ICT ICT 20122012

a brief history

a brief history

Prasanto K Roy

Prasanto K Roy

pkr@cybermedia.co.in

pkr@cybermedia.co.in

www.ciol.com

www.ciol.com

ICT $

163B

ICT $

163B

9.7

% o

f G

DP

9.7

% o

f G

DP

IT IT $76B Exports

$76B Exports $36B Domestic

$36B DomesticTelecom Telecom $24B Equipmt

$24B Equipmt$38B Services

$38B Services

12% CAGR over 2 yrs

IT C

ross

es

$100B

IT C

ross

es

$100B

Rev $B $ growth

Exports 76 16.5%Domestic

36 10.7%

Total 112 14.7%

IT’s

24%

Deca

de

IT’s

24%

Deca

de

47/$ 48/$

DQ

Top 2

0D

Q T

op 2

0% of total

Growth %

DQ 20 55 18.0DQ 200

83 15.7

Total 100 14.7

Slo

wdow

nSlo

wdow

n

Economic slowdown

Economic slowdown Policy paralysis:

Policy paralysis: large govt projects stalled

large govt projects stalled

Thai floods, Japan quake

Thai floods, Japan quake

Costlier $Costlier $

Gro

wth

toppers

Gro

wth

toppers

Exports: Exports:

24.4%24.4% Smart Phones:

Smart Phones: 65%65%

Unified Comm.:

Unified Comm.: 50%50%

Storage peripherals:

Storage peripherals: 35%35%

Structured Cabling:

Structured Cabling: 20%20%

Semicon Design:

Semicon Design: 18%18% Laptops:

Laptops:

16%16%

Tablets (Tablets (NANA))

Underp

erf

orm

ers

Underp

erf

orm

ers

Desktops: Desktops: 0.6%0.6% Monitors:

Monitors: 3.3%3.3% Servers: Servers:

4%4% Printers:

Printers: 4%4%

Routers: Routers:

-6%-6% Switches:

Switches: 6%6% Modems: Modems: -17%-17%

Trends

Trends

Tier 3, 4 markets open up

Tier 3, 4 markets open up

Data center growth

Data center growth Some govt projects,

Some govt projects, PSUs, SMB demand

PSUs, SMB demand Growth in managed

Growth in managed services, analytics,

services, analytics, mobility, cloud, SaaS,

mobility, cloud, SaaS, collaborationcollaboration BPO just 6.8% growth

BPO just 6.8% growth

Tele

com

’11-1

2

Tele

com

’11-1

2ki

nda fl

at

kinda fl

at

INR 296,000 cr3.6% growth

$B

Tele

com

India

:

Tele

com

India

: 5 y

ears

5 y

ears

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

what

happened?

what

happened?

NTP 2011: NTP 2011: ‘Will they, won’t they?’

‘Will they, won’t they?’

The industry froze

The industry froze No expansion

No expansion No new equipment

No new equipment No new investment

No new investment

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

what

happened?

what

happened?

2G spectrum scam:

2G spectrum scam: The ghost still

The ghost still haunts the industry

haunts the industry 122 licenses canceled

122 licenses canceled Many shut shop:

Many shut shop:S Tel, Etisalat, Swan 

S Tel, Etisalat, Swan 

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

what

happened?

what

happened?

Mobile subscriptions

Mobile subscriptions dipped: 10-15

dipped: 10-15 mn/month to 5-6

mn/month to 5-6 mn/monthmn/month 200 brands

200 brands down to 20 brands

down to 20 brands

Broadband:

Broadband:

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

Tele

com

’11-1

2:

what

happened?

what

happened? Cellular business

Cellular businesscontributed 65%

contributed 65% of services industry

of services industry revenuerevenue

908 mn SIMs

908 mn SIMs 702 mn active (HLR)

702 mn active (HLR) 610 mn subscribers

610 mn subscribers

ICT 2

011-2

020

ICT 2

011-2

020

The decade of the

The decade of the Mango ManMango Man