Daftar Pustaka_2005tef.pdf

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Lampiran 1. Deskripsi Ikan

a. Ikan bawal hitam

Nama Indonesia : Bawal Hitam Nama Inggris : Black Pomfret Nama Latin : Formio niger Deskripsi : Ordo: Percomorphi, famili: Formionidae, genus: Formio.

Bentuk tubuh ikan ini lebar dan gepeng. Bentuk sisik sikloid, sisik garis rusuk kurang lebih 100. Sirip punggung berjari-jari kuat, 2 sirip yang terpisah, yang dimuka bejari-jari keras dan yang di belakang berjari-jari lemah, kadang dengan satu jari-jari keras di muka. Sirip dubur berjari-jari keras 1 dan 35-40 berjari-jari lemah. Sirip ekor bercagak kuat, terdapat sisik duri pada bagian batang ekor. Sirip perut kecil dan tidak terdapat pada ikan dewasa. Termasuk ikan buas, makanannya ikan-ikan kecil, dan Krustasea. Hidup di perairan agak jauh dari pantai sampai kedalaman 100 m. Bergerombol, kadang-kadang bersama-sama ikan layang di sekitar rumpon. Warna tubuh bagian atas abu-abu sawo matang, sedikit keputihan pada bagian bawahnya. Ukuran: ikan bawal hitam panjangnya bisa mencapai 30 cm dan umumnya tertangkap pada ukuran 20 cm

Daerah Sebar : Daerah penyebaran ikan bawal hitam hampir terdapat di seluruh perairan Indonesia terutama Laut Jawa, Selat Malaka, sepanjang perairan Kalimantan, Sulawesi Selatan, Laut Arafuru, ke utara sampai Teluk Bengal, Teluk Siam, sepanjang Laut Cina Selatan dan Philipina. Pada umumnya ikan ini hidup pada dasar perairan yang berlumpur, terutama di daerah muara-muara sungai.

b. Ikan bawal putih

Nama Indonesia : Bawal Putih

Nama Inggris : Silver Pomfret

Nama Latin : Pampus argentus

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Deskripsi : Ordo: Percomorphi, Sub. Ordo: Stromatoidea, famili: Stromateidae, genus: Pampus. Bentuk tubuh ikan ini sangat lebar seperti ketupat gepeng. Bentuk sisik sikloid, sangat kecil, gampang dikelupas dan sisik-sisik ini meluas sampai dasar semua sirip. Sirip punggung tidak sama panjang, asalnya di depan pertengahan badan, tetapi menjadi sirip pektoral, didahului oleh 5-10 duri pendek yang menyerupai pisau, berjari-jari lemah 38 sampai 43. Sirip dubur tidak sama panjang, berjari-jari lemah 38-43. Sirip ekor bercagak kuat dengan lembaran bawah lebih panjang. Termasuk pemakan plankton, makanannya plankton kasar (invertebrata). Hidup di perairan yang dasarnya lumpur sampai kedalaman 100 m, sering masuk air payau dan membentuk gerombolan besar. Warna tubuhnya abu keunguan di bagian atas, dan putih perak di bagian bawah. Sirip-siripnya sedikit gelap. Ukuran: umumnya panjang ikan bawal putih yang tertangkap adalah 15-20 cm dan panjangnya bisa mencapai 29 cm

Daerah Sebar : Ikan bawal putih hidup pada perairan pantai, payau bahkan dapat hidup di perairan tawar. Jenis ikan ini hidup di dasar perairan yang keadaan dasarnya berlumpur, sampai kedalaman 100 m dan cenderung berada pada kedalaman 15-25 m. Penyebaran ikan ini meliputi pantai timur Indonesia, Laut Jawa, sebagian timur Sumatera, pantai Laut Cina Selatan, Philipina, bagian barat Teluk Persia dan bagian Utara Jepang.

c. Ikan Kuro/senangin (Polynemus spp/ Eleutheronema sp)

Nama Indonesia : Kuro/Senangin

Nama Inggris : Giant threadfish

Nama Latin : Eleutheronema tetradactylum

Deskripsi : Ordo: Percesoces, famili: Polynemidae, genus : Eleutheronema. Badan memanjang, gepeng. Moncong menonjol ke depan, tumpul, mulut lebar, di bawah moncong, ditumbuhi gigi-gigi kecil. Sirip punggung pertama bejari-jari keras 8, sedang sirip punggung kedua 1-2, dan 13-17 lemah. Sirip dubur berjari-jari keras keras 2 dan 15-17 lemah. Garis rusuk bersisik 78-80. Di bawah sirip dada terdapat 4 jari-jari sirip berupa serabut yang satu sama lain terpisah, dapat mencapai sirip perut. Termasuk ikan buas, makanannya ikan-ikan kecil, udang-udangan, organisme dasar. Hidup di dasar, daerah pantai dangkal,

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kadang-kaang masuk sungai-sungai besar. Warna bagian atas putih-perak kehijauan (perak keabu-abuan), putih kekuningan bagian bawah. Sirip punggung, ekor, abu-abu sedikit kekuningan dengan pinggiran gelap. Sirip dubur, perut, kuning jeruk. Ukuran: ukuran tubuh ikan ini berkisar antara 25 - 200 cm.

Daerah Sebar : Daerah penyebaran ikan kuro/senangin adalah perairantropis dan subtropis. Di Indonesia potensi sumberdaya ikan kuro/senangin terdapat di perairan utara Jawa, timur Sumatera, sepanjang Kalimantan, Sulawesi Selatan, Laut Arafuru, ke utara sampai Teluk Benggala dan Teluk Siam. Sedangkan di luar Indonesia terdapat di perairan sepanjang Laut Cina Selatan ke selatan sampai Queensland.

