Current tendencies and main drivers for the Térraba River Basin, the Greater Kruger Park, the...

LIVELIHOODS AND BIODIVERSITY

FUTURES

Current tendencies and main drivers for the Térraba River Basin, the Greater Kruger Park, the Warana River Basin, Ba Be National Park and Na Hang Natural Reserve.

By Alexander López and the team from WP8

Universidad NacionalCosta Rica

What is an scenario?

A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold based on if-then proposition and typically consists of a representation of an initial situation and a description of the key driving forces and changes that lead to a particular future state.

Universidad Nacional, Escuela de Relaciones Internacionales 2

Main elements for building scenarios

TYPE OF SCENARIOS

BUSINESS AS USUAL

FAST DEVELOPM

ENT

POLICY OR INTERVENTI

ON

CRISIS

Types of scenarios

Business as usual are constructed based on future expectations of continuing present trends

Fast development is constructed base on the improvement of current tendencies

The crisis scenario is constructed on how condition might expect to deteriorate from the present state

Policy scenario refers to the future effects of one given policy on drivers

The story line

A storyline is a narrative description of a scenario, which highlights its main features and the relationships between the scenarios driving forces and its main features.

Scen

ario O

utline –

[Cas

e stu

dy] Improved livelihoods

Low

bio

dive

rsity

High biodiversity

What are the (cultural-spiritual, socio-economic, and environmental) drivers that influence the relationship between biodiversity conservation

and sustainable livelihoods?

What are the (cultural-spiritual, socio-economic, and environmental) drivers that influence the relationship between biodiversity conservation

and sustainable livelihoods?

Reduced livelihoods

Fast development Policy

Crisis Business as usual

The Grande de Térraba River Basin (Costa Rica)

Main elements explaining current tendencies

Foreign oriented market economy.

Development of infrastructure.

Environmental change.

Low level of human development.

Main biophysical drivers

Protected areas (terrestrial reserves)

Land change cover (vegetation cover)

Population growth.

Main socio-economic drivers

Infrastructure development.

Unemployment .

Agriculture production.

Tourism and real state development.

Main cultural drivers

External exposure ( handicraft).

Dependency on natural resources.

Syncretism in cultural practices.

Land use and land change

A main concern is the trend of ownership passing to foreign investors through the purchase of lands by developers or international real estate firms looking to build large-scale residential complexes or hotels which constitute an abrupt and extreme change in land-use and demand on natural resources.

Protected areas

A total of 18 protected areas are located within the Grande de Térraba River basin, making up 37.4% of the catchment´s territory .

The International Friendship Park located within the upper and middle sections of the basin, is the largest protected area stretching from the limits of Chirripo National Park (Costa Rica) to the Panamanian border.

Protected areas

The Térraba-Sierpe National Wetlands has a great biological variety that supports the subsistence of surrounding communities. The wetland contains the largest and most significant quantity and variety of mangroves in Costa Rica.

The wetlands are also important to the non-indigenous communities living in and around the park area who depend on raising livestock and the extraction of shellfish species like piangua, (Anadara tuberculosa).

Population growth

Census data from 1973, 1985 and 2000 shows that the Basin has experienced population growth of approximately 50.6% over the past 35 years .

Population density in the year 2000 was around 31.9 inhabitants per square kilometer, a relatively low density when compared to the national average of 87 inhabitants per square kilometer .

The area has been historically used for agriculture, especially extensive farming with a foreign oriented model, which, over the years, has altered the natural landscape of the zone.

Pineapple is the recent example. PINDECO produced around 65% of the pineapple. Starting in 1990 the company transformed from simple production and began purchasing portions of the export crops from local independent growers.

Agriculture development: Pineapple Production as a driver

Agriculture development: Pineapple and oil palm

The pineapple industry in the Brunca Region currently accounts for about 21% of national production, with a total of 10,815 hectares of plantations and has gone from its place as the number one zone for pineapple production to the fourth largest producer in today’s national market.

