D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Report · 1.1 David Arthurs PVEO November, 2015...

User Needs and High-Level Requirements for Next Generation Observing Systems for the

Polar Regions

D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements

Report

February, 2016

Prepared for: European Space Agency

Prepared by: Polar View Earth Observation Limited

Polaris: Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions

European Space Agency

D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Revision 2.1 February, 2016

REVISION HISTORY

VERSION NAME COMPANY DATE OF CHANGES COMMENTS

1.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO September, 2015 Release to team for

input

1.1 David Arthurs PVEO November, 2015 Reorganization

1.2 Ed Kennedy PVEO November, 2015 Additional edits

2.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO January, 2016 Release to ESA

2.1 Ed Kennedy PVEO February, 2016 Minor edits

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ORGANIZATION NAME NUMBER OF COPIES

European Space Agency Ola Gråbak 1 electronic copy

European Space Agency Arnaud Lecuyot 1 electronic copy

Steering Committee 1 electronic copy




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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1

2 STUDY METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 2

3 DRIVERS OF INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS .................................................................... 5

3.1 Science Drivers ................................................................................................... 5

3.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes .................................................. 6

3.1.2 Land Surface and Use Changes ....................................................................... 7

3.1.3 Ocean (Sea) State Changes.............................................................................. 7

3.1.4 Coastal Zone Changes ..................................................................................... 8

3.1.5 Ecosystem Changes ......................................................................................... 8

3.1.6 Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes ................................................... 8

3.1.7 Sea Ice Changes ............................................................................................... 9

3.1.8 River/Lake Ice Changes ................................................................................. 10

3.1.9 Snow Changes ............................................................................................... 10

3.1.10 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes ............................................................... 10

3.1.11 Permafrost Changes ...................................................................................... 11

3.2 Operational Drivers .......................................................................................... 11

3.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment ............................................................... 12

3.2.2 Engineering Design ........................................................................................ 13

3.2.3 Operations Planning ...................................................................................... 15

3.2.4 Route Planning .............................................................................................. 16

3.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations ................................................................... 17

3.2.6 Risk Management .......................................................................................... 19

3.2.7 Emergency Response .................................................................................... 20

3.2.8 Search and Rescue......................................................................................... 21

3.2.9 Weather Forecasting ..................................................................................... 22

3.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation .......................................................................... 23

4 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS......................................................... 25

4.1 Scientific User Community Requirements ....................................................... 25

4.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Change Information ............................. 25

4.1.2 Land Surface and Use Change Information ................................................... 27

4.1.3 Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information ..................................... 27

4.1.4 Ecosystem Change Information .................................................................... 28

4.1.5 Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information .............................. 28

4.1.6 Sea Ice Change Information .......................................................................... 29

4.1.7 River/Lake Ice Change Information ............................................................... 29

4.1.8 Snow Change Information ............................................................................. 30

4.1.9 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Change Information ............................................ 31

4.1.10 Permafrost Change Information ................................................................... 31

4.2 Operational User Community Requirements................................................... 31




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4.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment Information .......................................... 31

4.2.2 Engineering Design Information ................................................................... 32

4.2.3 Operations Planning Information .................................................................. 33

4.2.4 Route Planning Information .......................................................................... 33

4.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations Information ............................................... 34

4.2.6 Risk Management Information ..................................................................... 35

4.2.7 Emergency Response Information ................................................................ 36

4.2.8 Search and Rescue Operations Information ................................................. 36

4.2.9 Weather Forecasting Information ................................................................. 37

4.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation Information ...................................................... 39

4.3 User Requirements Spanning Multiple Domains ............................................. 42

4.3.1 Sea Ice ............................................................................................................ 43

4.3.2 River and Lake Ice .......................................................................................... 43

4.3.3 Snow .............................................................................................................. 43

4.3.4 Atmosphere ................................................................................................... 43

4.3.5 Ice Sheet ........................................................................................................ 43

4.3.6 Permafrost ..................................................................................................... 43

4.3.7 Land ............................................................................................................... 43

4.3.8 Glaciers and Ice Caps ..................................................................................... 44

4.3.9 Oceans ........................................................................................................... 44

4.3.10 Icebergs ......................................................................................................... 44

5 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 45

5.1 Current Information Requirements ................................................................. 45

5.2 Deficiencies in Available Information Products and Services .......................... 53

5.3 Future Information Requirements ................................................................... 55

5.4 Political, Economic, Social/Cultural and Technological (PEST) Trends ............ 58

5.4.1 Impacts of Political/Policy Trends ................................................................. 58

5.4.2 Impacts of Economic Trends ......................................................................... 63

5.4.3 Impacts of Technological Trends ................................................................... 65

5.4.4 Impacts of Social/Cultural Trends ................................................................. 66

APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES TO SCIENCE DRIVERS ..................................................................... 68

Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes ..................................................................... 68

Land Surface and Use Changes .......................................................................................... 72

Ocean (Sea) State Changes................................................................................................. 73

Coastal Zone Changes ........................................................................................................ 75

Ecosystem Changes ............................................................................................................ 75

Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes ...................................................................... 78

Sea Ice Changes .................................................................................................................. 79

River/Lake Ice Changes ...................................................................................................... 81

Snow Changes .................................................................................................................... 81

Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes .................................................................................... 82




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Permafrost Changes ........................................................................................................... 83

APPENDIX 2: REFERENCES TO INFORMATION PARAMETER REQUIREMENTS ......................... 85

Atmosphere Research ........................................................................................................ 85

Climate Research ................................................................................................................ 85

Weather Research .............................................................................................................. 86

Land Surface and Use Change Information ........................................................................ 86

Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information .......................................................... 87

Ecosystem Change Information ......................................................................................... 88

Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information ................................................... 88

Sea Ice Change Information ............................................................................................... 88

River/Lake Ice Change Information .................................................................................... 89

Snow Change Information .................................................................................................. 89

Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Information ............................................................................... 90

Permafrost Change Information ........................................................................................ 90

Environmental Impact Assessment Information ............................................................... 90

Engineering Design Information ........................................................................................ 91

Operations Planning Information ....................................................................................... 91

Route Planning Information ............................................................................................... 92

Safe Navigation and Operations Information .................................................................... 93

Risk Management Information .......................................................................................... 94

Emergency Response Information ..................................................................................... 96

Search and Rescue Operations Information ...................................................................... 96

Weather Forecasting Information ...................................................................................... 96

Climate Change Adaptation Information ........................................................................... 98

APPENDIX 3: USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS .................................. 103

Global Cryosphere Watch Observation Requirements .................................................... 103

Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR) .................................. 103

IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report ...................................................................................... 104

Sentinel Convoy Analysis Reports .................................................................................... 104

Arctic in Rapid Transition Network (ART) Priority Sheets ................................................ 105

ESA DUE Permafrost Requirements Baseline Document and Final Report v2 ................ 107

GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan – Annual Update 27 November 2014 .................................. 108

Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar ................................................................................................................. 111

Outline of a Technical Solution to a Global Cryospheric Climate Monitoring System .... 112

SAR Science Requirements for Ice Sheets ........................................................................ 112

Coordinated SAR Acquisition Planning for Terrestrial Snow Monitoring ........................ 112

Ice Information Services: Socio-Economic Benefits and Earth Observation Requirements 2007 Update ..................................................................................................................... 113

The Contribution of Space Technologies to Arctic Policy Priorities ................................. 113

Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science: The Way Forward ...................................... 115




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Preliminary scientific needs for Cryosphere Sentinel 1-2-3 products ............................. 116

Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011 Update ..................................................................................................................... 116

WMO 2012 Survey on the Use of Satellite Data .............................................................. 117

Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere ....................................................................................................................... 117

Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs ......................................... 119

Mission Concepts for a Polar Observation System Final Report...................................... 119

INTERACT Research and Monitoring ................................................................................ 120

APPENDIX 4: PEST TRENDS ..................................................................................................... 123

Political / Policy Trends ............................................................................................. 123

Economic Trends ....................................................................................................... 139

Social / Cultural Trends ............................................................................................. 147

Technological Trends ................................................................................................ 150

APPENDIX 5: STEERING COMMITTEE OF EXPERT ADVISORS ................................................. 161

APPENDIX 6: ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED .......................................................................... 162

APPENDIX 7: REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 164

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Polar Code Information Requirements ...................................................................... 18

Table 2: Information Parameter Requirements for Atmosphere Research ............................ 25

Table 3: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Research .................................... 26

Table 4: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Research .................................. 26

Table 5: Information Parameter Requirements for Land Surface and Use Change Research . 27

Table 6: Information Parameter Requirements for Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Research ........................................................................................................................... 27

Table 7: Information Parameter Requirements for Ecosystem Change Research .................. 28

Table 8: Information Parameter Requirements for Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Research ........................................................................................................................... 29

Table 9: Information Parameter Requirements for Sea Ice Change Research ........................ 29

Table 10: Information Parameter Requirements for River/Lake Ice Change Research ........... 30

Table 11: Information Parameter Requirements for Snow Change Research ......................... 30

Table 12: Information Parameter Requirements for Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Research ...... 31

Table 13: Information Parameter Requirements for Permafrost Change Research ............... 31

Table 14: Information Parameter Requirements for Environmental Impact Assessment ...... 32

Table 15: Information Parameter Requirements for Engineering Design ............................... 32

Table 16: Information Parameter Requirements for Operations Planning ............................. 33

Table 17: Information Parameter Requirements for Route Planning ...................................... 34

Table 18: Information Parameter Requirements for Safe Navigation and Operations ........... 34

Table 19: Information Parameter Requirements for Risk Management ................................. 35




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Table 20: Information Parameter Requirements for Emergency Response ............................ 36

Table 21: Information Parameter Requirements for Search and Rescue Operations ............. 37

Table 22: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Forecasting Operations ......... 37

Table 23: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Change Adaptation Operations39

Table 47: Overview of Products – Atmosphere ....................................................................... 99

Table 48: Overview of Products – Oceans ............................................................................. 100

Table 49: Overview of Products – Terrestrial ......................................................................... 100

Table 50: Essential Climate Variables ..................................................................................... 101

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Logic Model for Identification of Information Gaps ................................................... 3

Figure 2: Concept Map of Polar Science and Research Drivers ................................................. 6

Figure 3: Concept Map of Polar Operational Drivers ............................................................... 12

Figure 4: Relative Importance of Atmosphere Parameters ..................................................... 46

Figure 5: Relative Importance of Land Parameters ................................................................. 47

Figure 6: Relative Importance of Ocean Parameters ............................................................... 48

Figure 7: Relative Importance of Sea Ice Parameters .............................................................. 48

Figure 8: Relative Importance of Lake / River Ice Parameters ................................................. 49

Figure 9: Relative Importance of Snow Parameters ................................................................ 50

Figure 10: Relative Importance of Ice Sheet Parameters ........................................................ 51

Figure 11: Relative Importance of Glacier / Ice Cap Parameters ............................................. 52

Figure 12: Relative Importance of Iceberg Parameters ........................................................... 52

Figure 13: Relative Importance of Permafrost Parameters ..................................................... 53




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1 INTRODUCTION

The objective of the Polaris Programme is to respond to the evolving demands for space-

based monitoring of the polar regions by developing the next generation of space

infrastructure, developing novel concepts for integrated information services, and exploring

new partnerships with user communities. This Polaris study was motivated by the rapidly

increasing interest in the polar regions and the need to provide integrated information to

support the research and operations of a wide range of user communities, including

scientific, industry, governmental and non-governmental organizations and Arctic residents.

The study results are intended to help develop new space mission concepts for the polar

regions that address evolving scientific and operational information needs.

This report addresses the first objective of the Polaris study: to review, identify and

consolidate user community environmental information requirements for the polar regions.

It provides the findings of the two primary lines of enquiry for the study – literature review

and stakeholder consultations – and the results of the information needs analysis. Chapter 2

summarizes the contents of the four primary study deliverables and the methodology

employed to address the Statement of Work. The third chapter provides a discussion of the

key drivers of information requirements for the two primary categories of users – science

and operations. The fourth chapter documents the specific requirements that each of these

user categories have for environmental information. The final chapter discusses deficiencies

in currently available information products and services, and provides an analysis of user

needs for information currently and in the medium- and long-term and the impacts of key

political/policy, economic, social/cultural and technological trends on those changing needs.




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2 STUDY METHODOLOGY

This chapter summarizes the study methodology for the identification of gaps in currently

available environmental information in the polar regions, and the contents of the four

primary study deliverables. The methodology is illustrated in Figure 1. Overall, there are

three technical reports and a summary report. The study findings are based on four lines of

enquiry: a literature review, a review of polar data web portals, stakeholder consultations,

and a stakeholder workshop. At each step of the process, the project team’s work was

reviewed by a steering committee of expert advisors that were chosen to reflect the

interests of different polar information communities. The composition of the steering

committee is listed in Appendix 5.

The Environmental Information Requirements Report (D1.1, this report) addresses the Polaris

study objective to review, identify and consolidate user community environmental

information requirements for the polar regions. Input to this report was derived from two

primary lines of enquiry for the study – literature review and stakeholder consultations.

Some 250 documents were reviewed to identify user requirements and the scientific and

operational drivers of those requirements. Fifty representatives of the broad range of user

communities active in the polar regions were consulted (see organization list in Appendix 6).

The report provides the findings from the literature review and consultations and the results

of a first level analysis of current information needs and gaps. It also summarizes user input

on how needs are expected to change over the next 5-15 years and how key political/policy,

economic, social/cultural and technological trends may impact users’ future information

needs.

The Gaps and Impact Analysis Report (D2.1, under separate cover) addresses the study

objective to identify information gaps considering existing and planned earth observation

(EO) and integrated (navigation/telecommunications/surveillance) systems, space and non-

space based. A literature review was conducted of available sources of EO-based products

and services, as well as information available from other space assets (e.g. global navigation

satellite systems (GNSS), telecommunications and space automatic identification systems (S-

AIS)) and non-space assets (e.g. ground- and airborne-based sensors). The first level analysis

of information needs and gaps was then refined and reviewed by experts in the information

provider community and by a cross-section of users and providers at a workshop as part of

the second level analysis of information gaps. Finally, new integrated products and services

to address the gaps were specified at a high level and the possible impacts and political and

legal implications of their development were analyzed.




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Figure 1: Study Methodology




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The Preliminary Observation Requirements Report (D3.1, under separate cover) addresses

the study objective to establish a set of endorsed, high-level mission requirements reflecting

the gaps and perform a preliminary assessment of the high-level operations requirements

for supplying these integrated services.

The Study Report (under separate cover) provides an overview and summary of the overall

study findings and the conclusions drawn from the analysis of findings. It contains a synthesis

of critical elements of the Environmental Information Requirements, Gaps and Impact

Analysis and Preliminary Observation Requirements Reports.




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3 DRIVERS OF INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

Environmental information requirements in the polar regions primarily result from or are

driven by two sets of activities: i) scientific and research pursuits and ii) operations in or

related to these regions.

There are a broad range of science/research pursuits in the polar regions related to the study

of changes taking place in a variety of domains or subject areas, including climate, oceans,

atmosphere, ecosystems, etc. The drivers include both national and international

science/research policies, strategies and programmes. Each of the domains being studied

requires access to (and in some cases generates) a variety of environmental information

types or parameters, which are discussed in Section 3.1. Examples of specific references to

drivers in the different domains found in the literature are provided in Appendix 1.

Operations in the polar regions take place in some of the most complex and dangerous

conditions on Earth. Those involved in such operations (e.g. transit and destination shippers,

fishermen, offshore oil and gas operators, coast guards, Indigenous food harvesters, etc.)

require access to reliable and often near-real-time information to plan and undertake their

activities. Section 3.2 discusses the range of activities involved in polar region operations

that drive information requirements.

3.1 SCIENCE DRIVERS

Science and research in the polar regions covers a broad range of disciplines, among which

there are significant relationships and overlaps. In some cases, the policy/

strategy/programme drivers are discipline-specific, while in many others they are

multidisciplinary. The complexity of the polar research and science domain is illustrated in

Figure 2 on the next page, which identifies the connections between the different types of

research being undertaken in the Arctic and Antarctic.




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Figure 2: Concept Map of Polar Science and Research Drivers

3.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes

Interest in the changes taking place in the atmosphere over the polar regions, and the

impact this is having on global weather patterns, is growing. The changes are related to a

number of factors, including (Walsh, n.d.):

changes in the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases;

changes in the atmospheric circulation, contributing to Arctic warming, increased

precipitation and storminess;

decreases in ozone concentration; and

increases in the frequency of polar mesospheric clouds.

Of particular interest are atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions.

Nowhere on Earth is the evidence of global climate change more striking than in the polar

regions. According to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), air




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temperatures in the Arctic were 4° Celsius (7° Fahrenheit) warmer in the first half of 2010

than in the 1968 to 1996 reference period. Satellite data show: that over the past 30 years,

Arctic sea ice cover has declined by 30 percent in September, the month that marks the end

of the summer melt season; that snow cover over land in the Arctic has decreased, and

glaciers in Greenland and northern Canada are retreating; and that permafrost is thawing

(NSIDC, 2015). The warming of the Arctic has significant impacts on the global climate. For

example, the melting of arctic snow and ice exposes darker land and ocean surfaces,

increasing absorption of the sun’s heat and further warming the entire planet, and increases

in glacial runoff and melted sea ice add more freshwater to the ocean, raising global sea

level and possibly slowing the ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles

(Hassol, 2004).

Closely related to climate changes is research on weather changes in the polar regions.

Research is demonstrating that the warming Arctic is affecting day-to-day changes in the

atmosphere (i.e. weather) as well as long-term weather patterns (i.e. climate). For example,

recent studies focusing on the impacts of warming temperatures in the Arctic on the

Jetstream suggest that there may be a link with more persistent weather patterns in Eurasia

and North America (Francis, 2015) (Abraham, 2015). There is evidence that one result of the

Arctic warming faster than the mid-latitudes is weaker west to east winds in the jet and a

‘wavier’ Jetstream. When the Jetstream’s waves grow larger, they tend to move eastward

more slowly, resulting in the weather they generate also moving more slowly, creating more

persistent weather patterns or pattern ‘stickiness’ (e.g. extended cold snaps and heat

waves).

3.1.2 Land Surface and Use Changes

While not as dramatic as the changes in the ocean areas of the polar regions, changes on land (e.g. land use, land cover, soil moisture, vegetation structure, water quality, etc.) are also of growing interest to the science and research community. In particular, the impacts of human activities on the land in the polar regions and how land use change impacts the regions’ climate are research priorities.

3.1.3 Ocean (Sea) State Changes

Changes in the ocean state (e.g., temperature, salinity, level, biogeochemistry, etc.) in the

polar regions is a topic of great interest to polar scientists and researchers. There is strong

evidence that ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions have significant impacts on climate change

and these interactions are mentioned in several publications related to science drivers of

information requirements (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014), (Wegner & al, 2010), (AOSB:

MWG, 2011), (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) and (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015).

Ocean warming is a key factor in the increase in energy stored in the climate system,

accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high




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confidence) with about 1% stored in the atmosphere. It is very likely that the mean rate of

global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 mm/yr between 1901 and 2010 and 3.2 mm/yr

between 1993 and 2010 (IPCC, 2014). The Arctic Ocean’s enhanced sensitivity to ocean

acidification due to freshwater inputs from rivers, glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet is also

a growing concern (AMAP, 2013).

3.1.4 Coastal Zone Changes

The coastal zone in polar regions is a particularly sensitive and important zone of interaction

between land and sea and a region that provides essential ecosystem services. In the Arctic,

it is also a zone that supports indigenous peoples’ lifestyles and in which there are growing

infrastructure investment and security concerns (Forbes, 2011). Earlier melting of landfast

sea ice and advancing permafrost thawing is causing increasing coastal erosion, impacting

coastal infrastructure and local populations. For example, a number of Inuit villages along

the coast of Alaska are preparing to relocate because of the encroaching sea (AMAP, 2011).

As a consequence of these developments, there is increasing research interest in the impacts

of environmental and social change in the coastal zone.

3.1.5 Ecosystem Changes

Polar Region ecosystems are impacted by a wide variety of changes – in climate, oceans, sea

ice and species, for example. Since the polar regions are one of the regions where the effects

of climate change are most pronounced, reduction of sea ice thickness and extent will result

in significant changes for their entire ecosystems and will affect all levels of marine

biodiversity. Good knowledge of marine biodiversity and how it will respond to multiple

pressures is critical, and microbial and benthic ecosystems, deep sea regions and sea ice

associated (sympagic) habitats, as well as the winter period and adaptations to low

temperature have been identified as major knowledge gaps (Majaneva & al, 2015). Thawing

permafrost is causing wetlands in some areas to dry out and creating new wetlands

elsewhere, and the reduction of ice cover over rivers, lakes and seas is changing marine and

freshwater animal and plant communities. These ecosystem changes directly impact Arctic

people, affecting their supplies of water, fish, timber, traditional/local foods and grazing land

(AMAP, 2011). For millennia, northern Indigenous peoples co-evolved with their ecosystems.

Continued access to Arctic resources is linked to livelihoods, long-term economic

development and overall cultural survival, which is closely tied to access to living resources

and a meaningful role in resource governance (Nymand Larsen & Fondahl, 2015).

3.1.6 Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes

Significant climate change impacts on Polar Region species and organisms, along with

implications for food webs (i.e. links among species in an ecosystem – essentially who eats

what) are being reported. For example, in the Arctic, shrinking sea ice is impacting the ability

of polar bears to access food and reducing their reproductive success, and forcing walruses




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further from their feeding grounds (GreenFacts, 2015). The melting of ice can affect the

availability of physical habitats for algae, and the temperature and salinity of surface waters,

potentially disrupting the whole food web. In the Antarctic, a very important species to the

Antarctic food web – krill – is reported to have declined by about 80% since the 1970s

(Smetacek, 2008), and emperor penguins, which breed on sea ice surrounding continental

Antarctica, have also experienced a decline in numbers by up to 50% in places (BAS, 2015).

Closely linked to ecosystem changes, species/organisms and food web changes in the Arctic

and Antarctic are a relatively small but important area of polar research. The contribution of

Indigenous knowledge to this work must be recognized. A significant example is the recent

development of the Alaskan Inuit Food Security Conceptual Framework by Inuit Circumpolar

Council (ICC) – Alaska (ICC-Alaska, 2015). The project allowed Alaskan Inuit to share what

their food security is, how to assess changes occurring and how to move forward in a way

that will strengthen their food security.

3.1.7 Sea Ice Changes

By far the most important and best-documented indication of global climate change is the

reduction of sea ice extent and thickness in the Arctic. Although there can be significant

annual fluctuations in sea ice extent, there is a clear declining trend (NSIDC, 2015). In

contrast, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased slightly in recent years, reaching a

record maximum extent in 2014. The reason for the dichotomy between the Arctic and

Antarctic is not understood and is the topic of much current scientific investigation (e.g. see

(Comiso & al, 2015) and (NSIDC, 2014)).

Changes in sea ice have many impacts on, and feedbacks and interactions with, other

components of the Arctic system, including atmosphere and ocean interactions, energy and

mass budgets, marine ecosystems, and the economy and society (Renner & al, 2015). There

is evidence that atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change and that

feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness contribute to

additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks (Döscher

& al, 2014). The sea ice mass budget results from energy fluxes at the top and bottom of the

ice that control thermodynamic growth and melt, ice deformation due to winds and ocean

currents, and the mass flux of ice out of the Arctic (e.g. from the Arctic into the Atlantic

Ocean primarily through Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard). The shifts of the

retreating ice edge and transitional ice conditions causes a suite of chemical and physical

processes and stressors that impact both the magnitude and nature of changes to Arctic

marine ecosystems (Wegner & al, 2010).

The economic and societal impacts of sea ice reduction are considerable; for example,

increased shipping, increased access for resource exploration and extraction, fishing and

ecotourism in the Arctic are all facilitated by reduced sea ice extent and thickness; and




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improved governance will be required to ensure equitable access to and use of resources

and recognition of the rights of local populations.

3.1.8 River/Lake Ice Changes

The presence of frozen water on land (e.g. lakes and rivers) affects energy, moisture, gas and

particle fluxes, clouds, precipitation, hydrological conditions, and atmospheric and oceanic

circulation. Lake and river ice play a key role in the physical, biological, and chemical

processes of cold region freshwater and also have important economic implications. These

range from transportation (e.g. ice-road duration, open-water shipping season) to the

occurrence and severity of ice-jam flooding which can cause serious infrastructure and

property damage (IGOS, 2007). Lake ice cover is important for modelling the energy and

water balance of high-latitude river basins, for boreal climate modelling, and for improving

numerical weather prediction. River-ice is an important modifier of hydrologic processes and

its duration and break-up impact the timing and magnitude of extreme hydrologic events

(e.g. low flows and floods).

3.1.9 Snow Changes

Snow cover plays a critical role in the climatological, hydrological and ecological systems of

the polar and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g.

reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g.

insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents

and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions. Changing snow

conditions (e.g. reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow

conditions) are negatively affecting commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal

populations and vegetation. Indigenous peoples’ access to traditional foods is being

adversely affected by reduced snow cover, with negative impacts on human health and well-

being (Callaghan & al, 2012). While evidence suggests reduced snow accumulation and

changes to the seasonal timing of accumulation and melt, this is complicated by the high

variability of snow regimes over space and time (IGOS, 2007). There is very high confidence

that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th

century by 1.6% per decade for March and April, and 11.7% per decade for June, over the

1967 to 2012 period (IPCC, 2014).

3.1.10 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes

Ice sheets (i.e. Antarctica and Greenland) are continental-scale bodies of ice that flow under

their own weight towards the ocean, glaciers are smaller ice masses (globally approximately

160,000 glaciers are registered, covering an area of about 785,000 km2) and larger ice caps

(e.g. Iceland, Svalbard, Alaska and Patagonia) are ice masses that cover less than 50,000 km²

of land area. Glaciers and ice caps account for only 0.5% of the total land ice, but their

contribution to sea level rise during the last century exceeded that of the ice sheets (IGOS,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice




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2007). Analysis by Rignot and Thomas in 2002 suggested that more than 0.3 mm per year of

the current increase in sea level rise is attributable to mass loss from the Greenland and

Antarctic Ice Sheets, with a more than doubling of mass loss in the last decade from both

Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet. In part because current ice sheet models are

not realistically coupled to ocean models, and partly due to lack of understanding of the role

of melt water in outlet ice stream acceleration, ice sheet models are currently not able to

accurately predict how ice sheet melting will contribute to sea level rise in the future. Since

runoff from glaciers and ice caps is vital for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and

industry in many mountain ranges, severe adverse consequences for future water availability

are expected from accelerating glacier retreat (IGOS, 2007).

3.1.11 Permafrost Changes

Permafrost (i.e. sub-surface earth materials that remain at or below 0°C continuously for two

or more years) is widespread in Arctic, sub-Arctic, and high-mountain regions, and in ice-free

areas of the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic (IGOS, 2007). Air temperatures in the Arctic are

expected to increase at roughly twice the global rate and climate projections indicate

substantial loss of permafrost by 2100. A global temperature increase of 3°C means a 6°C

increase in the Arctic, resulting in a predicted loss of anywhere between 30% to 85% of near-

surface permafrost (UNEP, 2012). Permafrost thawing has significant impacts on the built

infrastructure (e.g. resulting ground subsidence causes damage to buildings, roads, airports

and pipelines), ecosystems (e.g. the number of wetlands and lakes are decreasing, reducing

critical habitat, particularly for migratory birds) and climate (e.g. carbon released to the

atmosphere in the form of methane amplifies global warming) (EPA, 2015). Shorter seasons

for the use of ice and snow roads severely impact northern communities that rely on land

transportation of goods to maintain reasonable retail costs and ensure economic viability

(AMAP, 2011).

3.2 OPERATIONAL DRIVERS

In addition to science and research in the polar regions, the other key drivers of

environmental information requirements are operational processes in the regions or

elsewhere that affect or support the activities in the regions. While there are relationships

and overlaps between operational domains, there is a lower level of complexity, as

illustrated in Figure 3.




12

Figure 3: Concept Map of Polar Operational Drivers

3.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment

Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are a typical prerequisite to the development of

any major infrastructure or resource development project in the polar regions. Such

undertakings include construction of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power transmission lines,

roads, railways and ports) and development of mine sites and oil and gas extraction sites.

EIAs consider the likely environmental effects of the proposed project, the adequacy of

proposed mitigation measures to protect the environment, and the significance of effects

after mitigation measures are implemented. Regulators consider many factors when

assessing the environmental impacts of projects, including for example (NEB, 2015):

physical and meteorological environment;

soil, soil productivity and vegetation;

wetlands, water quality and quantity;

fish, wildlife, and their habitat;

species at risk or species of special status and related habitat;

heritage resources;




13

traditional land and resource use; and

human health, aesthetics and noise.

In the European Union, EIAs are governed by the European Union Directive (85/337/EEC) on

Environmental Impact Assessments (known as the EIA Directive), which has been amended

several times (European Commission, 2015). Under the EU directive, an EIA must provide

certain information to comply, including the following categories:

Description of the project

Alternatives that have been considered

Description of the environment

Description of the significant effects on the environment

Mitigation

Non-technical summary (EIS)

Lack of know-how/technical difficulties

3.2.2 Engineering Design

The design of ships and offshore platforms and facilities for use in the polar regions must

take into account the unique environmental characteristics and challenges of operations in

the Arctic and Antarctica, and in particular, weather, sea ice and iceberg considerations.

Good ice performance of ships requires design of a hull shape that has a low ice resistance

and allows for different manoeuvres required in ice as well as good propulsion thrust, which

can be achieved with design of the propeller, sea water pumping on ice for lubrication (ice

breakers), and the hull lines so that propeller-ice interaction is minimized. Design of ice

capable ships is undertaken in accordance with the requirements of the International

Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Requirements Concerning Polar Class (IACS,

2011) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships

Operating in Polar Waters (known as the Polar Code) (IMO, 2015a) and involves

consideration of design aspects such as (Riska, 2010) (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012):

Ice resistance – the time average of all longitudinal forces due to ice acting on the ship,

divided into categories of breaking, submergence and sliding forces.

Performance in ice – measures by which the ship performance in ice is described, such as

speed(s) achieved in certain level ice thickness, penetration of certain size ridges with a

stated impact speed and ship turn of 180° in less than certain time in certain ice

thickness.

Hull shape design – aims at: minimizing the ice resistance; ensuring good manoeuvring

characteristics; enabling the ship to go astern as much and as well as the operational

description requires; and minimizing the amount of ice impacting on the propeller(s).




14

Machinery layout – to produce the required thrust for ship propulsion with the main

engine, power transmission and the propeller.

Hull and machinery strength – requires knowledge of the ice loads acting on different

regions of the ship hull, including considerations of ice pressure, load height, total ice

force, machinery loading

Construction materials – the critical factor associated with steel in ice capable ships is

resistance to brittle fracture from low temperatures and high loading conditions

Winterisation – design aspects influenced by cold weather or ice cover, but not covered

in the structural design of hull or machinery covered by the ice rules (e.g. heating ballast

water and fuel oil, clearing the sea bays, avoiding or mitigating the effects of ice

accretion, etc.)

Guidance on the design of offshore structures is provided by a number of international and

national regulatory, standards and industry bodies. For example, the Organization for

International Standardization Technical Committee 67 (ISO/TC 67) has developed a number

of standards related to offshore structures (ISO, 2015). ISO 19906, issued in 2010, codifies

established practice for Arctic offshore structure design based on input from leading experts

from industry, contractors, government agencies, and academia (Winkler & Strømme, 2014).

The British Standards Institution has 18 published standards and 12 standards under

development related to design of offshore structures (BSI, 2015). The Canada Oil and Gas

Installations Regulations (SOR/96-118) prescribe requirements for offshore installations and

platforms (Justice Canada, 2009). The American Petroleum Institute has published five

recommended practices for the design, construction, and maintenance of offshore

structures used in oil and natural gas drilling and production operations (API, 2014). And in

2011, the independent foundation Det Norske Veritas (DNV) published Design of Offshore

Steel Structures, General (LRFD Method) (DNV, 2011).

One of the key challenges in designing offshore structures is predicting the ice forces on the

platforms, which is often the controlling factor in platform design and operational procedure

development. Four methodologies are generally used in addressing ice engineering issues,

each with its own advantages and disadvantages (Timco, 2010):

Physical modelling in the laboratory – physically scaling the structure and the ice

properties and using scaling laws to determine ice loads and interaction behavior;

Numerical modelling – using sophisticated software to model the ice forces for specific

interaction scenarios;

Data mining – determining ice loads by re-analyzing previous field measurements; and

Field studies – conducting dedicated field programs to obtain in situ information on ice

properties and loads.




15

The presence of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground must be taken into consideration

in the design of buildings and facilities on land in the Arctic. Knowledge of thermal and

ground ice conditions is critical for sound engineering design in permafrost regions. As

indicated in Section 2.1.13, permafrost thawing due to global warming is a growing concern,

and special design and construction techniques are necessary to ensure that buildings and

structures do not exacerbate this problem.

3.2.3 Operations Planning

Operations within the polar regions, both on land and at sea, require careful planning and

preparation. Detailed planning is required for a range of operational activities in the Arctic

and Antarctic, including science and research field operations, travel and operations by

vessels and land vehicles in or through the regions, positioning and operation of offshore

drilling platforms, and traditional hunting. Effective planning helps to ensure safety of life,

proper functioning of equipment and protection of the polar environment.

Scientists and researchers working in the harsh conditions of the polar regions need to be

well prepared to ensure the success of their field work and their personal health and safety.

Government research programs have taken action to prepare their personnel through

training programs and documentation. An example is Antarctica New Zealand, which

publishes a Handbook providing information to help scientists and researchers prepare for

work at the Scott Research Station (Antarctica New Zealand, 2013), and a Field Manual

containing detailed information on operating safely in the field in Antarctica (Antarctica New

Zealand, 2012). A second example is the Participant’s Handbook to help prepare personnel

deployed to Antarctica by the British Antarctic Survey, which also provides pre-deployment

training, including a First Aid, Oil Spill Response and Winter Teams Training Week (British

Antarctic Survey, 2014). A final example is the Canadian Polar Continental Shelf Program’s

Arctic Operations Manual, which provides advice on conducting Arctic field work (Polar

Continental Shelf Program, 2012).

Planning of safe and effective transits by vessels to and through the polar regions is

principally focused on assessment of weather, sea ice and iceberg conditions. Analysis of

historical data covering the proposed route and time window of the operation can provide

key information to help plan the optimum routing. Planning of travel by vehicles on land

requires analysis of information about permafrost conditions and the state of winter roads

over frozen lakes and rivers. The predicted weather conditions for the operational period is

also a critical factor.

Given the high costs and risks associated with offshore oil and gas operations in the Arctic,

careful operations planning is of particularly critical importance. Similar to vessel transits,

sea ice and iceberg conditions are key planning considerations. Decision-support tools for




16

operational planning such as SSPA’s Transatlantic IceMaster (SSPA, 2010), Enfotec Technical

Services’ IceNav and IonGeo’s Narwhal help oil and gas operators to plan their operations

using a risk-based approach to help ensure safety of operations, resource optimization and

minimal environmental impact.

Indigenous populations in the Arctic still rely on sustainable access to ‘country food’, which

are traditional foods like arctic char, halibut, seal, whale, caribou, musk ox, etc. (Ottawa Inuit

Children's Centre, 2015). Accessing these food resources requires advance planning to

ensure that it is safe to travel over the ice in the prospective hunting and fishing areas. For

example, changes in sea ice coverage, thickness and timing of formation cause changes in

ocean currents, intensity of storms, distribution of marine flora and fauna, prey dynamics

(shifts in food web dynamics), accessibility to hunting locations, and traveling and hunting

safety, all of which require adjustments in Indigenous hunting and processing strategies (ICC-

Alaska, 2015).

Information accessible from, for example, Polar View’s ice edge monitoring service, which

provides up-to-date information on ice edge location, regions of land-fast ice, moving ice and

historical averages of ice cover in different areas of the Arctic, helps Northern residents

navigate safely and efficiently when hunting or travelling on ice (Polar View, 2015). However,

in some regions (e.g. in NW Greenland), changes in seasonal fast ice thickness and duration

have already necessitated major shifts in local fishing and hunting opportunities, with ice-

based long-line fishing and seal hunting replaced by much less productive boat-based fishing

and hunting.

