CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
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Peak Oil: Transport in Transition Bryn Davidson Bryn Davidson August 2008
Transcript of CUTA 2008: Bryn Davidson
Peak Oil:Transport in Transition
Bryn DavidsonBryn Davidson
August 2008
How I ended up talking about oil & energy...
to green building...
From mechanical engineering....
to energy...
to urban design....
to mobility planning....
..at a time when the world is talking about energy.
..at a time when the world is talking about energy...and emissions, and energy-security
..at a time when the world is talking about energy...at a time when the world is talking about energy...and emissions, and energy-security
...and looking for answers...and looking for answers
Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....
It t b l it h h di !It must be real... it has merchandise!
Oil: What’s your perspective?
What’s your perspective?
Wall St.
April July Nov.
What’s your perspective?
Economists
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What’s your perspective?
Geologists
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What’s your perspective?
200010000000 3000 4000
Cultural Anthropologists
Peak oil is slowly entering mainstream awareness....
"The time when we could count on cheap oil and even cheaper natural gas is clearly ending"
D O'R ill CEO Ch T 2005Dave O'Reilly, CEO ChevronTexaco - 2005
Oil: what’s your perspective?
“optimists”
Lynch
“pessimists”
y
Yergin (C.E.R.A)
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n p
rodu
ctio
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SimmonsCampbell (A S P O )ob
al O
il Pr
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Glo
Oil: what’s your perspective?
“optimists”“flat earth economists”
Lynch
“pessimists”
y
Yergin (C.E.R.A)
.
n p“realists”
rodu
ctio
n
SimmonsCampbell (A S P O )ob
al O
il Pr
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(A.S.P.O.)
Glo
What’s your perspective?Oil: what’s your perspective?
Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
(ASPO)
International Energy Agency
(IEA)(ASPO) (IEA)
2007 2007
'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future. Q: How to act in the face of these mixed messages?
captions - J.J.C Bruggink in ‘Four European Energy Futures’
Oil: what’s your perspective?
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Oil: what’s your perspective?
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Oil: what’s your perspective?
2008
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Oil: what’s your perspective?
The future of our cities?
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Peaking: Discovery & Production
Understanding the Game:Peaking Giant Fields
Samotlor, Russia3500k
1970 1981 2000
0
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
Understanding the Game:Peaking Giant Fields
Slaughter, Texas
140k
1940 1974 2000
0
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
Understanding the Game:Peaking Giant Fields
1800k
Romashkino, Russia
01949 1973 1997
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
Understanding the Game:Peaking Giant Fields
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
1600k
01969 1987 1997
* production curves excerpted from a presentation by Matt Simmons
Peaking: Discovery & ProductionPeaking: Discovery & Production
Time Lag ~40 Years
ProductionDiscovery
Oil iOil is easy to get, and of good quality.
Oil is increasingly hard to get, and of poorer quality.
Time
Peaking: Discovery & ProductionPeaking: Discovery & Production
today today today
“Of the 65 largest oil producing countries in the world 54 have passed their peak of production”
Kjell Aleklett, 2005
Peaking: Global Discovery & ProductionPeaking: Discovery & Production
DiscoveryDiscovery
Production
Why would production peak?
Wh t b tWhat about:
• New Discoveries & Technology
• ‘Vast’ Middle East Reserves• Vast Middle East Reserves
• ‘Vast’ Resources: Markets & Substitutes
U.S. Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology‘The Conventional Wisdom’New Technology and Discoveries
10000 kb/d
5000 kb/d
US Lower 48
20081930 1970 2010 2050
0 kb/d
U.S. Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology‘The Conventional Wisdom’New Technology and Discoveries
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Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’
AK
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20081930 1970 2010 2050
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U.S. Oil: Big Discoveries & Technology‘The Conventional Wisdom’New Technology and Discoveries
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Big, New Discoveries &
New ‘Technology’
l hif h...only shift the curveAK
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Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump
‘The Conventional Wisdom’The Conventional WisdomThe Endless Middle East
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump‘The Conventional Wisdom’The Endless Middle East
Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030
Scenario 2:
Peak ~ Now to 2012
} on whose data and analysis you trust...
OPEC Reported Reserves
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump‘The Conventional Wisdom’The Endless Middle East
Scenario 1: } Depends Peak ~2030
Scenario 2:
Peak ~ Now to 2012
} on whose data and analysis you trust...
OPEC Reported Reserves
In the late 80s OPEC Rules Changed :
The More Reserves You Have > > More Pumping Allowed = More $$$
>> Magical New Reserves?
Peaking Scenarios & The Magical Jump‘The Conventional Wisdom’The Endless Middle East
OPEC Reported Reserves
Global Reported Reserves
Peaking Scenarios ‘The Conventional Wisdom’The Endless Middle East
If you believe this, then we b bl ’t k til
A crude generalization...
probably won’t peak until 2030...
