Cyclone Warning System : An OvervieOut of 80 forming over the globe, five form over north Indian...
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Transcript of Cyclone Warning System : An OvervieOut of 80 forming over the globe, five form over north Indian...
Major Natural Disasters on the region
Disaster Life Period
Floods - Days
Earthquakes - Second/Minutes
Cyclones - Days
Droughts - Months
Landslides - Days
Avalanches - Days
Heat/Cold waves - Days/Weeks
Tsunami - Minutes/ Hours
Thunderstorm - Minutes/ Hours
Climatology of tropical storms and
cyclones
Average annual number (1970-2000) of tropical storms/cyclones over each ocean basin (average around the globe : 84 TS / 44 TC) and average track of the disturbances
F. Roux, 2006
Classification of Cyclonic disturbances Over the
Indian Seas Low pressure system Maximum sustained winds
Low < 17 knots
Depression 17 – 27 kts
Deep Depression 28 – 33 kts
Cyclonic storm 34 – 47 kts
Severe Cyclonic storm 48 – 63 kts
Very Severe Cyclonic storm 64 – 89 kts
Extremely Severe Cyclonic storm 90 – 119 kts
Super Cyclonic storm 120 kts & above
Damage due to Cyclone ‘Phailin’ over Odisha
Districts Affected:
Angul Balasore, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttak, Ganjapati, Ganjam,
Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Kamdhamal, Kendrapara, Keonjhar, Khurda,
Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Nayagarh, Puri
Block Affected (Nos.) : 151
GPs Affected(Nos.) : 2015
Village Affected(Nos.) : 18117
ULB Affected (Nos.) : 43
Population Affected (Nos.) due to flood & cyclone : 12396065
Human Casualty due to cyclone : 21
Human Casualty due to flood : 17
Crop area affected (hect) : 668268
Person evacuated due to cyclone : 983642
Person evacuated due to flood : 171083
Cattle evacuated : 31062
House damaged : 419052
Out of 80 forming over the
globe, five form over north
Indian Ocean
Ratio of TCs between Bay of
Bengal and Arabian Sea – 4:1
Year to year variation - Quite
large.
Bay of Bengal is a vast warm
pool adjoining the warm pool of
the western North Pacific.
The ocean currents in the Bay of
Bengal are quite complex.
The bathymetry of this coast is
also very complex due to a
number of rivers, deltaic regions
and orography
More than 75% of the cyclones
causing 5000 or more human
deaths have occurred over this
region
Cyclones over NIO
Cyclone Mitigation Measures Reduction of cyclone disasters depends on several factors including
hazard analysis,
vulnerability analysis,
preparedness & planning,
early warning and mitigation.
The early warning is a major component as evident from a survey
conducted for the south Asian region.
The early warning component includes
skill in monitoring and prediction of cyclone,
effective warning products generation and dissemination,
coordination with emergency response units and
the public perception about the credibility of the official
predictions and warnings.
•
• Established in 1973
• Members
Bangladesh
India
(RSMC, New-Delhi)
Maldives
Myanmar
Oman
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Thailand
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones
Responsibilities of RSMC – New Delhi
1) Round the clock watch over the entire North Indian Ocean.
2) Analysis and processing of global meteorological data for diagnostic
and prediction purposes.
3) Detection, tracking and prediction of cyclonic storms in the NIO.
4) Running of numerical models for tropical cyclone track and intensity
prediction.
5) Issue of Tropical Weather Outlook once daily (at 0600 UTC) and an
additional outlook at 1700 UTC in the event of a depression which is likely
to intensify into a cyclonic storm.
6) Issue of cyclone advisories to the Panel countries 8 times a day.
Responsibilities of RSMC – New Delhi ...
7) Issue of storm surge advisories.
8) Implementation of the Regional Cyclone Operational Plan of
WMO/ESCAP Panel.
9) Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonic
storms viz. wind, storm surge, pressure, rainfall, satellite information etc.
10)Exchange of composite data and bulletins pertaining to cyclonic
storms with Panel countries.
11)Preparation of comprehensive reports on each cyclonic storm.
12)Continued research on storm surge, track and intensity prediction
techniques.
Monitoring and Forecast Process of Tropical Cyclone
Action
Runs of different Models,
Consecutive runs from the same model,
Ensemble runs ("choosing the best member")
Numerical forecasts
Model Decision maker
Numerical forecasts
End forecast
Initial conditions (Observations)
Forecaster Model
Model runs
Numerical forecasts
Broad Classification of
Observations
Surface
Upper Air
Space Based
• Pilot Balloon
• RSRW
• Profiler
• Ground Based RADAR
• Aircraft
• Geoststionary Satellites
• Polar Orbiting Satellites
• AWS
• ARG
• SYNOP
• BUOYS
• AVIATION
• SHIPS
Monitoring and
Forecast Process
INSAT-
3D
INSAT-3D launched on 26th July, 2013
Payloads on INSAT-3D Satellite
• Six Channel Imager
• 19 Channel Sounder
• Data Relay Transponder
• Satellite Aided Search and Rescue (SAS & R) Transponder.