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Lampiran 2. Analisis data hasil tangkapan dari masing-masing alat tangkap yang digunakan dalam analisis

Share Pukat Pantai (Ton) Share Jaring Insang Hanyut (Ton) Share Jermal (Ton) Tahun Bawal

Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total Produksi

Bawal Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total

Produksi Bawal Hitam Bawal Putih Senangin Total

Produksi Grand Total

1985 4.77 3.63 8.76 17.160 91.71 141.58 304.59 537.87 17.79 3.63 3.64 25.05 580.09

1986 5.59 4.03 11.22 20.843 94.16 175.24 323.86 593.27 22.08 6.03 4.38 32.49 646.61

1987 7.57 4.92 9.90 22.395 92.96 192.18 353.55 638.69 27.15 10.96 6.63 44.73 705.82

1988 8.57 5.49 12.14 26.194 102.42 160.86 376.79 640.07 45.14 16.43 5.14 66.71 732.97

1989 7.16 6.33 9.81 23.305 128.07 167.63 406.99 702.69 48.94 19.09 9.81 77.84 803.83

1990 6.63 6.94 9.77 23.342 127.32 193.65 444.74 765.71 47.27 17.01 6.77 71.05 860.10

1991 8.22 9.01 14.60 31.828 135.06 160.10 377.14 672.30 47.24 19.67 13.60 80.52 784.64

1992 9.09 7.99 11.83 28.906 139.26 191.18 419.79 750.23 61.63 21.32 15.90 98.85 877.99

1993 8.16 9.10 13.12 30.371 151.42 213.88 406.16 771.47 63.54 25.54 17.12 106.20 908.04

1994 8.55 7.21 16.47 32.230 143.63 199.74 534.05 877.42 64.94 21.10 15.47 101.51 1,011.16

1995 6.48 8.12 14.96 29.555 140.97 203.06 543.07 887.10 42.96 24.40 24.55 91.91 1,008.57

1996 7.12 10.91 15.66 33.689 158.12 244.41 459.38 861.92 45.41 28.69 20.52 94.62 990.23

1997 9.86 15.24 21.93 47.031 186.14 236.49 497.41 920.04 75.11 40.50 34.94 150.55 1,117.62

1998 10.82 16.49 22.09 49.402 187.43 251.75 542.03 981.21 79.05 30.74 43.22 153.01 1,183.63

1999 7.26 17.57 21.67 46.503 157.57 245.81 479.18 882.56 45.32 37.92 46.64 129.88 1,058.94

2000 6.43 14.56 16.97 37.957 183.58 274.41 485.65 943.64 50.30 44.54 35.71 130.55 1,112.14

2001 9.45 14.60 19.15 43.201 196.63 264.15 552.26 1,013.05 45.00 39.34 38.25 122.59 1,178.84

2002 11.87 18.94 36.07 66.886 160.63 274.68 825.84 1,261.15 49.16 49.45 45.61 144.22 1,472.25

Sumber Data Olahan dari: Dinas Perikanan Propinsi Daerah Tk I Riau 1986-2003

148

Lampiran 4. Gambar alat tangkap yang digunakan dalam analisis

Pukat pantai (beach seine)

Jaring insang hanyut (drift gill net)

149

Jermal (stow nets)

150

Lampiran 5. Analisis CYP

file 11 E:\shazam\CYP.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\CYP.txt sample 1 17 read(11) E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 / skiplines=1 5 VARIABLES AND 17 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1

print E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1

67.55615 136.22122 0.85868 -0.15236 -0.06009 68.66508 145.48058 0.94168 -0.06009 -0.08464 76.81550 146.03480 0.91884 -0.08464 0.05724 69.21929 138.26852 1.05891 0.05724 0.15198 69.04922 137.58485 1.16414 0.15198 0.22711 68.53563 139.94713 1.25497 0.22711 0.09419 71.41150 141.13742 1.09876 0.09419 0.23048 69.72592 146.11855 1.25920 0.23048 0.17282 76.39263 150.56497 1.18865 0.17282 0.30987 74.17234 162.19032 1.36325 0.30987 0.13616 88.01798 177.87288 1.14586 0.13616 0.09715 89.85490 177.20515 1.10203 0.09715 0.24644 87.35025 189.59599 1.27946 0.24644 0.14637

102.24574 209.59915 1.15763 0.14637 -0.01369 107.35341 214.28159 0.98641 -0.01369 0.03930 106.92818 217.84867 1.04008 0.03930 0.06088 110.92049 228.80935 1.06278 0.06088 0.22222

STAT E E2 CPUE LnCPUE LnU1 / pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUME 17 82.601 15.637 0 244.500 67.556 110.9200 E2 17 168.16 0 32.4390 1052.300 136.220 228.8100 CPUE 17 1.111 0.1374 0.019 0.85868 1.3630LNCPUE 17 0.098 0.1259 0.016 -0.15236 0.3099LNU1 17 0.120 0.1113 0.0124 -0.08464 0.3099

CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 17 OBSERVATIONS E 1.0000 E2 0.98369 1.0000 CPUE -0.10168 -0.25399E-02 1.0000 LNCPUE -0.72303E-01 0.21128E-01 0.9976 1.0000 LNU1 -0.38478E-01 -0.66128E-01 0.5041 0.5327 1.0000

E E2 CPUE LNCPUE LNU1

151

OLS LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / rstat anova

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 2 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 17 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LNU1 NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 17

R-SQUARE = 0.2897 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.1883 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.10058E-01 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.10029 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.14081 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.11964 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 16.6235

MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE JUDGE ET AL. (1985,P.242) AKAIKE (1969) FINAL PREDICTION ERROR - FPE = 0.11832E-01 (FPE IS ALSO KNOWN AS AMEMIYA PREDICTION CRITERION - PC) AKAIKE (1973) INFORMATION CRITERION - LOG AIC = -4.4406 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - LOG SC = -4.2936 MODEL SELECTION TESTS - SEE RAMANATHAN (1992,P.167) CRAVEN-WAHBA (1979) GENERALIZED CROSS VALIDATION - GCV = 0.12213E-01 HANNAN AND QUINN (1979) CRITERION = 0.11962E-01 RICE (1984) CRITERION = 0.12801E-01 SHIBATA (1981) CRITERION = 0.11206E-01 SCHWARZ (1978) CRITERION - SC = 0.13656E-01 AKAIKE (1974) INFORMATION CRITERION - AIC = 0.11788E-01

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM MEAN

SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.57442E-01 2. 0.28721E-01 2.856ERROR 0.14081 14. 0.10058E-01 P-VALUETOTAL 0.19825 16. 0.12390E-01 0.091

ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE - FROM ZERO

SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.30076 3. 0.10025 9.968 ERROR 0.14081 14. 0.10058E-01 P-VALUE TOTAL 0.44156 17. 0.25974E-01 0.001

152

PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY

VARIABLE NAME

ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT

STANDARD ERROR

T-RATIO 14 DF

P-VALUE

CORR. COEFF. AT MEANS

LNCPUE 0.47256 0.1992 2.372 0.033 0.535 0.5343 0.3855 E2 -0.00026565 0.0007731 -

0.3436 0.736 -0.091 -0.0774 -0.3734

CONSTANT 0.11819 0.1333 0.8868 0.390 0.231 0.0000 0.9879 DURBIN-WATSON = 2.1678 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.3033 RHO = -0.19235 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.27756E-15 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.10058E-01 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 1.3115 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.2897 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 7 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC =

0.3963

*plot LnU1 / time nowide *plot LnCPUE / time nowide *plot E2 / time nowide

Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 17

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 3 CURRENT PAR= 500 NOTE..TEST LAG ORDER AUTOMATICALLY SET

TOTAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 17

VARIABLE : LNU1 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16

NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.8696 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.7023 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.9066 3.78 AIC = -4.514 SC = -4.418 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.9187 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.5825 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.4216 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.3950 5.34 AIC = -4.390 SC = -4.245

153

VARIABLE : LNCPUE DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16

NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -8.1652 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.6937 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.7851 3.78 AIC = -4.589 SC = -4.492 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -7.7235 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.2552 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.3956 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.4464 5.34 AIC = -4.472 SC = -4.327

VARIABLE : E2 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 16 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST 1.2816 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST 1.3169 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 6.4678 3.78 AIC = 3.984 SC = 4.081 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -2.3900 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.1071 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 6.2455 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 2.7693 5.34 AIC = 3.871 SC = 4.016

*Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / type=df ndiff=1 nlag=4 *Coint LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / type=df ndiff=2 nlag=4 auto LnU1 LnCPUE E2 / rstat REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 3 CURRENT PAR= 500 DEPENDENT VARIABLE = LNU1 NOTE..R-SQUARE,ANOVA,RESIDUALS DONE ON ORIGINAL VARS

LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION 17 OBSERVATIONS BY COCHRANE-ORCUTT TYPE PROCEDURE WITH CONVERGENCE = 0.00100

154

ITERATION RHO LOG L.F. SSE 1 0.00000 16.6235 0.14081 2 -0.19235 17.0340 0.13387 3 -0.28103 17.0965 0.13254 4 -0.30515 17.0961 0.13243 5 -0.31042 17.0949 0.13242 6 -0.31151 17.0947 0.13242 7 -0.31173 17.0946 0.13242

LOG L.F. = 17.0946 AT RHO = -0.31173

ESTIMATE ASYMPTOTIC VARIANCE

ASYMPTOTIC ST.ERROR

ASYMPTOTIC RATIO

RHO -0.31173 0.05311 0.23045 -1.35271 R-SQUARE = 0.3321 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.2367 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.94583E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.97254E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE = 0.13242 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 0.11964 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 17.0946


VARIABLE NAME


STANDARD ERROR

T-RATIO 14 DF

P-VALUE


LNCPUE 0.59002 0.1647 3.582 0.003 0.692 0.6671 0.4814 E2 -0.37309E-03 0.5958E-03 -

0.6262 0.541 -0.165 -0.1087 -0.5244

CONSTANT 0.12331 0.1029 1.199 0.251 0.305 0.0000 1.0307 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.9602 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 2.0827 RHO = -0.08176 RESIDUAL SUM = -0.13304E-01 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.94709E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.2279 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.3319 RUNS TEST: 8 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 9 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.7395 DURBIN H STATISTIC (ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL) = -1.0814 MODIFIED FOR AUTO ORDER=1 stop

155

Lampiran 6. Analisis Penentuan Discount Rate Kula

file 11 E:\shazam\Kula.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\Kula.txt sample 1 10 read(11) T PDRB / skiplines=1 2 VARIABLES AND 10 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1

print T PDRB T PDRB

0.0000000 13.81914 0.6931472 13.87625 1.098612 13.93766 1.386294 13.99447 1.609438 14.02403 1.791759 14.01164 1.945910 14.02758 2.079442 14.04687 2.197225 14.06872 2.302585 14.10044

STAT PDRB T / pcor

NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUMPDRB 10 13.991 0.087910 0.0077282 13.819 14.100T 10 1.5104 0.73302 0.53732 0.00000 2.3026 CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 10 OBSERVATIONS

PDRB T PDRB 1.0000 T 0.98588 1.0000 OLS PDRB T / rstat anova REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 1 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 10 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = PDRB ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 10

