CYBERNETIC ANALYS$

OF

INDIAN SOCIETAL SYSTEIW

CYBERNETIC ANALYSISOF

INDIAN SOCIETAL SYSTEM

A Study of ils Course (1961-S0), Grises and Conditionsfor DeveloPment

P. N. RAgTOGIlndian lnstitute of Technology, Kanpur

CENTRE FOR POLICY RESEARCHNEW DFLHI'1f:00157

@ CENTRE FOR POLTCY RESEARCH 1e78

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FOREWORD

The study of national societies as "systerns" is of recent

origin. For reasons of the complexities which are involved

in such systems, their study has been considered out of

reach for social scientists. Yet such studies are the crux of

any bioad spectrum effort to move societies in the desired

direction, which incidentally is the essence of modern planned

develo pment.

The Centre lor Policy Research has been engaged for

some time in studies of basic national policies to evolve

broader policy frameworks. lt was, therefore, a challenge

to look at the aggregate societal system in India and to

examine the viabilily of both the approach and the model' Few

people in the country aie more qualified to do such a study

than Prof. P, N. Rastogi. Prof' Rastogi applies the cybernetic

model to the Indian societal system. He vierrys a society as

a self-governing system which steers itself through its inform'

ation and control system. Steering of a society means guid-

ing and directing its course in an intelligent manner.

Despite some ol the essential quantification' Prof.

Rastogi's model and study is reasonably simple to compre'

hend, and its various scenarios for the country and con-

clusions deserve a careful study by national planners and

policy makefs, even after his caveat that this is only a modest

beginning. In particulai, his finding of two basal levers of

system change, viz. (1) Investibie resouices, and (2) Educat-

ion, deserve serious consideration.

Hopefully the study will provoke further interest in the

field by policy makers, practitioners, and academic scholars

in social system area.

Centre for PolicY Research

New Delhi-110057

January, 1978

V A Pai Panandiker

D irectgr

(vi )

It shall be the task of sociology to check social values andnorms against social consequences.

-Radhakamal Mukerjee

God does not play dice with the world.....,....., Universe isrationally ordered and knowable by human intellect.

Albert Einstein

Sociology as the science ol society has to know in ordefto foresee and to foresee in order to contiol.

-Auguste Comte

(vii )

PREFACEPresent work seeks to analyse the dynamic behaviour of

contemporary Indian societal system. The conceptual frame-work and the methodology of analysis here is based on Cyber-

netics-the science of inlormation and regulation. Over the lastseveral years, the author has developed the application ofcybernetic {ramework to social phenomena and societal systems,This effort has led to a consistent and interrelated set of con-

cepts and analytic procedures in social cybernetics. They

make possible an unique c haracterizatio n of system behaviourand an unambiguous identification of the sources and modes ofits pioblems. They have also led to a realization of theretiodictive confirmation and verifiable predictive inferenceregarding the variables included in a soc ial-cybernetic model.

The analysis of the Indian societal system attempted here

illustrates all these asPects.

The chaptei scheme of the work is as follows. The firstahapter discusses the nature of society as a cybernetic system.

It piesents a conceptualization ol a national society as adynamic multi-cyclical system of interacting regulatory pro-

cesses. The behaviour of a societal system is then seen to be

the iesult of its internally interacting control cycles and theiandom exogenous impacts on the system from natuie and

other societies. When the control cycles ol a system fail tofunction in accoidance with theii intended and recognized

regulatory roles, problems are engendered in the system

behaviour. How the failure of these control cycles' i.e. internal

regulatory processesr individually and conjointly leads to diverse

types of national crises and malaise is brought out in the

second chaptei, The third chapter outlines bfiefly the rationale

of procedures loi computing the vialibility of a societal system

and generating its tlme path through system simulation, lt dis'cusses briefly the nature ol the simulation algorithm that pro'duces time varying values of the system vaiiables. lt also

enumerates specific themes oJ verifiable piedictive inference

and retfodictive confirmation. The fourth chaptef piesents the

( viii )

results of system simulation, i.e. the simulated behaviour o{ thesystem from 1961 to 1975. A consistent comparability of thesimulation results with the actual events and processes duringthe same period is demonstrated. The fifth chapter extendsthis exercise upto 1980. This exercise was originally carrieclout in August 1975^ Four possible tir.ne paths of the systemcofresponding to four different future scenarios are depictedhere,

The remaining chapters are devoted to the issues andmechanics of a societal system's holistic and integrateddevelopment. 'l'heir point of depafiure and conceptualfountainhead lies in the basic model introduced in the first twochapters. Chapter six elucidates the concept of societaldevelopment, defines its goals and operationalizes it through ananalytic device of a system's performance panel. This chanteras well as the next on the methodology of societal planning donot involve any new assumptions. The methodology outlines aplanning paradigm and identifies the most important controlpoints and constraints in planned system change. This chapteroutlines four different but convergent routes of system planningand deduces the basic strategy for an underdeveloped society,stransformation toward a status of higher system viabiiity.Chapter eight discusses the problems of inflation, economicgrowth, unemployment, admlnistrative effectiveness, publicunrest and internal divisiveness in the Indian society and showsthe limits to their piecemeal solution under existing conditions.Chapter nine depicts the process of system trans{ormationsbrought about by the implementation oJ the planning strategy.The dynamic lrehaviour of the system is seen to stabilize at ahigh level of viability within eight years. The last chapterindicates the nature of an information and control system neededfor implementing the strategy o{ system transfofmation. Thisplanned cybernetic ( i. e. information and control) construct isagain seen to be conceptually embedded in the basic cyberneticmodel of chapter o ne.

The focus of the present work is on the Indian societalsystem. The analysis and the findings here would howevei be

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applicable to other developing societies also with appropriatecontextual modifications. The concepts, themes, propositionsand methodology of the work are based on a general theoreticalframework. The work nray accordingly be also viewed as amodest beginning toward a science and technology of societalsystems. The science part is related to system analysis; thetechnology part to system development. Both are integrallyrelated and complement one anothef.

W, N. Whitehead has observed that science advances by

asking different questions, i.e. foimulating its research queries

in terms ol an alternate set of concepts. Shifts in researchparadigms according to Kahn come about as the new paradigms

begin to provide new and meaningful accretions to knowledge

that were unrealizable before, Cybernetic frame-work presented

here similariy provides a new research paradigm in the social

sciences. lt asks different questions about social reality and

leads to results unattainable before, lt starts with fundamental

and universal regulatory processes underlying the societalphenomena. The results of its deductive procedures are then

confirmable through their enrpirical implications' Time-specific

changes involving persons and events, processes and places

become understandable as the empirical concomitants of the

univefsal sYstem dYnamics.

The writer wishes to acknowledge with thanks the

support provided by the Centre lor Policy Research for carrying

out the work reported here. Two research reports entitled,

'Time Path of lndian Societal System (1975-80)' and 'The Develop.,

ment of lndian Societal System' were prepared for the Centre

during November 1975 and September 1976 iespectively. Thepresent volume is a ievised version of these two reports.Thanks are also due to the staff of the Centre for their help

and cooperation especially to Shri Y. L. Nangia who supervised

the printing and publication of this work. Last but not the leastthe writer is grate{ul to Dr. V,A. Pai Panandiker for his interestand support that made possible this work'

P,N. Rastogi

(xi)

COT'ITENTS

Foteword

Pteface

1. Society as a cybernetic system.

2. Societal ciises as the outcome of its mal-fu nclioning contfol cycles,

3. Methodology ol investigation.

4. Time Path of contemporary lndian society (1961-77).

5. The couise of the system upto 1980.

6. Development of total society systeme.

7. Methodology of societal planning.

8, Some core pioblems of f ndian society and thelimits of theii solution. 98

9. Transfofmation of Indian societal sy6tem. 105

10, Fundaments of a steering system for Indian

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societal system.

1'1. Conclusion.

Bibliogiaphy and refefences

Post-Script

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LIST OF DIAGRAMS

1. Dynamics of societal systems2. Logical structuie of cybefnetic approach to

the study of societies3. Mapping of I zones into the perloimance zones

of system variables4. Semantic dimensions of methodology a sum-

mary.The viability of Indian societal system(1961-77)

Viability measurements ol Indian society(1975-80)

Viability spectfa

Performance panel fof lndian 9ociety(1970-80)-rt

Performance panel tor Indian Society (1970-80)-lV

Diagnostic Status of system variables

Qualiiy ol societal li{e in four societiesTwo paths of Brazilian SocietyTwo paths of Nigerian Society

A paradigm of planning methodologyThe pfocess of system transformationPrice rise, economic growth and populationgrowth rate

Relationship betwesn unemployment andeconomic growth corresponding to populationgrowth rate of 2,3o/"

18. Relationship between economic growth andpublic unrest at given levels of populationgrowth.

19. Perfofmence panel for Indian society ffom yeaf

I to ll120 Viability volumes ol the f ndian Society21. Regulatory process and information

22. Cybernetic analog of an information and can-trol system

23. lnformation modules and theif linkages for asocietal system

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LIST OF TABLES

1. Control Cycles' Failufes and Crises in theSocietal Systems 17

2. The Course ol Indian Society (1961-77) 46

3. Time Series Validation of the Simulated Courseof Indian Society (1961-77) 50

4. Fiequency of Non-viable Vaiiables in theBehaviour of lndian System from 1961 to 1977 bg

5. The Cyclical Pattern of Dfoughts Between1943 to 1974 58

6. Simulated Course of lndian Society {rom 1976

to 1e80 (PP-f) 60

7. Simulated Course of lndian Society from 1976to 1980 (PP-fl) 61

8. Simulated Course of Indian Society from 1g76

to 1980 (PP-lll) 64

9. Simulated Couise of Indian Society fiom 1976to 1980 (PP-|V) 65

10. Piedictive Inference in Varying Situations 6g

11, Quality of Life in Four Societies (1961-75) 77

12. Constraint Position, Salience and Controlla- 79bility Salience of Societal System Variables

13. Contiol Interactions o{ the Most Salient ancControl lable Vaiiables

14. Performance Panel of Indian Society Corres-ponding to 10001o literacy and 0.9o/o PopulationGrowth Rate

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ISociety as a Cybernetic System

Social existence of human beings is meant to facilitatetheir survival.r Primary constituents of a human society areits basic institutions. . They aie complex social structures thatevoive and change for realizing the basic Values like,s ustenance,healih, sex, social ofder, security and orientation. An insti-tution consists of a set of inter-related roles, statuses, normsand rituals. lt is accordingly a sociill subsystem of a totalsociety system. Economy as a societal institution is relatedto sustenance, Government to order and regulation, Marriageto sex, Family to sociatization, Military to security, Religion (orldeology) to orientation and so on. The institutions are inter-related as subsystems and together constitute an inclusivesocietal system.2 Their interrelationship follows from theinterrelated nature of man's survival requiiements. The struc.tures for their fulfilment cannot function in isolation. Societyis hence seen as a complex dynam.ic system of intefactinginstitutions. Government exercises a regulatory role on otheiinstitutions in the working of a society as a self-regulatingsystem.

The course of a system is defined by the changing valuesof its salient variables. The values of system variables during agiven period define the state and behaviour of the system durin,gthat period. The course, the behaviour and the states of a

1 The doncopt of 'baslc human needsl was postulated by Mallnowskl lnlhls context,

2 The concept of inslitutions here and throughout thls work refete tomacro.level primary consfltuents of a societat system like the.Economy,Gov.rnm€nt, Education, M ltary and 80 on. Ths refsrent for thcm lsthe society as a whole. Smaller soclal struclures like specinc organl-zations and soclal pattorns also olten referred lo as soclat Institu onB,are not undsr purvlew here.

7 Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal System

system.arq the outcomes of its internal processes and external

impacts. The pattein of internal interactions is affected by

exogenous pei"turbations. These impacts may be in thg foimol political and military pressufes from other societies, in-flowsol economic and military resources, changes in global traderelations and the weather. The resultant system outputs aregiven by the time.varying valles o{ its state variables. Salientstate variables in the present context comprise politico-militarypiessure on the regulator, investible resourcesfor economic de-

velqpment, population growth, economic arowth, unemployment,price rise, administrative effectiveness, education, health' public

unrest, ethnic tension (i.e., internal divisiveness), political insta-bility, change ol government, the stature of ruling leadeishipand ihe expectations bl socii. They underlie lhe interactions ofsocietal institutions. They serve {o define together the changingprofiles ol societal syslems.

The above salient. variables may brie{ly be explicated asbelow. Population growth rate (pg) refers to the annual incre-ase in the numerical size of a society, Economic growth rate(eg) refers to the peiiodic change in the material resource base

6f a society. Investible resources (ir) represent the quantumof resouices deployed lor productive input to the economy.Unemployment, (ue) indicates the proportion of total workingforce that remains unabsorbed in the society's economicactivities. Price iise (pr) is a measure of relative scarcity andeconomic pressuie on the socii. Education, (ed) indicatesthe 'level of knowledge, .skills and communication in terms ofliteracy and stress on research and development. Health (h/)refers to the average expectancy ol life in a social order,Ethnic tension, (el) refers to the disruptive aspect qf internaldivisiveness based on racial, cultural and ideological factors.Administrative effectiveness, (ae) refers to the level of corrup-tion and efiiciency in the administrative machinery of a society,Expectations of socii, (es) refers to their evaluation of the rulingleadership of the government with respect to its ability to solvethe society's major problems. Leadership lactor (/d/), refersto the stature of the ruling leadership among the masses.Politico-military pressure (pmp) signifies .the impact of externaland internal stresses and disturbances on the government of asobie.ty. Goveinment stability, (GS) refers to the orderly'andiiable operation of political, economic and social processes

Society ss a Cybernetic SYstem '3

including lhe mode of change of the goveinment. The variables'

oiven here are interpreted in terme of their widest implications.

Foputution growth rate for example is not a mere statistical

quantity, it is a crucial indicant of the interactions of Economy,

iamily, Health and Religion. Populations with a hlbh birth

rate and high death rate tend to be guided by custom, thoee

with a high birth rate and a declining death rate by conscience

and those with a low birth rate and low death rate by opinion,l

Similarly economic growth is an indicant of a number ol ineti'tutions

-besides economy- lis value reJlects the impact of

natuie, administrative' bffeDtivehess, politico'military pregeufe

and technological research (ed) on the operation of a society'seconomic Pfocesses.

A Dynamic Piclure of SocietY :

These vaiiables serve to delineate a dynamic pictufe ofsociety as an adaptive system of interaeting institutionalprocesses. The institutional processes aie defined by the

causal and covariation relalionships ambngdt {he system

variables, The variables, the relationships and tho proc€ss€r

together piovide a dynamic pictuie of a society as follows :

Government as the re41&tlry subsystem of soclety isconlronted with a number of I nlehal and external disturbances

and stresses. They stiain its regulating capacity. Togethei

they constitute a destabilizing politico-military piessure (prnp)

on the system regulator. This piessuie results in'a non'productive diversion of available oconomlc r€souices towafdih" f"lt requiiements of internal public support and militarysecuiity. ln capitalist systems, the pressure aleo leads to alessening and cessation of piivate investment in nationaleconomy. Capitalist societies in this context may be interpre-ted as distributed control systgms as compated to the centiallyplanned economies of the socialist societies' Polilico-militarypressure reduces the quantum of investible resources (rr) forproductive inPut to the economY.

' The available resources permit a potential rate of ecoiomicgrowth which is, however, subject to a sociely's relative capa-bility in the utilization of its resources. This capability factor

I Davld Rlesman, lhe Lonely Crowd' Yale Unlvsrglty Pres3, 1953.

4 Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

teimed administiative effectiveness (ae), is seen to be ,deter_mined by two mgjor elements : education (edJ ano governmentstability (GS). The higher the educational

'level and'kno*i"aS;

base of a society, the more efticient would its administration be.fimilarly, . governmental stability is vital for the administrativepfocesses to be carrled out effectively. Administrative effec_ljVenegS acts as a filter on (r,r) to determine the actual rale of€conomic growlh (rS). Economic growth may also be affected bythe_exogenous impacts of weather, global trade relations andin-flows of economic resources. Economic growth affectsunemptoyment (ue) and price rise (p-r) in conjunction with therqfe of population growth (pg). Rate of populution growth ina society is cumulatively influenced by the average expectancyof life (f/), level of literacy (ed) and the hold of religious tradition(rel). Expansion and improvement of health and education in aso,ciety. depend on the investible resources (rr) allocated to them.Flucalion .in turn influences health and administraiive effective_nqss b€sides serving fo reduce the conservatism and ortho_

:""Iy^ :l.l:'l9i"n .and,srate .ideo to gies. Reli gio us and. ideoto gical

9rLnog9ll tend to adversely affect the internal communal schismsIer)

within a social order. Unemployment and..price rise lead \Io pubtic unrest (pu) and aggravate the ethnic tension (el) oilnterndl dlvislveriess within d na{ibnal societv.

., fdUtic unrest, ethnic !ension and the politico-militaryP*.::r.1" on Government determine the total magnitude of'1.:l'ryti9l3t qrg::ure on Government (fpgl) and determine theff:il:ll,: stabitity or viabitiry (ss) durins any parricular period.-r !e rartef expresses the relalive capability of a societal iystem:o,yrtlstald si.resses and s{iains i, e., its srrength. lt affects as

:!.1 ,n: standing.of ruling leadership and the evaluation bysoc ot the conduct of their government concerning theirsociety's most pressing problemJ (es).

, " Mass ltanding of a leader is given by a leadership factor(/dfl. Stature of a ruling teader is un"ct"jof ;; p;;i;rr;;;;ol the .government (i.e., _"I:l9m viability) managed ;; ;;;.IJelce the actual value ot.(ldf) may uury-irorn perioo to period.T!9 elnectations of socii during a period depend on the actualYfl.ue. o1 ldf and. 'gs during that period, When the vatueof (es) approaches a critically low level, it signals an impendingchange of goverlment. Leadership factor explains the situations

Society as a Cybternetic Systim j

where societies conlronted with tremendors stresses of *ar,poverty and privation stand up to their problems and survive.Charismatic leaders like Gandhi, Ataturk, Ho Chi Minh andLenin illustrate the types of situation concerned. On the otherhand, the chronic political instability of postwar France andItaly may also be interpreted in terms of a low leadership factordespite their relative affluence as ,developed' industrial

The Cybernetic Perspective :

Cybernetic perspective. helps to further elr.rcidate lhedynamic picture of a society. The basal concept of cyberneticsis control or regulation. A cybernetic system possesses aregulatory subsystem. The regulator changes the course andresponses of the system in the diiection of in creasin g.adaptationand/or protection from internal and external disturbancesrGovernment serves the function of such a regulator for societies.',It regulates the course of variables like unemployment, pricerise, pressuie from other societies and inteinal divisivenessetc., in order to maintain system stability and realize systemgoals, lf any of the regulated variables go ,off' their courses, itwould signify a state ot system disturbance i. e., a failure of theregulator. Under such conditions, policy andy'or str,ucturechanges may ensue in the system. Measurement of the".regulated-ness (I) of the controlled varjables provides a logi_qal basisJorevaluating ihe overall viability_ (Z) ot a cybern.eiic system,Low virlues of

'the irariables iike unemployment, price risi,public unrest and ethnic tension and high value of the variableslike economic growth and administrative effeetiven6si denotetheir. effective -regulatedness or the viable performance of asocietal system. 'Viable

system performance hence implies theeffective opeiation of its regulator, The viability of a systemand the viability of its regulator thus refer to the same intlinsicphenomenon. The overall performance of a system may hencebe evaluated in terms of the regulatedness (i.e., performanc6)of the variables controlled by the system regulator. Measure-ment of the viability of a societal system (Z) thus simultaneouslyprovides a measure ol the stability of its regulator i.e.,

societies.

Government (gs).1

1, llathemaliaal basls {orchapter.

the computatlon ol Z and GS

6 eybernetic Anaiysis oj indian Societai Sisten

Cybernetic perspective further serves to define the natufeahd operation of the system's control process€s. Controlprocesses according to cybernetics operate in the form ofnegative and positive feedback lodps. A feedback loop is acircular reactive structure that con tinually cycles along itscircular path'' The cycling period of a loop is given by the timerequired to traveise the loop path from a given variable throughother connected variables back to the same variable. Anegative loop is oriented toward maintaining stability and/orbalance by negating and reducing the deviations that disturbthis stability and balance. A positive loop on the other handsefves to amplily the deviations, ft thereby creates cumulativegrowth or decline in its successive cycles.

Cybernetic analysis hence interprets the internal processesof a self-regulating system in terms of a set of interaiting feed-back cycles. lt requires the system vaiiables to be linkedtogetlrer in a multi-cyclical pattern. Their time varying valuesi. e,, change of system states are then seen as the outcome ofthe endogenous cyclical p,ocesses of interaction and theexogenous impacts on the system variables, The variablesand processes of a societal system are also organizable in asimilar multi-cycle paltbrn. This follows from {he nature ofsociety as a cybernetic system.

Societal processes and variables are seen to be organizedin a'set of eleven interacting positive feedback cycles. Theiroverall pattern of intdfaction is depicted in lhe dia!ram numberone.

The fact ol all the societal control cycles being positive.ishighly significant. They point to the inhere.nt orientation ofsocietaf systems lowards growth and development. lt is whenthe growth inducing positive.cycles fail to attain their regulatoryobJectives that one finds a sscietal system'beset with p.ft"rsand crises. The failure and mal-functioning of the controlcyclos may be due to the endogenous and/oi exogenousfactors.

Each of the,e{even societal cycles is discussed one by oneas lollows :

Control Gyctes of a Socieial System i, Cl-tclg I consists , of . Politico-military piessure (pmp),lnvestible' reso urces (i/), Economic growth (eg), Unemployment

Society as a Cybernelic SYstem

and price rise (ue, pr), Public unrest and Et[nic tension (pu, ell ''This cycle shows that politico-military pressure results lrom

the impact oi other societies and the internal problems ol unfest

and divisiveness (pu, et). lt reduces the level of inveslible re-

sources (ir) for productive input to the economy. The higher thqpmp prcssurc, the lower the quantum of available resources fo-t1

productive investment. The level of resources (rr) along withl

administrative effectiveness (ae) determines the level ol actual

economic growth (eg). The latter is also affected by a humberi,

of random exogenous factors. lmpact of weather on agriculturalproduction and of terms of trade on national income is quitq

marked. Othei exogenous factois may affect eg by incrpasing:

investible resources (lr) and national product through eiternal .

investment and commodity aid. Such factors come within lhQ

iange of exogenous variable, 'Economic relations- with othe.r

societies'. Rates of economic 'growth and population grow{h

(pg) determine the level o{ Unemployment and Piice rise'

(ue, pr) during a given period. Economic growth reduces un€m-"

ployment and price rise; populalion growth. increases them' The

magnitudes oi unemployment and price. rise detefmine

the levels of Public uniest (pu) and Ethnic tension (et)..

lnteinal divisiveness within a society (et) is also affected. by it-s

t'ristoty una religion(s) (or ideologies)' Public unrest and ethniq

i;;;1.; affect tie politico-militarv pressuie alons an endogenous

dimehsion.Theexogenousdimensionotpmpisgivenbythef,iiill s-"li.tib'di

-ir',!ci;le iJ complete atthis point' . . ,.

