Current Topics at EIA€¦ · Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160...
Transcript of Current Topics at EIA€¦ · Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160...
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 1
U.S. Association for Energy Economics November 20, 2009, Washington, DC
Richard Newell, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration
Current Topics at EIA
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 2
Overview
• EIA mission
• U.S. natural gas developments
• Energy and Financial Markets Initiative
• Climate policy analysis
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 3
EIA mission, resources, and core functions
Mission: Independent Statistics and Analysis– EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial
energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.
Current resources: $111 million; 375 FTEsEIA Budget by Function
53%
32%
15%
Information Collectionand Management
Analysis andForecasting
InformationDissemination
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 4
U.S. natural gas shale plays
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 5
Horizontal shale gas rig counts slowed, but have rebounded
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Barnett
Woodford
Fayetteville
Haynesville
Marcellus
Max Count Min Count
Source: Smith International
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0102030405060708090
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
MarcellusHaynesvilleWoodfordFayettevilleBarnettAntrim
*Estimated
Billion cubic meters
Production in key gas shale plays is growing rapidly
Source: Energy Information Administration and Lippmann Consulting, Inc.
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 7
Year-end domestic gas reserves increased 3% in 2008, despite higher production and lower prices
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Dry
Nat
ural
Gas
(Tcf
)
New
Fie
ldD
isco
verie
s
New
Res
ervo
irsin
Old
Fie
lds
Exte
nsio
ns
2008
Dry
Gas
Prod
uctio
n
Net
Rev
isio
ns
Adj
ustm
ents
238Tcf
245Tcf1.2
1.6 26.7
(3.1) 0.9
Net
of S
ales
& A
cqui
sitio
ns
0.2
(20.5)Prov
ed R
eser
ves
2007
Prov
ed R
eser
ves
2008
Total Discoveries 29.5
Total Reserves Additions 27.5
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Dry
Nat
ural
Gas
(Tcf
)
New
Fie
ldD
isco
verie
s
New
Res
ervo
irsin
Old
Fie
lds
Exte
nsio
ns
2008
Dry
Gas
Prod
uctio
n
Net
Rev
isio
ns
Adj
ustm
ents
238Tcf
245Tcf1.2
1.6 26.7
(3.1) 0.9
Net
of S
ales
& A
cqui
sitio
ns
0.2
(20.5)Prov
ed R
eser
ves
2007
Prov
ed R
eser
ves
2008
Total Discoveries 29.5
Total Reserves Additions 27.5
Source: Energy Information Administration
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 8
New technologies also force a reassessment of gas resources
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1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
1988
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1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
PG
C R
esou
rce
Est
imat
es (T
cf)
SpeculativePossibleProbable
Source: Potential Gas Committee
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 9
02468
10121416
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Henry Hub spotSTEO Henry Hub forecastNYMEX futures prices68% NYMEX confidence interval95% NYMEX confidence interval
Dollars per million Btu
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2009
History Projections
Henry Hub spot prices remain highly uncertain
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 10
020406080
100120140160180200
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
WTI spotSTEO WTI forecastNYMEX futures prices68% NYMEX confidence interval95% NYMEX confidence interval
Dollars per million Btu
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2009
History Projections
Expected near term WTI oil price is flat, but highly uncertain
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 11
Oil prices relate to many uncertain factors
Speculation, hedging, investment
Speculation, hedging, investment
Global economic growth
Global economic growth
OPEC production decisions
OPEC production decisions
Exchange rates and inflation
Exchange rates and inflation
Spare production capacity
Spare production capacity
Global Oil Prices
Global Oil Prices
Non-OPEC supply growth
Non-OPEC supply growth InventoriesInventories
Geo-political risksGeo-political risks
WeatherWeather
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 12
EIA recently launched the Energy and Financial Markets Initiative to track all the factors affecting energy prices
1. Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency
Nov 2 Federal Register notice initiating additional petroleum storage capacity collection
Forthcoming FR notice requesting views on additional data needs, particularly for clarifying relationship among inventories-prices-financials
2. Analysis of energy and financial market dynamics
Oct rollout of implied volatility work
Improving existing products; special reports on factors affecting prices
3. Outreach to experts and the public
Nov 18 workshop; FR notices; Annual conference
4. Coordination with other Federal agencies
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 13
EIA Analysis of H.R.2454 The American Clean Energy and Security
Act of 2009
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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Reference CaseCovered Emissions, Reference CaseCap on Covered Emissions
Cumulative difference, 2012-2030 = 24.6 BMT
CO2 -equivalent emissions, billion metric tons
Use of Offsets = ? BMT
ACESA requires 24.6- billion-metric-ton reduction in covered GHG emissions over 2012-2030; actual reductions could be smaller or larger
depending on the use of offsets and banking behavior
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
Richard Newell, USAEE, November 2009 15
Main cases in EIA’s analysis
Case Name Assumptions
Basic Integrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of ACESA.