R-SQUARE = 0.9720 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.9684 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.24383E-03

156

STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.15615E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.19507E-02 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 13.991 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 28.5215



SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.0676030 1. 0.67603E-01 277.252 ERROR 0.0019507 8. 0.24383E-03 P-VALUE TOTAL 0.0695540 9. 0.77282E-02 0.000


SS DF MS F REGRESSION 1957.5 2. 978.73 4013948.455 ERROR 0.19507E-02 8. 0.24383E-03 P-VALUE TOTAL 1957.5 10. 195.75 0.000 PARTIAL STANDARDIZED

ELASTICITY VARIABLE

NAME ESTIMATED

COEFFICIENT STANDARD

ERROR T-

RATIO 8 DF

P-VALUE


T 0.11823 0.7101E-02 16.65 0.000 0.986 0.9859 0.0128 CONSTANT 13.812 0.1181E-01 1170. 0.000 1.000 0.0000 0.9872

157

DURBIN-WATSON = 1.5030 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.6700 RHO = 0.19527 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.13173E-13 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.24383E-03 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS= 0.12651 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.9720 RUNS TEST: 5 RUNS, 4 POS, 0 ZERO, 6 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = -0.5620 stop

158

Lampiran 7. Analisis Koefisien Degradasi (Dengan Menggunakan Produksi Aktual dan Rataan Geometrik)

Tahun Produksi Aktual (Ton)

Produksi Lestari (Ton) Lestari/Aktual ExpD 1+ExpD 1/f

1985 580.088 647.148 1.11560 3.05141 4.05141 0.246831986 646.607 656.445 1.01522 2.75996 3.75996 0.265961987 705.815 723.551 1.02513 2.78745 3.78745 0.264031988 732.971 661.076 0.90191 2.46431 3.46431 0.288661989 803.828 659.656 0.82064 2.27196 3.27196 0.305631990 860.100 655.362 0.76196 2.14247 3.14247 0.318221991 784.644 679.297 0.86574 2.37676 3.37676 0.296141992 877.988 665.301 0.75776 2.13348 3.13348 0.319131993 908.041 720.122 0.79305 2.21013 3.21013 0.311511994 1,011.156 702.023 0.69428 2.00226 3.00226 0.333081995 1,008.565 812.338 0.80544 2.23768 3.23768 0.308861996 990.226 826.523 0.83468 2.30408 3.30408 0.302661997 1,117.615 807.156 0.72221 2.05898 3.05898 0.326911998 1,183.626 919.527 0.77687 2.17466 3.17466 0.314991999 1,058.940 956.528 0.90329 2.46770 3.46770 0.288382000 1,112.143 953.477 0.85733 2.35687 3.35687 0.297902001 1,178.836 981.916 0.83295 2.30010 3.30010 0.303022002 1,472.254 1,030.450 0.69991 2.01358 3.01358 0.33183

Tahun avg/act Expl 1+Expl Koef

1985 1.58839 4.89586 5.89586 0.16961 1986 1.42499 4.15780 5.15780 0.19388 1987 1.30545 3.68935 4.68935 0.21325 1988 1.25709 3.51516 4.51516 0.22148 1989 1.14627 3.14644 4.14644 0.24117 1990 1.07128 2.91911 3.91911 0.25516 1991 1.17430 3.23587 4.23587 0.23608 1992 1.04945 2.85609 3.85609 0.25933 1993 1.01472 2.75859 3.75859 0.26606 1994 0.91124 2.48741 3.48741 0.28675 1995 0.91358 2.49324 3.49324 0.28627 1996 0.93050 2.53578 3.53578 0.28282 1997 0.82444 2.28060 3.28060 0.30482 1998 0.77846 2.17812 3.17812 0.31465 1999 0.87012 2.38720 3.38720 0.29523 2000 0.82850 2.28987 3.28987 0.30396 2001 0.78162 2.18502 3.18502 0.31397 2002 0.62585 1.86983 2.86983 0.34845

159

Lampiran 8. Maple Output Untuk Perhitungan Optimal

a). Dengan real discount rate Kula 4%

> restart; > r:=0.515692; k:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; i:=0.04;

r := 0.515692

k := 1154.161571

q := 0.00093858

p := 101.619

c := 29.554

i := 0.04

> f(x):=r*ln(k/x)-r+(c*r*ln(k/x)/(x*(p*q*x-c)))=i;

f x( ) := 0.515692 ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

- 0.515692 +

15.24076137 ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

x 0.09537756102 x - 29.554( ) = 0.04

> solve(f(x),x);

396.6961584

> g(x):=ln(k/x)-1-(i/r)+(c*r)/(p*q*x)+(c*i)/(p*q*r*x)=0;

g x( ) := ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

- 1.077565679 + 183.8287461x

= 0

> a:=fsolve(g(x),x);

a := 549.1267825

> optx:=a; optx := 549.1267825

> h:=r*optx*ln(k/optx);

h := 210.3463464

> E:=h/(q*optx); E := 408.1229821

> Go(y):=q*k*y*exp((-q/r)*y);

Go y( ) := 1.083272967 y e -0.001820039869 y( )

> plot(Go(y),y=0..2000);

160

This is curve fitting for sustainable yield (logistic form) > Lo(y):=q*k*y-(q^2*k/r)*y^2;

Lo y( ) := 1.083272967 y - 0.001971599990 y 2

> plot(Lo(y), y=0..550);

161

b). Dengan market discount rate 15%

> restart; > r:=0.515692; k:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; i:=0.15;

r := 0.515692

k := 1154.161571

q := 0.00093858

p := 101.619

c := 29.554

i := 0.15

> f(x):=r*ln(k/x)-r+(c*r*ln(k/x)/(x*(p*q*x-c)))=i;

f x( ) := 0.515692 ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

- 0.515692 +

15.24076137 ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

x 0.09537756102 x - 29.554( ) = 0.15

> solve(f(x),x);