3.2.4 Route Planning

Mariners that will be travelling through ice-covered waters must pay particular attention to

planning their routes. Route or passage planning is conducted in accordance with principles

set out in the IMO International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) (IMO,

2015a). Appraisal of the contemplated voyage takes into consideration factors such as

expected hazards along the intended route, the condition and state of the vessel, special

characteristics of the cargo, appropriate scale, accurate and up-to-date charts to be used,

appropriate meteorological and ice information, etc. Voyage planning addresses the

following factors: plotting of the intended route or track of the voyage; elements to ensure

safety of life at sea, safety and efficiency of navigation, and protection of the marine

environment; and details of the voyage or passage plan recorded on charts and in a voyage

plan notebook or on computer disk.

For voyages in the polar regions, route planning involves consideration of additional factors,

starting with a thorough assessment of the ice conditions that the vessel is likely to

encounter along the entire length of its planned route. The following limitations of the




17

elements of the ice navigation system plan are paramount, as identified in the CCG

guidelines Ice Navigation in Canadian Waters (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012): availability of

ice information; diminished effectiveness of visual detection of ice hazards in late season or

winter voyages; and increased difficulty of detecting ice hazards in combined conditions of

open ice and reduced visibility. Varying reliability of communications in both polar regions

also adversely affects the capability to receive up to date information.

Additional information that should be marked on the charts for planned voyages through

ice-covered waters include (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012): the anticipated ice edge, areas of

close pack ice and the fast ice edge; any areas of open water where significant pack ice may

be expected; safe clearance off areas known to have significant concentrations of icebergs;

and any environmentally sensitive areas where there are limitations as to course, speed, or

on-ice activities. As shipping continues to increase in volume and operators with less

experience or less capable ships begin to venture into these regions, even areas where ANY

ice can be expected must be noted.

3.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations

The IMO Guidelines for ships operating in polar waters, the precursor to the Polar Code that

is now mandatory for ships operating in polar waters, succinctly summarize the unique risks

of navigating through the polar regions (IMO, 2010):

“Poor weather conditions and the relative lack of good charts, communication systems and

other navigational aids pose challenges for mariners. The remoteness of the areas makes

rescue or clean-up operations difficult and costly. Cold temperatures may reduce the

effectiveness of numerous components of the ship, ranging from deck machinery and

emergency equipment to sea suctions. When ice is present, it can impose additional loads on

the hull, propulsion system and appendages.”

Once vessels begin travelling through ice-covered waters, the focus shifts to tactical route

planning to ensure safe navigation on a day-to-day basis. It is critical to obtain daily detailed

information on ice conditions. Adjustments are made to the planned route to take the best

advantage of optimum ice conditions, including finding open water leads or first-year ice

leads in close ice or old ice fields and avoiding areas of ridging and pressure or potential

pressure (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012). Once a new route has been laid out, it has to be

checked for adequate water depth and the two sources of information reconciled so that the

best route through the ice is also safe. Any change in weather conditions, particularly

visibility or wind direction and speed, must also be considered in tactical planning.

Expertise in navigating through ice is a typical requirement in regulations and guidelines

concerning navigation in ice-covered waters. For example, the IMO Polar Code requires that,

while operating in polar waters, masters, chief mates and officers in charge of a navigational




18

watch shall have special training for polar operation. The Polar Code requires that there are

enough trained personnel to cover all watches and permits the use of additional ice

navigators (IMO, 2015a). A second example, Transport Canada’s Guidelines for the Operation

of Passenger Vessels in Canadian Arctic Waters, also note the requirement under the Arctic

Shipping Pollution Prevention Regulations for an ice navigator to be on board vessels under

specific ice conditions (Transport Canada, 2005). In addition, insurers are increasingly

demanding verification of highly qualified Ice Navigators onboard ships entering polar waters

before confirming insurance coverage.

A special problem with safe navigation in polar waters has been the rapid increase in large

ship tourist cruises, especially in Greenland but also in Canada, Russia and Svalbard. Many

cruise ships do not have the necessary ice class, and only operate in the open water season

(which can still have a lot of icebergs), and sometimes in regions with poor bathymetric

surveys (e.g. in fjords, with an assumption of customary “safe” routes). Due to the limitations

in search and rescue (S&R) capabilities, two-ship operations are recommended, but rarely

followed, making these cruises especially prone to accidents. The Polar Code, when adapted

Arctic-wide, will improve this situation.

The Polar Code will take effect on 1 January, 2017. Among other things, the Polar Code

specifies a range of information that ships travelling in polar waters will be required to

access for planning and operations. The required information parameters are summarized in

Table 1. The colour coding indicates the current availability of the required information.

Operation of offshore structures and facilities like drilling platforms and underwater

pipelines in the polar regions is also a high risk venture. The need for and type of ‘real-time’

ice data depends upon the type and sensitivity of the operation to changing ice conditions,

the areal extent of the operations and the time required to relocate platforms. To ensure

safety of operations, typically any potentially dangerous ice within two to three days drift

from the facility is monitored multiple times every day, while ice further upstream is

updated daily (National Petroleum Council, 2015).




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Table 1: Polar Code Information Requirements

Historical Information

Current Conditions

Forecasts Risk Analysis Other Information

By location and

Date

By location By location By vessel, location

and date

By location

Temperature –

minimum low,

average low,

variance

Ice thickness –

maximum,

average,

variance

Iceberg

concentration –

average

Wind speed –

average,

variance

Wind direction –

average,

variance

Precipitation

Sea state

Cloud

Visibility

Temperature

Sea ice –

thickness,

ridging, extent,

age,

concentration,

pressure.

Icebergs -

locations

Wind

Sea state

Precipitation

Cloud

Visibility

Satellite images

Ice shelf extent

Fast ice extent

Temperature

Sea ice –

thickness, age,

extent,

concentration,

pressure

Iceberg

concentration

Wind

Sea state

Precipitation

Cloud

Visibility

Darkness

Vessel ice class

Season

Ice regime

Icebreaker

support

Vessel speed

Hydrographic

information

Aids to navigation

Places of refuge

Marine mammal

areas

Fuel locations

Designated

protected areas

Search and rescue

capability areas

Areas of cultural

heritage and

significance

Legend: Currently available to ships

Currently available, but not in a form accessible to ships

Not currently available

3.2.6 Risk Management

The dramatic environmental changes taking place in the polar regions are increasing risks for

operations in both the Arctic and Antarctica. While global warming is increasing seaborne

accessibility to the polar regions, it will also decrease the accessibility of inland areas. For

example, melting permafrost is increasing the risk of damage to roads and railways, as

illustrated by thawing of permafrost in Northern Canada causing the single-track railway line

to Churchill to buckle. This increases the risk of derailments, slows traffic and sometimes

halts it altogether (Emmerson & al, 2012). In addition, the reduction in sea ice increases the

distance over which waves gather strength and increases the exposure of the coast, putting

coastal infrastructure at risk. Climate change is also predicted to increase the risks of more

frequent extreme weather events, both on land and at sea in the polar regions. A side effect

of the rapidly melting ice sheets will be an increase in iceberg density, especially putting oil

and gas platforms at risk. More rapid snowmelt is increasing the risk of flooding. The




20

increased variability in break-up and freeze-up dates, as well as the shorter period that lakes

and rivers are frozen, makes the use of ice roads over these water bodies in the north more

dangerous (IGOS, 2007).

Operational risks in the polar regions derive from a number of sources, including (Emmerson

& al, 2012):

Geographical remoteness – geographical isolation increase the potential consequences

and costs of risk events

Electronic communications challenges – space weather, interference and geostationary

satellite geometry mean that high-frequency radio and GPS are degraded, a major issue

for communications, navigation, and search and rescue

Weather – extreme temperatures pose infrastructure design and worker safety

challenges

Icing – ships and coastal infrastructure exposed to sea-spray and storms experience

machinery seizure and malfunctioning equipment

Icebergs and bergy bits – cause risks to vulnerable offshore infrastructure and shipping

Ecosystem disturbance – economic activities in the polar regions can result in disrupted

caribou and whale migration patterns, pollution of land and sea areas and increased

prevalence of invasive species

Operators in the polar regions have developed and implemented their own risk management

systems. For example, Shell has put in place a number of risk controls, including: a Maritime

Safety Manual, Ship Quality Assurance Standard, Risk Management – Hazard Register and

Process Safety documented controls, and health, safety, security and environment

competence profiles (Shell, 2010). Through the Council of Managers of National Antarctic

Programs (COMNAP), national Antarctic research organizations have developed a number of

risk management guidelines (e.g. COMNAP / SCAR Checklists for Supply Chain Managers of

National Antarctic Programmes for the Reduction in Risk of Transfer of Non-native Species)

(COMNAP and SCAR, 2010).

3.2.7 Emergency Response

A critically important part of the emergency management life cycle, emergency response

involves taking action during or immediately after an emergency or disaster for the purpose

of managing the consequences. Given the extreme operating conditions and increased levels

of science/research and economic activity in the polar regions, emergency response

requirements are expected to increase. Emergency response organizations face the

combined challenges of moving responders and their equipment from bases of operation to

the emergency site and minimizing loss of life and injury and damage to infrastructure,

facilities and the environment.




21

Northern communities experience emergencies associated with natural events (e.g. forest

and tundra fires, floods, storm surges, permafrost melt, earthquakes, land, mud and snow

slides, avalanches, extreme cold weather, whiteouts, blizzards and high winds), as well as

man-made events (e.g. chemical and oil spills, fires, vehicle accidents). Indigenous peoples in

the Arctic have sustained their livelihoods based on their knowledge of natural systems for

thousands of years, but in some cases, such as travelling on sea, river and lake ice, this

traditional knowledge is becoming less reliable and emergency situations are increasing

(Funston, 2014).

A potential man-made emergency of particular concern is a major offshore oil spill, because

of the unique challenges of dealing with cleanup in a remote, hostile environment in sea ice

conditions. In 2013, the Arctic Council’s Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response

(EPPR) working group published a report with recommendations on the prevention of

marine oil spills in the Arctic (Arctic Council, 2013a). One of the recommendations is that

“Arctic Council states cooperate to improve the hazardous ice detection and monitoring

programs for Arctic waters. This includes satellite services, and the production and

dissemination of ice maps in real time.” At the Arctic Council meeting in 2013, member

states signed the Agreement on cooperation on marine oil pollution, preparedness and

response in the Arctic, which established measures for better collaboration between Arctic

countries on oil spill preparedness and response (Arctic Council, 2013b). In the North

American Arctic, there are considerable bilateral collaborative emergency response efforts

between the Canadian and US Coast Guards, while collaboration between Canada and

Greenland is at a more immature stage (Østhagen, 2014).

3.2.8 Search and Rescue

Search and rescue (S&R) can be defined as, “the search for, and provision of aid to, persons,

ships or other craft which are, or are feared to be, in distress or imminent danger” (DFO,

2000). In general terms, the primary objective of SAR operations is to prevent or minimize

loss of life or injury (DFO, 2000), (USCG, 2015). A secondary objective is typically to minimize

damage to or loss of property, where possible and when directly related to the first

objective.

Success in responding to emergencies involving severe injuries to personnel in remote

locations such as communities with no road access and offshore drilling platforms can be

impeded by inadequate communications infrastructure, increased response times, additional

evacuation risks or a reduced survival window (Schütz & al, 2015) (Kravitz & Gastaldo, 2013).

In May 2011 representatives of seven Member States of the Arctic Council (Canada,

Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, and Sweden) signed the

Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic




22

(Arctic Council, 2011). In principle, the Agreement has improved search and rescue response

in the Arctic by committing all parties to coordinate assistance to those in distress and to

cooperate in undertaking SAR operations. However, increases in operational capability have

been limited (e.g. Russia has built new S&R stations on the Arctic Coast and positioned a

fleet of icebreaking SAR response ships and aircraft in the Arctic and the US repositions a

limited response capability in the summer), and Canada has reduced its marine capability

and as yet does not position any air resources in theatre. Greenland has recently invested in

new large S&R helicopters, following Norway in Svalbard, to supplement their naval

inspection ships’ limited S&R capacity. The work to develop escape, evacuation, and rescue

(EER) systems for offshore operations is also reflected in numerous projects in the Arctic

such as the public-private sector SARiNOR project to create a collaborative national SAR

capability in Norway, and work on lifeboats designed for operating in ice-covered waters in

Northern Canada and the North Caspian Sea (Schütz & al, 2015).

Although no international accord similar to the Arctic S&R agreement exists for Antarctica,

five Southern Hemisphere countries (Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Argentina and South

Africa) all operate Rescue Coordination Centres and have responsibility for SAR in Antarctic

waters. The Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs actively promotes search

and rescue workshops – the third is scheduled to be held in June 2016 in Valparaiso

(COMNAP, 2015).

3.2.9 Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting involves the following processes (Toth, 2005):

Observing current weather conditions (i.e. initial condition) using in situ sensors, ocean

buoys, weather balloons and satellite sensors

Digest observational information (i.e. data assimilation) by bringing data into a standard

format to produce model initial state

Project initial state into future (i.e. numerical weather prediction or NWP model

forecasting) based on laws of physics plus thermodynamics

Apply weather forecast information (i.e. assessing uncertainty of the forecast using

probabilistic approach)

Weather forecasting using modern numerical weather prediction methods is no more

complex in any location than in the polar regions, where it is hampered by a lack of data. The

importance of the polar regions for weather and climate prediction has been recognized by

the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of WMO, which established the Polar

Prediction Project (PPP) for the period 2013-2022. The principal aim of the PPP is “to

promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and

environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on hourly to seasonal time scales.”

(WMO, 2015-1). Research is beginning to demonstrate that coupling between the




23

atmosphere and other climate systems (i.e. ocean, ocean surface waves, sea ice and snow)

can improve short-range weather forecasts. There are a number of scientific challenges in

the context of polar [weather] prediction, as described in (Fairall & al, 2013), including the

scarcity of observations, the unique balance of physical processes, the key importance of sea

ice, and the rapidly evolving climate. Gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting

in polar regions are hampering reliable decision-making related to operations.

3.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as “adjustment in

natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,

which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007). The European

Commission describes it this way: “Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of

climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can

cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise.” (European Commission, 2015).

According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),

adaptation involves five general activities: observation; assessment of climate impacts and

vulnerability; planning; implementation; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation

actions (UNFCCC, 2014). In response to the requirements identified in the second

assessment of the adequacy of observing systems for climate in 2003, the GCOS program

developed an implementation plan to develop the global observing system for climate

(GCOS, 2004).

Everyone who lives, works or does business in the polar regions will need to adapt to climate

change and its impact on the environment. Adaptation measures will include: establishment

of new laws, regulations and standards (e.g. new fishing regulations to deal with fish stock

changes; new standards for construction in areas affected by thawing permafrost); changes

in food sources (from country food); Northern community relocations; investment in new

transportation networks to cope with the shorter ice road season; and enhanced search and

rescue operations to respond to increasing traffic and risks at sea, to name a few (AMAP,

2011).

The range of organizations that are working on adaptation to climate change is significant

and growing. At the international level, this includes, for example, the International Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC, n.d.), the United Nations Working Group on Climate Change (UNSCEB,

2015), C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40 Cities, 2015) and the CGIAR Global

Agricultural Research Partnership (CGIAR, 2015). At the regional level, this includes initiatives

such as the Arctic Council’s Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic project (Arctic Council,

2015), Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN, 2015), European Environment Agency (EEA,

2013) and Environment Development Action in the Third World (enda, 2015). At the national

level, organizations like the US State, Local, and Tribal Leaders Task Force on Climate




24

Preparedness and Resilience (The White House, 2013), Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific

and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, 2015) and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture,

Forestry, Environment and Water Management in Austria (BMLFUW, 2015) are taking action

to prepare people in their jurisdictions to adapt to climate change.




25

4 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

The literature review revealed user information requirements in two categories – those that

were connected with a specific scientific user community (Section 4.1) or operational user

community (Section 4.1) and those that span multiple user communities (Section 4.2).

4.1 SCIENTIFIC USER COMMUNITY REQUIREMENTS

This section tabulates the specific kinds of environmental information parameter

requirements that have been identified for users in different scientific domains. They are

presented by specific domain (see Appendix 2 for details and references).

4.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Change Information

Atmosphere Research

Specific references to information parameters required for atmosphere research are

identified in Table 2.

Table 2: Information Parameter Requirements for Atmosphere Research

Parameter Reference

Absorbed shortwave radiation

Aerosol composition and amount

Brine content

Cloud optical depth

Cloud supercooled liquid water path distribution

Fractional snow coverage

Frost flowers

Glacier mass balance

Glacier/atmosphere interaction

Humidity

Ice dynamics

Leads

Sea ice texture

Snow conductivity

Snow density

Snow thickness

Temperature

Thickness of lake ice

Vertical structure of clouds

IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report

Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar

Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs




26

Climate Research

Specific references to information parameters required for climate research are identified in

Table 3.

Table 3: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Research

Parameter Reference

Atmospheric boundary layer instability

Glacier calving front locations

Glacier grounding lines (Antarctica)

Glacier mass balance and dynamics

Lake ice cover

Landfast sea ice distribution

Low-level cloud

Sea ice concentration

Sea ice deformation

Sea ice drift

Sea ice melt and freeze seasons

Sea ice thickness

Snow cover

Wind speeds and directions




Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010

Weather Research

Specific references to information parameters required for weather research are identified

in Table 4.

Table 4: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Research

Parameter Reference

Atmospheric boundary layer

Low-level cloud formation

Leads and polynyas

Lake ice cover

Sea ice information






27

4.1.2 Land Surface and Use Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for land surface and use change

research are identified in Table 5.

Table 5: Information Parameter Requirements for Land Surface and Use Change Research

Parameter Reference

Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)

Inundation / soil moisture

Lake/wetland extent

Leaf area index (LAI)

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)

River stage

The Role of Land-Cover Change in the High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle: Part 2

LCLUC Interactions with Arctic Hydrology: Links to Carbon Cycle

4.1.3 Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for ocean state and coastal zone

change research are identified in Table 6.

Table 6: Information Parameter Requirements for Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Research

Parameter Reference

Aerosols

Aquaculture

Atmospheric circulation

Bathymetry

Climate

Clouds

Fairways

Fisheries

Fluxes

Gravity

Harbours

Iceberg mass

Landfast ice

Routes for underwater cables and pipelines




Norwegian policies in ICZM and requirements for data and methods, adapting to climate change

Geographic Information Systems help manage coastal areas




28

Sea level

Sea ice information

Sea surface salinity (SSS)

Sea surface temperature (SST)

Sea swell

Sea traffic

Sea-ice extent and volume

Sediments

Slope of the coast

Structural conditions

Swell

Temperature

Vegetation

Wind transport

4.1.4 Ecosystem Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for ecosystem change research are


Table 7: Information Parameter Requirements for Ecosystem Change Research

Parameter Reference

Breakout and melting of fast ice

Ice on inland water bodies

Lake ice thickness

Sea ice biological and chemical constituents

Snow on ice



4.1.5 Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for species/organisms and food web

change research are identified in Table 8.




29

Table 8: Information Parameter Requirements for Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Research

Parameter Reference

First year ice (FYI)

Multi-year ice (MYI)

Sea-ice convergence and divergence

Snow cover [on ice]


4.1.6 Sea Ice Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for sea ice change research are


Table 9: Information Parameter Requirements for Sea Ice Change Research

Parameter Reference

Aerosols

Albedo

Atmospheric circulation

Clouds

Density distribution of snow and ice

Flooding at the snow-ice interface

Fluxes

Freeboard

Ice drift velocity


Sea ice extent

Sea ice melt

Sea ice motion

Sea ice thickness distribution

Snow depth

Temperature

Wind speeds and directions




4.1.7 River/Lake Ice Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for river/lake ice change research are





30

Table 10: Information Parameter Requirements for River/Lake Ice Change Research

Parameter Reference

Extent/location/duration of break-up flooding

First and last day of ice cover

Flood inundation area

Ice cover break-up sequence

Ice covering

Ice crystals

Ice jam locations

Ice type distribution

Lake ice thickness

Lake surface temperature

River ice jam

River/lake ice concentration

River/lake ice extent

Snow covered area on lake ice

Snow depth on lake ice

User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand


Cool research projects probe river ice life cycle

River ice mapping and monitoring using SAR satellites

4.1.8 Snow Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for snow change research are


Table 11: Information Parameter Requirements for Snow Change Research

Parameter Reference

Melting snow area

Snow cover fraction

Snow extent

Snow surface temperature

Snow surface wetness

Snow water equivalent

Snowmelt

Spectral surface albedo



https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CFQQFjAJahUKEwjl452k8OTHAhVQB5IKHbgnBcU&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrcan.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fwww.nrcan.gc.ca%2Ffiles%2Fthenorth%2F11-0441-River-ice-mapping_eng.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFWGcPXlOuB2IZnlxAliUh8tSW_ww&sig2=hSAq688pctpxiN94pMffmA&bvm=bv.102022582,d.aWw





31

4.1.9 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for ice sheet/glacier change research

are identified in Table 12.

Table 12: Information Parameter Requirements for Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Research

Parameter Reference

Glacier elevation change

Glacier ice velocity

Glacier lakes

Glacier outlines

Glacier thickness

Icebergs

Snow/ice area on glaciers



ESA Climate Change Initiative

4.1.10 Permafrost Change Information

Specific references to information parameters required for permafrost change research are


Table 13: Information Parameter Requirements for Permafrost Change Research

Parameter Reference

Surface temperatures Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs

4.2 OPERATIONAL USER COMMUNITY REQUIREMENTS

This section tabulates the specific kinds of environmental information parameter

requirements that have been identified for users in the different operational domains. They

are presented by specific operational domain (see Appendix 2 for details and references).

4.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment Information

Specific references to information parameters required for environmental impact

assessment are identified in Table 14.




32

Table 14: Information Parameter Requirements for Environmental Impact Assessment

Parameter Reference

Bathymetry

Current and proposed land use

Ecosystem dynamics

Geology

Ice conditions

Phases of ice processes

Phytoplankton production and decomposition

Plant and animal species

Sea ice cycles

Topography

Variability of ice edge


Environmental Impact Assessment in the Ice-Filled Waters, Do We Have the Necessary Information?

Australian guidelines for preparation of IEEs and CEEs

4.2.2 Engineering Design Information

Specific references to information parameters required for engineering design are identified

in Table 15.

Table 15: Information Parameter Requirements for Engineering Design

Parameter Reference

Bathymetry

Ice drift speed

Ice frequency

Ice island fragments

Ice islands

Ice keel depth and frequency of occurrence

Ice temperature and salinity

Ice thickness

Ice vertical strength

Seismic acceleration

Soil properties

Water depth

Water depth

Wave erosion

Development Drilling and Production Platforms

ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations



http://helion-ltd.ru/environmental-impact-assessment






33

4.2.3 Operations Planning Information

Specific references to information parameters required for operations planning are


Table 16: Information Parameter Requirements for Operations Planning

Parameter Reference

Floe size

Ice (sail height

Ice draft

Ice elevation

Keel draft

Large ice masses

Meteorological conditions

Meteorological forecasts

Oceanographic conditions

River and lake ice thickness

Sea ice charts


Sea ice edge location

Sea ice edge movement

Sea ice forecasts

Sea ice multi-year ridges and hummocks

Sea ice pressure

Sea ice pressure

Sea ice ridge length

Sea ice ridging intensity

Sea ice sail height

Sea ice thickness

Sea ice type

Snow thickness

Underwater profiles of icebergs

Void spaces in deformed ice




4.2.4 Route Planning Information

Specific references to information parameters required for route planning are identified in

Table 17.




34

Table 17: Information Parameter Requirements for Route Planning

Parameter Reference

Ice and iceberg charts

Sea ice information

Thickness of lake ice




4.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations Information

Specific references to information parameters required for safe navigation and operations


Table 18: Information Parameter Requirements for Safe Navigation and Operations

Parameter Reference

Bergy bits

Breakout events

Cracks

First year ice

Floe size

Fresh-water and sea ice extent and thickness

Grounded ice ridges

Growlers

Sea ice age/type

Sea ice cover

Ice drift monitoring and forecasting

Sea ice edge location

Ice on inland water bodies

Iceberg draft

Landfast (fast) ice

Leads and polynyas

Meltponds

Multi-year ice

Pack ice pressure

Permafrost









35

Quantity of multi-year ice floes and ridging


Sea ice deformation

Sea ice drift and deterioration

Sea ice freeboard and surface elevations

Sea ice concentrations (total and partial)

Sea ice location and extent

Sea ice ridges

Sea ice stages of development

Sea ice thickness

Sea level or sea-surface height

Snow cover

Snow on ice

4.2.6 Risk Management Information

Specific references to information parameters required for risk management are identified in

Table 19.

Table 19: Information Parameter Requirements for Risk Management

Parameter Reference

Sea ice cracking networks

First year sea ice

Hydrographic data

Multi-year sea ice

River ice duration and break-up

Satellite navigation information

Sea ice bottom


Sea ice movements

Sea ice ridges

Sea ice strength

Sea ice thickness

Sea ice type

Snow grain shape

Snow grain size

Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North



Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community White Paper


IMO Polar Code




36

Snow liquid water content

Snow stability

Snow stratigraphic structure

Snow strength

Snowmelt

Weather information

4.2.7 Emergency Response Information

Specific references to information parameters required for emergency response are


Table 20: Information Parameter Requirements for Emergency Response

Parameter Reference

Air temperature

Average wind and current directions

Historical weather data

Leads and polynyas

Monthly or seasonal maximum, minimum, mean values for wind and current speeds

Ocean current data

Precipitation

Sea ice drift characteristics

Sea ice timing of freeze-up

Surface current

Temperatures

Transition to winter conditions

Water temperature

Wave

Wave heights

Wind


Guidelines for Offshore Oil Spill Response Plans

In Environmental Impacts of Arctic Oil Spills and Arctic Spill Response Technologies

4.2.8 Search and Rescue Operations Information

Specific references to information parameters required for search and rescue operations are





37

Table 21: Information Parameter Requirements for Search and Rescue Operations

Parameter Reference


Sea ice drift

Sea ice rubble accumulation

Sea ice topography


4.2.9 Weather Forecasting Information

Specific references to information parameters required for weather forecasting operations


Table 22: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Forecasting Operations

Parameter Reference

Aerosols

Air quality

Air-sea momentum flux

Albedo of snow and ice surfaces

Atmospheric/oceanic chemistry

Cloud microphysics

Clouds

Direct flux

Glaciers

Humidity

Ice sheets

Sea ice thickness distribution

Icing

Lake ice cover

Latent heat

Leads

Marginal sea ice zone

Meltponds on sea ice

Moisture

Ocean salinity profile

Ocean surface currents

Ocean surface gravity waves

Ocean surface roughness

Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months

High Arctic Weather Stations


Observational Aspects of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project

Workshop Report on Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate and Related Impacts








38

Ocean surface temperature

Ocean surface wind stress

Ozone profiles

Permafrost

Precipitation

Pressure

River ice freeze-up and breakup times

Lake ice freeze-up and breakup times


Sea ice types

Sea ice cover

Sea ice deformation

Sea ice deformation and redistribution during ridging

Sea ice drift

Sea ice extent

Sea ice forecasts

Sea ice freeze-up and breakup times

Sea ice mass balance

Sea ice sails and keels of pressure ridges

Sea ice thickness

Sea ice velocity gradients

Seismic and magnetic recordings

Snow cover

Snow crystal structure

Snow density

Snow depth

Snow depth on ice

Snow extent

Snow temperature


Snowstorms

Soil freeze-up and breakup times

Solar and terrestrial radiation levels

Surface temperature

Surface wave spectra

Temperature




39

Wind speeds

Wind direction

4.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation Information

Specific references to information parameters required for climate change adaptation

operations are identified in Table 23.

Table 23: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Change Adaptation Operations

Parameter Reference

Above-ground forest biomass

Aerosol

Aerosol extinction profiles

Aerosol layer height

Aerosol optical depth

Aerosol single scattering albedo

Air pressure

Air temperature

Albedo

Seasonally-frozen ground

Black-sky and white-sky albedo

Burnt area

Carbon

Carbon dioxide partial pressure

Carbon dioxide, methane and other GHGs

Cloud amount

Cloud effective particle radius

Cloud optical depth

Cloud properties

Cloud top pressure and temperature

Cloud water path

Current

Digital elevation models

Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance

Earth radiation budget (top-of-atmosphere and surface)


Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011 Update

The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC






40

First year ice

Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR)

Glacier and ice cap outlines

Ground water

Ice sheet elevation changes

Ice sheet mass change

Ice sheet velocity

Lake levels

Lake areas

Land cover type

Land surface temperature

Leaf area index (LAI)

Liquid and solid precipitation

Methane

Multi-year ice

NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO

Nutrients

Ocean colour

Ocean tracers

Oceanic chlorophyll-a concentration

Other long-lived greenhouse gases

Ozone

Ozone profiles from upper troposphere to mesosphere

Permafrost

Phytoplankton

Precipitation

Radiative power

Reflectance anisotropy (BRDF)

River discharge


Sea ice cover

Sea ice drift

Sea ice edge

Sea ice extent

Sea ice thickness




41

Sea level

Sea level rise

Sea state

Sea surface salinity

Sea surface temperature

Sea level global mean and regional variability

Snow areal extent

Snow cover


Soil moisture

Surface radiation budget

Surface wind speed and direction

Temperature of deep atmospheric layers

Total and spectrally-resolved solar irradiance

Total column ozone

Total column water vapour

Tropospheric and lower-stratospheric profiles of water vapour

Tropospheric ozone

Upper tropospheric humidity

Upper air temperature

Upper air temperature (including MSU radiances)

Upper-air wind speed and direction

Water use

Water vapour

Wave direction

Wave height

Wave time period

Wave wavelength

Wind speed and direction




42

4.3 USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS

The literature review also identified many references to environmental information needs in

the polar regions that span across scientific and operational domains. The sources of these

information needs were:

Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) Observational Requirements website

Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR) website


Mission Concepts for a Polar Observation System Final Report

ART Priority Sheets for Future Directions of Arctic Sciences: Arctic Biodiversity Priority

Sheet; Land-Ocean Interactions Priority Sheet; Arctic Oceanography Priority Sheet; Proxy

Calibration and Evaluation Priority Sheet; Physical Processes in Arctic Sea Ice Priority

Sheet; and Paloeoceanographic Time Series from Arctic Sediments Priority Sheet

GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan – Annual Update 27 November 2014

Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic

Aperture Radar

Coordinated SAR Acquisition Planning for Terrestrial Snow Monitoring

INTERACT Research and Monitoring

ESA DUE Permafrost Requirements Baseline Document and Final Report v2

SAR Science Requirements for Ice Sheets

Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science: The Way Forward

Sentinel Convoy Analysis Reports: Ocean and Ice Observation Capabilities, Gaps and

Opportunities; EO Atmosphere Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities; and Sentinel

Convoy for Land Processes Task 1: Critical Review and Gap Analysis

The Contribution of Space Technologies to Arctic Policy Priorities

WMO 2012 Survey on the Use of Satellite Data

Preliminary scientific needs for Cryosphere Sentinel 1-2-3 products

Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate –

2011 Update

Ice Information Services: Socio-Economic Benefits and Earth Observation Requirements

2007 Update

Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the

Cryosphere


Outline of a Technical Solution to a Global Cryospheric Climate Monitoring System

Specific references to information needs in each of these sources can be found in Appendix

3. A brief summary of the key parameter requirements in the major information categories

follows.




43

4.3.1 Sea Ice

Exhibiting the most widespread use across scientific and operational communities, sea ice

parameters were identified in approximately 70 percent of the reference documents, with

the top five parameters in order of the number of references being: sea ice thickness, sea ice

motion / drift, sea ice concentration, sea ice extent and sea ice pressure / ridges /

deformation.

4.3.2 River and Lake Ice

Some 55 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for river and lake ice

parameters, with the most important being: river / lake ice extent, river / lake ice thickness,

river / lake ice concentration, river / lake ice freeze-up and break-up dates and snow depth

on river/lake ice.

4.3.3 Snow

Some 55 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for snow parameters,

with the most important being: snow cover area / extent, snow water equivalent, snow

thickness / depth, snow and ice albedo and snowpack condition / structure / stratigraphy.

4.3.4 Atmosphere

Atmospheric parameters were identified in approximately 55 percent of the reference

documents, with the top five parameters being: chemistry / greenhouse gases, surface air

temperature, precipitation amount, surface wind direction and speed and precipitation rate.

4.3.5 Ice Sheet

Ice sheet parameters were identified in approximately 40 percent of the reference

documents, with the top five parameters being: Ice sheet extent / margin, ice sheet basal

melt magnitude, ice sheet mass change, ice sheet flow velocity and ice sheet snow

accumulation.

4.3.6 Permafrost

Permafrost parameters were identified in approximately 40 percent of the reference

documents, with the top five parameters being: permafrost extent / distribution, onset of

seasonal permafrost freezing, permafrost active layer freezing depth, seasonal frost heave /

thaw subsidence and permafrost thickness.

4.3.7 Land

Some 40 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for land parameters, with

the most important being: land use / cover and change, land surface temperature, soil

moisture, above-ground biomass and biome / ecosystem identification and change.




44

4.3.8 Glaciers and Ice Caps

Glacier and ice cap parameters were identified in approximately 35 percent of the reference

documents, with the top five parameters being: glacier / ice cap location and area, glacier

mass balance, glacier topography, glacier ice thickness and glacier velocity / flow rate.

4.3.9 Oceans

Some 35 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for ocean parameters,

with the most important being: marine ecosystem functioning, sea surface temperature, sea

surface salinity, sea level and freshwater inputs / loads.

4.3.10 Icebergs

Of interest to a smaller group of users, primarily for operational purposes, iceberg

parameters were identified in some 23 percent of the reference documents, with the most

important being: iceberg size / dimensions, iceberg detection / location, iceberg draft,

iceberg motion / velocity and iceberg mass.




45

5 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS

This chapter presents the results of the analysis of information collected on user

requirements for environmental information parameters through the literature review and

stakeholder consultations. Section 5.1 deals with current information needs, categorized by

parameter theme, and the current capability to meet these needs. Section 5.2 and 5.3

summarize current deficiencies in information products and services and future information

needs, respectively, identified in the consultations with users. Section 5.4 identifies how user

needs for environmental information will evolve as a result of political/policy, economic,

social/cultural and technological trends impacting the polar regions. Appendix 4 provides the

analysis details to support the conclusions presented in Section 5.3.

5.1 CURRENT INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

The current information requirements revealed by our literature review cover a broad

spectrum of environmental parameters. While many of them appear to be in relatively short

demand since they are required for research in very specialized areas, a significant number

are of common interest to many users in both the science/research and operations

communities. To illustrate the range of requirements and the evident importance of specific

information parameters, Figures 4 to 13 illustrate the frequency with which the parameters

in the major categories of environmental information were referenced in the literature that

we reviewed. A brief analysis of the current capability to meet these information needs,

based on the stakeholder consultations and other information sources, including the World

Meteorological Organization’s Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review (OSCAR)

tool (WMO, 2014) and the Global Cryosphere Watch’s Observational Requirements tool

(GCW, 2015), follows each illustration.