The introduction of African Oil Palms as cultivars (Elaeis guineensis) has had a positive impact on the area’s economy, absorbing labor that would have otherwise been unoccupied after the disappearance of the large banana and cacao companies

Infrastructure and the Diquís Hydroelectric Project

The Diquís Hydroelectric Plant, PHED, will be the largest dam in Central America, with a reservoir measuring about 6,815 hectares, of which 800 hectares are currently classified as indigenous territories.

Approximately 1,100 people must be relocated to higher ground within the basin in order for the project to go forward

The Diquís Project has budgeted financial compensation for those displaced, but the cultural and social attachment of these inhabitants to their lands remains a significant factor of opposition to the project, with many claiming that their identity would be lost if they were forced to be relocated.

Infrastructure and the Diquís Hydroelectric Project

Consequences for agriculture in the Basin with the construction of the Diquís Hydroelectric Project would be concentrated mainly in modifications of land-use.

Agricultural and livestock production would be most affected by the flooding of certain areas used for permanent and seasonal crops, as well as grazing zones for cattle.

Tourism and real Estate Development(Immovable Property Development, Fixed Capital

Development)

The case study area has been greatly impacted by real estate development along the Costeña Ridge.

From January 2007 to September 2008 the amount of construction permits granted has grown 202%, from around 100 per year to over 735 construction projects in a span of approximately 20 months.

This real estate “boom” is indicative of a lack of control and regulation on the part of Osa’s municipal government (Redondo y Villalobos, 2008).

Poverty and unemployment

Socioeconomic indicators for the Brunca Region indicate very low levels of development, due to socioeconomic problems that have impacted the area over the past 25 years, including the closure of the banana company.

The Brunca Region today is the poorest area of Costa Rica, with 40.4% of the population living below the poverty line.

Poverty and unemployment

Wages within the Grande de Térraba Basin are among the lowest in the country, with an average monthly income of around USD $150. The national average for monthly income is USD $554 (MIDEPLAN 2008).

This disparity reflects the quality of employment available within the area of study, where benefits and job stability are volatile or nonexistent.

Cultural-spiritual drivers

Cultural and spiritual value systems are very closely related to the way of life with a community, that is to say forms of subsistence and adaptation to uncertainty and vulnerability.

Value systems are subject to change over time.

Cultural drivers

A first element is exposure that in cultural terms refers to external elements that have a direct impact in the way of life and natural resource base for the subsistence of this population.

The external exposure can be seen in the fact that Costa Rican indigenous communities are quite integrated in national and international markets for livestock production and the service sector, especially those related to tourism.

Cultural drivers

A second element is syncretism can be seen in the belief systems. Thus, Sibü (Translation of God in Boroca language) Cúastram who is a solar deity who can only be seen by the chiefs.

But ,when the question was asked about Who or what create nature…they say God, he is the only one that can make everything.

Autonomous communities with traditional belief systems have found themselves integrating market processes, and a new susceptibility to values based on the accumulation of wealth and consumption

Cultural drivers

A third element is dependency on natural resources which can be seen in the production of handicraft.

Handicraft is one of the principal productive activities in the Boruca community, employing the majority of the working population.

The “overproduction” of craft items also has a negative impact on the environment, contributing to the scarcity of natural resources used in their fabrication, such as dyes extracted from mangrove trees as well as from mollusks native to the littoral zone.

Cultural drivers

The production of Boruca textiles is an economic activity maintained by many artisans who use pigments extracted from plants and trees as well as from shellfish and sea snails in order to create their own home-made dyes.

The traditional cultural practice of extraction of natural pigments and dye-making take place in two areas: gardens or cultivated areas where plants and flowers were extracted within indigenous settlements, and the seashore, outside of settlement areas.


Poverty and socio economic stagnation mainly in the Vhembe District.

Agriculture development .

Water shortage and water competition.

Health problems related to HIV-Aids.

Biophysical driving forces

Water shortage and water competition.

Land use change

Eco-tourism potential

Socio-economic driving forces

Poverty and unemployment.

HIV-Aids.

Poor local governance.