333.3906553

> g(x):=ln(k/x)-1-(i/r)+(c*r)/(p*q*x)+(c*i)/(p*q*r*x)=0;

g x( ) := ln 1154.161571x

⎛⎜⎝

⎞⎟⎠

- 1.290871295 + 249.9243153x

= 0

> a:=fsolve(g(x),x);

a := 515.4791984

> optx:=a; optx := 515.4791984

> h:=r*optx*ln(k/optx);

h := 214.2664086

> E:=h/(q*optx); E := 442.8652968

> Go(y):=q*k*y*exp((-q/r)*y);

Go y( ) := 1.083272967 y e -0.001820039869 y( )

162

> plot(Go(y),y=0..2000);

This is curve fitting for sustainable yield (logistic form) > Lo(y):=q*k*y-(q^2*k/r)*y^2;

Lo y( ) := 1.083272967 y - 0.001971599990 y 2

> plot(Lo(y), y=0..550);

163

Lampiran 9. Analisis Optimal Untuk Rezim Pengelolaan MEY, MSY dan Open Acces

> restart; > r:=0.515692; K:=1154.161571; q:=0.00093858; p:=101.619; c:=29.554; delta:=0.15;

r := 0.515692

K := 1154.161571

q := 0.00093858

p := 101.619

c := 29.554

δ := 0.15

> hs:=q*K*E*(1-(q*E)/r); hs := 1.083272967 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( )

> Emax:=diff(hs,E);

Emax := 1.083272967 - 0.003943199978 E

> Esus:=solve(Emax=0,E); Esus := 274.7192567

> hsus:=q*K*Esus*(1-(q*Esus)/r);

hsus := 148.7979722

> pi:=p*hs-c*E; π := 110.0811156 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( ) - 29.554 E

> pisus:=p*hsus-c*Esus;

pisus := 7001.648227

> Xsus:=hsus/(q*Esus); Xsus := 577.0807857

> Eoa:=(r/q)*((1-(c/(p*q*K))));

Eoa := 401.9281460

> hoa:=((r*c)/(p*q))*(1-(c/(p*q*K))); hoa := 116.8933411

> Xoa:=hoa/(q*Eoa);

Xoa := 309.8632391

> pioa:=p*hoa-c*Eoa; pioa := 0.

> Eopt:=diff(pi,E);

Eopt := 80.5271156 - 0.4007040384 E

> Eopt:=solve(Eopt=0,E); Eopt := 200.9640729

164

> TR:=p*hs; TR := 110.0811156 E 1 - 0.001820039869 E( )

> TC:=c*E;

TC := 29.554 E

> plot({TC,TR},E=0..700, Yield=0..20000);

> plot(hs,E=0..700, Yield=0..200);

> Xopt:=(K/2)*(1+(c/(p*q*K)));

Xopt := 732.0124050

> hopt:=((r*K)/4)*(1+(c/(p*q*K)))*(1-(c/(p*q*K))); hopt := 138.0728091

> piopt:=p*hopt-c*Eopt;

piopt := 8091.528580

165

Lampiran 10. Analisis Interaksi Mangrove dan Sumberdaya Perikanan (Model Fozal)

A. Data yang digunakan dalam model Fozal

Tahun Effort (Trip)

Produksi (Ton)

Mangrove7 (Ha) h/E ME

1985 67.556 580,09 31.001,0 0,85868 2.094,30

1986 68.665 646,61 33.587,5 0,94168 2.306,28

1987 76.816 705,82 36.173,9 0,91884 2.778,73

1988 69.219 732,97 38.760,3 1,05892 2.682,95

1989 69.049 803,83 41.346,8 1,16414 2.854,95

1990 68.536 860,10 43.933,2 1,25496 3.011,01

1991 71.412 784,64 46.519,7 1,09876 3.322,06

1992 69.726 877,99 49.106,1 1,25920 3.423,97

1993 76.393 908,04 51.692,5 1,18864 3.948,95

1994 74.172 1011,16 54.279,0 1,36326 4.025,98

1995 88.018 1008,57 56.865,4 1,14586 5.005,18

1996 89.855 990,23 59.451,9 1,10203 5.342,05

1997 87.350 1.117,62 62.038,3 1,27947 5.419,05

1998 102.246 1.183,63 64.624,7 1,15763 6.607,62

1999 107.353 1.058,94 67.211,2 0,98641 7.215,32

2000 106.928 1.112,14 69.797,6 1,04009 7.463,32

2001 110.920 1.178,84 48.718,0 1,06278 5.403,80

2002 117.889 1.472,25 48.567,0 1,24885 5.456,15

7 Data diolah dari Bakosurtanal (2001) dan Khairuddin (2003)

166

B. Analisis penentuan koefisien regresi

file 11 E:\shazam\Fozal.txt UNIT 11 IS NOW ASSIGNED TO: E:\shazam\Fozal.txt sample 1 18 read(11) Y X1 X2 / skiplines=1 3 VARIABLES AND 18 OBSERVATIONS STARTING AT OBS 1

print Y X1 X2 0.858680 3100.102 209430.5 0.941680 3358.746 230628.3 0.918840 3617.390 277873.4 1.058920 3876.034 268295.2 1.164140 4134.678 285495.4 1.254960 4393.322 301100.7 1.098760 4651.966 332206.2 1.259200 4910.610 342397.2 1.188640 5169.254 394894.8 1.363260 5427.898 402598.1 1.145860 5686.542 500518.1 1.102030 5945.186 534204.7 1.279470 6203.830 541904.6 1.157630 6462.474 660762.1 0.986410 6721.118 721532.2 1.040090 6979.762 746332.0 1.062780 4871.800 540380.1 1.062780 4856.697 572551.2

