CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL...
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CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE USES OF THE CLIMATE USES OF THE CLIMATE INFORMATION IN THE INFORMATION IN THE
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM OF CENTRAL ARGENTINACENTRAL ARGENTINA
Marta G. VINOCUR, Marta G. VINOCUR, Andrea V. Andrea V. RIVAROLARIVAROLA and and Roberto A. Roberto A.
SEILERSEILERUUNIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-NIVERSITY OF RÍO CUARTO-ArgentinaArgentina
Paper prepared for Open Meeting of Global Environmental Change Research
Community
6-8 October 2001
OBJOBJEECTIVESCTIVES To understand how climate information is To understand how climate information is
actually used and may be used in the actually used and may be used in the future by policymakers and end users, to future by policymakers and end users, to improve decisiones in the agricultural improve decisiones in the agricultural sector and to mitigate the negative impact sector and to mitigate the negative impact of climate hazardsof climate hazards
To know stakeholders perception of To know stakeholders perception of climate risks and how they incorporate climate risks and how they incorporate climate information in their decision-climate information in their decision-making process, according to the political making process, according to the political context and to the underlying level of context and to the underlying level of farmers’ vulnerability farmers’ vulnerability
Materials and MethodsMaterials and Methods In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid In each municipio (county), we conducted a rapid
appraisal to determine the range of variation in appraisal to determine the range of variation in farm type and size, access to resources, farm type and size, access to resources, infrastructure, etc through interviewing key infrastructure, etc through interviewing key informant and focus-group.informant and focus-group.
A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% A random sample of farmers (approximately 10% of the total number) was chosen for individual of the total number) was chosen for individual interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in interviews (survey) reflecting the differences in farm/households types.farm/households types.
Qualified groups, according to decision making Qualified groups, according to decision making levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local levels (grain dealers, cooperative managers, local utilities providers, regional farmers consortium utilities providers, regional farmers consortium managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also managers, municipio authorities, etc.), were also interviewed.interviewed.
MMaterials and Methodsaterials and MethodsSurveySurvey
Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm Socio-economic characteristics of each household/farm (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, (farm size, farm type, tenure, technology applied, access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.)access to capital, off-farm income, education, etc.)
Importance and sources of weather information; users’ Importance and sources of weather information; users’ knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to knowledge of regional climate; users’ attitudes to climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the climate and weather forecast; users’ perception of the value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, value of climate forecast (credibility, ability to respond, etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and etc.); users’ preferences about timing, format and content of a climate forecast. content of a climate forecast.
Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using Surveys’ compilation and data analysis were done using an statistical package (SPSS).an statistical package (SPSS).
Socio-economic characteristicsSocio-economic characteristics
Farmers’ ageFarmers’ age 30-45 years 30-45 years 29%29%
45-60 years 45%45-60 years 45%
> 60 years> 60 years 21%21%Education levelEducation level Primary Primary 51%51%
HighHigh 26%26%
Univer.Univer. 21%21%Farm sizeFarm size > 2000 ha> 2000 ha 4 % 4 %
500-2000 ha500-2000 ha42%42%
250-500 ha250-500 ha 33%33%
< 250 ha< 250 ha 21%21%
Socio-economic characteristicsSocio-economic characteristics Farm typeFarm type Mixed typeMixed type > agric.> agric. 35%35%
> livestock> livestock 25%25%
equalequal 30%30%soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%soybean 88%;maize 96%; peanut 26%
Land tenureLand tenure owner owner 93%93%
tenanttenant 3% 3% Rent more landRent more land 55%55%Request of creditRequest of credit 50%50%Applied technology Applied technology crop rotationcrop rotation 100%100%
no tillno till 46%46%
hybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicidehybrid seeds+pesticide+herbicide 95%95%
irrigationirrigation 3%; 3%; fertilizersfertilizers 59%59%
Type of climate information
received by the farmer
16.2%
18.1%
61.9%
3.8%None
Climate+Weather For.
Weather Forecast
Climate Forecast
Age
> 6045-6030-4515-30
Per
cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Information
None
Weather+Climate For.
Weather Forecast
Climate Forecast
Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers Age
Weather and Climate Information Related to Farmers’ education level
Eduaction-head of the family
Univ. Comp.
Univ. Incomp.
High Comp.
High Incom.
Primary Comp.
Primary Incomp.
