perspective would best constitute

Massachusetts-in-reverse.

In other words, where would a Democratic victory during a Republican administration send the

equivalent shockwaves through the nations body politic?

Certainly, states such as Utah and Idaho, which rarely elect Democrats to statewide office, would

be formidable contenders. But they are comparatively small states, not nearly as populous or

demographically diverse as Massachusetts. Then it occurred to me: I need look no further than

right here, the Lone Star State.

Lets look at the record: Other than Lieutenant Governor Bob Bullock, the last time a Democrat

was elected to statewide office in Texas occurred in 1990, two decades ago, when Ann Richardsbecame governor for one term. Since that time, Republicans have won every election for the six

major statewide offices: governor, lieutenant governor, two US senators, attorney general, and

comptroller.

Even more distressing for Democrats is that they now control zero of the 29 elected statewide

offices in Texas, including members of the state Supreme Court and Railroad Commission. No

Democratic Presidential candidate has carried the state since Jimmy Carter, 34 years ago.

Compare that to Ronald Reagan, who carried Massachusetts twice!

If Democrats were going to make any inroads, 2008 would have been a prime opportunity, with a

popular candidate atop the ticket and the party poised to add to its majority in the House and

Senate. Indeed, Barack Obama was able to carry seven of the eight most populous states. The one

exception was Texas, where McCain prevailed by nearly a million votes. In the US Senate race in

Texas, Republican John Cornyn won with a similar majority. Not only do Republicans always win

here, they always win big.

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By contrast, Republicans controlled the governors mansion in liberal Massachusetts from 1990

through 2006. Apparently, the Bay State has offered Republican candidates better odds of success

than Texas has afforded to Democrats.

This was not always the case. Far from it. From Reconstruction through the 1950s, Democrats

controlled every significant political office in Texas, much as they did throughout the states of the

Confederacy. Back then, the real election was the Democratic primary; the general election was

considered a mere formality.

Indeed, it was said that in Texas, as well as in other southern states, the only way for a Democrat

to lose to a Republican was to be caught in bed either with a dead woman or a live man.

Things started to change in the early 1960s when Republican John Tower won a special election to

fill the Senate seat vacated by the newly-elected vice president, Lyndon Johnson. By the 1970s,

Texas had become a Republican stronghold which in the last 20 years has evolved into astranglehold.

That Texas would become so GOP-dominant is rather curious when considering its demographics.

According to the 2010 edition of The Almanac of American Politics, less than a majority of the

state, 48.3%, is Caucasian. Latinos and African-Americans, which usually vote for Democratic

candidates by large majorities, are nearly equally represented at just under 47%.

Despite the fact that the Caucasian percentage of the states population has shrunk in the past

decade, GOP majorities have remained steady and in many instances have expanded.

While some political observers have forecast that the states growing Latino population threatens

Republican electoral dominance, recent results seem to belie this.

How can the Democratic Party turn the electoral tide in Texas? In my column last week, I argued

that the upset in Massachusetts would not have occurred had the Democratic candidate, Martha

Coakley, been more attuned to her constituents. Therein, I believe, lies perhaps the only chance

for Democrats to viably compete in Texas.

In the period between 1970 and the early 90s, Democrats that were elected on a statewide basis

were imbued with center-right political leanings.

Those such as Mark White, Lloyd Bentsen (before his leftward swing upon being chosen as

Michael Dukakiss running mate), Bill Hobby, and Bob Bullock were able to carry the state

because their stance on the issues closely mirrored those of their Republican opponent--and the

voters.


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Texans are, by and large, traditional, conservative-leaning, and increasingly leery of an expansive

tax-and-spend national government. Democrats such as Bob Bullock, a conservative legislator,

and Bill Hobby, who came from a distinguished Texas political family, fit right in with Texans

outlook on social and economic issues and emulated their distrust of Washington.

Recently, however, Texas Democratic candidates have adopted more center-left--and even

sometimes liberal positions--on many issues. Republicans have prospered by tagging their

opponents as being out of touch with Texans and representative of the Washington political

establishment.

For Democrats to have any chance to stem the tide of Republican dominance, they will need to

present viable, conservative-oriented candidates, not the tax-and-spend left-leaning aspirants that

have been trounced here even in years when Democrats did well nationally.

If nothing else, their 0-29 record should convey to Democrats a loud and clear message that their

current electoral strategy is not working.

Nathan Mitzner is a junior risk management insurance major. He can be reached for comment

at [email protected].


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