D2.5.Report on space weather effects on communication and positioning … · communication and...

Deliverable 2.5 Report on space weather effects on communication and positioning services Project no. 636329 Project acronym: EfficienSea2 EFFICIENSEA2 – efficient, safe and sustainable traffic at sea Funding scheme: Innovation Action (IA) Start date of project: 1 May 2015 End date of project: 30 April 2018 Duration: 36 months

Due date of deliverable: 31.10.2016 Actual submission date: 28.10.2016 Organisation in charge of deliverable: CLS

Document Status

1.1 Authors

Name Organisation

JJ. VALETTE CLS

P. YAYA CLS

P. GROS CLS

1.2 Document History

Version Date Initials Description

1.3 Review Name Organisation

Contents Document Status ..................................................................................................................... 2

1.1 Authors ....................................................................................................................... 2

1.2 Document History ....................................................................................................... 2

1.3 Review ........................................................................................................................ 2

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5

2 IMO requirements and IALA WWRNS analysis ................................................................ 6

3 Sources of Space Weather (SW) perturbations ................................................................ 8

3.1 Solar and geomagnetic activities and proxys .............................................................. 8

3.2 Ionosphere activity characteristics ............................................................................ 12

3.2.1 Ionosphere layer physical description ................................................................ 12

3.2.2 Ionosphere in Northern latitudes ........................................................................ 14

3.2.3 Ionosphere events and relation with geomagnetic and solar indices ................. 17

3.2.4 Classification of ionospheric perturbations ......................................................... 20

4 Space weather impacts on communications systems & GNSS (bibliog.) ....................... 22

4.1 Impacts description ................................................................................................... 22

4.1.1 Impacts on HF communication ........................................................................... 24

4.1.2 Impacts on mobile satellite communications (VHF-UHF and L-Band) ................ 26

4.1.3 Impacts on GNSS positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) systems ................ 27

4.1.4 Augmented navigation systems and other differential systems .......................... 31

4.2 Monitoring space weather services on communications and GNSS ......................... 32

4.3 CLS Space Weather services ................................................................................... 37

5 Extreme space weather events and estimated impacts on Earth ................................... 42

5.1 Nota about the 23rd July 2012 solar event ................................................................ 43

6 SW impacts on GNSS: analysis method and means of observation............................... 45

6.1 Ionosphere monitoring network (Permanent GNSS stations) ................................... 45

6.2 GNSS key parameters relevant for ionospheric effects analysis .............................. 46

6.3 Static positioning data ............................................................................................... 47

6.4 Dynamic positioning data (real navigation conditions) .............................................. 48

7 GPS impacts - Analysis of a major recent magnetic event (17-18th March2015) ........... 49

7.1 Magnetic event characteristics.................................................................................. 49

7.2 SBAS perturbations (EGNOS) .................................................................................. 52

7.3 GNSS perturbations analysis .................................................................................... 54

7.3.1 Observed GNSS L2 Losses maps (at ionospheric pierce points) ....................... 54

7.3.2 Roti index perturbations ..................................................................................... 57

7.3.3 L2 losses of lock and ROTI index correlation ..................................................... 59

7.3.4 Positioning perturbations estimated during the main 2015 magnetic event ....... 60

7.3.5 Positioning perturbations estimated during the worst 2003 storm ...................... 62

8 Multi-bands space weather monitoring campaign on board ship in a polar route ........... 64

8.1 Objectives of the campaign ...................................................................................... 64

8.2 Campaign preparation and planning ......................................................................... 64

8.3 Processing plan ........................................................................................................ 65

8.4 Campaign contribution to the Space Weather forecast service (WP6) & other WPs 65

9 Conclusions for a space weather forecast service (WP6) ............................................... 66

1 InSpace wto have communregion isBut beca(weatherthe GNS

ntroducweather as

significanications sy more andause of thr, ice, few c

SS and com

ction the interac

nt impactsystems in t more attra

he extremecommunica

mmunicatio

ctions betws on terrehe high latactive for nely difficultation meann system is

of 66

ween solar estrial systtitude regionew maritimt conditionns, low SAs of high im

6 “This prothe Europresearchunder gra

activity antems. We

ons for marme routes tns that maAR assistanmportance.

oject has receivepean Union’s Ho and innovation ant agreement N

d the earthe focus onritime applthanks to tay be facence) knowi.

ed funding from orizon 2020 programme

No 636329”.

h systems n the GNications. Tthe global ced by the ng the relia

is known NSS and he Arctic changes. masters

ability on

2 IMThe folloinformati

Space wRecomm

O requiowing tablon in terms

Table 1. IM

Table 2. IM

weather immendation R

irementles summs of accura

MO present PN

MO future PN

mpacts amR-129. The

ts and IAarize the acy, availab

NT operationa

NT operationa

mong othe main con

of 66

ALA WWcurrent an

bility and c

al performanc

al performanc

ers on Gclusions ar


WRNS and future

continuity.

ce requireme

ce requiremen

GNSS arere given in


analysisIMO requ

ents. IMO Res

nts. IMO Res.

e also cothe followi


No 636329”.

s uirements

. A.953(23)

A.915(22)

onsidered ing chart.

for PNT

in IALA

...

Event

EquatoriaIonosphescintillati

Polar scintillati

Table 4. G

al eric ons

Ionospheons (Arctic

NSS risk ass

Probaoccur

H (essolar

eric c)

M stormsubstr

essments rel

Table 3. G

ability orrence

specially max.)

(magnets roms)

ative to ionos

of 66

GNSS risk ass

of Conse

at Signal(availaAccura

tic or

Signal(availaAccura- TBC)

spheric scint


sessments

equence

atteability) acy (TBC)

atteability) acy (Not a) illations


enuation/los

enuation/los

t 10 m lev


No 636329”.

Mitigadifficu

ss H

ss

vel

H

ation ulty/cost

3 SoThis chaspace we

3.1 SolaThe ionoby the Sthe Earthdisplays,in any ointense dgeomagnbetween ionospheionosphe

urces ofapter defineeather pert

ar and geoosphere acSunspot nuh's magne, geomagnof these fodisturbancenetic storm the sun

eric phenoere on radio

f Spacees what isturbations.

omagneticctivity is comber. Inte

etic field, aetic storms

our elemenes in the

ms. The kand the Emena. Thiowaves pro

Figure

e Weaths called sp

c activitiesonnected weractions bnd the Eas and othents affect Earth's ma

knowledge Earth is ims should aopagation

1. Solar wind

of 66

er (SW)pace weath

s and proxwith the soetween the

arth's atmoer disturbanaurora disagnetic fie

of the iomportant foallow a beat various

d and magneti


) perturher and de

xys lar activitye solar winsphere cre

nces in thesplays andlds, the st

onosphere or the undetter appre

frequencie

ic field aroun


bationsescribes th

0 that is ond, the soleate the Ee ionospherd abrupt chtrongest va

layers anderstandinghension ofes and thei

nd Earth


No 636329”.

s he main so

often charaar magnet

Earth’s polaric layer. Vhanges caariations and the integ of the of the effecr characte

ources of

acterised tosphere, ar aurora Variations an cause re called eractions origins of cts of the ristics.

The solasolar suphysical liberatedejection. the promthe mainthe total over peryears soregions b

The destcoronal environmplays a CMEs. HaccompastrongesEvent. Tbut it isconnectio

ar radiationsrface, the processes and transAmong th

minence, thn contributo

solar flux riods of seolar cycle vbeing the m

tabilizationmass ejec

ment withinkey role 0

However, tanied with est solar evhe accelers not syson. The so

s are the mmagnetic

s. During esformed inhe structuree coronal

or. The actover a few

everal weevariation. Tmajor sourc

n of the coctions (CMn 10 minut0. High enhere are nenergetic p

vents (overrated particstematic aolar wind w

main origin field is th

eruptive evnto heat wes that parholes, the tive regionw days perks which i

The solar flces of the s

Figure 2. Ma

ronal magnMEs). The tes. In thenergetic panot so freqparticles (ar class M.cles may aand requirwhich is io

of 66

of the ionihe key ph

vents the mwhich causerticipate togranulatios induce ariod. The pis in the slares are gsolar activi

ain structures

netic field radiation

e process articles maquent; arouaround 10 e5), genera

arrive at theres a favnized plas


zation of thhysical parmagnetic ees electrom the solar ns and osc

a variation prominenceame order

generated ty.

s of the sun

may lead which is

of ionizatioainly protound one peevents per ate SEPEse Earth levourable inma that pe


he Earth’s rameter wnergy storemagnetic eactivity 0: cillations, tof the 0.2

es induce ar of magniin the Sun

to solar flaproduced

on, X-raysons are alsercent of tyear at so

s or Solar vel within fenterplanetaermanently


No 636329”.

atmospherhich drivesed in the cenergy or the active

the two for% peak toa variationtude of th corona, th

ares, eruptimpact th

s and UV so liberatethe solar flolar maximu

Energeticew tens of

ary magney escapes

re. At the s all the corona is particles regions, mers are o peak of n of 0.1% e eleven he active

tions and he Earth radiation

ed during lares are um). The

c Particle f minutes etic field from the

Sun is aby low spmore buholes, reis open tpredominsolar revanywher

The folloon the su

Delays fo

- El- En- So

The interrole in thpropagatup with awhen arrin particl

lso a sourcpeed windst about 3

egions of thto the intenant in thevolutions. Tre on the su

owing illustun’s surfac

Figure

or solar eve

lectromagnnergetic acolar wind prplanetary e impact otion along a low speeriving near es its mag

ce of ionoss typically times less

he solar corrplanetary e recurrenThey are un during t

ration reprce at its arr

3. Time betwe

ents arriva

netic wavesccelerated perturbationmagnetic f

of the solarthe interpld solar winthe Earth,

gnetic field

P

sphere peraround 35

s dense. Trona with lomedium. A

t geomagnusually loc

the solar m

resents theival on Ear

een the occu

al on Earth

s (10 minuparticles (fns (2 days field and rer perturbatiolanetary mnd generat, the solar . The char

of 66

rturbation w50 km/s andThe latter aower densAt solar mnetic activicated in th

maximum.

e time delarth.

rrence of a so

are of the

tes delay tfew tens ofdelay)

egions calleons and th

magnetic fieed shock wwind will in

rged partic


within 2 dad high speare generaity plasma

minimum, thity as theyhe polar re

ay between

olar event and

following o

to impact Ef minutes,

ed regionshe Earth maeld, a high waves andnteract withles penetra


ays, see 0.ed winds a

ated by CMand where

hey are they may maegion at s

n the occur

d its arrival o

orders of m

Earth enviro1 % of erup

of interactagnetic conspeed sol particle ach it by defoate in the


No 636329”.

