CyberShake Simulations for Path Effects near SONGS · NGA ground motion model for the geometric...

Southern California Earthquake Center

CyberShake Simulations for Path Effects near SONGS

Feng Wang, Thomas H. Jordan, Robert Graves, Scott Callaghan, Philip Maechling, and the CME

Collaboration


SCEC’s CyberShake utilizes 3D simulations and finite-fault rupture descriptions to compute deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard in Southern California. (Graves et al., 2010)

2

s758 “San Onofre”


3

CyberShake: Simulation-based seismic hazard model

GenSlip v2.1 (Graves and Pitarka, 2007) GenSlip v3.2 (Graves and Pitarka, 2010)

Spatial slip distribution and rupture front

Rise time for slip velocity function

Slip directions (rake distribution)

Rise time

Slip Velocity Function ~7000 fault ruptures (UCERF 2) ~60 realizations per rupture multiple hypocenter locations, and pseudo-dynamic rupture descriptions ~440,000 rupture variations


~7000 fault ruptures (UCERF 2) ~60 realizations per rupture multiple hypocenter locations, and pseudo-dynamic rupture descriptions ~440,000 rupture variations


3D velocity structure, e.g. CVM-S4, CVM-Harvard

4

Community Velocity Model 4.0, SCEC (CVM-S4)


PGV, PGA, SA Hazard curves and maps

5

~108 broadband synthetic seismograms: LF（<0.5 Hz) + HF (up to 10 Hz)

Seismogram synthesis for 235 sites using reciprocity, and stochastic methods (EXSIM)

~7000 fault ruptures (UCERF 2) ~60 realizations per rupture multiple hypocenter locations, and pseudo-dynamic rupture descriptions ~440,000 rupture variations


3D velocity structure, e.g. CVM-S4, CVM-Harvard

Southern California Earthquake Center NGA (2008) Attenuation Relations used in National Seismic Hazard Maps

NGA Boore & Atkinson

NGA Chiou & Youngs

NGA Abrahamson & Silva

PoE = 2%/50 yr Source:

http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia/CyberShake

NGA Campbell & Bozorgnia

CyberShake (2009) Hazard Model

CyberShake shows higher hazard in sedimentary basins relative to NGA GMPEs


Path effects can be explicitly calculated for each CyberShake source

7 ln(SA) at 3.0 s


8

Campbell and Bozorgnia

Chiou and Youngs

Abrahamson and Silva

CyberShake

ln (SA) at 3.0 s

Site-specific effects, corrected using Vs30 effects of Boore and Atkinson (2008), are larger in CyberShake model than in other three NGA GMPEs (2008)


9

Z2.

5 Z1.

0

Z1.

0

Campbell and Bozorgnia

Chiou and Youngs

Abrahamson and Silva

CyberShake

Not simple function of basin depth

Site-specific effects, corrected using Vs30 effects of Boore and Atkinson (2008), are larger in CyberShake model than in other three NGA GMPEs (2008)

ln (SA) at 3.0 s


Three-dimensional velocity models (CVM-S and CVM-H) have different basin structures around SONGS

10 (Magistrale et al. 2000; Suess and Shaw 2003)


11

3s SA

Site s758 San Onofre

PoE: 2% in 50 yr

Annu

al F

requ

ency

of E

xcee

danc

e

by factor of 2

The major source of epistemic uncertainty is the 3D basin structure


CyberShake Hazard Curves for s758

12

0.5 s SA (g)

CVM-S4



13

1.0 s SA (g)

CVM-S4



14

3.0 s SA (g)

CVM-S4



15

5.0 s SA (g)

CVM-S4



16

10.0 s SA (g)

CVM-S4


CyberShake layered seismic-hazard models

17

(Bazzurro and Cornell, 1999)


4 x 10-4 per yr

San Onofre Nuclear Generating Site

18

Rose Canyon- Newport-Inglewood

fault Elsinore fault

Disaggregation Diagram

Figure generated using OpenSHA (Field et al. 2003)

Hazard curves

3.0 s SA (g)

s758


4 x 10-5 per year

San Onofre Nuclear Generating Site

19

Rose Canyon- Newport-Inglewood

fault Elsinore fault

San Jacinto fault

San Andreas fault

Disaggregation Diagram

Hazard curves

3.0 s SA (g)

s758

Southern California Earthquake Center References

20

Abrahamson, N. A. and W. Silva, 2008. Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations, Earthquake Spectra, 24 (1), 67-97.

Bazzurro, P. and C. A., Cornell, 1999. Disaggregaion of seismic hazard. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 89, 2, 501-520. Boore, D. M. and G. M. Atkinson, 2008. Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV,

and 5%-Damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra, 24 (1), 99-138. Campbell, K. W. and Y. Bozorgnia, 2008. NGA ground motion model for the geometric mean horizontal component of PGA, PGV,

PGD and 5% damped linear elastic response spectra for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10s, Earthquake Spectra, 24 (1), 139-171.

Chiou, B. S.-J. and R. R. Youngs, 2008. An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra, Earthquake Spectra, 24 (1), 173-215.

Field, E. H., T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta, T. H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M. D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon II, and C. J. Wills, 2009. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF2.0). Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 99, 2053-2107.

Graves, R., T. H. Jordan, S. Callaghan, E. Deelman, E. H. Field, G. June, C. Kesselman, P. Maechling, G. Mehta, D. Okaya, P. Small, K. Vahi, 2010. CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California, Pure Appl. Geophys., 168, N 3-4, 367-381.

Graves, R., and A. Pitarka, 2010. Broadband ground-motion simulation using a hybrid approach. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 100, 5A, 2095-2013.

Magistrale, H., S. M. Day, R. W. Clayton, and R. W. Graves, 2000. The SCEC Southern California reference three-dimensional seismic velocity model version 2, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 6B, S65-S76.

Mai P, Beroza G, 2010. A spatial random field model to characterize complexity in earthquake slip. J. Geophys. Res., 107(B11): doi:10.1029/2001JB000588.

Field, E. H., T. H. Jordan, and C. A. Cornell, 2003. OpenSHA: A developing community-modeling environment for seismic hazard analysis. 74, 4, 406-419.

SCEC wiki: http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia/CyberShake, last accessed on March 17th, 2013. Suess, M. P., and J. H. Shaw, 2003. P-wave seismic velocity structure derived from sonic logs and industry reflection data in the

Los Angeles basin, California, J. Geoph. Res., 108, B3.

http://scec.usc.edu/scecpedia/CyberShake

CyberShake Simulations for Path Effects near SONGS · NGA ground motion model for the geometric...

Documents

Transcript of CyberShake Simulations for Path Effects near SONGS · NGA ground motion model for the geometric...