D2,1.philippines country practices
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1 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Measuring Gross Regional Domestic Product:
The Philippine Experience
by
MARIA FE M. TALENTODivision Head
Production Accounts DivisionNational Statistical Coordination Board
International Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsTiantan Hotel, Beijing China
15 -17 March, 2010
2 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. Introduction
II. Compilation Process: Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Philippines
III. Sources of Data
IV. Estimation Methodology
V. Development Efforts
VI. Issues on the GRDP
VII. Current Improvements
VIII.Next Steps
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
3 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. INTRODUCTION
The Philippine Statistical System (PSS)
A highly decentralized statistical system:
- statistics are produced by a number of major producers of primary data and by smaller units in all levels of government which generates statistics as a by-product of their administrative or regulatory functions
4 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. INTRODUCTION The Current Gross Regional
Domestic Product (GRDP)
follows the 1968 UNSNA but to a limited extent already incorporates the recommendations of the 1993 SNA.
a Designated Statistics under Executive Order No. 352 and is currently being developed and maintained by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB))
5 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
I. INTRODUCTION Milestones in GRDP estimation:
1974 – first compilation of the GRDP for the period 1971-1974
1978 – GRDP compilation was resumed and institutionalized
Data Series of GRDP: 1978-2008
Coverage of GRDP: 17 regions
Date of Release of GRDP: Every first Thursday of August of the
current year
6 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin:
1. Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry a) Agricultureb) Forestry
2. Industry a) Mining and Quarryingb) Manufacturingc) Constructiond) Electricity and Water
7 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin:
3. Servicesa) Wholesale and Retail Tradeb) Transportation, Communication and
Storage (TCS)c) Financed) Ownership of Dwellings and Real
Estate (ODRE)e) Private Servicesf) Government Services
8 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
GRDP Measurement : uses the production approach:
- Unduplicated sum of all the goods and services produced in the regional economy (by resident producers), valued at producers’
prices
GRDP (P) = Gross Value Added (GVA) by industry, by region
9 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
Top to Bottom Approach:
- National control total by sector is allocated by region
- data support is stronger at the national level
10 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
The NSCB is in the process of devolving the estimation of the GRDP to the NSCB Regional Offices:
- the NSCB Central Office estimates the GRDP by sector for all 17 regions using the national level as control total.
- Simultaneously, the 9 NSCB regional offices come up with an independent estimate of their region’s GDP by sector using available data and indicators from their respective regions
11 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
II. COMPILATION PROCESS
Estimates of the Central Office and the NSCB Regions go through a deliberation process by sector by region (validation of data, major developments in the region, etc.)
The final estimates are reached, in consensus with the NSCB Regions after incorporating all considerations in the deliberation process.
Independent estimates from the regions, however, will not add up to the national total
National total by sector is allocated to the Regions using percentage distribution.
12 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
III. SOURCES OF DATA Census/Survey-based data - Census of Phil. Business & Industry (CPBI) - Annual Survey of Phil. Business & Industry
(ASPBI) - Quarterly Survey of Phil Business & Industry
(QSPBI)
Administrative-based data
Special Studies
Indicators from Industry Associations (i.e., Chamber of Mines, Cement Manufacturers Assn. of the Philippines, etc.)
13 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Indirect Approach: Use of GVARs
GVA = Gross Output * Gross Value Added Ratio (GVAR)
where:
GVAR = Gross Value Added Gross Output
Sectors: Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry, Mining and Quarrying
IV. Current Price Estimation: by region
14 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Value Extrapolation
GVAt = previous GVA level t-1 * growth rate of
the value of productiont /t-1
Example: Services sectors – value extrapolation using the trend of gross revenue from the Quarterly Survey of Phil Business and Industry (QSPBI)
IV. Current Price Estimation: by region
15 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Uses the fixed-base year method:
Single Deflation: GVAk = GVAt /Deflator
Quantity Revaluation: GVAk = (Qtyt * Price at base year)*GVAR
Volume Extrapolation: GVAk = GVA level t-1 * 1+ GR rate of
volume or output indicator/t-1
IV. Constant Price Estimation: by region
16 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
Addressing increasing demand for local level statistics:
pilot compilation of the Provincial Product Accounts for the provinces of Palawan in 1998 and Guimaras in 2006
17 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
ADVANCE RELEASE CALENDAR: NSCB has adopted a policy of releasing in advance the schedule of press releases for the national accounts & its related accounts including the GRDP
Forging of partnerships with source agencies
- bilateral meetings, Task Forces
18 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
Supplementary data from the private sector:
- financial statement of companies
- gross revenue of top food chains
- volume and value of utilities
- Indicators from industry associations
Incorporated emerging industries such as the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) in GRDP beginning 2003
19 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS
Use of NSCB website to inform the public:
Press Releases, Announcements on the GRDP
Technical Notes on the GRDP
Metadata on the GRDP
Advance Release Calendar on National Accounts and its Related Accounts
Regional Fact Sheets
Response to erroneous GRDP reports from the media
20 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VI. ISSUES
Data Problems
Data support at the regional level
Frequent revision of regional compositions
Time lag of data sources Survey/Census results, Price indices, etc.
Need to update/improve parameters Ratios used in estimation i.e., GVAR,
undercoverage ratios
21 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VI. ISSUES
Coverage
Emerging Industries
Births and deaths of establishments
Undercoverage of illegal activities
Undercoverage of own-account production
22 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VI. ISSUES
Some Measurement Problems Regional allocation of output
-Economic activities such as Fishing, Transportation and Communication industries which extend beyond regional boundaries
-Problem of allocating the cost of operations of the head office for companies with regional branches
Regional estimates of the informal sector
23 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VI. ISSUES
RESOURCES
Manpower
- fast turnover of national accounts staff in the central office
- need for training on National Accounts for NSCB personnel in the Regions
- need for the NSCB Central Office staff to revive visits to the regions for validation of estimates
24 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VI. ISSUES
RESOURCES
Software for GRDP Compilation: -need to upgrade current hardware and software resources
- - need to refine the existing computerized
GRDP compilation
Financial Resources for statistical activities: limited budget given to censuses and surveys; Statistical offices always get low priority in the allocation of resources
25 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VII. CURRENT IMPROVEMENTS
Over-all Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP
Revised/rebased 1998-2009 series
Implementation of 1993 SNA Concepts
Shift in base year to 2000 & eventually 2006
Improvement in Data and Methodology
Refinements in the computerized compilation of the GRDP
Date of Release: September 2010
26 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
VIII. NEXT STEPS
Compilation of City/Provincial Product Accounts
Provision of training to Compilers and Data Producers
Policy on Overall Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP
27 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010
Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Maraming Salamat Po!
URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph
e-mail: [email protected]