. It is charaaround 700MEs or thee the magne main souintain over

solar minim

rrences of

on Earth

magnitude:

onment, erptions)

tion play annection. Dlar wind mccelerationorming andpolar cusp

acterized 0 km/s or e coronal netic field urce and r several

mum and

an event

ruptions)

lso a key During its

may catch n. Finally, d feeding p causing

precipitaa dense phenomemagneticsquare omagnetodipole) o

Also essare trapthermospdon’t mo

In the thThe up(thermos(ionosphradiationtend to melectrojeEarth m

tions and iand hot p

ena are thec reconnecof the solaosphere is of the interp

sential in thpped and phere-iono

ove in the s

hermospheper atmos

sphere, N2

ere, O+2,

are respomove awayts appear

magnetic fi

n the magplasma thae main souction. Note ar wind spstrong wh

planetary m

Fi

he Earth mthe elect

osphere sysame direct

ere-ionospsphere, a and O2 aN+

2, O+, Nonsible for y from the zat high latield lines

P

netosphereat separateurce of geothat the va

peed but hen the Z

magnetic fie

gure 4. Earth

magnetic dytric currenstem. Curtion or with

phere systabove typat 80 km, NO+). On t

heating anzenith the titudes in th

where pa

of 66

e tail increaes oppositeomagnetic ariation of also that compone

eld is nega

’s magnetosp

ynamics arnt systemrents are g

h a differen

tem pically 70

O at 250 he Earth snd ionizatiocharged phe auroral articles pe


asing the pe magneticperturbatiothe magnethe magnnt (directe

ative.

phere structu

re the radias that argenerated

nt speed.

km, is km, H2 a

side that faon increas

particles areoval, the

ermanently


plasma shec field direcons by eneetic field isetic coupli

ed along th

ure

ations beltsre strongly

when elec

composedt 1000 kmaces the S

se. Thermoe also genregion of c

y precipita


No 636329”.

eet densityctions, seeergetic tran proportioning in fronhe Earth M

s in which y involvedctrons and

d of neum) and ionSun the X ospheric werated. Cuconvergencate increas

y which is e 0. Both nsfer and nal to the nt of the Magnetic

particles d in the d protons

tral gas ized gas and UV

winds that urrents or ce of the sing the

ionospheplasma s

The highelectric fdeeply cenergeticupper atcauses acauses eexpansiosurfacesmean mmoleculaproportiomean moa decrea

MagnetiFuller-Roparticulato the fadisturbanpole andidentified(2) the mdeep trou

3.2 Iono

3.2.1 IThe ionoranging fthe gasetrapped i

The sunthe ionosintense oduring da

ere conducsheet which

h latitude ields are th

coupled. Tc neutral atmosphereanomalousexpansion on may ca, which re

molecular mar nitrogenonal to [O] olecular m

ase in the to

ic storms aowell et al.r location d

act that surnces have d therefored and affecmid-latitudeughs of ion

osphere ac

onospherosphere is from 60 kmes which cin the Earth

’s radiationsphere exteon the dayaytime whi

ctivity. Thoh is very se

energetic he two key

The transfeatoms not ce at any las ionization

of the neuause up wesults in dmass, i.e., n [N 2] and

and the loass from uotal electro

and magn. (1994) shdepends orges in thea prefere

e on the cted differees and (3) nization ofte

ctivity cha

re layer pha layer of

m to 1000 tcompose th’s magnet

n penetrateends closeylight sidech merge i

P

ose currenensitive to

particles drivers of

er of energconstraineatitude. Pr

n at night autral atmoswelling, i.edepartures

decreased oxygen oss rate is up welling tonic conten

netic regionhowed thatn universa

e neutral wnce for theUT start t

ently duringthe low la

en at night

aracteristi

hysical desf the atmoto 1200 kmthe ionosptic field and

es deeper er to the Ea. The ionointo two lay

of 66

nts link thethe solar w

precipitatiothe thermo

gy from rind by magnrecipitationat low and sphere, whe., the mo

from diffues in the r[O 2] densproportion

through cont.

ns t the respoal time as wwind and ee night sectime of thg stormy peatitudes. Tht.

cs

scriptionosphere whm. Solar rad

here and d may also

r into the Earth aroundosphere spyers (E and


e ionosphewind.

on and thosphere anng currentnetic field ln by neutr

mid latitudhich is ofteotion of airusive equilratio of atsities ). Asnal to [N2] onstant pre

onse to a gwell as locaequatorwarctor and the storm. Teriods: (1) he high an

hich surroudiations caproduce t

o come from

Earth’s atmd the equaplits into fod F) at nigh


ere and th

e manetosnd ionospht particles lines, so thralized ringdes. Heatin

en rapid dur through librium andtomic oxygs the photand [O2],

essure surf

geomagnetal time. Thrd penetrathe longitudThree magthe high a

nd sub-auro

unds the Euse photoche ionisedm solar win

mosphere aator and theour layers ht time 0.


No 636329”.

he magnet

spheric cohere storms

to neutralhey can img current ng at high uring storm

constant d increasegen densito-ionizatioan increas

faces woul

tic disturbais behaviotion of comde of the mgnetic regand the suboral latitud

Earth at a chemical ed plasma. nds.

at zenith, te ionisation(D, E, F1

tospheric

onvection s that are l creates

mpact the particles latitudes

ms. Rapid pressure

es in the ty [O] to n rate is se in the d lead to

ance at a ur is due

mposition magnetic

gions are b-auroral

des show

distance effects on Ions are

therefore n is more and F2)

- Ththis an

- Thwaindaso

- Thtoellaan

Fi

he D layer at are loweat zenith a

nd disappehe E layerave from cidence anay basis wolar cycle, he F layer

o the sun raectron denyer is the nd 400 km.

igure 5. Sche

is located er than a feand is arouears immedr is locateda few MHngle and o

when the sits electronis located adiation. Dnsity in thimost ionis.

matic represe

P

between 6ew MHz. Itund 108 anddiately afted between

Hz up to an the densun is at ze

n density reabove 120uring the ds layer eved one; th

entation of th

of 66

60 and 90 kts maximumd 109 el/m3

r the sun sn 90 km aa limit freqsity of the Eenith and aeaches 101

0 km and itsday this layvolves aroue higher p

he ionosphere


km and abm electron3. The D la

set. and 120 kmuency. ThE layer. Thalso a max11 el/m3. s altitude dyer splits inund 1012 e

point of ion

e layers Error!


bsorbs elec density oc

ayer appea

m, it refleche reflectiohis layer haximum tha

depends onnto two layeel/m3 at itsisation is l

! Reference so


No 636329”.

ctromagnetccurs when

ars with the

cts electromon dependsas a maximat is functio

n the ionisaers, F1 ands maximumocated aro

ource not foun

tic waves n the sun e sun rise

magnetic s on the

mum on a on of the

ation due d F2, the

m. The F ound 250

nd.

Gradientdifferencthat the given zo

3.2.2 Io

The follosuch eveNordic pe

ParticulaThe Eartmagneticactivity ispoles thaother reexpectedcusp andhas not b

Auroral The sun wind. Thescape fEarth’s mphenomealso calle

The sun more freionospheThe partacceleralines, whThe nortevolves eruption penetrate

ts of electce in sun il

solar illumne.

onosphere

owing paraents is imerturbation

ar case of th’s magnec field liness not expecan over thegions. Effed as less imd it the closbeen speci

Oval corona let

he solar wifrom the s

magnetic fieenon, theired magnet

cycle is aequent. As ere is moreticles that ted. These

here the mhern oval iaccording occurs. Th

e the Earth

tron concelumination

mination mo

e in Northe

agraphs demportant fons on the R

f the polar etic field ins surroundcted. It hase rest of thects on Rmportant. Hse regions fically stud

ts some pand is compsun are coeld. When r collision wic sub-stor

n 11-year a consequ

e charged get trappe

e ions and magnetosph

is compriseto the so

his is due h’s magnet

P

entration m. They willodifies the

ern latitude

escribe somr the unde

RF propaga

r cusp zonntensity god the magns been shohe globe a

RF signals However th

are not yedied.

articles escposed of honducted the matter

with the Earm when th

cycle. Duruence of thwith partic

ed in the melectrons

here is lighed betweeolar activitto the fac

tic field mo

of 66

may occurl also occu

e ionosphe

es

me typical erstandingated signal

ne oes down tnetic polesown that thand that the

propagathe ionosphet well inve

cape from thydrogen ioalong a mr arriving frarth’s magnhey only aff

ring its maxhe higher cles and th

magnetosphare guided

hter, and cn 65° N anty. The ovct that the re intensiv


r in the sur in the timeric electro

Nordic ev of the bein that reg

to zero abos and creahe ionosphee electron ing in throere conten

estigated. R

the sun witons and he

magnetic firom the sunnetic field mfect the Ea

xima sun eintensity ohe electronhere followd around treate whatnd 75° N aval extendsolar partiely.


pace dimeme dimensn density

vents. The ehaviour a

gion.

ove the mate a cone ere layer iscontent is

ough this nt and activRF signals

th a continelium ionsield which n was ejecmay lead toarth’s high l

eruptions af the sun an concentrw the magthe poles at is called

and its geos southwacles have


No 636329”.

ension duesion due toover time

compreheand propag

agnetic powhere a m

s thinner a also lowearea will

vity inside crossing it

uous flux, . The partiinteracts

cted during o magneticlatitudes.

are supposactivity, theration is innetic lines along the mthe auroragraphical cards whenhigher ene

e to the o the fact

above a

ension of gation of

oles. The magnetic

above the er than in

then be the polar ts border

the solar icles that with the a violent

c storms,

sed to be e Earth’s

ncreased. and are

magnetic al oval 0. coverage

n a solar ergy and

MagnetiIt is well (and sligwas arouthat the dand is no

If this vageographits preseSiberia.

ic pole drifknown forhtly toward

und 15 km/displacemeow stabilize

alue is kepthic pole in

ent direction

Figure 7. D

Figure

ft r many yead the West/yr from 18ent is acceed around

t constant 2017 and

n, the auro

Drift of the Nor

P

e 6. Auroral o

ars that thet), see left 830 to 1990elerating sin55 km/yr s

in the comreach Nor

oral oval w

rth magnetic

of 66

oval seen from

e North maimage on 0. Recent rnce the 19

since the be

ming years,rth Siberia ill move fro

Earth pole (le


m a satellite c

agnetic polthe followiresearches

990s (right eginning of

, the magnaround 20

om North A

eft) and its re


camera

le is driftinng figure. s (Chulliat, image of tf the 2000s

netic pole c030. If it doAmerica an

ecent accelera


No 636329”.

g toward tThe mean2009) hav

the followins.

could approes not defnd Canada

ation (right)

the North n velocity ve shown ng figure)

roach the flect from a towards

AurorasAt the pozero. Spthe gas mbetween When goemit elecenergy tocreate thduring gright. Thepropagatdisturbanenergy abeing chthe uppe

Yet somelectrons1000 eVlighter, adifferent directionreadily o

These vionosphe

The Auro

s oles the meeding elemolecules charged poing back tctromagneto a fundam

he so calledeomagnetie basic ideting disturnce; variouand therebharged, areer part of th

mething dos, with ene

V each, butalso have a

population. They arebserve the

variations iere.

ora Borealis s

magnetosphectrons pen

and atomsparticles anto their funtic waves mental statd polar auric storms

ea, howeverbance frous componby accelerae forced tohe Earth’s n

es flow eaergies arout the electra much smn, easily ae too few toem.

in the ma

shines above

P

here is lighnetrate the s in the altnd neutral mndamental and more te may geroras. The constitute

er, is that thom the Snents of thating char stream alneutral atm

arthwards und 500 elrons which

maller averaable to outo produce

gnetic field

e Bear Lake

of 66

hter and theEarth’s atmitudes betwmolecules state of enelectrons. nerate a radetails of han entire

he Earth’s un. As th

he Earth’s rged particong the ge

mosphere a

on those ectron volt

h move aloage energyrace the sa visible a

d lines ar

Red


e magneticmosphere ween 100 aand atoms

nergy the eThe trans

ay in the vhow high ediscipline magnetic fhe geomafield chan

cles to higeomagneticand the aur

field linests (eV). Soong with thy. Electronsolar wind aurora, but

re at the o

d and green A


c field strethrough thand 500 kms give the lexcited mo

sition from visible freqnergy partof space

field responagnetic fienge form, rh energiesc field lineroral mecha

s, a thin "olar wind phem, beings of 500 eand followinstrumen

origin of s

Aurora in Fairb


No 636329”.

ength goes he poles anm. These clatter someolecules anan excited

quency speicles are gscience in

nds to an old adjustsreleasing ms. These ps. Some eanism beg

"polar rainprotons havg about 20V are a co

w field linets aboard

scintillation

banks, Alaska

down to nd collide collisions e energy. nd atoms d state of ectra and enerated

n its own outwardly s to this magnetic particles,

end up in ins.