46

Figure 4: Relative Importance of Atmosphere Parameters

The needs of the atmospheric, climate and weather research and operational communities

for environmental information are generally being met, with a few notable exceptions. For

example, AMAP has identified requirements for improved observations of black carbon and

tropospheric ozone (AMAP, 2015a), methane (AMAP, 2015b) and contaminants (Hung & al,

2010) (Muir & de Wit, 2010). While limited information is available on current capabilities to

address the broad range of atmospheric chemistry parameters, no evidence of major

shortcomings has been identified. New capabilities to address atmospheric measurements

relating to air quality, climate forcing, ozone and UV radiation (e.g. O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, CH4

atmospheric gases) are expected to be provided by the Sentinel-5P mission between 2017

and 2022. Precipitation parameters are provided currently by sensors such as MODIS, SSM/I,

AMSU and HIRS/3 and will be available from the Sentinel-3 mission in 2016/17. For

precipitation parameter requirements, spatial resolution and timeliness of data accessibility

requirements are being met but temporal resolution requirements (i.e. repeat cycles for

satellite observations) do not meet expectations. Improvements are required in the

temporal resolution for some precipitation, cloud and humidity parameters. A parameter

worthy of note is the spatial resolution goal for ‘horizontal wind speed over the surface’ for

high resolution NWP (0.5 km), which is considerably below the current capability (5 km). No

evidence was found of shortcomings in meeting the requirements for radiation parameters.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Lightning

Pressure

Humidity

Radiation

Temperature

Wind

Chemistry

Cloud

Air Quality

Precipitation

Atmosphere




47

Figure 5: Relative Importance of Land Parameters

Requirements for most of the categories of land parameters illustrated in Figure 5 are being

met, with current measurement capabilities for spatial and temporal resolution being well

within minimum necessary requirements. Exceptions are biota (i.e. fauna) for which there is

inadequate spatial and temporal resolution information, and vegetation/land cover, for

which there is lack of consistency in products that will allow phenology studies over long

timescales.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Fauna

Ground Motion

Geology

Topography

Water Quality

Change Detection

Albedo

Fire

Soil Moisture

Biomass

Hydrology

Land Use

Ground Temperature

Vegetation

Land

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Bathymetry

Wind

Waves

Chemistry

Water Quality

Freshwater Input

Circulation

Salinity

Temperature

Sea Level

Ecosystems

Ocean




48

Figure 6: Relative Importance of Ocean Parameters

Requirements for most categories of ocean parameters are being met, with current

measurement capabilities for spatial and temporal resolution being significantly under

minimum necessary requirements. AMAP has identified requirements for improved

observations of contaminants (Muir & de Wit, 2010). There are no major differences

between current and goal requirements with the exceptions of the temporal resolution

requirements for the parameters ‘ocean currents’ and ‘sea surface salinity’ for ocean

forecasting research (24 days vs. 6 days). Sentinel-1 is contributing to improved wave

information and the Sentinel-3 mission is expected to provide new information for sea

surface temperature, sea level, surface topography, marine sediments and ocean colour.

Notable exceptions are biota (i.e. ecosystems), for which information is not available on

sustained and regular timescales, temperature, for which the quality of near ice edge and

marginal ice zone information is inadequate, and waves, for which there is inadequate wave

height/period information with penetration into ice cover.

Figure 7: Relative Importance of Sea Ice Parameters

Users’ requirements for several sea ice parameters are not being fully met currently. The

shortcomings are:

Extent – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; inadequate

discrimination between first year and multi-year ice; integration with ice concentration

information required

Motion – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations, which need near

real-time service delivery

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Albedo

Volume

Type

Contents

Snow Cover

Deformation

Melting

Motion

Concentration

Extent

Thickness

Structure

Sea Ice




49

Snow Depth – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; insufficient

quality with current sensor and algorithm combinations; integration with ice thickness

information required

Structure/Age – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; lack of

nested products to satisfy large to small scale applications

Thickness – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations

Topography – inadequate spatial resolution for operations

The existence of snow on top of sea ice creates problems in reliable measurement of ice

thickness, concentration and extent from space. While meteorological modelling of snow

thickness using EO from space can produce an approximation of ice thickness, this is not

reliable enough for navigation use, where snow on top of the ice increases the difficulty of

passage through ice-covered waters. The Sentinel-3 mission is expected to provide enhanced

capabilities for production of ice concentration and ice freeboard information, but lack

coverage of central parts of the Arctic Ocean (beyond 82 N) due to orbit limitations.

Figure 8: Relative Importance of Lake / River Ice Parameters

There are a number of areas where the current capabilities for development of lake / river

(or freshwater) ice information parameters fall short of the suggested minimum

requirements. For example, the required spatial resolution compared with available

resolution for the following parameters is: ‘ice extent’ (100 m vs. 250 m); ‘floating /

grounded ice extent’ (5 m vs. 10 m); and ‘flood extent’ (5 m vs. 10 m). In addition,

shortcomings in spatial resolution for thickness and temporal resolution for ice extent,

structure and thickness were identified.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Mass

Flooding

Damming

Motion

Structure

Snow Cover

Duration

Concentration

Thickness

Extent

River & Lake Ice




50

Figure 9: Relative Importance of Snow Parameters

Requirements for a number of snow parameters are not being fully met with current

capabilities. Shortcomings include:

Depth – inadequate spatial resolution; insufficient quality with current sensor and

algorithm combinations

Extent – inadequate spatial resolution

Freeze/Thaw – time series product that allows identification of ice layers within snow

required

Snow Water Equivalent – inadequate spatial resolution; insufficient use of integrated

satellite and in-situ observations and inadequate models

Sentinel-3 is expected to contribute to improved information for snow depth and density

parameters.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Mass

Duration

Content

Structure

Melting

Albedo

Thickness

Snow Water Equivalent

Extent

Snow




51

Figure 10: Relative Importance of Ice Sheet Parameters

The minimum spatial and temporal resolution requirements for most ice sheet parameters

are partially being met. Outlet glaciers and marginal regions, which show the largest

changes, are not being measured sufficiently accurate by radar altimetry missions, including

the upcoming Sentinel-3 mission, where central parts of Antarctica is not covered either. The

use of repeat orbits for ocean altimetry, further limits the use of such missions over ice caps

due to unmeasured gas. Other parameters where minimum requirements are not fulfilled

include ‘snow depth’ (snow/firm/ice distribution; insufficient quality with current sensor and

algorithm combinations), and ‘iceberg calving’, ‘mass change’ and ‘ice thickness’ (inadequate

spatial and temporal resolution).

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Iceberg Calving

Albedo

Structure

Motion

Snow Cover

Volume

Extent

Thickness

Melting

Ice Sheets




52

Figure 11: Relative Importance of Glacier / Ice Cap Parameters

Requirements for a number of glacier / ice cap parameters are not being fully addressed with

current capabilities. These include the parameters: ‘topography’, for which the minimum

spatial resolution requirement of 30 m is below the currently available resolution of 100s of

m, and the temporal resolution is also inadequate (1 year vs. 5 years); the inadequate

temporal resolution of ‘velocity’ (1 month vs. 1 year); and the inadequate spatial resolution

(15 m vs. 50 m) and temporal resolution (5 days vs. 1 month) of ‘dammed lakes’. Inadequate

spatial and temporal resolutions were also identified by users for ‘iceberg calving’, ‘mass

change’, and ‘thickness’. Similar to ice sheets, current ‘snow depth’ information suffers from

insufficient quality with current sensor and algorithm combinations.

Figure 12: Relative Importance of Iceberg Parameters

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Albedo

Iceberg Calving

Dammed Lakes

Melting

Motion

Snow Cover

Structure

Volume

Thickness

Extent

Glaciers

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Origin

Extent

Motion

Concentration

Position

Size

Icebergs




53

The minimum spatial and temporal resolution requirements of science users for all iceberg

parameters are being partially met. For the parameter ‘draft’, the minimum spatial

resolution requirement of 1 m is below the currently available resolution of 10 m, and for

‘size’, the minimum temporal resolution requirement of 2 hours is below the currently

available resolution of 1 day. These statements relate to icebergs in the open ocean, with

optical missions; all parameters for icebergs in sea ice still represent a major challenge.

Operational users need higher resolution data on a near real-time basis to identify the size of

icebergs and detect the presence of growlers and bergy bits that pose risks to navigation.

Figure 13: Relative Importance of Permafrost Parameters

The needs of users of permafrost information are generally being met with current

capabilities, although no space-based methods exist for measurement of permafrost

thickness. The current spatial resolution capabilities for several parameters fall below the

minimum requirements: ‘distribution’ (or extent), for which the minimum requirement of 1

km is below the currently available resolution of 10 km; ‘surface temperature’ (100 m vs. 1

km); and ‘seasonal freezing distribution’ (10 km vs. 25 km). Also of note is the goal spatial

resolution of 1 km for ‘seasonal freezing distribution’, well below the current capability of 25

km.

5.2 DEFICIENCIES IN AVAILABLE INFORMATION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

In addition to the specific shortcomings discussed in Section 5.1, the stakeholder

consultations provided valuable feedback on the current deficiencies in access and delivery,

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Structure

Water Volume

Erosion

Duration

Temperature

Motion

Extent

Thickness

Permafrost




54

satellite tasking and standards and identified several information parameters/variables or

products that are not yet available. The Gaps and Impacts Report provides detailed analysis

of gaps in information products and services.

The ability to find, assess and access available products and services is of concern to many

respondents, with several specific impediments mentioned. Cost is a concern, especially on

orders made for data acquisition with short lead times and for some commercial data

products (e.g. RADARSAT). Obtaining access to data was mentioned by several respondents

(e.g. VIIRS data being more difficult to access than LANDSAT and MODIS data, EU/ESA data

being more difficult to access than US data (although initiatives like Copernicus MyOcean are

moving in the right direction) and until recently restrictions on rapid access to SENTINEL-1 by

scientific institutes outside of the EU). Users expressed interest in better dissemination of

information about available products and services and more powerful platforms to order,

download and retrieve data based on a specific geographic area. More user-friendly

platforms are of interest to users with limited technical capabilities. Finally, bandwidth

constraints continue to be a major impediment for ship’s officers at sea to access high

quality ice information products for navigation in the polar regions and for northern

communities for travel near the sea ice edge.

Several respondents noted problems with availability of data from different satellite and in

situ sensors. For example, lack of Sentinel data in some specific geographic areas for

timeframes of interest (e.g., western part of Antarctic region, forested areas of Finland,

Baltic Sea) has been identified as a deficiency. Concerns were raised about the inadequate

frequency of data acquisition over the polar regions and the latency (i.e. turnaround time)

between data acquisition and the availability of processed data. Understandably, this is of

greatest concern to organizations that require products and services for near real-time

applications such as navigation and high resolution numerical weather prediction. The

sparseness of in-situ sensor networks is also of growing concern, reducing the opportunities

for their use in geospatial ground-truthing and rectification of space-based EO data and

model calibration.

The challenges with tasking satellites for simultaneous or near-simultaneous data collection

for production of integrated products and services were highlighted by several respondents.

This requirement relates to simultaneous collection of data with different satellite sensors

(e.g. SAR and altimeter data) as well as collection of satellite and in situ data in the same

timeframe. The difficulties in tasking satellites to target specific geographic areas with

limited advance notice were also identified as a deficiency.

The need for improvement of standards was referenced by several respondents, both from a

standardization of data and a data veracity perspective. The formats available for the

products should be such that the products can be easily ingested together with other




55

products (i.e. georeferenced). Lack of standardization of products provided by the ice

services was also mentioned. The Arctic SDI initiative is viewed as a possible means of

addressing the data standards deficiency. Concerning data veracity, shortcomings in the

validation of some public domain EO data (e.g. ice freeboard, surface currents) and the need

for provision of error estimates for sea ice products were mentioned, as was improving the

robustness of information retrieval generally from remote sensing data (e. g. error

quantification, reduction of uncertainties) and providing detailed, easy-to-understand

descriptions of the applied methods and their limitations for higher-order products (e. g.

retrieval of sea ice thickness).

Finally, a number of information parameters/variables or products were identified that are

of interest to the user community but are not yet available, including:

Increased temporal resolution of the small changes in water volume during phase change

from solid to liquid in snow or sea ice (i.e. going from 0-3% water by volume), which is

very important for the evolution of the system, changing the physics of the ice

Measurement of sea ice meltwater draining into the ocean, which can be measured with

in situ instruments but there is room for increased detection using other technologies

such as UAVs, AUVs, LiDAR, etc.

Satellite programs that have as their basis a more multidisciplinary approach to how

coupling processes between the marine and terrestrial environment work

Measurement of the overall salinity and delivery of freshwater from the terrestrial to the

marine environment

Detection of large masses of discarded fish of low or no commercial value by fishing

vessels (prohibited by the EU Landing Obligation)

5.3 FUTURE INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

Respondents provided a range of perspectives on how their information requirements are

expected to change in the future. In most instances it was difficult for them to differentiate

their expected requirements between the short, medium and long terms. Very few

respondents reported that their needs for information will remain unchanged in the future.

Increased demand for environmental information in the polar regions is expected to arise

from multiple sources. Growth in traffic by government vessels for ice breaking, fisheries

surveillance and search and rescue operations will grow as shipping and tourism traffic

increases and the operational season extends to eight months and beyond. The commercial

fisheries are migrating further north and south, with extended seasons in ice-infested

waters. As traffic continues to grow, there are also expectations that responses to




56

emergency situations (e.g. grounded vessels, oil and chemical spills) will also increase in

frequency.

A requirement that generally applies to most user communities is for data at a higher spatial

resolution and based on sensor collection at an increased frequency (i.e. higher temporal

resolution). For example, coastal zone research stakeholders have an increasing need for

near-shore information at a much higher resolution, including SAR imagery, for examining

ocean acidification, forecasted algae blooms, etc. on a more precise level. Another example

is fisheries management, where a two-tiered approach to accessing information (e.g. using

coarser resolution products to focus the acquisition of higher resolution data over a specific

geographical area) will be employed in the Southern Ocean.

Near real-time applications requiring higher frequencies of satellite imaging for production

of ice and iceberg dynamics products and services are expected to increase (e.g. support of

higher levels of shipping traffic, direction of fishing vessels to safe waters in the polar

regions, fisheries resource management and real-time monitoring of illegal fishing activity

and navigating cruise vessels through ice-infested waters). In addition, since fishing vessels

will remain in waters that will freeze or become ice-infested as long as they can, high quality

near real-time information will be increasingly important so that they can extend the fishing

season as long as possible. Since satellite collection of ocean colour data is limited by cloud

cover, a higher imaging frequency than once daily is required to increase the possibility of

cloud-free imagery, so 10 or 20 times per day is desirable in the short-term. There is an

increasing requirement in risk monitoring (e.g. oil spills, air pollution, wildlife) during arctic

operations for higher temporal frequency of data collection, either by satellite or in-situ.

Demands for future reductions in the latency period for access to near real-time products

(i.e. period of time between data acquisition and availability of products) are also common.

The demands for simultaneous collection of different types of data and for integration of

data are expected to grow. In addition to the interest in integrating data collected by

satellite, airborne and in situ sensors, crowd-sourced data provided by citizens will

increasingly be available for potential use in the future. Using better coupled systems (e.g.

satellites running in tandem, such as a limb sounder looking at the boundary layer in the

atmosphere at the same time as obtaining SAR and thermal IR images of the surface), or

simultaneous collection of multi-frequency data (e.g. X, C, L Ku and S band) is expected to

increase in importance. Answers to some of the most complex scientific questions in the

polar regions require data integration, including integration of surface and satellite

observations. In addition, since indigenous peoples in the Arctic will be required to adapt to

climate change to a greater extent than their southern neighbours, integration of traditional

knowledge with the information being produced by scientists will be essential to make

adaptive management practices work effectively.




57

Several references were made by respondents to the changes in information requirements

that will be imposed by the Polar Code, which will come into effect in 2017. Vessel officers

need to comply by 2018 and obtain Polar Certificates to show that their vessels can be

operated under certain ice conditions and temperature. Therefore, high resolution imagery

(tens of meters, swath 100 km) and ice cover information, such as density, age and thickness

that can be delivered to the master on the ship bridge will be in higher demand.

Specific new or improved data variables or processes that were identified for future use

included:

More reliable sea ice thickness information

More reliable high resolution sea ice concentration information

High-resolution monitoring of rapidly changing outlet glaciers and ice sheet margins

A pan-Arctic dataset of in situ snow measurements

Improved methods for estimating snow water equivalent and snow depth and a Pan-

European service for snow water equivalent and snow cover fraction

Improved methods for estimating ice thickness from space, augmented by denser in situ

measurements of ice thickness

Greater demand for higher resolution products for route planning and for navigation on

ship bridges (e.g. locations of icebergs in pack ice, ice concentration, ice type, ice

thickness)

Reduction of uncertainties in modeling cryospheric processes (e.g. permafrost models

under-represent ice content and the insulating effect of the organic layer; climate models

do not resolve the steep topography of the Greenland Ice Sheet margins; models of

snow-vegetation interactions need to be improved; and models that link meteorology to

glacier mass balance need to incorporate downscaling techniques and satellite data)

Information scaling, bridging the gap between discrete in-situ point measurements at the

local level and large area coverage satellite data to a middle ground where catchment

area sized datasets are needed, scaled up from the local level and scaled down from the

broad satellite coverage.

Increased demand for cross-polarisation radar and multispectral images

Integration of sea surface temperature and salinity data with ocean colour data

Collaborative efforts between the public and private sector to collect in situ oceanographic

data are expected to increase. For example, the Commission for the Conservation of

Antarctic Marine Living Resources is exploring a partnership with the Coalition of Legal

Toothfish Operators (COLTO) WG for Science Collaboration to have relatively inexpensive

oceanographic sensors added to the fishing gear of COLTO members. Another example is the

work of the Alaska Ocean Observing System group with ferries and fishing companies to

collect ocean bottom temperatures, etc. and with Marine Exchange of Alaska to have vessels

in Alaskan waters return sea ice conditions as part of their AIS signal package.




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Concerns about the veracity of data products will place an increasing focus on improving the

robustness of information retrieval from remote sensing data (e. g. error quantification,

reduction of uncertainties) so researchers have improved knowledge of the information

reliability and its limitations for achieving their specific research goals, which will heighten

the need for in-situ observations. Users are calling for detailed, easy-to-understand

descriptions of the applied methods for generation of higher-order products (e. g. retrieval

of sea ice thickness) and their limitations.

Reference was made to new types of sensors that will be required to meet future needs. For

example, a need for ocean colour sensors that are polar-orbiting, and have higher frequency

measurements like the one that was considered for the PCW project, was identified, as well

as better sensors for detecting the amount of light and other properties underneath the sea

ice and other physical sea ice properties, such as ice thickness and snow thickness. The

requirement for new hyperspectral sensors enabling more accurate land cover classifications

and change detection was also identified. C-Band and X-band radiometers with high

resolution will be required (e.g. 3-5 km with very little atmospheric interference in that

frequency range), in particular for sea ice concentration and SST applications.

Finally, the demand for value-added, integrated data services is expected to grow in the

future. Having professional services available that assess all the different data sources and

products and provide information services that integrate the best data and provide it to

users is a better option for some users than building up internal capability.

5.4 POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL/CULTURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL (PEST) TRENDS

The key trends that may impact users’ future information needs were identified (see

Appendix 4 for details). This section provides an assessment of the significance of the

identified PEST trends for how user needs for environmental information will evolve.

5.4.1 Impacts of Political/Policy Trends

The impacts of political/policy trends can be divided into the following categories (Polar

View, 2012):

Sustainable economic development

Safety

Environment

Sovereignty

Indigenous and social development




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Sustainable Economic Development

Economic development lies at the heart of the policies of the majority of Arctic nations and

the EU. Generally this encompasses the exploitation of natural resources, both renewable

resources such as fisheries, forestry and marine mammals, and non-renewable ones,

particularly fossil energy resources and minerals, and other economic activities in and

dealing with the Arctic (e.g. tourism and shipping). For the main participants in these

economic development activities (i.e. oil and gas and mining companies, fisheries, shipping

and tourism operators), the combination of a warming climate and a supportive political and

policy environment represents future growth opportunities that will produce increasing

demands for environmental information. EO capabilities of particular relevance include the

mapping and characterization of snow and ice cover (land and sea ice), the assessment of

land stability within permafrost regimes and the description of land cover and land use

changes.

Closely associated with sustainable economic development is the need for supportive

infrastructure development (e.g. energy network pipelines, road systems, railways and deep

sea ports, and buildings to access, process, store, and ship resources) and community

infrastructure expansion (e.g. private and public buildings, landfills, sewer, water, and solid

waste facilities). Although EO has only limited applications in infrastructure development,

demand will grow for its use in the preliminary planning for location of assets, where high

resolution optical imagery is a useful tool for investigating location and routing alternatives,

and in the monitoring of the effects of subsidence due to permafrost melting on buildings

and pipelines.

Improvement of the North’s transport efficiency is also important for the overall

development and viability of the region. The current focus on improving the connections

within the region and with neighbouring countries addresses concerns such as (Polar View,

2012):

Improvement in safety and maintenance of road transport networks;

Modernization of existing and development of new railways;

Improvement of existing capacity in maritime ports;

Promotion of multi-modal transport; and

Safety during periods of ice break-up of river and sea ice.

Demand for EO-based information for improving the efficiency of transportation in the Arctic

will grow with the increased focus on economic development. There will be a need to

expand routine ice charting to the entire Arctic basin at a higher resolution and to produce

localized ice information products (e.g. for access to specific ports or coastal installations).

Safety




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Given the importance of increased shipping in the polar regions, there is some prominence

in policies on safety of marine transportation. The primary safety risks are from various

forms of ice and the principal safety application of EO concerns safe marine transportation

and offshore operations in the presence of sea ice and icebergs. There will be increasing

demands for critical information on sea ice and iceberg location and characteristics derived

from satellite imagery by vessels and operations in ice-infested waters for strategic and

tactical decision-making. Road transportation will also increase with expansion of resource

development in the Arctic. A warming climate is reducing the effective season for use of ice

roads and creating higher maintenance costs as permafrost areas become less stable. The

primary safety risks are related to travel over fragile ice and the potential for vehicle

submersion if the ice is too weak to support the vehicle. In the case of ice roads, EO

surveillance is required at a high resolution, with the key parameters being the completed

freeze-up and melt-onset, which define the start and end dates for operating ice roads.

Search and rescue (S&R) is often mentioned in polices affecting polar regions. S&R

effectiveness is heavily impacted in these regions because the length of time for response

may be protracted due to the severe climate, great distances involved, and the relative

shortage of personnel and equipment. The major contributions of EO within a S&R context

include (Polar View, 2012): the provision of locations of vessels or aircraft in distress if other

options are not available; the delivery of a rapid, synoptic view of the surroundings of an

emergency (e.g. ice conditions, land cover, access routes); and the derivation of

environmental parameters used to predict search zones (e.g. wind fields and sea surface

temperature, used to assess life expectancy during emergencies at sea). Increased economic

activities in the polar regions will increase the risk of distress situations occurring and

produce growing demands for EO-based products and services to support S&R efforts.

Policy documents also often reference the importance of creating effective emergency

response capabilities to mitigate the impacts of potential disasters such as contaminant spills

and severe flooding events. Flooding may occur due to ice jams in rivers, substantial rainfall

or snow melt over frozen ground, storm surges or outburst floods from glacial lakes.

Contaminant spills, largely oil, are more likely to occur as a result of increased resource

extraction and vessel traffic as receding summer ice cover makes the Arctic more accessible.

If weather conditions are conducive, optical EO can provide detailed information about the

extent of the disaster, the type of destruction that has occurred, and the areas most severely

impacted. Satellite radar data delivers valuable information during bad weather conditions

and at night and is also the primary means of observing ice over large areas as well as the

detection and monitoring of marine oil spills.

Environment




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Pollution is expected to become a much more significant problem as the Arctic region

becomes more industrialized and marine transportation through Arctic waters becomes

commonplace. Dealing with pollution is referenced in several of the Arctic nations’ policy

documents. In the Arctic, the major sources of pollution are from the following sources

(Polar View, 2012):

Air pollution – smoke and particulates from extraction of minerals, oil and gas; volcanic

eruptions; pollution from natural or manmade disasters

Water pollution – wastewater discharges from extraction of minerals and oil; oil spills

from illegal bilge pumping and accidental tanker ruptures; pollution from natural or

manmade disasters

Soil contamination – leaching from mining tailings; pollution from natural or manmade

disasters

The applications of earth observation to pollution in the polar regions are expected to grow

in importance as economic development-supportive polices are implemented. Radar EO is

particularly suitable for oil spill detection and monitoring. Multispectral EO is useful for

monitoring vegetation stress, algal blooms and variations in water sediment loads that may

result from pollution of land and water from mineral extraction, industrial activities and

increased human habitation close to water bodies. EO is also applicable to monitoring

specific sites of known impact (e.g. deposition of mine tailings), detecting changes over time

(e.g. changes in vegetation cover as a result of industrial activities), studying transboundary

pollution, and assessing compliance with regulatory requirements (e.g. discharge of

pollutants from vessels and offshore structures).

Not surprisingly, the environmental topic that is of most concern to Arctic nations, and that

is given priority in their policies for the region, is climate change and its impact on the

ecosystems and peoples of the north. For lower latitude countries, the primary impacts are

the potential changes of climate due to Arctic feedbacks, and especially, global sea level rise

due to melting of both Arctic and Antarctic glaciers.

The primary effects of ongoing changes in the climate of the Arctic include loss of sea ice,

and melting of permafrost and the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite imaging is a primary means

for monitoring and measuring the major changes on land and water that are attributed to

climate change and providing many of the oceanic and terrestrial ECVs required to support

the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental

panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the impacts of climate change are particularly severe

and noticeable in the Arctic, EO will continue to be highly relevant in this region. However,

the climate change research community will require additional spatial resolution for radar

imagery and improved temporal resolution for optical imagery to meet its future needs.




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Biodiversity conservation is another environmental topic of significant importance in polar

region policy. Complex interactions between climate change and other factors (e.g.

pollution, habitat fragmentation, industrial development, and unsustainable harvest levels)

have the potential to magnify impacts on biodiversity. There is already evidence that climate

change is impacting Arctic species, with some populations of polar bear, reindeer/ caribou

and shorebirds in decline in the High Arctic. There are two approaches to the use of EO for

biodiversity studies (Polar View, 2012): direct remote sensing of individual organisms,

species, or ecological communities from satellites; and indirect remote sensing of

biodiversity through reliance on environmental parameters as proxies. While there have

been limited applications of these approaches in the Arctic, as climate change affects species

diversity in the region and snow and ice cover is for shorter periods, the relevance of EO for

biodiversity monitoring is expected to increase.

Finally, protection of the environment and vulnerable species is a policy priority for a

number of Arctic nations. Environmental protection is particularly critical in the Arctic

because the region is highly sensitive and its human population and culture is heavily

dependent on the health of the region’s ecosystems. Expected growth in the importance of

the primary applications of EO for environmental protection are for detection and

monitoring of environmental contaminants (e.g. oil and chemical spills, mining tailings,

industrial, commercial, and residential refuse, etc.), managing vulnerable species (e.g. polar

bears in the Arctic) and monitoring of regulatory compliance (e.g. environmental

remediation and reforestation of mining sites and illegal fishing).

Sovereignty

Border protection is an area of special interest that is reflected in a number of the Arctic

nations’ policy documents. Border protection usually includes managing access to borders by

large numbers of people and goods moving over land, by sea and by air, while maintaining

the integrity of the border and providing protection from threats to the country’s security

and prosperity. The focus of security in the Arctic is primarily on governments effectively

controlling their jurisdictions. EO satellite systems provide valuable imagery that can be of

benefit in identifying and tracking the movement of illegal goods such as drugs and nuclear

materials. The most applicable systems for border protection purposes are the high

resolution optical imaging systems, which are required to ensure positive identification of

illegal activities. As economic activity in the polar regions intensifies, the importance of

border protection is expected to increase and the significant challenges for use of EO in

identification and tracking applications in border protection (e.g. the differing repeat

coverage cycles of the various systems, trade-offs between spatial resolution and areal

coverage) will need to be addressed.

Indigenous and Social Development




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The values, beliefs and social development of the indigenous population have always been a

primary concern to the majority of the Arctic states, which have policies in place that focus

on maintaining traditional livelihoods, protecting cultural heritage and ensuring healthy and

safe northern communities. Recognition through international law of indigenous rights has

provided the foundation for Arctic indigenous groups to lobby for greater political autonomy

and economic recognition, while at the same time allowing them to protect their traditional

livelihoods (including fishing, hunting and reindeer herding). EO is used to produce maps and

other real-time information products that allow hunters and fishers to safely navigate

around dangerous areas, including ice ridges, moving ice or stretches of open water. EO can

also be used in land management and monitoring of Indigenous territories (e.g. Inuit-owned

lands managed by regional land claim organizations in Canada) (Nunavut Tunngavik

Incorporated (NTI), n.d.). The information will become even more vital in the future for

augmenting traditional knowledge that previously guided travel routes, which is less reliable

under a changing climate.

5.4.2 Impacts of Economic Trends

As referenced in the previous section, sustainable economic development goals are a

primary driver of the increased interest in the polar regions. The impacts of economic trends

on user needs for environmental information can be divided into the following major sectors

of growth in the regions:

Resource development

Tourism

Fisheries

Transportation and shipping

Resource Development

Non-renewable resource development is viewed as a primary source of economic

development in the Arctic, whereas the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the

Antarctic Treaty (The Madrid Protocol) prohibits mining in the Antarctic. In recent years, the

mining industry has enjoyed historically high prices for iron, copper, gold, coal, rare earths,

uranium and other metals and minerals that are available in the Arctic. While prices for

many mineral resources are now dropping and the mining industry will continue to face

cyclical demand for its products, the expected trend is towards longer term strong market

growth. The recent dramatic reduction in oil prices has obviously had a significant impact on

that industry’s interest in offshore oil production in the Arctic. For example, although Royal

Dutch Shell proceeded in August 2015 with its plans to drill in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska

(Bradner, 2015), it announced in late September 2015 that it is abandoning its Arctic search

for oil (Schaps, 2015). Similar to the mining industry, the prevailing view in the oil and gas

industry is for a longer term return to a price level that will make Arctic offshore production




64

economically viable. The Government of Greenland, for example, actively encourages new

exploration areas such as the potentially highly rewarding, but also near-permanently ice

covered and ecologically sensitive NE Greenland shelf region, the assumed northern

extension of the North Sea/Norwegian graben structures.

While the markets for non-renewable resources may be depressed in the short term,

medium and long-term growth will spur increased demand for EO-based products and

services. As suggested previously in the section on Sustainable Economic Development, both

radar and optical imagery at higher resolutions and related ice, snow and permafrost

information products will be required to support planning and execution of resource

extraction programs, development of related infrastructure and shipping of mineral and

petroleum products from the Arctic to market.

Transportation and Shipping

As discussed in Section 4.4.2 on Economic Trends, marine vessel traffic for transportation of

people and shipment of goods to and through the polar regions is expected to continue to

grow in step with economic development. Rising concerns about environmental damage

resulting from this growth has placed a greater emphasis on safety (e.g. work of the

Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group under the Arctic

Council, and the new International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (or ‘Polar

Code’)). This focus will increase the future importance of environmental information to

support safe navigation, such as sea ice and iceberg information products and services. As

suggested previously in the section on Safety, there will be a similar growth in demand for

information to support safe land transportation over permafrost areas and ice roads over

frozen lakes and rivers as climate changes makes the safety of these routes less predictable.

Tourism

Adventure tourism is a growth industry worldwide and trips by air and cruise ship to the

Arctic and Antarctic are expected to increase in number and cover longer periods of the year

as climate warming makes the polar regions more accessible. The impacts on the demand for

environmental information in the future are similar to the impacts in the transportation and

shipping industry. Growing concern about the impacts of large numbers of visitors on fragile

landscapes in both polar regions will also escalate demand for environmental information to

help monitor land cover and ecosystem damage. Concerns are also growing about the

increased number of cruise ships, and the safety concerns related to insufficient bathymetric

mapping and deficient S&R capability.

Fisheries

There are active and growing fisheries in both the polar regions. The information needs for

planning and executing fishing operations are similar to those for transportation and




65

shipping. As commercial fisheries extend further into the Arctic with increased melting of the

sea ice, fishing vessels will require daily updates of ice extent, concentration and strength in

order to move quickly and safely in ice-infested waters to areas that will maximize their

catch. Fisheries management organizations like CCAMLR will require high quality, near-real

time sea ice information in order to direct fishermen to the safest areas on a day-to-day

basis. High resolution information will also be required to detect and take enforcement

action against vessels engaged in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing activities. The

five Arctic coastal nations (Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Kingdom of Norway, the

Russian Federation and the United States of America) are discussing the implementation of

interim measures to prevent unregulated fishing in the high seas portion of the central Arctic

Ocean (NOAA, 2015).

5.4.3 Impacts of Technological Trends

The technologies of most relevance in the polar regions are telecommunications, personal

computing, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) automatic identification systems (AIS)

and long-range unmanned systems (UAS).

Telecommunications

As identified in Appendix 4, there are a number of scheduled and planned

telecommunication satellite systems that are intended to help address the current low

bandwidth constraints in the Arctic and Antarctic. Success in the launch and deployment of

these missions will provide new (and perhaps expensive) means of transmitting

environmental information to scientific and operational users in the regions. Undersea fibre

optic is also being explored by at least one company, providing another potential option for

transmitting high volume environmental information to users. The removal of the bandwidth

constraint will facilitate the development and growth of commercial, integrated polar data

services and open up new markets for EO data use in the polar regions.

Personal Computing

As the telecommunications infrastructure in the Arctic improves and EO-based services

mature, citizens and businesses in Northern communities will be empowered to make better

plans and operational decisions with the deployment of personal computing devices.

Relatively low cost personal computing will enable more widespread use of information

services and increase opportunities for citizens to consume data in their daily lives.

GNSS

The limitations of positioning and navigation with GNSS in the polar regions, primarily due to

MEO orbits and increased ionospheric activity causing signal disruption, represent a problem

for precise positioning, particularly in the vertical plane. Satellite-based augmentation is also

limited by too few reference stations being available in the systems’ ground segment in the




66

Arctic. Although there have been proposals to address these shortcomings (e.g. use of the

existing Iridium network for broadcasting SBAS messages in the Arctic), the future ability to

meet the demands for integrity and consistency in applications requiring high precision like

dynamic positioning appears uncertain.

AIS

With the promise of persistent global coverage with revisit times less than one minute by

2017, space-based AIS (S-AIS) will provide near real-time locations of AIS-equipped vessels in

the polar regions. Primary applications of surveillance for regulatory enforcement and safety

of vessel navigation will benefit from this increased level of service. Fisheries enforcement

agencies are already using S-AIS feeds and satellite imagery to detect IUU fishing activities,

and integrated information services will be of growing interest to these organizations, as well

as environmental agencies that are monitoring illegal discharges of contaminants by vessels

into the ocean. How` `ever, vessels involved in illegal activities often turn off their AIS to

avoid detection.

UAS

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) (i.e. remotely piloted aircraft) potentially can increase

sovereignty monitoring and border and fisheries control in remote areas, especially in

tandem with satellite surveys, where UAS can provide the necessary high-resolution data for

positive identification. Dual-use of UAS could also provide high-resolution sea ice data for

augmenting satellite missions. Several countries are currently investigating UAS options for

year-round surveillance, including the Danish Defense for surveillance of Greenland waters.

5.4.4 Impacts of Social/Cultural Trends

The primary social/cultural trends of relevance from an environmental information

perspective are the changes that have been imposed on indigenous people in the Arctic by

global warming. The acquisition and consumption of country food remains important to

many indigenous peoples of the north. This is being impacted by a number of factors (e.g.

changing ice conditions that make hunting and fishing more unpredictable and dangerous,

damaged ecosystems that are increasing the mortality rates of species they depend upon for

food, and the increasing incidence of invasive species and vector-borne diseases that are

compromising the quality of meat and fish available). To help mitigate the impacts of climate

change on traditional livelihoods, provision of easily accessible and usable ice information

(especially ice edge information products) will be increasingly important as sea ice becomes

more unstable.

A number of coastal Arctic communities are also becoming more vulnerable to the impacts

of sea level rise and more frequent severe storm events. EO information is required for

monitoring coastal zone changes and to help identify options for adaptation or even




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community relocation in the most extreme cases. Resource extraction, and in particular

mining, also has significant cultural implications since mine development caribou/reindeer

grazing areas and migration routes, which impacts northern livelihoods. Examples are

emerging of how geographic information systems and EO-based information are being

employed to communicate impacts and improve decision-making (Herrmann & al, 2014).




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APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES TO SCIENCE DRIVERS

The following sections identify where specific references to the drivers of science and

research activities in the polar regions were identified in the literature review.

ATMOSPHERE, CLIMATE AND WEATHER CHANGES

The Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan undertaken by the Scientific

Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) identified as one of six priorities defining the global

reach of the Antarctic atmosphere and Southern Ocean, and the question, “How do

interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and ice control the rate of climate change?”

and “What additional ice, rock and sediment records are needed to know whether past

climate states are fated to be repeated?” as key research questions to be addressed

(Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014).