Pe
rce
nt
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Information
None
Weather+Climate For
Weather Forecast
Climate Forecast
Farmer's perception of ENSO impactson regional climate
Farmer's perception
Never heard about them
Not understand impact
Niño<rain-Niña>rain
Niño>rain-Niña<rain
Pe
rce
nt
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
17
11
67
Age
> 6045-6030-4515-30
Per
cent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Farmers'perception
Never heard
Not understand
Niño<rain-Niña>rain
Niño >rain-Niña<rain
Farmer’s perception of ENSO impacts related to age
How much does climate information
influence farmer's management decisions
not at allsomewhatmoderatelystrongly
Perc
ent
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
9
20
58
13
Age
> 6045-6030-4515-30
Perc
ent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Influence
Not at all
somewhat
Moderately
Strongly
Influence of climate information on farmers’ managemet decisiones related to farmers’age
Influence of climate information on farmers’ management decisiones related to farmers’education
level
Level of education-Head of the family
Univ. Com.
Univ. Incom.
High Com.
High Incom.
Primary Comp.
Primary Incom.
Pe
rce
nt
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Influence
Not at all
Somewhat
Moderately
Strongly
Weather and climate forecast: farmers' credibility
Improve cred.
None are credible
Weather-High cred.
Weather-Clim
ate Cred
Climate:No credible
Climate-less cred.
Climate-high cred.
Per
cent
40
30
20
10
0
9
14
33
89
27
Weather and climate forecast: obstacles to their use
5.8%
15.4%
3.8%
8.7%
1.9%
5.8%
58.7%
Lack of interest
Not credibles
Bad distr.channels
Very general
Tables/charts unclear
Difficult to understand
None
Farmers' management decisions are also
influenced by:
none
Exp. prices and prod
Exp.Nat.-Int. prices
Exp.National Prices
Per
cent
30
20
10
0
30
25
2323
Age
> 6045-6030-4515-30
Perc
ent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Information
None
Prices + production
Nat.+Inter. prices
National prices
Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’age
Other information used in management decisions related to farmers’ education level
Level of education-head of the family
Univ. Comp.
Univ. Incomp
High Comp.
High Incomp.
Primary Comp.
Primary Incomp.
Pe
rce
nt
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Information
None
Prices + production
Nat. + int. prices
National prices
Which decisions would you probably Which decisions would you probably change in response to a climate change in response to a climate
forecast:forecast: crop mix (area planted)crop mix (area planted) 54%54% plant densityplant density 76%76% pesticide and fertlizer amountpesticide and fertlizer amount 55%55% planting dateplanting date 69%69% other typeother type 2% 2%
Characteristics of an useful climate forecastCharacteristics of an useful climate forecast TimingTiming ContentContent: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat.: spring rainfall; spring rainfall+summer temperat. FormatFormat: means; means+actual data;comparison with past : means; means+actual data;comparison with past
years; above normal, near normal or below normal with years; above normal, near normal or below normal with the associated probabilities.the associated probabilities.Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - Graphs only - 37%; tables only - 8%; tables and graphs - 43%; explanations - 11%43%; explanations - 11%
Age
> 6045-6030-4515-30
Count
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Obstacles to inf.use
Lack of interes
Not credibles
Bad distr. channels
Very general
Tables/charts unclea
Diffic to understand
None
Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ age
Weather and climate information, obstacles to their use related to farmers’ education level
Level of education-head of the family
Univ. comp.
Univ. incomp.
High comp.
High incomp.
Primary comp.
Primary incomp.
Pe
rce
nt
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Obstacles to inf.use
Lack of interest
Not credibles
Bad distr. channel
Very general
Tables/chart unclear
Diffic to understand
None
Type of climate information received
by qualified groups
None
Other type
Climate+Weather for.
Weather forecast
Pe
rce
nt
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
15
29
53
Utility of the received climate information
by qualified groups
Preventive actions
General use
Livestock market str
Grain dealers strat.
Personal
None
Pe
rce
nt
40
30
20
10
0
23
37
7
17
10
7
Dissemination of the climate information
by qualified groups
6.7%
33.3%
6.7%10.0%
43.3%
None
Internal use
General Public
Farmers
Other inst. and prevention agencies
How qualified groups disseminate
climate information?
27.8%
5.6%
55.6%
11.1%Massive comm.media
Fax
Meetings-conferences
Bulletins-booklets
Weather and Climate Forecast: Obstacles to their use
by qualified groups
5.9%
5.9%
17.6%
2.9%67.6%
Lack of credibility
Bad distrib. channel
Very general
Not clearNone
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
Users of climate and weather information required:Users of climate and weather information required: Forecast tailored to their needsForecast tailored to their needs Improve accuracy, timing and formatImprove accuracy, timing and format Downscale temporally and spatially to users’ Downscale temporally and spatially to users’
specific locationsspecific locationsTo promote climate forecast use, it is necessary:To promote climate forecast use, it is necessary: to improve users’ knowledge about regional to improve users’ knowledge about regional
weather and climateweather and climate to educate users about the differences between to educate users about the differences between
weather and climate forecasts.weather and climate forecasts. to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of to analyze institutional ways of dissemination of
climate informationclimate information to improve communication between researchers to improve communication between researchers
and end usersand end users