" of fast ve about 00 times

ompletely es in any satellites

ns in the

a

MagnetiThey area Coronaintense sstorms galso comlatitudes

MagnetiThese aSydney Cwhen thmagneticmagneticMagnetic

3.2.3 Io

Ionospheparticles layer of tdue to ththe Earth

The knowionisationmodelledlocation bubbles expectabevent oc

The link establishsolar evewell esta

Ionospheoccur unphysics, latitude iogeomagn

ic storms e the resultal Mass Ejstorms whigenerate ammonly ca.

ic sub-storre typicallyChapman e Interplanc activity tc storms, c sub-storm

onosphere

eric conditimoving in

the upper ahe penetrah’s magnet

wledge of n evolutiond as a funand the loformation,

ble to obsecurs.

between hed at this ents modeablished the

eric eventsnder low latherefore tonosphericnetic indice

t of significajection (CMle coronal

a higher TEalled ionos

rms y Auroral and Syun-netary Mato a southsub-storm

ms are also

e events an

ions are clspace bet

atmospheration of chatosphere.

the originn, throughction of th

ocal time. S travelling erve highe

disturbancstage. Thelling exist, en modellin

s in the higatitudes. Uthe monitoc events tees at this s

P

ant changeME) or Corholes are EC, TEC gspheric sto

sub-storms-Ichi Akusoagnetic Fiehward IMF

m cause a o commonl

nd relation

osely linketween the sre is due toarged parti

s of the n the total

he solar acSince a stionospher

er TEC va

ces in theerefore theif the link

ng ionosph

gher latitudUnder north

ring of geoendency. Thstage would

of 66

es in the spronal Hole,responsiblgradients aorms. The

s or Magnofu, they areld (IMF) hF was esta higher Ty called ion

n with geo

ed to the sosun and tho the illumiicles travel

nominal ionelectron c

ctivity (linkeronger solric disturba

alues and

e ionospheese events

between shere disturb

es do not hern latitudomagnetic he modellind be of the


peed of the, for instane for 27-daand scintil

ey may af

netic sub-sre triggeredhas a souablished b

TEC, TEC nospheric s

omagnetic

olar activityhe Earth. Tnation by tlling from t

nisation allcontent (Ted to the ar activity ances or Tionospheri

ere layer ahave not

solar eventbances turn

have the sdes eventsindices canng that can

e kind of a


e solar windnce. CME'say recurrenlations. Maffect any r

storms. Ided by a solauthward poy Don Fagradients

storms.

and solar

y through he “nominathe sun anthe sun tow

ows for thEC) paramsolar cycleleads to io

TIDs and Tic scintillat

and solar been modets and ionons possible

same origins are relaten help to en be expecshort-term


No 636329”.

d (i.e. gusts produce nt storms. Magnetic storegions up

entified in ar wind disolarity. Theirfield in 1and scin

r indices

physics of al” ionisationd disturbawards the

he modellinmeter. Thee), the seaonosphericTEC gradietions when

events is elled. Noneosphere eve.

ns than eved to geom

extrapolate cted from th forecast m

ts) due to the most Magnetic orms are p to low

1963 by turbance e link of 1966. As tillations.

f charged on of this

ances are Earth, in

ng of the e TEC is ason, the c storms, ents, it is n a solar

not well etheless, vents get

vents that magnetic northern

he use of modelling

(1 to 3 dexists, ththeir sev

RelationGeomagmagneticassociati‘K-factor’particles high eneneutral alower encombinedisplay.

The distumagnetoobservatallows tohas a ra(relative

The K-into customgeomagnestimate observatgeomagnthe locatgeomagnuseful mwas pubthrough Note thamoves to

days). Sinhe link beterity remai

n between netic indic

c activity ion of the ’ works. Th(usually e

ergy particlatom. The nergy stated effect of

urbance ofometer. Otories in ono keep tracange from to a quiet d

dex is thermers as snetic obser what thetory, but tnetic activition of the netic storm

map of the ablished in th

by an algoat as a storo lower latit

ce the pretween it anins still to b

Kp geomaces (Kp, Aon Earth.aurora withe aurora ielectrons) wes can ‘ex‘excited’ e

e, but in f many pho

f the geomOperation ne minute k of the cu0 to 9 andday) in the

refore updasoon as porvatory. Foe local Kthis wouldty is not alaurora us

m changes. approximahe June 1orithm tharm becometudes.

P

ediction of nd the probe establis

agnetic inAp and ap Author bh geomagns understowith neutraxcite’ (by celectron cathe proce

otons being

magnetic ficentres rintervals. Trrent state d is direct geomagne

ated every ossible. Thor locations

K-index wo be subjelways spatsually chanThe locati

ate location968 copy t essentiales more in

of 66

the impacobability of hed.

dex and ap...) are a briefly expnetic activiood to be cal atoms incollisions) van then ‘d

ess it releag released

eld may breceive mThe data iof the geo

tly related etic field ov

three hourhe K-indexs where thould be bect to somtially homonges geomon of the a

n of the auSky & Telelly average

ntense, the


ct of a soloccurrenc

auroras measure

plains somity and a bcaused by n the Earthvalence elede-excite’ aases a phfrom man

be measuremagnetome

s receivedomagnetic cto the maver a three

rs and the x is also nere are no

by looking me errors ogenous. Amagnetic laaurora ofteroral oval escope sees the K-ine edge of t


lar event oce of ionos

of the come of the bit about hthe interach's upper aectrons thaand returnhoton (a l

ny atoms re

ed by an ieter data d at or neaconditions

aximum ame-hour inter

informationnecessarilyo observato

at data from time

Another itematitude as tn takes onas a functie 0. The Kndices fromhe auroral


No 636329”.

occurrencespheric eve

onsequencideas be

ow the ‘K-ction of higatmosphereat are boun back to ilight particesults in th

nstrument from do

ar to ‘real-t. The K-ind

mount of flurval.

n is made y tied to aories, one from the

e to time m of interethe intensi the auroraion of the Kp index ism several boundary

e already ents and

ce of the hind the -index’ or h energy e. These nd to the its initial, cle). The he aurora

called a ozens of time’ and dex scale uctuation

available a specific

can only nearest

because est is that ity of the al oval. A Kp-index s derived stations.

y typically

The presindex or evolutionIndeed, abe predictype of epredictiothereforescintillati

Ionosphestormy (and the c

Figure 8

sence of aits deriva

n of geomaafter a solacted in ter

emission. Tn of Kp is

e to assessons.

ere conditminor, majcorrespond

IonoCon

Qui

Uns

Act

8. Relation be

auroras in tates. Althoagnetic indar emissiorms of timeTypically, w

usually dos the prese

ions are cjor and seding Kp, Ap

osphere ndition

iet

settled

tive

P

etween Kp ind

the auroraugh there dices and n (rays or

e range anwhen a parone by geoence of au

categorisevere). Thep and ap in

KI

0

2

3

of 66

dex and auror

l oval is clis no evidthe solar cmass ejec

nd severity rticular actiophysical inroras over

d into foue following ndices leve

Kp ndex

A

0-1 0

2 8

3 1


ras spreading

losely relatdent directcycle, the ction) the e

(auroras, ivity is obsnstitutes. Ta region a

ur categortable defin

el.

Ap Index (1)

0-7

8-15

6-29


g over North A

ted to the t link betwlink exists

effect of it storm type

served on tThis predicand therefo

ies: quiet,nes the ion

) ap index

<7

7 to <15

15 to <2


No 636329”.

America

intensity oween the los in the shover the Ee) accordinthe sun’s sction could ore the pre

unsettlednosphere c

x (2)

5

27

of the Kp ong-term

hort-term. Earth can ng to the surface a be used

esence of

d, active, condition

(2): http:/

3.2.4 C

In this taperturbatNote thascintillatitelecomm

Min

Maj

Sev

Ionosphere //www.astros

lassificatio

able we hations geneat the impons). Themunication

nor storm

jor storm

vere storm

condition andsurf.com/luxo

explained th

on of iono

ve summaerated by pact severe severity and positi

P

4

5

6

7

8

9

d geomagnetorion/indices-khat (1) is for d

ospheric p

arized triedmagnetic rity conce

impact inoning serv

of 66

4 3

5 5

6 1

7

8

9

tic indices (1)kp.htm NB: hdaily indices,

perturbatio

to classifyregion. Whrn the ionn the convices will be


30-49

50-99

00-

: http://www.http://www.sci

(2) is for 3 ho

ons

y the ionoshen availanosphere ntext of te discusse


27 to <4

48 to <8

80 to <1

140 <240

240 <400

>400

vhfdx.net/proi.fi/~fmbb/astour indices.

spheric eveable the prparametershe Efficied later.


No 636329”.

48

80

40

to

to

opindex.html tro/indices.htm

ent by souroxy are ins variabilitnSea2 pr

m => it is

rces and ndicated. ty (TEC, oject on

Ta

able 5. Classiffication of ion

P

nospheric per

of 66

rturbations (lo


ow latitude ef


ffects are not


No 636329”.

t reported, CLLS)

4 SpGN

4.1 ImpSpace Wa collectactivitiesbased co

The elecchange d

ace weaNSS (bib

pacts descWeather is a

ion of physs on Earth ommunicat

Figure 9. So

ctrically chadirection o

ather imbliog.)

ription a term whisical proceand in spations.

ome effects of

arged partiof propagat

P

mpacts o

ch has becesses, begace. Space

f space weath

icles of thetion, and c

of 66

on com

come acceginning at te weather s

her on comm

e ionosphechange the


mmunica

epted over the Sun ansignificantly

munications sy

re can attee phase an


ations sy

the past fend ultimatey impacts

ystems (Lanz

enuate, totnd amplitu


No 636329”.

ystems

ew years toely affectingground an

zerotti, 2010)

ally absorbde of radio

&

o refer to g human d space-

b, reflect, o waves.