Cultural driving forces

Role of religion and traditions

Dependency on natural resources

Old ways of life versus new one (tradition vrs modernity)

Land use as biophysical driver

The Luvhuvhu Catchment can be divided into the following four main areas based on land tenure and type of land use practice 1) Agriculture; 2) Forestry; 3) Rural settlements; and 4) the natural reserve


The upper catchment is characterized by its large scale commercial farming (e.g., irrigated crops, dry land crops, and rangeland cattle production), and forestry (mostly state-owned plantations in the upper catchment).

Conservation areas (including the Kruger National Park) are found in the lower reaches of the river and the middle and lower reaches of the catchment is so-called communal areas.


Intensive irrigation farming is practiced in the upper Luvuvhu River catchment. Thirteen percent (13%) of the catchment are privately owned commercial farms while the majority of plantations, with the exception of a few small ones, are state-owned.

Approximately 2.8% of the catchment area is covered with commercial forestry estates and indigenous forests.

Approximately 35% of the land area in the lower portion of the area falls within the Kruger National Park

Water competition and shortage in the Limpopo river basin

There are two main issues:

The quantity of water which relates to the imbalance between the supply and demand for water which in turn also speaks to the effect of floods and droughts

The water quality which speaks to the inappropriate land uses in the river valleys, the impact of fertilizers and pesticides as well as the high concentrations of pit latrines in certain areas

The competition dynamics of water resources in the catchment is not solely due to transboundary competition between the neighboring countries.

Large-scale commercial farming and small-scale farming, uneven rainfall patterns, agriculture and urban demand, as well as over-utilization and pollution by various sectors are part and parcel of the predicament

Over utilization of water resources and pollution arising from high-density urban settlements, mining and other industrial development are seen to have an impact on the social, economic, political and natural environments downstream.

Water competition and shortage in the Limpopo river basin

Tourism

The Kruger National park is one of the largest tourist attractions in South Africa and forms the eastern border of the study area.

Makuya National park is another conservation area where tourists can do game driving and until recently hosted hunting.

Poverty and unemployment as driver

The population of Vhembe is 98.74% black. Given the history of South Africa (Apartheid), 99% of the people living in Vhembe can be classified as Previously Disadvantaged People.

About 813,467 people are classified as poor, which amounts to 65.2% of the total population of Vhembe

Poverty and unemployment as driver

The main sectors that employ people from the Vhembe District are government and agriculture. In addition, mining and tourism are two of the most important economic sectors.

The unemployment rate for Vhembe District

stood at 49% in 2006. It rose to this level from 47.7% in 1996. At the provincial level the rate of unemployment rose from 44.4% in 1996 to 45.1% in 2006.

HIV/ Aids While the situation in the Mutale River valley is

not well known, HIV/AIDS is known to severely affect subsistence agriculture, adding significantly to the problems of agriculture and food security.

For subsistence agriculture, production depends very heavily on labour and in poor rural households, AIDS causes severe labour and economic constraints that disrupt agricultural activities and aggravate food insecurity.

Agriculture development of smallholders and large scale

commercial farmers

Limpopo is one of the country’s prime agricultural regions recognized for the production of a large variety of products and can be said that is very likely that continue playing an important role for agriculture development in the near future.

Of the total land area in Limpopo of 11 960 600 ha, farmland constitutes about 88.2%, while arable land comprises 14% estimated that there were about 5000 commercial farming units in the Province.

Governance conflicts One area to see the governance problem is the

management of the Makuya park because the government and the community representatives had very different views in terms of management of the park. The main objective of the tribal authorities was (is) to obtain payment of rents.

The aim of the provincial government on the other hand was quite the opposite. To hand responsibility of the Park over to the local communities and with that end the government’s responsibility for rent, wages and other costs associated with running it.

Governance conflicts Land tenure is a example of governance problems. In the tribal

areas, chiefs and headmen are responsible for the allocation of land to individuals as well as the demarcation of land. However, in areas under the jurisdiction of the municipality (such as Thohoyandou), individuals can purchase land and obtain private ownership.