It is a positive self-reinforcing cycle' It..indicates that in a

malfunctioni'ng mode, pmp would !o on co.ntinuously.increasing'

"il"if".rl cvJling period unless there is reduction in the internal

uid1o, "*t"*ul pressures from other societies' External economic

and military inputs may help to reduce it temporarilyt In its

intended regulatory.oae, it'"'cycte would !ea! jo "a probressive

l".r"utu oi pmp- alter each iycling period' Decrease of pmp

*"rfJ u" associated with correiponding increases in fu and eg

and reduction s in ue, pr, pu and et duiing the same cycHtl*'

;;;.;.-i; its stagnation mode i'e" a non-growth and 'non'

decllne situation, all the variables and thelr related .l'ob1:t:.iwould continue to persist at their current levels with minor'

variations. Such a state ol affairs would imply the conversion

;i';;;;iti*;tii"lnto a nesative cvcle'

Cvcle ll consists of total .pr.eqslr19. on glvernm€nt (tpd'

Government stability titl,"'AaiittiJtiutiu" e=ffectiveness (ae)'

$ Cybernetic Analysis oj Iniitan Societoi System

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Society as a Cybernetic $ystent

Economic giowth (eg), Pu blicand Politico-military pressureboundarv.

unrest and Ethnic tehsion (pu, et)(pmp). lt includes cycle I in its

Cycle ll shows that total pressure on government (fpg) isdetermined by pu, et and pmp. The magnitude of this pressure(fpg) determines the govelnment stability (gs). Governmentstability along with education (ed) determines administrativeeffectiveness (ae). Administrative effectiveness (ae) then in-fluences (eg), The remainder part of this cycle proqeeds as inthe Cycle l. lt is also a positive feedback cycle. In its intend-ed regulatoiy role, it seeks to increase gs with each cycling.period through increases in ae and eg and decrease of fpg. Inits malfunctioning mode, the cycle would lead to a worsening ofadministrative ineffec.tiveness (ae) and economic situation (eg,ue, pr) brought about by an increasing political instability. (pu,et, pmp, fpg and gs).

Cycle lll relates together Government stability (gs), Leader-ship factor (ldf) and Expectations of socii (es). lt shows that/df is determined by contemporary .history (i.e., current events)and the status ol government stability (gs.) lt affects in turn thegs i.e., a high stature ruling leadership leads to a higher evalua-tion by the citizens of their government and vice versa. Highervalue of es then influences the stability of the governmentaccordingly. Higher and lower values of any loop variable hereaffect its consequent variable in.{he same manner.. . This cltc.le isalso a self'reinlorcing positive cycle.

Cycle lV shows a similar mutually reinforcing relationshipbetween gs and es. Higher the government stability, greatef theexpectations of socii and viae versa.

. Cycle V consists of Investible resources (ft), Education(ed), Ad,ministrative effectiveness (ae) Economic growth (eg),

Unempf oyment and Pricei'riide.(ue, pr), Public unrest and Ethnictension (pu, et) and Po litico-military pressure (pmp).

The cycle V shows that higher investible resources loreducation affect the level of knowledge and skills (ed) of thecitizenry leading among other things to a highei level of ae,Higher ae then leads to higher ed and thence to lower ae,

fi ' pu, et and, pmp, l;owei pmp serves to increase the level

10 Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal Systettt

ol ir. fn its properly operating mode, this cycle seeks tocontinually increase ir and eg via ed and ae,

Cycle Vl consists of Education (ed), Population growth(pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue, prl, Public unrest andEthnic tension (pu, et), Politico-militiiry pressure (pmp) and In-vestible resources (rr).

This cycle shows that higher investible resoufces for edu-

cation lead to higher educational leve! of the citizenry which in

turn leads to the reduction of population growth rate, Reduced

pg rate goes to reduce pr and ue which in turn, reduce pu, ef

and pmp. Lower pmp level increases the level of I'r and thence

leads to moie iesources for, ed. Resultant highei levels of ed

then Iead to further decline of pg fate and pmp level. The cycle

thus continually opeiates to fegulate pg through ed via ir in aself-sustaining and progiessive manner. Strength ol religious

beliels (rel) may however adversely affect the regulation of pg

in some societies'

Cycle Vll consists of Education (ed), lmpact of new andpow€rful technologies; Economic growth ,

(eg)' Unemployment

and Price rise (ue, pr), Public uniest and Ethnic tension (pu, et),

Politico-mif itary pressuie (pmp) and Investibles resources (ir).

This cycle shows that investments in education (reseafch

and developmental work) may lead to the creation ol new andpowerful technology (ies). The impact of such new technology

iies) on economic growth would be quite marked and it'wouldthence aflect ue, , pu, et and pmp successively, reoultihg in

the growth of ir lor furthei investments in R. & D' lt is a self-

exciting positive loop. The relationship between investment

in education (R & D), and the emergence of powerful new

technologies is however of a random and contingent nature'

Scientific and technological break-thioughs are rare occurr-

ences.

Cycle Vlll consists af Education (ed), Health (h/), Popula-

tion growth (pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue' pr)i Public

unrest and Elhnic tension (pu, et) t Politico-mllitary pressure

(pmp) and Investible resources (lr). This cycle shows that

"Oroitlon influences the health of citlzens' Hoalth-co,n9cioutl

Saciety as aCYbernetic SYstent lt

and well-infoimed cilizens impiove lheir health standaids and

health care, Citizens educated in health matters limlt lheir

tamity sizes as a matt€r o{ course' The iesultant impact of

education and health on population growth impro-ves the system

in a setf-sustaining manner, The operation - of this cycle is

similar to that of the Vl cYcle.

Cycle lX consists of Investible resource€ (rr)' Health (h/)'popufaiion growth (pg), Unemployment and Price rise (ue' p/)'

Pulfic unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, etl and Politico-military

pressuie (PmP)'

lThis cycle shows the influence of investible resources (lr)

onthefami|yplanningandhea|thcarefaci|itiesforthecitizens.Healthy citizens with high expectancy of life do not desire many

children as the expeiience of the ileveloped societies shows

;;;i;; f", large families is related to the high ra{es of infant

mortality "nd lot expectancy of liie' With improvements in

nuirition, sanitation and health care for the lamily' lhe reduction

in pg toilowt in due couise, The operation of this cycle is

similar to that of the Vlll'

Cycle X consists of Education (ed), Religio.n (rel)' Public

unrest and Ethnic tension (pu, et), Politico-military pressure

i;;;t ;J lnvestible ,.soui."" (ir)' This cvcle shows lhe

irpilt of education on religion and/or ideolo.gy of the citizens'

Education here signifies the sustained and intensive drives to

'reeducate' the socii i. e., change their attitudes and beliefs

in the interest of prescribed national goals' The resqltant

national religion and/or ideology would then serve as a socially

unilying lactor in reducing the intetnai divisiveness (et)' lt*oriU it"o help lessen pu on the ground ot need to bear with

couiage the national economic difficulties' lt would thereby

;;;;-4" G.t"n' th" pmp, increase the I'r .and thence pefmit

lurther investments in tire sustained educative drives thrpugh

the mass media of communication' Such a pattern has 'beencharacleristic of the communist societies'' The same obiective

;;;d"" been accomplished by the charismatic leaders through

iil'.ir-'p"ttonul efforts' In th; highlv advanced.so:ielies',.!hoioi" oi eOucatlon in shaping the feligious (or ideological) ori€n-

iuilntonuru. ieducing internal divisiveness has been a long

"uoiution.tv proc€ss' Education in these societies conduces

t2 Cybernetic Anaiysis o/ Iniitan Soci:etal Sysiehi

towards the reflective patriotism of the citizens. In the lessdevdloped societies, education's rore in the pr"sent context riesin creating an instinctive patriotism and thereb'v i"Jr.irs i"i"rralschisms.

Cycle Xl consists of Education (ed), Religion (rel), popu_lation growth (pg), Unemployment and price risi (ue, pr), publicunrest and Ethnic tension (pu, et), politico_military pressure(pmpl, and Investible resources (f).

The cycle shows the progressive impact of education onreligion so that it ceases to be a constraint on the adoptionof lamily planning by the citizenry. At a more devetoped levelthe changes in religious outlook induced by education woulls6rve to facilitate the iegulation of poputition growth. Theint'ended operation of this roop is simirar to the'X *iil., fl.," oiru-rence that religion here affects pg instead of pu and et. -

The Rationale of the Cybernelic Approach .:.

Cybernetically, Ihe phenomena of Indian society Are seento be the outcome of th'e same invariant processes tt'at goveinthe working of other societal

.systems. Specific details of pheno-mena in terms of persons, sjtu.a.tlons, history ana cumii iiydiffer from socie.ty to society..But {herr occurren ce within u rpeCii,pe.rtod qf time, the logic of -.thel production, thg pattern. df-iiri,Uariatien and thg impact of their occurrcnce an .govetnment stabritity can be undelstood for different societies, Such an un.der:_stahding and explanation are obtained in terms of the piinciplesand,concepts applicable to societies asa specific ;liss;;systems.

High values of ethnic tension (el) in a society for 6xampl€denote a sitdation of serious interhar disturbances engendbiedby its internal cleavages and divisiveness. Concreitb ,pienore_nal manifeitation of el would however aineiirom society tosoCiety. In Ffance, it would be evidenced in the form ol grtw_ing sectarian differences. ln Nigeria it would be observed asinternecine tribal conflict. In India, it would take the form ofcasteist, communal, linguistic and regional distuibances, Inter_pretation, understanding and predi,ction of such, events andaituations are obtained in terms of .invariant non-subjectiverpocesses. The analysis is hdwever direcfly relatable io real

lefigit ot a Cybertryticsyttem : 13

woql{ happenings and as such open to disconfirmation. A highvalue of ef, during periods ol relative peace and vice versa in anysociety would for example invalidate the model and its under_lyin g premises.

Study of society as a cybefnetic system in fact leads todisconfirmable inference regarding all the variables of its multi-cycle structure. The model can be simulated both backward andforward in time. System simulation replicates the operation ofactual system processes within a model. lt yields as output thetime varying course of system variables. The latter may thenbe compared with the relevant data and information from theconcerned periods. Convergence between the computed valuesof system viability (Z) and the simulation value ol governmentstability (gs) provides another source of model validation. Thevalue of z and gs are also directly testable with refefence to thephenomena of political stability, orderliness of political processesand the nature and mode of a change of government,l

The basic rationale of cybernetic approach is provided bytie complementary concepts of ,control' and ,reg

u lated nessi,Government.is the control subsystem of society. The viabilitygr strength of a society depends on the effective regulation ofifs state variables. Their proper regulatedness denotes theviable perlormance of the societal institutions .i.e., how far afethey meeting the basic survival values of human beings. Thedynamics of internal system processes are also patterned afterthe operation of control processes i.e., the inteiacting cycles offeedback loops. The whole pattern is oriented aiound theprocesses thdf shape antl are shaped by the stability (oi via-bility) of the system regulator i,e., the goveinment. TheirSimulation generates the values,of the system varibles that canhE co.nf rmed with reference to the the past, present andfuture periods:, The overall logical structure of the cybernetic study of

Societies as envisaged hero is summarized in diagram numbertwo.

1 The methodological iealization of the cybernetic approachljowever calls for the measuiement of the variables and theiri.egulatedness or viability (I). lt also iequifes the devilopment

L Ses Third chaptor,

I4 Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societal System

Baslc survival

Volues ol '--)Humon Beings

Instirutlons ota. soeietal systcmwith Governmentas Rogulat9l

Interactiod'df

?I

I-tSalient P6rtormanc€

Variables

System Viabiliry(Z) =

R etrodrcliveConf irmation andPredictive Infsr€nce

Oths, socistiss-T./ Random/ Faclorg/ -T-J/

lnstitr,lionE

?I

*Multi-looPPatte.n ol SYstemDynamics

Syslcm Viabitily (c S)

and

Politicsl StabiliryGovirnment ChangeEconomic GrowthPrice Ris€ .UnemploYmentPublic UnrsstEthnic TensionAdministrstive Eff8ctive.ressExpecl€lions of SociiPolitico. militarYPressuae

lo the studv ot Societies.

Di8gr€m Number Two

Logical struclure ol.Cvbelnetic aPProach,

Viability (l) Spedror

Society as a CYberne:ic SYstem 15

ol an algoiithm fof simulating the complex multiloop dynamic

structure ol the system. These and related methodological

issues are dealt with in ihe third chaptef' ln the next chapter

we however first trace the inter-relationships between the ciisss

and malaise besetting a society and the malfunctioning of its

internal control cYcles,

l8 Cybcrnetic Analysis oflndian Societal System

Table I Contd.

Cycle ll To increase gs, aeand eg and decreaseue, pr, put et, and tpgin a p ro g ressivemanner.

Cycle lll To progressively in-crease gs, ldf, and esin a correlated manner.

To progressivelyincrease gs and €s,in an interrelatedmanner.

To increase ir, ed, ae,and eg and decreaseue, pr, pu, et and pmpin a cumulative man-ner.

Cycle lV

Cycle V

Cycle Vl To progiessivelyincrease ir and ed anddecrease pg, ue, pr,pu, et and pmp.

levels of economicgiowth and p rod u ctiveinvestment in theeco nom y.

Persisting and risinglevels of politicalinstability, adminis-trative inefticiency,unemployment, inflationand internal dissonance;declining levels ofeconomic growth.

Persisting and gfowingpolitical instability; dec-linin g stature of theru lin g leadership andlow public morale.

Low morale of thecitizens and growingpolitical c haos.

Lack of investibleresources, high i;liter-acy, weak and inefficientadministration. loweconomic growth, risingunemployment andprices, internal sc his r-,rs

and persisting poiitico-military tensions withother societies.Lack of investible reso u r-ces, educational back-wardness, increasingpo pulation, persistingunemployment, inflation,internal schisms andexternal tensions,

Societal Crises as the outcome of its Mafunctioning Control Cycles lQ

Table I Contd.

Cycle Vll To promote eg

through new inno-vative technologiesand thence red uce ue,pr, pu, et and pmp.

Cycle Vlf l To increase ir, ed andh/ and decrease pg,ue, pr, pu, el andpmp,

Cycfe lX To increase ir, and hland decrease pg, ue,pr, pu, et and pmp ina cumulative pattern.

Cycle X To increase ed, na-tional integration (rel,)and r'r and reducepu, et and pmp in aninterrelat'ed manner.

To reduce pg, ueril,pu, et and pmp andincrease fi, ed andthe religion's (orideology's) role inreducing pg,

Technological backwa-rdness, low economicgrowth and high levels ofunemployment, inflationand internal and exter-nal political problems.

Lack of investible re-sources, high illiteiacy,low expectancy of life,growing population andgrowing economic, socialand political difficultles,

Lack ol investible resour-ces, highly inadequateand poor lacilities fofhealth care, laige grow-ing population, persistingeconomic, social andpolitical predicaments.

High illiteracy, highljdivisive role of religion(s) and/or ideologies;lack of investible res-'ources, growing publiiunrest, internal divisi-veness and politico-militafy pressure.

llliterate and orthodoxpopulation, high rate oipopulation growth andgrowing economic, politi-cal and internal diffi-c ulties of a society.

Cycle Xl

20 Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal Syitem

Actual and potential crises situations in a social order arethe outcome of the operation and interaction of these elevencycles,. Developed and underdeveloped systems however showdissimilarities in the malfunotioning of their respective controlcycles, ln the developed systems only the first and tho secondcycles usually malfunction especially when they face persistingpolitico-military pressure from other societies. Cycles lll and lVthere usually operate at ordinary regulatory levels. Developedsystems characteristically lack charismatic leadership. lt leadsto the relatively average values oJ /d/and es variables theie.On the other hand, they are seen io be particulary strong inthe cycles V, Vl Vll, Vlll, lX, X and Xl. These cycles operate ateffective to very effective regulatory levels in the developedsystems. Very low values of pg and very high values of ed andh/ reflect this aspect of their strength and viabiliiy. Thesecycles serve to contain and rectify the malfunctioning of the I

and ll cycles in these systems. They protect the developedsystems against the ::athology ol political instability.

Underdeveloped societal systems on the other hand areweak in almost all of their control cycles. In societies withcharismatic leadership however, the llland lV cycles operate in arelatively more viable manner. They help to prevent the pathologyof political instability there. Cycles VI to Xl are characteristi-cally weak in the underdeveloped systems. This weakness isreflected in the low values of their ed, hl and ae and the hiErh

vafues of pg, rel and et. ln u n derdeu,elope.:/ syslems lacking theadvantage of higher Idf, political instability becomes apersistentphenomenon, Acutely malfunctioning cycles would howevertend to degrade the higher level cycles lll and lV to theirown low levels. Such has been seen to be the case in sevtiralweak systems with charismatic leaderships. Nkrumah of Ghana,Sukarno of Indonesia, Mujib of Bangla Desh and Allende ofChile illustrate this type o{ situation in weak societal systems.Weak systems become more vulnerable to externally inducedaubversion and internal stresses. ?t follows from the Wiener'sLaw of the Entrainment or Matching of Frequencies accordingto which the parts of a dynamic system tend to lunction at amatching pace. lf most of the cycles are ineffective (oreffective), the remaining effective (or ineffective) ones wouldtend to go down (or come up) to the level of the majority of theCYcles'

Socieni irises as tie outcome of its Malfunctiontng Control Cyctes 2l

The pr,oper operation of control cycles within a societal

system is disrupted by external and internal disturbing factors'lmportant factors disrupting the internal growth processes inthe Indian system and othei national societies, have been

observed to be as follows :

(i) Severe economic, military and political piessures fromother national societies and/or. severe internal politicalstresses, These have led to a diversion of scarcefesou rces toward unproductive channels,

(ii) A.dverse weather conditions leading to large losses in

agricultural production and thence to a marked reduc'tion of economic growth'

(iii) High population growth rate aggravating the problemsof unem ployment and inflation.

(iV) Low level of administrative effectiveness leading tounwanted constraint on the achievable levels ofeconomic growth.

When these disruptive factors intensify individually and/or

collectively, they depress, distort and even reverse the operation

of a system's basic growth processes. They engender a growing

malaise in a society that may range from distressing poveity and

unemployment to acute civil unrest and violent chaos' The

increasing strain on the regulatory capability of the government,

renders it increasin gly unstable.

The time path of Indian society and the malaise observed

in its working are directly related to above disruptive factors'Its problems started intensifying from 1954 when Pakistanjoined USA sponsored military alliances and increased the level

of pmp on lndia. Another source of prnp which cumulated thestress from Pakistan, appeared in 1961-62 in the context of'Chinese aggression on India. Confrontation with Pakistan and

China, Indo-Pak wars of 1965 and 1971 and the influx of ten

million iefugees in 1971 were other negative developments.

Adveise weather conditions leading to marked reduction in

agricultural production have engendered recurring crises,High population growth and low productivity on account ofilliteracy and administiative inefficiency have been other

,t 'I I Cybemetic Analysis of Indtan Societal Systen

persisting {actois of disturbance, All o{ them have shaped andenlarged the crisis situations of Indian society. The crises havevariously bben manifested as serious shortages of food, fuel andpower, rising inflation'and unemployment, parochial movementsand riots, student unrest, labour problems; corrupt and inefficientbureaucracy and growing poverty of the masses.

Behind these disparate and apparently unrelated crisissituations, lie the malfunctioning control cycles of a societalsystem and their disruption by the disturbing factors,

Fourth chapter examines the timepath ol the lndian systemfrom 1961 to 1975. System's simulated behaviour reflects thecountinuing failure of its internal circulatory control mechanisms.

In the next chapter we outline the methodological apparatusunderlying the present work. It explicates the concept of systemviability, the regulatedness of system variables, the nature ofsystem simulation algorithm and the dimensions of predictiveinlerence,

.'

Methodology of I nvestigation

The methodology of investigation developed here is also

based on cybernetics. The following issues are covered

briefly :

(i) Measurement of viability of system variables ())'

(ii) Computation of system viability (Z)'

(iii) Estimation procedure for initial values of system vari-

ables and

(iv) Nature of the algorithm foi system simulation'Measufement Schema {or Viability (l) Estimation :

The central concept heie is 'regulatedness'' lt is related

to level of performance. The value of a varlable depicts a

certain level and aspect of system performance' Higher and

lower levels of performance accordingly measure the varying

degrees of regulatedness. Performance or regulatedness of avariable hence depicts an aspect of system viability' Viability

iefeis to the capacity of a system to survive destabilizing stress-

es and d isturbances'

The concept of viability (l) of a system variable piovides

the basis lor a higher ordef of measufement. Viability may be

deemed to range along a continuum whose two poles are zero

and one. The higher level of measuiement is then accomplish-

ed by mapping the performance limits to the viability limits' Thls

*ouid fot. example, then enable one to say that if the economlc

growth rate is 13o/o or more, its viability measure is one or if the

iopulation growth rate is 3.5o/o or over' its Y value is z€ro'

This logic of measurement leads to the idea of viabillty

segments/zones depending upon the relative closeness of a Ivalue to either of the two poles, These zoneo are deflned by

24 Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societai System

the equi-distant points on both sides of the mid-point bound-ary of ,l:0,5, lt {ollows that the zone defined by 0.75_1.00would indicate maximum viability and the one defined by 0.0_0,25 would show a highly disturbed state of a very low level ofregulatedness and performance. These segmental i limits areagain mapped into a performance continuum {o yield a linear ornon-linear ielationship. This process of mapping the segmentallimits (as distinct from the terminar rimits) is based on the intef-pretation of available data from different societies. Thus to takethe example of economic groyvth, the segmental boundaries areqive.1 b.V 0%10.5%,3%,9%, and 13.Sol". They comprise besideslhe higher and lower observed rates of growth, the intefmediatesituation classes observed in difieient societies. simirarry foipopulation giowth, i-zones are defined by 0%, 0.Eo/.,2,1o/o,Bo/o and3.5%, Here the higher viability segments represent the demogra_phic situation in industriaily advanced societies and the rowerones in African, Asian and Latin American societies. variabreslike politico-m ilitary pressule, pubric unrest ancr ethnic tensionare also measured in an analogous manner. Theoretically maxi_mum values ol pmp, pu and et correspond to minimum vlabilityvalues i.e,,\:0 and vice versa. Reverse would be the case forvariables like ae, es, gs and ldf. Here the theoretically maximumand minimum scale values would coincide with the maximumand minimum limits of the viability continuum.