The magresulting

- (1ex

- (2- (3- (4-

Space wflare actabsorptioresulting particles density tvariabilitypropagatnavigatio

In additioradio waground oespeciallshows thduring a an extrem

gnitude of from (xxx

) the variaxtreme ultra2) the solar 3) the gravi4) the vertic

weather in tivity. Suddon (PCA), from solaand EUV

through pay induced,tion, causion, primaril

on, ionosphave propagor satellite-ly in the eqhat fades osolar max

me space w

F

the impacspacecast

ability of thaviolet (EUr plasma entational atm

cal swelling

the ionosden ionosand geom

ar flare actiV enter thearticle injec, the resung intermity in the po

heric scintiation. This-to-aircraft quatorial beof more thaimum. Theweather ev

Figure 10. Ion

P

ct is depet-2020):

he solar raUV)); ntering the mospheric g of the atm

phere becspheric dismagneticalivity. Durine ionosphection and pulting spacttent or a c

olar regions

llations cans space we

transmissielt (+/- 20 dan 10 dB he level of avent is not

nospheric scin

of 66

endent on

adiation en

Earth's matides prod

mosphere d

comes morsturbances ly induced

ng these coere, increaphotoionizace weathercomplete bs and high-

n cause flueather phenions over tdegrees lahave been mplitude sknown.

ntillation mor


ionospher

tering the

agnetic fieluced by thdue to the

re intense (SID), io

d storms aonditions,

asing atmoation. Deper could sigblackout of-to-middle

uctuations inomena cathe frequetitude) but measured

scintillations

rphology (Bas


ric space w

upper atm

ld; e Sun anddaytime he

and hazanospheric are forms enhanced

ospheric neending on gnificantly f communilatitudes.

in the phasauses outancy range not only. T

d at L-Bands that may

su et al., 2002


No 636329”.

weather co

mosphere (

the Mooneating of th

ardous durstorms, pof space levels of e

eutral and the intensimpact ra

cations, ra

se and ampages on sa

of VHF toThe followids at high

y be reache

2)

onditions

(primarily

; he Sun.

ing solar polar-cap

weather energetic electron

ity of the adiowave adar, and

plitude of atellite-to-o L-band, ng figure latitudes

ed during

Several et al. 201& W. Mu

4.1.1 I

High frereferred horizon. especiallprevalenshipping propagatscientific

The daymoleculethe ionosreflectivecommunpass throlayer, singoing to,

At nightmoleculemerge inlayer has

During th(daytimeMHz (daThe onlysolar sto

A typicaoccurs aand elev(whetherlevels ret

relevant pu10, P. Canrtag 2014)

mpacts on

equency (3to as shorHF is a

ly near thet (non-miliindustries

tion and tc proof did

ytime ionizes in our upsphere, stre to HF sigications. Tough the Dnce some and comin

, solar raes. The D-lnto a singls a lower e

he active se), and durytime). Inte

y time strorm.

l strong soat time 0, nvated noisr or not it iturn to nor

ublicationsnon 2013,

).

n HF comm

3-30 MHzrtwave) relvaluable

e Earth’s potary) userss. From ththe MUF not come u

zing radiatpper atmosratify into lagnals belowThis is genD-layer, the

of your Hng back fro

adiation celayer compe layer, bu

electron den

sun, Earth’sing the querestingly, ng HF rad

olar and gnoted on ese. Almostncreases tmal, quiet

P

s from wheP. Harden

municatio

) point-to-y on the ioalternativeoles wheres of point-the 1920s (Maximum

until quite r

tion from sphere. Thayers, andw the MUFnerally calle closest toF signal w

om the E/F

eases andpletely disaut remain nsity than d

s plasma friet sun, vathe sun’s p

diation esca

geomagnetarth by 10t immediathe solar flconditions

of 66

ere this chan et al. 200

on

-point comonosphere e and come geostatioto-point HFonward,

m Useablerecently du

the sun sese free el

d called theF, reflectinled skip po the earthwill be abso layers for

d the free appears anreflective tdaytime lev

requency isaries from aplasma freapes the s

tic storm is0-30 minuteately, the lux). 30 mi.


apter is ba05, S. Oden

mmunicatioto propag

mplement nary satellF communradio ama Frequenc

uring the sp

strips eleclectrons ince D, E andg them baropagation’s surface.orbed by t2-6dB tota

electronsnd offers nto HF signvels, lower

s about 18about 10 Mquency va

sun is durin

s illustratees of noiseionizing rainutes or m


ased can bnwald et al

ns and bgate radio sto satellitelites are no

nications arateurs cleacy) to thepace age.

ctrons awacrease the F layers.

ack to eartn. The HF . This is cathe D-layeal path loss

s recombinno signal lonals. Howering the MU

8 MHz (nighMHz (nightries betweng a solar

d in Fig. 1e bursts (Tadiation inmore after


No 636329”.

be given (Ll. 2012, Ma

broadcastinsignals bee communot visible. Tre the aviaarly correle solar cy

ay from the electron d

The E/F lah for long signals m

alled the abr – in fact

s.

ne with thoss. The Eever, this cUF.

httime) to 3ttime) to aren 300–10flare also

15. The soType I, II, Increases tthe flare, H

Lanzerotti acAlester

ng (often yond the

nications, The most ation and ated HF

ycle. The

heir host density of ayers are distance

must also bsorption , twice –

heir host /F layers

combined

30+ MHz round 20 000 MHz.

called a

olar flare II bursts) the MUF HF noise

Shortly aa major gcause acausing signals. TK-Index wstorm (Kbecomes

after day 2,geomagnen HF blaca Polar CThis causewill be hig

K>6) can las very quie

Figure 11

, the shocketic storm. ckout. Elecap Absorpes blackouh (6–9), suast 12–24

et, producin

. Anatomy of

Table 6. G

P

kwave arrivHF noise lctrons from

ption (PCAt conditionufficient to hours. W

ng low nois

f a strong sola

Geomagnetic

of 66

ves, comprevels imm

m the shoA) event i.e

s on HF inalso trigge

When it finase levels on

ar and geoma

c indices and


ressing ourediately ris

ockwave ee. an incren the higheer auroral aally subsidn HF.

agnetic storm

HF noise leve


r magnetic se, and in nter the ease on the

er latitudesactivity. A mdes, our m

m and HF main

el impact


No 636329”.

field and tsevere cas

earth at the absorptio. The next major geom

magnetic fie

n impacts

triggering ses, may he poles, on of HF 3-hourly

magnetic eld often

4.1.2 Im

Small scthe evendirection frequencModerateoperatingband (~1

Amplitudand if thcorrect tcompriseof 15.5 dconsiderof the obThe Figu

Solar radThis is eclose to large beaare not re

During amight bedays owi

mpacts on

cale irregulaning hours of arrival o

cy is decree ionosphg in the V1.5GHz) civ

de scintillathe fade is the data es a constedB [ICAO,ring other dbservationsure 10 prov

dio bursts especially t

the directiamwidths eported.

an extremee unavailabing to scint

Table

mobile sa

arities oftecause sci

of signals oeased and heric scintHF and lovilian satell

tion, leads so long thsteam. Fo

ellation of 6 2007]. In

degrading fs have beevides indica

can interferue for geoion of the and low s

e space wble, or protillation.

P

e 7. Solar flare

atellite com

n found in intillation, iof satellite lead to in

tillation gew UHF balite commu

to messaghat the error examp66 LEO sa polar arefactors sucen observeative values

ere with VostationarySun (at ceignal-to-no

weather evovide a poo

of 66

e intensity an

mmunicat

the high aie rapid flusignals. Th

ncreased eenerally oand militaryunication sy

ge errors iror correctle, the L-

atellites thaeas, the fadch as multiped along ths for a sup

VHF, UHF y satellites ertain timeoise ratios

vent, L-banor quality


nd HF radio ef

ions (VHF

nd equatoructuations he effects oerror rates only affecty. More seystems (e.g

if the systeion code a-band Iridiat operates de marginpath and se equator

perstorm.

and L-banaround eqs of day), [Franke, 1

nd (~1.5GHof service


ffects

F-UHF and

rial regionsin the amof scintillaton comm

ts satelliteevere eveng. Iridium a

em fade mand interleium satellwith an av may not ignal outagand very f

nd commuquinox, whand for m

1996]. Effe

Hz) satellit, for betwe


No 636329”.

L-Band)

s (Figure 1plitude, phtion increas

municationse communts can deand Inmars

margin is exeaving is uite networverage fadbe sufficie

ges will occfew on pola

nications sen the sat

mobile systeects on pol

te commueen one a

0) during hase and se as the s signals. nications

egrade L-sat).

xceeded; unable to rk which e margin

ent when cur. Most ar areas.

satellites. tellites lie ems with lar areas

nications and three

4.1.3 Im

Ionospheare a nu2011; Ma

Coincidefor a fewDuring pmay be ain GNSShemisphGNSS w

Arriving associateperturbatcause laSmall-sc(ie rapidobservedserious a

Amplitudto loss oamplitudSCINDA include CGPS pos

mpacts on

eric space umber of cannucci et

ent with thew minutes particularly a number oS receiverere, due t

was first see

some 12-ed with ttions to th

arge-scale cale structud changes d at mediuand limiting

de scintillof carrier te scintillat

A network oC/No redusitioning inf

GNSS po

weather acompensatal., 1999).

e optical sito a few active pe

of bursts ovrs [Cerruti to an increen on 5 De

-24 hoursthe CME

he ionosph(10-1000k

ures (less tin amplit

um latitudeg problem.

ation, thattracking intions obseon 6 Decections excformation l

P

sitioning,

affects GNStory approa

gnature oftens of m

eriods, andver the couet al., 20

ease in raecember 20

behind t(Coronal

heric electrkm) wave-than 1km) tude and s and occ

t causes ran all receiverved withember 200ceed 25 dBasting for s

of 66

navigatio

SS transmaches (Ca

f the solar minutes, md especiallyurse of sev006; Cerru

adio noise 006, notabl

these promMass E

ron densitylike structuare also g

phase) of urs at equ

apid changvers. The Ashtech

06 at AncoB, intermittseveral min


n and timi

missions in nnon, 200

flare, solaay be dety associatveral days.uti et al., interferen

ly at solar m

mpt effectEjection). Ty over largures and generated

the signauatorial and

es in the cfollowing fZ-XII GP

on. During tent loss onutes (Car


ing (PNT)

a number 09; Hernán

r radio burected at Gted with a SRBs can2008] loc

ce. The eminimum.

ts are theThe latterge portionsgradients and these

als. Scintild high latit

carrier-to-nfigure shoS receivethe SRB,

of lock, andrano et al.,


No 636329”.

systems

of ways andez-Pajare

rsts (SRBsGNSS freq

superstorn cause loscated in thffect of a

e plasma r indirectlys of the glin the ion

e cause sclation is nudes, whe

oise ratio, ws an exar from theobserved

d complete, 2008).

and there es et al.,

s), lasting quencies. rm, there ss of lock he sunlit SRB on

particles y cause lobe and osphere.

cintillation not often ere it is a

can lead ample of e AFRL- impacts e loss of

Figure 12. receiver. T

The follo20 m in v

GPS C/No fadhe gray-scale

owing figurevertical.

