D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region
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Transcript of D ecadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region
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Climate Forecasting Unit
Decadal climate prediction in the Mediterranean region
Virginie Guemas (1,2), Javier García-Serrano (1,3), Annarita Mariotti (4), Francisco Doblas-Reyes (1,5), Louis-Philippe Caron (1,6)
1 - Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain2 - Centre Nacional de Recherches Météorologiques, Groupe d’Etude de
l’Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, France3 - Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, UPMC, Paris, France4 - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Program Office,
Silver Spring, USA5 - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain6 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
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Climate Forecasting Unit
Mediterranean climate
To which extent will natural variability enhance or reduce externally-forced changes and for how long?
Mediterranean region = one of the most sensitive to climage change in terms of warming and drying (Mariotti et al. 2008) --> Source of predictability
During the 20th century, decadal variability has modulated the climate change signal in the Mediterranean region (Mariotti and Dell’Aquila, 2012)
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Climate Forecasting Unit
AMV skill
Skill in predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is enhanced by initialization
From García-Serrano et al. (2013), AMV = North Atlantic mean SST (80W-0, 0-60N) - global mean SST (60S-60N)
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Climate Forecasting Unit
AMO-related predictability
Strong connection between summer temperatures and AMO, weaker link in winter
DJF JJA
Observational AMO-temperature correlation patterns
From Mariotti and Dell’Aquila (2012)
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Climate Forecasting Unit
Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5
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Skill in annual temperature from CMIP5
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Climate Forecasting UnitO
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Correlation annual temperature-AMV from CMIP5
Forecast years 6-9Forecast years 2-5