The Earth Observation Science Strategy updated in 2015 by the European Space Agency

(ESA) identified as a challenge, “Interactions between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface

involving natural and anthropogenic feedback processes for water, energy and atmospheric

composition” (ESA, 2015).

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science

Plan and Experimental Design identified as one of the scientific questions around which its

specific observational and modeling activities are organized, “How do ongoing changes in the

Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale heat and mass transfers of

importance to climate and ecosystems?” and one climate-related scientific question around

which specific observational and modeling activities of MOSAiC are organized is, “How do

ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale heat and

mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?” (MOSAiC Coordination Team,

2014).

A recent planning workshop for an international research program on the Coupled North

Atlantic-Arctic System, jointly convened by the National Science Foundation Division of

Ocean Sciences and the European Union (EU), identified as one of the key climate processes

and socio-economic-policy concerns, “…how will a changing Arctic cryosphere influence

ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby influencing biogeochemical processes and

ecosystem structure?” (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015).

Other indications of interest in atmosphere changes that are driving the need for

environmental information in the Polar Regions include:




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The challenges “Impacts of transient solar events on Earth’s atmosphere” and “the

representation of the terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate

models” identified in the SCAR horizon scan (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014).

The strategic foci being placed on “physical and biological forcing of atmospheric

chemistry in polar atmosphere” by the Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) (WMO, 2011-1).

The identification of “improve representation of key processes in models of the polar

atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere” as one of eight key research goals by the

World Weather Research Programme Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) in its

Implementation Plan (WMO, 2013).

In Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) a question related to

priorities for Arctic marine science over the next decade is, “How does the transition to

warmer climate affect the lateral and vertical distribution of water masses in the Arctic

Ocean and what is the potential impact on the ecosystems of the continental shelves?”

The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)

identifies the following challenges concerning improved understanding and quantification of

information related to climate and weather include, “Changes in atmospheric composition

and air quality, including interactions with climate.” “Interactions between changes in large-

scale atmospheric circulation and regional weather and climate.” “Regional and seasonal

distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice, climate, marine ecosystems

and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.” “Mass balance of grounded ice sheets, ice caps

and glaciers, their relative contributions to global sea-level change, their current stability and

their sensitivity to climate change.” “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects

on the climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the

terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.” “Changes taking

place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate system and

terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes).” “Physical and

biogeochemical air–sea interaction processes on different spatiotemporal scales and their

fundamental roles in weather and climate.” “Sea-level changes from global to coastal scales

and from days (e.g. storm surges) to centuries (e.g. climate change).”

In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) key science questions on the role of the

cryosphere in climate are, “What will be the nature of changes in sea-ice distribution and

mass balance in response to climate change and variability?” “What is the likelihood of

abrupt or critical climate and/or earth system changes resulting from processes in the

cryosphere?”

A science plan for a collaborative international research program on the coupled North

Atlantic-Arctic system, a report of a Planning Workshop for an International Research

Program on the Coupled North Atlantic-Arctic System (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015)




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identified as one of the key climate processes and socio-economic-policy concerns, “…how

will a changing Arctic cryosphere influence ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby

influencing biogeochemical processes and ecosystem structure?” Research questions

identified include, “What are the critical dynamic processes and feedbacks driving variability

and change in the North Atlantic-Arctic climate system?” “How will biogeochemical

processes of shelf and open ocean waters of the North Atlantic and Arctic respond to

changes in climate and increasing human pressures?” “How will marine ecosystem structure

and function respond to environmental change in climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry,

and human pressures?”

In Final Report: Polar Space Task Group First Session (WMO, 2011-1) the preliminary list of

areas of strategic foci includes, “Polar atmospheric, ocean, cryosphere and terrestrial

products to facilitate improved weather, climate and environmental observation, monitoring

and prediction”.

The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy

(Rintoul & al, 2011): includes the following overarching scientific challenges, “The role of the

Southern Ocean in the planet’s heat and freshwater balance – Substantial uncertainty

remains with regard to the high-latitude contributions to the global water cycle, the

sensitivity of the water cycle to climate change and variability, and the impact of changes in

the high-latitude water cycle on the remainder of the globe.”

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges report (WCRP, 2015):

includes the following current Grand Science Challenges: “Clouds, Circulation and Climate

Sensitivity – Limited understanding of clouds is the major source of uncertainty in Climate

Sensitivity…” “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the reduction of

Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost… remain an important

source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change.” “Understanding and

Predicting Weather and Climate Extreme – The world climate research community is

challenged by underlying science questions and the quality and coverage of the

observational data that are used to monitor and understand extremes…” “Regional Sea-Level

Change and Coastal Impacts – These efforts will focus on all components of global to local

sea level changes and will consider the necessary analyses on global and regional climate

change data and simulations, extreme events and potential impacts…”.

In State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook (Forbes, 2011) one

knowledge gap and research priority is, “Ecological state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to

better understand the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate…”.




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One of the biggest unanswered questions identified by the Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost

in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere report (AMAP, 2011) was, “How

will changes in the Arctic cryosphere affect the global climate?”

The Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic: An assessment conducted for the

European Union report (Stępień, Koivurova, & Kankaanpää, 2014): provides the following

recommendations that impact the direction of science and research in the Arctic, “Climate

Change in the Arctic: Sustaining systematic observation activities…; contributing to

international co-operation and acting via own energy policy: primary policy areas for EU

action regarding climate change…; supporting regional and local adaptation…”.

The WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 (WMO, 2011-2) cites the importance of enhanced

capabilities of members to “deliver and improve access to high-quality weather, climate,

water and related environmental predictions, information, warnings and services…”,

“…reduce risks and potential impacts of hazards caused by weather, climate, water and

related environmental elements”, “…produce better weather, climate, water and related

environmental information, predictions and warnings…”, “…access, develop, implement and

use integrated and interoperable Earth- and space-based observation systems for weather,

climate and hydrological observations…” and “…contribute to and draw benefits from the

global research capacity for weather, climate…”.

In European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European

Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) scientific question areas include, “Thermohaline circulation

(THC) – a crucial element for heat transport globally and profoundly influences atmospheric

circulation and the Earth’s climate”, “Climate impact on terrestrial ecosystems – measuring,

understanding and predicting complex interactions between species in response to

environmental changes”, “Climate impact on marine systems – effect of climate change on

timing of reproduction at various trophic levels, causing disruption of predator-prey

relationships or patterns of competition amongst species” and “Permafrost on land and

under water – obtaining more reliable projections of how climate variability will affect the

permafrost and vice-versa through measurements of temperature, ice content of

permafrost, and of annual thaw depths in different parts of the polar regions”.

In Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the

UNFCCC - Executive Summary (GCOS, 2004) scientific needs of the parties under the UNFCCC

include, “Characterize the state of the global climate system and its variability; Monitor the

forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions;

Support the attribution of the causes of climate change; Support the prediction of global

climate change; Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and

local scales; Enable characterization of extreme events important in impact assessment and

adaptation, and to the assessment of risk and vulnerability”.




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In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of

Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What will be the climatic, ecological, and

societal impacts of sea ice loss?”, “How do Arctic clouds, aerosols, radiation, and boundary

layer processes drive change in the Arctic climate system?”, “How will climate-induced

natural changes and associated human activities (e.g., shipping, interest in resource

development) affect marine mammal populations?”, “How unusual is the current Arctic

warmth?”, “How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather

patterns in lower latitudes?”, “How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic

Ocean and subpolar basins?”, “Why do global climate models underestimate the loss of

Arctic ice?”, “How can we quantify the role of climate feedbacks, their variability in space

and time, and their impact on both climatic and environmental variables?”, “How will

changes in atmospheric circulation affect pollutant sources, pathways, and processes in

Arctic ecosystems and communities?”, “What benefits and risks are presented by

geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent or reduce

climate change and associated impacts in the Arctic?”, “What are the impacts of climate and

environmental change on Arctic communities and how can communities adapt effectively?”,

“How do the distinctive features of Arctic climate change (long time horizon, uncertainty,

variable spatial scale, complexity of natural systems, interdependence of actors) shape

human perception and response?” and “What are the impacts of extreme events in the new

ice-reduced system?”

LAND SURFACE AND USE CHANGES

The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) identified the importance of historical and

archaeological studies on changing land-use patterns of native people, and the distribution

of fossil mega-fauna in addressing the research question, “What were the principal forcing

mechanisms responsible for regional variations in sea ice cover and biological productivity

during past environmental transitions?”

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges report (WCRP, 2015)

cited the need to better understand “how changes in land surface and hydrology influence

past and future changes in water availability and security” as a Changes in Water availability

challenge.

The Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic: An assessment conducted for the

European Union report (Stępień, Koivurova, & Kankaanpää, 2014) includes the

recommendation, “Land-Use Pressures in the European Arctic: increase knowledge

generation and sharing, and include social impact assessment more effectively in the

environmental impact assessment process”.




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identified the following challenges related to the land surface and use:

Natural processes and human activities and their interactions on the land surface.

Structural and functional characteristics of land use systems to manage sustainably food,

water and energy supplies.

Land resource utilisation and resource conflicts between urbanisation, food and energy

production and ecosystem services.

How limiting factors (e.g. freshwater availability) affect processes on the land surface and

how this can adequately be represented in prediction models.


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “Will the land be wetter or drier, and what are

the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems?”, “How will

changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic

communities?”, “How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing

urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies?” and “How can 21st-century development

in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still

benefiting global and Arctic inhabitants?”

OCEAN (SEA) STATE CHANGES

The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) identified the importance of “proxies derived

from marine sediments that provide the most continuous archive for sea ice conditions, and

large-scale oceanic changes”, “impact on sea ice patterns of atmospheric drivers, ocean

currents or sea water properties” and “modification in the lateral extent and vertical

distribution of the water masses in the Arctic Ocean” in addressing priority arctic science

questions.


noted the following ocean-related research challenges:

“Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice,

climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.

Effects of changes in the cryosphere on the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation.

Evolution of coastal ocean systems, including the interactions with land, in response to

natural and human-induced environmental perturbations.

Mesoscale and submesoscale circulation and the role of the vertical ocean pump and its

impact on energy transport and biogeochemical cycles.”

In its Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy, the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) noted

the following relevant research priority themes for 2011-2015 (AOSB: MWG, 2011):




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“Scientific knowledge of the past and present status of the Arctic Ocean combined with

process-based understanding of the mechanisms of change and responses in the physical

and biological systems

… circulation and overturning of the ocean

… studies of relevant properties of the full water column of the central Arctic Ocean on a

regular basis and studies from the coast, over the vast continental shelves and across the

continental margin (at least every 5 years) are required, as well as evaluation of changing

sediment geochemistry over the shallow Arctic shelves

Improving access to the paleo record of the Arctic Ocean”

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) identified as a key science question, “What

will be the impact of changes in the cryosphere on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation?”




identified the following research questions that address important issues concerning the

ocean:

“How will biogeochemical processes of shelf and open ocean waters of the North Atlantic

and Arctic respond to changes in climate and increasing human pressures?

How will marine ecosystem structure and function respond to environmental change in

climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and human pressures?”


(Rintoul & al, 2011) describes as some of the overarching scientific challenges in the

Southern Ocean: the role of the Southern Ocean in the planet’s heat and freshwater balance;

the stability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation; the role of the ocean in the

stability of the Antarctic ice sheet and its contribution to sea-level rise; and the future and

consequences of Southern Ocean carbon uptake.

One of the current science challenges in understanding and predicting weather and climate

extremes identified in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges

report (WCRP, 2015) is “underlying science questions and the quality and coverage of the

observational data that are used to monitor and understand extremes such as … coastal sea

level surges and ocean waves”.

The report European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF

European Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) lists as one of its areas of strategic focus, “Polar tele-

connections – ensuring a bipolar perspective in polar research due to the ‘bridge’ between

the two polar areas via oceanic and atmospheric connections”.




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Sciences, 2014), a research question is, “How much of the variability of the Arctic system is

linked to ocean circulation?”

The report AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean Acidification (AMAP, 2013) notes that

“Stratification [due to freshwater inputs from rivers, glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet],

and the addition of poorly-buffered freshwater are two important factors that enhance the

Arctic Ocean’s sensitivity to ocean acidification.”

COASTAL ZONE CHANGES


identifies as a challenge, “Evolution of coastal ocean systems, including the interactions with

land, in response to natural and human-induced environmental perturbations.”

The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook report (Forbes, 2011)

identifies as knowledge gaps and research priorities the need to improve understanding of

“the impacts of a changing sea-ice regime and wave climate on coastal stability,…

vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate, rapid development, shipping and

tourism,… [and] societal risks of industrial activities in Arctic coastal regions… “. The report

also identifies as knowledge gaps and research priorities concerning the physical state of the

circum-Arctic coast, “…the role of river-ocean interaction and the filtering/buffering role of

deltas on carbon and nutrient delivery,… need for resources to support sustained coastal

monitoring,… [and] need for new, integrated monitoring approaches to document the

nature of environmental change and human interaction with biophysical conditions in the

Arctic coastal zone…”.

The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) contains the research question, “How will a

modified hydrological cycle and changes in coastal physical conditions affect the delivery and

transport pathways of fresh water and particulate and dissolved materials across the

terrestrial-marine interface?”

ECOSYSTEM CHANGES

The Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science report (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014)

identified as one of the key research questions to be addressed, “What is the current and

potential value of Antarctic ecosystem services and how can they be preserved?”

The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) listed as questions

related to priorities for Arctic marine science over the next decade:




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“How are transitions in the location and extent of marginal ice zones, leads and polynyas

affecting air-sea gas exchange and Arctic Ocean ecosystems, including human

populations?

How do transitions in sea ice conditions affect sea ice and ice-associated ecosystems and

carbon cycling on Arctic shelves and basins?

How does the transition to warmer climate affect the lateral and vertical distribution of

water masses in the Arctic Ocean and what is the potential impact on the ecosystems of

the continental shelves?

How do Arctic Ocean organisms and ecosystems respond to transitions in environmental

conditions including temperature, stratification, ice conditions, and pH?

How can changes in distribution and abundance of higher trophic level species and

increased human presence in the Arctic induce trophic cascades in the ecosystems?”


contains a number of ecosystem-related challenges to be addressed:

“Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice,

climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.

Changes taking place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate

system and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes).

Land resource utilisation and resource conflicts between urbanisation, food and energy

production and ecosystem services.

Responses of the marine ecosystem and the associated ecosystem services to natural

and anthropogenic changes.”

The AOSB: Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy (AOSB: MWG, 2011) identified as part of

their priority themes for 2011-2015 the following ecosystem-related topics:

Sea ice structure dynamics and the Arctic system – “study should include… biological

production and ecosystems”

Ecosystem responses to changing physical parameters in the Arctic – “understand the

vulnerability and resilience of the ecosystem to climate forcing”

The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science

Plan and Experimental Design (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) includes the following

questions:

“How do interfacial exchange rates, biology, and chemistry couple to regulate

ecosystems and the major elemental cycles in the high Arctic sea ice?

How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale

heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?”




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identified the following research questions:

“What are the critical dynamic processes and feedbacks driving variability and change in

the North Atlantic-Arctic climate system? And how will a changing Arctic cryosphere

influence ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby influencing biogeochemical

processes and ecosystem structure?

How will marine ecosystem structure and function respond to environmental change in

climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and human pressures?”


(Rintoul & al, 2011) has as one of its overarching scientific challenges, “The impacts of global

change on Southern Ocean ecosystems – The ability to predict changes in marine resources

and biodiversity, to assess ecosystem resilience, and determine feedbacks between food

webs and biogeochemical cycling depends on sustained, integrated observations of key

physical, chemical and biological parameters.”

One of the biggest unanswered questions identified by the Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost

in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere report (AMAP, 2011) was, “What

will happen to the Arctic Ocean and its ecosystems as freshwater is added by melting ice and

increased river flow?”

The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook report (Forbes, 2011)

identifies as two of the key knowledge gaps and research priorities:

“Ecological state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to better understand the vulnerability

of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate, rapid development, shipping and tourism in

the Arctic and identify prime ecosystem functions and their global, regional and local

significance

Social, economic, and institutional state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to improve the

understanding of societal risks of industrial activities in Arctic coastal regions and the

socio-economic impacts of ecosystem changes”

The ecosystem-related scientific question areas that are identified in the European Research

in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European Polar Board report (ESF

EPB, 2010) include:

“Climate impact on terrestrial ecosystems – measuring, understanding and predicting

complex interactions between species in response to environmental changes




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Ocean acidification – quantifying the effects of ocean acidification on the few species in

large numbers that the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems generally contain

Sea ice – understanding how a thinner and weaker ice cover responds to wind and

precipitation and how its reduction impacts the polar ecosystem as a whole”.


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will primary productivity change with

decreasing sea ice and snow cover?”, “What are the consequences of changing vegetation

patterns and resulting responses by wildlife to ecosystem evolution in the tundra and boreal

regions of the circumpolar north?” and “What will be the impacts of ocean acidification on

marine species and ecosystems?”

SPECIES/ORGANISMS AND FOOD WEB CHANGES

The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) includes as key research questions:

“What are the tolerance limits of key organisms and how do changes in environmental

conditions affect the composition and structure of Arctic food webs, and what are the

consequences for productivity and harvestable resources?

How can changes in distribution and abundance of higher trophic level species and

increased human presence in the Arctic induce trophic cascades in the ecosystems?

Understanding of multi-year and first-year sea ice ecosystems, as well as their role in the

cycling of materials in Arctic food webs.

How will changes in the functioning of food webs impact net heterotrophic/autotrophic

processes and will they shift the source/sink potential for atmospheric CO2 in the Arctic?

The European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European

Polar Board report (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies as scientific questions of importance to society

“measuring, understanding and predicting complex interactions between species in response

to environmental changes”, “effect of climate change on timing of reproduction at various

trophic levels, causing disruption of predator-prey relationships or patterns of competition

amongst species” and “quantifying the effects of ocean acidification on the few species in

large numbers that the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems generally contain“. The Southern

Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy (Rintoul & al,

2011) identifies as one of six overarching scientific challenges “The impacts of global change

on Southern Ocean ecosystems – The ability to predict changes in marine resources and

biodiversity, to assess ecosystem resilience, and determine feedbacks between food webs

and biogeochemical cycling depends on sustained, integrated observations of key physical,

chemical and biological parameters.”


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will species distributions and associated




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ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere?”, “What will be the impacts of

ocean acidification on marine species and ecosystems?”, “What new perspectives will be

revealed through genomic and microbial analyses?” and “How will Arctic change affect the

long-range transport and persistence of biota?”

SEA ICE CHANGES

The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) contains the following

science questions related to sea ice: “How can the calibration of proxy data from marine

sediments be improved through coupling with sea ice models and direct observations?”,

“What were the principal forcing mechanisms responsible for regional variations in sea ice

cover and biological productivity during past environmental transitions?”, “How do patterns

of sea ice reduction forced by elevated greenhouse gas concentrations differ from those

driven by changes in solar or oceanic forcing?” and “How do transitions in sea ice conditions

affect sea ice and ice-associated ecosystems and carbon cycling on Arctic shelves and

basins?”.

The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) includes

the sea ice-related challenge, “Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the

coupling between sea ice, climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the

ocean.”

The AOSB: Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy (AOSB: MWG, 2011) identified the priority

theme, “Sea ice structure dynamics and the Arctic system – study should include physical

processes such as the radiation balance, atmospheric transport of heat and water vapour,

air-ice-ocean exchanges and the circulation and overturning of the ocean, and extend from

biogeochemical processes, biological production and ecosystems to the living condition of

the local residents and the effects on and of human activities such as fishing, oil exploration,

transports and tourism”.

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) references the importance of the sea

ice-related science question, “What will be the nature of changes in sea-ice distribution and

mass balance in response to climate change and variability?” and includes specific

recommendations for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river

ice, ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).

In Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science Plan

and Experimental Design (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) a number of sea ice-related

scientific questions are, “What are the seasonally-varying energy sources, mixing processes,

and interfacial fluxes that affect the heat and momentum budgets of first-year sea ice?”,

”How does sea ice move and deform over its first year of existence?” and “How do interfacial




80

exchange rates, biology, and chemistry couple to regulate ecosystems and the major

elemental cycles in the high Arctic sea ice?”.

In The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy

(Rintoul & al, 2011) one of the six overarching scientific challenges is “The future of Antarctic

sea ice – A sustained observing system for Antarctic sea ice will rely heavily on remote

sensing from satellites and aircraft, as well as in situ observations for validation and

algorithm development.”

In World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges (WCRP, 2015) one of the

grand science challenges is, “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the

reduction of Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost, in which

components of the cryosphere play a central role, remain an important source of uncertainty

in projections of future climate change.”

The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook (Forbes, 2011) identifies

one of the knowledge gaps and research priorities to be, “Physical state of the circum-Arctic

coast – need to improve understanding of the impacts of a changing sea-ice regime and

wave climate on coastal stability, including issues such as sediment entrainment and export

by sea ice and the incidence of ice ride-up and pile-up events onshore, and the role of river-

ocean interaction and the filtering/buffering role of deltas on carbon and nutrient delivery”.


Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) the sea ice-related scientific question area is, “Sea ice –

understanding how a thinner and weaker ice cover responds to wind and precipitation and

how its reduction impacts the polar ecosystem as a whole”.

In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) sea ice is

identified as one of the research topics requiring immediate attention, “Sea Ice – ensured

future sea ice thickness observation capabilities; improved estimation of snow thickness over

sea ice; inter-comparison to establish the extent to which various sea ice mass balance

measurements agree; improved polynyas, thin and marginal ice processes and models, and

advanced EO-based products on ocean drift/deformation/directional ice strength.”


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What surprises are hidden within and beneath

the ice?”, “What will we learn about the Arctic’s past from sedimentary archives accessed

through lake and ocean drilling and proxies contained in ice cores?” and “Which factors are

most important in driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the

active layer over permafrost?”




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RIVER/LAKE ICE CHANGES

The ESA – Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015)

includes the challenge, “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects on the

climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the

terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.”

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) includes specific recommendations

for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river ice, ice sheets,

glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).

Research topics identified as requiring immediate attention in ESA-CLIC Earth Observation

and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) include, “Arctic hydrology – filling

knowledge gaps concerning the Arctic water cycle; improved observation of Arctic lakes and

rivers, including a long-term and sustainable observational network of lake/lake ice

monitoring sites, retrieval of lake-relevant geophysical parameters, river fluxes and river ice

and river runoff and the impact of the freshwater balance; improved pan-Arctic

representation of permafrost and high-latitude land surface, including wetlands, in climate

models.”


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What will we learn about the Arctic’s past from

sedimentary archives accessed through lake and ocean drilling and proxies contained in ice

cores?” and “What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and

how will its impact vary regionally?”

SNOW CHANGES

The ESA – Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015)

includes the challenge, “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects on the

climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the

terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.”





areas of strategic foci includes, “Freshwater budget closure at high latitudes (snow and

permafrost impact on polar hydrological cycle)”.


Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) the snow-related scientific question area is, “Maritime transport




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in the polar regions – technological R&D on vessels operating in polar regions, impacts of

local pollution on marine life and the reflectivity (albedo) of snow and ice surfaces, and

impacts of shipping on the ice surface, including the exposure of larger areas of open water

and reduction of albedo”.

The ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities report (Baseman & al, 2015)

identifies snow as one of the research topics requiring immediate attention, “Sea Ice –

ensured future sea ice thickness observation capabilities; improved estimation of snow

thickness over sea ice; inter-comparison to establish the extent to which various sea ice mass

balance measurements agree; improved polynyas, thin and marginal ice processes and

models, and advanced EO-based products on ocean drift/deformation/directional ice

strength” and “Terrestrial snow – robust method for providing information on global

terrestrial snow mass and snow water equivalent (SWE); a ‘climate data record’ of the global

snow surface albedo; advanced and robust methodologies to retrieve key parameters of

snow, such as density, grain size and snow impurities; new characterizations of the spectral

characteristics of Arctic land surfaces for monitoring of vegetation changes”.


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “Which factors are most important in driving

seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over permafrost?”

ICE SHEET/GLACIER/ICE CAP CHANGES

In Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014) key

research questions to be addressed include, “Are there thresholds in atmospheric CO2

concentrations beyond which ice sheets collapse and the seas rise dramatically?” and “How

do effects at the base of the ice sheet influence its flow, form and response to warming?”

In Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) a challenge

concerning improved understanding and quantification of information related to ice sheets

and glaciers is, “Mass balance of grounded ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers, their relative

contributions to global sea-level change, their current stability and their sensitivity to climate

change.”

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) references the importance of ice

sheet and glacier-related science questions, “What is the contribution of glaciers, ice caps

and ice sheets to changes in the global sea level on decadal-to-century time scales?”


(Rintoul & al, 2011) describes as one of the overarching scientific challenges in the Southern

Ocean, “The role of the ocean in the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet and its contribution to

sea-level rise”.




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Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies the ice sheet and glacier-related scientific question

area as, “Glaciers and ice sheets – better understanding of how rapidly ice sheets and

glaciers can change, including the importance of melt water for acceleration of ice

movement”.

In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) research

topics identified as requiring immediate attention include, “The Greenland ice sheet mass

balance – retrievals of accumulation rates over the ice sheets; better estimation of (snow)

penetration depth; continuity of high-resolution radar altimetry; improved integration

between modelling and observations for future mass balance estimates; better use of EO-

based products in ice sheet models; detection/observation of supraglacial melt ponds and

streams”.


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What can “break or brake” glaciers and ice

sheets?”, “How is the large-scale opening of the Arctic shelves changing interactions among

ice, ocean, atmosphere, ecology, and society?” and “Which factors are most important in

driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over

permafrost?”

PERMAFROST CHANGES

In Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) a challenge

concerning improved understanding and quantification of information related to permafrost

is, “Changes taking place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate

system and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes)”.





areas of strategic foci includes, “Freshwater budget closure at high latitudes (snow and

permafrost impact on polar hydrological cycle)” and “Circumpolar changes in permafrost and

terrestrial biosphere (consequences for carbon and hydrological cycles)”.




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Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies the permafrost-related scientific question area as,

“Permafrost on land and under water – obtaining more reliable projections of how climate

variability will affect the permafrost and vice-versa through measurements of temperature,

ice content of permafrost, and of annual thaw depths in different parts of the polar regions”.

In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) research

topics identified as requiring immediate attention include, “Arctic hydrology – filling

knowledge gaps concerning the Arctic water cycle; improved observation of Arctic lakes and

rivers, including a long-term and sustainable observational network of lake/lake ice

monitoring sites, retrieval of lake-relevant geophysical parameters, river fluxes and river ice

and river runoff and the impact of the freshwater balance; improved pan-Arctic

representation of permafrost and high-latitude land surface, including wetlands, in climate

models.”


Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will the ecosystem and built infrastructure

respond to widespread degradation of permafrost?” and “Which factors are most important

in driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over

permafrost?”




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APPENDIX 2: REFERENCES TO INFORMATION PARAMETER REQUIREMENTS

The following sections identify where specific references to information parameter

requirements were identified in the literature review.

ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH

In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) references to information requirements

include, “smaller-scale properties, such as sea ice texture, brine content, or frost flowers, are

important for understanding… the role of sea ice in chemical interactions with the

atmosphere” and ”understanding and modelling the response of glaciers to atmospheric

forcing requires data on glacier mass balance, glacier/atmosphere interaction, and ice

dynamics”.

In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic

Aperture Radar (Falkingham, Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice –

Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar, 2014) references to information requirements

include, “measurements of the characteristics of snow on sea ice, including snow thickness

and its distribution, fractional snow coverage, snow density, and snow conductivity would be

very useful in models”, “leads and polynyas dramatically affect the local albedo and the heat,

moisture, salt and other chemical fluxes, as well as the momentum transfer, between the

ocean and atmosphere”, “leads can enhance the transfer of mercury and ozone from the

atmosphere to the surface through boundary layer effects”, “knowing the thickness of lake

ice is important for… estimating the heat and moisture exchanges with the atmosphere”.

In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references to

information requirements include, “key observing need[s]… include aerosol composition and

amount, cloud optical depth, cloud supercooled liquid water path, absorbed shortwave

radiation, and the vertical structure of clouds, temperature, and humidity”.

CLIMATE RESEARCH


include, “Studies of glacier mass balance and dynamics are… important for climate research”


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,

“together with concentration, thickness [of sea ice] is needed to compute the ice volume…

an important indicator of changing climate”, “ice concentration is probably the single most

important variable for climate modeling… because it largely determines the surface heat

fluxes to and from the atmosphere”, “for climate modeling… a complete ice thickness

distribution across the model domain is needed”, “the drift of sea ice… is an essential

component in the calculation of ice volume fluxes… important for climate change research




86

(ice mass balance)”, “sea ice drift and deformation data are crucial for climate model…

optimization and validation", “increased atmospheric boundary layer instability and low-

level cloud formation associated with leads and polynyas have significant wide-ranging

impacts on… climate”, “the length of the [sea ice] melt and freeze seasons is an important

parameter to monitor for climate change”, “landfast (fast) sea ice distribution is thought to

be a sensitive indicator of climate variability and change, especially in Antarctica” and “Our

ability to forecast northern… climate… depends on knowledge of how the [lake] ice cover

affects energy and water budgets”.


information requirements include, “Sea-ice volume (including ice thickness and

concentration) and snow cover are two of the main climate applications” and “near-surface

wind speeds and directions have been used in the Southern Ocean to initialize weather…

models”.

In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to

information requirements include, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating to

research on… climate change”.

WEATHER RESEARCH



“increased atmospheric boundary layer instability and low-level cloud formation associated

with leads and polynyas have significant wide-ranging impacts on weather” and “ability to

forecast northern weather… depends on knowledge of how the [lake] ice cover affects

energy and water budgets”.


information requirements include, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating to

research on… meteorology”.

LAND SURFACE AND USE CHANGE INFORMATION

In The Role of Land-Cover Change in the High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the

Global Carbon Cycle: Part 2 (McGuire, 2003) references to information requirements include,

“satellite data sets available for comparison include… NDVI, LAI, and FAPAR derived from

AVHRR data”.

The LCLUC Interactions with Arctic Hydrology: Links to Carbon Cycle report (McDonald & al,

2008) contains the references to information requirements, “Satellites can measure land




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surface processes and environmental factors that control C fluxes – Lake/wetland extent,

Inundation / soil moisture, NDVI, River stage”

OCEAN STATE AND COASTAL ZONE CHANGE INFORMATION



“landfast ice plays an important role in polynya formation and thus in bottom water

production”, “icebergs are an important factor in the transport of freshwater and nutrients

and play a key… role in the biology of the polar seas” and “iceberg mass is… the key to

estimating mass loss from the ice sheets and freshwater input into the oceans”.

The Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs report (Pope & al, 2015)

contains the references to information requirements, “monitoring changes in sea-ice extent

and volume are particularly important… to the multi-faceted relationship of sea ice and the

freshwater balance, albedo, oceanic CO2 flux, and biological activity in the Southern Ocean”,

“Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an important physical parameter for… ocean dynamics,

biological activity in the upper ocean, air-ocean exchange, and ice-ocean exchange”, ”sea

level or sea-surface height… is a parameter related to ocean water density (i.e., salinity,

temperature), local fluxes, and variable gravity”, “in addition to clouds, fluxes, and aerosols,

large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic plays an important role in understanding

trends / changes in… ocean state” and “Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) observations can play an

important role in understanding the upper ocean”.

The Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 report (WMO, 2010) contains the

reference to information requirements, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating

to research on… oceanography”.

In Norwegian policies in ICZM and requirements for data and methods, adapting to climate

change (Klingsheim, 2011) references to information requirements include, “Coastal data /

fisheries. Including fairways and harbours, anchorage, routes for underwater cables and

pipelines, important areas for fisheries, aquaculture, and sea traffic data”.

In Geographic Information Systems help manage coastal areas (Rodríguez & al, 2010)

references to information requirements include, “data on factors including sea swell,

climate, structural conditions and the slope of the coast… data on wind transport, swell,

sediments and vegetation in the dunes”.




88

ECOSYSTEM CHANGE INFORMATION

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the reference to information

requirements, “observations of biological and chemical constituents [of sea ice] are

important for understanding the ecosystems associated with sea ice”


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “snow

on ice… is a critical component in the ecology of certain ice-dependent species”, “breakout

and melting of fast ice has a significant impact on freshwater and nutrient supply for

generating phytoplankton blooms”, “ice on inland water bodies can have major

socioeconomic impacts due to disruption of… wildlife habitat” and “Knowing the thickness of

lake ice is important for… understanding eco-system impacts”.

SPECIES/ORGANISMS AND FOOD WEB CHANGE INFORMATION


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “snow

cover [on ice] affects the availability and spectral characteristics of light for primary

biological production both within and under the sea ice cover” and “changes in patterns of

sea-ice convergence and divergence may become an important factor for wildlife in the

Arctic. As the Arctic Ocean becomes predominantly FYI, which is rougher than MYI, there

may be an increase in the available habitat for seals and polar bears, aiding their survival”.

SEA ICE CHANGE INFORMATION


include, “Basin-scale observations of sea ice concentration/extent, thickness distribution,

motion, melt, albedo, and temperature are required to understand the large-scale dynamic

and thermodynamic evolution of sea ice cover seasonally and from year to year”.

The Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic

Aperture Radar report (Falkingham, 2014) includes the references to information

requirements, “ice drift velocity is affected by the roughness of the top and bottom ice

surfaces… [which] is important for modeling ice motion” and “high-precision ice drift data

are required for process studies related to sea ice rheology (the relationship between ice

stress and deformation)”.

In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references

to information requirements include, “recommendations for in situ data for improved sea-

ice products are having access to better knowledge of: 1) Density distribution of snow and

ice for conversion of freeboard (from satellite altimetry) into thickness, 2) Accuracy of snow

depth, 3) Accuracy and validation of freeboard, and 4) Areas of flooding at the snow-ice




89

interface”, “a need for more data from locations of sea-ice polynyas and leads was

expressed”, “in addition to clouds, fluxes, and aerosols, large-scale atmospheric circulation in

the Antarctic plays an important role in understanding trends / changes in sea ice” and

“near-surface wind speeds and directions have been used in the Southern Ocean to

initialize… sea ice drift models”.

RIVER/LAKE ICE CHANGE INFORMATION

In User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand (Malnes & al, 2015)

references to river/lake ice information requirements include, “Ice extent and ice

concentration, Snow covered area on lake ice, First and last day of ice cover, River ice jam,

flood inundation area, Lake surface temperature, Snow depth on lake ice”.

The Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic

Aperture Radar report (Falkingham, 2014) contains the reference to information

requirements, “knowing the thickness of lake ice is important for… predicting ice melt and

break-up”.

In Cool research projects probe river ice life cycle (Cairney, 2015) references to information

requirements include, “Research… studies the formation and evolution of frazil ice—the

smallest ice crystals that form when river water begins to freeze… trying to understand,

model, and predict the behaviour of rivers and ice when ice covering rivers begins to break

up, potentially causing floods or damage to homes and public infrastructure”

The River ice mapping and monitoring using SAR satellites report (Van der Sanden, 2012)

contains the references to information requirements, “Types of information derived from

radar images that feed into the development of the hydraulic model include ice type

distribution, ice jam locations, ice cover break-up sequence, extent/location/duration of

break-up flooding”.

SNOW CHANGE INFORMATION


references to snow information requirements include, “Snow cover fraction, Snow extent,

Snow water equivalent, Melting snow area, Snow surface wetness, Spectral surface albedo,

snow surface temperature”.


include, “as much as 75 percent of water supplies in the western United States come from

snowmelt”.





90

ICE SHEET/GLACIER CHANGE INFORMATION


references to glacier information requirements include, “Glacier outlines, Snow/ice area on

glaciers, Glacier ice velocity, Glacier lakes”.



“[icebergs] are important in the study of the evolution and break-up of floating ice sheets

and ice shelves”.

PERMAFROST CHANGE INFORMATION


contains the reference to information requirements, “surface temperatures from thermal

infrared sensors can be used to drive permafrost models”.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT INFORMATION


information requirements include, “environmental consultants use ice data, analyses and

expert advice for environmental impact assessments”.

In Environmental Impact Assessment in the Ice-Filled Waters, Do We Have the Necessary

Information? (Matishov, Dzhenyuk, & Dahle, n.d.) references to information requirements

include, “To fulfill biological chapters of environmental impact assessment… leading

ecological factors are variability of ice edge in the off-sea area and phases of ice processes in

the coastal areas”.