' . The mapping of scale values of the qualitative variables.into corresponding i-segments is an intricate issue. lt is alsoclosely linked with the issue of estimating the initiar varues ofthese variables for a given period. Estimation of initiar varuesis discussed in the next section. The following procedure.helps to resolve the mapping problem.

(i) With reference to a given variable, hypothesize theextreme types of situations corresponding to the 0 and1 extremities of the variable.

(ii) Identify the relevant types of situations (in differentsocieties across time and space) between the twohypothesized extremes.

,. (iii) Order these situatiorrs according to their increasingr,,.. , sevefity of intensity.

Iuiethodot o gy aj Inv estigatiorr

(iv) Arrange the situations so ordered in

classes.

2S

a set of four

(v) Define the terminal characteristics of each situationclass i.e., where it begins and leaves off.

(vi) Map these situation classes into the four zones of theviability continuum.

(vii) Associate a given situation under study with such aclass and place it within a I zone.

The c h aracterization and classification of a situation is tobe made with reference to the state of affairs over a year. Anyear is the time unit of estimation and simulation. Accordinglythe transient events are to be distinguished from more durableaspects oJ a given situation over the period.

This procedure may be briefly illustrated with reference tothe politico-m ilitary pressure variable. Politico-m ilitary pressurerefers to the destabilizing pressure exerted on a government by

its internal and/or external enemies, A hypothetical extreme

here would be a complete absence of internal opposition and

external military menace, The other extreme would be a fullscale civil war or an all out war with another society. Thesetwo extremes of minimum and maximum pressure would corres-pond to the.\ values of one and zero respectively. The situationclasses and the tr segments may briefly be specified as below :

1. Low level oJ internal opposition and dissent along theinternal dimension. Normal state relations with othersocieties along the external dimension.

(pmp zone:0.0-0'25; l zone:1.0-0.75)

2. Increasingly militant politics of opposition by oiga-nized groups (political parties, labour, students, ethnicgroups) and insurgency on a substantive level (in-ternal dimension), Antagonistic state relations withother societies rangin g from polemics to military con-frontation, border incidents, and a level of military pre-paredness to meet the contingency of large scald

. military operations at short notice (external dimens-.ion s) '

(pmp zone:0.25-0.5;,1 zone:0.75-0.5),

26 Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societai Systen

3. Widespread insurgency and/oi civil waf, disiuptiveopposition activity capable of paralyzing the economyand administration (internal dimension). Active andpervasive military confrontation constituting an imper_ative threat to national surviva!, limited but pfotractedmilitary co nflicts (external dimension).

(pmp zone:0.5-0,75 ; I zone:0.5-0.25)4. Full scale civil war with or without external military

involvement (internal dimension). Full scale militaryconflict with one or more enemy nations (externald imensio n).

(pmp zone:$.75-1.0 ; l zone:0,25-0.0)Hjgher of the two values along internal and external

dimensions would be selected for computation and situationdescription pu rposes.

The measurement schema discussed so, fai may berepresented and summarized in the following manner:

Performance values corresponding to mid-point segmentsmay be interpreted as the quantization levels of the variables,Sampling interval of the quantization levels is then given by the0.25 I on the viability continuum of 0.0 ) to 1.0 I points.

Viabiiity Continuum :-Zone of chaotic Zone of distur-conditions bed condition s

Zone of via- Zone of maxi-ble perfoim- mally viableance, performance

l(i) il (r) lll (r) * rv (t) *0.0 disrupt- 0.25 poor regu-

ion of lation ->regula- -->

torYprocess

pmp--

'f rv(,1) + ilt (l)

0.75 highest 1.0level ofregulated-ness.

0.5 high levelof regula--->ted ness,

0.0 0,5

il (l)0,75

t(l)1.0

Meftodology oj Investigation

?Q-:--

* l(r) il (l) llr (r) *

27

lv (r) "-

0.0

eg--* i(^)

0.25

il (i ) ilf (l)

0,750.5 1.0

tv (r) *

0.0 % 0.5%

pu--* rv(l) * lll (l)

e%

il (^) I (l)

3% 13.5%

0,0 0.25

and so qn..

0.5

Diagram No.3

0.75 1.0

Mapping of I zones into the petfdlmance zones ofsystem vatiables.

The schema shows the mapping of the performance zone

of vafiables into the corfesponding zones of a viability conti-nuum, Any given value of a system variable may be conveitedinto its viability (l) measure by'a mapping of the two scales ofmeasurement. Conversely a given ,\ value of any variable may

be tianslated into its perfoimance value.

Computation of system Viability (Z) I

Viability of the system as a whole during a given pefiod

may be computed from the viability estimates of its performance

vectors (state variables). The mathematical expression forcomputing the value of system viability (Z) is given as below:

n'. , /Z- E lful/N

;:1 | 'l

Where fu is the viability measure of the vector 6 i:1,2,,.,.,...., n and N is the total number of performance vectoisregulated bY the system control.

18' Cybernuic Anaiysis of ltiian Societal Systeni

Let the State variables (vectors) Xr, xs,____, x6 of ?system satisfy the eq uation s,

xi - f; (X, U); i : 1,2,--.-, ..Where X is an n-dimensional vector of system,s state

variables and U is the control vector. System state at time tmay then be represented by

J t^o ut "' i,Now in Z computation, the period under consideration is oneyear. ft can potentially be as small as one has data for. The i,

state variables over a one year period are given by the values ofeg, ae, N, ue,--.-*et etc ; in terms of their annual given andcomputed estimates.

Hence state of the system at I is given by,

Zt : lxr dt,,i - 1,2.__*_, n.

Substituting the empirical values of the stateconverting them into their viability estimates ir, we

z,: jtl'l dt,orzl: ! l^, 1t:'l ' 't

. . Normalizing the expression in terms of the number ofvariables involved, we g'et

nZt: > lr, l Ztrt

r,:1 t .'t/Where N is the total number of the regulated state

variables. and I is equal to one year.

The regulator ol a self-regula\ing ,system has to regulate

the course of its basic performance variables i.e., keep them'yvithin their appointed rimits. If any of them ciosse' criticalthresholds, a state:of system instability is signified. Th" ;ui;;and magnitude ot instability is direcfly relateJ to the n;;be;--;;

xn if dt is discrete.

variables andhave,

Methodology of Investigation 29

variables ciossing their thresholds and the extent of their

departufe from their appointed limits. In the present context, ifthe course of any vilriable enters the | (,\) segment of (0.0-0.25)'

a state of the political and/or government instability would ensue.

Such a state of instability engenders major policy and struc-

{ure changes in the regulator i,e., the government. The variables

whose entry in the | (l) segment produces such a destabilizing

result are the ones that enter into Z computation. They are

pmp, ae, eg, ae, , pu, et and Idf' Their regulatedness directlyand immediately affects the stability of the regulator i.e., thegovernment. Education (ed) and population growth (pg) are notdiiectly related to government and/oi political stability. Expecta-

tions ol socii (es) are the resultant of government stability (gs)

and leadership tactor (ldf). This variable is not directly regula-table by the government though it affects .the governmentstability directly and inrmediately. The value of N in Z computa-tion therefore comes out to be eight.Estimation of the Initial Values:

For simulating the system or com puting its viability (Z),

the initial values of system variables and their viability need to be

estimated. Values of eg, pg, ed, ue, and pr can be estimatedfrom the published statistical data. Qualitative variables like pmp,pu, ae and el howevcr belong to : dilferent category. Their esti-mation involves the same issues as those encountered in viabilityestimation. The procedure outlined there needs to be supple-mented by the following two additional step.s :

(viii) A{ter placing the situation within a tr zone or itscorresponding perlon:rance zone, select a mid-point value between the segment boundaries as atenatative estimate.

(ix) Determine the final estimate according to a method ofsuccessive averages and/or maximum likelihoodestlmationr in the light of the best available ihfor-mation to reduce placement uncertainty.

1 For a dlscuselon of maximum llkellhood estimatloni see, B. Gelbaum &,J. March, Mathematics for the Social and Eehavioural Sclencts, W.B.Saunders Co. Phlladslphia, 1969r Pp 23il.40'

30 Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal Systn

The above procedure ieduces the estirnation error ofparametefs exponentially in accordance with the followingexpression 1:

Pn:Pl u n-1

Here Pn is the error probability after n successive averagesor approximations, P1 is the initial error probability correspond-ing to the first midpoint segment estimate and a is the fractionby which the error probability is reduced after each successiveestim ate,

In the situation discussed here, aftef a variable has beenplaced in a segment, the first mid point average may have amaximum error of+0,125 in a range of 0,25, This would connotean initial maximum error probability of 50o/o i.e,, Pl :0.5. Eachsuccessive average would reduce the error by 0.062, 0,091 and0.0155 segmental points i.e,, corr6sponding to maximum error

probabilities of 25o/o, 12.51o and6.25o/o respectively i.e,, a 2-1 :0.25,

u3-1: 0.125 and a4-1:0.0625, This would mean a maximum

error probability alter second, third and fourth estimates asunder:

pz: (0.50) (0.25) :9.125

P3: (0.50) (0.25) (0.125) :0.015P4: (0.50) (0.25) (0.125) (0.0625) : 0.000s8:0,001

They may be either positive or negative and in a processof summation it is likely that some of them may cancel out eachother in the aggregate value.

The simulation algorithm however makes the estimation ofof many variables unnecessary' This is because the algorithmitsell generates the values of many systems variables. The

I Thls functlon is based on tha error rcsponse probabllity reductlon offearning thoory. See for example, Rlchard Atkison et al. An lntroductionto Mathematical Learning Theory,,John Wilsy; Neiv Yoiki 1965, Pp. 16.16,

Methoilology of Investigation 3l

values ol only pmp, et, ldf, and gs (for the preceding period)

need to be estimated. Variables pg and ed are usually avail-able from published data. The rest of these are generated by

the algorithm. Generated values of the relevant eight variables

may then also be used in Z computation.

Nature of the System Simulation Algorithm :

Simulation of a system replicates the operation of intefnalsystem processes within a model. The nature, direction andpattern ol internal system processes and exogenous impactson the system are here given in the diagram of systemdynamicsr. Simulation model reproduces the course of a

system over a given period, The simulated course provides an

unambiguous basis for verifying the past, present and futuresituations in a society. The situations in the present contextare defined by the changing values of the system variables, Forsome variables i.e., economic growth, price rise, unemployment,political instability and change of government, the confirmationis direct. Others like politico-m ilitary pressure, public unrestand ethnic tension are confirmable indirectly. The indirectconfirmations take the form of a consistency of variation in thevalues of the concerned variables. Higher and lower values ofpu and ef are for example directly relatable to the greater andlesser number of cases and incidents observed duiing theperiod concerned. Another form of indiiect confirmation isthe contribution they make to tho values of the variables likegs and es. The values of theso two variables aie diiectlyreflected in the modes of political instability and governmentchange. Convergence between the computed value of Z andthe value of GS determined by the algorithm serves as anotheimode of validatio n.

The algorithm for simulating the behaviour of a societalsystem is also based on cybernetics. lts theoretical basis isprovided by Wiener's principle of entrainment of fiequencies.According to this principle, the constituent paits of a dynamicsystem work synchionously so thit their frequencies match one

I Dlagram number one in chapter one,

JZ Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

another.l In postulating this mechanism, Wienerwas guided by

. the case of electric power gcnerating system in which throughnegative feedback, a number of alternators can maintain a sharofrequency despite variations ol load. The {requencies pull oneanother together or "attract" such that slow alternators arespeeded up and fast ones slowed down. He noted entrainmentin very diverse situations e.9., the flashing of fireflies in unison,the maintenance of crystalline {rom in snowflakes, the lumpingin the periods of asteroids, the diurnal rhythm in many animalsetc. lts implications for organizational behaviour have alsobeen examined,: In the context of the dynamic system understudy here, the principle applies in an analogous manner. ltimplies that in their dynamic operation, the institutional pro-cesses are functioning together at a matching and compatiblepace.

The matching pace of processes here means the matchingof variables in the arcs of the feedback loops. This matchingof variables within an arc implies a matching of their co-varia-tion over the viability continuum i.e., their i values are converg-ent over the period of their co-variation. Such a convergencebetween the I values of the two variables leads to a correspond-ing convergence between their performance values, Theirrespective perform ance values correspond to their common r{

measure. This {ollows from the preceding measurementschema of mapping the performance zones of the system varia-bles into the zones of a viability continuum. In this way, thesuccessive matching of the I frequencies of loop variables leadsto the generation of their performance value for a given simulat-ion period.

The simulation algorithm is based on the Wiener's law asdiscussed above. lt governs the sequential determination of

1 Norbert Wienet, Nonlinear Problemsin Random Theory, Lecture 8, TheMIT Press, Cambrldge, Mass., 1958. Also 'The Mathematics of Sell-Organizlng Systems' in Recent Developments in lnformation & DeclsionProcesses, eds. R, Machol & P. Gray, Mac Millan & Co,, New 'York, 1962

p, 14.

2 P.N. Rastogi 'A Cybernetic Approach to Organization Effectlvcn€ss,CybeneticaVol., Xll, No. 1' 1969.

Methoilology of Investigatlon 31

the values ol the system variables. An estimated value of thepmp acts as an exogenous lorcing function on the multi-loop

closed system of a society. The I value ol pmp then detei-

mines the matching l value of tu. The I value of lr and ae thenpfoduce a matching I value for eg which however may also be

affected by the external impadts. The final ,\ value for eg along

with that of pg determines the compatible I value for ue and pr,

The sequence continues in this manner leading to the tr value ofgs. This value affects the unvarying potential value of /dfandproduces the actual value of ldf lor the concerned period. The

actual stature of ruling leadership varies from period to period

in accordance with the varying performance o{ the government

i.e., gs (tr), The actual value of /df (l) and gs (I) then determlne

the es ()). The value of 9s (I) along with that o{ ed (tr) deter-

mine the value of ae (l) for the next period. The computation

cycle of the algorithm terminates at this point. The conversion

of I values into performance values then yields the values of

system vafiables in appiopriate perqentages and scaling magni-

tudes.

Themes of inference and Validation t

Simulation of system dynamics permits the following

themes of ietrodictiv€ confirmation and predictive inference for

all societal systemsl :

(i) By estimating politico-militafy pressure through a maxi-

mum likelihood procedure, a preview of the system

state for a period f -|n with reference to the present

period t may be obtained, This knowledge of the

future system state would be in terms ol the whole

configuiation of vafiables given in the system's multi-loop structure, The supplementary requirements here

I This Methodology including the same invariant rslationships of the slmula-

tion algorithm has besn applisd to soci€tal systams as diverse as Brazill

France, India, Nig€ria and USA. The retrodictive confirmaltion and

predictive lnlsrence over a simulated period of two decades 'and mote

have been obtaincd In a consistent mannsr, (Rastogl' 1972' 73' 74 and 75)

in all the five cases'

34 Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal System

would be a knowledge ot Z oi GS for period t*n-land the values of education (in terms of literacy &emphasis on research and development), populationgiowth and potential leadership factor ldf,

ln so fai as Government as a societal institution is thecontrol subsystem of society as an adaptive system,the passage of any directly regulated vaiiable into the'collapse zone' of viability continuum (0 < l(0.25) wouldsignal an impending state of government instabilityi.e., a failure of the system iegulator in a principal areaof system performance. Suih a period would beassociated'with major policy and structure changes inthe government and the political system.

The mode of political Instability and/or Governmentchange may be ordeily or disoideily, depending uponthe closeness ol Z oi GS values to the polar limits.Systems in higher I zones would display orderlychange owing to their higher innate vitality while thosein the lowei zones i,e., GS < 0.5 niay be disofderly.The probability of violent changes, revolutions, coupsand chaos would increase directly with the approach ofGS values towards the collanse zone.

The same would be the case with the duration olpolitical instability. The periods of political uncertain-ty may be short lived or prolonged dependidg upon theZ or GS values. In the case of highei system viabilityvalues, Wiener's law would iectify the unstable situat-ion (s) depending upon the (relatively short) peiiodrequired for the equilibrial matching of frequencies.Higher I variables would pull the lower I variable (s)up. The reveise would be the case in societies with'low values of Z or GS. Here low l variables wouldpull the highei ones down. Themes (iii) and (iv)piovide a basis for understanding the absence of sucha class of situations i.e., prolonged and disorderlyinstability in the political systems of developed socie-

(ii)

(iiD

(iv)

. 'Metlndology af lrwestigatton . tS

ties. The feverse is the case with some undeidevelop-ed societi€s of Africa, Asia and Latin America.

' (v) In the case of societles in higher I zones whefe mostol the variables may be peiforming viably, the changeof government would be exclusively piedicated afound.

, . , the variable es unless it is overwhelmed by suddenexternal military piessu re.

(vi) Government change in stable societies i.e., ed>0,S,is explicable in terms of the GS and es values duiingelectoral periods. A sequential deciease of GSvalues i.e., GSt< GSt- j and correspondingly es (i)t <(l)t-l during an electoral period would provide a basisfor prediction iegarding the lack of success of theruling party. ln the case of marginal differences the

' situation would be one of c/ose electoral context.' Highef GS and es values favour the stability of theregulator unambiguously. .

(vii) Values of the economic variables fike economic grow-th, unemployment and price iise generated by the

. model a1e directly testable against the iepoited valuesof these variables for the corresponding. periods.

(viii) Vqlues of the qualitative variables like administrativeefiectiveness, public unrest and ethnic tension are

, indirectly confiimable. A conslstent coriespondencebelween their vaiiation in the system,s simulatedcoufse and the comparable situations (coiruption,inemciency, 'mass pfotests, violence, riots etc.) in theconcefned societies during those periods would serveto validate the model results.

(ix) Values of leadership factor variable are also similarlyconfiimable. Periodic public opinion surveys on thepopularity of the ruling leadership may help in thevalidation of this variable. Random exogenous impactofcurrent events (History) on the value of /df is how_ever not generated by the modet. Exogenous variablesrequiie monitoring for the inseition of their valuos inthe system,

35 Cybernetlc Analytis of Indian Soeietal System

(x), Expectations o{ socii are most directly confirmable.

lf the value of this variable comes down to 0.251 or

less, it signifies an impending change of the society'sgovern ment,

Gonclusion

The major semantic dimensions of the methodological

framework outlined in this work may be summarized in the form

ol a hyper cube as in the diagram number four.

The issues of the regulator stability and system viabilityare here seen to be congruent, Z computation estimates the

system viability in terms ol the contiol capabilities of the system

regulator, i.e. the government. GS estimation computes system

viability in terms of the comulative impact of institutional press-

ure on the system regulator. Convergence of the two system

viability measures underscores the logical validity of the con-

ceptual and methodological apparatus developed here.

The cybernetic picture ol society here is on€ pulsated by

dyriarnic processes within an invariant lrame provided by

Wl6ner's law. The majof determinants of . societal viabilitythat may lead the system towaid a trajectory of Z and GS maxi-mization are the high values of administrative effectiveness and

the low values of politico-military pressure and populationgrowth. All the three determinants conjoin together in prope-lling the system configuration from one viability zone toanother,

It et ho dolo gy of Inv estigation

M€ASUEIME TS

cHAf{6 E g

37

cLASSIflCAI|O S

v,++#t4lrfgff#€

cor'loEt0rls

i, : 3:3q] sr.bh Ph'!''

r { o.25 = f,.lql ot Chan!},. tl{iri. -

Itirtnlic Oin.n3iona ol M'lhodologY-l g!|lldltrY

* Dt.€rrm tutlb$ -lv ,.

YJ

Path of Conternporaryme, fndian.,Society (1 961-77)

Time path of a socidtal system is generatedtion dlgorithm for.. societal systems.

by the simula,l .

Equations of the slmulation algorithm and..system viabillty :

Nature of the simulation algorithm based on the Wiener,sLaw of the Entrainment o.r Matching of Frequencies has beendiscussed in the prqceding chapter. Here we mention the for-mulae and the types of equdtjons used in the geneiation of asocietal system's simulated behaviours. - They -are given . as .

foflows: '.,,, ':.'. : .:..

GS.':'1'1-tpg) (i) __,,--.::.ttThis equation states the relationship between government

stability (GS) and the total pressure on the government (tpg) attime t. Time unit of simulation heie is one year i.e., t: 1 year.

u,rut: lx It-lt*----(ii)

fi-, Jl ^r,,dt + J:-. jl ^'d,\dt:

J:-, J; ^ uo^ o'tJl-,

J: ^*

I,l.-,t

AX

.*_*_(iii)

__(iv)*-''l ^

, Ir | -h

fime Path of Conlemporary lndian Socleryjs

AX^ul=lt ----(v)

For a varlable u

.I,\ullr

l*rlI

m

j:a

Rt:xt i:1

----(vi)

Here, x and y are system variables (vectois)' ex and ey arc

random exogenous impact vectors on x and y' I I x I t and

I I y I r are the viability spectra of vectofs x and y at time f'

t'-1 to t is the system's cycling time i'e', 1 year and o to I is the

iange ot l continuum. Equation (iv) represents the precedence

anJco_variation relationship between the viabilities of x and y.

Equation (v) represents the equivalence between them at time f

p t ) in equation (vi) represents the set of M precedent u.qtiu!].t'

ol.u..Thenorma|izedadditivityoftheirviabililiesdeterminesthgviability value of u. Viability spectta I I x I refers to the differen'

tial regulatedness ol the constituent and cognate parts ol the

performance vector x and their resolution into a point estimate'

The mathematical expression lor computing

viability (Z) through the viabilities of its iegulated

givcn by :

l^,1 ,f' ----*(vii)

the system

variables' 'is

wheie I I i I is the spectia of iegulatedness of the I fh perfqi''

mance'vector and N is the number of the regulated performance

vectors' Both tr and Zvaiy between 0 and {' The variables

(vectors)involvedinthecomputationo{Zarcpmp'ae'eg,ue;Fpu, et and /df. Finally'

GE=t

Z - - - -(viii)t

f40 eybernetic Anaiysis ol Indian Socidtal Systen

is the last equation type. Jt refers to the equivalence of GSand Z cln theoretical grounds. The'values of Z and GS aie foundto be in close agreement in the simulation of societal systems.

Processes and Events in Indian Society during 1961_77period :

Early sixties saw the development of tensions with Chinaover Tibet and the Chinese territorial claims against India. Aggd{en and large military attack by China in tSOZ tea to India,sdefeat. A war situation with pakistan deveroped in Kutch areasih 1964, lt was followed by a major war between the two.nalions. in 1965 when pakistan tried lo change the status ofKash.mfr by force. These events reflect the impact of exogenousmilitary pressure (pmp) on the lndian system.