Figure 13. G

des on (left) Le plot shows

e shows th

DOP degrada

P

L1 and (rightthe measured

he degrada

ation and GPS

of 66

) L2 on 6 Decd solar radio

tion of GP

S errors at An


cember 2006 flux (AFRL-S

S positions

ncon, 6 Dec. 2


at Ancon witCINDA projec

s up to 60

2006 (Carrano


No 636329”.

th an Ashtechct, Carrano et

m in horizo

o et al., 2008)

h Z-XII GPS t al, 2008)

ontal and

Phase stracking messagemeasurelocked.

An examThe anapositioninfor ROTI

Figure 14.

Loss of particulamessageand EGN

cintillationloop to lo

e which ies range to

mple of phaalysis is frng service index pres

. Phase scinti

f phase lorly importae. To mitigaNOS, emp

n that suffiose lock includes th

o the satell

ase scintillarom the Ns (RTK ansentation,

illations, ROT1

ock in recant as thate this, saloy a mes

P

ciently distimpacting he satelliteite, is fairly

ations in Noorvegian M

nd PPP) noROTI is the

TI index and e18 March 2015

ceivers usese receiv

atellite basesage symb

of 66

turbs the cthe recepe ephemey robust to

orway duriMapping Aominally ate rate of ch

errors on vert5 (S. Jacobse

sed in highvers needed augmenbol rate of


carrier phasption of therides. Th

phase sci

ng a magnAgency wht a cm levehange of T

tical high precen et al., 2015

h integrity d to regulntation sysf 500 symb


se causes e importa

he code tntillation a

netic stormhich operael or less (

TEC).

cision GPS p5)

applicatioarly read tems (SBAbols s-1, to


No 636329”.

the receivnt navigatracking lond usually

m is given hates high p(see also c

ositions – Tro

ns (eg avthe satel

AS), such aogether wi

er phase tion data oop, that y remains

hereafter. precision chapter 6

omseo 17-

iation) is lite data

as WAAS th a rate

one half illustratesprecise p

Figure 15. Fugro)

Unfortunfrom a sua comple

A multi-cmitigationof such maritime

Hereafte

Single frAll GNSdepende

encoder as the losspositioning

Missing num

ately, the uperstorm ete loss of

constellation approachapproach

e navigation

er we repor

requency S systems

ent on a co

and repeatses of lock

service.

mber of track

estimates are poor. Pservice for

on (GPS, Gh for amplto a sup

n, the upda

rt some GP

civilian nas have thempensatin

P

ed messagk on GNS

ked GPS+GL

of the disP. Cannonr a period o

GLONASSitude and

per storm ate of the G

PS services

avigation se option ofg model of

of 66

ges to deaSS receive

LONASS sate

ruption to n for a UK rof one day

S, Galileo, phase scinis not dem

GNSS equi

s

systems. f operatingf the signal


al with bursers occurri

ellites (at L1

GNSS caurisk analysis quite po

Beydou) isntillations. monstratedpment onb

g in a singl delay due


st errors. Tng on the

& L2), 24 Se

used by scis makes t

ossible.

s generallyHowever t

d. Moreoveboard ships

gle frequene to the ele


No 636329”.

The followie Fugro’s

eptember 20

cintillation he assump

y presentethe real rober, in the s will take a

ncy mode ectron dens

ng figure real-time

11 (source

resulting ption that

ed as the bustness case of

a long.

and are sity in the

ionosphethe startposition significanaverage due to sdilution oapproximthe start of metreperturbatDuring thlost.

Dual freqGPS is (1227 Moperationavailableionosphemaintain and gradwill in facand end main phasuperstofrequenccomplete

4.1.4 A

The precsuch as Area AugService (

During thunavailabnavigatiocontinuo

ere. On avt (and end

and navintly degradmodel ass

scintillationof precisionmately 40 m

and end oes. Duringtions will ohis period,

quency cibeing enhHz) and anal over the for civil eric model

accurate odients. Howct be morephases of

ase of theorm the becy operatioely lost.

ugmented

ceding spathose des

gmentation(EGNOS).

he large geble from on. It shouusly availa

verage, the) of an exigation soded due tosumed by t, not all s

n. Single frm for arounof an extreg the maioccur and it is likely

ivilian navanced with new L5 frhe next fe

operationand recei

operation ewever, the e prevalentf a storm,

e event poest that c

on. In case

d navigatio

ce weatheigned for a

n System (W

eomagneticWAAS foruld be noable and th

P

e model coxtreme evelution from

o a large mthe receive

satellites wrequency Gnd 99% of me space n phase it is likely that positio

vigation syh a secondrequency (ew years. ns. Dual fvers equip

even in thedual frequ

t at the lowthere will

osition and can be exe of high s

on system

r vulnerabiaircraft navWAAS) an

c storms inr approximted that W

he integrity

of 66

mpensatesent when tm a singlmismatch ber. Moreov

will be tracGPS is spe

the time. Tweather eof the evthat scint

onal and n

ystem. d open (ci(1176 MHzGalileo w

frequency pped for due event of suency recewer frequebe significnavigation

pected is scintillations

ms and othe

ilities also vigation and the Euro

n October mately 30 WAAS horof the sys


s for ~50%the ionosple frequenbetween thver, during ked and th

ecified to prTypically, Gevent errorsvent, very tillation willnavigationa

ivil) signal z). These f

will also adoperation

ual frequesignificant eeivers do nencies. Thiscant dilutionn solutionsa margin

s level, the

er differen

apply to aund landing.opean Geos

2003, verthours - b

rizontal nastem was n


% of the ionphere is higncy GNSShe actual iothese peri

here will brovide horizGPS errorss might be

significanl occur onal solutions

at the cufrequenciedd to the

obviates ncy operatelectron de

not mitigates means thn of preciss will likelyal improvee service m

ntial syste

ugmented . These incstationary

tical navigabut not cravigation gnot lost. So


No 636329”.

nospheric ghly distur

S receiver onosphereiods it is likbe a consezontal erro

s are belowe measurednt electron all satellit

s will be co

rrent L2 fres will beco

number othe need

tion will beensity pertue scintillatiohat during sion and duy be lost. ement ovemay be pa

ms

navigation clude the UNavigation

ation guidaritical for guidance rolar radio b

delay. At rbed, the

will be e and the kely that, equential ors below w 5 m. At d in 100s n density te paths. ompletely

requency ome fully f signals

d for an e able to urbations on which the start

uring the During a er single artially or

systems US Wide n Overlay

ance was maritime

remained burts also

affect theWAAS lointegrity w

In an extservice lparticulaprevalentype of reGPS sigto-noise extremelionosphecombine operationapproach

4.2 MonOn the Uregional communthat inclufor the eq

The Air productsMaps an

e WAAS aoss of verwas mainta

treme evenloss is likerly sensitivt during a eceiver at nals. Thesratios thany sensitiv

ere. Under to causens – howeh or berthin

nitoring spUS, the AF

nowcastiication and

ude passivquator.

Force Wes such as: d location

availability. rtical guidaained.

nt, the systely during ve to medisolar supetheir refere

se semi-con normal ce to phassuperstorm a break ever not cng.

pace weatFRL has deng systemd navigatio

ve UHF/L-b

eather AgHF comm of the auro

P

The Deceance for 15

tem metricsthe main

ium scale erstorm. Fuence statiodeless trac

code and cse scintillam conditionin service

critical for

ther serviceveloped Sm to suon systemsband GPS

ency has illuminatio

oral oval.

of 66

mber 20065 minutes.

s will be imphase. Auspatial graurthermoreons that tracking rece

carrier trackation on thns, spatial

e of precismaritime

ces on comSCINDA (Spport ress. It is a rscintillation

also deven, HF Com


6 SRB (the As with t

mpaired at tugmented adients in e, augmentacks the phivers requiking. This he L2 siggradients

sion approanavigation

mmunicatScintillatioearch an

real time gn receivers

eloped its mm Point-to


e largest othe 2003 s

the start anand differthe ionospted systemhase of theire significaresults in t

gnal causeand trackinach and on on high

ions and Gon Networkd users

ground-bass. A 2-hr fo

own servo-Point, es


No 636329”.

n record) cstorms, op

nd end pharential systphere whicms (currente military eantly highethe receiveed by a dng loss areother high

seas but

GNSS k Decisionof space

ed sensororecast is

vice providstimated G

caused a perational

ases and tems are

ch will be ly) use a

encrypted er signal-ers being disturbed e likely to

integrity for port

n Aid), a e based r network available

ding key PS Error

Unfortun

The SWWeatherGPS com

http://ww

ately, the a

WPC for Spr. The followmmunities.

ww.swpc.no

access to s

pace Weatwing plots One can s

oaa.gov/co

P

such servic

ther Predishow the d

see that it i

ommunities

of 66

ces is restr

iction Cendedicated s not easily

s/radio-com


ricted.

nter is the pages for ty applicabl

mmunicatio


reference the radiocole for polar

ns


No 636329”.

in terms oommunicatr navigation

of Space tions and n.

http://wwdashboa

In the paGeomag

The SPWcharacte

ww.swpc.noard

age, R-S-Gnetic storm

WC has eeristics pres

oaa.gov/co

G code and ms.

establishedsented in th

P

ommunities

colours co

d 5 levels he followin

of 66

s/global-pos

orrespond

of intensg table.


sitioning-sy

to the Rad

ity for eac


ystem-gps-

dio blackou

ch parame


No 636329”.

-communit

uts – Solar

eter with t

ty-

storms –

the main

GeomagScale dG5 E

G4 S

G3 S

G2 MG1 MSolar RaScale dS5 E

S4 S

S3 S

S2 M

S1 MRadio BlScale dG5 E

G4 S

netic stormdescriptor Extreme

Severe

Strong

Moderate Minor adiation stodescriptor Extreme

Severe

Strong

Moderate

Minor ackouts (R

descriptor Extreme

Severe

ms (G) Effects HF (high fareas for days HFnavigation

intermittenproblems m

HF radio p

- orms (S)

Effects complete bthrough theextremely

blackout oincreased n

degraded Hposition er

effects on Hpolar cap lpossibly af

minor imp

R) Effects HF Radio:sunlit side radio contaNavigationgeneral avifor many herrors in pomay spread

HF Radio:Earth for oNavigation

P

frequency)one to two

F radio propan degraded f

nt satellite nmay occur, H

propagation

blackout of He polar regiodifficult. f HF radio cnavigation e

HF radio prorrors likely

HF propagalocations ffected. acts on HF

Complete Hof the Earth

act with marn: Low-freqiation systemhours, causinositioning fod into the ni

HF radio cone to two hn: Outages o

of 66

) radio propo days, sate

agation sporfor hours, lo

navigation anHF radio m

can fade at

HF (high freons, and po

communicaterrors over s

opagation th

ation throug

radio in the

HF (high freh lasting forriners and e

quency navigms experienng loss in po

for several hight side. ommunicati

hours. HF raof low-frequ


pagation mellite navig

radic, satellw-frequenc

nd low-freqay be interm

higher latitu

equency) cosition errors

tions througseveral days

hrough the p

gh the polar

e polar regio

equency**) r a number oen route aviagation signance outagesositioning. I

hours on the

ion blackouadio contact uency navig


may be impoation may

ite y radio navi

quency radiomittent, udes,

ommunicatis make navi

gh the polar s are likely. polar region

regions, and

ons

radio blackof hours. Thators in this als used by mon the sunliIncreased sasunlit side

ut on most olost during

gation signal


No 636329”.

ossible in mbe degrad

igation disru

o navigation

ons possibleigation oper

regions and

ns and navig

d navigation

kout on the ehis results insector.

maritime anit side of theatellite navigof Earth, wh

f the sunlit this time.

ls cause incr

many ed for

upted n

e rations

d

gation

n at

entire n no HF

nd e Earth gation hich

side of

reased

G3 S

G2 M

G1 M

Table 8.Ma

On the Ededicate

The follothe Ionoson L1 sig

Strong

Moderate

Minor

ain characteris

European sd to space

owing figurspheric wegnal GPS f

error in ponavigation

HF Radio:contact forNavigation

Navigationminutes. HF Radio:sunlit side Navigation

stics of the S

side, ESA he weather. h

re presentseather overfrequency.