Zero BankSame as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond 2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy technology breakthroughs with significant market impacts after 2030
High Offsets Same as Basic but assumes increased use of international offsets.
High Cost Same as Basic but assumes that nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass gasification costs are 50 % higher
No International Same as Basic but assumes international offsets are too expensive or unable to meet the requirements for use
No International / LimitedSame as Basic but limits additions of nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass to reference case levels. Also no international offsets.
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
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Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational
NoInt'l/Limited
Energy-Related CO2 Carbon Capture and StorageNon-Energy-CO2 covered emissions Offsets, BiosequestrationOffsets, Noncovered emissions Offsets, International - - - - - Required Abatement - - - - -
Energy sector reductions (2 bottom sections) vary with availability of offsets and low-emitting generation options
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
Cumulative compliance, 2012-2030 (billion metric tons)
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Basic Zero Bank High Offsets
High Cost No International No Int / Limited
Projected allowance prices depend on the availability of offsets and low/no carbon electricity generation technologies
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(2007 dollars per metric ton CO2 -equivalent)
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561 576 534 543 543 527 519 494
987 955 855 879 880 847 815 779
2009 2037 1952 1985 1986 1942 1915 1868
2433 2639
10741886 1831 1573
384 908
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2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational
No Int /Limited
Electric Pow erTransportationIndustrialBuildings
2030
The electricity sector dominates projected reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(million metric tons CO2)
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2021 2296
8411650 1593 1281
100 285
015
513
262 304293
440 15
892976
636
708 713880
5921638
806890
15481147 1151 923
1863 890
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1021 979 987974
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2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank HighOffsets
High Cost NoInterational
No Int /Limited
Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w /CCS Nuclear Renew able
2030 generation shifts from conventional coal to nuclear, renewables, and fossil+CCS; natural gas use grows
dramatically if other options are limited
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(billion kilowatthours)
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Electricity capacity additions dominated by mix of nuclear, renewables, fossil+CCS, but natural gas is larger if those options are limited
(thousand megawatts)
69 35 39
125 4255 53 82 46
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13581
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93 95116
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Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational
No Int /Limited
RenewableNuclearNatural Gas with CCSNatural Gas
Coal with CCSCoal
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
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0.90%
0.64% 0.72% 0.72%0.57% 0.56%
0.21%
2.39%
1.15%
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1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1990 to 2000 2000 to 2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational
No Int /Limited
2007 to 2030 Growth
Efficiency programs and higher electricity prices reduce electricity demand growth
Annual percent growth in electricity use
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
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Reference Basic Zero Bank
High Offsets High Cost No International
No Int / Limited
Electricity prices stay near baseline through 2025 in all but one case, then rise to higher levels through 2030
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
(2007 cents per kilowatthour, all sectors average)
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0Undiscounted Present Value @ 4%
BasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
Cumulative Change in Real GDP Real GDP
15398
19875
15348
19714
15380
19771
15373
19755
15328
19661
15365
19649
15286
19422
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20000
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ReferenceBasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
Cumulative Change in Real Consumption Real Consumption
-896
-566-736
-432
-829
-523
-1249
-781
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0Undiscounted Present Value @ 4%
BasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
10817
14069
10796
14006
10810
14033
10806
14019
10787
13972
10802
14000
10753
13889
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ReferenceBasicZero BankHigh OffsetHigh CostNo InternationalNo Int/Limited
Present-value GDP losses over 2012-2030 range from 0.2% to 0.4%; consumption losses range from 0.1% to 0.3% in 5 analysis cases. Impacts are
much higher in the No International/Limited Alternatives case.
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For more information
Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.doe.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
International Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
Monthly Energy Review www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html
U.S. Energy Information Administrationwww.eia.doe.gov