The demise of the Apartheid state and the abolition of the

homeland government led to the re-assertion of the autonomy of individual chiefdoms in the Venda region. Renewed emphasis was placed on the independence of each Venda chiefdom.

Today, Venda is still made up of 25 traditional authorities, each constituting a separate Chiefdom.

Cultural-spiritual drivers The role of beliefs involving natural resources.

Fors instance the legend of the python god who lives in the Lake who cares for their crops.

The Phiphidi Waterfalls is also a well known sacred site of the Vhavenda as well as the Big Tree which is the world’s oldest and biggest Baobab tree.

Cultural-spiritual drivers Dependency on natural resources. Many local chiefs

make a point to support older traditions which make provision for the control and monitoring of the use of natural resources, particularly the use of wood for firewood, the use of roots and plants for medicinal purposes.

For instance: Some tree species may not be brought home Some trees are planted to protect the

homestead Important trees that may not be cut (fruit

trees, trees that attract rain)

WARANA RIVER BASIN (INDIA)


Expansion of market economy.

Increasing conflicts and contestation

Non-inclusive policy

Increasing identity politics.


Land use changes.

Population density.

Changing rainfall patterns.


Expansion of market economy.

Infrastructure development .

Human animal conflicts.

Increasing identity politics.


Agriculture traditions (rice)

Religious practices

Traditional law…Dependency on natural resources

Land use changes

Zone 1 which forms the western part of the basin is mostly covered with forest, Zone 2, the central portion, has agricultural land along with wastelands; and Zone 3, the eastern part of the basin, is predominantly agricultural land.

Rainfall variation

The rainfall pattern in the area is highly variable. The rainfall is very high in the Western parts of the basin adjoining Konkan and comprising the Western Ghat portion of the basin and falls rapidly as we traverse from West to East.

Population Density

According to the 2001 census the population density increases as we go from the West to the East within the basin. Zone 1, the Westernmost portion of the basin had a population density of about 130 persons/sq km while Zone 3, the easternmost portion had a population density of about 530 persons/sq.

In terms of population growth, the average growth rate is about 14%, with Zone 1 showing lowest and Zone 2 showing the highest growth rate between 1991 and 2001.

Human animal conflicts

The declaration of Chandoli National Park has increased human-animal conflicts, basically because crops are trampled or eaten by animals.

In the past, the number of animals entering fields was significantly less according to respondents, and the increase of wildlife is making life difficult for them.

Farming and the expansion of the market economy.

Farming is the main livelihood avenue for the people in the basin as agriculture has been the most important economic activity. Nearly 70 per cent of the working population is engaged in agriculture.

The expansion of the market economy can be seen in zone 3 where commercial farming is dominant. Here sugarcane is the dominant cash crop.

There is a distinct class of rich farmers or capitalist farmers who are also in the process of accumulating more and more agricultural land. Irrigation percentage is high.

Infrastructure development

The Warana dam is the major dam in the area with a height of approximately 77 m from the river bed. Its catchment area is around 301 sq km.

Another important dam on Potphugi river (a tributory of Kadavi) is known as the Kadvi dam. There are also two smaller irrigation projects are in Paleshwar.

The role of religion

Majority of the people in Warana basin follow Hindu religion. Hindu religion believes in re-birth and ones actions in this world would determine what form the life would take in the re-birth.

Another important demarcating feature is its belief in social hierarchy and the caste system is closely associated with the religion (and also access to natural resources) and at the top of the hierarchy are the Brahmins.

Neo-Budhists constitutes another important religious grouping in the basin. They are economically very poor as most of them are landless and constitute the major section of the landless labour population in the basin.

The role of religion

Over the last two decades or so there has been an increase in the outward expressions of religion in the sense of public performance of religious rituals and festivals.

But this does not mean that there is an increase in religiosity or spirituality, because there is an increasing element of commercialization amongst almost all religions in the way they celebrate their festivals. One driver of this is that religion has become an important political constituency and most of the main stream political parties.