Spectral Band
Wave length (µm)
Ground Resolution
Visible 0.55-0.75 1 km
SWIR 1.55-1.70 1 km
MIR 3.80-4.00 4km
WV 6.50-7.10 8km
TIR1 10.2-11.3 4km
TIR2 11.5-12.5 4km
INSAT-3D Satellite Imager Channel Specification
Radars India :
All radars are centrally connected to data servers at Delhi for data
conversion to NetCDF, BUFR and distribution to user community (
NCMRWF, IITM, INCOIS, IAF, and IMD use at NWP, Synergy etc)
Radar data are used in models:
GIS based systems overlays the radar products on Google Maps
Central server generates composites
Radar products are available to neighbouring countries also through
website.
Other WMO/ESCAP Panel countries :
DWR in Bangladesh are utilised
Global Data Dissemination
Centre
WMO WIS (WMO Information System) programme, Global Information System Centre (GISC) installed at IMD Pune.
GISC implementation has uplifted IMD status from Regional to Global data dissemination centre.
• Other achievements in Telecom
• Launch website
• www.indiaweather.gov.in
• www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in
• Upgradation of Internet
• Internet bandwidth to 100 Mbps
during cyclone ‘Hudhud’ resulted
in failure free service
• NKN connectivity
• Video conferencing System
• Future Plan
• Centralized GIS Based Content
managed Website
• Upgradation of IMD LAN at HQ
• Expansion of NKN.
• Upgradation of National VPN links
• Replacement of Old AMSS
CYBER-2000U 1994 ~ 2009
1st Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
25 Mflops/10GB
Models: LAM (110 km)/QLM (40 km)
2nd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
14 Tflops/200TB
Models: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
IBM P6/P574
24 nodes 2009 ~
3rd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
100 Tflops/600TB Models: GFS (23 km), WRF (9/3 km), HWRF (9/3 km)
IBM iDataPlex-X series
300 nodes 2014 ~
×7
IMD’s HPC Resource & Model Changes
×56
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Modeling :
Backbone for Early Warnings
Ensemble Pred. Tools
120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h
Global Models
Regional Models
Nowcasting Tools
Global models
Regional models
Multi-model ensemble, Single Model
Ensemble, Grand Global Ensemble
Warnings Activities
Nowcasting
Seasonal Prediction of Cyclogenesis
Deterministic forecast for 2014 (Pattanaik et al, 2014)
The deterministic forecast for frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances over the
Bay of Bengal during October-December season is 2.9 against the normal
frequency of 3.4. Thus, there is a tendency of below normal cyclonic
disturbances during 2014 post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal.
Genesis Probability : Short Range Forecast
• SOP for Genesis Forecast
• Input :
• Observations (mainly satellite based) for synoptic and environmental
conditions
• NWP models
• Dynamical statistical guidance
• The official forecast is based on a consensus forecast determined
from NWP, synoptic, environmental, statistical and dynamical-
statistical inputs.
• It provides probability of cyclogenesis during next 72 hrs based on
the observations at 0300 UTC of everyday and issued at 0600 UTC.
• This probabilistic forecast is issued in terms of nil, low, fair, moderate
and high probability corresponding to 0, 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-
100% probability of occurrence.
• It commenced since 01 June 2014
TC track and intensity forecasting methods i) Statistical Techniques
Analogue, Persistence, Climatology, CLIPER
i) Synoptic Techniques – Empirical Techniques
ii) Satellite Techniques Techniques
iii) Radar Techniques
v) NWP Models
• Individual models (Global and regional)
• IMDGFS (574), NCMRWF (574), ARP (MeteoFrance), ECMWF, JMA,
UKMO, NCEP, WRF (IMD, IITD, IAF), HWRF (IMD), QLM
• MME (IMD) and MME based on Tropical Cyclone Module (TCM)
• EPS (Strike probability, Location specific probability :
• NCMRWF and TIGGE products are available
R&D is required for
Development of EPS of regional models
Utilisation of EPS
Development of Cone of Uncertainty based on EPS
vi)
Dynamical Statistical Models for
Cyclone Prediction:
STEP-IV
Cyclogenesis
Prediction
Track
Prediction
Intensity
Prediction
Rapid
Intensificatio
n
Decay after
Landfall
Decay Model
RI-Index
SCIP Model
Multimodel
Ensemble(MME)
Genesis Potential
Parameter(GPP)
STEP-I
STEP-II
STEP-III
STEP-V
Quadrant wind radii monitoring
• Inputs: NOAA-NESDIS multi-platform
wind products and analysis field of
the model closest to the
observational analysis
• The wind radii forecasts are issued
over the sea area only as per the
requirement of the users.