If you believe this, then we’re
politically inflated reserves? y ,
probably peaking now...
Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
But it takes 15 years toBut it takes 15 years to change the fleet...
Rules & Prices Change Overnight...
Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation‘Wedge’
Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation‘Wedge’
...changing the city takes even longer.
Energy Transition - How fast can we adapt?Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
Mitigation Wedges
..to avoid liquid fuel shortfalls, we need a 20 year head-start.
From ‘The Hirsch Report’ Robert Hirsch & Roger Bezdek for the U.S. DOE
Markets and Substitutes...Understanding the Game:Mitigation Rates (Wedges)
“... oil sands production cannot even compensate for the combined declining conventional
oil production in Canada and the North Sea.
Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent a global peak oil scenario ” *a global peak oil scenario.
* “Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply”Bengt Söderbergh, Kjell Aleklett, Fredrik Robelius
Modeling the Energy Transition:
Modeling the Energy Transition:
Fleet Efficiency - Jets & TrucksFleet Efficiency Jets & Trucks
120%
140%
005)
80%
100%
cien
cy (v
s. 2
0
Technological Efficiency
20%
40%
60%
eet F
uel E
ffic
Jets - 4%Trucks - 6%
0%
20%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Fle
Modeling the Energy Transition:
US & Canada: Energy Transition Scenarios > Oil ConstrainedTruck Miles > Depletion + Mitigation
140
160
180
CO2 Neutral
80
100
120
140
vs. 2
005
CO2 Neutral
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
CO2 Neutral Electric Rail
20
40
60% v CO2 Neutral
Bio-FuelsTar Sands & Coal Liquids
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Road Capacity Required for Trucks:Do we have as much road space today as we will ever need?
Using scenarios to plan...
Historic Global Oil Production
Using scenarios to plan...
Historic Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios
Using scenarios to plan...
Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios
Me
My Kids
Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use
Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors
Condo Towers
Parking Garages
Sewer Systems
Condo Towers
Using scenarios to plan...
Global Oil Production
Future Scenarios
The infrastructure we’re building today will be serving us in a post-oil, climate constrained future.
We need to use scenarios to test the value of our
Highways & Highway Oriented Land-Use
Transit & Heavy Rail Corridors
investments, and avoid building stranded assets.
Condo Towers
Parking Garages
Sewer Systems
Condo Towers
Using scenarios to plan...
Will your project serve you past 2012?
> Use scenario based planning to test your investment
Using scenarios to plan...
This economic projection is beingThis economic projection is being used as a justification for a major highway expansion project in British Columbia.
www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
We’ll label this Scenario 1
Using scenarios to plan...
• Rising fuel and construction costs
• Intermittent fuel and power shortages
R idl E di ‘G C ll ’ S t• Rapidly Expanding ‘Green Collar’ Sector
• Turbulent Stock Market
• Weird Weather
Using scenarios to plan...
• Carbon / Fuel Rationing
• Massive Refugee Influx
U d l ti R i• Undulating Recessions
• Aging Infrastructure Breakdown
• Rising Sea Levelsg
Using scenarios to plan...
2021
Truck Miles in
+50%
Miles in 2021
Now we can put theseNow we can put these 3 projections side-by-side to test the resilience of our investment.
www.th.gov.bc.ca/gateway
Using scenarios to plan...
2021
Truck Miles inMiles in
2021
+50%
-10%3 Plausible Futures
-30%
3 Plausible Futures
The key questions:
I d iIs new road capacity the best way to spend billions?
Could we spend that money on something else that pays us back in all futures?
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
ManyMany potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration
f li t hof climate change
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
ManyMany potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration
f li t hof climate change
* Gas to Coal Switching* Coal to Liquids Coal to Liquids* Tar Sands and Shale* Forest Removal for Biofuels
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many strategiesMany Many strategies for addressing climate change
do nothing to reduce il d d
Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration
f li t h oil dependenceof climate change
* Gas to Coal Switching* Coal to Liquids Coal to Liquids* Tar Sands and Shale* Forest Removal for Biofuels
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
Many strategiesMany Many strategies for addressing climate change
do nothing to reduce il d d
Many potential responses to peak oil could lead to a disastrous acceleration
f li t h oil dependenceof climate change
* Emissions Trading* Forestry Based Offsets
* Gas to Coal Switching* Coal to Liquids Forestry Based Offsets
* Atmospheric Carbon Capture Coal to Liquids
* Tar Sands and Shale* Forest Removal for Biofuels
Energy Transition: Setting Priorities
+
We need to prioritizeWe need to prioritize strategies that
reduce bothemissions andemissions and
oil dependence
=
Energy Transition Strategies