MonSoons failed for two consecutive years in 1965 & 1966leading to a difficulf situation of food shortages in 1966 and.1967, Period from 1965 to 196g was marked by serious economic_and political instability (low eg, GS and Z and high tpg), Sece_ssionist violence by Nagas and Mizos in Assam, seperatistmovements by DMK party in Madias and Akalis in punjab,emerged and grew, Student unrest, food riots, labour agitations,lingUistic disturbances and communal disordefs occuired inmany parts of the nation. A violent movement of extreme leftcommunists (Naxalites) also emefged during this peiiod, Theseevents signified a situation of increased et, pu, fuj and the endo_genous dimension of pmp.

In 1967 elections, Congress party failed to win majority innine out of seventeen states and could obtain only a nariowmajority in the rest. politics of defection involving a frequentchange of party affiliation by the legislators, emerged as a newpolitical phenomenon (low values of GS, /df and esj.

Economic situation became critical due to mounting militaryexpenditure and the shortfalls in agricultural production. publicsector worked poorly, Currency was devalqed by 36,bol" in ,l966.

'fime path bf Contbmporury Indian Society ..41

An economic recession set in 1965-66 and continued upto 1968

(low values of ae and eg and high values of ue anil pr). Thissituation began to change in 1968 due to marked increase in

agricultural production. lt was made possible by a good mon-,soon and the use of the high yielding varieties of wheat(weather and new technology, research and development as

exogenous variables influencing eg). Political stability followedin consequence (higher values of GS, Z, Idf and es). ln 1969,

the ruling. Congiess Party split into two. lts breakup was adelayed outcome o{ the earlier crisis in the national politicalsystem. The political section led by Mrs, Gandhi won the 1970

parliamentary election by a wide margin.

ln 1971, a tense politico-military pressure situation withPakistan developed again. Ten million fefugees from East

Bengal entered India. India concluded a mutual help tfeatywith USSR in 1971 to negate the pmp engendered by the Sino-Pak alliance in this context ('relations with othei societies'variable), The escalating situation led to Pakistan's disintegrat-ion and the emergence of Bangla Desh in December 1971.

Successful management of this serious crisis increased theleadefship stature of Mrs, Gandhi and led to her pafty's impress-

ive political victoiy in March 1972 state elections (ld;rvariable).

lmpressive electoial victofy of Congfess Party in Maich

1972 elections is hence accounted by the mafked inciease in the

value of /df for Mrs. Gandhi during the electoral period. The

value of her actual ldf and es however decrease later in theyear owing to a decline in system viability (GS' Z). They implythat the success of Congress Party would have been less im'pressive had the elections been held latei in the year. Tfiepaity would have however still won owing to the relatively higherleadership statufe (/df) of Mis. Gandhi as compaied to that ofthe fragmented opposition. Higher values of pu and et andlower values ol GS, Z and es over the 1972-14 perlod are iefloct-ed in the growing volume of economic chaosr civil disturbancesand political instability dufing that period,

'4t Cybernetic Anaiysis oilndtanSocieial Systen

. The year 1972 was marked . by wide-spfead public distuib-ances in Assam ovef lhe issue of language and in Andhia,Pradesh over lhe issue of the seperation of Telengana andAndhra fegions; Caste tensions, labour unfeSt and communaliriots continued to occur. Students agitated extensively inDelhi, Puniab,.Andhra and U.P. over a wide vaiiety of issues.All these events added up to a disquieting situation of publicunfest (pu) and inteinal divisiveness (ef).

, The year 1973 was much wofse. lt was marked by wide-.spiead linguistic disturbances in Mysore and Maharashtra along-with the continuence of {he separatist agitation in Andhia. pre-sident's rule was imposed in Andhra, Manipui, Orissa, pondi-

,.qhqfry and U.P. owing to administrative chaos and political in-stability. Communal. riots, civil disturbances ('bandhs,), toodagitations ahd student unrest occurred in nearly all the states.'Widespread strikes by locomen, state government employees,. power plaht engineers, airlines personnel (,go slow' and 'lockout'), textile workers, junior doctors, and transport opeiatoisdistyrbed industrial activity and social life extensively. . Faction-alism in the ruling party intensified in most states leading toieplacement of ministries in sevefal of them.

" High Values of pu and et in 1974 weie evidenied in a wideand. prolonged student movement against corruption in Qujarat

'leading to the dissolution of the state legislature, an unsuccess-ful but costly strike by railway unions and a wide public move-

4ent involving students in Bihar. Bihar stir was led by theGandhian leader J. P. Naiain who demanded the dissolution ofBihar assem.bly. rJ.P. also called on the police and army personnelto disobey the unjudt and repressive government orders, Murder

'of icentral railway minister L. N. Mishra, attempt on the life oflChief Justice A,N. Ray and alleged ,conspiracies' against theilife of the them Prime Minister contributed to the deterioratinglsifuations. Civil administration and the Iegislatures were gettingparalysed, Further random uncertainiy was introduced in the

'prevailing situiition by.an adveise judgement of Allahabad HighCourt in an election petition against Mrs. Gandhi in early 'June

,fime'fath oj Contemporary lndian Society 4t

1975. Under ihese conditions, the ruling government declared astate of emergenoy on 26th June 1975 in order to preserve itspolitical interests. The measure was ostensibly aimed at deal-

ing with the economic menace of black money hoarding, black-marketing and smuggling. But it was later used widely for ad-rninistrative excesses and the suppression of political dissentand opposition.

'The assumption of wide powers by the governr.nent and.the..support extended to it by the state organs like bureaucracy; pblieeand'military, confirms the stability of the regulator empirically'(higher:values of Z, and GS in 1975). Further validation of 'the

ianallsis.is provided by the convergent values of Z and GS'andthe consistency ol their variation in time. The ineffectivenessof the agitation by the disunited opposition parties also attests

. to the same conclusion.

:''' . ''.-The most immediate and direct.impact ol ttie bmergenby

measures was on Administrative Effectiveness (ae) variable. tts,'vdlrie'is lnterpreted to go: uprby one third of a }.segment. i.e,, ilsnew value becomes 0.51. This inference is supported by theimproved conditions observed throughout the country duiing

ithis period:: offic'e staff became 'punctual; social :didcipline in-,creased, strikes, demonstrations and gheraos stopped, trainsbbgan to rud oh time, ticketless travel declined, smuggling de-

'creased, tax recovery increased; black money operators weielrestrained, price and availability of essential comodities im-'proved; educational institutions began funotioning peacefully,and the overall crime rate went down. Higher value of this (ae)

yaiiable affected other system variables in a corresponding'manner. Values b{ the system variables for 1975 reflectthe above changes, Econornic grqwth tate foi '1975 was

i also markedly affected by a very good monsogn. It con-

trthuted very materially to the upward swing of system' viability (2,

GS) in 1975 and thereby helped the ruling leadership in improvingt'it{ image(hwher es and ldf) during the I.atter half of 1975 and

earlY 1976,

44 Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Socie:tal Systettt

Bureaucratic and administrative excesses in the implemen-tation of the family planning programme (forcible sterilisations)during 1976, very adversely affected the standing of the rulingleadership and the government. Continued detention withouttiial of a large number of senior political leaders and workeis, arigid suppression of political dissent, the subordination of basiccivil liberties and the buildup of Sanjay Gandhi created a re-pulsive, nepotic and repiessive image of the ruling government.These highly negative developments along with the resignationof dagiivan Ram lrom the government and the Congress Party inFebiuary 1977 further adversely affected the prospects of theruling'party in Maich 1977 parliamontary elections (lower valuesof Z, GS and the highly adverse random impacts on the value ofldf in 1976 and 1977).

Exceedingly poor performance ol the ruling party and itsloss of powei in 1977 elections is accounted by the followinglhemes ot inforence (outlined in the third chapter) :

(i) Decrease in system viability in 1976-77 as compared tothat of 1975-76 i,e.,Zt*1<Zt and GSt*1<GSt.

(iD Marked decrease in the /df value of Mrs. Gandhi andthe ruling leadership owing to adminlstrative exc€ssesin the family planning pfogramme and the highfy ie-pressive nature of her political measures. Such a de-

crease repiesents the random exogenous impact ofHistory (current events) on the endogenous 'Leader-ship factor' vafiable. This decrement brings down heractual ldl {rqm 0.621 to 0.501 i.e., below the collectiveldf value of the senior opposition leaders led by Jaya

Piakash Narain, Such a precipitate decrease accounlsfot the electoral defeats ol Mrs, Gandhi, her son and

their close associates.

(iii) Deciease in Mseives to decrease es fiom 0.831 to0.25,\ i.e. €s,+1<esi in 1977.

Time Path of Contemporary Indtan Society 45

ln an analogous manner' it may be stated that the tuling

patty would have won by a substantive margin, had the elections

been held a year agot i'e' in March /976 or earlier' Values of Zand GS for 1975-76 were higher than those of 1974-75' The

bureaucratic excesseg had also not much affected the value of

the /df at that time.

Simulated Behaviour ol f ndian System during 1961-77

Period:

System simulatibn output for the lndian societal system

during the seventeen year period is represented in a tabular form

as follows. A gfaphical representation of the changing values

of GS and Z during this period is aslo given alongside'

Cybernetic Analysis oflndian Societal Syclem

orrro$oo

<EoPu) ro rr) '60

oooci

^ \o -o*;'la_t8 $ E g g s Ro.i=otaoo oood

qq dSfe$soC) (pro$c)Oo'

sfF- (c) lO (Ot \t^ ,ro, 6l . .l-i -: -: ..j

at d)(o rar !.l:l .rl). .

$tf,r')6t€iooo

g I a-Sgoo .o oo Fa.: 'r,FrAra: $ES,fr<., a -ooo dodo

pF ff*ss$ s$ae;; o.jco 'rlooo odocj

.3 ^\. lJ'a)dRissB ssEE*:9 o o'o d o'o d

df *3 s $ H H s eOI€DF-Oc|'c' oOOO

56(,.f$ e E;o.r==-o

e€,i gE kEg-,I fiE5 E 6 : g p

=.. { E E - f €

€EEEF**3=*EE €EE€,PRE':€-E*>i G6.d<bfiso-dEEgd iff

' \o -o -EE :l&-+s$*oo 616r Fcjocj

;\oqE -oB-=€3gSo o F.) <ej & o'o cj

(O-ro \foo

F- c\lr+-too

00(9g)

F@g)

(o(oo)

(oc')

E

CD

g)

(0

c{(0o,

o()

oo

(U

46

I.-f-(l)o)

6r '6

o3z.t!SJ.:trt=l- q-'o

q)an

o(.,oF

47Time Path of Contemporary Indtan Society

(cl*QE!coArzt@6c1o(qo-

99.o9999Jror..?99sEHiSisSsSsr

99999999oS,,99ng Cn lrr (Jl 5.E'Ol><\o SF(0ortsreoo-.lo-"-s--.1

999P99990-!e99Nl('I('I (,r('rS ('r19O-.1 5('|(roooocDl\J\o\oro(Do(,r o\ o\ o\

o=No=

{oozo19

oo

c(D

{

(o{N'

99?99999n:.|F99s3$BsasRSscr9999999Sr,:.rEr99sH$$$sessssr

geegeeeF=PeeB3&SSSs$s\tBo(ro_o_Sb

gePePe.oNFeeg\EAASEB$$Et56_ 6F )e

eePeeeexseeer\2(rss(r.i?i=gBSiB E r€ F g .'r t o- ;q ql

P9999P9F--!!'99(D 6, gl gt as .tr' A (O \o c') (llt clls5q)\d(Jr*t.-ca-\o-o

(o{g)

(o-l5

(o{C'T

__.1

c')

(o{_.1

48 Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Socletal System

67 69 7lTIME

->IilOIAN SOCIETAL

T osoIII

3

! o.'3

o.33

Tlme Path of Contemporary Indian Society 49

Viability values ol the Indian system are heie s€en tooscillate in a narrow band around the stablity threshold of 0.5.

During the 1965-67 and 1972-74 periods, the system manifests

serious syniptoms of internal instability. It has hdwever been

relatively free from the situations of acute political chaoscharacterizing numerous other developing societies, This has

been possible despite the immence problems of poverty,

external military pressure and internal ethnic divisiveness. The

explanatofy variable here is the leadership factoi whose high

value prevents the value of es ffom descending into the collapse

zone of 0.25 l. This variable however reaches the low values

of0.26 andO.253 in 1965, 1966 and 1967and 0.27 and 0.26 in

1973 and 1974, These low values signify the tremendous

magnitude of destabilizing internal and external pressures during

the periods of acute dioughts in this primaiily rural society.

The oldest and the ruling political organisation in the

country, Indian National Congress broke down under the impact

of the first such crisis period. The political system itselfreached a bieaking point under the impact of the second

instability period. The second period also saw the emergence of

the politics of mufdei. Murder of central railway ministei,

attempts on the life of the Chief Justice and alleged conspiracies

against the life of the then Prime Minister highlight this aspect

of political instabilitY'Cumulative impact of administiative coefcion and suppfes-

sion of political dissent in 1976 led to a steep erosion in the

leadeiship stature of the fuling regime and its collapse in the

March 1977 elections. Viability values of the system at Z 20.50during 1976 and 1977 however account for the peaceful and

orderly nature of the political processes leading

to goveinment change. Political violence and disorders are the

charactefistics ol societies wittt low viability (i.e. GS < 0.50)

and low /df.

Time Series Validation of lndian Society's Course :

The following table compares the results of system simu-

lation with the available evidence foi the peiiod under review'

It illustrates the natufe of ietrodictive confirmation for the

economic and political variables,

Inilian Societal System

.1.9 I IC,!

=9- ;;o oi-l

-*o q I

-i-

troD : Iturs =u6 tdt

=-g€Eg E I

?(D6Err)(gF:E6tc\lc.jcciddC

at

Cybunetic Analysis ofa,h: L :1, EJ

-: 5 X oo=+(ui=E*9-€EE=E E* 2.3 9Et TiX .= o,) os o(oI 6E;S.= 3g o-B EEE: OiE 6

- -(r, - 15 -.g 't ..I=E * EA;I EE€E€2 s5 3.2 E 6:€6 g

E&Eooo

ro

EEOO

:e!3 ;e ;e ;R ;s ;e;9o?oqqqAi"?oq.?d;odF;<;jcrirt

ltl>e ;9 >9o?eblO g) Ot

\o \o \oatso -+

'be >ssi

d '-d + d f,,{(Y: rrt cri 6i oi od

ll

\o -o -o \o \oil- "g S $ a*B'rrtdtrt-6id

€q a?6l c\t

6

u? otgJ

,GIoa ro (0 (oaanu?oooo

qr(9r--ts<tsrctciddd

lrt(l,Foor r r8FF

AtF(t)ro r''dci

6t 6tro roci ci

o, r+(Et (c)g, 6)

F t\rcloo

Gt (0(D CD

(0 c{@u?a

o0

ott)c(It

Lo

=

auJ

@utf,

tuJf

oEG

E&IL

CI'

oIJJ

Eo[l

v,(9

d(D

50

(cgt

oEooqtE

T'Eooo

.a='ot,Zau$JGo=<FL.='o

6

oc.9(,It.E

ooooo.EF

51

d;Iol

2c:o)ts

<8JO (c!6q 5

..O cLi;o o.=g u,o6.;ar c 6.!*: P6

?; EE€ 81a>E IEz- cir ,

"iJ &i

FE-F ECE ;Fg: F ;E:g

$aeg=iHe$ ;€gg:i':€iE

g}

.(E

xx(D@!tEec-oqr(J

C)'to-

o-(t, . JEdo-F(l) F CU'=5hoz 9=6o =--c,!6<=rlll

qt \9 +

Ttme Path of Contemporary Indian Soclety

oc.E

I

sEDq)E

rfq qEfr\Ed EROOoooOOOO

;g ;ex>R:e"-e;eo! oq Fr oq a? (€ (Y)

r-FiotSS&F

ltllltllf *ddsf d*lrtFiSS&+@d

I*f***S*f*f.*o S Iri.fot$e+c(t

I

Fco(o|f,)c{ 6 @ 61t c\| 6D c\tor!:| rcr $ .<r .ir l.ct ltt ll)dctdddciod

S>ee6@

GIOro E)oo

e al G2 .\t 1ct ro FFFI\FFFFFg) €) o, o) g) (t) o) o)F

- T F

II

xnt

-L'>sro<c;

ddd

:e s>e:e$;e>e ;e;eco co € a? T T#q - \+c'j6ic.ioolriajoid' c;>j

>e be >e "-E< >e >9ao 6, + o >< f>e 6 |rt .+ _ o c.j :"b 6i I

rl:l(ou?o

u?o

ot@o,

FI\6l-FLt-fd)u?u?"taau?oo<>ooo

?tro(,aa

ozulJoF

52. Cybernetic Analysit of Inilian Societal System

An averaging process here is essenl ial in the context of thevalidation of results. The periodicity of the system cycles has'here been accorded a constant value of one year. The actualcycling period of the system may however vary around this meanvalue, Anofher discrepant factor is the definition of the yearaccording to Calendar and the financial year (April to March)used in the computation of official statistics. Values ol ue heieagree with the estimates of 30 to 40 millions unemployed personsin the country. During the drought years, this figure increasessharply as the millions of peasants and rural labourers becomeunemployed during these periods,

Validation of other variables like pu, et, ae and ldf ispfovided by the consistency of their variation during the normaland the difficult periods of the system.

Failures of the Control Cycles in Indian Societal System I

Output of system simulation depicts the failures of societalcontiol cycles in the Indian system. Indian society isseen to be affected by persistent politico-militaiy pressufe, lowliteracy, administrative ineffectiveness, low economic growth,inflation, unemployment, internal disoiders, social divisivenessand low system viability. lt has however the advantage of a highldf lactor which distinguishes it from other underdevelopedsystems.

A tabulation ofthefrequency ol non-viable variables overthe last 17 years attests to lhe fecurfent failures of the most ofthe system cyles. Such a table is given as follows :

Ffequency ofIndian System

Table l{umber 4

Non-viable Variablesfrom 1961 to 1977

6i

in the Behavioui of

Variable Criterio n Frequency (N:17)

1. Politico-m ilitarypressure

Ad m in istrative

efiectiveness

Population giowth(given)

Economic Growth

U nem ployment

Pf ice iise

Public unrest

Ethnic ten'5ion

Governm6nt stability

System Viability

Expectations ofsocii

Litefacy (given)

Health (given)

pmp

ae

ps

10

15

17

10

12

13

.11

2

7

7

5

17

17

3.

4.

5,

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11,

12.

13.

eg

ue

pr

pu

eL

gs

zes

ed

ht

Persisting low values of these variables define {he natureof malaise characterising this system, They attest to the poorhealth of the system i. e., its low viability. Thdy are simubtai:neously fhe causes and consequences of their cyclic interactionthrough the dynamic connectivity of system cycles, Theyconetitute an interrelated set of blocking factofs in the develop-ment of this system toward higher viability, Theii rectificatlonhence requiies a comprehensive strategy of total syslsmdevelopment.

..

The Course ofthe System upto 1980

Cybernetic algorithm pefmits the simulation of a society's

course in a logically invariant manner. The pioblems however'

arise in respect o{ the impact of random exogenous factors on

the system from period to period' The following random exoge-

nous impacts for example acted on the lndian societal system

during 1970-77 period, They influenced the society's course ina vaiying manner :

1, A very good monsoo.n (1970-71).

2, Influx of ten million refugees from formet East

Pakistan (1971)

3. War with Pakistan (December 1971) producing a delay-ed impact in 1972'

4, A drought situation in 1972.

5. A fourfold increase in the price of petroleum incfeasing{he cost of imports from Rs. 252 crores to Rs. 1100

crores per year (1972-73).

6. ,A severe drought situation in 1973 and part of 1974.

7. Allahabad High Court's judgement against Mrs. Gandhi

. in an election petition (rJune 1975),

8. Declaration ol a state of emergency leading to improvedadministrative effectiveness (June 1975).

9. Coups in Bangla Desh (August and November 1975),

I Computatlon presented in this and th€ precedlng chapt€r were madeduring A ugust-Septembe r 1975. Tho values of /dt and es havd.besnrecomputed, The dlagrams however show all the values as orlginallycomputcd.

fh, iouri, oi the iystem uPto 19do

10. A further 10 pefcent rise in the price

(Octobei 1975).

&i55

of petroleup

11, Administrative excesses in the implementation of the

lamily plapning programme (forcible sterilizations) in1976, continued suppiession of political dissent and

\ the exit of Babu Jagjivan Ram from the Congressgovernrnent and party in Febfuary 1977. These random

events (impact of current historical events on the lead-

ership factor variable) veiy adversely affected the

image of the ruling leadership (Mrs' Gandhi's /df [,\])in the context of the March 1977 parliamentary elect-

ion s.

12. Unity of the opposition parties (Janata Party's emerg'ence) brought about 'by the elder statesman Jaya

Prakash Narain within a short period of one month

onlY.

These.fandom exogenous factois and the magnitude[oftheir impact could not have been fofeseen in 1970 or 1972. They

illustiate the difficulties of predictive inference for 'periods longer

than a year or two. The process of piedictive infefence is how-

ever supported by a relevant theorem from cfreinetics. ltstates that large complex nonlinear systems are irisensitive tominof variations in their variables and parameters. The basicnature and direction of their course are not substantively affect-ed by minor changes in the values of the system variables.

Hence the process of prediction would not be seriously vitiated

by small errors in estimation and smail random ferturbations.This however would not be the case i{ the changes involved are

large and substantive or the impact of small changes is cumula-

ive in the short run. Change in the /d/(l) value of Mrs. Gandhi

in 1976-77 was such a large and substantive change.

The petiod fiom 1977-80 :

Simulation of the co urse

to resolve tho problemof lndian sooiety up to 1980 has

ol random exogenous impacts,alEo

i6 Cybernetic Anaiisx o7 in&n Soaeui,Sysran

These impacts may broadly be divided into the following threecategories:

(D Level of politico-military piessure from othei societies.(ii) The scale of indigenous oil production.

(iii) The magnitude of potential drought situations.

Each of the above three categories is further subdivisibleinto higher and lower, more serious and less serious. They mayalso variously combine together to produce diversely varyingsituations over the coming periods. The following four typesof situations are proposed for simulating the systemis course:

(1) Continuation of the present pattern ofpressure upto 1980,

(2) lmpact oftype (1).

(3) A hisherim pact oJ

indigenous oil piod uctio n

and

(4) A lower and declining level of politico-military press-ure and the impact of indigenous oil production,

1Each of the above lout situation classes subscfibes

lmpact of emergqncy on ae would gradually disappearby 1977. The variable would resume its natural valuegoverned by the endogenous system variables only.l

There would be a drought in 1979 followed by a moreserious drought situation in 1980,

politico-military

on the situalion

(l)

(ll)

level of politico-military pressure and theindigenous oil production on the situation

not hold in any ofsystem over thethe absence ofdiscussed along

To the extent these two assumptions dothe situation class, the performance of theperiod would improve. Simulation results indrought situations have however also beenwith some other possibilities,

1 Thls assumptlon firet made durlng August 1975, has alrsady proved t9 be

00rrect.