STAT Y X1 X2 / pcor NAME N MEAN ST. DEV VARIANCE MINIMUM MAXIMUM

Y 18 1.1080 0.17893E-01 0.13377 0.85868 1.3633 X1 18 5020.4 1158.1 0.13412E+07 3100.1 6979.8 X2 18 0.43684E+06 0.17025E+06 0.28984E+11 0.20943E+06 0.74633E+06

CORRELATION MATRIX OF VARIABLES - 18 OBSERVATIONS Y 1.0000 X1 0.38204 1.0000 X2 0.10322 0.9177 1.0000

Y X1 X2 OLS Y X1 X2 / rstat anova

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR= 2 CURRENT PAR= 500 OLS ESTIMATION 18 OBSERVATIONS DEPENDENT VARIABLE = Y ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 18

167

R-SQUARE = 0.5336 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4714 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.94590E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.97257E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE= 0.14188 MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 1.1080 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 18.0471



SS DF MS F REGRESSION 0.16230 2. 0.81152E-01 8.579ERROR 0.14188 15. 0.94590E-02 P-VALUETOTAL 0.30419 17. 0.17893E-01 0.003


SS DF MS F REGRESSION 22.2610 3. 7.4202 784.460ERROR 0.1419 15. 0.94590E-02 P-VALUETOTAL 22.4020 18. 1.2446 0.000 PARTIAL STANDARDIZED ELASTICITY

VARIABLE NAME


STANDARD ERROR

T-RATIO 15 DF

P-VALUE


X1 0.21022E-03 0.5126E-04 4.101 0.001 0.727 1.8200 0.9525 X2 -0.12312E-05 0.3487E-06 -3.531 0.003 -0.674 -1.5670 -0.4854 CONSTANT 0.59043 0.1342 4.399 0.001 0.751 0.0000 0.5329 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.3841 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.4655 RHO = 0.20088 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.38858E-15 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.94590E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.3941 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.5336 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.0547

168

*plot Y / time nowide *plot X1 / time nowide *plot X2 / time nowide

Coint Y X1 X2 ...NOTE..SAMPLE RANGE SET TO: 1, 18

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 3 CURRENT PAR = 500 ...NOTE..TEST LAG ORDER AUTOMATICALLY SET

TOTAL NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS = 18

VARIABLE : Y DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17

NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -9.0452 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.7288 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 3.8298 3.78 AIC = -4.357 SC = -4.259 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -8.6120 -18.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -2.4009 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 2.4603 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 3.5898 5.34 AIC = -4.250 SC = -4.103 VARIABLE : X1 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -3.4124 -11.20 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.7791 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 1.8957 3.78 AIC = 12.687 SC = 12.785 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -2.28360 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -0.50659 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 1.21200 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 1.52410 5.34 AIC = 12.799 SC = 12.946

169

VARIABLE : X2 DICKEY-FULLER TESTS - NO.LAGS = 0 NO.OBS = 17 NULL TEST ASY. CRITICAL HYPOTHESIS STATISTIC VALUE 10% CONSTANT, NO TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -1.9285 -11.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.1763 -2.57 A(0)=A(1)=0 1.5729 3.78 AIC = 22.315 SC = 22.413 CONSTANT, TREND A(1)=0 Z-TEST -7.9179 -18.2 A(1)=0 T-TEST -1.7592 -3.13 A(0)=A(1)=A(2)=0 1.7941 4.03 A(1)=A(2)=0 1.7500 5.34 AIC = 22.298 SC = 22.445 *Coint Y X1 X2 / type=df ndiff=1 nlag=4 *Coint Y X1 X2 / type=df ndiff=2 nlag=4

auto Y X1 X2 / rstat

REQUIRED MEMORY IS PAR = 3 CURRENT PAR = 500

DEPENDENT VARIABLE = Y ..NOTE..R-SQUARE,ANOVA,RESIDUALS DONE ON ORIGINAL VARS

LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION 18 OBSERVATIONS BY COCHRANE-ORCUTT TYPE PROCEDURE WITH CONVERGENCE = 0.00100 ITERATION RHO LOG L.F. SSE

1 0.00000 18.0471 0.14188 2 0.20088 18.3861 0.13633 3 0.20800 18.3884 0.13627 4 0.20850 18.3885 0.13627

LOG L.F. = 18.3885 AT RHO = 0.20850

ESTIMATE ASYMPTOTIC VARIANCE

ASYMPTOTIC ST.ERROR

ASYMPTOTIC RATIO

RHO 0.20850 0.05314 0.23052 0.90446 R-SQUARE = 0.5520 R-SQUARE ADJUSTED = 0.4923 VARIANCE OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA**2 = 0.90844E-02 STANDARD ERROR OF THE ESTIMATE-SIGMA = 0.95312E-01 SUM OF SQUARED ERRORS-SSE = 0.13627

170

MEAN OF DEPENDENT VARIABLE = 1.1080 LOG OF THE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION = 18.3885