P

ositioning fon possible on

Wide area r about an hn: Low-freq

n: Degradati

Weak or mof the Earth

n: Low-freqSWPC R-S-G i

has develohttp://swe.s

s the varior Europe (

of 66

or one to twon the sunlit s

blackout ofour on sunli

quency navig

ion of low-f

minor degradh, occasiona

quency navigndicators

oped the sssa.esa.int

us domainTEC conte


o hours. Minside of Earth

f HF radio cit side of Eagation signa

frequency n

dation of HFal loss of radgation signa

space situt/

ns of servicent) and 1


nor disruptih. ommunicati

arth. als degraded

avigation si

F radio commdio contact. als degraded

uational aw

ces with thhour ionos


No 636329”.

ons of satel

ion, loss of

d for about a

ignals for te

munication

d for brief in

wareness w

he current spheric err

lite

radio

an hour ns of

on

ntervals

web site

page for ror range

4.3 CLSForecast

Modellingsatellite oactivity, froutinely (Drag Tealtitudes performeObservamade at

As an opFrench Set Chimieservice toprocessicleaning solar fluxnetwork predictioimprovespredicted

ftp://ftpse

In order tmodel baapply the

S Space Wt of solar flu

g the uppeorbits at lowfor which thused as a

emperaturelower than

ed by the Ntory of Jap15, 8, 3.2,

perator of LSpace agene de l’Envio nowcast ng consiststhem from

xes on a 30processingn made bys the alongd values ar

edr.cls.fr/pu

to further imased on thee CLS neur

Weather seux index fo

er atmosphw altitude (he 10.7 cm

a solar proxe Model [Brn 500 km [DNobeyama pan, on an and 1.8 cm

Low Earth Oncy (CNESronnementand predic

s in retrievm solar flare0 days horig. The perfy the NOAAg-track orbire available

ub/previso

mprove thee solar maral network

P

rvices or satellite o

ere density(<1500 km

m radio fluxxy. Howeveruinsma, 2Dudok de WRadio Obsoperationam.

Orbit satellS) has contt et de l’Esct the leveling the obse peaks witizon is comformance oA/SWPC (Stal error. Te at:

l/solarflux

e predictiongnetogram

k method to

of 66

orbit predic

y is essentm). Density x (the F10.7er, it has be015]) perfoWit et al., 2servatory, aal 7/365 ba

lites and hetracted CLSpace, Orlé of radio fluserved datath an auto-

mputed for of the 30 cmSpace WeaThe observe

n, it is planms to forecao predict th


ction needs

tial for nowvariations

7 measuredeen demonorms better2014]. Thea branch osis. Additio

ence a useS and LPC

éans, Francux at thesea from Nob-regressiveeach wavem predictioather Predied data sin

nned to useast the solahe geomag


s

wcasting anare primard at Penticnstrated thar with the 3se measur

of the Natioonal measu

er of densitC2E (Laborce) to create wavelengbeyama ane method. Aelength usion is better iction Centnce 1951 a

e a magnetar index at gnetic index


No 636329”.

d for predirily driven bcton, Canadat the DTM

30 cm radiorements ar

onal Astronurements a

ty models, atoire de Pte an opera

gths. The dnd PentictoA forecast ng a neurathan the 1

ter), and it and the 30-

tic flux tran30 cm, an

x.

cting by solar da) is

M-2013 o flux for re omical are

the Physique ational aily

on and of the

al 0.7 cm slightly -days

nsport d also to

Figure 16 the 30 pre

ForecasHigh eneThe minivehicles origins o

The Van South At

The cosm

- Example of edicted value

st of Solar ergy chargeaturization(launchersf space rad

Allen beltstlantic Anom

mic rays co

a forecast files (purple). N

Energeticed particlesn and the ds, satellitesdiation:

s, where thmaly and is

onsist in hig

P

e containing:B: The data h

c Particless are well kigitization o

s, probes) m

he protons s not direct

gh energy

of 66

: a descriptivehave been tru

purpose.

s Events foknown to bof electronmore vulne

and electrotly modulat

particles, b


e header (orancated in tim

or space vbe hazardoics and log

erable to ra

ons are trated by sola

but they ha


ange), the 81 ome and in wav

vehicle opeus for on-b

gic circuits adiation. Th

apped, affear activity,

ave very low


No 636329”.

observed valuvelength for re

erations board electhave made

here are dif

cts mostly

w fluxes,

ues (blue), eadability

tronics. e space fferent

the

The solaelectroni

Based ond’InstrumPhysiqueRechercto their cSpace, Adata andBased onproton evalso avaput in plaperformesupportethe ISS rESA/Gaïpoint ope

ar proton flacs. They a

n initial stumentation ee Théoriquhe Aérospa

customers, Arianespacd images fron several cvent is estiilable onlinace in caseed during thed the ISS refueling anïa mission erations.

are, are thealso feed th

dies in paren Astrophye, Ecole Patiale), CLwhich are

ce). The seom the Sucriteria estamated and

ne on a sece of severehe five ESA(Internationnd propulsfor the pos

Fi

P

e most danhe radiation

rtnership wysique, PaolytechniqS providesinstitutionarvice consn, either froablished upd a techniccured web e increase oA/ATV (Aunal Space ion operati

st-launch m

gure 17 - Exa

of 66

ngerous can belts.

with LESIA ris-Meudonue) and ON

s since 200al (ESA) orists in a huom space opon the resal report ispage. In adof solar acttomatic TraStation) doions. The s

maneuvers

ample of a bu


uses of pro

(Laboratoin ObservatNERA (Off06 an operar commercuman analyor from grosearch studs sent by e-ddition, an tivity. As anansfert Vehocking/undservice wasand the in

lletin for ATV


oblems on

re d’Etudetory), CPHfice Nationaational serv

cial (Airbus ysis of a wiound baseddies, a leve-mail to theautomatic

n examplehicle) miss

docking opes also activtegration to

V-2


No 636329”.

the on-boa

s SpatialesHT (Centre ale d’Etudevice totally Defence a

ide range sd instrumeel of risk of e customerc alert proce, the servic

sions and aerations, asve during to the Lagra

ard

s et de es et de tailored

and set of nts. f solar rs. It is essing is ce was actively s well as he ange L2

ForecasThe GNSIn order tproductsscintillaticollaboraCLS hasinterest o

Based onempiricareceiversorder to GNSS si

The servover 24 han autom(bottom oDependinand the r

st of low laSS positionto plan crit

s, the oil anon forecasation with ts set up a sof the off-s

n observatl model of s at 1 s ratepredict up gnal.

vice produchours (see

matic updatof Figure 1ng on the cresulting lo

atitude ionning may bical operat

nd gas off-ssts. Followihe Telecom

service to mhore indus

tions from dscintillatione (or 30 s tto 6 hours

cts for a giv top of Figute every ho8) . They acustomer n

oss of satel

P

nospheric se severelytions requirshore compng a 3 yeam Bretagnemonitor andstry.

dedicated in has beento completein advanc

ven locatioure 18, 18 our, as welare availabneeds, CLSllite availab

of 66

scintillatioy degraded ring high repanies are

ars study (2e graduated predict th

ionospherin establishee the covee the level

n consist inhours of nl as a daily

ble on a secS can also bility.


ons during ion

eliability aninterested

2011-2013)e engineerinhe equatori

c monitorsed. The verage) are iof amplitu

n an hourlyowcast an

y maximumcured web provide the


nospheric snd precisiond in obtainin) funded byng school aial scintillat

in the Guiery last datantegrated ide scintilla

y histogramd 6 hours o

m time seriepage or by

e forecast


No 636329”.

scintillation n from GNSng regular y Total andand Fugro-tions in are

nean Gulf,a from geointo the mo

ation (S4) o

m of the S4of forecastes over 1 my e-mail. for each sa

events. SS

d in -Topnav, eas of

, a odetic odel in of the

4 level ), with

month

atellite

Fiigure 18 - Exa

P

ample of a sc

of 66

cintillation for


recast produc


ct (CLS sourc


No 636329”.

ce)

5 ExtEa

The follorecorded

T

A summradiationhereafter

treme srth

owing tabled impacts o

Table 9. Extrem

mary of the storm anr.

space w

e summarizon Earth.

me Space We

e space wnd (c) the

P

weather

zes the ma

eather Events

weather keyradio blac

of 66

events

ain known

s With Record

y warning ckout () an


and est

extreme sp

ded Impacts o

: (a) the nd their im


timated

pace weat

on Earth (Mac

geomagnmpacts des


No 636329”.

d impac

her events

cAlester, 2014

etic stormscription a

cts on

s and the

4)

, (b) the are listed

5.1 NotOn 23 Jeruptionsthe eruphave exp1859 (se The folloterrestria

Table 10. Sp

ta about thuly 2012, s ever recotion occur

perienced aee also Figu

owing plot al systems.

pace weather

he 23rd Julthe NASAorded [Bakred just 1 an extremeure 19).

is an histo

P

r main warnin

y 2012 soA STEREOker et al., 2week earl

e geomagn

ory of sola

of 66

ngs and estim

lar event A spacec2013]. Fortlier, Baker netic storm

ar cycles,


mated Earth im

craft witnestunately, it r et al. [20

rivaling th

major eve


mpact (MacAl

ssed one owas not E

13] suggee famous C

nts and re


No 636329”.

ester, 2014)

of the largEarth direcst that EaCarrington

eported im

est solar cted. Had rth could Event of

pacts on

Figure 19. environmesunspot cy

Yearly sunsnt on largely

ycles (Lanzero

spot numbers ground-baseotti, 2012).