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOOD AND BIODIVERSITY IN VIETNAM

CURRENT TENDENCIES AND DRIVERS OF BA BE NATIONAL PARK AND NA HANG

NATURAL RESERVE


Even though it is difficult to point out the same current tendencies for the two areas, it can be said that

Agriculture dependency Poverty Development of infrastructure and Tourism potential are the fours common

current tendencies for the two areas.


Intensive agriculture and changing crop pattern.

Forest development (cover and loss) and encroachment .

Eco-tourism potential.


Infrastructure development.

Governance of the protected areas.

Poverty.


Changes in local behavior (tradition vrs modernity).

Nomadic practices and shifting cultivation patterns.

Diversity of ethnic groups

Forest cover

Production forests are allocated to local communities. The threat to biodiversity comes from forest fire and cutting forest for making fields.

According to the government the forest cover will be above 70% by 2020 en Ba Be and 60% in Na Hang.

The idea in both cases is to promote doing business in forest. A combination between forest management and proper forest exploitation.

Agriculture dependency

The main driver in both areas is agriculture development, people living in Na Hang and Ba Be have a strong dependency on agriculture and this is expected to continue in the near future.

Income mostly rely on wet rice plantation. Apart from rice, maize is important crop.

However, in term of scenarios it is important to pay attention to changes in crop patterns and there is a government plan to restructure rural economy towards commodity production.

Tourism

In the ecotourism marketplace, Ba Be National Park competes directly with other nature tourism destinations in northern Vietnam, they are Halong Bay (Cat Ba National Park) and the hill tribes of Sa Pa near Lao Cai.

Ba Be’s two best comparative advantages are likely to be the spectacular natural beauty of Lake and the superior manner in which ecotourism in the Park is organised. .

Tourism

There are also other opportunities for soft adventure options, such as canoeing and kayaking itineraries and a spectrum of multi-day hiking trails that will involve local people and support conservation objectives.

The ecotourism potential of Na Hang Nature Reserve lies almost exclusively in the opportunities for domestic visits to Pac Ban Lake and Waterfall. Location factors and resource constraints make it unlikely that Na Hang Nature Reserve itself be considered for either international or domestic tourism. The Lake has been created by a man-made hydro dam and is therefore of little significance in terms of conservation values.

Poverty as a driver

Poverty is also a common factor in these two areas, however the poverty rate in the Ba Be District is quite high in comparison with Bak Kan Province.

Poverty rate for Ba Be is 54.89% and for Na Hang is 33.19%. The government plan is that after 2010, every year poverty will be reduced by 1.5 – 2% .

Poverty as a driver

Some of the main reason explaining poverty in both zones are first, the lack of land production of rice and maize, so people try to expand their production area, even burning forest for cultivation if the authorities do not take control strictly.

A second factor is the lack of knowledge and a third factor is capital shortage.

Infrastructure development

Road network in those areas is a priority.

The other item in term of infraestructre development is dam construction in Na Hang, Tuyen Quang province started in very large scale the electricity production with the dam on the Gam River.

Governance

The consolidation of Na Han as a National Park The possible merging of the two parks

and increased benefits from tourism are likely to result in changes in park management.

The government goal of having projects on production forest development in every districts, as well as project on protection forest development until 2020 will have an impact on the governance structure of these areas.

Etnicity

Ethnicity (5 main ethnic groups) in Ba Be and four major ethnic group in Na Han.

In the province of Bac Kan, the Viet people live in flat and mainlands, featured by wet-rice civilazation. The Tay people (60% of total province’s population) live along springs, livelihood mainly by wet-rice and maize plantation. The Dao people live in mid-mountains, the H’Mong people live in high mountains, the Hoa people live in towns and populous areas, doing business, trade.

In Tuyen Quang there are many ethnic minority groups such as Tày (34.5%), Dao (26.2%), H’Mông (11.6%).

Thanks

Alexander López R. Ph.DUniversidad Nacional

Costa [email protected]

+ (506) 25.62.41.65

mailto:[email protected]

Current tendencies and main drivers for the Térraba River Basin, the Greater Kruger Park, the...

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