• Basis : NWP models adjusted to
initial conditions
• Plan : to include the wind radii
analysis information in best track
parameters from 2015
28 kt
34 kt
50 kt
64 kt
Northeast Northwest
Southwest Southeast
Disastrous weather forecasting:
Technological limitations and
capabilities
Storm Surge prediction -
Nomograms, IITD model
INCIOS Coastal Inundation Model
Strong wind
Satellite, DWR Method, Climatology
NWP (global and regional models)
Heavy rainfall
Synoptic method, Climatological
method
Satellite, Radar and NWP Method
Raingauge and satellite based
merged rainfall analysis Accumulated rainfall (8-14 Oct, 2013
with track of Phailin showing rainfall
belt shift during landfall
Rainfall Monitoring
Technology for Decision Support System for Early Warning
Global plotting Conditional plotting Profile
Gauges
Plane trajectories
Radar
Satellite
Hazard specific
DSS Module
Phailin Forecast Verification Forecast Wind
Lead Time (Hrs) Landfall Point Error (km) Landfall Time Error (hrs)
12 3 3 hr delay
24 13 3 hr delay
36 5 3 hr delay
48 11 3 hr delay
60 2 3 hr delay
72 6 01 hr early
84 41 01 hr early
Forecast Products:
Lead
Time(h
)
Landfall
Point
Error
(km)
Landfall
Time
Error
(hours)
19 10 0 h
31 20 0 h
43 17 4 h early
55 04 4 h early
67 08 3 h early
79 02 1 h early
91 24 3 h early
103 40 3 h early
Observed and |Forecast Track of cyclone, HUDHUD based on 1200UTC of 09.October 2014 (67 hours before landfall)
As predicted, Landfall took place around 0700 UTC of 12 October 2014 with wind speed of 170-180 gusting to 195 kmph. Reported wind at Visakhapatnam=180 kmph
Observed Track
Forecast Track
Cyclone, HUDHUD: Forecast Performance of IMD
Advances in Cyclone Forecasting : Improvement in Track
forecast accuracy (2010-14)
050
100150200250300350400450500550
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
12 hr forecast error(km)24 hr forecast error (km)36 hr forecast error (km)48 hr forecast error (km)60 hr forecast error (km)72 hr forecast error (km)Linear (12 hr forecast error(km))
Lead Period
(hrs) No. of forecasts
verified Average track forecast error
(km) Skill (%)
12 236 61.7 39
24 208 106.8 46
36 172 132.0 57
48 146 164.6 62
60 117 188.9 67
72 92 230.1 68
Advances in Cyclone Forecasting : Improvement in landfall
point orecast (2010-14)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
12 hr24 hr36 hr48 hr60 hr72 hrLinear (12 hr)
Lead Period
(hrs) No. of systems
verified Average Landfall Point
Error (km) Average Landfall Time
Error (hrs)
12 14 31.6 1.8 24 14 58.5 3.4
36 13 81.6 5.0
48 12 85.7 4.4
60 11 76.9 3.5
72 8 108.5 1.8
Intensity forecast skill (%) Improvement (2010-14) Advances in Cyclone Forecasting :
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Skill (%) of maximum sustained surface wind forecast based on absolute error compared to persistence forecast
error
12 hr 24 hr Linear (12 hr) Linear (24 hr)
Lead Period
(hrs)
No. of forecasts
verified
Absolute Intensity
Forecast Error (kt)
Root mean square Intensity
Forecast Error (kt)
12 247 7.3 9.8
24 219 11.1 14.3
36 182 14.2 18.0
48 152 15.8 19.8
60 122 16.2 19.3
72 95 17.7 21.4
Telephone, Tele-fax
Mobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network,
Agromet Network, INCOIS network
VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless
Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System
Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network
Global telecommunication system (GTS) : (International
Telecom centres)
Internet (e-mail),
ftp
Websites, Dedicated website for cyclone
(rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in
Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio,
Private TV) : Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters
Cyclone Warning Dissemination Mechanism
Launch of dedicated website on 4 April 2014
Text -2 Here
Dissemination to member countries
Regular updating of RSMC website with latest bulletins and
graphics.
Bulletins are disseminated through email also in addition to GTS
E-mail IDs and focal point addresses are updated every year
before the start of the cyclone season.
Telephonic communication is also used as and when required.
RSMC New Delhi appreciates the cooperation extended by the
member countries in this regard.