The Australian guidelines for preparation of IEEs and CEEs (Australian Antarctic Division,

2015) contains the references to information requirements, “A description of the

environment in which the activity is to be performed… should include: the physical

characteristics (e.g. topography, bathymetry, geology, geomorphology, soils, hydrology,

meteorology, and ice conditions)… inventories of plant and animal species… sea ice cycles,

ecosystem dynamics, phytoplankton production and decomposition… current and proposed

land use”.

Methodologies for Remote Sensing of the Environmental Impacts of Industrial Activity in the

Arctic and Sub-Arctic (Rees & Rigina, 2003) notes that mining and other resource

development activities are have significant impacts on the environment in the Arctic and

Sub-Arctic. Remote sensing methods, and particularly space-based earth observation are

well established as an effective tool for monitoring impacts including landscape condition

and change and oil spill detection, for example. Multiple platforms and sensors are being






91

used including visible, near-infrared, thermal infrared, passive and active microwave with the

majority of applications using visible-infrared multispectral and some positive results using

microwave.

ENGINEERING DESIGN INFORMATION

In Development Drilling and Production Platforms (Winkler & Strømme, 2014) references to

information requirements include, “Water depth is one of the basic parameters in the choice

of platform type”, “Soil properties are one of the most important drivers for determination

of platform configuration”, “wave erosion … has to be evaluated and mitigation means

considered” and “Seismic acceleration … values are … appropriate for early front-end

planning”.

In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:

Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information

requirements include, “Platform design. Statistical characterization of governing ice features

that produce design-level loads (thickness, frequency, drift speed)”, “Pipelines. Ice gouging

rates as a function of water depth and any sheltering bathymetry, statistical characterization

of ice keel depth and frequency of occurrence”, “the general ice drift behavior for a region is

required for engineering and planning activities”, “relating ice strength to ice temperature

and salinity is an important relationship that is used … to calculate ice loads”, “ice islands and

ice island fragments… are important design considerations for permanent structures” and

”the borehole indenter system measur[es] a vertical strength profile through the full ice

thickness … useful for calculating forces on structures (particularly crushing against a vertical

face) and for verifying the integrity (bearing capacity) of floating ice”.

The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information

requirements, “it has become customary to consider the impact of climate warming in

engineering design, especially for large structures or those where the consequences of

failure are significant (e.g., mine tailing containment facilities, oil and gas pipelines)”.


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “for

offshore construction, the drift and thickness of ice are key parameters in the calculation of

ice loading”.

OPERATIONS PLANNING INFORMATION



requirements include, “Exploration drilling. Ice edge location, forecasts of ice edge

movement, concentration and ice types if operating in ice, meteorological and




92

oceanographic conditions and forecasts”, “Logistics. Routine operations, ice concentration,

type, ice charts, forecasts, ice pressure”, “Describing the ice by type, thickness, and floe size

is important for Arctic operations”, “When characterizing ridges, the most commonly

captured parameters include the maximum depth of the ice below the surface (keel draft),

the height it protrudes above the surrounding level ice (sail height), and the length of the

ridge”, “Grounded rubble features that remain stationary for long periods of time will

consolidate into large ice masses [that] have the potential to refloat, while still intact, and

present challenges from an ice management or ice loading perspective”, “multi-year ridges

and hummocks … often represent ‘unmanageable ice’, which typically must be avoided by

suspending operations and moving off station”, “ice observers’ logs can be used to extract

ice thickness, sail height data, ridging intensity, and the occurrence of pressured ice”,

“acoustic remote sensing from submerged platforms … has been … useful in providing

information on sea ice thickness and its variations”, “acoustic doppler current profiler

(ADCP), deployed either nearby (shallow water) or on the same mooring (deep water), is

paired with the IPS [ice-profiling sonar to] measure the ice drift at high temporal resolution

(sub-hourly)”, “multibeam sonar has also been successfully used to survey the underwater

profiles of icebergs” and “Direct measurement of ice thickness can be obtained by drilling a

hole through the ice … and utilizing a tape with a deployable anchor to measure the distance

from the bottom of the hole to the surface … [as well as] information on snow thickness, ice

elevation, draft, thickness, and void spaces in deformed ice”.


requirements, “Knowledge of [river and lake] ice thickness is important for the

determination of trafficability on lakes and rivers in winter, and for the planning of winter ice

roads in the North”.



“knowledge of ice thickness is needed to plan ship and offshore operations in areas affected

by ice”.

ROUTE PLANNING INFORMATION

The ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:

Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the reference

to information requirements, “Ice and iceberg charts serve tactical (day-to-day) or strategic

(longer-term) planning and operational purposes”.






93

“knowing the thickness of lake ice is important for estimating its load-bearing capacity for

on-ice transportation”.


information requirements include, “the commercial shipping industry uses [sea] ice

information for strategic and tactical vessel passage planning”.

SAFE NAVIGATION AND OPERATIONS INFORMATION



requirements include, “real-time ice monitoring and forecasting of short-term ice conditions

requires observing: location and extent, ice drift (actual and forecast), ice concentrations

(total and partial), ice thickness and pack ice pressure”, “understanding the ice

concentration, thickness, and pack ice pressure moving toward the installation identifies

where ice management is needed and the acceptable managed floe size”, “aerial

surveillance through visual observation by qualified personnel enables collection of local ice

cover information near the operational area in near real time”, “cameras mounted or used

from aircraft can provide valuable qualitative information about sea ice… such as

approximate size, location, and quantity of multi-year ice floes and ridging, stages of

development, descriptions of cracks, leads, polynyas, and location of the ice edge”,

“electromagnetic induction (EMI) sounding devices [are used for] the measurement of sea

ice thickness”, “LIDAR mounted to an aircraft [is used] to create swath maps of sea ice

freeboard and surface elevations”, “[ship-based] marine radars are used … [for] high-

resolution imaging of ice, including small, slow-moving features”, “shore-Based Marine

Radar … systems … produce still images and animations for observation of ice movement,

deformation, breakout events, and stability of fast ice” and “ice drift monitoring and

forecasting are key components of an ice management system, because it is crucial to know

where the ice is coming from and to estimate where it is going in order to efficiently deploy

ice management resources”.


requirements, “transportation is affected by changes in snow cover, fresh-water and sea ice

extent and thickness, and the degradation of permafrost”, “precise knowledge of the ice

edge location and ice age/type (or stage of development)…[is] required for safe navigation

and operational support in ice-covered waters” and “other parameters such as sea ice

thickness, snow cover, meltponds, leads, and ridges, and their distributions… are needed for

navigating through the ice with icebreakers, and under the ice with submarines”.


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “the




94

separation of FYI [first year ice] and MYI [multi-year ice] is important for navigation”,

“Another key distinction is between pack ice and landfast (fast) ice. While pack ice is, by

definition, in constant motion under the influence of wind, ocean currents and internal ice

stresses, fast ice forms a stationary cover along the coastal margins of both the Arctic and

Antarctic”, “snow on ice… can impact navigation of ice-capable vessels due to friction”, “ice

drift is important to identify areas of convergence and divergence - both situations that are

of primary concern for navigation”, “velocity convergence leading to deformation of the ice

can dramatically and rapidly increase its thickness… [which] is of great importance to

navigation and offshore activities”, “sustained ridge building can create “stamukhi” or

grounded ice ridges… particularly hazardous to offshore and coastal structures”, “for

navigation in ice-covered waters, floe size is an important variable”, “leads and polynyas are

important for marine transportation – both surface and submarine – as well as for on-ice

travel”, “better understand[ing of] the behaviour of icebergs, particularly their drift and

deterioration… is critical to reduce the risk of operating in areas frequented by icebergs”,

“iceberg draft is needed to determine if it can ground in a particular area… essential for

seabed structures such as pipelines and production manifolds”, “small icebergs, bergy bits

and growlers… are the most hazardous forms of floating glacier ice”, “ice on inland water

bodies can have major socioeconomic impacts due to disruption of ship transportation,

fishing activities” and “knowledge of river ice is needed to… build and maintain… ice-roads”.


contains the reference to information requirements, “sea level or sea-surface height… is

useful for logistical operations in some regions (e.g., Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea)”.


information requirements include, “the Canadian Coast Guard uses weather and [sea] ice

information for marine safety, icebreaking operations and efficient marine transportation”,

“fishing fleets obtain enroute and on-site [sea] ice conditions for ice-encumbered areas”,

“the offshore oil and gas companies use iceberg and sea ice information for exploration and

production, both on-site and in transit”, “the marine construction industry uses site-specific

current and historical [sea ice] data for offshore and onshore projects, such as bridges and

port facilities” and “the tourism industry gets technical and general [sea ice] information for

the operation of cruise ships and the enjoyment of passengers”.

RISK MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

In Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North1 (Emmerson & al, 2012) references

to information requirements include, “Access to accurate and up-to-date weather/ice

1 Although there is no universally accepted definition of “high north”, it appears to have been used initially in

Norway, and seems to be generally considered synonymous with the Arctic (see




95

information during the voyage”, “many operators employ data from ships and satellites to

provide a real-time picture of sea ice movements” and “risks will be exacerbated by a

number of secondary factors, which include: poor maps, poor hydrographic and

meteorological data and poor satellite navigation information”.


Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the

references to information requirements, “single pass, wideband, dual frequency (X-band and

P-band) interferometric airborne radar mapping [is used to make] sea ice thickness

measurements [that] include characterization of first-year sea ice from multi-year sea ice, as

well as the identification of cracking ice networks and ice ridges, [which] provide actionable

intelligence for assessing the risk of oncoming ice conditions and enabling operators to

mitigate high-risk ice floes from fixed locations in the Arctic”.


requirements, “Some countries rely on snowmelt forecasting to predict floods and snowmelt

runoff and to provide flood alerts”, “estimating the risk of sea-ice bottom gouging is

necessary for determining safe burial depth for marine cables and pipelines”, “observation of

mechanical snow properties… including grain size, grain shape, stratigraphic structure,

hardness, liquid water content, strength and stability…are required for evaluation of

avalanche hazards” and “river-ice duration and break-up exerts significant control on the

timing and magnitude of extreme hydrologic events such as low flows and floods”.

In Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community

White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) references to information requirements include, “natural

hazard assessments and risk managements count on timely and accurate products

(snowmelt) for flood forecasting and avalanche warnings”.

The Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 report (WMO, 2010) contains the

reference to information requirements, “the marine insurance industry uses [sea] ice

information for risk assessment for offshore operations affected by ice”.

The goal of the IMO Polar Code (IMO, 2015a), which will come into effect on January 1, 2017,

is “to provide for safe ship operation and the protection of the polar environment by

addressing risks present in polar waters”. The Polar Code requires the use of “systems, tools

or analysis that evaluate the risks posed by the anticipated ice conditions to the ship, taking

http://www.geopoliticsnorth.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1:an-international-research-project&catid=44&showall=&limitstart=1)




96

into account factors such as its ice class, seasonal changing of ice strength, icebreaker

support, ice type, thickness and concentration.”

EMERGENCY RESPONSE INFORMATION



requirements include, “Oil spill response. Statistical description of ice concentration, drift

characteristics, timing of freeze-up, transition to winter conditions, presence of leads and

polynyas, operational conditions.”

In Guidelines for Offshore Oil Spill Response Plans (API, 2013) references to information

requirements include, “Provide brief summary of available temperature (air and water),

wind, wave, and surface current information for the geographic response area. Include

tables with associated information such as monthly or seasonal maximum, minimum, mean

values for wind and current speeds, temperatures, wave heights, precipitation, etc. and

average wind and current directions.”

In Environmental Impacts of Arctic Oil Spills and Arctic Spill Response Technologies (Word,

2014) references to information requirements include, “Estimating the fate and effect of oil

from various spill scenarios can be accomplished by use of spill trajectory models… requires

historical weather data, ocean current data, and identification of likely oil types and their

physical and chemical characteristics. In the Arctic, trajectory modelling can be severely

affected by sea ice”.

SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS INFORMATION


Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the

references to information requirements, “Escape, evacuation, and rescue. Statistical

description of ice concentration, drift characteristics, ice topography, rubble accumulation

tendencies (also noting difference between exploration systems and platform designs)”.

WEATHER FORECASTING INFORMATION

In Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months (WMO, 2015-7)

references to information requirements include, “a body of evidence that suggests that

ocean surface temperature in the extra-tropical Gulf Stream region could affect large-scale

atmospheric circulation”, “both the cool skin (a very thin layer near the surface less than

1mm thick) and the diurnal warm layer (up to a few meters deep) have to be taken into

account”, “[ocean] salinity profile”, “the surface wind stress aligned with the surface

currents”, “The surface gravity waves on the interface between the atmosphere and ocean

are being increasingly recognised as critically important”, “The roughness of the surface




97

plays a role in air-sea transfer of momentum, gasses, sea-spray aerosols, bubbles, etc.”,

“high and low wind speeds over the ocean”, “snow depth, snow water equivalent, surface

temperature, density, snow grain size and albedo”, “albedo of sea ice”, “sea ice surface

temperature”, “ice thickness distribution”, “sea ice models need to represent the properties

of both snow and meltponds [on sea ice]”, “sea ice velocity gradients”, “deformations of the

sea ice cover”, “[sea] ice mass balance” and “the sails and keels of pressure ridges are

important topographic features”.

In High Arctic Weather Stations (Stossel, 2015) the information types measured by the

stations include, “radiosonde instrument that transmits temperature, pressure and humidity

information through a cross-section of the lower 30 km of atmosphere; the radiosonde is

electronically tracked to determine wind velocity and direction as the instrument rises aloft”,

“solar and terrestrial radiation levels, are recorded”, “Ice thickness, freeze-up/break-up data

and snow depth measurements are taken biweekly nearly year-round” and “Other scientific

activities include seismic and magnetic recordings, air quality measurements and aerosol

monitoring”.


requirements, “Cryospheric variables such as solid precipitation, snow cover, snow water

equivalent, snowstorms, icing, and river-, lake-, soil-, and sea-ice freeze-up and breakup

times are components of weather forecasting in cold climate regions.”, “snow depth is used

by atmospheric models to estimate surface roughness”, “observation of snow temperature is

also important for determination of energy budgets and related processes such as

snowmelt”, “major factors are the high albedo of snow and ice surfaces, the latent heat

associated with the phase changes between ice and liquid water, the insulating effects of

snow cover [and] the delaying effects of seasonal snow and ice cover on annual energy and

water cycles, the fresh water stored in ice sheets and glaciers, and the greenhouse gases

locked up in permafrost” and “recent investigations have shown the importance of lake ice

cover… for boreal climate modelling, and for improving numerical weather prediction”.

In Observational Aspects of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (Fairall & al, 2013) references

to information requirements include, “winds, air-sea momentum flux, and surface wave

spectra”, “sea ice forecasting”, “direct flux (turbulent, radiative, precipitation)

measurements, clouds, aerosols, and atmospheric/oceanic chemistry”, “ice cover, ice

thickness, snow depth on ice, albedo, [snow] crystal structure”, “sea ice deformation over

large regions”, “ice deformation and redistribution during ridging”, “Surface temperature,

humidity, clouds and winds are all important”, “summer sea ice extent” and “ozone

profiles”.

The Workshop Report on Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate and Related Impacts (NOAA, 2014)

contains the information requirements related to weather forecasting, “Sea ice forecasts are




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critically important for NOAA services and stakeholders”, “Improved initialized ice concentra-

tion data for RAP weather forecasts”, “Incorporate more cloud and moisture observations to

improve model initializations”, “better representation of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in sea ice

models; cloud microphysics” and “upper ocean and ice thickness information for ice freeze

forecasts, ice thickness for summer forecasts”, “Improve snow depth, snow cover, ice cover,

and ice thickness analysis for operational model initialization or assimilation” and “key

features such as leads, melt ponds and locations of marginal ice zones”.



requirements include, “surface velocity program beacons … drift with the ice, providing a

record of vectors of the ice motion … [enabling] study of relative movement of the ice and

rotation … [and] these data are assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction models”.


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “ice

concentration is probably the single most important variable for… NWP because it largely

determines the surface heat fluxes to and from the atmosphere”, “for… NWP, a complete ice

thickness distribution across the model domain is needed”, “sea ice drift and deformation

data are crucial for… NWP optimization and validation”, “determining the concentration and

types of ice is most important on very large lakes, Great Lakes which… [have] a strong

influence on regional weather and climate”.


information requirements include, “assimilation of global positioning system (GPS) radio

occultation (RO) soundings into numerical weather prediction models can have a substantial

positive impact on weather analyses and forecasts across the Southern Hemisphere”.

The Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community

White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) contains the references to information requirements, “snow

parameters are required for developing, initializing and validating the corresponding models,

improving regional weather forecasting and, e.g., warnings of severe storms”, “key variables

in the NWP snow analysis are snow extent and snow water equivalent”.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INFORMATION


requirements, “sea level rise is a major concern for heavily populated coastal areas and is

critical for a number of small island nations … the contribution [of glaciers] to current global

sea level rise may be much larger than that from the ice sheets” and “wave-induced

undercutting of the permafrost leads to collapse of coastal bluffs and subsequent erosion by




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the action of waves and currents… reduction of the sea ice cover, and especially of the fast

ice, [allows] waves to grow and become more destructive as they approach the coast”.

In Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011

Update, Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan

for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update)”

(WMO, 2011-3) references to information requirements include, “GCOS recommends the

following products in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains for priority action by

the space agencies” (see Tables 2, 3 and 4).

Table 24: Overview of Products – Atmosphere

Essential Climate Variables Global Products Requiring Satellite Observations

Surface Wind Speed and Direction Surface wind retrievals

Precipitation Estimates of liquid and solid precipitation, derived from specific instruments and provided by composite products

Temperature Upper-air temperature retrievals

Temperature of deep atmospheric layers

Upper-air Wind Speed and Direction

Upper-air wind retrievals

Water Vapour Total column water vapour

Tropospheric and lower-stratospheric profiles of water vapour

Upper tropospheric humidity

Cloud Properties Cloud amount, top pressure and temperature, optical depth, water path and effective particle radius

Earth Radiation Budget Earth radiation budget (top-of-atmosphere and surface)

Total and spectrally-resolved solar irradiance

Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other GHGs

Retrievals of greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and CH4, of sufficient quality to estimate regional sources and sinks

Ozone Total column ozone

Tropospheric ozone

Ozone profiles from upper troposphere to mesosphere

Aerosol Properties Aerosol optical depth

Aerosol single scattering albedo

Aerosol layer height

Aerosol extinction profiles from the troposphere to at least 35km

Precursors supporting the Ozone and Aerosol ECVs

Retrievals of precursors for aerosols and ozone such as NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO




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Table 25: Overview of Products – Oceans

Essential Climate Variables Global Products requiring Satellite Observations

Temperature Integrated sea-surface temperature analyses based on satellite and in situ data records

Sea-surface Salinity Datasets for research on identification of changes in sea-surface salinity

Sea Level Sea-level global mean and regional variability

Sea State Wave height, supported by other measures of sea state (wave direction, wavelength, time period)

Sea Ice Sea-ice concentration/extent/edge, supported by sea-ice thickness and sea-ice drift

Ocean Colour Ocean colour radiometry – water leaving radiance

Oceanic chlorophyll-a concentration, derived from ocean colour radiometry

Table 26: Overview of Products – Terrestrial

Essential Climate Variables Global Products requiring Satellite Observations

Lakes Lake levels and areas of lakes in the Global Terrestrial Network for Lakes (GTN-L)

Snow Cover Snow areal extent, supplemented by snow water equivalent

Glaciers and Ice Caps 2D vector outlines of glaciers and ice caps (delineating glacier area), supplemented by digital elevation models for drainage divides and topographic parameters

Ice Sheets Ice-sheet elevation changes, supplemented by fields of ice velocity and ice-mass change

Albedo Reflectance anisotropy (BRDF), black-sky and white-sky albedo

Land Cover Moderate-resolution maps of land-cover type

High-resolution maps of land-cover type, for the detection of land-cover change

FAPAR Maps of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation

LAI Maps of Leaf Area Index

Biomass Regional and global above-ground forest biomass

Fire Disturbance Maps of burnt area, supplemented by active-fire maps and fire-radiative power

Soil Moisture Research towards global near-surface soil-moisture map (up to 10cm soil depth)

Land-surface Temperature Land-surface temperature records to support generation of land ECVs




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According to The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for

Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (WMO, 2003), in 2003 the Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS) program, working with the other global observing systems2 and on behalf of

its Sponsors3, established a list of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) (i.e. physical,

chemical, or biological variables or a group of linked variables that are required to support

the work of the UNFCCC and that are technically and economically feasible for systematic

observation), as indicated in Table 5.

Table 27: Essential Climate Variables

Domain Essential Climate Variables

Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice)

Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.

Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.

Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases

4, Aerosol properties.

Oceanic

Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure.

Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton.

Terrestrial5

River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance.


Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “the

separation of FYI [first year ice] and MYI [multi-year ice] is important for… monitoring the

impacts of climate change”.

2 The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), the World

Weather Watch (WWW) with its Global Observing System (GOS) and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). 3 World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

(UNESCO) and its Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the International Council for Science (ICSU). 4 Including nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). 5 Includes runoff (m

3 s

-1), ground water extraction rates (m

3 yr

-1) and location, snow cover extent (km

2) and

duration, snow depth (cm), glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2

yr-1

), glacier length (m), ice sheet mass balance (kg m

-2 yr

-1) and extent (km2), permafrost extent (km

2), temperature profiles and active layer

thickness, above ground biomass (t/ha), burnt area (ha), date and location of active fire, burn efficiency (%vegetation burned/unit area).




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The Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community

White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) contains the reference to information requirements,

“reliable information is needed on past and future variations in snow cover to assist policy

and decision makers in their efforts to define impact and adaptation activities”.




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APPENDIX 3: USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS

The following sections identify where user requirements that do not relate to specific

science or operations domains were identified in the literature review.

GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS

The World Meteorological Organization's Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) is an international

mechanism for supporting all key cryospheric in-situ and remote sensing observations. GCW

provides authoritative, clear, and useable data, information, and analyses on the past,

current and future state of the cryosphere. GCW is formulating observational requirements

drawing from various sets of existing user requirements, which are published on their

website. Two key sources are the Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool

(OSCAR) (WMO, 2015-1) and the IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007). The GCW

Observational Requirements website identifies multiple variables for the following

cryospheric elements: sea ice, snow, freshwater ice, ice sheet, glacier, iceberg, permafrost,

precipitation and surface temp / albedo.

OBSERVING SYSTEMS CAPABILITY ANALYSIS AND REVIEW TOOL (OSCAR)

The WMO Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) process develops a consensus view

between WMO members on the design and implementation of WMO integrated observing

systems (WMO, 2015-2). The most recent RRR report identifies the following WMO

application areas, which are activities involving primary use of observations that allow

National Meteorological Services or other organizations to render services in a specific

domain related to weather, climate and water (WMO, 2014): global numerical weather

prediction (GNWP), high-resolution numerical weather prediction (HRNWP), nowcasting and

very short range forecasting (NVSRF), seasonal and inter-annual forecasting (SIAF),

aeronautical meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, ocean applications, agricultural

meteorology, hydrology, climate monitoring (as undertaken through the Global Climate

Observing System, GCOS), climate applications and space weather.

OSCAR, the official repository of requirements for observation of physical variables in

support of WMO Programmes and Co-sponsored Programmes, is the foundation of the RRR

process. The OSCAR database contains some 750 variables covering the 12 RRR application

areas. In addition, OSCAR provides information on satellite observation capabilities for

approximately 35 capabilities (WMO, 2015-3) and gap analyses to indicate how relevant an

instrument is for the measurement of the selected variable, based on instrument design

characteristics (WMO, 2015-4).




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IGOS CRYOSPHERE THEME REPORT

The Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) is a strategic planning process initiated by

partners comprised of the Global Observing Systems (GOS), the International Organizations

that sponsor the Global Observing Systems, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites

(CEOS), and International Global Change Science and Research programmes. The IGOS

Cryosphere Theme Report identifies the requirements in cryospheric observations, data and

products, and provides recommendations on their development and maintenance. The

report includes tables providing current measurement capabilities and observational requirements for

the following cryosphere domains (IGOS, 2007): terrestrial snow (seven parameters), sea ice (11

parameters), lake and river ice (nine parameters), ice sheet (21 parameters), iceberg (seven

parameters), glaciers and ice caps (eight parameters), snow/ice temperature and albedo

(two parameters), terrestrial permafrost and seasonally frozen ground (24 parameters) and

snowfall (four parameters).

SENTINEL CONVOY ANALYSIS REPORTS

The European Space Agency (ESA) funded three exploratory studies (EO-Convoy) in three

thematic areas (ocean and ice, land and atmosphere) in order to investigate and develop

novel mission concepts. The reports of these studies identified the observation capabilities

from current and planned operational satellite missions, and the current and predicted gaps

in observational capabilities with respect to the operational and scientific needs.

The Ocean and Ice Observation Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities report identifies the

following key application areas and information requirements in three categories (Astrium,

2013-1):

Oceans (nine information variables subject to regular and sustainable observations from

satellites): global and regional operational weather forecasting, seasonal to inter-annual

forecasting, global oceanography nowcasting and operational open ocean monitoring,

coastal oceanography nowcasting, regional and coastal monitoring, global climate–

monitoring and climate change and treaty verification

Sea Ice (11 information variables subject to regular and sustained observations from

satellites): sea ice mass balance and freshwater redistribution, surface energy balance

and air-sea interactions, offshore infrastructure design, sea ice model development,

0perational ice monitoring and operational ice forecasting and outlooks

Land Ice (18 information variables subject to regular and sustained observations from

satellites): climate monitoring and prediction, global and regional weather forecasting,

sea level rise, water resources and energy generation, ecosystem management,

agriculture, transportation, engineering, recreation, tourism, disasters and hazards




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The Sentinel Convoy for Land Processes Task 1: Critical Review and Gap Analysis report

documents science needs and related information variables (some variables apply to

multiple categories) in the following categories (Remedios, Humpage, Ghent, & Whyte,

2012):

The Carbon Cycle (seven information variables): quantitative knowledge and spatial

distribution of carbon stocks and fluxes, and upscaling of point observations of carbon

fluxes (NEE, GPP, TER) to global scales

Surface Energy Balance (11 information variables): assimilation of land surface

parameters into numerical weather prediction models and monitoring of surface energy

balance and water status of continental biosphere

The Water Cycle (seven information variables): interaction of vegetation with water cycle

variables, modelling of horizontal water transport and flux of moisture between the

Earth’s surface and atmosphere by evapotranspiration

Terrestrial Ecosystems (nine information variables): estimation of vegetation stocks and

productivity, monitoring the impact of fires on the carbon cycle and atmospheric

composition and improved estimation of LAI using rededge information

Biodiversity (five information variables): monitoring of habitat types, ecosystems, land

use for biodiversity,

Land Use and Land Cover (10 information variables): estimation of vegetation stocks and

productivity and monitoring of habitat types, ecosystems, land use for biodiversity

Human Population Dynamics (five information variables): urban energy balance and

characterization

Essential Climate Variables (eight information variables): adequate long term

observations of variables relevant to monitoring climate change

Volcanos (five information variables): observation of volcano thermal properties

The EO Atmosphere Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities report identifies the following key

application areas and information requirements in two categories (Astrium, 2013-2):

Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry (33 information variables): upper tropospheric

and lower stratospheric composition and chemistry, stratosphere and mesosphere

composition and chemistry, tropospheric composition and carbon dioxide and methane

Meteorology (30 information variables) (from Oscar, 2014): global NWP, regional NWP,

nowcasting, synoptic meteorology, seasonal forecasting, aeronautical meteorology,

agricultural meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, marine meteorology,

WCRP, climate and climate monitoring

ARCTIC IN RAPID TRANSITION NETWORK (ART) PRIORITY SHEETS

ART has developed Priority Sheets for Future Directions of Arctic Sciences that provide

indications of environmental information requirements.




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The Arctic Biodiversity Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information needed

(Majaneva & al, 2015):

Spatial gaps in the sea-ice associated ecosystems and the deep-sea pelagic and benthic

systems

Confirmed species absence in up-to-date biodiversity inventories.

The Land-Ocean Interactions Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information

needed (Fritz & al, 2015):

Conceptual model of coastal retreat since the last ice age with the help of paleo-

environmental data

Temporal changes in ice sheet configuration, paleohydrology, catchment size, freshwater

budget and subsurface hydrogeological conditions

Paleoenvironmental data on regression and transgression history, and on ice sheet

growth and decay.

The Arctic Oceanography Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information needed

(Findlay & al, 2015):

Fate of terrestrial carbon in the ocean (thawing permafrost, weathering, river discharge,

coastal erosion)

Two-way fluxes through the sediment-water interface including particles, pore fluids and

gases, and the impact of bioturbation

Role of terrestrial organic carbon in the ongoing acidification of arctic shelf seas

Temporal dynamics of the vertical distribution of pelagic organisms across daily to

seasonal scales

Transfer of energy through trophic levels, combining isotope technologies, biomarkers,

and model-ling approaches

Potential of freshwater budget to change oceanic chemical composition, especially

salinity, alkalinity and ph

Stability of the halocline and the nutricline on a seasonal timescale

Temporal and spatial understanding of gas exchanges across air-ice-sea interfaces

Extent of light penetration and photochemical reactions

Potential impact of invasive species arriving from ballast water and shipping activities

Potential pollutants, the transportation of these pollutants into the arctic, and the impact

on local species and communities including local peoples.

The Proxy Calibration and Evaluation Priority Sheet identifies the following types of

information needed (Werner & al, 2015):




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Past environmental conditions (temperature, salinity, sea ice, freshwater input, current

regime etc.) in the (sub-)Arctic oceans

Seasonal population changes in sediment records (different size fractions of microfossils,

different biomarkers etc.)

Loss and alteration of organic matter during its transport through the water column

Impact of sea-ice distribution and current patterns on transport and export fluxes of

organic and inorganic matter

Organic and inorganic proxy preservation and diagenetic overprint

The Physical Processes in Arctic Sea Ice Priority Sheet identifies the following types of

information needed (Renner & al, 2015):

In situ validation of remote-sensing observations (both satellite and airborne)

Representation of the ice thickness distribution in global climate models

Snow thickness and state on various scales: from space, in-situ and with autonomous

platforms

Parameterisations of snow and melt ponds for inclusion in global climate models

The Paloeoceanographic Time Series from Arctic Sediments Priority Sheet identifies the

following types of information needed (O'Regan & al, 2015):

Millennial-scale climate and oceanographic variability in sediments in order to

reconstruct past response of the Arctic marine system to abrupt climate changes

Terrestrially-derived sea-level curves and deglacial dating

Detailed and accurate mapping of seabed and shallow sub-seabed environments

Combination of bathymetric and seismic data together with chronological and proxy data

extracted from core analysis for reconstructing paleo environments

ESA DUE PERMAFROST REQUIREMENTS BASELINE DOCUMENT AND FINAL REPORT V2

The DUE Permafrost project was funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) Data User

Element (DUE) program, a component of the Earth Observation Envelope Program (EOEP).

The goal of the project was to demonstrate (EO integrated services in the field of permafrost

monitoring of the boreal zone, based on an assessment of user requirements. The

information requirements identified through a user survey and the Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS) implementation plan included (Bartsch & al, 2009) (Bartsch & al, 2012)

(Bartsch & Heim, 2013):

Near-surface air temperature (seasonal range of air temperature variations (amplitude),

monthly near-surface air temperature, mean annual air temperature)

Land surface temperature (brightness surface temperature corrected towards Skin

Surface temperature between soil/air)




108

Soil moisture (skin soil moisture, moisture content at different depths, freeze/thaw-

degree days, solid-liquid ratio)


Snow cover extent and depth

Land cover (vegetation physiognomy / bare soils / water body / sand / peatland / moss,

area percentage of water body, area percentage of vegetation physiognomy, area

percentage of bare soil)

Elevation and topography/DEM (relative and absolute elevation, slope, aspect, feature

and change detection, variability within the grid cell)

Elevation change (subsidence due to thaw settlement, heave in the active layer)

Albedo (i.e. no snow, no leaf condition)

Leaf area index (LAI) or another volumetric index of total vegetation or an index of height

of vegetation cover

Runoff

Methane emissions (Methane content in atmospheric column)

GEO 2012-2015 WORK PLAN – ANNUAL UPDATE 27 NOVEMBER 2014

The GEO Work Plan provides the framework for implementing the GEOSS 10-Year

Implementation Plan (2005-2015). The plan identifies information, tools, and end-to-end

systems that should be available through GEOSS to support decision-making across nine

Societal Benefit Areas. The information requirements in each area include (GEO, 2014):

AGRICULTURE – Supporting sustainable agriculture and combating desertification: crop

and livestock production projections, early warning of famine, agricultural land use

change and pasture/rangeland biomass

BIODIVERSITY – Understanding, monitoring and conserving biodiversity: global,

standardized inventory of major ecosystems and the protected areas within them and

biodiversity change

CLIMATE – Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

variability and change:

Estimates of past and current climate to better detect climate variability and change

Historical atmospheric, terrestrial and marine observations

Proxy-based paleoclimate records over the last two millennia for the arctic and all

continents (including adjacent ocean regions)

Regional-scale reconstructions of seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and

atmospheric pressure fields

Annual updates of the carbon balance for key regions

Harmonized global carbon information based upon existing observations (land, ocean,

atmosphere and human dimension)

Greenhouse-gas data and products for CO2 and CH4




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Multi-year anthropogenic and natural flux trends

Estimates of biomass, forest carbon stocks, and disturbances

Estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes attributed to human action versus natural

processes at policy relevant scales

Distributions and changes in global and regional biomass

DISASTERS – Reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced

disasters

Integrated baseline geographic information, in-situ data, reference maps, and

observational data required in emergency events

Comprehensive natural-hazards datasets

Global earthquake and volcano monitoring, alert, and damage assessment

Comprehensive datasets for improving, time-dependent, earthquake hazard estimates

Large-area vulnerability modeling and mapping

Seismic and sea-level data (deep-ocean and tide-gauge)

Global tsunami hazard map through provision of bathymetry and topography data

Electromagnetic hazard monitoring (high-energy particle and hard UV fluxes in upper

atmosphere)

Harmonized global fire information (e.g. Fire danger) by integrating regional data wildfire

information

ECOSYSTEMS – Improving the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal and

marine resources

Global standardized ecosystem classification system and map for terrestrial, freshwater,

and marine ecosystems as a basis for worldwide inventory, assessment and monitoring

Operational monitoring of major ecosystems on land on an annual basis, including

properties such as land cover type; species composition; vegetation structure, height and

age; net ecosystem productivity; and biomass and carbon estimates of vegetation and

soils

Global and regional desertification

Temporal and spatial variations of ecosystems

Ecosystem resilience (i.e. The capacity to resist, and recover from, changes, such as

habitat fragmentation and alien species invasion)

Characterization, mapping and monitoring of global protected areas

Impact of landscape changes resulting from human activities (e.g. Construction, tourism,

agriculture) and environmental disasters (e.g. Ground subsidence, earthquakes, floods)

Changes in ecosystem extent, condition, structure, function, and composition

Phenology observations (in-situ and space-based)

Changes in global-change sensitive parameters such as forest carbon, vegetation, glacier,

snow and aerosol distributions

Production and delivery of ecosystem goods and services, from ecosystems to consumers




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Identification of potential supersites and natural laboratories

Critical aspects of mountain areas with steep topography and high elevations

ENERGY – Improving management of energy resources

Prediction of potential hazards to the energy infrastructure

Prediction of the production of intermittent sources of energy

Mapping of renewable energy potential

Improved energy management, including balance between energy demand and supply as

well as development of alternative energy scenarios.

