D1,3.canada's ptea

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Arthur Berger Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, China, 15-19 March 2010 Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts

Transcript of D1,3.canada's ptea

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Arthur Berger

Regional Products and Income Accounts, Beijing, China, 15-19 March 2010

Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts

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23-04-12Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2

Outline

1. Regional Economic Accounts: Canadian context

2. Regional Input Output Tables

3. Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

4. Regional GDP by industry

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Part 1: Canadian context

Principles for Canadian regional accounts: Integration of accounts – Input Output, Income &

Expenditure Accounts, GDP by industry Standardization – common survey frame, classification

systems, chart of accounts Coherence – establish control totals & adjust detail to

add up to total Use administrative data and survey data

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Part 1: Canadian context

Legislative Requirements: Value added tax collected by federal

government on behalf of provinces, allocated to those provinces based on regional economic accounts expenditure estimates

Federal transfer payments to provincial governments also based on regional accounts data

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Topics Timing Detail Benchmarking role Data sources Balancing Deflation

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Timing: Annual regional Input Output tables are published 34

months after the reference period For example, 2006 I/O tables were published in November

2009 National I/O tables are published concurrently with the

regional tables Most source data available 15 months after reference

period, but some as late as 24 months

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Detail: Regional I/O tables are broken down into 300

industries, 727 commodities, 170 final demand categories

This is the same detail found in the national I/O tables

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Imports & Exports Detail: 727 commodities 13 provinces and territories + rest of world Example: exports of bank and investment

commissions from Ontario province to Quebec province were $600M in 2006

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Benchmarking Role: Regional I/O tables provide C$ benchmark for regional

income and expenditure based GDP, and regional value added by industry

Regional I/O tables add-up to the national I/O tables National K$ I/O tables provide benchmark for national

real GDP by industry

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Data Sources: Industry estimates Final demand estimates

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Data Sources – Industry Estimates: Annual surveys, mostly establishment based, sampling

designed to produce accurate estimates by province Samples are usually divided into three strata:

• take all (large companies that operate in more than one industry and/or more than one province)

• take some (medium sized companies)• take none (smaller companies that operate in only one province

and only one industry) Income tax data is used for take none stratum

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Data Sources – Industry Estimates: Other sources

• Labour expenses by industry – taxation data• Construction – capital expenditure survey for output• Financial industries – administrative data + enterprise

survey data• Income tax data + occasional surveys

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Data Sources – Final Demand Estimates: Personal expenditures: retail trade survey + survey of household

spending + service industry surveys + administrative data Capital expenditures: capital expenditure survey Investment in inventories: industry surveys Government current expenditures: public accounts International imports and exports: customs data (data exchange

with USA) for merchandise, survey data for services Inter-provincial imports and exports: combination of survey data and

modeling

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Balancing: National & provincial/territorial supply/use data are

balanced in successive iterations National balancing adjustments serve as a guide for

provincial/territorial adjustments Implications at provincial/territorial level provide

feedback loop for re-adjusting national estimates (i.e. Petroleum extraction = 7% of national GDP, 31% of Alberta provincial GDP)

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Part 2: Regional Input Output Tables

Deflation: Regional I/O tables are in C$ only. National I/O tables are deflated to K$.

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Topics Timing Benchmarking Detail Data Sources Deflation

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Timing: Preliminary estimates published 4 months after reference

period (i.e. 2008 estimates published April 2009) Revised estimates for most recent 4 years published 7

months later (i.e. 2005-2008 revised estimates published November 2009)

Revisions incorporate most recent I/O tables + all other new information

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Timing (continued): National IEA revised estimates for most recent 4

years published in May (i.e. 2005-2008 revised estimates published May 2009)

Plan to move to single annual release of regional IEA, concurrent with national IEA by May 2013

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure AccountsBenchmarking: Regional IEA C$ benchmarked to regional I/O C$ (up to 2006 so

far) Regional IEA C$ benchmarked to national IEA C$ (2007 & 2008) Regional IEA K$ benchmarked to national IEA K$ (all years) National IEA C$ benchmarked to national I/O C$ National IEA K$ not benchmarked to national I/O K$ National and regional GDP in IEA very similar to national and

regional GDP by industry, but not identical

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Detail - Aggregates: GDP at market prices income based (C$) and

expenditure based (C$ & K$) Net Domestic Product at basic prices(C$)

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Detail - Income: Labour Income – 16 industrial sectors Corporate Profits – total economy; no industrial

detail

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Detail – Expenditures: Personal Expenditures: about 60 categories of

goods and services Capital Expenditure:

• Residential structures, buildings, engineering structures, 10 categories of machinery & equipment

• All broken down by government and business

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Detail – Expenditures (continued): Imports and Exports: 9 goods categories, 5

service categories

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Detail – Sector Accounts: Sources and disposition of personal income

(includes persons, unincorporated businesses and non-profit institutions serving households)

Government sector tax revenue, investment income, transfer payments, subsidies

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure Accounts

Data Sources: Corporate profits – quarterly survey of financial

statements, income tax data Labour income – monthly household survey of

labour force, monthly payroll survey, administrative data

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure AccountsData Sources (continued): Personal expenditures - monthly retail trade survey,

annual survey of household spending, service industry surveys, administrative data

Capital expenditures - annual capital expenditure survey, monthly construction payroll data, monthly manufacturing survey (shipments of building materials and machinery and equipment) and international trade data ( machinery and equipment)

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure AccountsData Sources (continued): International merchandise trade – monthly customs data

(provincial allocation is challenging) International services trade – quarterly and annual

surveys Inter-provincial trade – model based on input output

tables trade flows & aggregate production and demand data

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure AccountsDeflation: Personal expenditures – consumer price index Engineering construction expenditures – labour and

material input prices Home & building construction expenditures – building

price index Machinery and equipment – machinery and equipment

price indexes

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Part 3: Regional Income and Expenditure AccountsDeflation: Government current expenditures – hourly wages of

government employees Exports – unit values, domestic producer price indexes

(exchange rate pass-through assumption) Imports - unit values, foreign producer price indexes

(exchange rate pass-through assumption)

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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry

Topics Timing Detail Data Sources Deflation

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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry

Timing: Same publication dates as the regional income

and expenditure accounts

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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry

Detail: Same level of industry detail as found in the

regional input-output tables

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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry

Data Sources: Monthly and annual industry surveys Monthly payroll survey Administrative data

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Part 4: Regional GDP by industry

Deflation:

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Reference Documents

Guide to the Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue no. 13-017-X, www.statcan.gc.ca

Gross Domestic Product by Industry Sources and Methods with Industry Details, Catalogue no. 15-548-XIE, www.statcan.gc.ca

Chain Fisher Volume Index Methodology, Catalogue no. 13-604-MIE — No. 42, www.statcan.gc.ca