Coordination with ACWCs and CWCs
BULLETINS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ACWCS AND CWCS
Four stage cyclone warning
Sea area bulletin
Coastal weather bulletin
Bulletins for Indian navy
Fisheries warnings
Port warnings
Aviation warning
Bulletins for departmental
exchanges
Bulletins for AIR/
Doordarshan/ press
CWDS bulletins
Warnings for registered/
designated users.
1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to Cabinet
Secretary and Senior Officials indicating
formation of a cyclonic disturbance –
potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone
and the coastal belt likely to be affected.
2. Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs in
advance indicating expected adverse
weather conditions.
3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrs
in advance indicating latest position of
Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and point
of landfall, storm surge height, type of
damages expected and actions suggested.
4. Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12
hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds
prevail; District Collectors of interior
districts besides the coastal areas are also
informed.
** Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issued
when the Tropical Cyclone weakens into
Depression stage.
Bulletins issued during VSCS PHAILIN from
IMD, New Delhi Bulletin No. of Bulletins
Press Release 3
No. of Press Conferences
Round the clock response to press and public
5
Personal Briefings to senior Officials (Chief
Secy, VC, NDMA, Cabinet Secy, Home Secy etc
At least once a Day.
On 12th frequently
DGM Bulletin 4
National Bulletin 45
RSMC Bulletin 27
TCAC Bulletin (Text & Graphics) 19
Bulletin to Hong Kong website for Aviation DRR 18
TC vitals to NWP modelers 10
Quadrant Wind 7
sms to Senior Govt. Officials 2
LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
AUTHORITIES NATIONAL LEVEL :
1. CONCERNED MINISTRY
2. NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
3. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, WATER, TELECOM
AUTHORITIES
4. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
STATE LEVEL :
1. CHIEF SECRETARY
2. SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER
3. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY
4. REGISTERED WARNEES
5. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS
6. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
AUTHORITIES DISTRICT LEVEL :
1. DISTRICT COLLECTORS
2. REGISTERED WARNEES
LAST MILE CONNECTIVITY :
CYCLONE WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEM (CWDS) PLACED
AT OFFICE OF BDO/ TEHSILDAR/ SCHOOL/ POST OFFICES
/ CYCLONE SHELTERS
MULTI-LINGUAL CWDS BULLETINS ARE BROADCAST BY
PUBLIC ADDRESS SYSTEM BY THE RECEIVING OFFICES
ALL INDIA RADIO
SOP for Cyclone Warning for each country
Synergised SOP within country
Synergised SOP for WMO/ESCAP PTC and
Typhoon Committee countries
Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for
WMO/ESCAP Panel countries
SOP
R&D
Workshops and training programmes were conducted successfully
with participation from member countries.
Improved modelling efforts with HWRF and EPS based forecast
products and the same are shared with Member countries
Storm surge and coastal inundation modelling efforts by INCOIS and
IIT Delhi fully utilised for operational forecasting. The same are
provided to Member countries
FDP on landfalling cyclones continuing with participation of Member
countries. Report and results are shared with these countries
WMO SWFDP-SE Asia : RSMC New Delhi acts as regional centre
WMO SWFDP-Bay of Bengal : It is under Planning Process
Published:
Annual RSMC Report on Cyclonic Disturbances
Annual Cyclone Review Report of WMO/ESCAP Panel countries
Annual Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan (TCP-21)
WMO/ESCAP Panel News
Annual Report of Cyclone Warning Division, IMD and MoES
News Letters : IMD, MoES, SMRC
Preliminary reports of cyclonic disturbances – circulated to all
member countries
Handbook on cyclone warning
Publication in reviewed Journals
Review Reports of IWTC-8 and IWTCLP-III, Jeju, Korea
(Genesis, Track, Intensity, Structure and landfall processes)
Special Issue : Geography and You (Sep-Oct-2014)
Plans
Proceedings of National Workshop held in 2014 – complimentary
copies would be sent to all member countries.
Video Film on Cyclones
Publications
Digital program India initiative Digitisation of RSMC Reports (1990-2014)
Path for 2005-2013: Home /Publications /
Annual RSMC Report
Path for (1990-2004):
Home / Archive /
RSMC Report (1990-2004)
Digitization of all the available annual reports from 1990 onwards
By scanning and making the PDF version of the reports.
Views from Disaster Managers and Policy
Makers
• ODISHA SUPER CYCLONE 1999:
No accurate forecast
No consistent forecast
Lead period less than 24 hrs
Not very usable and actionable forecast
Huge loss of life and property –Economic loss
• VSCS, PHAILIN AND HUDHUD
• Minimal loss of life, Substantial saving of economy
• Appreciation from all over the globe
• National Award to IMD for the first time
• You have proved IMD right while others wrong- Vice Chairman,
NDMA
Views from Media
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES.
The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict the
contours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to do a
better job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclone
studies is needed.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM.
The India Meteorological Department, with improved models and
observation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accurately
not only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.
Thank you