Safe, efficient and affordable development and operation of existing and new energy

resources, with emphasis on minimizing environmental and societal impact while moving

towards a low-carbon footprint

Assessment of countries' potential for energy production

Quantity, distribution, usage, and quality of biomass in Africa

Assessments of vegetation-cover degradation or changes

Geothermal anomalies using thermal and mineral mapping under different climate

conditions (desert, savannah, rain forest)

HEALTH – Understanding environmental factors affecting human health and well-being

Distribution of meningitis and population at highest risk

Surveillance and prediction of seasonal influenza and early detection of pandemic

influenza

Aerosol effects on marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Near-real-time air quality observations and forecasts for health management, research

and public information

Environmental factors affecting the distribution and re-emergence of leptospirosis

Impact of extreme events, and climate variability and change, on the vulnerability of

water sanitation systems globally, and related burden of water-borne disease

Coastal and inland aquatic system health and human health impact from vibrios,

contaminants, and harmful algal blooms

Vector-borne disease monitoring

Environmental conditions conducive to the spread of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases

Dynamics and mechanisms underlying the relationship between social stressors, changes

in biodiversity, and disease transmission to humans (e.g. For lyme disease, west nile

virus)

Linkages between disasters (e.g. Floods, earthquakes, volcanic activity, tsunami,

cyclones) and areas prone to vector and waterborne diseases

Health consequences of intensive agricultural land-use

Pollutants and their compounds in air, atmospheric deposition, water, soil, sediments,

vegetation and biota

Vertical profiles of mercury species across the troposphere and lower stratosphere




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Changing levels of Persistent Organic Pollutants (pops) in the natural environment

WATER – Improving water-resource management through better understanding of the

water cycle

Changes in the water cycle (including precipitation, evapo-transpiration, soil moisture,

river discharge and storage in lakes and reservoirs, and groundwater storage), quantity

and quality of both surface and groundwater

“Watershed” and human health indicators

Global evapo-transpiration products for vegetated land surfaces, and also for lakes and

rivers, deserts, urban areas and snow-covered land-areas

Global soil-moisture product and service for climate and water management applications

Integrated data sets from the great lakes basin providing information on extent of ice

cover, surface and groundwater levels, and bacteria conditions at beaches

Global data compendium of the state of hydrological systems and affiliated water

resources, their accessibility and use by society

Real-time flood and drought information (forecasts and observations)

Data sets for monitoring frozen ground, glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice, and snow

Water-quality datasets

WEATHER – Improving weather information, forecasting and warning

User-driven probabilistic products such as tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall and

strong wind distributions

GLOBAL SATELLITE OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS FOR FLOATING ICE – FOCUSING ON

SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR

The objective of this study was to identify the required set of satellite measurements of

global sea ice, icebergs and freshwater ice on inland water bodies to address key science

questions relevant to the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the polar regions.

The following information requirements are identified in the report (Falkingham, 2014):

Sea Ice: ice cover / extent / concentration, ice classification / type, ice thickness, snow

cover on sea ice (depth and evolution), ice drift / motion, ice deformation (ridges, rafts

and rubble), floe size distribution, leads and polynyas, melt/freeze onset / melt pond

formation and evolution, and landfast (fast) ice

Iceberg: automated iceberg detection in open water, automated iceberg detection in sea

ice, iceberg dimensions and mass and calving / melt rates

Freshwater Ice: Lake ice phenology (freeze-up / break-up), lake ice concentration and

classification, lake ice and snow thickness, river ice phenology (freeze-up / break-up),

river ice classification and river ice thickness




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OUTLINE OF A TECHNICAL SOLUTION TO A GLOBAL CRYOSPHERIC CLIMATE MONITORING

SYSTEM

This technical white paper describes a system designed to provide regular and long-term

delivery of products based on observations of essential variables in the cryosphere, in

particular for the polar regions. The user information requirements identified in the paper

are as follows (Solberg & al, 2006):

Geophysical variables to retrieve for climate monitoring

Sea ice – extent, concentration (ice fraction per area unit), thickness, drift (speed and

direction), albedo

Seasonal snow – extent, coverage (snow fraction per area unit), albedo, depth, water

equivalent, surface temperature, wetness

Glaciers and ice sheets – surface type, mass balance, ice volume

Lake and river ice – presence of ice, ice thickness

Permafrost – presence of permafrost, thaw depth

Climate change indicator variables

Sea ice – minimum and maximum seasonal extent, number of ice days (per area unit),

break-up date (per area unit), refreeze date (per area unit)

Seasonal snow – number of snow days (per area unit), date of snow-free surface (per

area unit), first snowmelt start date (per area unit)

Glaciers and ice sheets – annual minimum and maximum area of each surface type, first

date of surface melt (per area unit), equilibrium line altitude (average or contour map)

Lake and river ice – break-up date, refreeze date, maximum ice thickness

Permafrost – surface thaw date, day of surface refreeze, number of thaw days

SAR SCIENCE REQUIREMENTS FOR ICE SHEETS

This document, tabled at the WMO Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) Third Session in May

2013, outlines the SAR data requirements for the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. The

report identifies science requirements for ice sheets based on a user survey conducted in

2012 under the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Ice Sheets Essential Climate Variable

(ECV) project, which were low resolution in the interior areas and high resolution in the

margin areas of ice sheets for both surface elevation changes and ice velocity (Scheuchl,

2013).

COORDINATED SAR ACQUISITION PLANNING FOR TERRESTRIAL SNOW MONITORING

This white paper, tabled at the WMO Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) Fourth Session in

September 2014, sets out recommendations for coordinated acquisition planning for SAR

satellite observations of terrestrial snow. The paper identifies the following key user

information requirements: snowmelt area, snowmelt liquid water content, and




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differentiation between dry/wet/no snow and wet soil, as well as frozen/thawing soil (Small

& al, 2014).

ICE INFORMATION SERVICES: SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND EARTH OBSERVATION

REQUIREMENTS 2007 UPDATE

This report discusses the benefits of ice information to industry, governments, citizens and

society, either directly or as a contributor to improved weather and climate prediction. The

report identifies the observational requirements for three key uses – near-real-time marine

operations, regional numerical weather forecasting and climate monitoring and science – as

follows (IICWG, 2007):

Sea ice extent – relative and absolute edge location

Sea ice concentration – accuracy and range

Sea ice stage of development – distinguish new, young, first-year and multi-year ice

Sea ice thickness

Fast sea ice boundary

Forms of floating ice – floe diameter

Leads/polynyas

State of decay – percentage area of meltponds

Sea ice topography – ridge height

Sea ice motion – accuracy and range

Icebergs – maximum waterline dimension

River ice extent – relative and absolute edge location

River ice concentration – accuracy and range

THE CONTRIBUTION OF SPACE TECHNOLOGIES TO ARCTIC POLICY PRIORITIES

This report resulted from a study for ESA designed to provide a perspective on how space-

based technologies can support Arctic policies at national, regional, and international levels.

The analysis identifies the contribution that communications, weather, navigation, earth

observation, surveillance, and science technologies can make to meet current and future

arctic policy requirements. The following user requirements for information were

documented (Polar View, 2012):

Safety

Weather forecasts

Sea ice and iceberg location and characteristics

Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals

Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) signals




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Ice cover on rivers and lakes used as ice roads

Floe edge (i.e., the boundary between immobile near-shore ice and moving sea ice)

Near-shore ice conditions

Sea surface temperature

Wind fields, target detection and classification

Distress alert and location information to help search and rescue

Extent of disasters, the type of destruction that has occurred, and the areas most

severely impacted

Marine oil spill detection and monitoring

Environment

Vegetation stress, algal blooms and variations in water sediment loads that may result

from pollution of land and water

Deposition of mine tailings

Changes in vegetation cover as a result of industrial activities

Discharge of pollutants from offshore structures

Monitoring and tracking of atmospheric pollution and trace gases

Water quality monitoring, including chlorophyll, sediment concentration and

concentration of dissolved organic matter

Time series of surface temperature, tropospheric and stratospheric measurements

Atmospheric essential climate variables (ECVs), particularly the surface and upper-air

elements (e.g., temperature, precipitation, water vapour, radiation budgets, etc.)

Sea ice, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, ocean colour, glaciers, biomass,

etc.

Gravity measurements

Movements of animal populations

Pace and distribution of habitat loss or conversion

Sustainable Economic Development

Location and characterization of snow and ice cover (land and sea ice)

Land stability within permafrost regimes

Land cover and land changes

Impacts of climate change trends on physical infrastructure

Space weather impacts on technology systems and infrastructure (i.e., communication

cables, power systems, pipelines and radio communication and navigation systems)

Locations of areas of open water within ice fields, as well as areas of thin, first-year ice

Sovereignty

Movement of illegal goods such as drugs and nuclear materials

Tracking vessels engaged in illegal activities

Detection and monitoring the movement of opposing troops and equipment




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Changes of traffic at specific locations (e.g. Suspected/actual military installations, critical

transportation links)

Indigenous and Social Development

Real-time information on ice ridges, moving ice or stretches of open water

EARTH OBSERVATION AND CRYOSPHERE SCIENCE: THE WAY FORWARD

This paper summarises the main results and conclusions from the Earth Observation for

Cryosphere Science Conference, held in Frascati, Italy in November 2012 and provides

guidance for future research. The paper identifies user requirements for environmental

information in several categories, as follows (Fernández-Prieto & al, 2013):

Snow – cover extent, mass, grain size, albedo, dust and carbonaceous particles in snow,

radiative forcings and responses to regional increases in emissions, quantification of SWE

Permafrost – seasonal freezing depth within the active layer, surface elevation changes

(frost heave and subsidence), coastal and cliff erosion over large areas, subsidence

associated with thaw settlement of the active layer and other hydrologic changes,

geophysical surface products such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Surface Soil

Moisture (SSM), Frozen/non frozen ground, snow extent, SWE, and biophysical

vegetation parameters,

Lake and river ice – lake ice concentration, extent and phenology, thickness, timing of

lake ice formation and disappearance, temporal variations of floating and grounded ice in

shallow lakes; river ice coverage, duration, phenology (freeze-up/ break-up dates and ice

cover duration)

Ice sheets – elevation/volume and mass changes, mass balance estimation, ice flow

velocities, albedo changes, ice sheet facies, change in ice flow dynamics, melting and

basal hydrological processes below ice sheets, in-situ data (e.g. automatic weather

stations, ice thickness, accumulation records, rock uplift, etc.)

Ice shelves – mass balance and its components, disintegration events, ice exported from

grounded glaciers to ice shelves, changes and fluctuations of inflow to ice shelves in

response to changing boundary conditions (e.g. surface mass balance, increased

surface/basal melt, etc.), the grounding line position of ice shelves and how it fluctuates

with time, rates of glacier or ice stream acceleration, changes in the seasonal surface

melting and melt ponding, quantification of ice loss due to calving, role of ocean

circulation for ice shelf melt rates, mass balance and stability, vertical and horizontal

deformation and quantification, onset and progression of fracturing, surface motion and

deformation on ice streams, and in grounding zones of ice shelves, in-situ observations of

the ocean (surface temperature and salinity) and on the ground (weather, GPS,

accumulation, sub-ice and near-ice ocean properties and circulation, and surface energy

balance)




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Glaciers and ice caps – ice thickness, glacier area and volume changes, high-resolution

DEMs, accumulation/snowfall over glaciers and ice caps

Sea ice – thickness and thickness distribution, drift, snow thickness on thick sea ice,

distribution of flooded and meteoric ice, classification of sea ice types and age, polynya

monitoring along the coast and sea ice drift monitoring, monitoring of the ice sheet

margins, validation data for Arctic sea ice

PRELIMINARY SCIENTIFIC NEEDS FOR CRYOSPHERE SENTINEL 1-2-3 PRODUCTS

This document provides results from a review on scientific needs of the cryosphere Sentinel

1-2-3 products, consolidated during the SEN4SCI workshop (March 22-24, 2011, ESA-ESRIN,

Frascati, Italy). It identifies the following variables required for cryospheric research (Rott &

Nagler, 2011):

Snow cover, global – snow cover area, snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface

albedo, snow melt area

Snow cover regional – snow cover area, snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface

albedo, grain size, snow liquid water content

Lake and river Ice – ice area, concentration, thickness

Permafrost and frozen ground – spatial distribution, active layer depth, soil freezing area,

surface temperature

Sea ice – ice extent, edge, thickness, drift, concentration and type, leads, polynyas, snow

depth on sea ice

Mountain glaciers and ice caps – glacier area, surface topography, facies, snowline,

glacier dammed lakes, ice velocity, surface accumulation, ice thickness

Ice sheets – ice margin, grounding line, surface topography, elevation change and

velocity, snow accumulation, surface melt extent, ice thickness, internal layer depth

Icebergs – size, position, draft, drift velocity

SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS FOR SATELLITE-BASED DATA PRODUCTS FOR

CLIMATE – 2011 UPDATE

This report provides supplemental details to the Implementation Plan for the Global

Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (WMO, 2004), which recognizes the

importance of deriving products and data records of physical variables from the

measurements made by satellites. The report identifies the following essential climates

variables in three domains (WMO, 2011-3):

Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) – Surface wind speed and direction; precipitation;

upper-air temperature; upper-air wind speed and direction; water vapour; cloud

properties; Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance); carbon dioxide; methane




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and other long-lived greenhouse gases; and ozone and aerosol properties, supported by

their precursors

Oceanic – Sea-surface temperature; sea-surface salinity; sea level; sea state; sea ice;

ocean colour

Terrestrial – Lakes; snow cover; glaciers and ice caps;, ice sheets; albedo; land cover

(including vegetation type); fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation

(FAPAR); Leaf Area Index (LAI); above-ground biomass; fire disturbance; soil moisture

WMO 2012 SURVEY ON THE USE OF SATELLITE DATA

The purpose of this survey was to collect information on the availability and use of satellite data

and products by users globally, and to identify any areas for improvement and remedial

action. The target audience for the survey was users in National Meteorological and

Hydrological Services organizations (NMHSs) of the World Meteorological Organization

(WMO) Member states and territories and other satellite users worldwide active in the fields

of meteorology, climate, hydrology, disaster risk reduction and related environmental

applications. The following information requirements were identified in four categories

(WMO, 2012-3):

Atmosphere: clouds, precipitation, temperature and humidity, winds, aerosol dust,

volcanic ash, imager radiances, radiative fluxes, ozone, sounder radiances, lightning,

greenhouse gases and other trace gases, and GNSS bending angles

Oceans: sea surface temperature, ocean surface winds, sea ice, sea level, ocean colour,

sea state (wave spectrum), sea surface salinity, ocean surface pollution

Terrestrial: surface radiation and albedo, soil moisture, inland waters (rivers, lakes,

floods), land surface temperature, vegetation (fapar, ndvi...), land cover, snow, ice

sheets, glaciers and ice caps, fire, biomass and digital elevation models

Space Weather: ionospheric, geomagnetic, energetic particles and solar activity

SNOW, WATER, ICE AND PERMAFROST IN THE ARCTIC (SWIPA): CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE

CRYOSPHERE

This report presents the findings of an assessment conducted between 2008 and 2011 by the

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) in close cooperation with the

International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), the World Climate Research

Programme/Climate and Cryosphere (WCRP/CliC) Project and the International Arctic Social

Sciences Association (IASSA). Information requirements related to the cryosphere are

identified in seven themes as follows (AMAP, 2011):

Climate (Surface air temperatures, Snow and rainfall precipitation, Winds, Waves, River

discharge, Clouds, Oceanic heat inflows, Greenhouse gas emissions, Soil moisture and




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temperature; freezing and thawing within soils, Special landscape types (e.g. shallow

lakes, organic soils), Snowmelt storage in small depressions and ponds)

Snow (Cover extent, Cover depth, Age, Local-scale variability in terrain and vegetation,

Snow water equivalent (SWE) (i.e. the depth of liquid water that would result from

melting the snow), Snow cover duration (SCD), Snowpack

condition/structure/stratigraphy (e.g. grain size, density, ice layers), Impurities in the

snowpack (e.g. leaf litter and organic and black carbon), Height, density, and distribution

of vegetation, Heavy metal content in snow)

Permafrost (Extent, Thickness, Active-layer thickness (ALT), Thermal condition, Carbon

pools in permafrost soils, Unfrozen zones (taliks), Changes in local factors (e.g. snow

cover, vegetation, soil organic layer thickness, thermal properties of the earth materials,

soil moisture/ice content and drainage conditions), Warming rates, Permafrost

landforms, Surface buffering layer, Interactions among the different geomorphological

processes and permafrost dynamics, Thermokarst landforms, Periglacial landforms (e.g.

ice-wedge or tundra polygons, pingos, palsas), Bottom-fast ice)

Lake and River Ice (Extent, Ice thickness (or volume), Ice composition, Ice cover duration,

Type (e.g. white, black, icings, frazil), Changes to landscape hydrology, in-stream

hydraulics, and river ice mechanics, Surface snow accumulation, Open-water discharge,

Snow cover thickness on ice, Water level to bottom of ice-depth, Oxygen-hydrogen

isotopes, Lake-ice phenological processes, Heat storage of lakes, River flow

hydrodynamics (e.g. depth, velocity, erosional capacity, forces applied on the ice cover,

and water surface slope), Annually laminated sediment sequences/sediment profiles)

Glaciers and Ice Caps (Ice cap extent and size, Glacier extent and size, Glacier thermal

structure, Glacier mass loss, Glacier surface melting rates/runoff, Glacier flow rates,

Glacier hypsometry (i.e. area-altitude distribution), Surface mass balance change (i.e.

annual balance between mass gains, due mainly to snowfall, and mass losses, due mainly

to surface melting and runoff and iceberg calving), Iceberg calving rates, Ice thickness at

the glacier terminus, Iceberg size and distribution, Changes in temperature and salinity of

ocean water adjacent to calving ice fronts)

Ice Sheets (Ice sheet extent and size, Ice sheet mass loss, Surface melting rates,

Meltwater runoff)

Sea Ice (Extent, Type/age (new, first-year, multi-year), Thickness (or volume),

Concentration (fractional coverage), Drift, Ice edge, Ice floes, Deformation (i.e. breaking,

rafting, and formation of pressure ridges) / Ice topography, Fractional cover, Snow depth

and density on ice, Surface and internal temperatures (or energy), Horizontal velocity,

Salinity, Snow-ice formation, Number of layers in the ice, Polynyas (areas of open water

surrounded by ice), cracks and leads, Snow density, Ice porosity, Brine pockets, Proxy

data (e.g. tree rings, ice cores, and sediment cores), Surface and bottom melt of drifting




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ice floes, Landfast ice, Sea-ice albedo, Melt ponds, Impurities in the ice surface and

snowpack (e.g. black carbon))

COMMUNITY REVIEW OF SOUTHERN OCEAN SATELLITE DATA NEEDS

This review represents the perspectives from a range of stakeholders, both research and

operational, in the Southern Ocean community on satellite data needs for the coming

decade. It is designed to provide the rationale and information required for future planning

and investment. The following requirements for environmental information derived from

satellite observations and in-situ measurements are identified in the paper (Pope & al,

2015):

Sea Ice (Sea ice area, Sea ice extent, Sea ice thickness, Sea ice concentration, Snow cover,

Sea ice edge, Sea ice drift)

Sea Surface Temperature (Daily measurements, Monthly averaged data, Synoptic

coverage of specific regions)

Sea Level/Sea Surface Height (Synoptic coverage of specific regions)

Atmospheric Parameters (Temperature, Humidity, Water vapor, Pressure, Precipitation,

Energy budget, Cloud properties (vertical structure, optical depth, supercooled liquid

water path), Absorbed shortwave radiation, Ozone, Aerosol composition, amount and

transport, Other gas concentrations)

Marine Microbes – Chlorophyll, Primary Production, and Biogeochemistry (Phytoplankton

biomass, Phytoplankton photo-physiology, Chlorophyll concentrations, Calcite

concentration, Particulate organic carbon, Microbial ecosystem size structure and

functional types, Chl and other pigments, Algal groups)

Marine Biology and Related Activities (Fisheries catch, Fisheries distribution space,

Fishing vessel activity, Penguin abundance and foraging behavior, Elephant seal behavior,

Krill abundance)

Terrestrial Cryospheric Connections (Ice shelf locations, Ice shelf thickness, Land/ice

masks, Permafrost, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice cap locations, Glacier velocities, Ice

sheet locations, Grounding line location, Albedo, Terrestrial snow cover, Ice topography,

Ice velocity, Basal melt/freeze rates, Englacial temperatures, Bottom topography, Iceberg

detection and tracking, Antarctic bedrock)

Surface Winds (Near-surface wind speeds, Near-surface wind directions)

Coincident Data – In-situ Measurements (Subsurface temperature and salinity,

Barometric pressure, Air temperature, Sea surface pressure, Sea surface temperature,

Snow cover, Sea ice thickness, Pressure ridging, Sea ice draft data, Sea winds)

MISSION CONCEPTS FOR A POLAR OBSERVATION SYSTEM FINAL REPORT

This report provides details about an on-going study into mission concepts for geostationary-

like polar observation systems, including a needs analysis based on a literature review and a




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user survey. The following requirements for environmental information derived from

satellite observations are identified (Macdonald & Anderson, 2015):

Atmosphere (Atmospheric Wind Vectors, Cloud properties, Aerosol optical depth,

Aerosol class, Surface solar irradiance, Tropospheric humidity / water vapour, Downward

longwave radiation, Ocean surface vector winds, Precipitation)

Sea Ice (Area, extent and concentration, Thickness, Drift, Ice snow albedo, Ice type

classification, Ice roughness and deformation, Ice surface temperature, Icebergs)

Ocean State (Sea surface temperature)

Land Surface (Surface temperature, Active fire products)

INTERACT RESEARCH AND MONITORING

This report, published together with a searchable metadata database, helps scientists and

other stakeholders to find details on the different research and monitoring projects which

have taken place at the INTERACT stations that provided data for inclusion. The report

identifies the following environmental information parameters that are being collected at

the stations through those projects (INTERACT, 2014):

“Climate” parameters

Meteorology – atmosphere (Air temperature, Air humidity, Air pressure, Wind velocity,

Wind direction, Precipitation)

Radiation (Short wave incoming, Short wave outgoing, Long wave outgoing, Long wave

incoming, Net radiation, UV-B, Multi-spectral, Cloud cover/hours of sunshine)

Energy balance (Energy balance)

Precipitation (Rain precipitation, Rain intensity, Snow precipitation, Snow intensity)

Soil (Soil temperature, Soil humidity (TDR))

“Geo” parameters

Geology/geomorphology (Quaternary geology, Sedimentology, Bedrock geology, Erosion)

Geophysics and geodesy (Gravity, Magnetic field, Aurora, Seismic activity)

Sub-surface characteristics (Ground surface temperature, Ground/soil temperature, Soil

moisture content, Ground water table, Soil water chemistry, Active layer depth,

Permafrost distribution, Permafrost thickness, Permafrost temperature)

Snow characteristics (Snow depth, Snow cover, Snow density, Snow temperature)

Atmospheric composition (CO2 concentration, CH4 concentration)

Greenhouse gas exchange (CO2 exchange, CH4 exchange, N2O exchange)

Energy budget (Net radiation, Sensible heat flux, Latent heat flux, Soil heat flux)

Hydrology/Limnology (Precipitation, River water discharge/water level, Lake water level,

Water balance, Water temperature, Lake ice cover (formation/breakup/thickness),




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Suspended sediment discharge, Organic matter discharge, PAR (Photosyntetically Active

Radiation)/secchi depth, Water chemistry)

Pollution (In air, In water, In soil, In snow/ice, Other)

“Glacier” parameters

Glacier characteristics (Glacier area, Topography, Elevation change, Terminus position,

Ice velocity, Ice thickness, Debris cover, Surface albedo/reflexion coefficient)

Mass balance (Mass balance, Snow water equivalent, Snow cover stratigraphy,

Equilibrium Line Altitude, Duration of snow cover, Calving flux)

Climate (Climate measurements, Energy balance)

Glacier hydrology (Run-off, Supra-, en- and subglacial drainage system, Meltwater

retention, Glacial lake outburst floods)

Other (Biogeochemistry of snow, ice and water, Microbiology of snow, ice and water,

Particles and aerosols, Pollutants e.g. POPs and heavy metals, in snow, ice and water,

Isotope chemistry of snow, ice and water)

“Bio” parameters

Vegetation (Flowering phenology, Amount of flowering, NDVI (plot/transect), Landscape

NDVI (from satellite images), Vascular plant community composition, Bryophyte

community composition, Lichen community composition, Fungi community composition,

Berry production, Aerobiological monitoring (pollen, spores, etc.), Species list

(community composition))

Arthropods (Abundance, Emergence phenology, Insect herbivory, Species list (community

composition))

Birds (Abundance, Distribution, Phenology, Breeding birds, Nest initiation phenology,

Nest predation rates, Species list (community composition))

Mammals (Mammal abundance, Mammal distribution, Mammal reproduction, Mortality,

Predation, Physiology, Species list (community composition))

Lake ecology (Phytoplankton (chlorophyll), Zooplankton, Vegetation, Fish, Invertebrates,

Species list (community composition))

Microbiology (Interstitial fauna, Species list (community composition))

Genetics (Collection of animal tissue)

Pollution (Pollution measurements in vegetation, Pollution measurements in water,

Pollution measurements in mammals (body burdens, biomarkers), Pollution

measurements in birds (body burdens, biomarkers on both adults and offspring e.g. egg

shell thinning, macro plastic in nests/in body))

Diseases (Mammals, Birds, Fish, Vegetation, Other)

Parasites (Mammals, Birds, Fish, Vegetation, Other)




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Socio-ecological issues (disturbance) (Number of visitors, Surface activities (e.g. removal

of vegetation, organisms, soil samples, ATV traffic, manipulations), Aircraft activities,

Emissions/discharge energy consumption, spill water, waste, garbage, atmospheric

emissions, etc.))




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APPENDIX 4: PEST TRENDS

Political / Policy Trends

Though Arctic nations structure their priorities differently and adopt different tones in their

policies, most desire cooperation and uphold Arctic peoples’ rights to have a voice in Arctic

governance and protect indigenous culture, traditions and lifestyles. However, conflicting

policy objectives have sometimes resulted in economic development taking precedence over

Arctic peoples’ rights and interests (e.g. resource exploration in the Canadian Arctic (CBC,

2015a)), and in one case (Russia), Indigenous peoples’ rights are being impacted by

legislative measures (e.g. the Nenets indigenous peoples´ organization Yasavey Manzara

being declared “foreign agents” under Russian law (Pettersen, 2015)).

The economic potential of the region is a primary driver of many national policies.

Approximately 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of all

natural gas reserves are located in the Arctic region. With this quantity of undiscovered and

untapped resource potential in a region with no clear political boundaries, it is possible that

continental shelf claims hold the potential to compromise relations between Arctic States

(Kingdom of Denmark, 2011). The following sections provide a summary of the key

political/policy stances of national, regional and multinational governance bodies that

impact the polar regions.

Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands

The Danish government introduced its Arctic policy in 2008 (European Economic Area Joint

Parliamentary Committee, 2011). Denmark has begun to place a stronger emphasis on the

strategic importance of the region, with the recent creation of an Arctic Command in Nuuk,

Greenland, to handle surveillance and S&R off the coasts of Greenland. Adoption of a

strategy for the Arctic, in the view of the Kingdom of Denmark, is an opportunity to develop

the region in a way that benefits its inhabitants foremost. In addition to respecting the right

of indigenous peoples to be represented in the governance of the polar region, the

Greenland self-rule government has acquired full control of all resources in Greenland.

Denmark observes their right to limit its current cash support to the Greenland government,

in case of major revenues from future mineral exploration projects (Kingdom of Denmark,

2011).

In 2014 Denmark submitted all claims to the continental shelf on behalf of Greenland to

protect its interest in natural resources in the High North, following closely, but overlapping

with similar Canadian and Russian claims. Greenland’s claim to these resources is a crucial

prerequisite to its future financial and political independence from Denmark (European

Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). The Faroe Islands also demonstrate




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an increasing interest in High North issues, predicated on the activity increased shipping

through the area would create.

Finland

The most recent Finnish strategy, adopted in 2013, reflects the nation’s growing perception

of itself as an Arctic country in possession of diversified Arctic expertise. It claims a

nationwide interest in the region for reasons of “economy, skills and competence, education

and training and research” (Government of Finland, 2013). Finland identifies itself as an

active actor in the Arctic Region, with the ability to “reconcile the limitations imposed with

the business opportunities provided” in a sustainable manner.

Mitigating the impact of climate change is vital for the stability and security of the Arctic.

While recognizing the economic growth provided by new transport routes, resource

availability, and increases in tourism, Finland sees these beneficial activities as needing the

proper perspective with respect to the catalyst for their growth – climate change. Finland

sees its role as that of a steward of sustainable development in the Arctic: “Actors planning

to launch operations in the area must have the capacity to evaluate and manage the risks

and potential outcomes of their activities” (Government of Finland, 2013). In particular, the

government sees opportunities emerging for expertise held in Finnish cleantech companies

through a need for decentralized energy production and infrastructure that places decreased

stress on the natural environment.

The foreseen growth of the mining industry, escalating tourism and the growing energy

industry have highlighted the need to develop transport and logistics capacity in the Arctic,

projects which Finland recognizes involve a cross-border dimension. These trends are further

reflected in the growing demand for Finnish designed and constructed ice-breakers

(Government of Finland, 2013). The nation views its involvement in existing projects to

develop Arctic sea areas as opportunities to be leading experts in Arctic maritime industry

and shipping. With respect to reserves of natural resources in the Arctic, it is the stance of

the Finnish government that “a large part” lies close to Finland between Norway and the

Yamal Peninsula – a belief that the nation hopes will lead to foreign investment

(Government of Finland, 2013).

In following with its focus on education and research, particularly in the study of climate

change, Finland also aims to upgrade satellite services on a public-private partnership basis.

Investments made in the Arctic Research Centre of the FMI enable a substantial expansion of

these types of operations. In showing support of the involvement of the European Union,

Finland is working for the establishment of an EU Arctic Information Centre (through

University of Lapland) (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).




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Iceland

Iceland makes claims to both territory and rights to sea areas north of the Arctic Circle via

the delineation of the Icelandic Exclusive Economic Zone. Its focus is on safeguarding broadly

defined security interests in the Arctic region through civilian means, working against any

kind of militarisation. Still, the Icelandic government acknowledges that disputes arising from

continental shelf claims may compromise relations between the Arctic States. Iceland

reflects this in its desire to increase the Arctic Council’s weight and relevance in decisions on

the region, where necessary (Althingi of Iceland, 2011).

It is of concern to Iceland that five Arctic coastal states (i.e. the United States, Canada,

Russia, Norway, and Denmark) have attempted to establish a consultative forum for Arctic

issues without the participation of Finland, Iceland, Sweden, or indigenous peoples through

the signing of the Ilulissat Declaration in 2008 (Althingi of Iceland, 2011). This is seen as a

potential cause of weakness to the solidarity between the recognized eight Arctic States. It is

its position that further efforts that may undermine the Arctic Council and Iceland’s interests

in the region must be prevented. Perhaps as a reaction, Iceland is promoting itself abroad as

a venue for meetings, conferences and discussion on the Arctic region (European Economic

Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). In addition, Iceland has aspirations to become a

transhipment hub for transcontinental shipping through the Arctic Ocean. A recent free

trade agreement between Iceland and China and firm bilateral cooperation on Arctic issues

under the Framework Agreement on Arctic Cooperation include shipping as a focal point

(Gudjonsson & Nielsson, 2015).

Icelanders, more than the people of other nations, rely on the fragile resources of the Arctic

Region, for example in the industries of fishing, tourism, and energy production. Recognizing

this, the Government of Iceland views it as vitally important to secure its position as a coastal

State and stands opposed to the five Ilulissat Declaration states in what it sees as an attempt

to assume decision-making power in the region. Iceland hopes to adopt a more collaborative

approach, setting up institutions, research centres and educational facilities in Iceland to

work with other States and organizations on Arctic issues.

Aiming to protect the economic resources of Icelanders, Iceland’s security interests place an

emphasis on the close surveillance of the increasing oil and gas transport through Icelandic

waters; these activities also impose further risk on the sea’s biosphere and spawning ground

in the area (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). Through this

emphasis on economic relations, it hopes that the next generation of bilateral agreements

targets common pollution prevention to a greater extent, as increased traffic of cargo vessels

is inevitable. It also actively supports the idea of an Arctic Chamber of Commerce to promote

trade cooperation between businesses across the region (Althingi of Iceland, 2011).




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Norway

The government of Norway intends to strengthen its position as a responsible actor and a

steward of climate change monitoring. The Government of Norway is focused on five priority

areas: international cooperation, a knowledge-based business sector, knowledge

development, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness and environmental protection

(Government of Norway, 2014).

The importance placed on international cooperation might be best demonstrated by the

promotion of cross-border freedom of movement in the region, specifically where it

concerns local border traffic with Russia. Norwegian policy acknowledges that a number of

challenges in environmental and resource management can only be solved with Russia’s

engagement and Norwegian-Russian cooperation (Government of Norway, 2006). Yet, it has

also stated that in backing its international and national obligations the presence of the

armed forces, the police and the prosecuting authority continues to be of great importance.

A strong presence of these institutions is deemed vital for meeting national security needs

and maintaining Norwegian crisis management capacity in the High North.

North Norway is experiencing continued economic growth with increased activity in the

region. A policy priority for the nation is to be a leading source of knowledge development in

the fields of petroleum, maritime transport, utilisation and management of marine

resources, environmental protection, climate and polar research, and research on

indigenous peoples. The tourism industry in the area has become year-round, the fisheries

industry is stable, and the minerals industry continues to show greater potential. It stresses

that fisheries and maritime transport, oil and gas must find methods to coexist in an

environmentally sound way (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee,

2011).

The Snøhvit natural gas field development in 2007 has demonstrated how local spin-off

effects can be created by petroleum activities in North Norway. This is best exemplified

through the 1,200 petroleum jobs in Hammerfest directly linked to the field’s opening

(Government of Norway, 2014). Observing these effects, Norwegian authorities intend to

play an ongoing, active role in promoting local and regional spin-off effects of petroleum

developments.

Still further economic potential in the Polar Region is present through Norway’s connection

to Svalbard. Norway intends to maintain Svalbard as one of the world’s best-managed

wilderness areas. Part of this aim is to continue the strict environmental legislation and

comprehensive protection measures, further developing them to meet the challenges that

will arise from continued economic expansion. The fisheries protection zone and 200-mile

exclusive economic zone around Svalbard, in the opinion of Norway, gives them strong




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economic potential and the rights to oil and gas discovered here in the future (Government

of Norway, 2006). Interests with respect to these delineations are not recognized by most

other Arctic states with a stake in the area (particularly Russia) (European Economic Area

Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).

Among Norway’s commitments towards developing the High North, a new grant scheme,

Arctic 2030, was established to support strategic projects in the five priority areas. The

government’s 2015 budget also included funding provisions specifically for mapping the

petroleum potential in the Barents Sea (Government of Norway, 2014). Many such efforts

are intended to enhance Norway’s ability to exercise sovereignty and promote sustainable

management of renewable and non-renewable resources.

Sweden

Sweden’s focus on the region has mainly been on the environment, the climate and ecology.

More recently, and particularly after the meeting of the five coastal arctic states, it has

become more aware of the region’s growing political importance. With other states, Sweden

stands opposed to the Ilulissat Declaration (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary

Committee, 2011). Its emphasis has been focused on the Baltic Sea area rather than the High

North, because of its geographical position.

Canada

Canada initiated the founding of the Arctic Council in 1996 when the region was less

important strategically to the country. It does, however, support a singular and divided

forum of the five coastal Arctic States, as demonstrated by its participation at Ilulissat in

2008 and hosting the March 2011 Chelsea, Quebec meeting.

Canada published its Arctic foreign policy in 2006, placing a very strong emphasis on its

sovereign claims over Arctic territory. Following this, Canada began strengthening its border

patrol in the Arctic region by increased military presence, in addition to commencing the

building of six icebreakers (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).

It has objected to external sovereign claims, such as Russian activity near its borders and

planting a flag on the sea floor at the North Pole. Similarly, Canada has long-standing

disagreements with the United States over the North West Passage and the demarcation of

both countries’ jurisdiction in the Beaufort Sea and with Denmark over a maritime boundary

in the Lincoln Sea. The Canadian government believes the abovementioned disagreements

to be well-managed, in no way diminishing its ability to collaborate and cooperate with its

Arctic neighbours.

Canada reformed its Arctic policy with a Northern Strategy in 2009 and a new Arctic Foreign

Policy a year later. Under this strategy for the north, Canada identified four avenues through

which it would advance domestic and international interests: “exercising sovereignty,




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promoting economic and social development, protecting its environmental heritage, and

improving and devolving Northern governance” (Government of Canada, 2013). While a

focus on sovereignty is stressed in this document, the tone is softened significantly from its

predecessor.