P

s with indicaed technical s

of 66

ated times ofsystems. Hor


f selected mrizontal axis a


ajor impactsare the conve


No 636329”.

of the solarentional num

r-terrestrial bers of the

6 SWob

This chadetails th

6.1 IonoOne criticnear readata prov

A large rthat netwproducts

W impacservatiopter details

he impacts

osphere mcal inputs fl time. Thevider to a la

Figure 20. G

range of Gwork whichs responses

cts on Gon s the analyof space w

monitoringfor such ane Internatioarge comm

GNSS perman

GNSS receh contributes to a given

P

NSS: an

ysis methoweather on

g network nalysis is toonal GNSSmunity of us

nent stations

iver types e to have n ionosphe

of 66

nalysis

d and the n GNSS.

(Permaneo have acc

S service osers.

in the polar r

from manya better uneric perturb


method

means of o

ent GNSS cess to the r IGS (http

region (> 60°N

y different nderstandibation.


d and m

observation

stations) raw data o

p://www.igs

N) that partici

manufactong of the R


No 636329”.

means of

n to charac

of GNSS sts.org/) is on

ipate to IGS

ors are avaRF signal

f

cterize in

tations in ne of the

ailable in and final

6.2 GNSThe basformat. Tscintillati

RINEX fsystem a

https://ig

The obseSR1, SRphase obNetCDF

A list of They are

- Lo- Em- Ab- G

of

T

SS key pasic inputs dThe 1 Hz on.

for Receiveand multi-c

scb.jpl.nas

ervations fR2 (RINEXbservationsformat.

GNSS sige based on

oss of lockmpirical Scbsolute VTradient ROf the rate o

TRIMBSEPT P TPS OTHALESNOVATNOVATSEPT PTRIMBASHTETRIMB JPS

ASHTELEICA GRTRIMB

Table 11. Vari

rameters data are treceiver s

er Indepenonstellatio

sa.gov/igsc

files includX convents and Sri t

gnal Key P per station

, cintillation iTEC (VerticOTI index (f change o

BLE NETRS POLARX2 DYSSEY_E AVIONICS TEL OEM‐4 TEL OEM‐3 POLARX2E BLE NETR5 ECH Z‐XII3 BLE NETR8 LEGACY ECH UZ‐12 RX1200PRO BLE NETRS

P

iety of receive

relevant fthe raw Gample rate

ndent Exchn.

cb/data/form

e the folloion, Pi & Cto signal to

Parametersn statistics

ndex, cal Total El(as the staof TEC for s

LEICAT

LEILEIC

STR

T

TT

R

of 66

er types in th

for ionospGNSS obsee is prefer

hange is th

mat/rinex30

wing data:Ci corresp

o noise rati

s have beeand relate

ectronic Condard devsampled ev

A GRX1200GGTRIMBLE 570ASHTECH Z‐XCA GRX1200A GRX1200+GSEPT POLARXRIMBLE 4000NOV OEMV3ASHTECH Z1TRIMBLE NETTPS GB‐1000TPS GB‐1000TPS NETG3

TRIMBLE 470TRIMBLE 570

Receiver type


he GPS perma

heric effecervations crable to pr

he standar

00.pdf

: Epoch, Ppond to saio). They a

en defined ed to:

ontent) iation, for every secon

GPRO 00 X 0PRO GNSS X2 0SSI 3 18 TR5 0 0 3 00 00

es


anent network

cts analyscollected inroperly cov

rd format f

PRN, P1, Ptellite to g

are internal

for the ion

example tand).

LEICA GRX12TRIMBLJPS LEGTPS E_

ASHTECHTPS NEJPS EG

ASHTECH JPS EUROTPS ODYSASHTECHLEICA R

TRIMBLETHALESTPS NET


No 636329”.

k

is n RINEX ver the ion

for all GNS

P2, C1, C2ground ranlly transfor

nospheric

aken over

200GGPRO E 4700 GACY _GGD H Z‐XII3T ETG3 GGDT Z‐XII3T OCARD SSEY_E H UZ‐12 RS500 NETR8 S 5202 T‐G3A

standard nopsheric

SS multi-

2, L1, L2, ge, Li to

rmed into

analysis.

1 minute

The follo

Table 12

6.3 StatIt shouldpositioninare of hispan – mindicating

owing table

2. Key parame

tic positiod be noted ng data coigh interes

more than og an exter

details the

eters for iono

oning datahere that

oming fromst as they one solar crnal source

P

e Key para

ospheric effec

the analys

m a permaoffer a larcycle. Theye, the sen

of 66

meters tha

cts analysis d

sis which ianent GNSrge geogray will then sitivity to d


at are cons

derived per sta

is envisageS station

aphical covpermit to vdifferent re


idered.

ations from G

ed here isnetwork. Hverage andverify geogeceiver eq


No 636329”.

GNSS/RINEX

restricted However sd also a lagraphic coruipments

raw data

to static uch data

arge time rrelations (different

manufacopportun

Moreoveand statsituationsship disp

6.4 DynIt was nevents. describe

ctors collocnities to ana

er, one canic data wis that will f

placement t

namic posnot possiblThe oppod on chapt

cated sitesalyse signi

n think thall provide face additithat may n

itioning dae to find rtunity willter 8.

P

) at least ficant past

at all the resome opton effects

need more

ata (real nany real Gl be given

of 66

in case oft ionospher

esults that timist figurelike multiptime for sig

navigationGPS data n with the


f severe stric events.

will be obes for the

paths, non gnal lockin

n conditioncollected on board


torms. The

btained wit projectiongeodetic hg (TBC)...

ns) on ships

d ship spe


No 636329”.

ey will also

h the methn on dynahigh gain a

during ionecific camp

o provide

hodology mic ship

antennas,

nospheric paign as

7 GP(17

This eveanalysis

7.1 MagA very hi

This chaafter theexcessivto 200 sf

The herethe originthe Earth

PS impa7‐18th Ment has beas it is the

gnetic eveigh planetr

apter summe solar maxve values cfu).

eafter plotsn of the evh.

cts ‐ An March20

een selecte worst that

ent characry geomagn

marizes theximum. Th

compare to

s summarizvent, the p

P

nalysis o015) ted for at occurred

cteristics netic index

e solar andhe F10.7 pthe value

ze all the perturbation

of 66

of a maj

high latituin 2015.

x Kp (=8) ha

d magnetic parameter during the

parametersn of the so


jor rece

ude GPS

as been se

event. Mawas equaprevious s

s that controlar wind an


nt mag

ionospheri

een on Mar

arch 2015 ial to 120 ssolar maxim

ribute to thnd finally t


No 636329”.

netic ev

ic effect u

rch, 18th, 2

is located sfu which imum in 200

he understathe connec

vent

use case

2015.

one year s not an 02 (close

anding of ction with

The folloflare staejection (GOES),particles

owing plot rting at 0(Cactus in located iflux at 10

series illus1:15 UT cnstrument)in Earth’s Mev energ

P

strate the ocoming fro). The Ge

geographgy level.

15 March 201

of 66

origin of thom an actiostationaryic equator

15 solar even


he solar evive region y Operatiorial plane,

nt monitoring


vent which generatin

onal Envirorecorded


No 636329”.

is an intenng a corononmental S

energetic

nse solar nal mass Satellites

c protons

In the fochangesthe solarsudden a

The GOEnanoTesdata as produce the nightin marchcompresexposingthan thedemonstthe smaassociateone sign

ollowing p, BZ < 0 inr wind excacceleratio

ES plot shoslas (nT). B

a result oa stronger

tside. Durinh 17th), wession of thg satellites e geomagtrate the Ealler field ed with theature of a “

plots, the Andicates facitation indon and dens

ows the 1-Before and of magnetr magnetic ng the evene can notee Earth's to the Intenetic field

Earth's magvalues inde stretchin“substorm”

P

ACE sateavourable cduced by tsity increas

minute aveafter the e

tospheric cfield on th

nt and whee the data magnetop

erplanetary d, that’s egnetopausdicate strong and sub” that resul

of 66

llite providconnectionhe chargese of the s

eraged parevent, we ccurrents syhe dayside en the sate

drop to hause into Magnetic

explain whe compres

ong currenbsequent rts in aurora


des informn with the d particlesolar wind is

rallel compcan observystems thaof Earth a

ellite is on thigh negatthe geosyField (IMF

hy the dassion. On nts in the elease of a at Earth’s


mation on Earth mag

s ejected ds clearly vi

ponent of thve a diurnaat, at geond weakerthe daysidetive valuesynchronous). As the IM

ata are sothe nightsmagnetot

energy in s high latitu


No 636329”.

the magnegnetic field during the sible.

he magnetal variationosynchronor magnetic e (around s. This is ds orbit bouMF is mucho small, aside (here tail that aEarths tai

udes.

etic field but also CME. A

ic field in in these

ous orbit, fields on

18h UTC due to a undaries, h smaller and also Europe),

are often l. This is

7.2 SBAThe pertMarch 2service a

AS perturbturbations 015 are p

availability

15

bations (Ethat have

lotted. On(red color c

P

March 2015 s

GNOS) e been obe can seecorrespond

of 66

solar event tra

bserved one in the ced to 99% o


ansport to Ea

n EGNOS enter that tof time for t


arth

service athe geograhe HPL & V


No 636329”.

around the aphical areVPL servic

17-18th ea of the ces).

Context

Imagine navigatoGPS sysDGPS syincreaseposition. centred every 15

EGNOS (horizont

of the app

that a shr’s problemstem aloneystem, thed accuracyThe level

on the shi50 seconds

has been tally) 99%

plication (

hip wishesm is how te cannot ee combinedy and enabl of confidep’s curren

s that it rem

designed of the tim

P

EGNOS so

s to enter to ascertainsure the

d use of Gbles him toence, or tht position

mains inside

to guarantme. In the

of 66

ource)

a port inin that his reliability o

GPS and EGo define a lhe Horizonthat assese the circle

tee the poevent of


n condition position iof his posiGNOS offeevel of conntal Protecsses the rise.

sition withan anoma


ns of redus accuratetion. Wherers the navnfidence coction Levelsk to the s

in a maximaly in the


No 636329”.

uced visibie and reliare there is vigator sigorrespondil (HPL), isship to be

mum radiusGPS cons

ility. The able. The

no local nificantly ng to his

s a circle 10-7 for

s of 40m stellation,

EGNOS guaranterisking a

7.3 GNSThe resuas detailNational optimal (

In the cafavourabare prese

7.3.1 O

When anstations 17:00 an

An examdefined) The effeoccurred

warns theed. This s

collision w

Figure

SS perturbults presened in the pprogram o

(no mask, n

ase of shible. As a coented here

Observed

nalysing L2during tha

nd 18:00 TU

mple is shoat Reykjav

ect affect sd several tim

e navigatosystem en

with the har

21. Horizonta

bations annted hereafprevious cof space gno interfere

ip navigationsequence shall be c

GNSS L2

2 losses oat day, oneU, another

own hereavik. On canseveral sames in the

P

or within 6ables the rbour walls

al Protection

nalysis fter are ba

chapter. Noeodesy. Thence, fixed

on, the coce the pertconsidered

Losses m

of lock of te can seeis between

after with tin see that uatellites an

evening.

of 66

6 secondsnavigator

s.