' ihe Course oJ the SYstem upto 1980

Rationale behind the Seleclion

AssumPtions:

si

of Situation TYpes and

Politico-military pressure is the most important exogenous

factor driving the system toward instability. lt may persist atthe current level or increase to a higher level or decline to loweflevels. All the three variations with their differential eonsequenc-es have been selected for system simulation. Petroleum is be-

coming a more and more costly hatural resource because of

its economic and political importance, lndia currently imports

more than two thirds ol its annual requirements, The consump-

tion of oil is moreever going to increase in the context of th'b

country's industrial requirements. lndia has some proven

reserves of oil, The scale of indigenous oil production over the

period however remains uncertain' On the basis of a recent

analysis, the contribution 'of oil savings (i'e.' annual revenue

minus annual proiect Gosts) to economic growth has heie been

estimated at 0.2o/s, 0'60/o and 'lo/o during 1978' 1979 and 1980

respectively with some variations.r lmpact of production in

1976 and 1977 has been ignored owing to its relatively smaller

volume. Moreover, the gains from additional annual production

upto two million tons would be nullified by the annual price in-

crease by OPEC. The annual increase in the cost of oil imports

to the extent of 10"/' a yeaf offsets the modest gains of small

indigenous production during'1976 and 1977.

The basis for envisaging a drought situation in 1979 and

1980 is provided by a seven year cyclical pattern observed in the

empirical data over the last thirty years, The consequences of

recuiring droughts afe becoming more severe with the increaee

I The basls forthe contributlon of oil savings lo eg has been arrived astollows:Year

197819791980

GNP estlmate@ 3% annualgrowth

Rs. 2284C croresRs, 23529 croregRs. 24234 crotes

Undiscountedsavings irom oil

production.

Rs. 34.5 cror€sRs. 129.7 c]orsERs, 244.3 cror es

Contribution to egrare.

O,15o/o '

0.56%1'o T"

These fioures lor oil savingt ars given by V.S. Hebls- ang A'P' Patkar'';d;-;i;v", Hi;h cori'biiini Anal-vsls', thr Economic TImes' sePtem'bor 1, 1975 p.6.

sd Cybcrnetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

of population. They have led to a growing volume of grain,im-ports during the crisis periods, The data may be repfesentedin a tabular form as below :

Table Number 5

The Gyclical Pattern of Dioughts Between 1943 to 1974

6rain [mportsDrought years Gap inYears

1943 and 1944

1950, 1951 and1952

'1957, 1958

1963, 1964

Jul! 1965 toJune '1967

.July 1972 toJune 1974

Great Bengal Famine

lmport of 4.8 million tons ofcereals in 1951 ; 3.93 milliontons in 1952.

f mport of 3,65 and 3.22 milliontons in 1957 and 1958 respect-ively.

lmport of 4.56 and 6.27 milliontons respectively in 1963 and1964.

lmport ol 7.46, 10.36 and 8,37

million tons respectively in1965, 1966 and 1967.

Substantial imports

7 years

7 years

6-7 years

2 years;

7 yeafs fromJune 1958.

7 yeais.

According to this pattern, the recuirence of drought maybe expected during July 1979 to June 19g0. The pattern mayhowever shift by a few months in either direction i.e,, to 197gor 1981.

The Concept of Performance panel :

The cou/ses of individual system vatiables together depictthe successive changes ln the system states. The systemstates reflect the differential performance of the system over agiven period. The collective trajectories of system vafiablesalong,.with those of Z and 65,would then setve to representthe

..rli;i.r'*tiF*r'*4--..,rri'lrft ittH'ltlfjr

ffheCowie oithe SYstem try'r'o ilfid

course and perfqrmance ol the system during a plan period'

Thecompositeschemao|-suchtiaiectoriesmaybedesignatedu. ,n, U.*ottance panel of the system' The simulation of the

above fout situation types may accordingly be interpreted as

yielding the basis for fouiperlormance panels' llt' may show

it"u".ring courses of the system variables lh the usual per'

ceniages and magnitudes' Altefnatively they may be constiucted

in terms of the viability (l) measufements ol the variables' The

panels in the latter case would depict the succ€ssive changes

in the viability status of the system' They would demonstrate

annual shifts in the viability specifa bl the system' Both the

modes of representing performance panels may be utilised in

coniunction to deepen our understanding of the int€fnal dyna-

tl." of a societal systent' Both the modes drc illirstfated herc'

Perfotmance panels corresponding to the fout basic situatlon

types aie now discussed as lollows:

Perfoimance Panel One (PP-l)

This situaiion type covers the possibility of continuation

of the piesent level of politico-military pressuie throughout the

period under review' lt is reckoned that the cornplex ol exo-

genous pressures (Pakistan and China) and endogenous stfess-

es underlying the present level of prnp would continue' lt i8

also assumed that the economic exigencies aEsociated with the

requilemetrts of oil consumption would also continue' The

impact ol indigenous production on a modest scale would be

ofiset by the annual price increases by the oil exporting

countfies,

The changing values ol the eystem vafiables afe given as

below ;

td

a ybemetie:An:atwt-s nj k&an' Socidai. Syst eiii

0,50 0.50,i

0.425 o.{1

. 't.4% o.zs%16% 27%'15.6% 2V/o.0.58 0.69,0.51 0.560.533 Q,583

' : . ' ,.: '

0,467 0.417

' O,tS 0-Sgof Socii

0,25 0.280.505 0,50

0.75 0,63

Following inferences emerge from the above set of resurts :

(1) A serio.us state of political and government intabilitywould develop in i979 and i980.

(2) .lt

m.ay lead {o a reimposition of .ernergency. measure6to stabilize the difficult situation.

(3) Level of extefnal economic assistance to the extent' lt 0:57,o :!o 1yo of GNF would , serve to irnfrgve the

regulation of the system during the unstable period;

0.23

0,40

ldtp I

t"r, o.r'

Ilfp o'rc

Ot' 7

o5t

.t

C,

//f,

etzo.

95

e9

Pa

ta o.1a

ir o.lz

o.t2,.i7 oo

Lt, o la?c ' P',

o.1E

c5 fr o'"ifrt o.t,

tt o.

"oge,,P .. to,4to.a.8

..17

'75 76

VIABILlTY ME ASUREME N TS( Per f ormqnce

'7e

OF INDIANpqnel 1

Zorie cf

25

"Bo

SOCTETY (1975-80)) . Crucisl Vorhbles

o 57a.5

.t

a5'z

,ot

o5o.at

o.aa,

EC

t.to.43t

nstobfity

6 +r,ac o-al0 4l pr

e,11

o -1t,o. ato.10

at

gt,ez

Diagram Number Six

. ?he'Course of thd Eittemlryto 1980' " 61 : l

(4) System perform.ance- ln""1g?5 'is the bestlfie-dwtrgT- =

the period 1970:8,9.

Viability measuiements for 1975-80 c-orresponding to PP-laie given in lhe -4igglem.number six

Performance Panel Two (PP-ll) :

This situation type 'assumes the

'sames level of politico'

military pressure as the pieceding one. [t however allows fora-growing positive impact ol the rising volume of indigenous

oil production over the successive yeais from 1977 onwards.

The resultant changed complexion of the situation is represented

in the table number seven'

Table Number 7

Simulated Coutse of Indian Society from 1977 to 1980

(PP-il)

Vafiables Yeafs 1977 19801978 1979

Pqlitico.m ilitaryPressure (prnp)Adm inistrativaEffectiveness (ae)

Economic Growth (eg)

Unemployment (ue)Price Rise (pr)Public Uniest (pu)Ethnic Tension (el)Total Pressure onGovernment (tpS)Government Stabllity

(ss)Leadership lactor Actual

(tdf')Expectations ofSocii (es)

zLeadershlp lactorPotential (/df,)

0.50 0:50 0.50

0.42 0.425 0.42

2.8% 1.s% 1.3%s.3% 13,8% 17.3%7,2o/o 12.6% 17%0,51 0.56 0.590.47 0.50 0.51

0.493 0.52 0.53

0.50

0.432.7%10%

9.2%0.520.48

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.25,., 9i806,

0.75

0r507

0.57

0.48 0,47

0.56 0.55

0,27 0.260.48 0.46

Ir

0.63

62

PERFORMACE FANEL FOR1975 tt?6

Cybernettc Analysis oflndtan Socletal Syrtem

INDIAN SOCIEIY . TWO ( PP.2)t9?1

I

l

00Fg= rga;aE!s*E

t978

| 0--_*_

Z - systern vrobrtiry l

lpg- bbl tressure on go€irfr]ef,.

.o - educotion .l

Dlagram No.7

olu/? d-

xf

3 Fg = ggEE

Cf,no- polil(o-m"iorl press.rre I p, . prce /r5e

oe - Odmnrsrotve dtecbenesg I el -ethn,( tensron

E:t8dtdg;o-3Ig'es- etpeclolro.E oi socri

Pg- Populqtion growih

of Frequercies

', - hv€atue regoqrces

e9 - economr< growlh

ue - 'Jnemgoyrnent

D! -prJDic unresl

o gs -governmerit stotil y I

-o bl -teqdershrp toclor -3

VIABILITY SPEETRA- lllustro|ng Low ot Enlrotnment

,.,/

The Cyurse ofthe SYstemuPto 1980 63

t:1;.lF

l-l;

I

o-o

='t^

@.Erg

F-XFo

>=LlJ

-

o.ZF<=6Ezs89.oh

r.r Ez Lt-

#*UJEzo>bq;ls, Ot|-Jc-tu(I

I

F

L1bd

:F

}F

;:

oA)

r!

acrt

o

oz

6

@

2{!

ao

c

o

7

oc:.z)

6z

I

Pz

e

Diagram No.8

64 Cybernetic Analysls o! Indtan Societal System

This situation type shows the contribution of substantiveoil production to the improvement of system perfofmance, Thesystem response would be even better in case the drought situat_ion is less acute than assumed, The graphical coufse of systemvariables from 1970 to 1980 and the viability spectra of the systemfrom 1975 to 1980 are depicted in the diagiams numbered sevenand eight respectively.Perfoimance Panel three (PP-tll)

This situation type deals with the possibility ol a higherlevel of politico-military pressure from 1977 onwards. Increasedpressure from Pakistan aided by its allies and China may lead'to the emergence of such a situation. The assumptions regard-ing the positive impact of indigenous oil production (as in thepreceeding situation) aie operdtive in the present context also.The problem ol developing the oil resources would rather acquirea greater.urgency in such a type ol situation. Accordingly, ahighei level of positive impact from this factor has been assum_ed here. The system behaviour in this type of situation isiepresen ted in the table number eight.

Table Number ISimulated Coutse of tndian Society from l9?? to l9g0(PP-ilt)

Variables Years 1977 1978 1979 1980

Politico- m ilitaryPressure (prnp,)Ad m inistrativeEffectiveness (aeJEconomic Growth (egJUnem ployment (ue)Price Rise (pr) lPublic Unrest (pu)Ethnic Tension (el)Total Pressure onGovernment (f pg,)Government Stability

@s)Leadership factofActual (ldf.)Expectations ofSocii (es)

zLeadership lactorPotential (ldfr)

0,56 0.56

0.42 0,412.2% :t.3%12.3% 17.3%10.8% 17%0.54 0.500.49 0.51

0.53 0.55

0.47 0.45

0,55 . 0,54

0,26 0.240.476 0.445

0.53

0.432.7%10%8.2%0.520.475

0.510

. 0,49

0.50

0.250.498

0.75

0.56

0.422.s%8.*e/o

6.5%0.5050.47

0.51

0,49

0.56

0.270.49

0,63

--

?he Course ofthe System upto 1980 dS

The results hefe indicate that the impact of oil productionto the extent of 0.5o/" to I o/o of net value added to economicgiowth per year helps the system to baiely maintain its stabiiitywhen faced with the higher level of exteinal pressuri and an

acute drought situation, The situation becomes unmanageablein 1980. This situation type may hence call for a coopeiatlonwith societies with similai intefests to reduce the level of extei-nal pressure to more manageable pioportion. [n the latter case,the system iesponse would be an improvbment over the situat-ion class two i.e., PP-|1.

Perfofmance Panel Four (PP-lV) :

This situation type envisages the possibility of a gradualreduction of pmp level i.e. an era of a peaceful co-existencewith the neighbouring societies. In such a situation, moreresources would be available for the purposes of productivedevelopment. The substantive impact of oil production isassumed here also fiom 1978 onwaids. The changed system ies-ponse in this context is iepresented in the table number nine,

Table Number ISimulated Coutse of lndian Society from 1977 to 1980

(PP-rV)

Variables Yeais 1977 1978 1979 1980

Politico-m ilitarYPressure (PrnP)Ad m inistrativeEfiectiveness (ae)Economic Growth (eg)U nemployment (ue)Price Rise (pr)Public Unrest (Pu)Ethnic Tension (et)Total Pressureon Government (fPg)Govern mentStability (gs)Leadership factorActual (/df')Expectations ofSocii (es)

zLeadeiship factoiPotential (/dfr)

0.41

0.432.8%s.3%7.2%0.510.47

0.483

0.517

0,50

0,44

0.433.5%8Yo5.8%0.490.46

0.463

0.537

0.59

0.310.533

0,63

0.41 0.41

0.44 0.442.7% 1.9%9.8% 13.8%7.8% 't2.6%0.52 0.560.475 0.5

0.47 0.49

0.53 0.51

0,58 0.57

0.30 0.290.523 0.50

0,250.515

0,75

The Course of the System upto 198066

=I

oa

I

o@

I

t\-o)

Fql

rn

z?g6Z.)-fnp69.J

zo*,-,.Lo

uazd<F>;&-tLctrJo-.

t^l"IRIl@

t-.lNI

ls]F

N

.oozI6E,fi

eIEo

LJ

s

zEA:1q:zl

2rn2lr,

zuj

:'(D

zz

o'(9

(This is diagran No. 9)PP-IY

lslpt'flxlsJP

aE

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System 67

This situation type depicts the best system response so

far, By implication, it also defines an upper limit of system

performance undef the constiaints of a severe drought situation

in 1979 and 1980. A performance panel defining this situation

class is given in the diagram number nine.

Varying Configuration of Annual Situations:Each of the abovefour situation types assumes aconti-

nuity of pattern throughout the period under review. Rising,

declining and persisting levels of pmp, impacl of oil production

and the occurance of drought, define these patterns' The

actual situations may however vary from year to year. They may

incorporate some elements from one si{uation type and othersfrom another and so on. A permutative variation of situationalchaiacterstics may occuf from yeai to year. Such variationswould naturally affect the system output for the concernedperiods. The problem of predictive inference lof a specificperiod becomes complicated in such circumstances.

Creation of a combinatory matrix of the major situational

factors may help resolve the problem of prediction for specifictime periods under varying conditions. The maior situational

factors in the present context are weather, politico-military

piessure and oil production. The weather may be classified

into normal monsoon' ordinary drought and acute drought.

Politco-military piessuie may be classified into the current level,

higher level and lower level. Oil production may simply be

classified as piesent and absent. The following combinations

of specific situations then emerge along the rows and the

columns ol a matrlx based on the above factors, as in table

number ten.

The entries in the matrix then represent the nature of

predictive inference obtainable foi the situations defined by the

intersections of rows and columns. A situation characterized

by a lower level of pmp, the absence ol the impact of oil pro-

duction and ordinary drought conditions, would for example be

represented by the intersection of row lI and column lll' Predict-

ive inference fsr this situation would then correspond to the

!oCL

o*o

3o;-{3|||frEro6:5'-PF=.8E3I*oto

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

f;rqi3

!;o<<srgdo=

Or--+| o

= .O=<E1r-o

o

9.;'!;o

=tE =A:\co<^Y

+o +

9.='g -T

='R Ti

c - -tt+o e-+{ <5-

o ='o r=5 -fiO

-*!+€o

=:

foYl

*b i=

!) str:(o*o-{.v

6--.I

a=OA'

*-o<!Y'-

it?'

(o^-T:<11*-Ji_

ql -o-

QTol f.-.J <oo

o

;!<1J(ol

3'6 cnt-," ='T-$ -1

=

=' 6'gt 3

-o 3 ,v

6eil<vq'-r

=o

i!::!

n!{t

=

n!dT

.68

o>o;j(oO

sis srgl9 3l.r i >o5.[3,;

F '-Fs^-!6!o-:_

='* o T!-. " ='iEg d-:

Bo)

(oT3T

=

;T3'10

=

i!d6T

fhe Cowse of the System upto i9A0 60

system state for 1980 in the performance panel four as indicatedby the matrix entry in the intersection space. Similarly, a situat-ion marked by the current level of pmp, the absence of oilpioduction impact and a less acute drought is represented tiythe intersection of row lll' and column l; Predictive iirferencefor such a situation would correspond to the system statesoutlined for 1973 and 1974 in table number two. In this way, a

total of ninteen specific situations have been covered here. Theyear 1975-76 emerges as the best year of the current decade.

The piedictive irlfefences in the present context are not tobe interpreted in a rigid manner. They are rather indicative ofthe nature of system response under a given set of circumstances.Contingent events and factors of a random nature are alwaysoccurring and perturbing the system, The reliability of the inferenceis based on the fact that complex nonlinear systems like totalsocieties are relatively insensitive to minor impacts. Perturb-ations of a maior nature or a combination of the minor onesmay however deflect the system response in varying degrees.The basic nature, pattern and direction of the system behaviourwould not be substantively affected in other instances

A crucial advantage of lndian societal system is the highvalue of its /df factof. This variable serves to stabilize thesystem's course by halting its drift toward government instabiliiy,Frequent changes of government with the attendant deleteriousconsequences become imperative in societies marked by highstresses and lower /d/values. Indian society has been able loescape the spectre of chronic political instability and recurrentchanges of the government owing to the high stature of itsleadership, The grim crises faced by Indian societal systemwould have otherwise plunged it into chaotic conditions. Theyears 1973 and 1974 were among the worst in the post-independ-ence period comparable only to the situation during 1965 to 1967,Transition toward a military iule or chaotic political anarchyduring these periods would have been almost inescapable but {orthe high stature of the national leadership. The same inferenceholds for the future also. The difficult situations of higher levels

fi Cybernetic Analysis of indian Societal Systeln

ol pmp and acute drought situations in future would not beeasily manageable by a leadership of lowef stature. The highlevel of leadership is needed most when societies are confrontedby the tremendous destabilizing pressuies of external menace,

internal divisiveness, public uniest and high population growth.

Development of TotalSociety Systems

The working ol a societal system is governed by the opera'

tion of i{s contiol cycles' Their intended operation in a giowth

mode results in giowing system viability' A societal system

may accordinglyle adiudged as developing if the viability ol

its variables and iegulator are increasing' lt would be in a

maximal state of development when the viability values of all its

variables become one.

The concept of development here refers to a society as a

whole. lt is distinct fiom economic development which refers

to economic vafiables only. Societal development is concer-

ned with the concomitanf ievelopment ol its economic, social,

p"f iti"uf (exteinal and internal), administrative and educational

dir"nrionr.ltsfocusisonpoliticalstability(Z'GSandes);hi;hl. an indispensable condition for economic planning'

iconomic development contributes to and is facilitated by

p"fiii."f stability. it is accordingly.an imp.ortant part ol the more

inclusive process ol societal development'

Goals of Societal DeveloPment :

Goals of societal development directly tollow {rom the

cybernetic model of societal systems in a deductive manner'

i'n.u.*"ro" as the basic goals of human living in hu-man

rrilti".. "fne

maximally viable behaviour of . societal svstems

A.-., O.ZSa l < 1.0) defines these goals as below:

(i) Human living in a world of peace and coopeiation (low

and null valUes of Politico- Military Piessure)'

(ii) Creation of material values for human consumption\"/ iftigh uufu.t of Economic Growth with distributive

justice).

12 bevelopment oj fotai Society SyslenJ

(iii) Ffeedom ffom economic pfessures and insecurity (lowand null values of Unemployment and price Rise).

(iv) Efficient and capable administiation (high values ofAdmin istiative Effectiveness).

(v) High level of knowledge, techniques andcommunications flow in a society (high value olEducation in a catholic sense).

(vi) Absence of social miseiy and disoiders (low and nullvalues of public Unrest).

(vii) Communal haimony and social solidarity (low andnull values of Ethnic Tension).

(viii) Social clima{e of hope and optimism (high values ofExpectations of Soci i).

(ix) Political stability (high values of GS).(x) System viability (high values of Z).(xi) Highly regarded ruling leadership (high values of

Leadership Factor).

(xii) An uncrowded habitat (very low and null values ofPopulation Growth Rate).

(xiii) Healthy population (high values of Health variable).

The overall goal of societal development is to increase theviability of all these constituent variables. Greater the numberof viable variables and their degree of viability the greatef wouldbe the level of a society,s development.

Operationalization of the Concept of SocietalDevelopment

Development of societies as ,rwholes,,is a concept that isoperalionalized by cybernetic analysis. lt stands for the risingI trajectories of all the system variables along with the increasingviability o! the total system (GS and Z). The task of societalplanning for societal development accordingly involves an integra-tion of administrative, economic, educatrcnat, mititary, politicat(external and internal) and social poticies for sy stem devetoo-ment,

Aybernetic Analysis oJ indian Societai Systent 1t

The integiaiion is required to augment the viability values

of all the system variables concomitantly' The prime objective

is to ensufe that l values of the variables and system viability

remain at a level higher than 0.5 and never go down to 0'25'

The various patteins of societal stability and instability as a

function of ) values may be represented as follow :

pmp ae es q9____j.l___!]_ GS1.0

0.75

HS HS HS HS HS HS HS HS

et

HS

hs hs hs hS hs hs hS hS hs

hst 0.56Irl| 0.5I

hsItltlillltl0.44

0.25

0.0

hlhlhlhlhlhlhlhl

RCH]H]HIHIHIHIHIHf

Diagnostic Status ol

HS-HYPer StabilitY.

HI*HYper Instability'S-StabilitY'RC-Regulator Change

System Variableshs-High StabilitY

hl-High lnstabilitYll-Low InstabilitY

Diagram Number Ten

This diagram shows that a societal state will be unstable

il any oi its gi-ven variables ls in the H/ cell' irrespective of the

status of other variables and GS' Political instability will be

.tiii"".*ii th".vrt"m il the values of GS are in anv of the 'l'

cells. Marked political instability will increasinglv prevai[' as

the value of GS goes down fromflf to h/ cell' Persistence of es

values in 0.25 I block will denotela societal state involving the

74 Cybernetic Anaiysis of indian Societal Systein

change of its ieguratof iirespective of the varues of GS andother system variables. Values of es in the S ceffs denote acontinuing state of high system stability. They are incompatiblewith the existence of ht and H/ values of tt

" ott

", system varia.bles. Permutative combination of the diagnostic status of GS,es and other variables define the diverse patteins of systeminstability. Efforts towards sustained societal developmentwill become increasingly difficult and,ineffective as the systeminstability increases.