The primary objectives under these four policy areas are (Government of Canada, 2013):

engaging with neighbours to seek resolution to boundary issues;

securing international recognition for the full extent of the Canadian extended

continental shelf;

addressing Arctic governance and related emerging issues, such as public safety;

creating the appropriate international conditions for sustainable development;

seeking trade and investment opportunities that benefit all Canadians, and particularly

Northerners;

encouraging a greater understanding of the human dimension of the Arctic;

promoting an ecosystem-based management approach with Arctic neighbours and

others;

contributing to and supporting international efforts to address climate change in the

Arctic, as well as enhancing its own efforts on pressing environmental issues;

strengthening Arctic science and the legacy of the International Polar Year;

engaging Northerners with respect to its Arctic policy;

supporting Indigenous Permanent Participant organizations; and

providing Canadian youth with opportunities to participate in the circumpolar dialogue.

Canada’s presence in the region has expanded since 2007, in order to “responsibly exercise”

sovereignty through commitments to monitor, protect and patrol its borders in the region.

Among these enhancements to its capacity in the North, Canada planned the launch of the

“largest and most powerful icebreaker ever in the Canadian Coast Guard fleet” by 2020

(Government of Canada, 2013). Investments have also been made in new patrol ships

capable of sustained operations in first-year ice and berthing and refueling facilities in

Nanisivik, Nunavut, both of which are aimed at closer monitoring of waters as maritime

activity continues to grow. Inclusion of the United States and Denmark in the 2010

occurrence of the annual Canadian Forces sovereignty exercise “Operation Nanook”

demonstrates further willingness to exercise Canadian sovereign claims while facilitating

international cooperation and collaboration.

Canada rejects the premise that the Arctic requires a new governance structure or legal

framework, confident in the existing extensive international legal framework that is in place.

As with other Arctic nations, Canada believes the United Nations Convention on the Law of

the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a fair and legal basis for the delineation of continental shelf

claims. A partial submission to the United Nations regarding its claim of delineation of its




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continental shelf was made in 2013. Scientific surveys have been conducted since 2006 to

collect data in support of its initial submission (Government of Canada, 2015).

In acknowledgement of the environmental and social impacts that economic development

can have, Canada has taken steps to ensure that any development in its Arctic North is

sustainable. At the time the Arctic policy was published, it was guaranteed that no drilling

would take place in Canada’s Beaufort Sea until at least 2014; any plans to begin activity in

the area have since been indefinitely postponed by Imperial Oil, BP, and Chevron Canada

(CBC News, 2015). Progress has also been made to establish protected areas in over 10

percent of the region, designating 80 such areas covering nearly 400,000 square kilometres.

This dedication to preserving the culture and ecosystem of the North is reinforced by an

ambitious program to expand its national park system with three new parks and 70,000

square kilometres of protected areas, on and around Baffin Island and the Arctic wilderness

of Labrador (Government of Canada, 2009). With the change in government in October

2015, there are early indications that policy changes related to the Arctic and to Indigenous

peoples will be forthcoming.

United States

Under George W. Bush, the United States’ position was to operate either independently or in

conjunction with other states to safeguard its fundamental national security interests in the

Arctic region with missile defense and early warning, deployment of sea and air systems for

strategic sealift, strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations.

This included its view on the Arctic as an area of vulnerability to the United States from

terrorist, criminal or hostile attacks. The United States saw the increase of human activity

and projection for further traffic in the near future as requiring an assertive and influential

national presence as a response – taking the opportunity to “project its sea power

throughout the region” (Bush, 2009). This stance stood out as far more aggressively

protective in comparison to fellow Arctic States.

Under the policy set at the time, establishing openness of navigational routes through the

region while simultaneously making clear territorial claims was the core of American

intention towards the Arctic region. Directives issued by the President were explicit that

freedom of the seas is a top national priority. To the U.S., preserving the rights and duties

relating to navigation and overflight of the Arctic extends to the Northwest Passage and the

Northern Sea Route – areas it believes are straits for international navigation (Bush, 2009).

Likewise, the unresolved boundary issue with Canada in the Beaufort Sea was identified

specifically, with the U.S. position based on equidistance states in no uncertain terms.

The Obama administration has maintained the same emphasis on UNCLOS, albeit with a

much softer tone than its predecessor (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary




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Committee, 2011). Yet because the US Senate has not ratified the government’s signing of

the Convention, although this is a goal of the Obama Administration’s Arctic policy, the

Americans cannot make a formal claim to resources in the Arctic (Alaska). In addition to

advancing U.S. security interests, the National Strategy for the Arctic Region also lists as a

line of effort to “strengthen international cooperation [by working through] bodies, including

the Arctic Council, to pursue arrangements that advance collective interests, promote shared

Arctic state prosperity, protect the Arctic environment, and enhance regional security”.

(Barack Obama, 2013).

Significant investments have been made by the U.S. in infrastructure needed to collect

environmental data from the entire Arctic Region. The U.S. has consistently stated a priority

to advance scientific understanding that could provide the basis for assessing future impacts

and proposed response strategies. Part of this plan for accurate prediction of future

environmental impacts includes the delivery of near real-time information to end-users.

(European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). The US is chairing the

Arctic Council during 2015-2017 and two of its three focus areas relate directly to earth

observations:

Arctic Ocean Safety, Security and Stewardship

Addressing Impacts of Climate Change

Russia

Russia’s Arctic policies have been described as both “expansionist and aggressive” and

“innocent, inward-looking and defensive” (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies

in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014). At the center of both points of view is

Moscow’s focus on legitimate national interests: competition for natural resources and

control of northern sea routes. While Russia takes a hard stance on both of these issues,

they have exhibited their intentions through a goal of international cooperation level with

that of other Arctic states. This dichotomy of impressions is perhaps best exemplified by

statements made by Prime Minister Putin in which he said, “Russia certainly will expand its

presence in the Arctic. We are open to dialogue … with all partners in the Arctic region, but,

of course, we will defend our own geopolitical interests firmly and consistently” (Rowe &

Blakkisrud, 2013).

In general, Russia opposes the participation of any states aside from those eight on the

Arctic Council in decision making with regards to the Arctic. It assumes the objective of

organizations like NATO and the EU is to seize the natural resources of the Arctic and be

involved in the region’s governance. While Moscow espouses a desire for international Arctic

cooperation, it is adamant that Arctic interests should be kept to the five coastal states

(Rowe & Blakkisrud, 2013) (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).




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Internally, concessions to other international players have brought criticism on the

government.

Historically, Russia promoted an “extensive” approach to Arctic development – dispersing

population and economic growth across its vast northern coast (Conley, 2013). Twenty

percent of Russia’s utilization of natural resources already takes place in this region

(European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). This Russian Arctic Zone

(RAZ), with a total regional population of approximately 8 million (2006) is home to 46 towns

with populations over 5,000 and four cities larger than 100,000. It is identified as the primary

interest of its Arctic policy due to the fact that, while rich in natural resources, it is severely

underdeveloped in terms of local economy, infrastructure, communication systems, and

social institutions. It is a vast region that accounts for only 1% of national population, yet

produces roughly one-tenth (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic:

Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014) to one-fifth (Rowe & Blakkisrud, 2013) of Russian GDP.

The RAZ also presents significant issues of environmental concern for the Russian

government. Roughly 15% of the territory is estimated to be polluted or contaminated with

tens of thousands of cubic meters of highly radioactive nuclear waste (Heininen, Sergunin, &

Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014). Although

dumping practices were halted in 1991, the proliferation of nuclear installations in the region

over time has left a serious problem with nuclear waste. Russian and Western cooperation

(particularly from Norway) have focused efforts on waste treatment projects in the

Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the

Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014).

Perhaps most clear through its emphasis on the RAZ, Russia’s approach to the Arctic remains

primarily insular rather than international. When it does look outside its own borders it most

often deals with territorial claims and security interests. For example, an international

dimension of Russia’s Strategy-2013 dealt with its intention to legally delimit Russia’s

continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean – a practice several other nations have also adopted

(Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War,

2014). It has also engaged in a resolution with Norway to delimit contested waters in the

Barents Sea. Yet, in Russia’s view, the North East passage is a Russian inland sea, not

international waters, driving many of its actions in this area towards military security and

control of foreign military and commercial vessel traffic (European Economic Area Joint

Parliamentary Committee, 2011).

European Union

The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) of the European Economic Area observes that a

modern-day polar race has slowly started that threatens seemingly high long-term stakes.




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The European Parliament voiced concerns in 2008 over the ongoing race for natural

resources in the Arctic, which it saw as possibly leading to security threats for the EU and

overall international instability. The JPC thus “underlines the importance of overall stability

and peace in the Arctic region,” calling for safeguarding all security interests by civilian

means and opposing any form of militarization of the Arctic (European Economic Area Joint

Parliamentary Committee, 2011).

The different industries impacted by opportunities in the region have prompted varying

responses to avert such outcomes. The Council of the European Union favours a temporary

ban on new fisheries in those waters not yet covered by an international conservation

system until a framework extending the mandate of relevant Regional Fisheries

Management Organisations is developed. Individual nations have competing interests and

have begun formulating policies that position them to have a right to future claims on

discovery of new hydrocarbon deposits, yet all seem to agree that any future exploitation of

Arctic resources should be provided in full respect of strict environmental standards.

The Council also requested the EU to promote cooperation activities with the US, Canada,

Norway, Iceland, Greenland, and Russia in the field of multidisciplinary Arctic research,

thereby establishing coordinated funding mechanisms.

As an input to EU policy development for the Arctic, under the leadership of the Arctic

Centre, University of Lapland a network of 19 leading Arctic research and communication

centres and universities with extensive activities in and knowledge of the Arctic carried out

an assessment on the impact of development in the Arctic (Arctic Centre, University of

Lapland, 2014). The assessment report contains 24 recommendations covering the following

seven themes focused on change for consideration in the development of a comprehensive

EU policy framework for the Arctic:

Climate change in the arctic;

Changes in arctic maritime transport;

Changing nature of arctic fisheries and aquaculture;

Developing oil and gas resources in arctic waters;

Mining in the european arctic;

Activities affecting land use in the european arctic; and

Social and cultural changes in the european arctic.

Non-Arctic States

Driven by a desire not to be left out on the potential of future economic opportunities, non-

Arctic States are looking for a means to gain a more important role in Arctic governance.

There are currently 12 non-Arctic countries, nine intergovernmental organizations and 11

non-governmental organizations that are Observers on the Arctic Council.




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For example, France recognizes that it is not geographically an Arctic State, yet its Senate

believes that it could lead the way for the European Union’s more heavy involvement thanks

to its “highly recognised scientific research” (Martin, 2014). With many French companies

already working in the Arctic, particularly with regard to precautions in resource extraction,

the government is building a case that they can strike a balance between economic and

environmental interests in the Arctic for the EU.

A number of Asian countries have growing interests in the Arctic and have Observer status

on the Arctic Council. As noted previously, China is developing strong trade relationships

with Iceland, and apart from Iceland’s strategic location, China’s interest was probably

motivated in part by its aspiration for an Observer seat in the Arctic Council (Ingimundarson,

2015). Japan, Singapore and South Korea all aim to participate in energy resource

development and climate change research in the Arctic, but their primary interest is the

increasing accessibility of northern waters to commercial shipping (Cima & Sticklor, 2014).

Although India has scientific, environmental, commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic

region, its activities to date have focused primarily on climate change research (Ministry of

External Affairs, 2013).

Antarctic Treaty System

The Antarctic Treaty entered into force in 1961, signed by 12 nations. Since then the number

of countries acceding to the treaty has grown, with the total number of Parties to the Treaty

now expanding to 52. Among signatories to the Treaty, seven (Argentina, Australia, Chile,

France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) identify territorial claims, with the

United States and Russia holding a “basis of claim”. At the time the Treaty was entered,

positions of claim were locked in a status quo under Article IV. Under the Treaty, any

member of the United Nations is free to accede to it. On the thirtieth anniversary of the

Treaty, in the year it was set to be reviewed, all Parties adopted a declaration to record

“their determination to maintain and strengthen the Treaty and to protect Antarctica’s

environmental and scientific values” (Government of Australia, 2011).

The main goals of the Treaty are:

To ensure that Antarctica is used for peaceful purposes only (Article I);

To promote international scientific cooperation in the region (Articles II, III); and

To set aside disputes over territory and ensure that all facilities maintain a status of

openness (Articles IV, VII).

The result is a fully protected geographic region, covering all areas south of 60ᵒS latitude to

the South Pole, where the priority is scientific research (Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty,




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2011). Governance over the region is conducted annually by the 28 Consultative Nations6

through the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), accompanied by a meeting of the

Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP). Various ATCMs have also been held to

address specific subjects impacting the Treaty Area through “Meetings of Experts”, such as

shipping (2000), tourism (2004), ship-borne tourism (2009), and climate change (2010)

(Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, 2015).

Rather than vote on issues, Parties to the Treaty attempt to reach a consensus. This has led

to a “Treaty System” comprised of all recommendations, measures, decisions and

resolutions made at ATCMs. In addition to those that have been the focus of Meetings of

Experts, matters have been addressed at ATCMs such as:

Protection of the Antarctic environment,

Conservation of plants and animals,

Preservation of historic sites,

Designation and management of specific protected areas,

Information exchange,

Collection of meteorological data,

Hydrographic charting, and

Communications and safety.

Where acceding nations believe a more legally-binding implementation is required, further

agreements can be developed that complement the Treaty itself. The Antarctic Treaty

System thus includes the Agreed Measures for the Conservation of Antarctic Fauna and Flora

1964, the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals, the Convention on the

Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, and the Protocol on Environmental

Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (the Madrid Protocol) (Government of Australia, 2011).

While for much of the Treaty’s history it was not economically viable to recover natural

resources in Antarctica and under the surrounding seas, improving technology and the

Earth’s changing climate make accessibility an issue of consequence. In 1998 Parties to the

Treaty entered into the Madrid Protocol which, among other provisions, designated

Antarctica a natural reserve and prohibited all mining activities in the area until at least 2048

(Government of Australia, 2011).

6 United Kingdom, South Africa, Belgium, Japan, United States of America, Norway, France, New Zealand,

Russia, Poland, Argentina, Australia, Chile, Netherlands, Germany, Brazil, Bulgaria, Uruguay, Italy, Peru, Spain, China, India, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Ecuador, and Ukraine




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Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants

The overall objective of the Stockholm Convention is to protect human health and the

environment from persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Administered by the United Nations

Environment Programme, it is legally binding and open to ratification. Adopted in text in

2001, it was entered into force on May 17, 2004; 176 countries have opted to be party to the

Convention. The United States, while it has signed the Convention, is the only Arctic State

that has not ratified.

Annexes of the Convention identify 26 POPs that are to be eliminated or restricted, or for

which the unintentional production is to be prevented. Another four materials have been

proposed for listing under the Convention. Signatories are also expected to reduce or

eliminate release of any listed materials from their stockpiles and other waste (Stockholm

Convention, 2001).

Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal

The objective of the Basal Convention is to protect human health and the environment

against the adverse effects resulting from the generation, management, transboundary

movement and disposal of hazardous and other wastes. All of the Arctic States are among

the 178 Parties that have ratified the Convention, save the United States (which has signed

the convention),. The text of the document was adopted on March 22, 1989 and it was

entered into force on May 22, 1992. The provisions of the Convention aim to (Basel

Convention, 2011):

reduce hazardous waste generation and promote environmentally sound management

and disposal of hazardous waste;

restrict transboundary movement of hazardous wastes except where it is perceived to be

in acceptance of environmentally sound management; and

provide a regulatory system applying to cases where transboundary movements are

permissible.

International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)

The MARPOL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of

pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. All ships

flagged under countries that are signatories to MARPOL are subject to its requirements,

regardless of where they sail. The Convention includes regulations that aim to prevent and

minimize pollution from ships, currently delineated into six groups: oil, noxious liquid

substances, harmful substances carried in packaged form, sewage, garbage, and air

pollution. It was adopted in 1973, with a series of amendments since that time, and is

currently in force (International Maritime Organization, 2015).




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Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

The CBD is an international treaty under the United Nations Environment Programme aiming

to sustain the rich diversity of life on Earth. Its main objective is to organize the development

of national strategies for the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity. Often

seen as the primary treaty contributing to sustainable development, Parties are each

responsible for applying the CBD’s provisions within their own national jurisdictions. It

adopts a flexible approach to implementation, identifying general goals and policies. Its 193

ratified Parties are free to determine how best to implement them. Of the Arctic States the

United States, while a signatory, has not ratified the CBD. The text of the Convention was

adopted June 5, 1992 and entered into force December 29, 1993 (Convention on Biological

Diversity, 2015). The Convention is the first agreement to address all aspects of biological

diversity: species, ecosystems and genetic resources.

Since it was entered into force, the CBD has been supplemented by two additional

agreements:

The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (2000), governing the movements of living modified

organisms resulting from modern biotechnology from one country to another; and

The Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing

of Benefits Arising from their Utilization (2014), which establishes more predictable

conditions for access to genetic resources and helps to ensure benefit-sharing when

genetic resources leave the contracting party providing the genetic resources.

Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)

OSPAR is a legally-binding multilateral treaty between the coastal states of the North-East

Atlantic, the European Commission, Luxembourg and Switzerland. It was adopted in 1992

and entered into force on March 25, 1998. The Convention applies to the international

waters and territorial seas of each of the contracting parties, the sea beyond and adjacent to

the territorial sea under each coastal state’s jurisdiction, including the water bed and sub-

soil situated in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, and the dependent seas which lie north of

36ᵒN latitude between 42ᵒW and 51ᵒE longitude – excluding the Baltic Sea, the Belts, and the

Mediterranean Sea. Overall, the Convention is a mechanism for cooperation, stressing

integrated management of human activities in the marine environment.

Parties to the Convention are to take all possible steps to prevent and eliminate pollution

and take the necessary measures to protect the maritime area against the adverse effects of

human activities, so as to safeguard human health and conserve marine ecosystems. Also,

when practicable, parties should restore marine areas that have been adversely affected.

Signatories are obliged to enact precautionary and polluter-pays measures, along with

programmes to use the most recent technological capabilities to prevent and eliminate




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pollution completely. This includes an emphasis on the development and use of clean

technology (OSPAR, 1992).

Helsinki Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area

The Helsinki Convention is a multilateral treaty between the states surrounding the Baltic

Sea, and extending to the broader European community. Text of the convention was

adopted in 1992 and it was entered into force on January 17, 2000. The Convention applies

to the whole Baltic Sea area and includes its waters, sea bed, and catchment areas (to

account for land-based pollution).

It aims to prevent and eliminate pollution in order to restore the ecology of the Baltic Sea

Area and preserve its future ecological balance. Parties to the Convention are expected to

follow the precautionary and polluter-pays principles. Signatories should also promote best

environmental practices and available technologies in their own activities. The Convention

also emphasises that actions taken in its implementation should not result in transboundary

pollution, affecting regions outside of its area of application (HELCOM, 1992).

United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples

The UN Declaration is a non-legally binding document that describes the individual and

collective rights of indigenous peoples around the world. It addresses issues of culture,

identity, language, health and education, and provides States and international organizations

with guidance on harmonious, cooperative relationships with indigenous peoples’ groups.

Through its application, States are expected to respect the special importance of the culture

and values of indigenous peoples, including those in the polar regions.

It was adopted in September 2007, with 143 UN States voting in favor. Four voted against,

which included Canada and the United States – both of which later revised their position and

endorsed the Declaration. Eleven nations abstained, including the Russian Federation

(United Nations, 2008).

Indigenous and Tribal Peoples Convention

Twenty-two nations have ratified this Convention of the International Labour Organization

since it came into effect in 1991. Of these, only two (Norway, in 1990, and Denmark, 1996)

are Arctic States. This Convention serves as a legally-binding international instrument dealing

with the protection of indigenous peoples’ rights and guaranteeing respect towards their

lifestyles. It provides a guideline by which indigenous and tribal peoples may overcome

discrimination, ensuring that they benefit from an equal footing in the national society

(International Labour Organization, n.d.).




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United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

UNCLOS is the most comprehensive attempt at creating a unified regime for governance of

the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of ocean space. It governs all aspects of

ocean space including: delimitation, environmental control, marine scientific research,

economic and commercial activities, technology transfer, piracy, and the settlement of

disputes. It applies the notion that all problems of ocean space are closely interrelated and

need to be addressed as a whole. Entered into force on November 16, 1994, all of the Arctic

States except for the United States have ratified UNCLOS (United Nations, 2013).

Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) in the Arctic

The SAR Agreement is a multilateral treaty negotiated under the Arctic Council during the

May 12, 2011 meeting in Greenland. It entered into force January 19, 2013. Its objective is to

strengthen the cooperation and coordination of aeronautical and maritime search and

rescue operations in the Arctic. Much of this coordination is accomplished by the delineation

of national areas of coverage for the 13 million square miles in the Arctic in the event of a

plane crash, cruise ship sinking, oil spill, or other disaster. Each Party to the Agreement

(Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Russian Federation, the United States, Canada, Denmark and

Iceland) has an area of the Arctic defined in which it takes the responsibility to lead the

organization of response for SAR incidents. It is the obligation of all signatories to provide

SAR assistance regardless of the nationality or status of those in need of assistance (Arctic

Council, 2011) (United States Government, 2013).

International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS)

SOLAS is the International Maritime Organization (IMO) safety treaty specifying the

minimum safety standards for the construction, equipage, and operation of ships. The SOLAS

Convention, adopted in 1974, requires flag States to ensure that their ships comply with

these standards. It includes articles setting out general obligations and an annex with

chapters specifying more narrow requirements. The fifth of these chapters is the only one

that applies to all vessels on the sea, including private yachts, small craft, and commercial

vessels on international passages. Many countries have turned these international

requirements into national laws (International Maritime Organization, 2013).

The IMO adopted the sections of the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters

(Polar Code) enabled by SOLAS in 2014, and the sections enabled by the International

Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) in 2015. The sections of the

Polar Code related to the International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification

and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) have yet to be approved. The Polar Code addresses

those additional provisions deemed necessary for consideration beyond existing

requirements of the SOLAS Convention, in order to take into account the climatic conditions




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of Polar ice-covered waters and to meet appropriate standards of maritime safety and

pollution prevention (International Maritime Organization, 2014).

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)

CITES is an international agreement between governments. Its aim is to ensure that

international trade in specimens of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival.

Because trade in wild animals and plants involves the crossing of international borders, the

effort to regulate these activities requires international cooperation. Today, the Convention

gives varying degrees of protection to more than 30,000 species of animals and plants,

whether they are traded as live specimens or products. All Arctic States have ratified CITES,

which entered into force on July 1, 1975 (CITES, 2015). Trade in polar bears is controversial,

with a recent proposal by the U.S. to ban trade rejected by the Parties to the Convention

(ITK, 2013).

Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS)

The CMS Convention aims to conserve terrestrial, aquatic and avian migratory species

throughout their geographic range. It is an intergovernmental treaty, coordinated through

UNEP, concerned with the conservation of wildlife and global habitats. It brings together the

States through which migratory routes exist and lays a legal foundation for conservation

measures. Of the Arctic States, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are Parties (CMS,

1979).

Economic Trends

The Arctic Ocean’s inaccessibility has long meant that the region was largely insulated,

limiting much capability for navigation. However, the decreasing ice cover is already leading

to increases in shipping, tourism and broader economic development. While the full extent

of these changes will not be seen for some time, businesses and nations are already taking

advantage of greater ability for vessel access to the region.

In order to enhance progress in Arctic economic development, a heightened focus is being

placed on accompanying development of double-hulled shipping vessels, deep water ports,

improved navigation and satellite communication, icebreaker, search and rescue capabilities,

and aviation infrastructure. The continued economic development of the Arctic must be

counterbalanced with the risks posed to the increasingly at-risk ecosystem. Increased

onshore and offshore drilling enhances the risk of potential oil spills. The rapid expansion of

shipping and tourism has increased the quantity of pollutants released from large vessels as

well.




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Resource Development

The variation in approach, importance and tone in policy by the Arctic coastal states is

reflected in the very different models of economic development each has pursued. The

former Soviet Union, for example, promoted “extensive” Arctic development in which

territorial control was interwoven with development, leading to population dispersion across

vast territories. Conversely, Canada and the United States employed more intensive

economic development models. Their focus was on extractive industries with minimal

population and infrastructure requirements. For example, America’s Arctic economic

development was focused primarily on North Slope oil (Conley, 2013).

New oil production in the Arctic, particularly from offshore discoveries, could potentially

take decades to bring to market at great expense. Estimates for the economic potential of

hydrocarbon resources exceed $1 trillion in the U.S. Arctic and $1.7 trillion in the Russian

Arctic. The exploitation of mineral resources, particularly rare earth (‘strategic’) minerals

(iron ore, nickel, and palladium) may be a more important economic driver in the near term

(Conley, 2013). While recent changes in GDP growth (particularly in China) have dampened

demand for minerals, there are signs that the industry expects longer term growth prospects

to be strong (MAC, 2014). In particular, China and India are expected to continue to have an

appetite for minerals and metals that will only increase, especially because their per capita

usage of many metal-intensive products is still relatively low. Another source of growth in

demand is for uranium for nuclear power generation; for example, the International Energy

Agency has projected growth in nuclear power generation of between 57 per cent and 161

per cent from 2012 to 2040 and the US Energy Information Administration has stated that it

expects nuclear power generation to more than double between 2010 and 2040 – from over

2.5 trillion kilowatt hours to almost 5.5 trillion kilowatt hours (Zavattiero, 2015).

Reflective of its economic position and dependence on future discoveries, as well as its

peacekeeping approach to the region, Iceland’s national Arctic policy stresses that all figures

portraying unexploited resources “should be taken with caution as they are based on

probability” (Althingi of Iceland, 2011). This demonstrates that even in passive ways, Arctic

States are aware of and angling for a future share of the potential long-term economic gains

represented by the region.

The past decade has seen some historically high prices for iron, copper, gold, coal, rare

earths, uranium and other metals and minerals, all available above the Arctic Circle. While

harsh regulations and rules are imposed before drilling for oil by some Arctic countries,

mineral extraction industries are faring far better. Estimated investments in excess of $100

billion could be attracted to access mineral reserves in the Arctic over the next decade

(Jamasmie, 2013). Established and prospective mines have implications on the environment,

local populations, and the usefulness of the area for other, more sustainable projects (e.g.




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fishing grounds). The following paragraphs provide an overview of mineral extraction

activities in the polar regions.

Russia

In the early 2000s, Arctic Russia possessed the greatest extractive yield of raw materials and

precious minerals; Norilsk is home to the world’s largest nickel mine and produces nearly

half of the world’s palladium (Lindholt, 2002). Russia long ago established itself as the

world’s largest Arctic mining nation through the strategy of placing mining centres

throughout its RAZ. Today, it also produces large volumes of copper, tin and uranium among

many other minerals.

United States

The largest lead and zinc mine in the Arctic is Red Dog in Alaska. On the state’s southern

coast, plans for Pebble Mine suggest it would be the largest source of gold and copper in

North America. Construction of this enormous complex is controversial due to its potential

impact on Alaskan fishing grounds and salmon rivers (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen,

2014).

Canada

Canada is one of the leading exporters of “conflict-free” gem-quality diamonds (Loe,

Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014). Canada also expects some of the highest growth from

its deposits of iron ore on Baffin Island from 2015 through the short term. Planned copper

and zinc projects in the Izok Lake corridor are also expected to be operational in Nunavut by

2018 (Jamasmie, 2013).

Greenland

Greenland has very limited mining activities currently. Although large deposits of iron, gold,

uranium and rare earth minerals exist, none are currently being mined, in spite of strong

government support, mainly due to the high costs of operations, fundamental lack of

infrastructure, and for a few prospects, perennial sea ice cover. Greenland expects higher

rare earth mineral production from its Kvanefjeld deposit in a few years and the government

currently in power have recently changed a former ban of uranium mining (unavoidable with

mining the rare earth mineral deposits). Expected to last twenty years, the site’s yield could

boost Greenland’s GDP by 20 percent (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014).

Finland

Finland’s interest in mining has spiked over the last decade. At present, one-eighth of the

geographical extent of the country has been reserved for future mining activities. This

dramatic rise is alarming to groups with environmental concerns, especially after a leak at




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the Sotkamo nickel mine caused serious heavy metal levels in local water supplies (YLE News,

2012).

Sweden

According to proposals in their Mineral Strategy, the Swedish government hopes to see the

number of active mines in the country double to the low-30s by 2020. Many of these new

sites would be located in the northernmost Swedish provinces. Activity at the world’s largest

iron mine, one of Sweden’s existing fifteen sites, has prompted the residents of the town of

Kiruna to move 3 kilometres east to avoid “falling in” (Wainwright, 2014).

Norway

Northern Norway is home to in excess of 40 operational mines, and the expectation is for

that number to nearly double within the short term. The effects of mining are particularly

controversial in Norway, as the country currently allows tailings to be dumped under water,

typically in deep fjords (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014). The most recent mine

opening in Norway was the Spitsbergen coal mine in the Svalbard archipelago.

Iceland

Iceland has established itself as one of the world’s top aluminum producers. It also has

experienced strong internal environmental opposition to establishing new projects. Such a

national attitude toward mineral extraction has made the establishment of new sites slower

and much more difficult. Still, Alcoa opened a large-scale aluminum smelter in Fjarðaál in the

early 2000s and a once-cancelled silicon plant in the Bakki-Húsavík area is scheduled to begin

operations in 2017 (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014) (Iceland Monitor, 2015).

Antarctica

Antarctica is also known to have significant mineral deposits. Extraction is difficult to

impossible, with the vast covering of moving ice streams, glaciers and snow that blankets the

land mass. However, under the terms of the Antarctic Treaty, there has never been

commercial mining and any mining is currently banned (British Antarctic Survey, 2015)

(Ward, 2015). There are no known plans by parties to the Treaty to reverse this mining ban

on the Antarctic region.

Transportation and Shipping

Rising fuel costs and the increased demand for valuable commodities have increased the

desire for shorter sea routes. Ships sailing between East Asia and Western Europe could save

more than 40 percent in transportation time and fuel costs by navigating the northern sea

lanes rather than the southern route through the Suez Canal. Safety is crucial especially in

these regions, where conditions are harsh and the reliability on support infrastructure is low,

increasing the importance of avoiding spills and accidents. Shipping and other marine




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transport brings environmental impacts like disruptive noise, potential collisions and risks

from oil spills, increasing discharge of other related pollutants and particulate matter, and

the potential introduction of invasive species carried by ballast water.

Established under the 1991 Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, Protection of the

Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) was later continued as a Working Group under the Arctic

Council Charter. In 2004, PAME was requested to conduct an assessment of marine shipping

in the Arctic under the guidance of Canada, Finland, and the United States (PAME, 2015). Its

main objective was to evaluate the current status of marine traffic in the Arctic with respect

to the goals set in the 2004 Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (AMSP).

The 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) was the first comprehensive review of

circumpolar shipping activities. The Assessment notes that while traffic has increased

significantly, with increasing voyages to the Arctic and between Arctic destinations, various

waterways are not predicted to become viable, long-scale transit routes in the near term.

Mobile and unpredictable ice in many of these routes – including Canada’s “Northwest

Passage” – poses significant navigational challenges. With this in mind, the AMSA also set

guidelines on enhancing Arctic marine safety, protecting the environment and peoples of the

Arctic, and building an Arctic marine infrastructure.

Many of PAME’s activities aim to address policy and non-emergency pollution prevention

and control in keeping with the 2004 AMSP. A framework for this work is presented

biannually as the PAME Work Plan. It provides an outline of projects and activities being

undertaken to directly address issues identified in annual updates to the AMSA. After the

last Work Plan lapsed, PAME recognized that the speed and diversity of ways the Arctic is

changing has evolved since the 2004 Plan.

The next iteration of the AMSP, covering 2015 to 2025, was developed to address this new

attitude on the changing environment. It was accepted by the Arctic Council during the April

2015 meeting in Iqaluit, Nunavut. While the current Plan carries forward the previous goals

of conservation, sustainable resource use and the prosperity of Arctic inhabitants, it also

places an emphasis on increasing understanding of the impacts of human activities, climate

change and ocean acidification (PAME, 2015).

Other organizations have contributed efforts to establish best practices and regulations for

Arctic shipping as well (Parsons, 2012) (IMO, 2015b). In 2012, the World Wildlife Foundation

(WWF) and FedNav Canada collaborated on recommendations for safe and sustainable

Arctic shipping, covering a range of topics, including voyage planning to avoid sensitive

wildlife habitat and requiring slower vessel speeds to reduce emissions in the region. The

Polar Code, which will be entered into force at the beginning of 2017, is accompanied by

related amendments to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS)




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and the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) that

make it mandatory under both.

Among the regulations the Polar Code establishes are aspects of safety protecting vessel

passengers, strict guidelines for the materials and manufacture of vessels permitted to

operate in lower temperatures, and mandatory training and navigational data receiving

practices (IMO, 2015). In the context of regulations set by the IMO, a number of Arctic States

have accepted responsibility for providing navigational warning and meteorological services

to facilitate the safe management of Arctic marine traffic.

Improvement of the North’s overall transport efficiency is important for the long-term

development and viability of the region. More time- and cost-efficient intercontinental

shipping is a key economic driver for Arctic development. Global recognition – particularly by

non-Arctic States such as China and India – of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest

Passage as new alternative trade routes has spurred significant infrastructure investment.

While there are challenges in establishing an efficient multi-modal transport system in the

High North that will improve connections throughout the region, many nations’ policies

place a priority on maritime transportation. Still, many recognize the need for safety

improvements and modernization of roads and railways in the Arctic region as well.

Implementation of the United States’ Arctic policy places an emphasis on the “preparation

for increased activity in the Maritime Domain” by guiding its activities towards maintenance

and improvement of ports and other infrastructure (United States Government, 2014).

Iceland’s and Russia’s policies place an emphasis on the management of existing routes, with

both mentioning a need to develop cross-polar aviation capabilities (Althingi of Iceland,

2011) (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold

War, 2014). The Arctic strategy document for Sweden puts most attention on the state of

regulations regarding maritime safety and restrictions on the transport of oil and other

materials that present an ecological risk (Government Offices of Sweden, 2011). Norwegian

policy similarly frames its transport requirements around the energy industry, but also

identifies improvements that need to be made to its transportation infrastructure –

committing to plans to establish transportation connections with its Barents region

neighbours before 2020 (Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2009).

The Canadian government, through the Office of the Auditor General, has taken action on its

Arctic strategy by assessing government agencies’ ability to adequately support safe marine

navigation in Canadian Arctic waters. Among the findings of the audit were that Arctic

waters were insufficiently surveyed and charted, little progress on mandated reviews of

navigational aids had been made, and present icebreaker presence had been decreasing. It

does note, however, that availability of weather and ice information has been improving




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even in the face of new challenges presented by the changing environment (Office of the

Auditor General of Canada, 2014).

Fisheries

Until recently, environmental conditions prevented commercial fishing activity in the Arctic

Ocean. In 2012, a group of more than 2,000 researchers from 67 countries noted that the

loss of permanent sea ice had opened up as much as 40 percent of this area during the

summer months, making industrial fishing activities viable for the first time (Canadian Press,

2012). With fish stocks and distribution of marine species dependent on the right water

temperatures, suitable seafloor topography, availability of food and proximate spawning

grounds, the effects of increased industrial activity and sea traffic (such as the currently

emphasized ocean acidification) on the ecosystem could be devastating if sustainable

practices are not first established. The researchers signed an open letter calling for a

moratorium on Arctic commercial fishing until extensive research could be completed on

these newly accessible waters. Ongoing meetings of scientific experts on fish stocks in the

central Arctic Ocean identify Arctic research and monitoring activities and continue the

process of producing the scientific information necessary to support the development of an

international agreement on fishing in the Arctic in areas outside the territorial waters of the

five Arctic coastal states (NOAA 2015).