VARIABLE NAME


STANDARD ERROR

T-RATIO 15 DF

P-VALUE


X1 0.20654E-03 0.5744E-04 3.596 0.003 0.680 1.7881 0.9358 X2 -0.12299E-05 0.3961E-06 -3.105 0.007 -0.625 -1.5653 -0.4849 CONSTANT 0.60868 0.1507 4.039 0.001 0.722 0.0000 0.5493 DURBIN-WATSON = 1.6390 VON NEUMANN RATIO = 1.7354 RHO = 0.06061 RESIDUAL SUM = 0.27672E-01 RESIDUAL VARIANCE = 0.91354E-02 SUM OF ABSOLUTE ERRORS = 1.3828 R-SQUARE BETWEEN OBSERVED AND PREDICTED = 0.5497 RUNS TEST: 10 RUNS, 8 POS, 0 ZERO, 10 NEG NORMAL STATISTIC = 0.0547 DURBIN H STATISTIC (ASYMPTOTIC NORMAL) = 1.2332 MODIFIED FOR AUTO ORDER=1 stop

C. Model Fozal

Dari analisis regresi diperoleh :

b1 = 0.00020654 b2 = -0.00000123

Setelah dikalikan dengan rata-rata luasan mangrove maka diperoleh persamaan model Fozal:

20061751043,0036915481,1 EEht −=

171

Lampiran 11. Peta Sebaran Mangrove di Kabupaten Bengkalis

172

Lampiran 12. Peta Sebaran Alat Tangkap di Kabupaten Bengkalis

173

Lampiran 13. Perhitungan Analisis Stabilitas

A. Analisis stabilitas terhadap data biomass

Tahun Et ht Xt Xt+1 Xt+2

1985 67.556 58.01 914.87 1,003.31 978.97 1986 68.665 64.66 1,003.31 978.97 1,128.21 1987 76.816 70.58 978.97 1,128.21 1,240.32 1988 69.219 73.30 1,128.21 1,240.32 1,337.09 1989 69.049 80.38 1,240.32 1,337.09 1,170.67 1990 68.536 86.01 1,337.09 1,170.67 1,341.60 1991 71.412 78.46 1,170.67 1,341.60 1,266.43 1992 69.726 87.80 1,341.60 1,266.43 1,452.46 1993 76.393 90.80 1,266.43 1,452.46 1,220.85 1994 74.172 101.12 1,452.46 1,220.85 1,174.15 1995 88.018 100.86 1,220.85 1,174.15 1,363.19 1996 89.855 99.02 1,174.15 1,363.19 1,233.38 1997 87.350 111.76 1,363.19 1,233.38 1,050.96 1998 102.246 118.36 1,233.38 1,050.96 1,108.15 1999 107.353 105.89 1,050.96 1,108.15 1,132.32 2000 106.928 111.21 1,108.15 1,132.32 1,330.57 2001 110.920 117.88 1,132.32 1,330.57 - 2002 117.889 147.23 1,330.57

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.38422R Square 0.14762Adjusted R Square 0.01649Standard Error 124.87842Observations 16

174

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 35111.161 17555.580 1.12575 0.35408 Residual 13 202730.068 15594.621 Total 15 237841.229

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower

95% Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept 750.392 315.891 2.375 0.034 67.952 1432.832 67.952 1432.832 X Variable 1 0.277 0.284 0.977 0.347 -0.336 0.890 -0.336 0.890 X Variable 2 0.116 0.251 0.462 0.652 -0.426 0.658 -0.426 0.658

Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai : a = 0.2771 b = 0.1160

=− ba 241 -0.0968

Ini berarti nilai dari : ba −241 < 0

Solusinya:

br =

( )ba 2/cos −=θ

( )ωθ += tArx tt cos

dimana [ ]πθ ,0∈

maka akan diperoleh : r = 0.3406

=θcos -0.4067 A = 1

Dari persamaan fungsi xt di atas maka akan diperoleh data sebagai berikut:

t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Xt -0.1385 -0.0472 -0.0161 -0.0055 -0.0019 -0.0006 -0.0002 -0.0001

Data biomass dikatakan stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:

1). b < 1

2). a < 1+b

175

Dari hasil perhitungan diperoleh:

1). b = 0.1160 b < 1

2). a = 0.2771

1 + b = 1.1160 a < 1 + b

∴ Data biomass stabil

B. Analisis stability terhadap data effort

Tahun Et Et+1 Et+2

1985 67.556 68.665 76.816 1986 68.665 76.816 69.219 1987 76.816 69.219 69.049 1988 69.219 69.049 68.536 1989 69.049 68.536 71.412 1990 68.536 71.412 69.726 1991 71.412 69.726 76.393 1992 69.726 76.393 74.172 1993 76.393 74.172 88.018 1994 74.172 88.018 89.855 1995 88.018 89.855 87.350 1996 89.855 87.350 102.246 1997 87.350 102.246 107.353 1998 102.246 107.353 106.928 1999 107.353 106.928 110.920 2000 106.928 110.920 117.889 2001 110.920 117.889 - 2002 117.889 -

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics


176

ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 4012.4509 2006.2254 55.9487 4.10236E-07 Residual 13 466.1579 35.8583 Total 15 4478.6088

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-

value Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept -4.1648 8.8880 -0.4686 0.6471 -23.3662 15.0367 -23.3662 15.0367 X Variable 1 0.6848 0.2592 2.6415 0.0203 0.1247 1.2448 0.1247 1.2448 X Variable 2 0.4154 0.2840 1.4627 0.1673 -0.1981 1.0289 -0.1981 1.0289

Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai :

a = 0.6848

b = 0.4154

=− ba 241 -0.2981

Ini berarti nilai dari : ba −241 < 0

Solusinya:

br =

( )ba 2/cos −=θ

( )ωθ += tArx tt cos

dimana [ ]πθ ,0∈

maka akan diperoleh : r = 0.6445

=θcos -0.5313

A = 1 Dari persamaan fungsi xt tersebut, maka diperoleh data sebagai berikut:

t Xt 1 -0.3424 2 -0.2207 3 -0.1422 4 -0.0917 5 -0.0591 6 -0.0381 7 -0.0245

177

t Xt 8 -0.0158 9 -0.0102 10 -0.0066 11 -0.0042 12 -0.0027 13 -0.0018 14 -0.0011 15 -0.0007 16 -0.0005 17 -0.0003 18 -0.0002 19 -0.0001 20 -0.0001

