D D Leading People. Leading Organizations. HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK 113 TH CONGRESS &...

D

Leading People. Leading Organizations.

HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK

113TH CONGRESS & OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

Government Affairs CLA Webinar

Michael P. Aitken, Vice President, SHRM Government AffairsOctober 9, 2013

HR Public Policy / Washington Outlook


EnvironmentAmericans See Current Shutdown as More Serious Than in 1995

October 4, 2013

2



Presidency

3

President Obama Job Approval



Congress

4

Congress’ Job Approval Falls to 11% Amid Government Shutdown

October 7, 2013


Leading People. Leading Organizations. 5

Shutdowns (Mostly) Shortened After Legal Interpretation Changed

Source: Clinton T. Brass, “Shutdown of the Federal Government: Causes, Processes, and Effects,” Congressional Research Service, Aug. 6, 2013; Pete Williams, “This would be 18th government shutdown in U.S. History,” NBC News, April 8, 2011.

Analysis• Between 1976 and 1979, the government shut down 6 times for an average of 11 days each time• A 1980 ruling by then-Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti provided a more strict interpretation of the Antideficiency Act as it relates to

shutdowns, raising the stakes; between 1981-1990, shutdowns were still frequent, but shorter, averaging 3 days in length • A showdown between President Bill Clinton and Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich led to a 5-day shutdown in Nov. 1995

and a 21-day shutdown between Dec. 1995 and Jan. 1996, with an estimated $1.4 billion price tag; since then, the government has tried to avoid another costly, politically perilous shutdown.

Length, in Days, of Government Shutdowns Since 1976



Tax and Benefits

Fiscal Train Wreck:• Federal Government shut down on October 1.• Better than anticipated deficit outlook but debt ceiling will be reached

in the next few weeks (Mid October to October, 31).• Sequestration for 2014 will trigger $109 billion worth of cuts this year

in both discretionary and mandatory spending.

Possible Outcomes:• Short-term deal that leads to a “Grand Bargain” or federal

budget/debt deal• Long-term deal that includes a “Grand Bargain” or federal

budget/debt deal• No Deal = Default and financial chaos

2013 Fall Public Policy AgendaOverview

6



The Debt Ceiling Crisis, as the Titanic

TakeawayThe 2013 debt ceiling crisis puts hundreds of federal programs and benefits in danger of delayed or discontinued funding,

and puts the U.S. at risk of a credit downgrade.

Treasury Defaults Unprecedented default could

cause value of dollar to drop and freeze credit markets

Debt Ceiling

Extraordinary Measures FailBetween October 18 and November 5, Treasury predicts it will have exhausted

extraordinary measures

Treasury

Treasury

Federal Programs Rely on Limited Cash and Daily Revenue to Survive

Treasury not prepared to fund all programs with these reserves, but no “women and children first” protocol is in place

Sources: Congressional Research Service, 2013; Annie Lowrey, “Shutdown vs. Default: The Relative Impact,” The New York Times, September 23, 2013; Jake Sherman, “Jack Lew: Debt Limit

No Later Than Oct. 17,” Politico, September 25, 2013.

Treasury Able to Fund Federal ProgramsEarlier this year Treasury had sufficient funds to keep federal

programs and benefits afloat

U.S. Hits Debt CeilingThe U.S. hit its $16.7 billion debt ceiling in May, but Treasury has been able to stay the course by relying — temporarily —

on “extraordinary measures”

$



Budget Primer: Spending Tax and Benefit Issues

8



Long Term Deal Might Include:

• Tax Reform • Entitlement Reform• Delay in PPACA• Extension of the debt limit• Federal budget funding for 2014

2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda Overview

9



Passing New Immigration Law is Important to AmericansJuly 11, 2013

Overview

10



Immigration Reform

President named “Comprehensive Immigration Reform” as one of his top five priorities.

Current environment still presents the best chance of comprehensive immigration reform in over 30 years however; other domestic/international issues will likely push final resolution to next year.

Senate passed the comprehensive Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act in June.

Slim hope for a Bipartisan “Group of 5” in the House to move a comprehensive bill but House more likely to consider a series of “focused” bills late fall.

The SHRM/ACIP partnership is part of the dialogue and advocacy effort.

2013 Fall Public Policy AgendaOverview

11



Labor and Employment

Obama and Congressional Democrats have advocated for increasing the minimum wage and passing the Paycheck Fairness Act although major labor-management legislation unlikely to move through Congress.

However, agency activity has increased at DOL and we anticipate activity from EEOC. Regulatory activity in 2013 includes:

• Final Affirmative Action Regulations – 503/ Veterans• DOL proposed a survey on worker misclassification• Proposed Persuader Regulation• Implementation of SEP by EEOC

Full NLRB Board will mean increased regulatory activity:

• Quickie Election Rule ??? / Specialty Health Care / D.R. Horton

2013 Fall Public Policy Agenda

12

Overview




Workplace Flexibility

Advocates continue to push expansion of FMLA/paid sick leave at state and local level but enactment at federal level impossible.

Obama Administration’s focus on workflex will continue. Successful efforts on “comp time” in the House unlikely to

translate to the Senate.

13

Overview




Health Care Reform

Efforts to delay regulatory or amend PPACA legislatively in 2013 may be more possible.

Congressional oversight and regulatory guidance continues. Tax-deferred status of health care benefits could become a

target in tax reform. Focus on implementation on individual enrollment that

began on October 1.

14

Overview



Health Care Reform Issues



Two in Three Uninsured Americans Plan to Buy InsuranceHealth Care Reform Issues

17



Michael P. AitkenVice President, Government Affairs

[email protected]

+1-703-535-6027

1800 Duke StreetAlexandria, VA 22314

17

D D Leading People. Leading Organizations. HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK 113 TH CONGRESS &...

Documents

Transcript of D D Leading People. Leading Organizations. HR PUBLIC POLICY / WASHINGTON OUTLOOK 113 TH CONGRESS &...