A moratorium was agreed to by the Arctic coastal states in 2014 but never signed. Its

endorsement was finally achieved from all five coastal nations in a July 2015 meeting in Oslo,

Norway (Arctic Five, 2015). The agreement prevents all five signatories from taking part in

commercial fishing in waters beyond the northern limit of their individual 200-mile exclusive

economic zones until a full scientific assessment of fish stocks and how to manage

sustainable harvesting is undertaken. This would halt their own activities yet would not

prevent boats from China, Japan, South Korea and the other nations of the European Union

from entering the region (Galloway, 2015). Similar to its reaction to the Ilulissat Declaration,

Iceland expressed concerns over its – and other nations’ – exclusion from the agreement

(Quinn, 2015). The parties to the Oslo agreement hope that the moratorium will serve as a

template for a similar binding international agreement.

Fishing in the waters around the central Arctic is regulated through the identification of

exclusive economic zones by UNCLOS and a system of treaties and agreements established

under the Constitution of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Both

UNCLOS (1982) and the UN Fish Stocks Convention (1995) require nations to cooperate on

resource management beyond their legal zones.

Fishing in the Southern Ocean is regulated by the Convention on the Conservation of

Antarctic Marine Living Resources, which was adopted in 1980 (CCAMLR, 2014). It was a

https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/departementene/ud/vedlegg/folkerett/declaration-on-arctic-fisheries-16-july-2015.pdf




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multilateral response to growing concerns about the impact of unregulated increases in krill

catches in the Southern Ocean on Antarctic marine ecosystems. The Commission for the

Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) establishes the regulatory

framework applied to the management of each fishery in the Convention Area.

In both the polar regions (and elsewhere in the world), illegal, unreported and unregulated

(IUU) fishing is a growing concern. The level of IUU fishing has reached major proportions for

some species and the Global Ocean Commission believes that it may account for as much as

one-fifth of the global catch, at an estimated value of $10-23.5bn per year (Global Ocean

Commission, 2015). IUU fishing is monitored by agencies such as CCAMLR and the European

Fisheries Control Agency (EFCA), and industry associations like the Coalition of Legal

Toothfish Operators (COLTO) play a proactive role in helping to identify illegal fishing activity.

Polar Tourism

Little has been done to provide perspective on the market demand and capacity for polar

cruising and what this means in the context of economic (and environmental) sustainability.

An unfettered increase in the number of cruises and passengers visiting the polar regions will

have an increasingly negative impact on these fragile environments. To date, existing

regulation, monitoring and management of cruise volumes is inadequate and unsustainable

– providing little control over the rapidity of these impacts. More effort is broadly needed to

provide enforceable regulations on planning and practices in polar tour operations

(Kobayashi, 2012).

Advanced ship technologies together with improved marine charts and navigational aids

have allowed cruise ship travel to increase exponentially. These changes not only added

numbers of tourists, but also expanded the seasonal and geographical reach of polar

tourism. The most recent developments have liners capable of carrying anywhere between

800 and 3,700 passengers, including crew. In addition to this, year-round polar tourism has

become a reality (GRID-Arendal, 2008). Tourism activities in the polar regions have expanded

tremendously, with ship-borne tourists increasing by 430 percent between 1993 and 2007

and land-based tourists by 757 percent from 1997 to 2007.

These trends have both negative and positive impacts on these regions. In the Arctic, the

more predictable tourism schedules offer more stability to local economies as opposed to

exhausting natural resources in response to fluctuating traffic. It also creates a steadier

market for art, native-manufactured goods, and services. In many cases, this includes the

more continual employ of local guides, pilots, charter boat crews, outfitters and suppliers.

However, many of the transport, tour and hotel corporations conducting tourism are

headquartered outside of these regions. Much of the capital paid by polar tourists to these

non-resident corporations consequently escapes the Arctic peoples.




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The Antarctic Treaty adopted the following recommendations to Parties of the Treaty in

response to these increasing numbers (GRID-Arendal, 2008):

Discourage or decline authorization for landings in Antarctica to vessels carrying more

than 500 people.

Coordinate not to allow more than one tourist vessel at any one site simultaneously.

Restrict the number of passengers ashore to less than 100 at any one time.

Social / Cultural Trends

While creating global economic benefits and new opportunities, the effects of environmental

change in the polar regions contribute to issues regarding access to food and resources, the

health and well-being of local populations, and cohesion of communities.

Rights of Indigenous Peoples

Arctic States manage the rights of indigenous peoples in varying ways. Partial sovereignty is

granted by Denmark to the Inuit-majority Greenland as a semi-autonomous country within

the Kingdom of Denmark, with its own self-rule government, with the possibility of declaring

full independence at any time. This method is also partially observed by Canada, with “First

Nations” granted rights in Haida Gwaii and the Inuit-majority territory of Nunavut, and by

the United States, with the tribal reservations in Alaska. The situation in Russia is far

different, with members of “linguistic minorities” (such as the Nenets, Khanty, and Chuchki)

grouped together without any special privileges. The exception to indigenous minority rights

among the Arctic States is Iceland, which has no indigenous population (Nelson, 2013).

Russia’s 2009 document Concept for the Sustainable Development of Small Indigenous

Population Groups of the North, Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Federation identifies

the serious social and economic problems facing these groups. Among these are the drastic

disparity of unemployment levels and life expectancy between indigenous peoples and other

residents of the RAZ. The same document states that the government’s goal is to foster

favorable conditions and raise the quality of life for these ethnic groups within Russia. Yet, to

date, implementation of this policy has fallen far short of its goals and brought censure by

Russia’s main indigenous organization, the Russian Association of Indigenous People of the

North, Siberia and the Far East (RAIPON). The Russian Ministry of Justice responded to

RAIPON’s calls for support from the UN and Arctic Council by suspending the group’s legal

registration and forcing a full reorganization of RAIPON leadership (Heininen, Sergunin, &

Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014).

The nomadic Sami people are a special case in terms of response from governments, as their

migrations span four nations. Their rights range from full recognition (Sweden and Norway),




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to acknowledgement as a minority without special rights (Finland), to no special status and

an identification as a “small minority people” (Russia) (Nelson, 2013).

Impacts of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples

The lives of indigenous peoples are affected greatly by environmental changes, including

climate change, food availability, food accessibility, personal safety and health. Thawing of

permafrost and erosion of sea ice threaten the infrastructure and location of many

indigenous groups; for example, 80 percent of Alaskan communities are at direct risk of

coastal erosion (Park, 2008). The most drastic example of this may be the Alaskan village of

Kivalina, where relocation made necessary by coastal erosion is expected to cost an

estimated $100 million USD (Stepien, 2014). The effects of these changes on the physical

environment have been linked by some researchers to individual health issues (International

Arctic Science Committee, 2010).

The ice is viewed as part of the home environment and a familiar space in areas where locals

regularly venture on it. In fact, regional icescapes are deeply ingrained with the people of

traditional Arctic communities. They pass age-old knowledge of the sea ice to new

generations through stories, careful training, and years of shared experiences – some

through elaborate vocabularies intended for the description of types of ice (Krupnik, 2014).

To these inhabitants of the north, the annual melting and refreezing of sea ice is an

established and necessary part of their seasonal cycle. The retreat of sea ice threatens the

livelihoods of communities built on subsistence resources. Such communities rely on the ice

for indispensable transportation and their traditional knowledge of Arctic species

distribution; hunters can no longer trust their experience in the face of drastically changing

conditions. As the cycle is altered, the daily lives and culture of people living on the ice will

need to change with it.

In some areas, changes to snow cover and thawing permafrost are of greater consequence

than receding sea ice. Reindeer herding, a traditional livelihood iconic in much of Arctic

Eurasia, faces challenges presented by diminishing availability of food for reindeer. The thaw

also has grave implications for water supplies, oil and gas pipelines, local roads, and human

health.

Issues of Health in the Arctic

The rapid and long-term cultural change which can result from the loss of traditional

activities and sources of livelihood like reindeer herding are attributed by some researchers

as possible sources of “psychological distress and mental health challenges” (International

Arctic Science Committee, 2010). These studies remain unclear on any connection between

social environments and individual health, yet they indicate some relation between social

positions and self-rated perception of health. Some studies suggest that the rapid changes in




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subsistence resources and availability of connected employment may be contributing to

mental health issues, suicide rates, and occurrence of violence (International Arctic Science

Committee, 2010). Ongoing and rapid change leading to social, economic, and cultural

transition are evident in community health, and likely to be accentuated as environmental

change continues in the future.

Higher temperatures improve the potential for new invasive species and vector-borne

diseases to survive in the polar regions for the first time (Stepien, 2014). A population that

once relied exclusively on gathering and hunting for subsistence now must worry about the

quality of meat and fish available, as well as fearing new parasites that were not previously

threats. Traditional cooking methods in the Arctic regions of Canada and the United States

do not kill certain parasites, which may increase their ability to cross to other animal hosts

and insect vectors, leading to new outbreaks (Nelson, 2013).

The enormous distances between populated areas also create health care delivery and

continuity and education/training challenges. In some regions, such as the Scandinavian-

Russian region across which the Sami traverse, cross-border cooperation to provide health

care is a necessary yet complicated situation. Furthermore, providing health care workers

sufficient for such widely distributed rural villages has encouraged other potential solutions

such as telenursing (delivering diagnoses and care via video conferencing), and distance

education and community-based vocational training initiatives are also on the rise (Nelson,

2013).

Participation of Indigenous Peoples

While increasing attention has been brought to issues related to climate change, the lack of

involvement from indigenous peoples results in overemphasis on some issues. For example,

policies for the protection of polar bears strikes an iconic image of preserving the Arctic,

while the traditional and cultural practice of hunting polar bears for subsistence among

indigenous communities has garnered little attention (Park, 2008). Indigenous leaders stress

the unfairness of such policies, since the peoples who contribute least to global climate

change are most affected by the impacts.

Among Arctic states demand for the involvement of indigenous peoples in the decision-

making process in the region has grown. Sentiment from within even the five coastal Arctic

states has swung to the position that the population of the High North must represent

themselves when it comes to dealing with matters affecting their communities. Figures from

2011 show that ten million people reside in the High North, including nearly 400 thousand

indigenous people (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). This

number is disputed by the six indigenous organizations that participate on the Arctic Council,

who claim that the number of indigenous people is nearly four times higher.




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Participation of Arctic indigenous peoples in recent years has been strengthened, particularly

in discussions of climate change, by the actions of the leaders of their organizations. The

Inuit Circumpolar Conference submitted a petition in 2005 to the Inter-American

Commission of Human Rights claiming that the United States had violated its peoples’

human rights by neglecting to take action aimed at decreasing CO2 emissions. Similarly, the

Arctic Athabascan Council accused Canada of violating Athabascan rights due to production

of black carbon and other pollutants contributing to air pollution (Stepien, 2014). Canada, in

particular, created a plan in 2007 to promote heightened sustainable development meeting

the needs of Inuit in Quebec. Parliament also earmarked federal funding in the past to assist

indigenous groups to better participate and seek to be engaged in the international dialogue

(Park, 2008) and a commitment to continue to support Indigenous Permanent Participant

organizations in Canada, to strengthen their capacity to fully participate in the activities of

the Arctic Council is articulated in Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy (Government of Canada,

2013).

Organizations representing the interests of indigenous peoples emphasize the resilience and

adaptability of their communities, stressing that they should not be viewed as defenseless

victims “on the verge of extinction”. New economic opportunities made available through

environmental change are embraced by Arctic states and corporations, although they do

introduce heightened pressures on traditional livelihoods. However, where indigenous

communities control their own lands, assumptions should not be made. Some communities

may be in favor of industrial development, seeing them as a way to address social, economic

and environmental change (Stepien, 2014).

Technological Trends

Several technological developments hold the promise of important and largely positive

changes for the Arctic and its people.

Telecommunications

Improved telecommunications capabilities in the polar regions have been recognized

globally as crucial to security, search and rescue capabilities, economic viability and social

improvement. Historically, communications satellites have flown in equatorial geostationary

orbits (GEO), positioning them far below the latitudinal limits of terminals in the Arctic. Lack

of signal strength and duration of service has led many to seek new solutions to the

telecommunications gap.

Space-based options for continual Arctic coverage include three satellites in 90-degree

inclined geosynchronous orbits; four satellites in medium-altitude elliptical orbits; three

satellites in “tundra” elliptical 63.4-degrees inclined geosynchronous orbits; or two satellites

in highly elliptical molniya orbits. The most efficient constellation for dedicated Arctic




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communications is the molniya configuration. However, because it is too costly to maintain a

spare satellite in each orbital plane – doubling the cost of such a project – a satellite failure

would result in a periodic gap in coverage that could take many months to remedy.

Nevertheless, the potential for deployment of a molniya constellation has been explored by

commercial businesses, and the space administrations of the United States, Canada, Russia,

and Norway. Initial estimates (circa 2011) suggested that polar-focused satellite

communications platforms (Arktika, PCW) would be available in 2017 (Smith, Wickman, &

Min, 2013).

Arctic Fibre Broadband Cable

Arctic Fibre, a Toronto-based firm, has launched a project to place a 15,600 kilometre

undersea fibre optic cable between Japan and the United Kingdom, through the Northwest

Passage (Arctic Fibre, 2013). Even though the main point of the project is to provide 24

terabit per second speed between two of the world’s busiest financial hubs, it would bring

quality telecommunications service to much of the north. In northern Canada, Internet

connections are currently provided by Anik F2, a Telesat Canada telecommunications

satellite. While households in Northern Canada are reportedly provided the Industry Canada-

minimum 5 megabits per second (Mbps) service, the reality is long delays and poor reliability

due to poor signal strength. Connection speeds in rural Alaska rarely top 3 Mbps (Nordrum,

2014).

The Arctic Fibre project would pass through seven Alaskan communities and more than 25

centres across Northern Canada. These connections would bring 57,000 Canadians and

26,500 Alaskans broadband access for the first time (Nordrum, 2014). Installing extra

branches to the main cable could connect as much as 98 percent of the population in

Nunavut and Nunavik. With the connections in place, Artic Fibre predicts service prices in

these remote communities could be cut by as much as 75 percent, with six to seven times as

much bandwidth as delivered under the current price (Nordrum, 2014).

Originally scheduled to have the cable in place by summer 2015, the company met difficulty

obtaining its full funding. The total cost has been estimated at US $850 million, a number

which Arctic Fibre officials once claimed would need government support to be economically

viable. Its initial attempts at lobbying the Canadian government were met with reluctance to

“back one private player, not others” (Press, 2014). This position suggests a lack of urgency,

even as the government itself projects its Northern bandwidth needs to increase by as much

as twelve-fold in the next decade.

Unable to secure orders from the Canadian government, the firm obtained support from

New York private equity firms (Byrne, 2014). The project was adjusted to begin in December

2015, with an estimated service start-up by the end of 2016. As the Arctic route for the cable




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is only ‘ice-free’ three months a year, this allows a very short window of time for installation

(and maintenance) of the cable sections (Byrne, 2014). All timelines for the project are

dependent on the ability of ships to enter and transit the Northwest Passage.

Fiber high speed internet/telephone cables are also connecting the Greenland capital Nuuk

to Iceland and Canada, and currently the fiber network is being extended to cover the larger

Western Greenland towns, vastly increasing the communication speeds on the present

backbone microwave chain along the Western Coast.

A high speed fiber link is also available in Svalbard, which was established in connection with

space downlink stations that service both ESA and NASA satellite missions.

Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) – Lockheed Martin Space Systems

Lockheed Martin announced in February 2015 that it was looking for international

partnerships to fund the construction of a sixth next-generation Ultra-High Frequency (UHF)

satellite. The aerospace company’s system, known as Mobile User Objective System (MUOS),

consists of four satellites in geosynchronous Earth orbit. According to Lockheed Martin, its

wideband payload, delivering secure voice and data transmissions similar to commercial

smartphone technology, provides a 16-times increase in transmission throughput over

legacy systems. Also unlike prior military systems, MUOS allows routing to and from any

radio terminal in the system regardless of which satellites are in view (Eggert, 2014).

Capability tests performed in 2013 demonstrated limited high arctic communications, with

voice and data signals reaching within 30 miles and 0.5 degrees latitude from the North Pole

(Cheng, 2014). Given its slightly inclined orbit, MUOS extends the temporal access of arctic

communications by about 4 hours over traditional geosynchronous communications

satellites. The new system could allow military users to traverse the globe using one radio,

without needing to switch devices because of different coverage areas (Lockheed Martin,

2014). Reports suggest the cost of a MUOS satellite to be approximately $311M USD,

excluding launch.

Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) Satellite - Canada

The Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) Satellite project aims to provide a solution to

the Canadian Armed Forces’ UHF SATCOM requirements and the gap in Wideband SATCOM

for the Canadian Arctic. A study was launched in 2008 by the Canadian Space Agency to

determine whether the proposed constellation of two satellites could provide similar

communications and weather imaging services to those available at lower latitudes. The

proposed mission has three main objectives (Canadian Space Agency, 2014):

Provide reliable, 24/7 high data rate communications services;

Monitor Arctic weather and climate change; and




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Monitor space weather.

The PCW system is seen as a priority space project by the Canadian government. The Prime

Minister’s Office has promoted expansion of Canada’s presence in the Arctic and the region’s

natural resources as important for the country’s economic development.

A summary of RFI responses delivered by January 2014 indicated that industry believed the

technical risks associated with the project to be acceptable and manageable. Consensus

indicated that the satellites’ weather payload would be the greatest limiting factor to any

proposed timelines, which estimated that desired capabilities could be delivered 5 to 6 years

after contract award (Boucher, 2015). As the mission is primarily intended to be a remote

sensing program, some concern has arisen that cost or weight-growth issues for the project

would lead to the communications package being downsized or dropped altogether (Smith,

Wickman, & Min, 2013). At the time the RFI was issued, full-scale development of the project

was desired to begin in November 2016 (Pugliese, 2014).

The final project team contracted to deliver the PCW Satellite system is led by Telesat, a

leading global satellite operator (Pugliese, 2014). Promising a “made-in-Canada” solution,

they teamed with MDA – a Canadian space system company that owns US-based

communications satellite manufacturer Space Systems Loral – and COM DEV, producer of

space systems and hardware in “80 percent of all communications satellites ever launched.”

The project was estimated at over $1.5B and, as of December 31, 2014, no additional

information on progress had been made public by the government (Boucher, 2015).

Arktika – Roskosmos

The concept of the Arktika project emerged in line with the Russian government’s “Arctic to

2020 and Beyond” policy. A key objective of this policy was the observation of the Russian

Arctic Zone as a cohesive region. The geographic extent of the RAZ means that it is difficult

to manage. Hence, the Russian Federation sought to address the issues of a broad and hard-

to-reach region through its space capabilities. The constellation would be a unique,

multipurpose network dedicated to monitoring the Arctic.

Under the proposed design, the system would be divided into four sub-systems, at least one

of which would always be present above the horizon to provide communications links.

Arktika-M satellites, fully funded from the Russian Federation’s space budget, would focus

on meteorology and emergency communications (Smith, Wickman, & Min, 2013). With an

apogee of 40,000 kilometres above the Earth’s surface and perigee of 1,000 kilometres,

frequent overflies of the polar regions would enable a practically uninterrupted view of the

northern hemisphere.




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Arktika-MS1 was to be a trio of commercially-funded satellites aimed at providing mobile

communications for the Polar Star network. A second trio of Arktika-MS2 craft would be

state-owned, with the aim of providing governmental communications, air-traffic control

and navigational services. The MS satellites would have an apogee of 50,000 kilometres and

take 24 hours for a complete revolution of the Earth. The final system, Arktika-R would be

focused on remote sensing capabilities in a sun-synchronous orbit extending from the North

to the South Pole (Zak & Pillet, 2013).

Each sub-system was to have its own ground station network. Five main centers would be

supplemented by more than 100 regional stations across the Federation to receive and

process data from the constellation. Roskosmos assigned NPO Lavochkin the contract,

valued at 5.368 billion rubles (approximately $79.4 million USD) for work until November

2015. Sources reporting the targeted first launch of Arktika satellites vary from 2015 to 2017

(Zak & Pillet, 2013) and the first Arktika-M satellite is currently scheduled for launch in

December 2015 (Microcom, 2015).

Iridium NEXT

Announced in 2007, the Iridium NEXT constellation aims to deliver high-quality voice and

significantly improved speeds and bandwidth for data over the entire planet’s surface,

including the polar regions. The unique Iridium constellation architecture will be maintained

– each satellite in space is linked to two others in the same orbital plane and one in each

adjacent plane of the constellation. This ‘mesh’ network routes communications traffic

among the satellites in the constellation to ensure a continuous connection everywhere, at

all times. Of special significance is the Iridium PRIME payload program conceived in tandem

with NEXT, which opens opportunities to include payloads that can leverage the

constellation’s power for non-communications applications (i.e. air traffic control and ship

tracking) (Iridium, 2015).

Like the existing constellation, Iridium NEXT will include 66 low-earth orbit (LEO)

communication satellites, with 6 in-orbit and 9 ground spares. The first Iridium NEXT satellite

is scheduled to be launched in October 2015 (Selding, 2015) with plans for the entire

constellation to be deployed by the end of 2017 (Iridium, 2015).

THOR 7

THOR 7 was successfully launched in April 2015 and injected into geostationary orbit. It is

Telenor Satellite Broadcasting’s first growth satellite, delivering satellite services for future

expansion requirements for all its markets. Its High Throughput Satellite (HTS) Ka-band

payload was specifically designed to deliver optimal coverage across Europe’s business

shipping lanes for the provision of maritime mobility VSAT services. Space Norway acquired a




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lifetime lease of THOR 7 use, providing Norway’s Troll research station in Antarctica with

increased satellite capacity for distribution of meteorological data (Telenor, 2015).

Personal Computing

Closely linked to (and dependent upon) telecommunications infrastructure is the use of

personal computing devices (i.e. laptops, tablets and smartphones) by Northerners. As the

penetration of this technology into Arctic communities continues to grow and EO-based

services become more and more accessible, residents and businesses will increase the use of

personal computing devices as a data consumption technology. However, as discussed in the

previous section deficiencies in current telecommunications capabilities is a significant

impediment to more widespread use of personal computing for activities such as citizen

science, planning of operations and travel, etc.

GNSS

Arctic navigation is becoming increasingly important, with mineral resource exploration,

shipping activity and tourism expeditions all on the rise. Integrity of navigational signals is

even more so, especially with respect to shipping, as an accident could be devastating to the

fragile ecosystem. GNSS systems require the aid of augmentation systems in order to meet

the demands for integrity and consistency in applications like dynamic positioning,

particularly in historically difficult geographies like the Arctic.

Although issues do arise with existing GNSS technology platforms in the Arctic, navigation is

possible. The geometry of existing satellite constellations’ orbital plane inclinations leave

them visible to high latitudes only at low elevation angles. While horizontal positioning is

possible, the absence of satellites overhead limits the possibility for vertical positioning (Gao,

Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011). Limitations of these systems’ use in Arctic applications is due in

part to their inclinations but also to increased ionospheric activity causing signal disruption.

That much of the Arctic region is at or beyond the periphery of signals broadcast from Space

Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS) further compounds this problem for the region

(Sundlisaeter, Reid, Johnson, & Wan, 2012).

Some governments have recognized the deficiencies with current positioning integrity

beyond 70 degrees north latitude. Canada, for example, committed $5.6 million over the

period from 2015 to 2019 to conduct reviews identifying enhancements to the Arctic marine

navigation system in place (Government of Canada, 2015). A number of options have been

proposed beyond new satellite acquisitions, including addition of more SBAS reference

stations, integration of Iridium and GNSS satellites, and use of multi-constellation GNSS (Gao,

Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011).

Global Positioning System (GPS) – United States




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The Global Positioning System is the most widely used GNSS. It is comprised of 31

operational satellites, offering coverage from at least 8 satellites at any time; each satellite

orbits the Earth twice daily. Satellites in the GPS are in MEO (20,200 km altitude) orbital

planes inclined at 55 degrees with respect to the equator. Improvements to the system have

been ongoing through the GPS modernization program, offering better accuracy and

reliability. The next generation of GPS, GPS III, will involve 8 satellites being launched and

secured at the same orbital inclination as the former systems. The developer, Lockheed

Martin, claims that along with an additional civilian signal, the constellation will deliver

increased accuracy and global coverage through heightened signal strength (Lockheed

Martin, 2014).

GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS) - Russia

The Russian GLONASS constellation complements and provides an alternative to the United

States’ GPS. Its 24 operational satellites provide global coverage, with 5 satellites visible at

any one time; each satellite orbits the Earth twice daily. GLONASS satellites are also in MEO

(19,100 km altitude) orbital planes, however they are inclined at 64.8 degrees to the

equator. The GLONASS space segment modernization project focuses on delivering double

the original system’s accuracy. As of November 2014, two new GLONASS-K1 satellites had

been placed in orbit. While the initial plan was to launch only these two and then move on to

a GLONASS-K2 generation of satellites, this plan has stalled. Nine additional K1 satellites

were to be commissioned as sanctions prevented the delivery of radiation-resistant

electronic components required for the K2s (GPS World, 2014). Launch of the first K2

satellite is planned for 2018 (GPS World, 2015).

Galileo – Europe

When fully deployed, Galileo will consist of 24 operational satellites with six in-orbit spares

and be interoperable with GPS and GLONASS. Like GPS, Galileo satellites will be in MEO

(23,222 km altitude) orbital planes, with inclinations of 56 degrees to the equator. When

fully operational, Galileo navigation signals are expected to provide quality coverage for

latitudes as high as 75 degrees north and beyond – corresponding to Europe’s northernmost

terrestrial extents. Since October 2011, four pairs of satellites have been launched and made

operational. The next pair is planned for September 2015 with another launch scheduled

before 2016. The European Space Agency’s plan is to have initial services available by the

end of 2016; system completion is planned for 2020 (European Space Agency, 2015).




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Space-Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS)

The lack of adequate integrity coverage in the far North is also due in part to the coverage

extended by the Space-Based Augmentation Systems7 currently in operation. This gap in

meaningful service for the Arctic region can be attributed to too few reference stations being

available in the systems’ ground segment (Gao, Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011). Further

opportunities for improvement are being researched through the support of 17 European

Space Agency Member States and Canada under the European GNSS Evolution Programme.

It is expected that expansion and adoption of dual-frequency will be incorporated into

EGNOS by 2020 (European Space Agency, 2015).

Even with improvements to global SBAS systems, the use of geostationary satellites is not

ideal for GNSS signals broadcast to the Arctic regions. As of 2012, problems such as errors in

position solutions were registered at latitudes higher than 72 degrees north. LEO satellites

provide an opportunity for more continuous connectivity in areas where the equatorial

geostationary satellites cannot. It has been proposed that the existing Iridium network could

be a suitable supplementary method for broadcasting SBAS messages in the Arctic. The

orbital design of Iridium satellites ensures high-elevation visibility in the Arctic, making the

constellation a strong candidate to enable SBAS linkage (Gao, Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011).

Automatic Identification System (AIS)

Entering into force in 1980, the International Maritime Organization’s Safety of Life at Sea

(SOLAS) Convention is generally regarded as the most important international treaty

concerning the safety of ships. Specifying the minimum standards for construction,

equipment and operation of ships, the Convention has been amended numerous times to

modernize required safety standards regarding each of these aspects. Amendments made

between 2000 and 2002 mandated ships to carry automatic identification systems (AIS)

(International Maritime Organization, 2013). The updated SOLAS Conventions require, as of

2002, all passenger ships and cargo ships of at least 300 gross tonnage to be fitted with AIS

transponders (exactEarth, 2010). Until the mid-2000s, AIS was designed as a high intensity,

short-range identification and tracking network between other nearby ships and land-based

AIS base stations.

exactEarth

Cambridge, Ontario-based exactEarth launched its AIS satellite into a polar LEO plane in

2008. Within a 12-hour period, the satellite is capable of observing every point on the planet,

observing each pole every 100 minutes through its north-south orbit. As of 2014, the

7 The United States’ Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay

Service (EGNOS), the Russian System of Differential Correction and Monitoring (SDCM), and Japan’s MTSAT Satellite-based Augmentation System (MSAS)




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exactView constellation includes seven satellites. Two launches are scheduled for fall 2015,

which will include an equatorial satellite aimed at significantly improving global revisit times.

ExactEarth’s stated objective is to achieve and maintain a global revisit time of less than 90

minutes (exactEarth, 2015).

The company announced a partnership in 2015 with the Harris Corporation that enables the

exactView RT platform. The system will be comprised of 58 fully reprogrammable, hosted

payloads on satellites in the Iridium NEXT constellation. With the first scheduled launch in

early 2016, the system is expected to be complete by 2017. This new architecture will enable

persistent global coverage with revisit times less than one minute, providing continuous

signal tracking capability in real-time over “the complete maritime domain” (exactEarth,

2015).

ORBCOMM

ORBCOMM also launched its LEO satellites aimed at providing AIS services and messaging

capabilities in 2008. This first generation constellation was comprised of approximately 30

satellites, making passes that accommodated view of vessels between 9 and 12 hours a day.

The ground segment includes 15 stations strategically placed around the world, providing

access to the satellite constellation and interface capability with public and private data

networks. This system provides daily tracking information for over 120,000 vessels.

The American company launched its next iteration, a $230 million network expansion, with

six OG2 satellites in July 2014. Twelve more satellites were scheduled to be placed in orbit by

the end of 2015. ORBCOMM claimed these next-generation satellites would each be the

“equivalent of six” of their predecessors, providing increased network capacity and improved

coverage at higher latitudes. OG2 satellite passes are estimated to create vessel visibility in a

range of 15 to 22 hours (ORBCOMM, 2014).

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration defines an unmanned aircraft system as “the unmanned

aircraft (UA) and all of the associated support equipment, control station, data links,

telemetry, communications and navigation equipment, etc., necessary to operate the

unmanned aircraft.” (FAA, 2015). In the context of environmental information collection in

the polar regions, the “system” includes the onboard sensor package.

Given the remoteness, severe weather, and lack of infrastructure to support science

missions in the polar regions, collecting the data for analysis of the changes in the regions

has been extremely difficult and UAS provides a potential solution to these problems. The

use of UAS for environmental research in the Arctic began in 1999 with research conducted

by the University of Colorado (Crowe & al, 2012). A number of organizations are making

active use of UAS for polar research. For example, NOAA believes that “There is a key




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information gap today between instruments on Earth's surface and on satellites - UAS can

bridge that gap.” (NOAA, 2016). Sponsored projects include: Deep Freeze 2016 (with USCG);

Arctic Aerial Calibration Experiments (2016); Arctic Shield with U.S. Coast Guard (2013, 2014

and 2015); Arctic Scan Eagle (Chuckchi Sea) (2015); and Marginal Ice Zone

EXperiment (2013). In November 2015, the British Antarctic Survey released a tender to

acquire a UAV for use in Antarctica, with a first scientific mission carried out in 2017

(Stevenson, 2015).

Deployment of UAS for data collection in the Arctic is not without challenges, a significant

one of which is gaining access to airspace to fly science missions. Since each Member State

that provides air traffic services in their respective areas of influence in the Arctic apply their

own domestic civil aviation regulations to their respective Flight Information Region (FIR),

determining what the rules for access may be is a daunting one, since the rules change as an

aircraft passes from one FIR into the next (Crowe & al, 2012). The AMAP UAS Expert Group is

advocating a harmonized regulatory approach. COMNAP is assessing the practical benefits of

UAS application to operations and logistics in the Antarctic region and the risks to human

safety and the built environment in the Antarctic region (Finnemore, 2015).

Sub-sea Oil and Gas Platforms

The Arctic holds an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 per

cent of its undiscovered oil according to a 2009 estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey.

Although the current oversupply of oil on the world market has brought Arctic exploration to

a virtual standstill, energy analysts remain bullish on the long-term prospects for production

of these resources. To reduce the risks of energy exploration and production due to extreme

weather conditions, sea ice and icebergs in the Arctic efforts are underway to move from

vulnerable floating platforms to equipment installed directly on the sea floor (Sorenson,

2013). Statoil built the world’s first subsea separation, boosting and injection system in its

Tordis field in Norway’s North Sea in 2007 and they are now working on one of the next

steps: subsea compression (Eldridge, 2013). Statoil expects a sea-floor compression system

to increase its recovery from their Mikkel and Midgard reservoirs by 280 million barrels of oil

equivalent.

Sub-sea Mining

Deep sea mining involves the extraction of minerals such as copper, gold, iron, manganese,

lead, zinc and nickel from the seafloor using remotely operated vehicle techniques which

extract deposits from the seabed using mechanical or pressurised water drills (Allsopp & al,

2013). There are no operating deep sea mines, but the International Seabed Authority (ISA),

an autonomous intergovernmental body that organises, controls and administers mineral

resources beyond the limits of national jurisdiction, has so far approved 17 exploration

contracts. None of this exploration is in the Polar Regions.

http://uas.noaa.gov/shout/NOAA%20USCGC%20Healy%20UAS%20Test%20Plan%20and%20Operational%20Assessment%202015%20070915.pdf




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The Australian-Canadian company Nautilus Minerals, which has the most advanced project,

the Solwara 1 Project within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Papua New Guinea, is planning

commencement of mining operations in the first quarter of 2018 (Ferris, 2015). Their

technological approach involves the use of three machines, which will be operated remotely

from control rooms on a ship. The ship will be connected to a central pumping system that

will pipe minerals upward. An auxiliary cutter grinds down the seafloor to make it level

enough for the second piece of equipment, the bulk cutter, which grinds the resulting slurry

up fine enough for the collection machine to suck it and send it to a ship. On the ship, the

sea water is separated from the rock, particles larger than 8 microns are filtered out and the

water is pumped back to the seafloor.

Remote Health Care Delivery

Remote health care delivery (or telemedicine and telehealth) promises increased

affordability and accessibility of health care, and the reduction of distance and time barriers

to quality care. In few regions of the world is telehealth more necessary than in the Arctic,

where large distances, sparse populations, limited infrastructure, cultural conflicts and a lack

of local skilled professionals combine to limit access to health care (Exner-Pirot, 2015).

However, progress on the use of electronic information and telecommunications

technologies to support long-distance health care in the Arctic has been modest. For

example, Norway is known for early adoption of telemedicine services (in the early 1990s) to

serve the population living in rural and remote areas in the Arctic. Telemedicine services

include: telecardiology, teleobstetrics/prenatal telemedicine services, teleemergency

service, teleoncology, teleendocrinology, telesurgery and telepsychiatry, among many others

(Walderhaug & al, 2015). The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium uses some of the

world’s most innovative telehealth devices to connect rural health providers and facilities,

and reached the milestone of 100,000 telehealth cases in 2011 (Exner-Pirot, 2015). And a

new partnership between the SickKids’s Tele-Link Mental Health Program in Toronto, Canada

with the Government of Nunavut established a telepsychiatry program that connects the

hospital’s psychiatrists with at-risk Inuit of all ages who are considering suicide (MacDonald,

2014).




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APPENDIX 5: STEERING COMMITTEE OF EXPERT ADVISORS

Name Organization

John Falkingham International Ice Charting Working Group

Andrew Fleming British Antarctic Survey

René Forsberg Danish Technical University

Tiina Kurvits GRID - Arendal

Peter Pulsifer National Snow and Ice Data Center

Jan-René Larsen Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program

Duke Snider The Nautical Institute




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APPENDIX 6: ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED

Aker Arctic Technology Inc.

Alfred Wegener Institute

Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Working Group - AC

Arctic Research Consortium of the United States

Arctic Science Partnership

ArcticNet

Asiaq Greenland Survey

Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators

Australian Antarctic Division

British Antarctic Survey

Canadian Coast Guard (Search and Rescue)

Canadian Cryospheric Information Network

Canadian Shipping Company

C-CORE

Chevron Arctic Centre

Circumpolar Conservation Union

Coalition of Legal Toothfish Operators

Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources

Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Biodiversity Working Group - AC

Danish Energy Agency

Danish Meteorological Institute

Danish Technical University

European Fisheries Control Agency

European Maritime Safety Agency

Finnish Geospatial Research Institute

Finnish Ministry of Defence

International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators

International Ice Charting Working Group

International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic

Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska

MET Norway

NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Office / SSAI




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National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado

Norwegian Meteorological Institute

Norwegian Polar Institute

Polar Bears International

Polar Geospatial Center

Research Data Alliance (U.S.)

Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research

Shell Global

Southern Ocean Observing System / Association of Polar Early Career Scientists

State Research Center Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute

Stockholm University

Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks

The Nautical Institute

UK Met Office

WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Project

ZAMG - Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik




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D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Report · 1.1 David Arthurs PVEO November, 2015...

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