Level (HPL) i

ased on theote that thohe environ

d antenna w

onditions fourbations eas undere

maps (at io

the GNSS two epison 20:00 an

ime seriesup to 60 %d last mo


s that his to enter t

in the case of

e permaneose stationnment for Gwith an ope

or the sigexpected o

estimated.

nospheric

signal at odes of ped 21:00 UT

s of the Ke% of the GP

re than 15


position he port in

f a port enviro

ent networkns contribuGPS RF sigen horizon

nal recepton real time

c pierce po

each of therturbationsT.

ey paramePS data are5 minutes.


No 636329”.

can no lofull safety

onment

k of GNSSute to the Ignals acquat 360°).

ion are me of naviga

oints)

he permans. One is

eters (as pe lost for a . It has al

onger be y without

S stations GS or to uisition is

uch less ation that

ent fixed between

reviously satellite.

lso been

Figure 2i

22. Analysis ondicate miss

of Reykjavik sing data rate

P

station – GNS(per min, 1 H

of 66

SS key paramHz data) on L1


eters time se1 and L2 band


eries, IndexL1ds. One colou


No 636329”.

Miss & Indexur per satellite

x L2Miss e

Hereaftesignal locompleteat each e

er is a focusses. The e network selement of

us on the L2losses

station by sa constant

P

first periodmaps havstation. Tht grid.

of 66

d betweene been ge

he maps co


n 17:00 anenerated evorrespond


d 18:00 avery 5 minto the mea


No 636329”.

nd the manutes basean observe

apping of ed on the ed values

Figure 23. 18:00 (1 m

The resu

- L2- Th

7.3.2 Ro

The folloROTI ind

Observed GNmn interval sta

ults clearly

2 losses afhe affected

oti index p

owing mapdex series.

NSS L2 signaatistics, when

lead to the

ffect severad area mov

perturbatio

ps show idROTI is th

P

als losses of ln L1 is tracked

e two concl

al stations ves East to

ons

entically tohe rate of c

of 66

lock during thd, 1 s rate dat

lusions:

located in West.

o the lossechange of t


he 17th Marchta)

the same a

es of lock he electron


h magnetic st

area (differ

in the prenic content


No 636329”.

torm between

rent receive

evious chat.

n 17:00 and

er types)

apter, the

P

of 66




No 636329”.

7.3.3 L2

When obthe calcu

Figure 24. March 2015

2 losses o

bserving atulated ROT

Roti maps (u5 storm

of lock and

t the sameTI ionosphe

up) and GPS

P

d ROTI ind

e epoch theric index t

L2 signal los

of 66

dex correla

he observethere is no

sses maps (d


ation

ed GNSS Ldoubt abo

own) at the s


L2 signals ut the corr

same time int


No 636329”.

losses of relation.

tervals during

lock and

g the 17-18

7.3.4 Po

In this chhigh latitdifferent

https://ig

The pererros of a

REYKJA

A

ositioning

hapter, theudes statioalgorithms

sac-cnes.c

rturbations about 10 m

AVIK statio

round 10 m

g perturbat

e induced pons during s from CLS

cls.fr/

are presem and spee

on – 17 Ma

m error

P

tions estim

position errthe magne

S or CNES/

ented here ed errors of

arch 2015

of 66

mated dur

rors of the etic event. /THALES.

for two stf about 1 k

magnetic


ring the ma

GPS anteThe calcu

tations : Rkm/h are fa

storm


ain 2015 m

nnas haveulations hav

Reykjavik aced.


No 636329”.

magnetic e

e been anave been m

and Oslo. P

event

alyzed for made with

Positions

A

OSLO st

round 1kmFigure 25

tation – 17

m/h error . Errors in po

7 March 20

P

osition and sp(dual-freq.

015 magne

of 66

peed induced Ionospheric

etic storm


by the magncorrection)

m


netic event at


No 636329”.

Reykjavik

7.3.5 Po

End of Obeen caprocessithe followbe reminenvironm

Figure

ositioning

October 20alculated fong modelswing plot thnd that thement (no m

26. Errors in

g perturbat

003 is knowor the Reys for compahat the pos

e permanenask...).

P

position and (dual-freq.

tions estim

wn has onykjavik staarison withsitions erront stations

of 66

speed inducIonospheric

mated dur

ne of the wations withh the case os may rea correspon


ed by the macorrection)

ring the wo

worst stormh the sam

of 17-18 ach a 50 mnd to a sta


agnetic event

orst 2003 s

m. The pome algorithm

March 201m level. Onatic case a


No 636329”.

at Oslo

storm

sitions erroms and th15. One cance again, and to a fa

ors have he same an see in it should

avourable

F

Figure 27. Callculated error

P

rs in position

of 66

and satellite


lost during t


he 2003 storm


No 636329”.

m at Reykjavi

k

8 Mubo

8.1 ObjThe objeand analoccur atpositioninexcitationits own sArgos, Irthose eq

8.2 CamThe set oand dataArctic linon board

ulti‐banard ship

ectives ofective of thlyze how tt high lating/navigatn varies desensitivity, ridium. It wuipments a

Table 13. RF

mpaign preof equipmea managemne has beed a cargo s

ds spacp in a po

f the camphe campaigthey react itudes. Thion applicepending o

a various will be the and multi-b

F equipments

eparation ents have bment systeen taken. Thip during

P

ce weatolar rou

paign gn is to coand may b

he systemcations. Coon the frequ

range of sfirst case

bands syste

s that will con

and plannbeen selecem is undeThe compaa minimum

RF equips

On board sy

of 66

her moute

ollect data be perturbs include onsidering uency but asystems arof such e

ems.

ntribute to the

ning cted and ther developmany is verym 3 months

AIS

Argos

GPS

Iridium 1

ystems


nitoring

from diffeated in catelecommthat the

also considre plannedexperiment

e Space Weat

e preparatment at CLy cooperatis experime

Band

161,975 MHz 162,025 MHz

400 MHz

1575,42 MHz1227,6 MHz

1616 to 1626.5 MHz


g campa

rent systemse of spac

municationsresponse

dering that d to be em

is done s

ther polar shi

tion of the fLS. A contve for hos

ent.

z


No 636329”.

aign on

ms onboarce events s applicati

of a ionevery systbarked : G

simultaneo

ip campaign

full data actact with th

sting the eq

rd a ship that may ons and

nospheric tems has

GPS, AIS usly with

cquisition he Royal quipment

8.3 ProFor eachwhen malosses oflosses ofbe analy

8.4 Camothe

After anaespeciallpropagatthat it is within a f

There is occasiononboard.happeninconsequpackage we will nsystem tWP6 thanavigatiopolar phe

The appr

Fig

cessing plh of the syagnetic evf data in thf signal ansed.

mpaign coer WPs alysing thely in the ption situatiovery ambitfew months

no doubt n to learn . One shoung and wence, it a of Efficien

not be ableto be usedat objectivon. The shenomena t

roach to as

ure 28. Royal

an ystem onbvents will bhe case ofd position

ntribution

e complexipolar regioons and altious to bes polar rou

that such sabout the

uld considewhat is the

ppears nonSea2. In te to say wd in case ove is to dhip campaio cover.

ssess the f

P

l Arctic Line t

oard the sbe faced. Tf AIS, Iridiuerrors for

n to the Sp

ity of the on, the colso the fac

e able to anute.

space weae vulneraber that frome exact s

ot realistic the case ofith a high of perturbadevelop a ign will no

forecast is

of 66

that will host

ship analysThe impacum and ArgGPS. Part

pace Weat

problem omplexity o

ct the worstnalyse in fu

ather campbility of them now we situation o

to providef WP2.3 wconfidence

ations. Theprototype

ot be exha

detailed in


the SW camp

sis will be ts will be gos. They tially or com

ther forec

f space wof each syt events arull detail th

paign is rele commundon’t even

onboard we significa

which consie level whae same con

of spaceaustive eno

the last ch


paign equipm

lead on thmainly exawill be ex

mplete ser

ast service

weather (seystem respre not so fhe impacts

levant andnication ann know tha

when problnt inputs fders the roat is the bnclusion is

e weather ough in te

hapter.


No 636329”.

ment

he serviceamined in amined in

rvice availa

e (WP6) a

ee chaptersponse to afrequent, it on all the

a unique nd GNSS at degradalems occufor the othoaming tecest commu

s applicablforecast f

rms of the

e impacts terms of terms of

ability will

nd

s 3 & 4) abnormal

appears systems

and rare systems tions are

ur. As a her work chniques, unication e for the for polar e various

9 CoThis docand posiconsistedat high lsignals aContent ionosphepartially then be cin the coThe ROTa good tdevelop During thquantify onboard impact omessagestations

Another relevant the intermagnetoalready dindices bdirection specific that field

The uniqRoyal Arthe spac

nclusiocument hasitioning serd in a specatitudes. Pand positioor TEC rat

eric scintillor totally iconsidered

overage of TI pattern atrack for sha prototypehe developa level ofship campn navigatio

es content having stat

important forecastingr-magnetic

osphere andeveloped but also e and intenmodel for s.

que and orrctic line we weather.

ns for as been focurvices. Parcific analysProcessingoning durinte of changlations. It nterrupt th

d as good ithe netwo

also showshort term fe forecast pment of thf impact (epaign data on context

integrity rtic antenna

lesson frog suppose

c field pland finally th

several seequatorial nsity), solar

the polar

riginal spacill permit to.

P

a space wussed on rrt of the wois of GPS have beeg a magnege) has beis correla

he GPS avindicators frk (ongoing

s displacemforecast ofservice onhe serviceerror positto be lead (both via t

reported bas.

om this re that all th

asma prophe ionosphervices for scintillationr wind or pregion, so

ce weatheo learn a lo

of 66

weatheeporting spork consistdata from a

en done to etic storm.een exploreted with G

vailability. Tfor nowcasg investiga

ment versusf an event n space we, some calioning for by the end

the GPS any the othe

eport in orde “space w

pagation uhere have solar ener

ns. In WPpolar cap w

ome resear

r test camot especial


er forecapace weathted in a bia ground npoint put

The ROTed for the mGPS signaThe GPS Rsting the poation for exs time alonpropagatio

eather effeclibration wexample)

d of 2016 wnd also theer ships in

der go ahweather chup to the to be consrgetic particP6, proxys will contribrch studies

paign onbly on the d


ast servher effectsbliography

network of degradatio

TI parametemapping oals losses ROTI and olar maritimxtend it to ng the ovalon. The Wcts will expill be neceversus th

will also hee AIS ship the vicini

ead with thain” from t

Earth cosidered as cles events

like Bz (bute to thes have alre

oard a shidetection a


No 636329”.

vice (WP on commu

y analysis, permanenton on GPSer (Total E

of areas affof lock t

losses of me areas –Northern A auroral th

WP6 CLS aplore that aessary espee level RO

elp is estimpositions aty), the pe

the WP6 the solar oonnection

a whole. s and geom(intermagne elaboratioeady been

p planned nd quantifi

P6) unication part of it t stations S signals Electronic fected by that may lock can

– at least America). at is also

activity to approach. ecially to OTI. The

mating the and other ermanent

is that a origin, via

into the CLS has magnetic etic field on of the n lead on

with the ication of

D2.5.Report on space weather effects on communication and positioning … · communication and...

Documents

Transcript of D2.5.Report on space weather effects on communication and positioning … · communication and...