Data biomass dikatakan stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:

1). b < 1

2). a < 1+b


1). b = 0.4154 b < 1

2). a = 0.6848

1 + b = 1.4154 a < 1 + b

∴ Data effort stabil

178

C. Analisis stability terhadap data luasan mangrove

Tahun Mt Mt+1 Mt+2

1985 31.00 33.59 36.17 1986 33.59 36.17 38.76 1987 36.17 38.76 41.35 1988 38.76 41.35 43.93 1989 41.35 43.93 46.52 1990 43.93 46.52 49.11 1991 46.52 49.11 51.69 1992 49.11 51.69 54.28 1993 51.69 54.28 56.87 1994 54.28 56.87 59.45 1995 56.87 59.45 62.04 1996 59.45 62.04 64.62 1997 62.04 64.62 67.21 1998 64.62 67.21 69.80 1999 67.21 69.80 48.72 2000 69.80 48.72 46.28 2001 48.72 46.28 2002 46.28

SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics


ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 1152.800780 576.400390 17.642314 0.000198Residual 13 424.729150 32.671473 Total 15 1577.529931

179

Coefficients Standard

Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept 12.38262 6.93844 1.78464 0.09766 -2.60698 27.37221 -2.60698 27.37221 X Variable 1 0.94555 0.27487 3.43994 0.00439 0.35172 1.53938 0.35172 1.53938 X Variable 2 -0.17430 0.25000 -0.69722 0.49795 -0.71438 0.36578 -0.71438 0.36578

Dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai :

a = 0.94555 b = -0.17430

39782,0241 =− ba

Karena nilai dari : 0241 >− ba , solusinya:

baam −±−= 241

21

2,1

m1 = 0.15795 m2 = -1.10350 dan :

ttt BmAmx 21 +=

Jika A=1 dan B=2 Dari persamaan fungsi xt di atas maka akan diperoleh data sebagai berikut:

t Xt 1 -2.04912 2.46043 -2.68364 2.96635 -3.27256 3.61147 -3.98528 4.39769 -4.852810 5.355111 -5.909412 6.521013 -7.195914 7.940715 -8.762616 9.6696

180

Data stabil apabila memenuhi dua kondisi yaitu:

1). b < 1

2). a < 1+b


1). b = -0.17430 b < 1

2). a = 0.94555

1 + b = 0.82570 a > 1 + b

∴ Data mangrove tidak stabil

181

Lampiran 14. Perhitungan Surplus Produsen

> restart; > AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));

AC := 2 c

α + -4 β h + α2

> A:=int(AC,h);

A := c α ln h( )

2 β -

c -4 β h + α2

β -

c α ln -4 β h + α2

- α⎛⎝

⎞⎠

2 β +

c α ln α + -4 β h + α2⎛

⎝⎞⎠

2 β

> PS:=p0*h0-A;

PS := p0 h0 - c α ln h( )

2 β +

c -4 β h + α2

β +

c α ln -4 β h + α2

- α⎛⎝

⎞⎠

2 β -

c α ln α + -4 β h + α2⎛

⎝⎞⎠

2 β

1985

> restart; > alpha:=1.083272967; beta:=0.1971599990e-2; p0:=32.190; c:=10.903; h:=64.184;

α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 32.190

c := 10.903

h := 64.184

> AC:=2*c/(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)); AC := 11.47589345

> A:=1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(h)-c/beta*(-4*beta*h+alpha^2)^(1/2)-1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha-sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2))+1/2*c/beta*alpha*ln(alpha+sqrt(-4*beta*h+alpha^2));

A := 13833.06054

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11766.97758

182

1986


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.00197159999

p0 := 31.568

c := 9.750

h := 65.087



A := 12379.48208

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 10324.81566

1987


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 37.253

c := 11.791

h := 71.578



A := 15052.35046

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12385.85523

183

1988


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 41.644

c := 11.438

h := 65.537



A := 14528.15276

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11798.92993

1989


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 44.604

c := 11.143

h := 64.184



A := 14137.55787

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 11274.69473

184

1990


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 47.383

c := 10.981

h := 65.399



A := 13946.08690

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 10847.28608

1991


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 51.411

c := 13.608

h := 64.982



A := 17276.44072

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 13935.65112

185

1992


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 53.931

c := 12.456

h := 67.304



A := 15844.48081

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12214.70879

1993


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 60.033

c := 14.689

h := 65.947



A := 18663.82500

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 14704.82875

186

1994


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 63.664

c := 13.582

h := 71.248



A := 17333.92714

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 12797.99447

1995


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 72.745

c := 18.464

h := 69.502



A := 23530.05869

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 18474.13570

187

1996


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 79.333

c := 20.937

h := 80.073



A := 26921.25159

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 20568.82028

1997


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 84.588

c := 19.227

h := 81.419



A := 24751.00024

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 17863.92987

188

1998


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 140.451

c := 35.286

h := 79.581



A := 45352.43957

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 34175.20854

1999


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 221.665

c := 65.356

h := 90.149



A := 84771.28010

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 64788.40202

189

2000


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 214.731

c := 60.044

h := 93.571



A := 78115.62399

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 58023.02959

2001


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 266.464

c := 72.919

h := 93.290



A := 94842.15455

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 69983.72799

190

2002


α := 1.083272967

β := 0.001971599990

p0 := 285.480

c := 66.483

h := 95.900



A := 86670.95331

> PS:=abs(p0*h-A); PS := 59293.42131

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