The clanning priorities_heie afe logically indicated by theorder: Hl > hl > lI > S. If any variable is in a hyperinstablestate, it must have an overriding priority in the marshalling of asociety's planning effort. Guarding against disruptive contin_gencies is the preventive aspect of societal planning. lt is con-

.

cerned with checking the downward drift of any difecfly reguratedvariable toward the first i segment (i.e.,

^ < 0.2b). The

passage of any variable into the ,,collapse zone,' would implya marked failure of the regulator. A prime task of socieiatplanning in this context hence becomes the prevention of suchregulatory failures. This pieventive aspect of planning andmanagement complements the directive aspect of higher systemviability, Both are concerned with maintaining and increasingthe regulatory capacity of system control for societal develoo_ment, The diagnosis and prognoses of system states assumeimperative importance in this context. Both of them are unique_ly tacilitated by the construction of performance panels forsocietal systems.

Performance Panels for Societal Systems:This concept has been explicated in the preceding chap-

ter. The collective trajectories of system variables atong withthose of Z and GS serve to represent the course and perfor_mance of d system during a simulated period. The compositeschema ol such trajectories is designated as the performancepanel of a societal system here. performance panels depictpast problems and luture prognoses. They ihdicate the deficientareas of development. Directions for changing the course ofa system may logically be deteimined on their basis. A collec-tion of such per{ormance panels for a society would serve gsa guideto its future behaviour under different sets of pfe-speci-

beveiopment of fotal Society Systems

fied conditions. Such a collection of performance panels

the lndian societal system was worked out and outlined inpreceeding chaPter.

Quality of Societal Life :

IJ

forthe

Quality of societal life is a cognate concept of societal

development. lt difters from the related econornic concepts

like standard of living and per capita income' It is rather an

integration of some basic societal factors that shape together

the nature of social living in a society. Lives of masses are

affected by social tensions engendefed by inflation' unemploy-

ment and internal communal disharmony. Health and educatio-

nal statuses of a society as defined by the life-expectancy and

literacy levels of its citizens, are other important characterizers

of citizen's lives in a society. Government stability affects

societal living as a determinent oJ administrative and political

processes. Quality of societal life (QSL) m ay then be defined

as a {unction ol these five variables as below :

1t 11

QSL : l | (hl*edl-GS-f Puf et) dldtt Jt-l Jo

The values of this function reflect the conioint and chang-

ing impact o{ these five variables. lt changes in accordance

with the changes in its dependent variables. Computations of

QSL for Brazil, !ndia, Nigeria and USA are given as in the

following table and graphically illustrated in the accompanying

diagram number eleven.

76 Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Sociaat Systenr

T tME ---,-->Diagram No. tl

tr,lr

J

gl(,oatto

EJ

ta

65 67 6t 7l

Developmmt oJ Total Society Systenxs

TABLE NO.lI

Quality of Societal life in Four Societies (t961'75)

Years Brazil lndia Nigeria u.s.A.

77

1961

1962

19631964

19651966

1967

1968

19691970

19711972197319741975

0.4700.4460.440

0,4300.466

0.4740,5080.5340.5400.5440.558

0.5700.576

0.5600.560

0.4620.4400.4700.4720.4540.4420.4480,5020.4860.4800.4760.456o.4220.416

0.490

0.3940.4040.4050.3960.4100.3740 3320.326

0,3800.4020.4080,4300.4500.4100.386

0.6800.6980.686

0.6960.7120.7120.6820.6860.6720.6620,6820.6900.6700.6500.644

The table and the graph show the time'varying behaviourof this function for the lour societal systems. The viabilitythreshold here is also 0.5 I in accordance with the viabilities ofthe constituent variables. A prime task ol societal developmentmay in this context be defined as that of increasing the value

of the variable QSL for a societal system.

Methodology ofSocietal Planning

The fundamental basis foi a methodology of societal pian_ning is pfovided by the multi-cycle dynamics of a societal system.System's dynamic pattern enables one to identify the most sali_ent system variables, the most important constiaint variables, themost controllable variables and the control interaction amongstsystem variables. Analysis of the input (lf and output (O,)links of variables leads to these identifications. Total numberof incoming and outgoing links (l l,+> O,) associated with avariable indicates its sa/ierce (S) i,e., ielative importance in thesystem. The number of links received by a vaiiable (E l,) indi-cates its constraint position. Constraint value of a variabledepicts the number of inputs that determine its behaviour. Vari_ables emitting Q O") the largest number of links are the mostimportant from the control point of view. The ratio of their out_put to input links (X O', /x l,) indicates lheir controllabitity. Thisratio shows the relative influence of a variable on other variablesMultiplication of this ratio with the salience value of thevariable yields the controllability salience (CS) of that variable,Controllability salience ol a variable shows its relative importanceand responsiveness to control within the system structure,Constlaint position, salience and controllability salience ofsocietal variables may be outlined in a tabular form as below;

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System

Table No. 12

Constraint Position, Salience and

Sa lience of Societal System

79

GontrollabilityVariables

SocietalVariab le

Co nstraintPosition(t l")

Salience ControllabilitY(, l"+> O,) Salience

/> o'' \(Et,+Eo,)\>l'l

rl

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8,

L10.

't1.12.

13.

'14.

15.

pmptr

anl

ue

puetG52tdf

edhtpsrel

5

4

3

o

4

4

6

3

3

4

3

5

3

3,3

12.0

1.5

3.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.0

5.251.5

1.5

12.0

1.5

3.3

1.5

3,|

24

2

2

2

4

4

2

2'l

2

3

2

lnspection of the above table provides {ollowing importa.nt

information for societal planning :

t1l Most important Constraints:

(i) eg, et, gs.

(ii) pmp, pO,

1. lnciudes Weather as exogenous variable in the coniext of Indian

system.

2, Includes tho linkages of tpg'

80 Meftodotogy of Society planning

[2] Most Salient Variables :

(i) ss,(ii) es, et,

(iii) pmp, pg.

[3] Most Controllable Variables :

(i) ir, ed.

( ii) ss.

(iii) ue, pi, pu.

This classification of variables reveals thfee different butmutually consistent vantage points for a planning pfocess intotal society systems. The first set shows the most importantconstraints that impede the development of a society. Thesecond set shows the most salient variables whose regulationwould in principle be sufficient to piomote socie{al development.This follows fiom theii multiple connections with othei vari_ables. The fiist and the second set emeige as identical, Thisshows that the most important sy stem variables are simultane-ously also the most important coBstraints in system development,The third set shows the variable$ most responsive to planningand regulation in terms of theil felative impoitance. They arethe logical levers of change in system behaviour.

Dynamic structure of the system also ieveals the patternofcontrol interaction amongst its constituent variables. Eachsystem variable outputs (O") and ieceives (1,) a set ol links toand from other variables. The set of input links received (1,) bya variable is however a part of the output set of links (O,) fromsome precedent variabte. This pattefn is opeiative throughoutthe interacting system. Intersection of input and output sets oflinks provides a basis for identifying the control interactionamongst a cluster of variables. Such intefactions highlight theproblems of iegulating a given vafiable. Suppose one is intefested in the control of Piice Rise (pr), Diagram of system cyclesshows it is receiving two links-Population Growth (pg) and Eco_nomic Growth (eg). But eg is also an output from Investible

Cjtbernetic " na$sis of Indian Soctetal System 81

Resources (rr). Hence control interaction factor C, between prand r'r is given by:

c(pR, tR)- lt'.n l,"l IEGnEG'PGl ,I tt, I

t- -'

tu;=;:'t''Here Or, is fie set of output links from ir, lo, is the set of

input links to pr, the numerator denotes the cardinality of the in-tersection set of (Oi) and (lr,) and the denominator, the cardi-nality of the input set (/p"). Examining the interaction pattern ofpr throughout the system, we find that control of pr interactswith the contiol of ir, ae, ed, hl, rel, pmp and GS (or tpg),

Computations of the control interactions of pr with othervariables may be outlined as {ollows:

c ( pR, EG) : -L?#+al - | ur'eB-0lG'.pG | :o

i.e., there is no interaction heie. Null interactions are

omitted in the following computations :

c (PR, AE) : +*+: t re#-tFre? t :r,zIn ,..] lr" IC ( PR. ED ) : -r

\''P"!' | |

ll"lI AE,HL,PG,REL n EG,PG I

I EG, PG l":,tlzc ( pR, HL ) : I o,'i-r0-.!sJ- : ll9 !^+!l9l :1/2

I r,. I IEG,PG I

c ( PR,REL): I o""z fl lp" I i PG' EG 1 EG' PSJ:1pIr,"T- - *

|"EG,-FGT-

The regulation ol PR interacts with the regulation of these

variables. There are however two other variables whoge

regulation interacts with the regulation of PR. They are given

as below :

c ( Gs, PR) : J-of#+I PU, ET n PU, ET, PMP, ES I :112

82

C (PMP, PR) :

Dwelopment of Total Society Systems

I Oe, i lr*, I

I ln*, I

I PU, ET n PU, ET, othef societies I ^,^@:tioThe control inteiaction of pr with othef system variables

may now be summarized as follows :

Vaiiables :

Control [nteraction:FactoF :

Precedent Variables I eg, F9

Control interaction factors here signify that any attemptto regulate price rise would involve the conjoint regulation of theabove five variables in a consistent and compatible manner inaddition to that of the precedent variables. Inconsistencies bet-ween the policies for their fegulation and the regulation of pricerise would make the regulatory piocess ineffective. lf any ofthem is in the H/ or i/ diagnostic category, it may disclose an

important source of the problem. The analysis hefe hence showsthai in order to control inflation, a government has to undertakeconjointly a number of relevant measufes concerning economlcgrowth, population growth, administration, communication withcitizens (ed), investments in the economy, reduction of politico-

,military and total pressuie on the goveinment in a coordinatedand mutually consistent manner.3 Relative em phasis amongstthem would be determined by their diagnostic status i.e,.H{>hl >ll.

1. Multlplication of a control interaction factor wlth the salience ofthevariable concern€d would servs to bring out its relaiive importancellrther. Salience of a variable is glven by the total number oJ links-in_comlng and outgoing associat€d with it.

2, Rollgion and Health here may bc vlewcd as part of the precedent varia_ble pg in the context of the regulation of pr.

3. Thesearealeothe measures requlred {or the regulalion of unemploy.mont. UE and PR possess ths same eet of sysl€m linkageo, Unemploy_ment is horyever aftected by the precedent variable pg In a different manner.Because ol the age factor Involved, a reduced populafion growth ratewould produce its lmpact only after a perlod of 1E-l8 years,

d€, ed,

tl112 112

ir, pmp, 65, (ht, rct)z

tlrtl'tl2 213 112 (112 U2)

Cybernetic Analysts of Indian Societal System

Control interaction factors of the most calient (they are

also the most important constraints) and the most controllable

variables may also be similarly computed. They may be repre-

sented row wise in a matrix form as follows. Interaction of

public unrest (pu) is also included in the matrix. lt is one of the

most tangible aspects of malaise in a society.

The total set of control interaction variables is hence com-

posed of the following subsets :

83

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

the precedent variab les.

those non-zefo entry variables with reference to whom

the input set of variables (El") is in the denominator.

those non-zero entry variables with ieference to whom

its output set ol variables (rO,) is in the numerator.

ln the case of population giowth rate (pg) lor example,

ed, hl and /e/ are the precedent variables; ir and ed are intei-

acting variahles where (lpg) is in {he denominator and ef and

pu are other intefacting variables where (Opg) is in the numera-

tor. The total set ol interacting variables for pg is accofdingly

given by .'

fed, hl, rel, ir, et' Puf

Regufation of pg, therefore implies the conioint manage'

ment ol these variables according to their contextual relevance.

This pattein of analysis is now illustrated with feference to

the problem o{ inflation in Brazil.

Problem ol inflation in Brazil is a chronic one. In tefms oi

our analysis, a definitive answer to this problem emerges.

oCo)EEooq,

o

:lo-

Development oJ Total Sociery Systems

(DC\I

(D6l

(,

c2c\l

*G

=o.

6l

s

c\l

-f

$

(DUI

s

s

$

tt

6t

c\I

l-I ee

+l$*i$

84

JLUE'u)

UJJ(9looe

|rId0J

o'nG,FZt!OGc'Joz

(lt.=Otrta2f(.D

trlJOOFFFO

=ltL o-o2xorrtrO|rIElrjEo=

rr.r

JoFzOL(J

o-l

r- tr.I

!Eg

aybernetic Anaiysis oJ kdian Societal Systenr

An i-rTspectioii''-of'the-'couise of this society from1970-75 feveals that none of the problem associatedvariables i,e,, ae, ed, ir, pmp, GS and eg are in Hl and hl Slatus

(Diagram number twelve). This leaves only the population

growth rate which indeed is very high. 'lt is in the magnitude of3,5o/o annually inclusive of immigration, Accordin3ly, the unam-

biguous inference that emerges here is that rapid population

giowth is the primary cause ol inflation in this society. Analysisof the situation by simulation algorithm supports the above in-lerence and leads to following definitive conclusions about thenature and resolution of this problem :

(1) Biazil would not be able to solve its inflation problem

il its current rate of pg i.e,, ) 3,5o/o per year continues.

(2) Brazil would be able to reduce its annual rate of pricerise to 6% if it is able to reduce its pg rate to even3olo (inclusive of immigration), lt however presupposes

the continuance of its curf€nt economic growth rate at9% annually in real terms.

It would be able to attain high price stability i.e.,

pr:2,61s only provided it is able to reduce its pg rate

to 2,3o/" and increase its eg rate 1o 10o/o annually.

Brazilian society would relapse into the chaotic patternof inflationary spiraland political instability of the eaily .

sixties if the politico-m ilitary pressure on it increasesalong with the continuance of the piesent pg tate.

The accompanying diagram number twelve. com-pares the two possible time paths of .Brazilian society.One outlines the continuation and developm€nt ofcuirent {rends. The second depicts the impact ofhigher politico-m ili{aiy pressure, The problems ofinflation and public unrest continue in the first case,But they amplify menacingly in the second case lead-ing to recurrent political chaos and economic ciises,

85

(3)

(4)

86 bevelapment of fotai Society S,ystezr3

t

tltc 6!1i

Hr€EE.Er|

r 8'-E=e'I ii .I-

3 r a;c - ii:t Jtni:a 5re ! li,E5$.t

"lrt:"

7

c

ti?,tEE

0il,e6

a,oalrl

to

t

8.o

I-E.a6tIU=aL

o

E6:I

a

c.tl

!

ct

o

c|lt\EY

tl

t-_J-

o

ItI't-t-IJ-:Ir.1"

I

ll-;

\la f Iil,g \PI!:|a

8t,--

Diagram Number Twelve

Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societal Systetu b7

The Achilles Heel of Nigerian societal system is €thnic

tension ie,, its internal tribal divisiveness. lts destabilizing role

stems ffom religion and history (i,e,, exogenous variables affect'

ing ef from the outside) and is aggravated by the socioeconomic

problems of price rise and unemployment. The latter are ir-1

turn bound up with administrative effectiveness, population

growth, education and political instability in an interlocking

pattern. Despite its iecently acquired large oil wealth' it may

not be able to solve any of its maior problems as shown by itsfirst time path in the accompanying diagram number thirteen'

On the other hand, il it is able to reduce its population growth

to 2,3o/o and impiove ae, it would be able to avoid the spectre of

recurrent political instability i.e'; the value o{ es would stay at a

level higher than 0,251. The two time paths of Nigerian system

are shown alongside in the diagram number thirteen'

Blocking Factors of Societal Development

Next phase of the planning methodology for societal deve'

lopment concerns the identification of the blocking factois of

societal development. They are revealed by the recufring and

persisting values of vaiiables in the Il, hl and Hl categories in

ihe performance panels of societal systems' These blocking

factors are simultaneously the causes and consequences of a

society's lowefed viability. They may differ lfom society to

society. For Brazil, India, Nigeria and USA, the identifiable

blocking factors may be stated as below:

Brazil l (i) | nflation

(ii) Public Unfest

(iii) UnemploYment

(i) Politico-militatY Pressure

(ii) Low AdministrativeEfiectiveness

lndia:

88 beveiopment of fotal Society Systemi

Diagram Number Thirteen

+ :

qilE"s- 5|-

€;;;9:

.Eri!t.9 lE"rll. 'i9l 'r- z ti'5'sBE,""Eti"tilcg

l_ot.t{l-t"l!

i".t

o.tJ:!F

(t

tltrlII

I\

{aoo<tc;

Cybernetic Anaiysis oi Indtan Societai Svstem 89

(iii) Low economic growth

(including agriculturaldeveloPment)

(iv) UnemPloYment

(v) Inflation'

Nigeria: (i) Ethnic Tension

(ii) Politico militarY Pressure(primarily endogenous stresses)

(iii) Public U n rest

(iv) Inflation

(v) LeadershiP Factor

(vi) Low AdministrativeEffectiveness

(vii) UnemPloYment;

U.S.A.: (i)Politico-militaryPressure.

(ii) Low Economic Growth

(engendered by energy crisis),

Planning lor societal development would hence aim at

eliminating these blocking factors that impede the progress of a

society toward higher viability. In the context ol the conjoint

regulation of variables, this aspect of planning leads to a para-

digm for the planning methodology'

A Paradigm of Planning Methodology

Such a paradigm may be outlined as follows:

It consists of a number of sequential steps that are' linked

together in a cYclical Pattern.

0d bevelopment of fotai Society Systens

Validated fim" pflfr and performancePanels of a Society for a decade or moie.-

I

I

I

i

Frequency ot sv(l'L, Variables inNon-Viable Diagnostic Categories,

(ii i)Classification of the t\ion-viable Variablesinto the ll, hl and Hl Categories-

'=---,the Blocking Factors,.

(iv)Order oJ Planniirj Priority for the

Variables i.e., , Hl>hl>llI

I

I

Specification ot JI]".u"nt Variablesand Control f nteractiori Factors.

Diagnostic Status of the Variables in (V)and the Order of Priority amongst therir,'

91Cybernetic Anaiysis oi Indian Sociemi Sysiem

(vii)Formulation of Policids, Decisions andActions Involving all the Precedent andControl lnteraction Variables coniointly '

Ii

.i

II

(viii)Testinq for Mutual Consistency and Non-contradiction amongst the Policies,

Decisions and Actions.II

I

II

I(ix)

Extension of (viii) to All the Variablesldentified for Planning in (iv)

(x)lm P lementation

I

I

I,lI

(xi)Monitoring ol the Res

I

I

I

I

(xii)Computation ol the Changed' of the System

I

I

I

tI'I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

t

3

ooqq,zo_9ooq)

ults

Time Path

Diagram Number Fourteen

s2 beveiopment of Total Society Ssytenti

(i) maximization of system viability i.e.; GS,

(ii) maximization of the quality of societal life and

(iii) maximal use of the most controllable variables viz.,education and investible resou rces.

The implementation of the above planning paradigm forsocietal development would require the creation of a sensitiveand adequate management information and control system foithe monitoring of a systems' status, behavioul and randomexogenous factors,

Routes of Societal planning

Societal viability and political stability is the primary focusof planning lor total society systems. In terms of this globalobjective, primacy is accorded to the regulation of any variablein the Hf diagnostic category. lt represents the preventive as.pect of the planning process and requires the conioint regulationof a set of interacting variables. In its forward and positive as-pect, the planning process may proceed along anyone of thefollowing three routes :

They are considered one by one as below.

(i) Maximization of GS depends on the reduction ol pmp,et and pu, They are the three constituents of fpg. Reduction ofpmp reiluires the conscious pursuit of a peace policy by agovernment, The outcome of such a policy is however essenti_ally uncertain. Reduction of el and pu primarily depends on theregulation of eg and pg. Eg depends on ae and ir, Administra_tive effectiveness depends on ed. population growth dependson ed and h/ which in turn depend on lr, Hence in the finalanalysis we are led to ed and /r as the two basic measures for

Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal S2stem 93

increasing GS, Schematically, the analysis may be represented

as below :

peace PolicY

(ii) Quality ol societal life is constituted of GS, pu, et' ed

and f/, Schematic analysis here reveals the following :

(a) GS

,'^ecr jt as in (i)

(b)

as in (i)

(c) ed

I

.i:hl

pu, el

(d)

94 Development of Total Society Systems.

Thus here also we find the same two bassic underlyingmeasures.

(iii) Education and investible resources are here the verypoints of departufe for societal planning.

We hence find that all the three planning routes convergetowards the same starting points. This convergence is how_€ver not accidental. lt accords with the developmental experi_enca of the communist societies. The planning process of USSR,China, Cuba and East European nations has historically beenoriented around these two bases. They have attempted a maxi_mal mobilization of internal resources for investment in the eco_nomy. For this purpose, they have severely restricted internalconsumption and kept wages at relatively low levels in the initialstages of their development. They also initiated intensive drivesof propaganda, communication and ,re-education'to reach downto their individual citizens through party cadres and mass media.They tried and succeeded in removing illiteracy within histori-cally very short periods. Their planning strategy as backwardsocieties is hence seen to be based on their sustained manipu_lation of the two most important controlrabie reveis of societalsystem c hange.

Communist societies however seem to have escaped therelentless pressures of a high rate of population growth facingthe developing societies of Africa, Asia and Latin America.Population growth with its very high salience disrupts the deve_lopmental process by amplifying the stresses of inflation and.unem ployment. lt is a very important causal factor underlyingthe malaise of poor and backward societies apart from the ex-ternal impacts of energy crisis and deteriorating terms of worldtrade. The success of communist societies in managing theirpopulation problem whether by accident or design is hgwever

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Socletal System

entirely consistent with their highly literate citizenryr'*. Educa-

tion emerges as the dominant influence on this aspect of theirdevelopment process apart from its impact on their administia-tive effectiveness.

The planning route {oi societal systems is hence seen lopass through ir and ed, Low population growth rate as a com-mon characteristic of the developed societies is the direct out-comc of their fully literate citizenry.

Communist societies have been able to develop by follow-ing a planning strategy oriented around lr and ed. Their highliteracy has enabled them to manage the problems of populationpressufe. Westein societies historically received their investi-ble resources through colonial expansion (positive exogenousimpact on ir and ed). High level of their literacy and knowledgebase has enabled them to reduce theii population growth andincrease productivity. Backward societios are on the other handcaught in the cumu!ative ill-effects of ignorance (low ed), poverty(low ft) and numbers (high pg). Education (including populationreduction) hence emerges as their most effectlve optionr

The Process of Societal Transformation :

The strategy of planning and development of total societysystems outlined here would be applicable to any illiterate andill-developed society. lt does not lower the imoortance of eco-nomic gr6wth lor societal transformation. lt iather recognizesthe constraints implicit in attain;69 high rates of economicgrowth i.e., its nature as a high constraint variable in a societalsystem. The transformation strategy therefore approaches thetask of development by changing system behaviour through a1 The relationship betwe€n education and the drastic decline in birth rate

achieved byabackward sociely like China is brought out by Victor Lithus : 'Perhaps the greatest changes were achieved through education.

--. a decision-maker in China believes that educationcan affect people's behaviour, Everyone in China is involved in a processcalled "study' in which group€ of people discuss topics ranging fromfamily planning to the Thoughts ol Chairman Mao. Ouring ,,normtl"per,ods, the Chinese average len to twelve hours oJ study lvery week,Suchatremendous and sustaineil educational process covering €verysingle citizen every day produces lasting changes in ths citizen's- attitu.des and behavlour. lt leads to the results desired by na onal leader-ship in many areas including lamiiy planning. China is estimated tohav.e reduced its population growth rate from 1.8% in tha flfties to 1.8%in lhe seventles.Carl Djorassi 'qirth_ Control in the People's Republic oi Chlna',etat, T!t9 Bulle.tin of-- the American Academy of Arts and

scr?nces, Vot. XXVll, No, 8, 1574, p, 46,

95

Development of Total Society Systems

dominant (i.e. the most controllable)Economic development then followsplanning strategy.

lever of system change,as a bye-product of the

Education as the basal lever of societal transfoimation im_proves administrative effectiveness which in turn promotes eco_nomic growth by increasing the efticiency and productivity ofresource utilization. Education here also serves to reduce thepopulation growth rate severely, The reduced rate of populationgrowth reduces inflation immediately. Unemployment howeverremains'unaffected in the short run. Reduction of price rise andunemployment is the main function of economic growth in thesystem. Reduced population growth rate hence takes over apart ol the role of economic growth in the present context. Itthereby lessens the pressures of public unrest and ethnic ten_sion on government stability. Higher government stability onaccount ol lower public unrest and ethnic tension tends to reducepolitico-m ilitary pressure and improve administrative effective_ness. Lower politico-military pressure leads to more investibleresources which together with, hlgher administrative effective_ness generate further economic growth, The societal transfor_mation thiough education aims at generating endogenous pres_suies toward self-sustained economic growth in a system,Overall development of the system follows in consequence.Education is hence seen to be the sole basal factor of transfor_mation for the backward and poor systems. lnvestible resourcespresent a serious limiting factor fof them on account of theirpoverty. The process of system transformation initiated byeducation may be depicted as follows : (Diagram No. 15)

Development of societies is a continuing process. After asociety has acquired a fully literate citizenry, its further develop_ment depends on a continuing reduction of population growihrate and politico-military pressure. With zero rate of populationgrowth and low values of politico-milita iy pressure, a societalsystem would be able to enter the hyper stable (HS) ione ofmaximum system viability.

96

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal Systems 97

ED

v

The Process of System Tronsformation

hig

hrg

lo and lo'

{I

ower puI

YI

ower pm

I

YI

igher ir

Diagram Number Fifteen

Some Core Problems of IndianSociety and the Limits of

their Solution

Viability of a societal system depends on the viability of itsvariables, System variables with low viability feflect the problemsof the system. ln {his chapter, we examine some of the pro-blems of the Indian system and investigate the reguirements ofth6ii solutions individually. The problems of inflation, un-employment, .qconomic growth, administrative effectiveness,public unrest and ethnic tension are dealt with here in thismanner. Methodological considerations of the precedingchapter have however pointed out that these requirements can-11ot be met unless a number of the ielevant interacting variablesare iegulated togelher in a conjoint manne,.

Inflriiion: The prime detelminants of inflation are theeconomic gfowth and the population growth. Exogenous factorslike the higher cost of imports and the scarcity created bvweather are other random factors that influence the inflationarvtendencies. Current rate of population growth in India ls estiinated at 2.3o/o. Treating it as a constant, the annual rates ofprice rise corresponding to the varying rates of economicgrowth are given in the diagram number sixteen, ,price Rise,Economic Growth and Population Growth Rate., The relation-ship shows that given an economic growth rate of Bo/o in realterms, the corresponding rate of price rise would not be lessthan 6"/o. At Za/c eg rate, the pr would go up to more than 11o/o,With eg rates of 1o/o or so during a drought period, the pr wouldshoot up to 18fi or more. For containing price rise to 4o/o only,an eg_rate of 6.50/o would be needed. Such high iates of eS ho*_€ver do not appear to be realizable in a sustained manner atpresent,

Cybernetic Analysis of Inilian Societal Systems 99

s

tg

IlttI

I

ur '14t/l

9t?ct.o

r0

z

LJ 50"

6

2Z

- Rclotionshrp betwcen Economlc Ofowthond Frrce Rise Corresponding to populsG{owth Ro.te ol 0.9 %

I ---- Rctotionship bclwc.n Economtc| . ond Price Rise Corresponding toI - Orowth Rote of Z 3 %

GrowthPopulotio

I

IIIII

IItItI

III

II

I

I\

\I

IIt_. ,_3golo > PR>22,t^

\- ,/ 30"/.<EG66S%

,\-/--ir-/ \ -\ --l\l--\ -\.- / \'-\\\ _/\_ \

6^' ', ' ' ' ' 'l, 'l- ' ', , , , ' , r t

i O 2 4 6 E l0t2t1 lG

l)ERCEI{T ECONOMIC 6R0wTH -+Frice Rbe , Eeoicnnc Growth ond Populotlon growth Rgtg

Diagram Number Sixteen

100 Some Core probleus and Limits of their Solution

The inference follows that under the present conditions,the problem ol inflation would continue to persist as unreeolved

unless the pg ra\e is reduced. With even sllghtly highet'ratesof pg, the rates of pr would be dispioportionately higher. lfhowever the pg iate can be brought down, the impact on prwould be direct and immediate. Foi a given level of eg iate,the price rise would then be lower, ln the event ol a pg rate. of0.9o/o the iates ol pr corresponding to the some rates of eg afeshown in the unbroken curve in the diagram, Economic growthrate of 3o/o here would produce a price rise of 3.8o/" only; eg iatesof 6.50/" would lead lo a pr of only 2.2oft. With 4o/o ordinaryrate of eg, the system can achieve prlce stability at 3o/o of priceiise only. With lower rates of pg, the price stability would be

still greater.

Unemployment; Population growth and economicgrowth are also the determinants of unemployment in the

system, Reduction ol pg rate in this context would however

affect ue only a{ter a period, of 17-18 years. In the immediateshort fun period, ieduced pg rates affect inflation only,

not employment. Relationship between unemployment and

economic giowth at the level ol 2.3% population growth rate isdepicted in the diagram number seventeen. The relationshiphere shows that for reducing ue to 3o/o, 'l0o/o eg rate would be re-quired. For reducing ue to 5o/o only, an eg rate ol 7.5a/" wouldbe required. With 5% eg tate, ue would peisist at the level of6.50/o of the total working population. The inference here

emerges that this problem can effectively,be resolved only aftera period of 17 years from the year of reduced population.growlh rate, With a pg rate of 0.9o/o, ue would be brought

down to 4o/o only through an ordinary eg rate ol 3/o. At2.3o/o pS rate, full employment (i.e, 1% ue rate only) would re-

quire an eg rate of 11%-12oh. At 0.9% rate of pg, full employ-

ment would be achieved with 7To-8o/o eg rate only.

f:r

Cybornetlc Ano lysis of Indian Societal Systerti

33%

31

101

25

t5

|21I

Ilt9Fzt7trJ:6rsltsuJ

3rr2tt!E7tuc q

3

I

6,5% > UE > 5'r.5% < Ec < 7.5 %

I\- --+--z

OlZ3tr56789l0 11 13 13 14

."PERCENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ----->Relationship between Unemployment and Economic Growth

Corresponding to Population Growth Rate of 2'3o/o'

Diagram Number Seventeen

t02 ' .-' '. \

Some Co're proiblems and Limits of their Solution

' Administrative Efiecliveness : Low valucs of ae charac-terize the 'soft' states, lts determinants are ed and gs. At thecurrent level of system stability (i.e., gs:0.52 in 1976), a fully

. literate citizenry would increase the level of ae upto 0.681. Such'-i-iilljher ievel of ae would then

'n.r"uu. ri" .n rates by 1o/o to

..,,r 2o/o within a relatively short term period. Th! resuttant casca_' ding effects on other system variables would increase the viabi_lity ol the total system.

Economic Growth: System determinants of economic-' growth rate are the investibre resources, administrative effec-tiveness and the random exogenous Jactors like weathei, new' technology and the inflow of resources. Investible resources. depend on internar and exterrrar peace. Administrative effec-tiveness depends on education and political stability. Adminis_trative effectiveness can be increased to a limited extent only by

-- the imagination and poriticar wiil of the goveinment. rt cannothowever be sustained at high revers in th-e absence of the cor-. respondingly high levels of literacy and communication medlause by the population. Reduction ol pmp along the exogenous. dimension depends on the uncertain responses of other govern_.. ments. lt can however temporaiily be reduced by linkages andrelations with other societal systems. Given a reduced pmplevel o{ 0.37 only and a fully literate citizenry, eg rates u pto 7o/oare achievable in the absence of random Uisturoances. With thesame pmp level and the.cu.rrent level of ae (including the impactof emergency measures), the Indian system can achieve eg ratesupto 4.bo/o only in real terms. Higher growtn rates are un-achievable except under the conditions ot-agood monsoons andother unforseen random factors.

public Unrest: public unrest is determineO by theeconomic insecu ritiescreasin g,nu,' o,on"."n,",lA;f il:t"r:il:''fl Jflfl ",:"il,:, jl;emotionally important national events may also contribute to it,Both pr and ue depend upon eg and pg, For a given level of eg,the reduction in pu then can come only through reduced prbrought about by the lower pg rates. ReJuction in pu broughtabout by the reduction. in..pg rate i. a"pi.t.A in .the diagramnumber eighteen, This diagram shows ttte,behaviour of pu in a

iybernetic Analysis oJ Indian Societul Syueni i0J

societal system coriesponding to vaiiations in.eg rates only. Thetwo pg rates specified are 2.3o/o and 0.9o/o respectively. Thedifference in pu in two cases varies from 5o/o to 0.9o/o dependingupon the magnitude of eg rate. This reduction comes aboutonly through the reduction in pr, Levels of ue are unresponsiveto changes in pg rale in the short run. Public unrest corres-ponding to 3o/o eg rate declines from 0.5 to 0.41 when the pgrate goes down to 0,9o/o from 2.3o/o, Such a reduction has impor-tant consequences lor system stability,

PU with PG = 2.3 %

Fl,J wlth PG : 0.9 %

t

o 2 4 6 8 r0t2 14

PERCENT ECONOMIC GPOWTH -_+

Relotionship bctwcen Economic Growth ond public Unrcstot Given Lcvcls of Populotion Growth

Diagram Number Eighteen

o.e

o.rf

| 06'1

I

I

FttE 0.45ztcJ

S osG

0.r5

101 Some Core problems and Limits of their Solutioit,:. , :.!'..:.

ETHNIC TENSION r Each societal system is chafacterizedbyla base value of ethnic tension that depends on the ideologi-rcal cleavages of race, caste, community, language, poiitics,region, religiori and historical factors. This value fluctuates inaccordance with the fluctuations in pu Problems ol inflationand unemployment accentuate the internal cleavages within a

social order, Reduction of el in the short run would hencealso depend on the reduction of pg for the given levels of eg.In the long run, both pu and eJ would be affected by thc impactof !-Q!v F9 lateq oq urem plo.y_me.nt. Ethnic- _tqnsions wouldhowever also be affected by the changes produced in religion(or ideology) by education. To the extent, the process of ed(including mass communication) succe_eds in promotingnational integration, the resultant reduction oJ sectarian attitudesand beliefs would reduce the amount of internal divisivenesswithin a social order. Karl Deutsch has traced the verv emer-gence ol nationalism to social communication.

The foregoing individual approach to system problemsrevcals the limits to their solutions that can be achieved underthe present conditions. The implementation of any solutionrequirement i.e., the regulation of a vgriable however requires thecorjoint regulation of a number 'bf interacting variables, Theregulation of any of. the variables in this Iist would in turnrequire the conjoint regulation of another set oJ variables andso on. Qne gets involved in the inter-locking pattern of systemdynamics from whatever direction one tries to regulate the systembehaviour. This dictates the need for a comprehensive strategyfor system development instead oJ an individual piecemeal

approach to societal probiems.

Ansther interesting aspect that emerges lrom the analysisof each of the foregoing six probiems, is the requirementpg reduction or ed increase or ae improvement. Both pg reduc-'tion and ae improvement however directly depend on ed increase.Hence ed again emerges as the lever ol overall system changeand deevlopment,

,9

Transformation of the Indian

Societal System

The blocking factors of the Indian system were listed

earlier. The channeling of planning effort for the transfoima-

tion of Indian society also revolves around the two basal levers

of system change i.e., investible resources and education' lt

may however be pointed out that for poor societies like India ft

itself is a major limitation. Moreover, since the filter between

ir and eg is administrative effectiveness (ae)' education as a

change lever comes into the picture again' Administrative

eftectiveness is directly dependent on cd besides GS' The low

values of ed lead to incompetence, inefticiency, neglectand

mismanagement in administration leading to poor utilization and

wastage of the scarce productive resources' Furthermore, the

level of lr itseli cannot be raised beyond a certain limit owing to

inherent resource constraints ol the poorer societies' This

leaves only education as the dominant lever of planned societal

transformation. Education in the context 9f societal develop-

ment implies the literacy of even its poorest citizens' lt implies

their educative use of the communication media like news'

papers, radio and television for their meaningful role in national

ieconstruction. lt means the education of millions of small

peasants, fishermen, artisans and wokers for higher productivity

and skills upgradation. lt means intensive research and deve-

lopment efiorts for the solution of problems impeding national

economy in its diverse productive fields. lt means the educa'

tion of citizens for health care and family planning' In short'

it means the awareness and undeistanding by every citizen of

the nation's major problems and his role in their resolution for

hiS own benefit.

106 iransjormation of tite Indian iocietal Syvein

Full literacy of the citizenry by itself would markedly affectthe behaviour of Indian societal system. Disregarding the in-evitable and concomitant im pact of f ull literacy on the reduc-tion of population growth rate, the consequences of the spreadol education on a society wide plane would be as follows:

(i) Administiative effectiveness (ae) would improve by0.18 tr or 18o/".

(ii) Economic growth (eg) would increase by 1o/"'to 2o/"depending upon the original placement of eg in itsviability segment. lf the economic growth originallywould have been less than 1o/o, it would increase byan additional 1o/0. lf it were originally 2o/o or more,the increase would be about 2o/o.

(iii) Depending u'pon the increment in e* ue would bereduced by 1o/o to So/o.

(iv) Similarly pr would be reduced by 2o/, to 4'/".(v) Public uniest (pa) wouid go down by 1.So/" to Oo7.

(vi) Ethnic tension (er) would decrease by 1'/, to Zo/r.

(vii) The resultant inc rease in system viability would betrom 1o/o to 2.5o/o,

In very difficult situations like military perils and acutedroughts, these improvements may make all the diffeience bet-ween national survival and collapse.

lmpact of ed, would however also powerfully aftect pg. Inno societal system of the world, full literacy of the citizenry andhigh population growth rate are found to co_exist together*.Education here implies a change of attitudes and beliels interms of a growing scientific world view and it produces an in-evitable impact on the unrestrained population growth. Reduc-tion of pg in turn leads to reduction ol pr, ue (after 15_1g years),pu and et and thence to higher GS in a chain reaction. Theinitial chain reaction grows stronger by its continual cyclingupon itself in a spirar pattern. lf in the non-too-distant future,

* Strong traditions of rellgion are however apt to act as. lmpediments !oloyy pg rato.

Analysis of Indian Societal System

Indian society is able to achieve the full literacy of its citizens

and consequently a reduced pg rate oI 0 '9o/o' the resultant im-pact would lead to the system's translormation. The Indian

societal system would then be able to meet the piessures lrom

oth6r societies and the acute drought situations effectively. lt

would be able to overcome the malaise of internal disorders

and divisiveness in a lasting manner' Such a state of societaldevelopment is representable in the {orm of a performance panel

table as follows. The panei diagram number nineteen is alsogiven along side,

Inspectlon of this performance panel reveals the following

salient aspect ol the society's transformed state :

(i) The course of the system has stabilized at a high level

of viability i.e, from // and /5 cells to hS cell.

(ii) Serious drought situations have become manageable'' i,"., they no longer destabilize the system This is

brought out by the system's behaviour in years t+3and t*4.

(iii) Future growth proceeds along the reduction of

politico-m ilitary pressure. With pmp:Q.$7' the couise

of the system moves up to the levels given under the

years t-l-6 and t |7, System viability moves way up

in the hS cell.

(iv) High level of leadership no longer matt€rs in ihe con-

text of political stability in the society' With further

reductions in pg rate and pmp level, the viability of

the system would rise still further'

A comparison o{ this performance panel with the perfor-

mance panel number four for the years 1975-80, brings out the

magnitude of the system's transformation achieved here. Per-

formdnce Panel four of chapter five represents an optimistic

picture of the societal situation during 1976-80 period under the

prevailing set ol circumstances. In a lurther contrast, the level

ol pmp in the transformed system state is higher in the first six

year$

107

Transformation of the Indtan Societal System

q E siideq+o o ca l.) (fJ o'o ci

rl) \O\O-OE E alslslEbs 3 33 5Q A <OClC{cicio o oo a

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B H ;*a,sH$ S E€ 3o o (fjdo'oo' o oo o

E s $$$s=: E 35 3

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Cybernetic Anaiysis of Indian Societal System 109

q)a)

za)I4z

bo

*t

aIE

It'2

G

.,

;lt.l-

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1.,

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lt0 Transformatlon of Indian Societal System

A compaiative repiesentation of the status of system viabi_fity during the years 19?9, 1976, t and t*7 is ouflined in thediagram number twenty. The diagram depicts changes in theviability volume of the system along an octagon. The nodes ofthe octaggn repiesent the viability volume (tr) of the systemvariables measured along a scale of zero to one. The octagonformed by connecting the adjacent nodes together, then sefvesto depict the actual viability volume realised in a particular year.The potential (maximum) viability volume of the system is onthe othei hand given by the outermost octagonall ofwhosenodes have the (l) value of one. The process of societal deve_lopment or regress may then be visualized in terms ol the ex_ ,panding or contracting volumes of the viability octagon.

The process of developmental transformation picturedherewould be applicable to any illiterate and ill_develonedsociety with appropriate contextuar modifications. system witha high lavel of leadership (ldf) would however be in a betterposition to implement this strategy of societal transformation ina sustained manner.

Viability Volumes ol Indian SocietyDiagram Number Twenty

V.ir; \*'* iiIt /

\\!\i'

:\

-\.\\ \.\

l,!''.)tf\\I 15'

t

toFundaments of a Steering System for

Indian Society'

, Basic orientation of steering a societal system is towardsmaximising its tolal viability with special .. reference to ilsnon-viable variables. Such an orientation is conceptually diffe-rent fro rn- the-exclusive..csncern with economic growth, inflation,rrand uriqm ployment of the econo.m.i.i ptan.nin.g.. The process ofsteering. here invo-lyes 'the integration of the -administrative,

econom ic,, edu-cational, m i I itary, pol itical and social policie.s.{pdmeasures. This integration is designed to augment the viabilityof all the system variab-les concomitantly, lt thereby serves toefiectively strengthen the system .as-'a' whole. Viability of thesystem (Z;and GS) closely reflects the nature and the statugof political stability in a society. Political stability or regulatorviability constitutes the cruc[al conclifibn foi- achi6ving systemdevelopment goals including the economic ones.

Information and Regulation :

Steering of a system hence involves a viable operation ofits regulator. Regulatorv process however depends on inform-ation, Infoimation is needed about variables needing regulation,endogenous and exogenous variables affecting them, changesoccurring in them as a result of control measures and the gapsbetween their current and desired states. The regulatoryprocess and its dependence on information may be depictedas below :

The diagfam dcpicts two negative cycles involvedin the process of control. Pioblem variables. are affected byendogenous and random €xogenous factors. Their statug is

l12 Fundaments of a Steering System for Indian Society

enous Vtrables an

ll(-t

Rarults ol Acrion EvElsetieo

Two riv€y tn{otmatioD Ftog,

,t't'"'"';"''o'"'\l(-)

R€gul6torv ? todest and Inlornslion

<-<*-+}{>

OEgtam ilqlnltir fw'fitf Ooc

evaluated leading to reievant decisions and actions. Results ofaction then affect the problem variables along with the impact-ing endogenous and exogenous factors. The cycles start againwith the status evaluation ol problem variables. Both thecycles are here seeking to stabilize the problem lvariables at adesired high level of regulatedness But each phase rof _theregulatory cycle requires timely and correct information. qEvalu-ation in{ormation, decision inlormation, action information andresults inlormation are needed in a continuous manner from aninJormation base. . This information base monitors, collects,processes and stores informatign for use .in the regulatoryprocesses. Incorrect, irrelevant, inadequate and delayed inform-ation would render the control'proceSs ineffective, i'. .,,*! _,. j

IIIFORMATIONEASE

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Socletal System 113

Every self-governing system possesses an infoamation dndcontrol system that holds it together. lt directs and coordinatega system's goal seeking activities in response to change in itsenvironment. Such an inlormation and control system is seen

to be chaiacterized by a universal logic of its invariant functions

irrespective of th€ nature of a self-governing system. Biologicalorganisms, com plex-automatic artifacts, human organizations and

societies govern themselves through an identical set of basic in-formation and control funtions. Structural counterparts of these

fUnctions may differ across the class and types of autonomous

system. But the functional requirements themselves remain

invariant.

These iequirements are :

(i) the sensing and monitoring ol external and internal

environment of the sYstem.

(ii) the reception, processing and stoiage of information.

(iii) the retrieval of information from memory foi comparison

with the incoming information.

(iv) decision-making according to inbuilt and learned

logical criteria.

(v) transmission of control instiuctions i'e.' the directive

inlorm atio n and

(vi) the implementation of action.

The result of action as well as other changes in the en-

vironment aie resensed and the control cycle continues inces-

santly. In the process, the memory gets continually loaded with

information (experience and learning) and comes to store an

image (engram) of the environment.

ln accordance with the above basic {unctional requiie'

ments, every information and control system possesses a set of

functional blocks designated as sensors, information processihg

element, storage function, logico-decision element, command

f unction, efiectors and memory.l.* -Memory stores the plans,

goals, experience and an engram of the environment, The

I 14 Funilaments of a Steering System for Inilian Society

functional blocks and their linkages together deflne the invariantanalog of an information and control gystem ao below :

Dlagram Number Twenty TwoConcrete structural organs coiresponding to the above

universal control function blocks may difier fiom system tosystem. In a biological system like a human ofganism, senseorgans like ear, eye, nose and skin serve as the sensors. Neuralchannels cafry information bearing signals to brain where theyare pfocessed stoied and compared, Memoiy, comparatorand logico-decision elements correspond to differont functionalareas of the human biain. Command function consist in thetfansmisslon of decieion information through neural channels tothe effectgr oigang like hands and legs, Experience in the lorm

€NVIRONMENT

SY STE M EOUN D ANY

^/

CybernEric Anslog ol an

Informstion P.lh -

Infor matlon and Control Syst.m

-+-q-

Memolv StoringPl8ns, Goals, and

E rg ram ofEnvironme nt

SensorsMonitorngEnvirOnmentalChangesLo0ico-decision

C omparato r

Fu nctio n

InformationStoragsFunction

Cybernetlc Analysis of Indian Societal System llsof stofed information accounts foi an individual's world viewand image (i.o,, a model) of the environment in his memory.

Information and contiol system of a self-goveining systemoperates incessantly to achieve its goals, to protect it from dis-turbances and to assure its survival, lt functions through a timelyintegration of information, decisions and action regarding theproblems confronting the system. lt steers a self-regulatingeystem in a variable environment towards adaptation,

Information and Gontrol Syslem for a Society :

Society as a self-governing system also steers itselfthrough its information and control system. Information andcontrol system of a society is usually a historical outgrowth ofits state apparatus and governing oigans. lt often suffers froma number of logical incon sistenc ies, delays, inadequaciesand structural defects, Cybernetic analysis of societal systemsprovides a consistent basis for designing the information andconirol syslem of a society in a logically coherent manner,Design of each of its functional blocks from sensors to efiectorsis here guided by the inputs it has to accept, the opefations ithas to perfofm and the outputs it has to produce. The content ofeach block is based on the basic multicycle pattern of a societalsy stem,

A vely brief discussion of an infofmation and control'system design {or a society is given as follows:

SENSORS of a societal system would monitor andreceive data iteffls and information signals pertaining toendogenous and random exogenous variables, Thehierarchic organization of data collection here would be fromvillages to districts to provincial regions,to province for eachprovince of a nation. Endogenous variables woulq be monitorein terms of an area focus Exogenous variables would be monitored for each impacting society (pmp, trade relations, economicexclranges. political and scientific cooperation etc.,) and eachcategory, weathci (floods and droughts), natural resources and

116 Funilaments of a Steering System lor Indian Society

new technologies etc.). This pattefn may be synoptically out-lined as below l

Data ltems

Categories of lnformation

Endogenous Variables Exogenous Vaiiables

National R€gionsN4tu

aI

Resources

es

W

a

th

a

t

i

o

NewTe

hnoI

os

I

S-tates Regions

D istricts

Cities Villages

A sefies of multiplexed digital computers would scan,

monitor and collect a continuous series of relevant data on a

periodic basis which would be transmitted to a central processor

foi analysis and storage, Each variable wouid be subdivided

into a numbei of attiibutes and measures depending upon the'

requirements of planning at different hieraichic levels' Adminis-

trative effectiveness (ae) for example would be divisible into the

following generalized information categories :

population law energY andcontrol and powerprogram- order proiectsmes

agriculturalprogrammes

industrialad m inis-tratio nandproiects

delence p ublic tax andefiort adminis' revenue

tration collec-tion

researc handdevelop-mont

literacyp ro gram-mes

internalsecurity

Cybernetic Anaiysis of intitan Societal Systunl

Each of these categories would be divisible into a number

of sub-categories depending upon the nature of regulatory

requirements and changing key results areas at different levels'

The contents of these segments would be collected, updated

and appraised in terms of the impact of GS and ed on them and

their bearing on the eg rate' All the variables would be dis-

aggregated in a similar manner. The signi{icance of any

particular information category may be determined on the basis

of the Jollowing lormula :

ns'lsi : -n ) ni loo' ni

j:l

where, /sj is the information significance of the item/cat€gory

l; n is the number of items/categories associated with a variable

and pl is the lrequency of use of the. itemi category,l in decision

making at a given level of regulatory hierarchy'

INFORMATION PROCESSING and STORAGE function

blocks would process the incoming data items and information

and organize them in a series of interlinked information modules'

an information module would' consist of a salient variable' its

precedent variables and its output variables' Each variable

iould be disaggregated into its own salient categories as dis'

.*'.oearlier.Thisfunctionalb|ockinthepresentcontext.would hence consist of a set ol seven information modules

headed by the seven salient variables i'e' GS' eg' pmp' et' pg'

ir and ed. The modules would be interlinked through the

variables that occur In more than one rnodule' The schematic

arrangements of the societal information modules and their

.rtrJt tinkug"s is depicted in the diagram number twenty three'

Each module would be composed of historical' summary

and current information files. Each file would be oriented

around a constituent variable' A file structure may be outlined

as below I

11?

€,6)L5F

(D

't''i(D

E4z

boG'

It{ Fundaments oj a Steering System 7or indian Society

I0tlttl

C'

oulo

6

oe'6

J

eF

oogpo:E

coIcoc

Cybernetic Anaiysis oi ndian Societai Syueni 119

AttributesCate-gory

Attribute 1, Attribute m

Category 1 Measure 1,1 --------Measure l,m

Category n Measure h, 1 -*------Measuie n'm

It may superflcially be exemplified with respect to pu vari-

able as below :

File Stfucture of Public Unrest Variable

Attributes (1) (2) (3)

. Locale Forms Periodand

D ura-

CategorY tion

PopulationSegment I

9

3

(4) (5)

lnten- Trendsity

(6)

Admi'nistrat-

ive Res-ponse

Historical, summary and cuirent information files would

together {ofm the basis of a master file' Master tl: :l:,t9 *.'"'l

otier files would be stored and periodically updated in the

system's information storage function block' Selective contents

oi the master file ol all iniormation modules become a part of

120 Funriaments of a Steering Systm jor hdian iocietythe system's memory. They undeilie a system,s learning, ex_perience and engram of the environment.

COMPARATOR FUNCTION here would be concernedwith the preparation of a performance paner Jor the currentperiods and year onthe basis of currenfly processed inioimation,The updated panel status so prepared would ba compared withthe panel (s) that formed the basis of prognoses and predictiveinJerence regarding the system's present and future behaviour.This functional block is essentially concerned with carrying outthe assessments of the system's recent experiences and peifor_mance at periodic frequency. Existing levels of goal attainmentale compared with those planned fof the same periods. Thisblock interacts with the system's memory, information process_ing and storage functions and serves as input to the logico_decision element

MEMORY stores the multicycle model of the society,planned societal goals under varying conditions, perfofmancepanels corresponding to malor contingencies and an Inventoryof the system's capabilities, limitation unA ,".pon."r. lt is arepository of the system's experiences of its past tand presensuccesses and failures.

- Memory grows.upon itself. lt is the terminal point of in_formalion entering a system through its sensors. Memoryselects.and fetains thbt part of information which is rerated tothe system's goals, activities and previou" "*i"-n"n.".. Goalshere are the maintenance and growth oI societal stability andviability. Selection and retention of information by memoryrepresents a system's learning. Accretion of information andhigher information levels form ihe nuri, oi.i*g". in u .y.t"r,.operational goals, activities and organization

"structure. Sucha change pfocess represents a system,s adaptation based onits learning, Memory, rearning and adaptation are hence seen tobe the logically inter-related aspects of this control function

ll:..1: Together, they underline a society,s .upu.,,, tor. unintelligent management of its affairs. fntef tigence nere signifiesthe system's ability to o.perate viably under a wide variety

Cybernetic Analysis of indian Societai Systen

of conditions. lt signifies the appiopriate selection of control

responses based on the best availability and use of information

lor decision and action.LOGICO-DECISION ELEMENT is concerned with the

cause-based and error-based regulatory responses' Causal

basis of regulation is provided by the multi-cycle model of

system dynamics in the control system's memory. Methodology

ol societal planning based on foresight (i'e., performance panels)

governs the system's cause based regulatory responses. Support

for the error-based regulation is provided by the comparator

function. This block hence utilizes both the modes of regulat-

ion in its assessment ol problems, allocation of resources and

initiation of time bound programmes concerning diverse sectors

of societal operations, lt is also concerned with improving and

devising various administrative and managerial procedures forthe important organs of the state. lt prepaies scenarios andpolicy analyses through the evaluation of specific indicators and

consequences. lt determines in an overall manner the general

response pattern of a societal system.

COMMAND FUNCTION is concerned with the hierarchic

transmission and amplification of directive information emitted by

the logico-decision element. lts orbit covers the entire pattern

of administrative hierarchy from cential government to village

level administration downwards. Delays and noise in the hierar-

chic information transmission and amplification here lead to

serious errors in the execution of policies and decisions at thesuccessive levels ol administration.. Apex level organization of the command function has to '.,:'

conform here to a pattern of the reticular formation of nerves

and 'the redundancy of potential comrnanp'. It signifies in thepresent context a flexible and shifting focus ol dominance

within a government's sub-systems Dominance of subsystem

would depend upon the changing nature of external

developments and the critical information available during

a given period, The commanding position of sub-system

during a given period depends upon the relatively importantrole it may have to play in the government's perform-

ance under a given s€t ol conditions.. Military, agriculfurg,

t)l

122 Funilaments ojo Struirg Syurnjo, indian Societ,

indusky, tiade and public administiation sub_systems may vari-ously assume the focus of command in a system,s performanceduring different periods. Their dominance depends upon theenvironmental and internal changes. Military would dominateunder conditions of war; agriculture would dominate underconditions of food shoitage, industry would donoinate under therequirements of import reduction and so on. More than onesub-system may acquire dominance during specific andcontingent periods.

The concept of the redundancy of, potential command isrelated to the insight provided by Warren McCulloch's work onnerve nets. In the reticular lormation of nerves, any particularganglion of nerve cells or a local plexus of the net work mayachieve command subject to its acquisition and processing ofcritical informaton during a given moment.This leature of a nerve,net where any cell giouping can potentially assume command wastermed by McCulloch as ,th€ redundancy of potential command,.Command function's design on its basis implies a regutatory sys-tem's recognition of the need to change the foci of its internalend€avours from time to time. The multiplicity of the foci ofdominance or command centres is essentiai for a system,sadaptation to repid changes in its environment.

EFFECTORS aie the various state ofgans that actuallycarry out the commands of a system's peak level control i.e., thehighest level of the governmental authority. Foi a society as awhole, they afe arranged in a hierarchic ofder from central go-vernment organizations and personnel to village level organsand personnel. .lt is what all of them do and accomplish aseffectors that constitutes a society's actual response to its ex.teinal and int€rnal problems. ln centralized communist socie_ties, every citizen whether a worker, farmer, teacher, doctor oran engineer berongs to a state organ, His occupationar statusis defined with reference to one or more of the government or_ganization'. The concept of effectors therefore extends toevery citizen direcfly in a comm unist society, In western soci-ti€s, the role of citizens as eff€ctors is inteipretable as the cons-tituents of a decentralized and distributed control system,

Cybernetic Analysis oj indian Sopienl Sysiem ltlThe concept of citizens as efiectors provides another in-

sight into the pivotal role ol education as the instiument ofsocietal transformation. Education involves a growing volumeof information and communication process. They go to affectthe attitudes and behaviours of the citizens i.e., their role as

system effectors.

System Design at Micro Levels :

The pattern of an information and contiol system outlinedabove is recursive, lt is applicable to micro-level parts of a societyi.e., specific organizations. and institutions in an analogousmanner. An army, a government ministfy, an industry, aneducational institution, a research and development organiza-tion, an urban government and a village level administrationcan all be interpreted in terms of the information control systemblock diagram. Sensors to effector classificatian paradigm

would be applicable to them at their respective levels of func-tional structuie, This pattern and logic of recursion makespossible a redesigning of social order. Design process of anirtformation and control system can hence range from a groupof villages, towns and regions to a total society system. It cinrange across specific industiial, educational and administrativeorganizations to an industry as a whole, to educational systemof a pfovince and to total administiative machinery of an area.System design effort has to embrace both the micro and themacro levels ol ol a societal system for its self-sustainingdevelopment.

Concomitant processes of system design at micro andmacfo levels would require an extensive support system of anetwork of digital computere. They would serve to link up awhole society in a fast cifculatory system of communication andcontrol. Such a large and fast system of communicationwould result in a multiple increase in the volume 6nd velocity ofinformation circulation within a societv.

124 Fundaments oJ a steering Syuem for Indian Sociery

Information, Education and Societal Steering :

Information is the basis of regulation and ofganization indynamic systems. lts higher and lower volumes of cifculationwithin a society would directly affect its capacity fof selfsteering.Infofmation is the foundation of intelligence (i.e., responseselection), Iearning and resilience in self-regulating systems.Steering of a society is therefore ciucially dependent on itsinlormation and control system. Greater the circulation of in_{ormation within and between the constituent parts of a societyas a whole, the higher its resultant capacity for self_steering.

lmportance of information fof the steering of societalsystems is highly consistent with the role of education in theirtrans{ormation and development. Full literacy, intensive use ofcommunication media and vast sustained programmes of teach-ing, training, skills upgiadation and learning for millions ofhuman beings at all levels of a national population come underthe ambit ef education. They together generate a tremendousmovement of Communicative stimuli affecting miilions of socialbeings. Sustained impact of such a massive and continuous com-munication exposure changes their attitudes, thoughts, betief andaction. T his irreversible change leads to large and radlcal impro-vements in the effectof function role of the citizens, lmprovementof effector function improves a system's overall control responsei.e., its better performance. Hence Education and lnformationand Development and Steering in a societal system are seen tobe f undamentally related.

Steering of a society means to guide and direct its coursein an intelligent manner. The concept of intelligence involves aconcept ol selection among the alternatives (Ashby 1956). Anintelligent decision and action is a more correcl decision andaction under the circumstances. The basis of a selection iscurrently available information, learning and experience (i.e.stored information) of an organism. lt follows that the intelli_gence (selection ability) of an oiganism would depend upon itsrate of acquiring, processing using and storing infoimation.Among two similar (or dissimilar) organism, the one whose level

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System '

ol information acquisition, use and storage isfearning rate) would be the more intelligent.

i.e., ability to select a better response wouldgreater. The same logic is applicable toalso.

125

higher (i.e,, higherIts response abilitycorrespondingly be

societal systemg

Societies with information and control systems of laigerand faster information handling capacity at their micio levels

would be able to steer themselves more effectively.

They would be bettet able to know morc about their prohlems

soonet'. They would be able to make high frequency assess-

ments o{ their experience and performance. Their control res-

ponses would as a consequence be more intelligent and timely.

Their laiger sensing, processing, storage and memory capacity

for intormation would enable them to learn more from theifexperience at a faster rate. Learning fiom experience and fas-ter capacity for more intelligent responses would enable a socie-

tal system to steer itself through unstable environments and

complete its recovery from recent failures.

The Rationale and Efficiency of System Design:

The theoretical rationale o{ the in{ormation and controlsystem design here is provided by the multicycle dynamic pattern

of societal systems. System dynamics delimit and structuredesign process in a definitive manner, The nature and scope

o{ sensors i.e , the events to be sensed by them, are deflned by

the system cycles. The categorization oi information and attri-

butes of events are defined and delimited by salient variables

and their information modules. Similarly, the contents and tasks

of other design blocks are also governed by the principles and

themes of the multi-cycle structure. This overall rationale of

the design process leads to its efficiency and optimal utilization

of system capacity as shown by the Conant's laws of infoima-

tion which govern systems (Conant, '1976)' Total inlormation

flow across a complex system from its environm€nts is environ-

ment is representable as following :

126 Fundauents of a stcering System for Inaian Society

tT:fB+lc+to+ tt

where, (i) ll is the total information flow,

(li) lB is the infoimation blocked within the system asirrelevant and useless,

(iii) lC is the infoimation used in the internal coordina-tion within and between the sub-systems,

(iv) lO is the information emitted by system in its outputsand

(v) N is the noise generated within the system unielatedto the inputs and outputs.

The law shows {hat the total amount of information flowover a period being flnite, blockage, cooidination, output andnoise compete with one another in the system,s information pro-cessing activity. If there is a gieat dear of ifierevant informationto be blocked i.e,, rejected and a lot of noise is generated ow_ing to inteinal confusion, then to that extent, resser informationprocessing effort can be devoted to coordination and output,the two most important aspects of a system,s survival. Thedesign rationale heie makes for the avoidance of brockage andnoise by pre-specifying the tasks and activities of sensors andother functional blocks. Output requiiements are also restrictedin terms of the limited number of system variables. These re_ductions leave the most of the information processing capacityto be utilized for coordination (lC) only. Greater use of system,sinformational capacity for internar coordination reads to its im-proved management and goal attainment processes. System,sdevelopment is thereby facilitated.

Information and control system for a society here aims atcreating a global leafning capacity for self_examination and im-piovement by a society, Such a global learning and self-im-provoment process is characterized by discontinuous leaps andlarge irregular qualitative changes. rt is distinct from a continu-gus linear proc€s$ characterized by small and regular incie,

Cybernetic Analysis of Indian Societal System 127

ments, The types of discontinuities involved heie are termed

'catastfophes' by the topologists (R, Thom, 1975). They suggostthat improvement of system performance requires leaps and

large changes in a nonrandom and puiposive mannei This isbrought out by the concept ol conjoint regulation ol a set of vari-ables as developed in this work' Exact course and piecise na-

ture of the improvements are not the focal issues here. Whatcounts is the direction and magnitude of overall self-impfove-

ment (Z and GS) and global nature of the system's self-leain;ng

and self-examination ca,paciiy. They can come about only

through large changes and 'leaps' implemented in a sustained

man ner.

tlConclusion

Present work outlines the beginnings of an intellectual

technology for the development of total society systems. lt isbased on a science of society whose fundamentals were outlined

in the fiist two chapters. Both the science and {he technology

sought to be developed here, derive lrom Cybernetics-the

science ol communication and control.

The concepts and propositions of the science of society and

the social technologylof its development as enunciated hefe, con-

form lo the dictums of the scientific method. They are charac-

terized by the following attributes of a valid scientific theoiy:

(i) Results of analysis are falsi-fiable by empirical obser-vations.

(ii) They are so arranged as to stimulate their own self-correction especially with the better availability of rele-

vant categories of data and information.

(iii) Concepts and propositions are logically related to one

another: there are no ad-hoc theoretical and con-

ceptual assumPtions.

(iv) They are measurable.

(v) They are economical in the number ol variables used.

(vi) They display consistency of reasoning within the sym-

bol system employed.

(vii) They afe free lrom cultural subjectivism.

Cybernetic Analysis of Iniltan Societal System 129

(viii) They opefationalize the qualitative concepts like politi-cal instability; societal viability, expectations of sociiand public unrest.

(ix) They permit inter-s ubjective verification across thesocietal systems in space and time,

(x) Theoretical analysis leads to applicable results foi thedevelopment and management of societal systems.

Multicyle theory of the societal systems outlined in thiswork, realizes the following theoretical possibilities;

(1) lt is descriptive i.e., describes a national society's dy-

namic structure,

(2) lt is diagnostic, i.e. assesses a society's problems andcrisis situations.

(3) lt is predictive, i.e. piovides foresight concerning a

system's behaviour.

(4) f t is ameliorative, i.e. identifies the solution measufes tocrises in a daductive manner.

(5) lt is normative, i,e. conceptualizes an ideal system state

in terms ot the viability reference value of the systemand its variables.

It may again be reemphasized in. conclusion that {he pie-sent work constitutes only a modest beginning toward under-stand in g societies better,

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{€5

POST-SCRIPT

The computations reported in this volume were made inrAugust, 1975. lt is now possible to compare the computed'{lgures for economic growth and price rise for the 1976 and1977 periods with their ofticially repoited figures for the .same

periods. The ofticially repoited figures, however, often vary,from one source to another. The reported figures fof theeconomic growth during 1976-77 and lg77'78 aie putat2o/oand 4.5o/o respectively. The figures for price rise during 1976

and 1977 are approximately estimated at 109/. and 60/o respect-ively, The annual average for economic growth over the two.yeai period hence comes out .to be 3.25 percent. This is ingood agreement with the average of the computed figures ofeconomic growth at 3 percent approximately for 1976 and.1977. Similarly, the average over a two year period for pricerise comes out to be 8 percent which again is in good agree-

,ment with the average of the computed figures of price rise tor1976 and 1977 a|7.1 percent,

The economic sltuation in 1977-78 was, howevef, maikedby the random impact of a good monsoon on agrlcultufalproduction. The growth in industfial production and invest-ment was quite poor. The piesent Government is likely toface a difticult politico-economic situation in 1979-80 and1980-81 periods if a serious diought situation materialises inaccordance with a seven year cyclical pattern of its iecui-rence. lf this difficult economic situation is further aggra-vated by external military pressure and subversion, theslluation may become very difficult on account of extens-ive internal uniest. The possibility of a military governmentunder such extreme conditions cannot entirely be ruled out.This contlngency becomes distinctly probable in view of theleadership vacuum created by the erosion of high /dl (f) ofMrs. Gandhi and pooi health of rl. P. Naiain. Undef times ofsevere crisis, it is the high level leadership factoi, ldf (l), that$eiyes to impart stability to unstable and deteriorating situat-

ir186

ions in weak societal systerns. This stabilising factor doesnot appear to be available to the lndiair system.at piesent.

, ,. The. most a,dyd.r$e:cojn.sequence .of the change of govern-r ment aa a resuli of March, 1977 elections has been the set-

back received by the national population control programme.This difficult probleni would tend to become more intractableand nagate.the normal gains of planned economic develop-rn.elt. The present govefnment would appear to be incapableof politically difficult decisions and actions' to deal with the

. problem of relentless population growth in an effebtive

. manner. In view of this, the lndian societal system wouldcontinue. to be beset with the grim problems of unemploy-.r.nent, illiteracy, inflalion, slums, oveicrowding,.shortages ofessential commodities and the pefsisting. of its ill_fed andever increasing population mass. Despair and the pessimism[fow as (,1)and low ldf) (I)] on the one hand and internal

,divisiveness and unrest (high values of el and pu) on theother, are hence apt to characteiize.the national scene in thefuture. A technological breakthrough, in the field of fertilitycontrol may however succeed in averting the grim prospectsand promote a better quality of life for the Indian masses.